Photo of Luis Liberato by Ben Sandstrom

Tacoma Rainiers (AAA)– Pacific Coast League

No. 1 Justus Sheffield, LHS
FRI: DNP
2019: 27.1 IP, 19 H, 11 ER, 23 BB, 20 SO, 3.76 ERA


No. 8 Shed Long, 2B/3B/OF
FRI: Called Up to MLB 5/10/2019
2019: .276/.350/.504, 5-2B, 4-3B, 5 HR, 21 RBI, 14 BB, 31 SO


No. 22 David McKay, RHR
FRI: DNP
2019: 12 G, 5.21 ERA, 19 IP, 17 H, 10 BB, 30 SO


No. 31 Matt Festa, RHR
FRI: DNP
2019: 6 G, 8.22 ERA, 7.2 IP, 11 H, 3 BB, 10 SO


No. 35 Tim Lopes, 2B
FRI: 1-3, 2 RBI, 2B, SB, BB, SO
2019: .290/.345/.433, 7-2B, 3B, 2 HR, 16 RBI, 10 BB, 23 SO, 6 SB

Lopes’ home run came off a Ruby De La Rosa breaking ball and it was an absolute laser beam to left field that hit the lighted sign above the outfield fence.


No. 39 Connor Kopach, 2B
FRI: 1-4, SO
2019: .246/.326/.373, 6-2B, 3B, 2 HR, 10 BB, 28 SO, 9 SB

Kopach’s stay with Tacoma is likely to be short but he’s not going to embarrass himself. Quick hands, can play 2B or SS and he might be the best base stealer among the Top 40.


No. 40 Nick Rumbelow, RHR
FRI: DNP
2019: 11 G, 10.54 ERA, 13.2 IP, 22 H, 10 BB, 10 SO


UR Parker Markel, RHR
FRI: 1.2 IP, 5 SO
2019: 17.1 IP, 5 H, ER, 7 BB, 35 SO


MLB Mallex Smith, CF — 3-4, SB (7), HR (1)


Arkansas Travelers (AA) — Texas League

No. 3 Justin Dunn, RHS
FRI: 2 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, BB, 5 SO
2019: 27.1 IP, 26 H, 13 ER, 9 BB, 38 SO, 4.28 ERA

After a seven-day layoff Dunn struggled with command, though not control — one walk, 41 of 60 pitches for strikes) allowing five hits, three of them for extra bases (2B, 3B, HR).


No. 6 Kyle Lewis, OF
FRI: Game 1: 0-2, 2 BB, 2 SO   Game 2: 0-3, SO
2019: .241/.364/.389, 5-2B, 3B, 3 HR, 19 RBI, 20 BB, 35 SO, 2 SB

Lewis is the perfect example of the small-sample context I’ve been tweeting about of late. Among others, the MiLB Mariners account tweets a lot of stuff about the Mariners farm system, but it’s through rose-colored goggles.

MORE:  Shed Long, Luis Liberato Mash, Jake Haberer Dominates: Mariners Prospect Wrap -- May 8, 2019

While that’s all fine and dandy — this is America after all — the pure stats, especially small samples, are not helpful in understanding what’s actually taking place and I’m noticing a lot of fans engaging with those tweets as if cherry-picked stretches are indicative of anything at all.

Enerting play Friday Kyle Lewis was 13 for his last 38 (.342 AVG) with nine walks and 10 strikeouts.  But during that same 10-game span, Lewis has four infield hits that were not hit hard by any stretch, and just three extra-base hits.

If I told you he was batting .237 with a .359 slugging percentage over those 10 games, you wouldn’t be impressed. Without the context, the 10-game sample is not only meaningless, it’s actually misleading.

Furthermore, these accounts are ONLY tweeting the good stuff. Never “Jarred Kelenic is 2-for-22 in his last six games with eight strikeouts and two walks” so it seems like these stretches do not exist… but they do, and they matter as much as the positive streaks.

Lewis has NOT had a good year and it’s not because he started slow and said slow start is ruining his season-long statline, it’s because he hasn’t been good for long stretches.

Yet.


No. 7 Evan White, 1B
FRI: Game 1: 0-4, 4 SO  Game 2: 1-3, SO
2019: .271/.353/.390, 4-2B, HR, 6 RBI, 7 BB, 14 SO


No. 14 Ricardo Sanchez, LHS
FRI: DNP
2019: 36 IP, 33 H, 7 ER, 7 BB, 26 SO, 1.75 ERA


No. 15 Dom Thompson-Williams, OF
FRI: Game 1: 1-3, BB, SO   Game 2: 1-2, 2B, SO
2019: .324/.411/.543, 4-2B, 2-3B, 5 HR, 16 RBI, 15 BB, 28 SO, 7 SB


No. 16 Jake Fraley, OF
FRI: Game 1:  2-4, 2-2B, SB, 2 RBI Game 2: 1-2, BB
2019: .313/.394/.527, 5-2B, 2-3B, 5 HR, 19 RBI, 13 BB, 27 SO, 8 SB


No. 24 Wyatt Mills, RHR
FRI:
2.1 IP, H, 3 BB, 4 SO
2019:
14.2 IP, 20 H, 11 ER, 9 BB, 14 SO, 2 SVS

MORE:  Baseball Things Podcast: Draft Names to Watch for the Mariners at No. 20, Projecting Prospect Promotions

No. 23 Art Warren, RHP
FRI: DNP
2019: 1-0, 5 SV, 1.04 ERA, 8.2 IP, 6 H, 3 BB, 10 SO, 5 SVS


No. 27 Darren McCaughan, RHS
FRI: DNP
2019: 6 GS, 4.28 ERA, 33.2 IP, 36 H, 2 BB, 30 SO


Modesto Nuts (A+) — California League

No. 5 Logan Gilbert, RHS
FRI: DNP
2019: 24 IP, 14 H, 7 ER, 7 BB, 37 SO, 2.63 ERA


No. 9 Cal Raleigh, C
FRI: DNP
2019: .205/.276/.366, 6-2B, 4 HR, 17 RBI, 10 BB, 29 SO


No. 13 Ljay Newsome, RHS
FRI: DNP
2019: 7 GS, 39.2 IP, 32 H, 11 ER, 4 BB, 59 SO, 2.50 ERA


No. 18 Jake Haberer, RHR
FRI: DNP
2019: 11 G, 16 IP, 7 H, 7 BB, 26 SO, 2.81 ERA


No. 19 Joey Gerber, RHP
FRI: DNP
2019: 11 G, 10.1 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 5 BB, 16 SO, 3.18 ERA, 4 SV


No. 21 Gerson Bautista, RHR (rehab)
FRI: DNP
2019: 1 IP, H, 2 ER, BB, SO, 2 WP


No. 25 Luis Liberato, CF
FRI: 4-4, 2-2B
2019: .304/.369/.512, 5-2B, 7 HR, 4 SB, 13 BB, 30 SO, 4 SB


No. 34 Joe Rizzo, 3B
FRI: 3-5, HR, RBI
2019: .346/.417/.457, 8-2B, 2 HR, 18 RBI, 15 BB, 24 SO


MLB Sam Tuivailala, RHR (rehab) — Tuivailala served up a solo home run to lead off the fifth inning for the Nuts Thursday, but then got a ground out, strikeout (swinging, fastball) and pop out to end the frame. It was his third outing, with No. 4 coming Saturday (Gerson Bautista will also pitch Saturday for Modesto in relief of No. 13 Ljay Newsome).

UR J.T. Salter, RHR — The club’s 20th-round pick last June made his 2019 debut and looked terrific, tossing two shutout frames Thursday. Salter, out of Division 3 West Alabama, stands 6-foot-8 and at draft time weighed in at 295 pounds. At Everett a year ago he lived in the mid-90s with his fastball (he’s been up to 98 mph), but his control and command were well below average. He’s clearly worked hard to get in better condition and on his delivery, because this was a different pitcher Thursday night.

MORE:  Ljay Newsome Dominant, Shed Long and Braden Bishop Show Power: Mariners Prospect Wrap -- May 16, 2019

He threw strikes, showed armside run on the fastball and the curveball showed good depth and sharp, late break; a couple of the ones I saw looked like 60-65 grade offerings.


West Virginia Power (A) — South Atlantic League

No. 2 — Jarred Kelenic, OF
FRI: 0-5, 2 SO
2019: .331/.424/.597, 13-2B, 3B, 6 HR, 18 RBI, 19 BB, 33 SO, 6 SB


No. 4 — Julio Rodriguez, OF
FRI: (IL, wrist)
2019: .355/.429/.452, 3-2B, 3 RBI, 4 BB, 5 SO


No. 12 Damon Casetta-Stubbs, RHS
FRI: DNP
2019: 15.1 IP, 16 H, 6 ER, 3 BB, 12 SO, 4.15 ERA


No. 20 Ryne Inman, RHS
FRI: 5 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 2 SO
2019: 7 GS, 32 IP, 22 H, 12 ER, 13 BB, 46 SO, 3.38 ERA


No. 29 Nolan Hoffman, RHR
FRI: DNP
2019: 9 G, 1.08 ERA, 4 SVS, 8.1 IP, 4 H, 4 BB, 7 SO


No. 32 Joseph Rosa, 2B
FRI: 0-3, 2 BB, 3 SO
2019: .271/.402/.364, 4-2B, 2 HR, 19 BB, 25 SO, 5 SB


No. 33 Dean Nevarez, C
FRI: 1-2, 2 BB, SO
2019: .263/.349/.579, 3-2B, 3 HR, 7 RBI, 4 BB, 12 SO


No. 36 Elias Espino, RHR
FRI: DNP
2019: 5 G, 2.77 ERA, 13 IP, 7 H, 9 BB, 17 SO

Jason A. Churchill

Churchill founded Prospect Insider in 2006 after getting his start at InsidethePark.com. He spent several years covering prep, college and pro sports for various newspapers, including The News Tribune and Seattle PI.

Jason spent 4 1/2 years at ESPN and two years at CBS Radio prior to joining HERO Sports in July, 2016.

Find Jason's Mariners podcast, Baseball Things, right here and follow him on Twitter @ProspectInsider.