The Seattle Mariners fell tantalizingly short of making the 2014 postseason by just one game, which has led to high 2015 expectations by many in the national media and within the Mariners’ fan base. Many pundits and fans have hailed that the addition of slugger Nelson Cruz as the move that will get Seattle over the hump and into the postseason for the first time since 2001, while others believe that the team still needs one more bat to ensure contention.
While Cruz will certainly help Seattle improve and adding another slugger is a need, the Mariners need to improve at numerous positions in 2015. Otherwise, they’ll be no better than a fringe contender.
Reasons for optimism
It’s easy to see why there’s a positive outlook by so many when you look at the Mariners’ standing amongst American League (AL) teams that had 85 or more wins. Seattle was sixth overall in the AL for team-total wins above replacement (WAR) only trailing the five teams that made the postseason. That’s great and can be attributed to the team’s strong pitching staff, outstanding performance by Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager, and value delivered by the Brad Miller/Chris Taylor platoon at shortstop.
|WAR for 85+ Win AL Teams |
|Los Angeles Angels (LAA)||46.8 ||98 |
|Baltimore Orioles (BAL)||46.8||96 |
|Oakland Athletics (OAK)||45.6||88 |
|Detroit Tigers (DET)||41.5||90 |
|Kansas City Royals (KCR)||40.5 ||89 |
|Seattle Mariners (SEA)||39.5 ||87 |
|Cleveland Indians (CLE) ||38.2 ||85 |
Projecting Opening Day lineup
If no more significant moves are made and barring injury, it’s very plausible that Seattle’s 2015 Opening Day lineup could be very similar to the starting lineup for the last game of the 2014 season. The team will definitely have new faces at designated hitter (DH) and in right field (RH). Other than shortstop where Miller could start in place of Taylor, everyone else may be the same. Does anyone believe that changing those two faces will make Seattle a serious contender?
Mariners starting lineup on last day of 2014 season
CF Austin Jackson
LF Dustin Ackley
2B Robinson Cano
Kendrys Morales/Nelson Cruz
3B Kyle Seager
1B Logan Morrison
Michael Saunders/Justin Ruggiano
C Mike Zunino
SS Chris Taylor (Brad Miller could replace him)
SP Felix Hernandez
So, where does this team need to improve? Looking at a team’s WAR, by position, helps illuminate areas requiring improvement. In this article, WAR refers to the base-reference.com computation of a player’s value. The position value illustrated below incorporates every player who played that particular position during the 2014 season. The players’ contributions are pro-rated by the plate appearances (PA) they had while playing that position. For example, second base is calculated by including the values of Cano (630 PA), Willie Bloomquist (24), Nick Franklin (19), and Miller (15) who all played the position in 2014. Obviously, Cano’s value drive the positional value at second base. But, there are other positions such as first base, shortstop, and the outfield positions that had multiple players with significant playing time.
|Team WAR Value by Position (American League) |
|1||DET 16.5 ||CLE 8.2 ||CLE 5.5 ||DET 4.9 ||SEA 6.1||TEX 7.4 ||LAA 3.8 ||KCR 6.5 ||LAA 7.6 ||OAK 4.6 ||LAA 14.1 ||DET 4.9 |
|2||SEA 13.8 ||KCR 7.7 ||OAK 4.0 ||BAL 4.1 ||HOU 6.1 ||OAK 6.7 ||BAL 3.7 ||BAL 5.2 ||BAL 5.0 ||LAA 4.5 ||KCR 13.7||BAL 3.9 |
|3||TBR 13.2 ||SEA 7.5 ||KCR 2.7 ||TOR 3.6 ||BOS 5.5 ||SEA 5.6 ||TOR 3.0 ||CLE 4.2 ||CHW 5.0 ||TOR 4.2 ||BAL 13.1 ||BOS 3.0 |
|4||CLE 12.4 ||OAK 6.5 ||LAA 2.6 ||CHW 3.3 ||DET 5.4 ||MIN 3.9 ||CHW 3.0 ||NYY 3.7 ||TBR 4.8 ||BOS 3.0 ||OAK 10.2 ||TOR 2.7 |
|5||KCR 12.3 ||NYY 6.0 ||CHW 2.5 ||BOS 3.0 ||MIN 5.3 ||BAL 3.5 ||CLE 2.6 ||DET 3.4 ||KCR 4.6 ||BAL 2.9 ||TBR 9.5 ||HOU 1.9 |
|6||HOU 11.8 ||BAL 5.6 ||NYY 2.5 ||LAA 2.7 ||LAA 5.3 ||TBR 3.3 ||SEA 2.6 ||OAK 3.3 ||TEX 4.2 ||HOU 2.8 ||TOR 9.2 ||OAK 1.6 |
|7 ||OAK 11.4 ||DET 5.3 ||HOU 2.4 ||OAK 1.8 ||TBR 2.6 ||NYY 3.3 ||KCR 2.4 ||TOR 3.3 ||NYY 3.8 ||KCR 2.6 ||NYY 8.0 ||LAA 1.4 |
|8||LAA 10.9 ||BOS 4.8 ||MIN 2.0 ||NYY 1.6 ||NYY 1.9 ||TOR 2.0 ||MIN 2.1 ||TBR 2.8 ||MIN 3.2 ||TBR 1.9 ||BOS 7.4 ||TBR 1.3 |
|9||TOR 10.7 ||TBR 4.3 ||BAL 1.8 ||TBR 1.5 ||TOR 1.6 ||CHW 1.6 ||HOU 1.8 ||LAA 2.0 ||CLE 3.1 ||DET 1.4 ||DET 7.0 ||MIN 0.8 |
|10||CHW 9.8 ||MIN 4.1 ||TEX 1.6 ||CLE 1.0 ||BAL 1.1 ||CLE 1.6 ||OAK 1.2 ||BOS 2.0 ||HOU 2.8 ||SEA 1.1 ||HOU 6.4 ||CHW 0.8 |
|11||NYY 8.8 ||TEX 3.7 ||DET 1.4 ||MIN 1.0 ||KCR 1.0 ||LAA 0.3 ||TEX 1.1 || SEA 1.5 ||BOS 2.3 ||NYY 0.5 ||CLE 6.3 ||TEX 0.3 |
|12||BAL 8.8 ||TOR 3.4 ||TOR 1.4 ||KCR 0.6 ||CLE 1.0 ||KCR 0.3 ||BOS 0.6 ||HOU 0.8 ||OAK 2.3 ||TEX 0.5 ||TEX 4.6 ||NYY -0.1 |
|13||MIN 4.1 ||DET 2.3 || SEA 0.7 || SEA 0.3 ||OAK 0.5 ||BOS -0.6 ||TBR 0.6 ||TEX -0.1 ||DET 2.2 ||MIN -0.4 ||CHW 4.2 ||CLE -0.1 |
|14 ||TEX 1.7 ||CHW 1.5 ||BOS 0.6 ||TEX -0.6 ||CHW 0.5 ||HOU -1.2 ||DET -0.1 ||CHW -0.1 ||TOR 1.7 ||CHW -0.7 ||SEA 3.0 ||SEA -0.2 |
|15 ||BOS 0.8 ||HOU -2.4 ||TBR -1.1 ||HOU -1.3 ||TEX 0.5 ||DET -1.4 ||NYY -0.1 ||MIN -0.3 ||SEA 0.4 ||CLE -1.0 ||MIN 2.5 ||KCR -0.4 |
Where does Seattle need help?
The Mariners were below the AL average at six out of nine non-pitching positions. In some cases, they were among the worst in the league. Does that mean that the Mariners need to make sweeping changes? No. But, Seattle will need to improve considerably to be a serious contender for the AL West title. Take a look at each position to see where there are opportunities to improve internally and where there is help needed from outside the organization.
Seattle is content with going forward with Mike Zunino, who had the majority of plate appearances ((472) for the catcher position. Although his value was below league average, it’s important to note that the 23-year-old has only played in 279 major and minor league games since graduating from the University of Florida in 2012. The Mariners’ belief in their young receiver is well placed; Zunino struggled at the plate in 2014 while demonstrating impressive right-handed power and is a superb receiver. It’s realistic to expect that he will continue to add more value to the position in 2015.
Zunino shared the position with John Buck, Humberto Quintero, and Jesus Sucre who provided minimal value to the position; the three backups provided a replacement level value of .2 WAR, with all of that coming from Sucre. Adding a better backup would help improve the position’s value, reduce risk if Zunino were to miss prolonged time due to injury, and ensure that the starting catcher doesn’t get worn down during the season.
Logan Morrison provided the most value (1.4 WAR) of all Mariner first basemen in 2014. Actually, he’s the only Mariner first baseman who had a positive value at the position. Once he supplanted Justin Smoak at first base, “Lo-Mo” posted an impressive .284/.341/.448 triple slash in the second half of the season. If he can stay healthy, it’s reasonable to assume that the position’s value will increase in 2015. Staying on the field has been a problem for Morrison during his five-year career; the most games he’s played were 123 in 2011. So, having a competent backup is a must.
Only the Minnesota Twin’s outfield ranked worse that the Mariners’ in 2014. In left field, Dustin Ackley provided near-starter 1.9 WAR after a strong second half delivering a .783 on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS). Despite his second half resurgence, Ackley’s .212/.255/.298 season record against left-hand pitching demonstrates that more help is needed.
After trading for center fielder Austin Jackson at the July 31st trading deadline, the Mariners had to be disappointed in his offensive performance during the postseason push. In Jackson’s defense, his .1 WAR for August and September was only a small part of Seattle’s lack of value in center field. James Jones and Abraham Almonte patrolled center field for 111 games and delivered a combined 0.0 WAR. Improvement in center field will hinge on Austin’s ability to bounce back although it should be noted that his 2014 WAR with the Detroit Tigers was a substitute level 1.7.
In right field, the Mariner who provided the most value was Michael Saunders, who was traded to the Toronto Blue Jays for J. A. Happ. His 2.4 WAR value easily exceeded than the combined value of Endy Chavez and Stefen Romero (-1.1) who had a combined 281 plate appearances compared to Saunders’ (220) in right field. The addition of Justin Ruggiano is a positive step. But, it’s unlikely that his contributions will significantly improve outfield value unless he’s used in a platoon role. . Improving right field is an incomplete project for General Manage Jack Zduriencik.
Adding Cruz instantly makes DH better. Even if he provides half of his 2014 value in 2015, he’ll be significantly better than the every 2014 Mariners’ DH combined.
Holding strong in previous areas of strength
Areas of strength in 2014 are not necessarily guaranteed to repeat in 2015. Barring injury, Cano and Seager should be safe to deliver excellence again. Also, shortstop should be better than last year assuming that the young tandem of Miller or Taylor continues to improve. The bullpen is in good shape too because most of their best arms are young. On the other hand, the young arms of the team’s starting rotation could add risk.
In some circles, there’s a perception that Seattle has a deep starting pitching core. It’s true that the Mariners’ pitchers are talented and/or have tremendous upside. But, going into the season without adding more depth could come back haunt Seattle if any of their pitchers are lost due to injury; particularly Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma. Remember, Erasmo Ramirez, Brandon Maurer, Blake Beavan, and Tom Wilhelmsen started 14.8% of all Seattle Mariners’ games in 2014. The addition of J. A. Happ helps, but he has only pitched over 160 innings once in his career; 166 in 2009. Considering that Elias, Paxton, and Walker averaged a full inning/start less than King Felix and Kuma (5.65 vs. 6.67), adding another veteran pitcher who can eat innings would help take pressure off of the bullpen.
The Mariners will need improved value from Zunino, Morrison, Ackley, Jackson, their right fielder, and their young starting pitchers in 2015 if they want to contend for a playoff spot. But, Seattle isn’t ready to compete for the AL West title with their current roster, at least not without either marked improvements from 1-2 of the incumbent young players, or incremental improvements from a number of them. Getting more from catcher, first base, left/right field, and from the starting rotation is paramount for a team that wants to play deep into October.
It’s important to note that Mariners pitchers and catchers don’t report until February 20th and the regular season doesn’t start until April 6th so there’s plenty of time left to upgrade. But, there’s a lot more to do before Opening Day.
In 2014, Luke joined the Prospect Insider team and is now a contributor at HERO Sports also. During baseball season, he can be often found observing the local team at Safeco Field.
You can follow Luke on Twitter @luke_arkins