Seattle Mariners (Page 2)

Posted: Nos. 11-20 Posted: Nos. 21-30 Posted: Nos. 31-40 Wednesday: No. 5 Thursday: No. 4 Friday: No. 3 Saturday, Feb. 27: No. 2 Sunday, Feb. 28: No. 1 Monday, March 1: Best Tools Tuesday, March 2: How many Mariners prospects would be No. 1 elsewhere? Wednesday March 3: Projected 2024 Lineup, Rotation, Bullpen Thursday, March 4: Projecting the Top 10 Prospects after the season The Seattle Mariners farm system is as deep as it’s ever been. There’s big-league talent beyond the club’s Top 20. Below is prospects Nos. 11-20. Important note: There’s a delicate balance between upside, risk, and ETA, but the difference between No. 10 and No. 5 or No. 6 isn’t as significant as it may seem in some cases. NO PLAYER POS ETA BEST TOOL 2021 6 George Kirby RHP 2023 COMMAND A+/AA 7 Taylor Trammell LF 2021 HIT AAA/MLB 8 Cal Raleigh C 2021 POWER AAA/MLB 9 Brandon Williamson LHP 2023 FASTBALL A+/AA 10 Isaiah Campbell RHP 2023 FASTBALL A/A+ 10. Isaiah Campbell, RHP Campbell has yet to throw a competitive pitch in pro ball but has size (6-4/230) and projectable command that should allow his four-pitch mix to work as a starter with a chance to move quickly. It might make sense for the right-hander to focus on one of his breaking balls in 2021, and the slider is further along than his slow, somewhat loopy curveball which might be better used as an early-count eye-level changer than an out pitch. He creates plane by staying on top of a high three-quarters slot and despite some barking about his long arm path throws strikes. There’s some tail to his fastball and he does a good job maintaining arm speed throughout his arsenal. Campbell is adept at attacking the entire zone. The cub’s comp-round pick from two years back could start 2021 at either Class-A affiliate but has a chance to move up once or twice this season. As a starter he carries mid-rotation upside. TOOLS FB SL CB CH CO 60+ (92-96) 50+ (80-83) 45 (71-75) 50+ (81-84) 50 9. Brandon Williamson, LHP Williamson has been up to 97 mph with his fastball and carries a better set of secondary pitches than does Campbell. If he had more experience and was a step or two closer to the majors I likely would have him ranked 2-3 spots higher. He’s athletic and uses his 6-foot-6 frame to pitch downhill with his fastball, curveball and slider, all of which project as big-league pitches. The curveball is above-average and has a chance to be the best in the organization. His changeup needs a lot of work but has flashed near average and should at least be useful in time. Williamson’s arm slot is around three-quarters, perhaps a bit lower, helping him create angles that prove difficult for both lefties and righties when he stays closed and explodes through release point. His fastball has life up in the zone and he uses it well on both edges to right-handed batters. Williamson has a chance to be a very good No. 3, with good  fastball command and changeup quality his biggest hurdles. He should start 2021 in Class-A Everett with a shot to move up as the year progresses, and could easily speed up his ETA. TOOLS FB SL CB CH CO 65 (93-97) 50 (84-87) 55+ (78-82) 55 (83-86) 45+ 8. Cal Raleigh, C Raleigh is never going to be mistaken for Yadier Molina or Pudge Rodriguez defensively, but he’s answered a lot of questions with playable answers, and offers the kinds of intangibles clubs want from catchers. Raleigh is a tough leader, has improved his receiving and framing, and his above-average arm strength plays up with good accuracy and consistent mechanics. He’s worked hard to maintain his conditioning in order stay behind the dish. His calling card, however, is power, showing legitimate 60-grade pop from the left side and fringe-average, doubles power from the right. He has average bat speed, but the swing is a bit long, so he’s likely to swing and miss quite a bit, with home runs as the payoff. His left-handed swing is also his better side in terms of contact and hitting for average, though there hasn’t been any buzz about giving up switch-hitting, and it might be less than ideal to do it now when he’s so close to the majors. Raleigh projects as an average catcher led by power hitting, but if the hit tool catches up a bit with experience he could see some DH time when he’s not catching, perhaps extending his career that otherwise could be shortened by a lack of athleticism. TOOLS HIT PWR FIELD THROW RUN 40+ 60 45 55 30 7. Taylor Trammell, OF His plus to plus-plus speed jumps out and he’s always shown an above-average ability to get the barrel to the ball. The bat speed suggests raw power into the mid-teens or better, but the attempts to unlock it appear to have hurt his ability to hit for average in 2019. There’s still too much swing-and-miss in his game considering the more likely power production, which is the largest hurdle to his chances to hit big-league pitching. But he’s always drawn walks and provided value in the field and on the bases. Trammell’s swing is still a work-in-progress and as a result I don’t have as much confidence as some regarding his ETA. I do, however, buy his defensive value more than most, even if his below-average arm keeps him in left field. There’s some Starling Marte in Trammell’s upside, and some Jacque Jones in the median projection. It’s difficult to imagine he’s not a major-league player, considering the speed and defense. The exact role is yet to be determined. He’ll start 2021 in Triple-A Tacoma, probably playing both center and left, and likely gets at least a cup of java with the big club later in the season. TOOLS HIT PWR FIELD THROW RUN 55 50 50+ 40+ 60+ 6. George Kirby, RHP Kirby’s best attributes lend tons of confidence in his ETA and floor, led by plus-plus control, plus command and athleticism that helps him repeat his delivery very well. The right-hander will cruise 91-94 mph but there’s more velocity to come based on the occasional 95 in college and his work at the alternate training site that produced a lot of 95-99 in the fall. The four-seamer has life and run, and his slider, an above-average, 84-87 mph breaker, is his best chance to be a true swing-and-miss offering. His changeup has flashed plus and I project it to land there in time, and he uses a 79-82 curveball effectively versus left-handed hitters, burying it below the zone or getting called strikes. It’s not as consistent or sharp as the slider, but should remain an early-count weapon. Kirby projects as a No. 3 starter for me, and the floor isn’t much of a drop. I think there’s a decent chance he’s better than Logan Gilbert or Emerson Hancock, perhaps thrusting Kirby into No. 2 status, though I fall quite shy of seeing a No. 1 starter or true ace. I think he’s ultimately more than a command-and-feel right-hander who wins with efficiency. TOOLS FB SL CB CH CO 60+ 60 50 60 65 NO PLAYER POS ETA BEST TOOL 2021 11 Juan Then RHP 2022 FASTBALL A+/AA 12 Zach DeLoach CF 2023 HIT A+ 13 Jonatan Clase CF 2025 RUN A/A+ 14 Austin Shenton 3B 2022 HIT AA 15 Sam Carlson RHP 2024 FASTBALL R/A 16 Andres Munoz RHP 2021 FASTBALL AAA/MLB 17 Connor Phillips RHP 2023 FASTBALL R/A 18 Levi Stoudt RHP 2023 FASTBALL A/A+ 19 Jake Fraley OF 2021 HIT AAA/MLB 20 Milkar Perez 3B 2024 HIT R/A 21 Ljay Newsome RHP 2021 COMMAND AAA/MLB 22 Anthony Misiewicz LHR 2021 CURVEBALL MLB 23 Will Vest RHR 2021 FASTBALL MLB 24 George Feliz CF 2025 HIT R 25 Braden Bishop CF 2021 FIELD AAA/MLB 26 Yohan Ramirez RHR 2021 SLIDER AAA/MLB 27 Joey Gerber RHR 2021 FASTBALL AAA/MLB 28 Adam Macko LHP 2024 CURVEBALL A/A+ 29 Wyatt Mills RHR 2021 FASTBALL AAA/MLB 30 Sam Delaplane RHR 2021 CURVEBALL AAA/MLB 31 Carter Bins C 2023 FIELD A+/AA 32 Alberto Rodriguez OF 2024 HIT A 33 Aaron Fletcher LHR 2021 SLIDER AAA/MLB 34 Kaden Polcovich 2B 2023 HIT A/A+ 35 Damon Casetta-Stubbs RHP 2024 FASTBALL A/A+ 36 Michael Limoncelli RHP 2025 CURVEBALL R 37 Kristian Cardozo RHP 2026 CURVEBALL R 38 Starlin Aguilar OF 2026 POWER R 39 Tyler Keenan 1B 2023 POWER A/A+ 40 Taylor Dollard RHP 2023 CHANGEUP A  Go!

Since we’re just days from pitchers and catchers reporting for spring training, let’s continue the discussions, preview-style. First, we talked pitchers — starters and relievers alike — so now let’s go over every position player. All players on the 40-man roster and others invited to camp are discussed below. The Mariners, as a team, ranked No. 22 in runs scored a year ago. They finished No. 24 in batting average at .226, No. 26 in on-base percentage (.309) and No. 28 in slugging at .370. The club’s 91 wRC+ ranked No. 23. Seattle was 25th in the league with 60 home runs, 13th in walk rate (9.5%), and struck out 25% of the time, good for 8th-most in baseball. On the bases, the club finished No. 2 in the entire league behind the Colorado Rockies by one measure — rankings seen here. Defensively, the Mariners ranked No. 9 in MLB in Defensive Runs Saved, but several other metrics grade them below average. Of course, they did all that without their best player, and over a small sample, so caveats apply in either direction. Projections below are subject to change with roster additions. Projected Starting Infield The starting infield is going to look very similar to start 2021, with three returning starters and a part-timer from a year ago likely taking over regularly. Evan White, 1B 2020: .176/.252/.346, 8 HR, 8.9% BB, 41.6% K, 66 wRC+, -0.2 fWAR White was quite literally hit or miss in 54 games last season, struggling to make consistent contact and landing on the extreme edges in terms of batted balls — 84.7% registered as ground balls or fly balls, just 15.3% line drives. Hitting the ball hard is not an issue, as evidenced by his average exit velocity of 91.7 mph, hard-hit rate of 52.5%, and barrel percentage of 14.1, and neither is generating loft anymore, thanks to adjustments made in the minors. But he whiffed on more than 15% of his swings, the 16th-highest rate in all of baseball among batters with 200 or more plate appearances. There was a hole at the top of the zone and above his hands where opposing teams attacked with velocity, and he struggled mightily versus any kind of offspeed stuff. He’s the best defensive first baseman I’ve seen — ever — and can make plays with his feet, eyes, arm, and instincts, but to serve in a regular role in the majors he has a lot of areas to improve at the plate. The good news is, they’re the types of things that come with experience — plate coverage, overall discipline, swing consistency — and his chase rate last season of 28.4% is acceptable for a run producer. Dylan Moore, 2B 2020: .255/.358/.496, 8 HR, 8.8% BB, 27.0% K, 138 wRC+, 1.4 fWAR Moore was very good in 2020, but his sample is even smaller than most everyday players. He spent a stint on the IL and ended up with only 159 plate appearances in 38 games. Still, the results were promising, led by pop one normally doesn’t expect for a middle infielder, and speed one does. Moore played a lot of outfield last year but should be the regular second baseman to start 2021 — he’s earned that, regardless of the diplomatic position-battle chatter the club will toss out to the public all spring. Moore’s versatility is helpful, however, especially since the club is anything but deep up the middle. His ability to handle shortstop gives the Mariners roster flexibility — they don’t have to carry another player that can play shortstop, just one that can handle second base, and they have no shortage of that. The 28-year-old Moore made his living last season on fastballs — .333 AVG, 6 HR, .693 SLG — and was dominated by anything softer. He’ll have to make that rather large fix or his .255 batting average is likely to fall through the floor, and his power potential will follow. On a World Series contender, Moore is probably a solid utility player that received 300 PAs per season and can fill in admirably over the long haul if a starter suffers a significant injury. For now, he has a chance to be an average regular, and 2021 is going to tell us a lot about his chances to achieve that. J.P. Crawford, SS 2020: .255/.336/.338, 2 HR, 9.9% BB, 16.8% K, 94 wRC+, 1.1 fWAR Crawford has a solid 2020, despite continued streakiness and a lack of punch. He’s an above-average to plus glove, and that’s not going anywhere, and is very good on the bases despite average speed. At 26, there’s still time for the Gold Glover to break through at the plate, but it’s my opinion the swing he’s employing limits his ability to maximize his bat-to-ball skills. The plane, one of the line-drive variety, is ideal, since Crawford lacks the kind of raw power to take advantage of consistently hitting the ball in the air. But he gets his swing started a bit late, and I believe his hands are a tad high and a bit too far back toward the backstop as the pitch is released .In addition, there’s a bit of a bat wrap — the top of the bat is angled back toward the field, creating a longer path to get to the ball. Considering Crawford’s bat speed is merely average, these are real problems. As a result, Crawford gets jammed too easy and is too often late with the head of the bat. This makes him susceptible to, well, everything. If he cheats on hard stuff, soft stuff eats him alive. If he anticipates offspeed, he has no chance on fastballs. These issues also impact Crawford’s strike zone coverage. He makes consistent contact, it’s simply not consistently hard contact (31.1%), and he struggles to find the barrel (1.8%). I also don’t see proper balance, but that’s a longer conversation for another day. Even small improvements with the swing could show up in another 10-20 points in average and OBP, and may even unlock a little bit more power. He’s already a 2-win player, so more offense could shoot Crawford toward three. Kyle Seager, 3B 2020: .241/.355/.433, 9 HR, 12.9%, 13.3%, 118 wRC+, 1.5 fWAR If it doesn’t break, Seager hits it and hits it hard. That’s about where the veteran is as a hitter nowadays. He hit .260 with six homers and a .488 slugging percentage versus fastballs in 2020, and .321 with two home runs and a .536 slugging percentage versus splitters and changeups. Sliders and curveballs gave Seager fits, however, and carved his season down to decent. Seager’s contact skills remain high, but it may serve him well to be a bit more aggressive — he offered at just 40% of the pitches he saw last season — to decrease the number of breaking balls he sees. He’s using the whole field more effectively the past two seasons — particularly the middle of the field — and that game plan and mechanical adjustments have given Seager a better ability to cover the zone and find a few hits he wasn’t back in 2018. Seager did struggle late last season after a hit start, but the whole sample is small, so the struggles in September (.189) shouldn’t be overstated. But it’s also worth noting he posted a .371 OBP during that stretch, an extension of his improved ability to judge the strike zone and limit swings and misses. Seager enters his 11th and final season in Seattle with 207 career home runs and 280 doubles, both 4th in Mariners history. He’s also 4th in hits (1,267), 5th in runs scored, 4th in RBI, 5th in total bases, 5th in games (1,321) and 5th in rWAR (33.4) among position players. He can move into 4th all-time in games this season, and his defensive rWAR could surpass Dave Valle, Alex Rodriguez and Harold Reynolds to vault the third baseman into sixth place. Projected Starting Catcher Tom Murphy 2019: .273/.324/.535, 18 HR, 6.8% BB, 31.0% K, 126 wRC+, 3.2 fWAR Murphy, 29, got to his plus raw power in 2019, and missed 2020 recovering from knee surgery. He’s expected to be the No. 1 catcher this season, however, perhaps catching 55-60% of the games. While the power is real, there are reasons to wonder whether or not Murphy can replicate his 2019 offensive output. is strikeout rate is high, his BABIP of .340 is high, and there is more of a book on him now than prior to that season when he had just 210 big-league plate appearances spread out over the previous four seasons. Whether Murphy can do it again and over a full season remains to be seen, but I do believe he can hit .250/.300/.450 (considering the ball has been altered to somewhat limit the bounce). That, paired with solid-average defense, and Murphy could easily post a 2.5-win campaign, or better. Projected Starting Outfield Barring further additions to the roster, the Mariners will start the season with just two ‘starters’ in the outfield and what appears to be a timeshare of sorts in left field. Mitch Haniger, RF 2019: .220/.314/.463, 15 HR, 10.6% BB, 28.6% K, 106 wRC+, 1.1 fWAR Haniger’s 63-game sample in 2019 was weird. He hit for power — paced for 40 homers — although he wasn’t hitting the ball in the gaps much and his strikeout rate was up nearly 7% from the prior season. He did pull the ball significantly more in 2019 than any other year, which may have been by design, but it also may explain some of the inconsistencies in his ability to make contact. A healthy Haniger is a big boost to the Mariners lineup — again, I’d bat him leadoff and stop miscasting Crawford into a top-of-the-lineup role — and I’d be willing to bet on a return to form. In back-to-back seasons 2017-18, Haniger batted better than .280, posted an OBP over .350 (.352, .366) and slugged .490 or better with very consistent, sustainable batted ball data. Haniger swung through more fastballs in 2019 than ever before and there is evidence the cause was his attempts to elevate the ball more. If he’s healthy and gets back to his pre-2019 game plan, there’s no reason he can’t put up a 3.5-4 win season. Maybe better. There’s also a chance he does it with two teams. Kyle Lewis, CF 2020: .262/.364/.437, 11 HR, 14.0% BB, 29.3% K, 126 wRC+, 1.6 fWAR Lewis had a very good 58-game rookie season, spraying the ball around the yard and staying competitive versus fastballs, breaking balls and changeups alike. But Lewis should be more explosive, and in order to do that he has to get to his pull side more. Nearly 70% of his batted balls went up the middle or the other way, tied for 6th-most in baseball. Here are the top 6: Raimel Tapia DJ LeMahieu Whit Merrifield Jackie Bradley Jr. Kolten Wong Trea Turner See the common theme here? Yeah, those hitters have little in common with Lewis. They’re contact hitters, doubles hitters, and in the case of LeMahieu, a doubles hitter with some HR power that fits his home ballpark well. For context, among the top 25 home-run hitters in MLB in 2020, only three had pull rates under 35% (Nelson Cruz, Nicholas Castellanos, Juan Soto) and only seven pulled the balls under 40% of the time. Considering Lewis’ home park, a severe pull strategy doesn’t make much sense, but hitting a lot of balls to center field isn’t ideal, either, especially when most of them are of the fly ball variety. Lewis has 70 raw power. I’d rather he took more chances hitting fly balls to left and left-center than to center and to the opposite field. Slugging .437 is fine for a small sample for a young player, but the 2020 American League Rookie of the Year is more than capable of 30-40 homers while batting .260 or better with strong OBPs. Projected Starting DH Ty France 2020: ..305/.368/.468, 4 HR, 7.1% BB, 23.9% K, 132 wRC+, 0.9 fWAR France had a better season at the plate than Moore in a similar sample size, and he’s two years younger. So if you’re optimistic on Moore — and I am, at least for 2021 — you have to be encouraged by what France has shown so far. He’s a 40-grade second baseman and at-best a 45-grade third baseman — though the trend here is up — but he can fake at either spot and all signs point to France hitting. It’s 60 raw power and a chance to hit for average, suggesting his bat could carry him to an everyday role despite the defensive deficiencies. France’s average exit velocity wasn’t all that impressive last season — 85.7 mph — naturally leading to a pedestrain hard-hit rate of 29.8%, but just 16.3% of his batted balls registered as soft contact. That will lead to a lot of hits and suggests barrel awareness. His barrel rate of 8.7% backs up such a theory. France is likely to DH a lot in 2021, but he’s passable at first and third and considering how Seattle plays the shift versus left-handed batters he could be situationally playable as a second base option. Projected Reserves Luis Torrens, C 2020: .257/.325/.371, HR, 9.0% BB, 19.2% K, 96 wRC+, -0.2 fWAR. Torrens is a bat-first catcher at present, but has all the physical tools to be at least average defensively. He may be a bit too undersized to catch enough to ever be a true No. 1 option, but projects as a terrific pairing with Cal Raleigh. Torrens has always been selective and showed solid strike zone judgment in his cup of coffee last summer. He’s short to the ball with a line-drive stroke that serves all fields, and he stays back on breaking balls, suggesting consistent contact. The bat speed is above average and capable of producing the kinds of exit velos that generate a lot of doubles and at least a handful of long balls. Shed Long Jr., 2B/3B/LF 2020: .171/.242/.291, 3 HR, 8.6% BB, 28.9% K, 49 wRC+, 0.0 fWAR Long wasn’t healthy last season from the get-go and finally succumbed to surgery. In a 42-game sample two years ago, Long batted .263/.333/.454, which was more in line with his trends in the minors. He’s a good athlete with at least above-average speed, and is capable at second base. He has bits of experience at third base and left field, both of which may come into play in 2021. When healthy, Long stays home versus left-handed pitching and uses the whole field, and his average or better raw power shows up mainly versus righties. The swing is generally terrific, sans a bit of a hitch at its trigger point. But he’s quite adept at staying with himself and getting to his power organically. He has gap power to left-center and his two-strike swing is sound. I think Long is most likely a solid, multi-position reserve, but I do think the bat plays enough to warrant semi-regular time. Sam Haggerty, 2B/OF 2020: .260/.315/.400, HR, 7.4% BB, 29.6% K, 100 wRC+, 0.4 fWAR Haggerty is average at second base and may be able to fake it at shortstop in short stints, but his work in the outfield is promising enough to suggest he can serve as a true utility defender. There are things to like about the potential at the plate, but he gets out front a lot and swings and misses too much for a player without power. Still, the versatility and plus speed give him an inside track to making the club. Jose Marmolejos, 1B/OF 2020: .206/.261/.411, 6 HR, 6.1% BB, 27.8% K, 83 wRC+, -0.3 fWAR The 28-year-old isn’t a true outfielder, so despite above-average raw power he’s essentially a backup first baseman who struggled to hit for average in his first taste of the majors. I’m projecting Marmlejos to make the club, as of February 15, because as a bench option there is offensive potential, and because he’s out of options while some of the other competitors are not. If it were me, I’d DFA Marmolejos and start the season with two of the next four players below. Braden Bishop, OF 2020: .167/.242/.233, 5.9% BB, 29.4% K, 37 wRC+, 0.0 fWAR Bishop is a 65 runner with a 70 glove in center. While one look at his big-league numbers from the past two seasons may appear worrisome, he’s never been given an extended look. It’s always been here and there, optioned, called up, and injuries have played a role. While he doesn’t project to hit a bunch of home runs, there’s enough gap power available and he uses the opposite field adequately. With his defense and baserunning (though he’s not a great base stealer), all Bishop has to do is hit .250 with a league average on-base mark. This season may Bishop’s last chance to earn a role with the Mariners, and it’s plausible the club parts ways with Bishop — and a number of other fringe-roster types — prior to the start of the season. Ideally, at least in my opinion and considering the current roster, Bishop and Fraley start the season as the left-field timeshare until Jarred Kelenic is ready, whether that be April, May or June (bet on sooner than later). Depth Donovan Walton, 2B/SS 2020: .154/.214/.231, 7.1% BB, 35.7% K, 25 wRC+, -0.1 fWAR Walton can handle shortstop in a pinch and projects as average or better at second base. He’s an above-average runner with enough athleticism to suggest he could make a transition to the outfield in order to increase his value. Offensively he’s limited. There’s no discernable power, and his ability to hit line drives is below average. Walton has thrived off a high-contact, ground-ball attack. He has, however, always worked counts and reached base. Walton should start the season as Tacoma’s starting shortstop. Jake Fraley, OF 2020: .154/.241/.269, 6.9% BB, 37.9% K, 45 wRC+, -0.1 fWAR Fraley, like Bishop, has struggled in massively sporadic opportunities, despite production in Triple-A. Fraley isn’t the defender Bishop is, but he has more power to offer and a better overall outlook at the plate. He’ll need to make more contact, but it’s petty to harp on performance without a larger sample. While I think he and Bishop should team up as the left-field combo to start the season — barring a veteran addition to the roster — Fraley may end up starting in center for Tacoma whenever the MiLB season gets under way this spring. Taylor Trammell, OF Trammell did not play in the big leagues last season, but starts 2021 as a top-10 prospect in one of the top 10 farm systems in baseball. He’s a hit, run and defend player, but there’s untapped power potential, and he may be ready for the show sometime this season. I’ll have comps and tools grades for Trammell, and 39 other prospects later in February. Cal Raleigh, C Raleigh, a top-10 prospect, may debut in 2021, but he’s starting the season in the minors as Tacoma’s No. 1 catcher. There’s above-average power to offset a below-average but playable hit tool, and he makes up for a lack of prototypical athleticism with smarts, framing and throwing accuracy. The arm is at least average in strength. He’s a better left-handed hitter but he’s had enough success from the right side to maintain an advantage and continue switch hitting, though there’s also more power from the left side. Except to see Raleigh at some point in 2021, but likely later in the season, perhaps merely a September call-up. The new roster rules, however, increase the chances Raleigh is summoned prior to the mandatory 28-man rosters the final month of the regular season. Sam Travis, 1B/OF Travis offers a chance to hit for average with average power, but at 27 he’s depth at first base, and might be Tacoma’s starter if he remains with the org throughout spring training. Brian O’Keefe, C O’Keefe, 27, is back with Seattle for Year 2 after spending six years in the Cardinals system. O’Keefe leaves a lot to be desired defensively, though there’s been progress the past two years. He offers 60 raw power, but a 35-grade hit tool has held him back. O’Keefe may be the frontrunner to start 2021 as Raleigh’s catching mate in Tacoma, though he does have competition. Jarred Kelenic, OF Kelenic has played 21 games above Advanced-A ball yet we’re certain to see him at T-Mobile in 2021. He won’t turn 22 until July, so he likely debuts at 21, and brings a little bit of everything to the table as a player. He can defend — he’s more than playable in center, though as he’s filled out he’s lost some first-step explosion — he can throw, he carries above-average speed into the season, and the hit and power tools are well above average. There’s great potential for the weirdest scenario to develop for Kelenic and the Mariners. Let’s say Seattle leaves Peoria with a plan to call up Kelenic once the service time threshold passes just over two weeks into the season. That would make it roughly the middle of April. The MiLB season isn’t likely to start until May at the earliest with current plans to limit the number of players at the complexes to the ‘big league’ camps. Kelenic could, in theory, stay back in Peoria for a little over two weeks, then join the Mariners somewhat cold, not having real games to play in the meantime. He’d essentially have an extended spring training. Either way, the club’s top prospect will be seen at The Mobi pretty early in the season. Carter Bins, C Bins is a defensive-minded backstop, but has bat speed and good strike zone judgment, suggesting there’s power to be found. He carries a backup profile into the season, and likely starts 2021 in Everett, oddly, where he’s played every game of his career thus far. Julio Rodriguez, OF He comes with star-level upside led by 65 raw power, but he’s a decent athlete and should be able to hold down right field where he has a 65 or 70-grade arm and likes to prove it. In many defensive regards, he’s very Jay Buhner-like. He has a lot of work to do, however, and represents one of the more intriguing player development decisions of the spring for the Mariners: Where does Rodriguez begin his 2021 season? He just turned 20 in late December, has just 97 games of professional experience and has just 84 games above rookie ball — 17 of those finished out the 2019 season in Advanced-A. He was hurt for much of last summer and his only real development time has come this winter, and without good results. The smart route is Double-A Arkansas to start, with an open mind as to how quickly he can move to Triple-A. The goal here should be to expose to him to the best pitching possible while giving him a real chance to have some success in the meantime. Let him make an adjustment or two, put it into play with good results for at least a few months, then move up a level. Dillon Thomas, OF Thomas, 28, was a fourth-round pick in 2011 by the Rockies and reached as high as Triple-A. He spent all of 2019 in Double-A with the Brewers. He’s a big swinger with above-average raw power. There’s been far too much swing and miss in his game, but he runs well and is a solid defender in the outfield corners. Jantzen Witte, 1B/3B Witte, 31, spent seven seasons in the Boston Red Sox organization and comes to Seattle as corner-infield depth. He has a shot to stick as an option in Triple-A Tacoma. Witte has never hit for power, however, so this signing and invite remain as puzzling as it was when the ink was damp. Josh Morgan, C Morgan just turned 25 and is a converted infielder, having just started to catch in 2018 (319 innings that year, nine in 2019). As a bat he has patience and discipline, but no real power, but his athleticism suggests a chance to catch. He’s been adding strength and good weight to his frame. Jordan Cowan, 2B Cowan, a product of Kentlake High School, doesn’t wow you in any manner, but after seven years has a career .270 average in the minors and is capable at second, short and third. Jose Godoy, C Godoy has shown big-league defensive abilities, including an above-average throwing arm. The swing needs a lot of work abut he offers legit bat speed, and bats left-handed, sometime a slight advantage for catchers when all else is equal. Godoy has a good chance to beat out O’Keefe for a spot on Tacoma’s roster to work with Raleigh. Eric Filia, OF Filia has hit for average at every level, but has failed three drug tests and served two suspensions. He also was suspended at UCLA for plagiarism. So, despite the hit tool, there are some off-the-field concerns. But personally, my concerns in regards to the failed drug tests are about Filia the person, not Filia the baseball player. They were drugs of abuse, not PEDs. On the field, I also have issues with Filia’s prospects. Yes, he’s hit everywhere, carrying a career .320 average and .412 OBP in the minors into spring training. But he’s also always been old for the level at every stop but one, and offers little to zero defensive value. He was 23 when he batted .362/.450/.496 in short-season ball in 2016. He was more than a year older than the average player the following season in Modesto when he hit .326/.407/.434. That trend continue until 2019 when he was exactly the average age of his peers in the PCL. Without power or defensive value, it’s difficult to project Filia as more than an up-and-down, part-time player. He’s now 27 and running out of time. Luis Liberato, OF There was a time Liberato was merely a good athlete that lacked instincts in all facets. While he doesn’t project to hit enough for the majors, he does offer plus speed and above-average defense in center. He also throws well, and with accuracy. Liberato isn’t much of a prospect anymore at 25 and having not hit above Class-A Modesto.Go!

Unless regular-scheduled programming is preempted by an agreement between the owners and the MLBPA, the Seattle Mariners, and 29 other clubs, are due to report for spring training in the next several days. This suggests at least a near-complete list of report-date rosters, so let’s go through this group by group. Projected Starting Rotation With the Mariners sticking with a six-man rotation, much to the apparent chagrin of one Marco Gonzales, bless his heart (I agree with him), it looks like their six are already in camp — barring a last-second free-agent addition or trade that ultimately upgrades the unit, which isn’t a far-fetched possibility. Marco Gonzales SNK: 87-90 (45.3%) CUT: 84-86 (24.3%) CB: 74-77 (16.1%) CH: 80-82 (14.4%) One of the more underappreciated players in baseball, Gonzales is coming off 3.5, 3.7 and 2.0 fWAR season, the latter in just 11 starts. It’s plus-plus control, plus command and two above-average pitches, including a cutter that allows him to pitch effectively on the edges versus right-handed batters. His changeup is typically at least average and has flashed plus, but he didn’t even have it for most of 2020. It’s a unique skill set in 2021, but Gonzales induces weak contact by punching the entire strike zone with his variety of stuff, despite the lack of velocity. His sinker doesn’t induce ground balls (8.5% of balls in play in 2020) and he doesn’t generate a lot of swings and misses (8.4%) with anything. Gonzales is the left-handed Kyle Hendricks, and it’s about time folks start realizing it. UPDATE: The Mariners’ signing of Paxton changes the rotation projection. James Paxton (2019) 4FB: 93-97 (53.7%) 2FB: 93-96 (6.2%) CUT: 84-87 (20.2%) CB: 80-83 (18.6%) CH: 84-87 (1.2%) Paxton made just five starts in 2020 but was up to 94 in a workout in late December in front of several clubs. When hes right, he’ll live at 95-plus and dominate with a plus knuckle curveball and keep-honest cutter-slider. At times the cutter is plus, too, and he’s flashed a useful changeup. Seattle gave him $8.5 million guaranteed, so we can assume they believe he’s healthy and will start the season as one of their six rotations arms. Yusei Kikuchi 4FB: 93-97 (37.5%) CUT: 91-94 (39.9%) SL: 82-85 (16.0%) CH: 85-88 (6.3%) Kikuchi took a step forward in 2020, posting a 3.30 FIP in nine starts. While his control took a few step backs (10.3% walks versus 6.9% in 2019), his strikeout rate went up 50% to 24.2% and he posted a 12.1% swinging strike rate, up nearly four percent from the previous season. He also induced more ground balls by nearly eight percent, perhaps as a result of the increased use of the cutter, which was classified as a slider in 2019. The slider he used in ’20 was a better version, nearly three miles-per-hour slower, and he ditched the mid-70s curveball, which looked pretty but was a hanger waiting to happen. In general, Kikuchi needs to throw more strikes, particularly early un counts to avoid 2-0 and 3-1 counts, and if he could get a bit more from his changeup and slider we could look up at the end of the season and see an average or better 26-28-start season. Justus Sheffield SNK: 91-95 (47.2%) SL: 81-84 (33.5%) CH: 85-88 (18.4%) Seattle has essentially turned Sheffield from a thrower to a pitcher. He’s using a sinker instead of a four-seam fastball and it’s helped the lefty stay off the barrel and continue to generate ground balls. The slider is plus and a legitimate mid-level swing-and-miss offering, and the changeup had its moments and was regularly a part of his attack. The next step for Sheffield is command. He improved his ability to throw strikes with a more consistent, athletic delivery in 2020 versus 2019, but locating his fastball better, particularly versus right-handed batters, sets up the southpaw for a strong mid-rotation role. Chris Flexen 4FB: 91-95 SL: 85-89 CB: 77-80 CH: 82-85 Flexen spent 2020 in the KBO and enters 2021 as a rather large unknown in terms of how his stuff will play versus big-league bats. Flexen is built like a starter and has the delivery for it, bit in his time with the New York Mets (2018-19) he was used in relief and had problems throwing strikes in short stays. His numbers in Korea line up with his minor league performances, though, so it’s not entirely out of line with his abilities, at least in terms of throwing strikes. He used his curveball a lot more last season, which appears to be a big reason why he had success in 21 starts (2.74 FIP, 116.2 IP). Whether it’s a swing-and-miss pitch in the states remains to be seen, but Seattle is committed to giving him a chance to start for the long haul. The good news is, the raw stuff suggests it should at least be fun. Justin Dunn 4FB: 90-93 (53.8%) SL: 82-85 (15.2%) CB: 78-81 (23.8%) CH: 86-88 (6.0%) Dunn battled in 2020, but barely survived innings and starts. He ended the year with a FIP and xFIP over six, a 45% hard-hit rate and 19.2%-15.7% strikeouts-to-walks comparison. Too many walks and hard-hit balls, and not enough strikeouts, especially considering the flyball stuff. The lazy projection here is to banish Dunn to the bullpen, but I’m not sure that’s the answer for the right-hander, who saw his fastball dip a full tick, sometimes two, from mid-season 2019 to late-season 2019 and all of 2020. Velocity isn’t the only issue, however. Neither breaking ball looked better than fringe-average and there’s no semblance of a useful changeup. Not pretending to know what Seattle plans to do with Dunn, but unless there’s significant improvement shown in March he’ll warrant a trip back to the minors. Dunn’s stuff must become more consistently competitive to last in the majors. Rotation Depth Nick Margevicius 4FB: 88-92 (64.1%) SL: 83-86 (15.8%) CB: 69-72 (11.4%) CH: 81-84 (8.7%) Margevicius, who won’t turn 25 until June, and added two mphs to his fastball in 2020, touching 93 and seeing 91-92 just about every time out, starter or reliever. It’s a legit four-pitch mix with average command and above-average strike-throwing, but there’s no sign of an out pitch and the stuff has flyball tendencies. Essentially, Margevicius is a poor-man’s Marco Gonzales, but with some upside considering age and physical projection I like Margevicius as a sleeper if he’s given the chance to start consistently. He may get that chance from the outset in 2021 if Dunn is moved to the bullpen or shipped to Tacoma early. Ljay Newsome 4FB: 90-93 (49.4%) CB: 76-79 (26.7%) CH: 83-86 (23.9%) Newsome held his velo this past summer, which is a good sign it’s here to stay after the right-hander built up his arm strength and arm speed in 2019. The stuff was rather ordinary in 2020, but he focused on a three-pitch attack and pounded the strike zone. He’s shown a cutter in the minors which may be unveiled in 2021 in attempt to compete better versus left-handed hitters, who crushed him in 2020 (.379/.400/.724) in 30 batters faced. We also didn’t see the good changeup much, which impacted his ability to pitch to lefties, too. I don’t see a good chance the stuff ticks up enough for a high-value relief role, but a valuable swing arm or back-end starter remains within his projection. Robert Dugger SNK: 91-93 (10.8%) 4FB: 91-94 (42.9%) SL: 80-84 (26.9%) CB: 75-78 (16.5%) CH: 83-85 (2.8%) Dugger could find himself in a relief role where he may have a better chance to see the majors in 2021 for Seattle, but he’s primarily been a starter with mixed results, both in the minors and in the show. He has 45 big-league innings the past two seasons but ha shad problems missing bats and keeping the ball in the yard, a combo with which pitchers never want to be associated. Dugger is athletic with good arm speed. The curveball is above-average with two plane break and the slider flashes as a weapon. It’s a power arsenal but without the big fastball, though there’s good run to his arm side and he gets some ride up in the zone, too. As a full-time reliever we could see a bigger uptick in velo, so keep an eye on that this spring. Logan Gilbert (NRI) 4FB: 92-96 CB: 75-78 SL: 81-85 CH: 84-87 Gilbert doesn’t have great stuff, but it’s good, and it’s consistent, as is his present 50-grade command. The changeup still lags behind both breaking balls, but there’s a foundation there and it will flash above-average. He’s built like a frontline arm and despite less-than-elite velocity, he will touch 96-97 at times and simply needs to show he can stay out of the middle of the zone, both vertically and horizontally. He’s unlikely to make the club out of spring training, but as long as he’s healthy he’ll see a lot of innings in the majors in 2021. Roenis Elias (NRI) 4FB: 93-96 (50.9%) SNK: 92-96 (4.8%) CB: 76-79 (13.3%) CH: 85-88 (29.1%) Elias opted out last season and split 2019 between the Mariners and the Nationals. He was traded to Washington with RHP Hunter Strickland in exchange for RHP Elvis Alvarado, and lefties Taylor Guilbeau and Aaron Fletcher. His arm should be fresh and his changeup has been more of a weapon for him the past two seasons. Elias is the most likely NRI to make the club. Darren McCaughan (NRI) 4FB: 90-94 CB: 77-81 CH: 84-88 McCaughan’s stuff suggests relief work, as does the delivery. He throws a lot of fastballs and the secondaries need a lot of work from an aesthetic standpoint, but he hides the ball well and the movement on the hard changeup is late and to his arm side. He also throws from a lower arm slot — I’d call it slightly below 3/4 — and might offer a chance at a good sinker-slider combo if the club points him in the direction of relief work. Ian McKinney (NRI) 4FB: 88-93 CB: 75-78 CH: 81-84 McKinney is undersized but repeats his delivery well and owns what might be the best curveball in the organization — including the top prospects and current big-league arms. His fastball sits 89-91 mph, but will touch 93 with life, and plays up thanks to a deceptive delivery. McKinney’s changeup is useful, too, and he’ll live on the outer edge versus right-handed batters with all three pitches. He throws strikes and can locate the breaking ball. His severe reverse splits create some fog in his projection. Either way, the size and stuff suggest swing arm or multi-inning reliever, but there’s pitchability and playable stuff here if deployed strategically, and 2021 could be the year he gets a shot. Keep an eye on McKinney as a bullpen option. Projected Bullpen I’ll go eight deep here, even with a six-man rotation, since the roster will be at 26. We may even see times there are nine relievers, which is too many, but until the league adds a pitcher limit this is the world in which we live. Rafael Montero 4FB: 94-98 (49.5%) SNK: 94-97 (24.2%) SL: 85-88 (7.3%) CH: 88-91 (20.8%) Montero is a fastball-changeup arm, using two heaters in 2020 to mix up the movement and allow him to pitch to more areas of the zone effectively. He was very good versus both lefties and righties in 2020, though RHBs got him for decent pop (.452 SLG). This is where the below-average slider impacts the results and puts more pressure on Montero’s fastball command. He’ll get the first shot to serve as closer, though I sense the Mariners may deploy their bullpen a little differently in 2021 than in years past. If so, Montero will see more time in the 8th inning instead of being saved for the save. Kendall Graveman 4FB: 93-97 (8.5%) 2FB: 93-97 (59.6%) CUT: 89-92 (9.7%) CB: 78-81 (5.5%) CH: 87-90 (16.7%) I still prefer Graveman as a starter, but his injury appears to be the driving force to relief work. In order to make it work, we may see the veteran pare down his arsenal a bit, and could see an increase in four-seamers — or fastballs in general — up in the zone. The curveball is his worst pitch — and his least used — so unless there’s a plan involving improvement with that offering, it may be the first to go. Graveman is difficult to project for lack of experience in a bullpen role, but as a starter he’s been hit pretty hard, hasn’t missed bats, and his ground ball rate was down to 48.1% last season. I think of Graveman as the Wild Card for the Mariners; if his stuff ticks up and he’s able to find more whiffs, he could be Montero’s main setup man. Otherwise, and most likely, he’ll fit a multi-inning middle role who shouldn’t be asked to dig the club out of tough situations. Keynan Middleton 4FB: 95-99 (59.0%) SL: 86-89 (22.4%) CH: 87-90 (18.6% Middleton’s intrigue starts with the fastball, which is occasionally into triple digits with elite spin rates, suggesting there may be room to miss more bats with it. He does a good job avoiding the barrel and both secondaries produce swings and misses. He hasn’t remained health since 2017 thanks to Tommy John surgery and at least one significant setback in his recovery, but the velo was back in 2020. Control has held back the right-hander, too, starting with a career 10% walk rate. Anthony Misiewicz 4FB: 92-96 (24.4%) CUT: 89-91 (52.4%) CB: 81-84 (23.2%) Misiewicz has good enough stuff to turn into a Swiss Army Knife option out of the bullpen, covering multiple innings and dominating left-handed batters (.216/.256/.243 in 2020). He struggled versus right-handed hitters, however, enough to suggest he’ll need to be better to warrant such a role, or even more than a bridge in the middle of the game. Only five relievers in MLB used their cutters more than Misiewicz, but that’s certainly not a bad thing, in and of itself. Perhaps more curveballs — his best swing-and-miss pitch — can help, but this may be about fastball command. For now, he remains one of the more reliable arms in the Mariners bullpen, and carries some upside into the season — his first full year in the big leagues. Casey Sadler 2FB: 92-95 (35.3%) CUT: 88-90 (23.0%) CB: 79-82 (37.1%) Sadler flashed a bit the past two seasons split between four clubs, but saw a spike in swinging strike percentage to 12.9 in 19.1 innings a year ago and that rate held steady in seven appearances with the Mariners in September. The curveball is the out pitch, posting 44.4% whiff rate and 28% put-away rate in 2020. He’s out of options, so if it’s a close race for one of the spots, Sadler may win out as a result, but he might just be a solid middle reliever if he can get enough from his fastball and cutter to get the the curveball with two strikes. Yohan Ramirez 4FB: 94-97 (59.8%) SL: 81-84 (40.2%) Unlike a year ago the Mariners can option Ramirez to Triple-A for more work and there’s certainly a chance they do that from the get-go in 2021. The next veteran reliever signing to guaranteed dollars may very well suggest that’s the plan, if the club isn’t there already. Ramirez is athletic with a loose arm and he’s up to 98 mph with the fastball. There’s life on the pitch and enough of it to avoid the barrel, setting up a slider that carries plus upside (43% whiff, 27% put-away). Even fringe-average strike throwing likely turns Ramirez into a setup type, but he walked 21.3% of the batters he faced in 2020. Will Vest 4FB: 93-98 SL: 85-88 CH: 83-86 As a starter in the Florida State League back in 2018, Vest was 92-94 mph with a two-seamer, backed by a power slider at 84-86 and developing changeup, Since then, in relief and employing a more aggressive approach and delivery, the velocity has ticked up (mostly 94-96, but some 97-98, reportedly), the slider has more shape, and the changeup is more consistent with better velocity differential off the fastball. He’s athletic, and the delivery has become repeatable, suggesting there’s stuff and command growth to follow, which, in turn, suggests Vest has a good chance to not only stay up all season as a Rule 5 pick but help the Mariners bullpen and project well for the future. One scout told me if the slider keeps going in the direction it is, it’s plus, and Vest is a legitimate three-pitch option. Erik Swanson 4FB: 94-97 (74.5%) SL: 87-89 (17.4%) CH: 81-84 (6.7%) Swanson is a bubble arm to start the spring and has options left, but he flashed at 99 mph last summer to prove the arm strength is there for a successful transition. But he’ll need more than velocity to get there; the slider is well below average, the control is fine but the command is not and we’ve yet to see him string together consistent outings. I’m curious about the development of the changeup, which, even if not a plus offering, could help relieve the stress on everything else, but first and foremost on the lost of things to do has to be getting that slider up to par. Bullpen Depth Brandon Brennan SNK: 92-95 (31.8%) CH: 82-85 (38.5%) SL: 85-88 (37.6%) A healthy Brennan is a favorite to make the club, so he’s only down in here because, well, he missed most of 2020 part of 2019 with injuries. But he also has has issues throwing strikes consistently, rolling out a 12.2% walk rate in 44 games back in 2019, the last available qualifying sample. When he’s right, Brennan is consistently 92-94 mph with armside run and sink and a plus changeup that flashes plus-plus. Both pitches induce ground balls at a high rate. Brady Lail (NRI) SNK: 89-92 (20.0%) CUT: 84-87 (15.3%) CB: 78-81 (19.3%) CH: 85-87 (15.0%) Lail reminds me some of Nick Vincent, sans the high-zone four-seam fastball value that essentially made Vincent what he was. Lail’s mix is fringey, but the curveball, changeup, and sinker are average pitches. Considering the ordinary stuff, Lail’s control and command need to be better. He’s walked 10% of the batters he’s faced as a major leaguer, and with no swing-and-miss pitch it’s all about weak contact. Joey Gerber 4FB: 92-95 (27.5%) SNK: 92-95 (37.8%) SL: 83-86 (34.8%) Gerber’s stuff didn’t show well in the big leagues last season; I’ve seen him 93-97 with more arm side run and a better slider. If he’s going to make the club and eventually stay in the majors he’ll need the slider to pitch away from right-handed batters and induce whiffs. Gerber’s 9.7% strikeout rate screams the need for adjustments, but he did keep the ball in the yard, as he has in the minors, and there’s likely more of which to take advantage with his deceptive delivery, so I still think he’s a quality arm, he just happens to be one without high probability to start 2021 hot — or in the bigs. Domingo Tapia 4FB: 96-101 (38.8%) SNK: 97-101 (37.5%) SL: 85-88 (18.8%) Tapia, who also has a nearly-never used low-90s changeup, is all arm strength at this point. He does get some swings and misses from the heater, though, so it’s a great place to start. Problem is, he’s 29 and the slider as been stagnant for years, so it appears it will take a brand new idea to get a second pitch into the holster. Aaron Fletcher SNK: 92-95 (65.3%) SL: 80-83 (21.5%) CH: 79-82 (13.2%) Fletcher’s stuff outweighs his present ability to execute it effectively. In the minors, the lefty pounded the strike zone with his fastball and swept the slider for some whiffs and called strikes. There’s deception in the delivery but he needs to repeat to become a factor and ultimately use the secondaries more often. The bullpen may be comprised of a starter such as Newsome or Dugger if they don’t make the club as a starter, and Andres Munoz is expected to be back over the summer; Munoz was acquired from the San Diego Padres in the trade that sent Austin Nola to the NL West. Sam Delaplane Delaplane is a reliever-only fastball-curveball arm likely built for short outings. The four-seamer is up to 95 mph and the curveball is a tight spinner with downward break, potentially a swing-and-miss pitch. Wyatt Mills Mills is a sidearmer with a sinker-slider combo. He’s up to 97 mph and comfortably 92-94 with natural sink and run. Juan Then Then is still on track to see the rotation in Modesto, but could move quickly in a relief role. He was up to 99 mph in the fall and his slider has sharpened since the trade from the Yankees. Gerson Bautista (NRI) Coming off injury, Bautista is looking to get his velocity back, but also show vast improvement to his control. The slider is average or better and he misses bats with a 94-99 mph fastballs. JT Chargois (NRI) The sinker-slider righty is up to 98 mph and whiffed 31.8% of the batters he faced in 21.1 innings with the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2019. If he’s healthy and throws strikes in March, he’s making the club. Nick Duron (NRI) The 25-year-old is a loose-armed right-hander up to 96 mph in relief. He has a low-to-mid-80s sider and a 40-grade changeup he doesn’t use much out of the bullpen. More likely to serve as depth in Triple-A. Moises Gomez (NRI) Gomez, 24, came over from the Twins organization. He’s 95-99 mph with an average slider, and has always missed bats. He’s a pure reliever likely set to start the season in the upper minors, but if he finds a way to throw more strikes he could find his way to the majors by year’s end. Taylor Guerrieri (NRI) Sinker up to 96 mph, curveball, and changeup, but the right-hander has battled injuries on his path to the big leagues. Spent 2020 with the Texas Rangers (5.38 FIP, 22% K, 18% BB), putting up good ground ball numbers. Matt Magill (NRI) At times, Magill was the Mariners best reliever in 2019, especially the second half of the season once GM Jerry Dipoto had traded away the seasoned veterans in July. Fastball up to 96, above-average curveball, average cutter. If healthy, good shot to make the club. Vinny Nittoli (NRI) Nittoli is now 30 and has yet to make his big-league debut, but he’s up to 95 mph and pitches well up in the zone thanks to some run and ride. The slider is at least average and breaks late, and the curveball flashes, too. Paul Sewald (NRI) The four-year veteran is 91-94 with a slider and changeup. He was serviceable 2017-2019, but struggled in five outings last season. Drew Steckenrider (NRI) The 30-year-old didn’t pitch in 2020, but lives in the mid-90s with a power curveball. He needs to find the zone more consistently, but the raw stuff is there. Jimmy Yacabonis (NRI) The right-hander is up to 95 with a two-seamer to set up a projectable slider and fringe-average changeup. Penn Murfee Murfee’s neither on the 40-man roster nor on the non-roster invitee list, but I think he should be. He doesn’t throw hard, but is another sidearmer with command and a good slider. In relief the fastball may tick up a bit.Go!

I’m sensing four things buzzing around the ‘sphere that is Seattle Mariners fandom. One, that the Mariners’ rebuild is very close to complete. Two, that the club’s efforts will go off without a hitch. Three, that successful rebuilds means a World Series, and otherwise it’s a failure. And four, that if the rebuild isn’t successful that it was a mistake in the first place. None of the above are true. Let’s chat. What Makes for a Successful Rebuild? Most in the industry would agree a successful rebuild can mean different things. Of course, a World Series appearance, win or lose, will certainly bear the aesthetics of a successful rebuilding project. For Seattle, it’s about opening an extended window of opportunity, and that opportunity should result in several playoff-caliber teams and at least one legitimate chance at a World Series — hopefully two or more — over the course of 5-plus seasons. Anything short of that and it would be fair to suggest the rebuild didn’t work. One can argue, however, a rebuild is successful if it simply improves the long-term health of the organization and paves the way for better times, or as one front-office exec said this winter, “are they better off, ultimately and for the long haul, for having gone through that process? If so, that’s healthy progress, and good process. That’s the floor, and a lot better than spending a $160 million, $170 million, for what amounts to a mediocrity … on the upside.” But there’s some gray area between success and failure. It’s really not plausible to believe the Mariners’ “reimagining” can end in failure, considering the foundation has unequivocally been set up for long-term success. But a true success? While this neutral patch includes a lot of subjectivity, it’s difficult to see tossing the ‘success’ label on it if there aren’t playoff appearances … plural.  So, What if There Aren’t Multiple Postseason Berths? Whether or not the club’s rebuild ends in the kind of success that includes several playoff appearances, it was the right move for the Mariners after the 2018 season. The roster and payroll situation was on the fast-track to nowhere, and GM Jerry Dipoto took full advantage of the assets he had before they lost value by way of service time and/or performance. And at the very least, Dipoto has put together strong scouting and player development department, and replenished the farm system into near-elite status. What that does is reduce the risk of the rebuild itself — the exact opposite of running out pricey, aging veterans year after year and hoping for the best, which is what the club did the five season prior to Dipoto’s arrival, and to a lesser extent the first three of his tenure. But the Mariners didn’t just start a rebuild after the 2018 season, they changed their DNA, which may be the most underappreciated aspect of the entire process, and one that pretty much is never discussed by, well, anyone. Even once the club is no longer in what is often referred to as ‘rebuild mode,’ among other terms, they’re not going to conduct business in the same manner as before. We saw some of this in action prior to  the 2018-19 offseason, but it’s clear Dipoto is capable of — and prefers — eating clean, so to speak. A safer, more organic manner in which to acquire high-end talent, and now with some evidence rearing it’s gorgeous face in the majors that it’s working. The way Dipoto has gone about things the past two years isn’t going to change. Sure, at some point soon — starting now, really, at least on some level — the club will start acquiring more proven talents rather than focusing on long-term impact and control years, but operational strategies will remain. The ‘what’ will be different, the ‘how’ will not, and that’s perhaps the most meaningful difference between Dipoto’s Mariners and the regimes that came before over the last 15-plus seasons. The yet-to-be-asked-or-addressed question now is “how long without ‘success’ markers, i.e. a few postseason berths, before the rebuilding efforts can be deemed unsuccessful?” When asked, a handful of assistant GMs and other front office types varied in response. “I think it depends on the expectations,” a Mariners rival exec said. “If you’re the Cubs right now, you’re not going to accept three or four losing seasons in a row, not in that market. So once all the revenues return, the clock starts ticking. With those resources, Jed (Hoyer) won’t get five years without winning some. It’s a different kind of rebuild — it’s more of a retool, and success means fighting in the heavyweight class. If you’re the Pirates, Ben Cherington is going to get time, he deserves time, and his job will be safe, and should be, if he gets them back to October at all.” A former GM agrees about expectations, but more specific to Seattle’s situation said “we should stop talking about (mid-market teams and small-market teams) like they shouldn’t have the same expectations, at least internally, and they all should act like it, so it’s apparent to the rest of baseball and the fans. But if you told me in five years Seattle (has home-field advantage in) a few playoff series, or better? That’s a success. Look at where they were, and you can build on whatever the results of their current efforts are, too.” Fans are always going to have their own standards, and the club’s own hopes certainly play a role, but I’ll stick with my ‘it’s already a non-failure’ tag until testing is complete and calls for more final grades. Is the Rebuild Almost Complete? Will it go off Without a Hitch? No, it’s not almost complete, and no it will not go smoothly. When the club set out on their path to rebuild pretty much from scratch, it had the look of a 5-year process. They’ve moved along a little faster than did the Houston Astros, who lost 416 games the first four seasons of their tear-down last decade and didn’t win more than 86 games until Year 7 when they started a three-year run of 101 or more victories. They got back to respectability for two years prior to that run, winning 86 and 84 games respectively in Years 5 and 6., and the Mariners’ pace appears set to get to this point by Year 3 or 4. But the resulting high-point of the process may not hit a the same level, and it may take just as long as it took Houston to get there. On the fast track, the Mariners’ ‘rebuild’ won’t be complete for at least two years, and there’s a decent chance it takes even longer. The hope, and it’s a reasonable one at that, is the club can win some during the latter years of the rebuilding stages, which may consist of 2022 and 2023, if not 2021 as well. And here’s where the “will not go smoothly” comes into play. A hurtful chunk of the young talent the club has acquired over the last two-plus years will either take longer than is ideal to develop into the impact players the club needs them to be, or they’ll fail to reach such levels altogether, which in turn can, and likely will, prolong the club’s efforts to turn into a contending club. In a perfect world, Kyle Lewis takes a full step forward and looks like a star, Jarred Kelenic and Logan Gilbert hit the majors in 2021 and prove their worth, show flashes of impact performances and by the end of the 2022 season look like all-stars in their own right, while the next wave, Cal Raleigh, George Kirby, Emerson Hancock, Julio Rodriguez, start their own process toward similar outcomes. But that’s not the way it works. Prospects fail, they struggle, sometimes even the best talents take years to develop, and sometimes they just don’t turn out to be the core pieces clubs hope they will be. This is yet another reason why a club in Seattle’s current position, has no business moving potential high-impact talent — the Mariners need to throw as many darts at the board as they possibly can to land on a core they can build upon through such impact trades and/or free agent signings in order to get to where they want to be. Thus far, Dipoto has gathered quite the assortment of arrows in his quiver, and if one breaks there’s another behind it ready to be fired at the target. But there will be misses. Take the Astros, who reached the ultimate pinnacle, winning a World Series and getting to two as a result of the rebuilding process they began after the 2010 season. In 2015 they were hoping Jonathan Singleton would break through. They even gave him the Evan White contract two years prior. Singleton struggled so mightily he was DFA’d in November, 2016. Houston was also high on catcher Hank Conger, who didn’t pan out, 1B A.J. Reed, and catcher Jason Castro, who was good enough to stick for awhile but never became what they hoped he would. The same can be said for OF Preston Tucker, and 1B Tyler White. Add right-handers Jordan Lyles and Jared Cosart, 3B Matt Dominguez, and CF Jake Marisnick to the mix. At some level, and at some point between 2012 and 2016 when the club broke through, all of those players failed to reach the kind of impact status the Astros hoped. So rather than busting through in 2013, 2014 or 2015, it took until 2016 — Year 7 of the rebuild — for the Astros to do some damage. We can go through every legitimate rebuild of the last 20 years and come to the same results, and find even more glaring examples, but the Astros’ rebuild was highly successful, and was more recent than others, so it serves as perhaps the best precedent available for this conversation. So, since there will be misses along the way as Seattle moves toward competitive rosters and mostly organically, the path from bad to mediocre, mediocre to to good, and good to great, will be anything but a smooth ride. Now, if you asked me, right now, if I think Seattle wins 90 or more games before what would be Year 7 since the rebuild began — 2025 — I’d say yes, and I’d put my money where my mouth is. But keep your seatbelts fastened, because it’s unlikely to be right around corner, and it’s absolutely not going to come without potholes.Go!