“Patience is the shortcut.”
It’s a mantra the Seattle Mariners emphasized during the organization’s rebuild. Practicing patience is a good idea for Mariners fans whenever considering the outlook for the team’s up-and-coming prospects. Patience also comes in handy when reflecting on the brief MLB career of Jarred Kelenic.
Since making his big-league debut with the Mariners in May 2021, it’s been a turbulent ride for Kelenic. A quick scan of his numbers gives us a sense of just how rough it’s been for the sixth overall pick of the 2018 draft.
Batting average is no longer the go-to stat it used to be. But a .168 AVG is an eyesore whether you prefer conventional stats or advanced metrics. More bad news: a 66 OPS+ signals his overall offensive production has been 34% below the average player.
On-base Plus Slugging Plus (OPS+) is a normalized version of OPS that adjusts for park and league conditions. OPS+ is scaled so 100 is always league-average. As a result, an OPS+ of 150 means a hitter was 50-percent more productive than the average player. An 80 OPS+ would be 20-percent below average.
For impatient Kelenic detractors, his awful stat line is reason enough to give up on the 23-year-old. Some naysayers suggest no one has ever rebounded from such a dreadful start to become a good hitter. Therefore, the Mariners should move on from the former top-5 MLB prospect.
I disagree.
Pulling the plug on a player so young could end up haunting the skeptics pining to jettison Kelenic and the fans pulling for him to excel as a Mariner. To demonstrate this point, I identified players who also stumbled through their age-22 season before developing into productive MLB hitters.
Since we’ll be discussing current players and names from decades ago, I focused on finding individuals with an OPS+ similar to Kelenic’s. A hitter’s OPS+ is based on what league-average production was when they were playing. Therefore, their overall offensive productivity when compared to peers was similar to what the Mariners’ scuffling youngster has produced in his first two seasons.
I’ve also included the usual slash-line stats for your perusal. Some numbers will resemble Kelenic’s, others will not. But there is a common thread between everyone discussed. They too struggled at an early age.
Each hitter’s story reinforces why practicing patience with a young, talented player can pay off in the long run. In some cases, clubs didn’t wait long enough and likely regretted parting ways with an underperforming youngster too soon.
Matt Williams
| Williams | ||||||||
| Kelenic |
The early part of William’s career was a slog. But everything began to click in 1990, his age-24 season. The University of Nevada product clobbered 33 home runs with a 123 OPS+, His effort earned him an All-Star selection, a sixth-place finish in NL MVP voting, and a Silver Slugger Award.
All told, Williams played 17 seasons hitting 378 home runs with a 117 OPS+ during stints with San Francisco, Arizona, and Cleveland. Along the way, he appeared in five All-Star games, was a four-time Gold Glover, and won five Silver Sluggers.
Paul Konerko
| Konerko | ||||||||
| Kelenic |
Konerko’s first two seasons with the Dodgers and Reds weren’t memorable. Then, an offseason trade sent the 13th overall pick of the 1994 draft to his third and final team – the White Sox.
From there, Konerko became a star in the Windy City playing 16 more seasons and finishing his career with 439 home runs. Even better, the right-handed hitter was named 2005 ALCS MVP and led the South Siders to their first World Series title since 1917.
Jonathan Schoop
| Schoop | ||||||||
| Kelenic |
Schoop is the first active player we’ll discuss. The 31-year-old won’t finish with standout career numbers like Williams and Konerko. But he’s been a productive major-leaguer during his 10 big-league seasons.
The Curacao native was a 2017 All-Star with Baltimore and even received MVP votes that season. Schoop, who’s spent the last three years with the Tigers, has a career .255 AVG/.294 OBP/.433 SLG slash-line with a 97 OPS+. Not a star, but a useful player nonetheless.
Aramis Ramírez
| Ramirez | ||||||||
| Kelenic |
The native of the Dominican Republic debuted with the Pirates as a 20-year-old in 1998 and scuffled during his first three MLB seasons. But at 23, Ramírez broke out with 32 home runs and .300/.350/.536 slash with Pittsburgh.
When he hung up his cleats following the 2015 campaign, the three-time All-Star had 386 home runs and a .283/.341/.492 slash with a 115 OPS+.
Javier Báez
| Báez | ||||||||
| Kelenic |
Báez, selected ninth overall in 2011 by the Cubs, struck out at a high rate and reached base about as often as Kelenic has thus far. Since then, the career of the Puerto Rican has been a series of ups and downs.
To date, Báez‘s peak season was 2017 when he was runner-up for NL MVP. Now with the Tigers, the nine-year veteran and two-time All-Star has a career .260 AVG/.302 OBP/.464 SLG and a 103 OPS+.
Brandon Phillips
| Phillips | ||||||||
| Kelenic |
The preceding table captures Phillips’ first two years with Cleveland, but his next two campaigns at ages 23 and 24 weren’t much to talk about either. All told, he hit .206/.246/.310 in four seasons with the organization. Then came a trade to the Reds.
In his next 11 seasons with Cincinnati, the Redan High School alum averaged 147 games, 17 home runs, 28 doubles, and 17 stolen bases annually. During this timeframe, he was a three-time All-Star, a four-time Gold Glover, a Silver Slugger winner, and also received MVP recognition in 2007 and 2012.
Kyle Tucker
| Tucker | ||||||||
| Kelenic |
Like Kelenic, Tucker was an early first round pick out of high school. Houston’s current right fielder saw significantly less playing time than Kelenic did through his age-22 season. But his numbers were largely underwhelming until he became a full-timer as a 24-year-old.
Since then, Tucker has averaged 20 doubles, 32 doubles, and 32 home runs with a .275 AVG/.344 OBP/.516 SLG and a 137 OPS+. The Tampa, Florida native also earned his first All-Star selection and Gold Glove last year.
Others to consider…
Practice is an important discipline regardless of a prospect’s age. So, let’s consider a few late bloomers I noticed during my initial search for Kelenic comps. All are recognizable, some have ties to the Mariners.
Through his first two seasons and 503 plate appearances, current Braves third baseman Austin Riley was hitting .232/.288/.448 with an 86 OPS+. The next two years (2021-22), Riley finished fop-7 in NL MVP voting, won a Silver Slugger, and was the 2021 World Series MVP. Last season, Atlanta rewarded the Tennessean with a 10-year/$212 million contract.
Hall of Famer Mike Schmidt had a .197 AVG and a 90 OPS+ through two seasons and 483 plate appearances. At the time, Schmidt wasn’t exactly a fan-favorite in Philadelphia. But the Ohio native eventually won over the City of Brotherly Love with three regular season MVP awards and a World Series MVP in 1980.
Former Mariner Nelson Cruz didn’t flourish until his age-27 season. In his first three years with Milwaukee and Texas, Cruz hit 15 home runs and .231/.282/.385 with a 72 OPS+ in 145 games. Afterwards, Boomstick became a seven-time All-Star and earned four Silver Sluggers.
Another one-time Mariner with a potent bat – Gorman Thomas – also started slowly. In his first three years as a Brewer, Thomas hit 14 home runs with an anemic .191/.274/.352 slash and 77 OPS+. The South Carolina native went on to play 10 more years and hit 30-plus home runs five times, including with Seattle in 1985.
And if we’re going to talk about ex-Mariners, how can we not mention Chris Taylor?
The Mariners traded Taylor to the Dodgers after he hit .240/.296/.296 with a 71 OPS+ in 256 plate appearances. Much to the chagrin of Seattle fans, the former Virginia Cavalier has a .258/.337/.447 slash line with a 109 OPS+ with his new club. Not gaudy numbers, but better production than what the Mariners got from the player received for Taylor – Zach Lee.
José Bautista played with four teams in his first three seasons. The results: a .225/.318/.376 slash with 16 home runs and a 80 OPS+ in 596 plate appearances. Bautista joined the Blue Jays in his age-27 season and became a star two years later. During his age 29-34 seasons, the Dominican averaged 38 home runs annually with a .268/.390/.555 slash with a 156 OPS+. Not only that, Bautista was an All-Star each year, finished top-4 in MVP voting twice, and won three Silver Sluggers.
Through his first three seasons and 142 games, Torii Hunter was slashing .254/.309/.377 with a 71 OPS+. During his next 16 campaigns, Hunter did much better: .278/.333/.466 with a 112 OPS+. The Arkansas native’s superb performance over the years earned him five All-Star selections, nine Gold Gloves, and two Silver Sluggers.
Eduardo Escobar hit.228/.281/.307 with a 62 OPS+ during his first three seasons and 332 plate appearances with the White Sox and Twins. Currently with the Mets, Escobar has been an average-ish performer (.256 AVG/.310 OBP/.445 SLG/102 OPS+) in the nine years since his bumpy beginning.
Looking ahead
It’s quite possible fans wanting to move past Kelenic won’t be swayed by our comps and that’s fine. Honestly, I’m not convinced the Wisconsin native delivers sustained, positive results for the Mariners in 2023. I’m not even certain he makes the Opening Day roster or ever becomes an established major-leaguer. But here’s the thing.
His critics don’t know either.
Time will eventually reveal whether Kelenic thrives in the majors or will simply be remembered as a prospect who didn’t pan out. But at 23-years-old, he still has ample time to get on track.
And that’s why practicing patience is so vital at this stage of Jarred Kelenic’s development.
My Oh My…
Luke Arkins
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