Author: Luke Arkins

Face it baseball fans, the sabermetric revolution is over. The nerds won. Advanced metrics influence roster moves, player development, and gameday strategy for all 30 MLB teams. Ironically, many local and national broadcasters resist using saber-stats despite knowing the clubs they cover depend on this information. Instead, booths across the league continue relying on generations-old conventional numbers when discussing players. It’s as if these holdouts prefer being stuck in a time loop over embracing the future. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not advocating broadcasters altogether scrap conventional stats that were popular when your grandparents were your age. Baseball has a rich history and should preserve it. On the other hand, ducking innovation is a disservice to fans. Isn’t the goal of a game-caller to convey the most meaningful information available to the fan? If the answer is yes, advanced metrics, in some form, have a place in every broadcast. Again, there’s no need to abandon conventional stats such as AVG and RBI for hitters or wins, ERA, and saves for pitchers. These standards, generally preferred by longtime fans, should remain part of our lexicon. That said, it wouldn’t hurt for broadcasters to use advanced thinking when using old-school numbers. Doing so would prevent providing misleading info to fans and might even open the door to introducing the new stuff. Take RBI, for example. Driving in runs is a skill deserving of recognition. But the number of RBI a player has may not correctly reflect his ability. Other than the solo home run, it takes base runners for the batter to generate an RBI. Yes, the man at the plate has to do his part. But in reality, the quality of the lineup and its ability to provide RBI opportunities is a large factor rarely mentioned. Consider this; the 100-RBI season has long been considered a benchmark of offensive excellence. Yet, Mike Trout, one of the best players ever, has accomplished the feat just three times since his 2012 Rookie of the Year season. A retired player, David Ortiz, did it four times during the same span and he hasn’t played since 2016. So has Trout’s teammate, Albert Pujols (because he had Trout to drive in). Does anyone for an instant believe either of these players were better than Mike Trout since he debuted? Instead of touting a hitter’s RBI total, why not focus on the stats measuring the skills needed to drive in runs – reaching base (OBP) and/or slugging (SLG). If the player is adept at both skills, use OPS. Keep the RBI available for the diehards. But why not place the other stats on the screen also? Some local broadcasters are already taking steps in that direction. So how might broadcasters incorporate new-fangled metrics without losing the attention of the casual viewer? Use those new numbers when relevant to the game situation or as a positive reinforcement of a player’s achievements. Whenever possible, deliver the stat in a relatable context – compare a player to the league-average player in some way. Many advanced stats are designed to do just that. Most importantly, avoid explaining how the sausage is made. Honestly, how many casual fans know how to calculate AVG or SLG? Just provide a quick explanation, how the stat relates to the player being discussed, and then move on. That should suffice for the casual fan. The nerds already know how the sausage is made – they’re nerds! On-screen graphics are a great way to interject advanced metrics into the consciousness of viewers. Weighted runs created plus (wRC+) quantifies a hitter’s overall production. Last year, Kyle Seager had a 118 wRC+. Since a 100 wRC+ is always average, that means Seager was 18-percent more productive than the average player. This screenshot from a Mariners broadcast last night says all that with a picture. Seeing Seager’s wRC+ in this light is something Mariners fans will probably appreciate, even if they’re not seam-heads. Their veteran third baseman was above average offensively in 2020. Fans intuitively knew this already. But now, they have an over-arching modern stat quantifying his productivity. How can that be a bad thing? It can’t. Broadcasts can also utilize graphics to illustrate pertinent stats – old and new – together in a fresh manner. That’s something fans of all generations should be able to accept. The below screenshot from a 2019 Mets game provides such an example. It’s a nice blend of conventional numbers with a few newer ones too. There’s even room for a sponsor’s name. Next up is another example from a Giants game in 2019. What’s fun about this graphic is it’s a product of the opposing team’s broadcast. AT&T SportsNet Rocky Mountain does a fine job of doing everything possible to inform their viewers. In this instance, we see different metrics included with the familiar stuff. The fan learns how Giants starter Drew Pomeranz fared using wins-losses and ERA and that opponents hit .305 against him. Also on display, Pomeranz’s pitch distribution and the AVG hitters produced against each of his pitches. That’s a lot of information in a snapshot. But it’s not overly nerdy and there’s something for everyone. Our next example is something I saw last night. ROOT Sports Northwest did a splendid job of using advanced metrics and familiar conventional numbers to demonstrate how Seattle’s Opening Day starter – Marco Gonzales – ranks among peers within the AL West division. Very quickly, the viewer is left with the impression Gonzales is much better than some at the national level perceive him. In fact, he’s been one of the best pitchers in the AL West over the past three seasons. This is not a narrative you’re likely to hear from a national outlet. Mariners fans will undoubtedly eat up this kind of information even though it’s not in the form of old-school numbers. A stat tending to receive consternation from the old-guard is wins above replacement (WAR). In the preceding, we see the FanGraphs version (fWAR) in use. Like it or not, WAR is increasingly used by fans, baseball writers, and Hall of Fame voters. Now, it’s ever-so-slowly creeping into booths across the league. There’s no reason WAR couldn’t be made available more often during broadcasts. Again, no big definition needed. Just note WAR captures the total value of a player. For a position player, that’s offense, defense, base running. From there, mention the all-time leaders in career WAR are Barry Bonds, Babe Ruth, Willie Mays, Ty Cobb, and Henry Aaron. Sure, some grumps will fixate on Bonds’ inclusion with the best to ever play due to alleged PED use. But the message should be clear to the open-minded – the greatest players in the game have the highest WAR. If you haven’t noticed already, you’re seeing a bunch of screenshots from Mariners games. Their broadcasts provided a plethora of tasty examples on how to communicate advanced stats to the viewer in a smart fashion – particularly in the last year. ROOT Sports Northwest has also found innovative ways to use graphics to deliver snapshot identification of player trends – both good and bad. Last year, a Mariners broadcast captured the difficulties the team’s former designated hitter, Daniel Vogelbach, had against fastballs later in the season. It was a quick and dirty look using batting average and whiff rate – the percent of misses on swing attempts. We even learn most of Vogelbach’s home runs came off fastballs. This was relevant and easily understandable information about a slugger, who wasn’t slugging for Seattle at the time. Just last night, ROOT Sports explored the platoon splits of reigning AL Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis. Based on batting average alone, a fan might believe the right-handed hitting Lewis struggled against southpaws last year. However, a deeper look by play-by-play announcer Aaron Goldsmith discovered Seattle’s star center fielder was actually productive against lefties and righties in 2020. Former player turned analyst Mike Blowers astutely noted Lewis had so few plate appearances last year that his batting average likely would’ve normalized with more playing time. That’s player-speak for “it’s a small sample size.” This is an instance when sabermetrics and a player’s perspective combined to provide a quality product to viewers. The preceding screenshot doesn’t explain “the why” behind Lewis’ negative split. But the visual does give us reason to pause and consider what Goldsmith and Blowers were discussing. It’s just not in the numbers arena where graphics can help make the broadcast more viewer-friendly. I found this particular visual of the Twins’ lineup and bench players to be quite useful. Not only do we see the batting order, the handedness of both starters and reserves is also presented. Beyond the numbers, there’s another element of game broadcasts that’s in dire need of upgrading across the league – inputs from either the analyst in the booth or the pre/postgame show. Too often, they don’t deliver their valuable insight in a useable form to the masses. Consider this. One of my wife’s responsibilities as a paralegal is retaining expert witnesses for trial. The right expert for the job must possess three important characteristics. They have to be competent and have credibility with the jury. Most importantly, an expert witness must be capable of elaborating on their area of expertise, which is probably complicated, in a manner that jurors will understand. The same rings true with on-air baseball analysis. Unfortunately, analysts frequently fall into the trap of directing their evaluation of a player at the knowledge level of peers in the booth or studio rather than the viewer on the couch. Discussing a hitter’s mechanics or a pitcher’s arm slot without context is tantamount to a nerd spouting off about run expectancy without explanation. Believe it or not, many casual fans have no clue what the analyst is trying to convey about the player. There’s a simple solution to this challenge – at least I think it’s simple. Photographic training aids for the viewer. After all, a picture is worth 1,000 words. Here’s an example from a Mets broadcast in 2019 when former player and now-analyst Keith Hernandez discussed changes in the hand placement of Braves outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr. from two different seasons. This is information the average fan can at least relate to on some level. From here, the analyst could potentially explain why the different hand positions mattered or how the different stances affected Acuña’s ability to make contact, hit for power, etc. And isn’t it cool for a local broadcaster to be discussing an opposing player? Learning moments for fans don’t necessarily have to involve the hometown nine. Greatness should be recognized and discussed regardless of uniform. Everything mentioned thus far is doable with the right mindset. Unfortunately, the greatest hurdle to enacting change may be convincing broadcasters to come along for the ride. A common reason heard to justify resistance to advanced metrics is the fear of alienating fans, who don’t want to understand the data. That sounds like an excuse. If a booth crew can’t convey the information to the audience in a useful manner, that’s on them. Not the metrics. Choose the correct stats for a given situation, learn them, and then explain them. Our examples from AT&T SportsNet, NBC Sports Bay Area, ROOT Sports, and SNY demonstrated how to deliver advanced metrics with relative ease and in a manner that shouldn’t turn off fans not interested in the material. In reality, broadcasters have a tremendous opportunity to generate interest and influence fans through the use of advanced metrics. This task can be accomplished without suffocating viewers with big-brain data and overly busy graphics. Having said that, an all-hands effort is needed to deliver that quality product. Specifically, buy-in from the booth, studio, and producers. Easier said than done in some locations. The “that’s the way we’ve always done it” mentality towards the use of conventional stats won’t help grow a a sport in dire need of a fresher look. How would we have ever reached the moon with such a mindset? Including a few advanced metrics in baseball broadcasts is a smidge easier than space exploration. Make it so, broadcasters. My Oh My…Go!

Over the last three years, the Oakland Athletics have found ways to cobble together competitive rosters despite being a low revenue organization. From a financial standpoint, this offseason appeared even more challenging than usual. Before discussing money matters further, let’s reflect on the A’s 2020 campaign. Looking Back After winning 97 wins in 2018-19 and only earning a wild card berth, the Athletics won the AL West for the first time since 2013. Oakland defeated the White Sox in the initial round of playoffs marking the first time it won a postseason series since beating the Twins in the 2006 ALDS. The team would subsequently fall to the division-rival Astros in the ALDS. Surprisingly, the A’s lineup wasn’t as potent as recent seasons. Several hitters delivered below average production for manager Bob Melvin. Matt Chapman fell prey to a hip injury that eventually required season-ending surgery. Despite the setback, Chapman did manage to hit 10 home runs with a .535 SLG. However, the 27-year-old had an anemic .276 OBP. Across the diamond at first base, Matt Olson hit 14 home runs, although his .195/.310/.424 slash-line was his worst since debuting in 2017. Staying in the infield, shortstop Marcus Semien finished with a 91 OPS+, just one year after being an MVP finalist. On-base Plus Slugging Plus (OPS+) is a normalized version of OPS that adjusts for park and league conditions. OPS+ is scaled so 100 is always league-average. As a result, an OPS+ of 150 means a hitter was 50-percent more productive than the average player. An 80 OPS+ would be 20-percent below average. Designated hitter and former AL home run champion hit Khris Davis just two homers and .200/.303/.329 in 30 games. Right fielder Stephen Piscotty had five dingers, although his .226/.271/.358 slash was similarly awful. It wasn’t all bad in Oakland. Several hitters had productive seasons. Among them, left fielder Robbie Grossman (130 OPS+), Mark Canha (126), deadline deal acquisition Tommy La Stella (124), and freshman catcher Sean Murphy (131). Murphy’s performance earned a fourth place finish in AL Rookie of the Year voting. On the mound, strong pitching helped the A’s overcome sagging run production. Although the bullpen was the backbone of the staff, the rotation was solid also. There were no marquee names, but the starting staff’s combined xwOBA was sixth lowest among MLB rotations. Chris Bassitt (.289 xwOBA), Sean Manaea (.292), and 23-year-old Jesus Luzardo (.298) were top-50 in the majors. Rounding out the rotation, Frankie Montas (.316) and Mike Fiers (.320) were slightly worse than league-average. Expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) uses quality of contact (exit velocity and launch angle) to determine what should’ve happened to batted balls. A key advantage to xwOBA is defense (good or bad) doesn’t influence it. This gives us a truer sense of how a hitter or pitcher is performing. MLB league-average xwOBA last year = .312 The bullpens .283 xwOBA ranked fifth in the majors. Leading the charge was closer Liam Hendriks (.227). Getting the ball to Hendriks was a deep and versatile group. Among the arms used most often: Jake Diekman, (.240), Joakim Soria (.248), J.B. Wendelken (.260), Lou Trivino (.282), and Yusmeiro Petit (.311). Defensively, Oakland took a big step backwards. After ranking twelfth in the majors in defensive runs saved (DRS) in 2019. The team was in the bottom 20-percent with -19 DRS last year. The dramatic decline is traceable back to several players. Semien went from a top-5 defender in 2019 to a bottom feeder last year. At second base, the main offenders were Tony Kemp (-6 DRS) and La Stella (-2). There were also strengths in the field. Although he failed to win a third consecutive Gold Glove, Olson (5 DRS) once again provided stellar first base defense. Across the diamond, Chapman (5) was superb. Ramon Laureano (5) was also excellent in center field, as were Canha (3) and Piscotty (2) in right field. Behind the plate, Murphy rated very well in pitch framing and pop time on throws to second base. In limited action, young backstops Austin Allen and Jonah Heim also made positive contributions. Offseason Action The A’s lost two stars to free agency – Semien and Hendriks. However, GM David Forst chose to remain relatively idle until the first week of February. Forst’s biggest move sent Davis and Heim to the Rangers for shortstop Elvis Andrus and catching prospect Aramís Garcia. Andrus will earn a total of $28 million over the next two years compared to Davis’ $16.75 million paycheck this season. Yet, the A’s managed to find financial relief from this deal. Texas is sending two annual installments totaling $13.5 million to offset Andrus’ salary. Therefore, Oakland pays Andrus $7.75 million this season, essentially shaving $9 million originally programmed for Davis off this year’s ledger. The Athletics’ net savings seemingly spurred several free agent signings. First came veteran relievers Sergio Romo and Trevor Rosenthal. Then, 35-year-old first baseman Mitch Moreland. In the same window, the team re-signed two of its own free agents – Fiers and Petit. All five players agreed to one-year pacts. The team brought back another familiar face. Infielder Jed Lowrie, who previously spent five seasons with A’s, returned on a minor-league contract with a non-roster invite (NRI). Lowrie is the most notable of many players offered an NRI this offseason by Oakland. A non-roster invite (NRI) is an invitation to players not on a team’s 40-man roster to attend Spring Training. This includes upper-level minor leaguers and free agents signed to minor-league contracts in the offseason. Outfielder Ka’ai Tom and reliever Dany Jiménez were Rule 5 Draft picks. Tom spent 2019 at AA/AAA in Cleveland’s system. The right-handed Jimenez appeared in two games with the Giants last season. In 2019, he struck out 93 in 59 frames for Toronto’s High-A and Double-A affiliates. Unless injured, Rule 5 Draft picks must remain on the drafting club’s 26-man roster through the following season. Otherwise, a player must pass through waivers and then be offered back to his original club $50 thousand.  If the original team doesn’t choose to pay, the drafting club can then send him to the minors. Looking Forward Olson will continue holding down first base, while Chapman to patrol the hot corner. With this pair, Oakland has arguably the best infield corner defense in the majors. After 12 seasons with the Rangers, Andrus takes over at shortstop. The 32-year-old will attempt to rejuvenate his career after slashing .194/.252/.330 and losing the starting gig in Texas to Isiah Kiner-Falefa. At second base, Kemp, Chad Pinder, and Vimael Machín will vie for playing time. If he’s healthy, Lowrie could factor into the equation. The 36-year-old was an All-Star at the position in 2018, but missed most of the last two seasons due to a knee injury. Both Kemp and Machín are lefty hitters, while Lowrie is a switch-hitter. Perhaps one option for the team is forming a platoon with Pinder’s righty bat. The infield backups likely depends on how the competition at second base goes. Pinder, Kemp, Machín, and Lowrie are capable of playing multiple positions, which bolsters roster depth and versatility. Pinder has starts at every position on the diamond except pitcher and catcher. Kemp has played left and center field, while the second-year Machín has touched every position on the field as a professional. Lowrie has time at every infield position, although we have to reemphasize his age and recent health issues. The starting outfield projects to be Canha in left field, Piscotty in right field, with Laureano playing between them. Tom, Dustin Fowler, and Seth Brown are in the mix for playing time along with the gang vying for the backup infield spot. The departure of Davis seemed to signal the club’s departure from a full-time designated hitter. That probably changed with the signing of Moreland last week. The left-handed hitter produced 10 home runs and a .265/.342/.551 slash with a 130 OPS+ with the Red Sox and Padres last year. Moreland has always performed much better against righties during his 11-year career. Perhaps Melvin uses right-handed hitters at DH on days there’s a southpaw starter on the mound. Murphy is the starting catcher. The sophomore is recovering from surgery for a collapsed lung, although the team expects him to be ready for Opening Day. Competition to be Murphy’s backup or serve as minor-league depth includes Allen, the recently acquired García, and non-roster invites Carlos Pérez and Francisco Peña. Bassitt, Luzardo, Fiers, Montas, and Manaea return to the rotation, which bodes well for the A’s. Bassitt is one of the more underrated starters in the majors, while the duo of Luzardo and Montas can still get better. Fiers has a reputation of being durable and delivering innings. That’s a valuable trait in a year clubs will have to manage pitcher workload following a truncated 2020 campaign. After dealing with shoulder problems, left-hander A.J. Puk projects to join the rotation at some point. Management might opt to use the 25-year-old out of the bullpen until he builds arm strength. The Dodgers have succeed employing this tactic with young starters Julio Urías Dustin May, and Tony Gonsolin. Other youngsters who could eventually help the rotation include Daulton Jefferies, James Kaprielian, and Grant Holmes. Jeffries, Kaprielian, Holmes were at the team’s alternate training site last summer. Jeffries and Kaprielian made their MLB debuts; Holmes didn’t get the call. It’s conceivable all three could contribute in a relief role. Rosenthal is set to replace Hendriks as closer. Tasked with getting the ball to the 30-year-old will be Diekman, Trivino, Wendelken, Petit, Smith, plus newcomers Romo and Adam Kolarek. After a downward skid in 2018-19, Rosenthal rebounded with the Royals and Padres to tie Tampa Bay’s Nick Anderson for the third lowest xwOBA (.210) among MLB relievers. Entering his age-38 season, Romo remained an effective reliever (.293 xwOBA) with the Twins last season. Kolarek has a unique side-arm delivery, but delivered excellent results with the Dodgers in 2020. The southpaw held hitters to a .164 AVG and .250 xwOBA – both top-40 among MLB relievers. Others vying for bullpen spots are Jiménez, Jordan Weems, Nik Turley, Miguel Romero, and the starters previously mentioned. Considering the recent influx of experienced arms, it’ll be challenging for the club to retain the 27-year-old Jiménez as a Rule 5 draftee. Turley has no more minor-league options remaining, which could play into the decision making of Forst and his staff. It’s worth noting there are several players vying for positions, who are in the same situation as Turley. Players on a 40-man roster have three minor-league “options.” Teams can send players with options to the minors without first having to clear waivers. Only one option is used annually regardless of how many times a player goes to the minors. Players without options must pass through outright waivers before being eligible for assignment to the minors. Pressing Business Oakland dealt its most expensive pending free agent – Davis – this offseason. But the team’s practice of signing free agents to short-term deals means there’s always rental players available to move at the July 31 trade deadline. Considering Oakland’s recent success, shipping out veterans probably isn’t in the cards. Instead, the team would appear more likely to add pieces this summer to facilitate a return to the playoffs for a fourth consecutive season. Then again, there’s a possibility financial reasons compel the A’s to avoid adding payroll at the deadline. As noted earlier, the A’s remained idle in the marketplace until offloading Davis and his salary, which was the team’s highest. Only then did they sign Petit, Fiers, Romo, Rosenthal, and Moreland. Is this a coincidence or evidence of a need to strictly manage dwindling resources? It’s impossible to know for certain. But the circumstances surrounding a potential reunion with Semien and then details regarding Rosenthal’s contract suggest the A’s may be spread thin financially. When Semien signed with the Blue Jays last month, Ken Rosenthal of the Atlantic reported the A’s had previously floated the notion of a “one-year/$12.5 million deal with $10 million deferred in 10 one-year installments of $1 million each.” This came on the heels of Oakland declining to make an $18.9 million qualifying offer to their longtime shortstop. Then, the team reportedly signed Rosenthal to an unusual one-year deal with deferments. Trevor Rosenthal’s one-year, $11M deal with the Athletics is heavily backloaded, sources tell @TheAthletic. Rosenthal will be paid $3M in 2021, $3M in ‘22 and $5M in ‘23. — Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) February 19, 2021 Is A’s owner John Fisher mired in a financial crisis or is Fisher simply being conservative with his resources? The answer doesn’t matter, but the franchise taking a more austere budgetary approach would have consequences this year and in the future. An inability or unwillingness to spend may prevent Forst from acquiring needed help this season. Moreover, the financial motivation driving recent contract negotiations make it increasingly likely the team trades Chapman and Olson before they reach free agency after the 2023 season. Perhaps the purge begins this summer. All of this must be very frustrating for A’s fans. To be tantalizingly close to reaching the World Series only to be held back for financial reasons. Then again, it probably won’t surprise that fan base if money brings their team’s great run to a screeching halt. My Oh My… [tipjarwp id=”2″]Go!

The Houston Astros’ offseason was absent of significant roster improvements. So much so, it’s reasonable to speculate whether the Astros can win in 2021. We’ll delve into the team’s offseason strategy and much more after discussing its 2020 season. Looking Back First-year manager Dusty Baker did a splendid job guiding his squad through cheating scandal backlash, losing players to injury, and ineffective production from several key contributors. Despite having a losing record, the Astros earned a Wild Card berth and then marched to the ALCS before falling to the Rays. Houston saw a steep decline in run production last year compared to 2019. The problem was attributable to subpar performances by multiple players including 2017 AL MVP Jose Altuvé, first baseman Yuli Gurriel, shortstop Carlos Correa, and right fielder Josh Reddick. Altuvé also missed time due to a knee strain. He wasn’t the only Astro missing time – far from it. An August hamstring strain limited 2019 AL MVP runner-up Alex Bregman to 42 games. Bregman’s offense fell significantly afterwards and into the postseason. Meanwhile, the team lost 2019 Rookie of the Year Yordan Álvarez two games into the season after he underwent surgery on both knees. Correa, who missed significant time to injuries in recent years, played in 58 of 60 games last season. However, he was average-ish at reaching base (.326 OBP) with a below average 92 OPS+. The 26-year-old also suffered from a power outage. His .383 SLG was nearly 100 points below normal. On-base Plus Slugging Plus (OPS+) is a normalized version of OPS that adjusts for park and league conditions. OPS+ is scaled so 100 is always league-average. As a result, an OPS+ of 150 means a hitter was 50-percent more productive than the average player. An 80 OPS+ would be 20-percent below average. It’s worth noting both Altuvé (five home runs and .375/.500/.729) and Correa (six home runs and 1.221 OPS) performed much better in the postseason. Normally, this might not matter since it was only 13 games. Still, that equates to 22-percent of last year’s regular season. There were also Astros who delivered excellent results. George Springer hit a team-leading 14 home runs with a 140 OPS+. Michael Brantly continued his hitting excellence during his age-33 season with a .300/.364/.476 slash line, while pacing the Astros with 15 doubles. Kyle Tucker had a breakout season leading Houston in triples (6), stolen bases (8), He also hit nine home runs and .268/.325/.512. Despite losing 2019 AL Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander (elbow) for the season after his Opening Day start, the starting rotation was a strength. Houston’s staff had a combined .308 xwOBA, which was ninth lowest in the majors. Expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) uses quality of contact (exit velocity and launch angle) to determine what should’ve happened to batted balls. A key advantage to xwOBA is defense (good or bad) doesn’t influence it. This gives us a truer sense of how a hitter or pitcher is performing. MLB league-average xwOBA last year = .312 Wily veteran Zack Greinke headlined the rotation, although there were potential signs of age-related regression by the end of the shortened season. Lance McCullers Jr. had a solid campaign after spending 2019 recovering from Tommy John surgery. Framber Valdéz continued his breakout season into the playoffs. Among pitchers facing at least 40 hitters in the postseason, Valdéz had the fourth best xwOBA (.272) behind Dodgers Clayton Kershaw (.217) and Julio Urías (.251) and Gerrit Cole (.262) of the Yankees. Cristian Javier posted a .256 xwOBA, which was sixth best in the majors among all pitchers facing 200+ hitters last year. This placed Javier ahead of stars like Cole, Kershaw, and Yu Darvish. The 25-year-old’s strong debut resulted in a third place finish in AL Rookie of the Year voting. Another youngster, José Urquidy, performed well in five regular season starts and then went on to help his team in October by holding opponents to a .204 AVG in three postseason starts. Based on xwOBA, the bullpen went from being fourth best (.300) in 2019 to middle-of-the-pack last year (.311). Not helping matters was the loss of former closer Roberto Osuna to a UCL injury after just four outings. Fortunately, Ryan Pressly (.247 xwOBA) was able to take over and perform well in the closer role. Behind Pressly, Baker relied on a cadre of young arms out of the bullpen. Among them; Blake Taylor, Enoli Paredes, Andre Scrubb, Cionel Pérez, Humberto Castellanos, Nivaldo Rodríguez, Brandon Bailey, Bryan Abreu, and Carlos Sanabria. All were 25-or-younger; some performed better than others did. Although the Astros dropped from third in defensive runs saved (DRS) in 2019 to eleventh last year, the team’s overall defense was good. The following illustrates the team’s DRS totals for each position and respective MLB rankings. Advanced metrics have never cared for Altuvé’s second base defense; last season was no different. There was regression from Reddick in right field, but it wasn’t gross. Still, it’s important to remember that it’s best to consume defensive metrics in large quantities. Therefore, looking too deeply into changes in 2020 could unnecessarily lead you down a rabbit hole. Offseason Action As noted earlier, GM James Click was relatively inactive during hot stove season. This must be particularly concerning for Astros fans with the team losing its best player (Springer) to free agency and its best pitcher (Verlander) out for 2021 due to Tommy John surgery. Houston’s biggest move was re-signing Brantley to a two-year/$32 million deal. The team added a pair of experienced arms – Pedro Báez and Ryne Stanek – to augment its young bullpen. Veteran reliever Steve Cishek signed as a non-roster invite. Outfielders Jose Sirí and Steven Souza Jr. also received an NRI. A non-roster invite (NRI) is an invitation to players not on a team’s 40-man roster to attend Spring Training. This includes upper-level minor leaguers and free agents signed to minor-league contracts in the offseason. The final notable addition was a reunion with the team’s 2008 first round draft pick – catcher Jason Castro. Since leaving Houston after the 2016 season, the 33-year-old played for the Twins, Angels, and Padres. Looking Forward Once again, the infield will consist of Gurriel (1B), Altuve (2B), Correa (SS), and Bregman (3B). It’ll be tough for Houston to challenge for a postseason berth unless this group is more productive than last year. Health will be crucial too. There are few ready replacement options within the organization. Aledmys Díaz remains in the utility role. Díaz has experience at all infield positions and left field. He’s also delivered good production (.273/.327/.460 and 109 OPS+) over five big-league seasons. However, injuries have slowed him during his career. Last year, a groin injury sidelined the 30-year-old. Another player who’ll factor into the infield depth picture is Abraham Toro. The switch-hitter has slashed .182/.269/.327 in 186 plate appearances since debuting in 2019. Considering he’s just 24-years-old and has minor-league options remaining, he may bounce between Houston and the minors. Players on a 40-man roster have three minor-league “options.” Teams can send players with options to the minors without first having to clear waivers. Only one option is used annually regardless of how many times a player goes to the minors. Players without options must pass through outright waivers before being eligible for assignment to the minors. Brantley spent over half his playing time as the designated hitter due to Álvarez’s absence. He’ll return to left field where he’s a very capable defender. Álvarez projects as the full-time DH following two knee surgeries. Myles Straw enters camp as the favorite to be the center fielder. Straw’s defense is excellent and he’s a disruptive base runner. However, his bat will have to justify a starting job. Last season, the 26-year-old slashed .246/.327/.322 with a 37 OPS+. Another potential option for center field could be prospect Chas McCormick. Assuming he picks up where he left off last season, right field will be Tucker’s position with the Astros for a long time. Sousa and Sirí are potential backups for both corner outfield spots. That’s if they make the major-league roster. In the end, the best choice for fourth outfielder may be McCormick, assuming he doesn’t win the center field job. Behind the plate, Maldonado will be the starter. It’s plausible Baker forms a semi-platoon with the right-handed hitting Maldonado and the lefty bat of Castro. However, Maldonado is the superior defender and likely sees more playing time as a result. Garrett Stubbs is the third catcher on the 40-man. The Astros have a talented rotation with Greinke, Valdez, McCullers, Urquidy, and Javier. Backing up the starting five is a gaggle of promising, mostly unproven youngsters. Once a top pitching prospect, Forrest Whitley has become an enigma after suffering injury and performance setbacks in the minors. Is 2021 the season we finally see Whitley’s MLB debut? Other minor-league starters include Luis García, Bryan Abreu, Brandon Bielak, and Nivaldo Rodríguez. García, Abreu, and Rodríguez each made their big-league debut last season pitching mostly out of the bullpen. Bielak, also a rookie, made six inauspicious starts. The bullpen received the most attention in the offseason and should be solid. The top candidates to backup  Pressly are Báez, Stanek, Paredes, Taylor, Raley, Scrubb, and COVID opt-out Joe Smith. Other arms in the mix include the young starters just mentioned. Two future options for the bullpen include Josh James and Austin Pruitt. Both are recovering from surgery and will miss the start of the season. It’s worth noting Pruitt and Raley are without minor-league options. This will figure into roster decisions now and during the season. Stanek will get an opportunity to earn a high-leverage role. He became available when the Marlins didn’t tender him a contract. Last year, the 29-year-old lost a month to COVID and logged just 10 innings. He’ll get his shot to bounce back with Houston. Notoriously one of the slowest workers on the mound, Báez had another solid season with the Dodgers in 2020. Still, there were signs of potential erosion. Walks and home run rates were up; strikeouts were down. Moreover, his fastball velocity has incrementally dropped from 97.4-MPH in 2016 to 94.4-MPH last year. Pending Business The recurring theme for the Astros is areas that were once strengths (offense, starting pitching, and bullpen) have significantly regressed since the end of 2019. It’s plausible the downward slide continues into the upcoming season. Since losing the 2019 World Series, the team has lost two Cy Young caliber starters – Cole (free agency) and Verlander (injury). Obviously, finding suitable substitutes is no easy task. Nevertheless, this season likely hinges on whether Greinke slows any potential decline, the oft-injured McCullers remains available, and the staff’s young arms take the next step. With the Mets signing of Taijuan Walker, the most appealing free agent starter remaining on the market is Jake Odorizzi. There are other options, but none as appealing as Odorizzi. They include Mike Leake, Gio González, Jeff Samardzija, Cole Hamels, Julio Teheran, and Rick Porcello. Leake opted out due to COVID last year, Hamels missed nearly the entire season with shoulder issues, and the remaining pitchers were ineffective. The Astros don’t have a proven commodity to replace Springer in center field or in the lineup. In theory, Álvarez’s return should help offset the loss of Springer’s bat. However, Álvarez essentially missed all of last season and his MLB career encompasses 89 games and 378 plate appearances. Shouldn’t a contender strive to add more certainty to its roster? Free agent Jackie Bradley Jr. would be an excellent addition in center field. Perhaps Bradley is asking for more dollars and years than the Astros want to commit to a 30-year-old center fielder. That said, there are few viable free agent options other than the former All-Star. Veteran Jarrod Dyson is available, although he has a 55 OPS+ since 2018 and is 36-years-old. Versatile Danny Santana has center field experience. Santana had a down 2020, but just a year removed from a 112 OPS+. The 30-year-old could help provide additional depth across Houston’s roster – he has double-digit starts at every infield and outfield position. Considering the recent health and performance of the team’s aging roster, this kind of positional flexibility may be appealing. For a club that reached Game 7 of the ALCS last year, leaning forward would have seemed like the thing to do this offseason. But that wasn’t Houston’s strategy. If the season were to take an unexpected downward turn, perhaps the organization takes on an uncharacteristic role at the deadline – sellers. Considering the Astros lost their 2020 and 2021 first and second round picks due to the cheating scandal, moving expiring contracts could help the organization recoup needed prospect value. After all, Keith Law of the Athletic recently ranked Houston’s farm system in the bottom 20-percent of MLB. Obviously, Verlander is going nowhere. But rotation-mates Greinke and McCullers could appeal to buyers, assuming they’re having good seasons. Both have playoff experience and would be unflappable during a postseason run. Talented relievers like Pressly, Smith, and Raley will always be in demand during the deadline deal season. The same applies to backstops like Castro and Maldonado. Perhaps the Astros hope to sign Correa to a long-term extension before he hits the market after the season. Still, considering his reaction to the mega-extension signed by Fernando Tatís Jr., keeping Correa will be costly. Love to see it. Congrats Fernando — Carlos Correa (@TeamCJCorrea) February 18, 2021 Finally Since owner Jim Crane fired previous GM Jeff Luhnow in January 2020, the team hasn’t made a significant trade or signed a top free agent. This stagnation jeopardizes a return to the postseason this year and is uncharacteristic for a proud organization with so much recent success. Perhaps there’s a shift in philosophy on the horizon for Houston. One without as much postseason certainty as we’ve seen over the last half-decade. The rest of the AL West would be just fine with that. My Oh My… [tipjarwp id=”2″]Go!

It wasn’t a surprise when Los Angeles Angels owner Arte Moreno replaced GM Billy Eppler with Perry Minasian. After all, every AL West team has at least one winning season since 2015 except Moreno’s club. But did the front office shuffle actually change the Angels’ trajectory for 2021? We’ll consider the answer to that question and more. First, let’s review the team’s 2020 campaign before digging into Minasian’s offseason maneuvers. Looking Back Not only did the Angels have another losing season, they finished in fourth place behind the Mariners – a team in rebuild-mode. Despite the overall mediocrity, elements of the roster did perform well. The first being the offense. The following illustrates the Halos’ stats and the MLB ranking for each. Mike Trout continued being Mike Trout, although the future first-ballot Hall of Famer “only” finished fifth in MVP voting and his OPS was below 1.000 for the first time since the 2016 season. Then again, the 29-year-old did hit 17 home runs and .281/.390/.603. Last year’s big offseason addition – third baseman Anthony Rendon – didn’t disappoint. Rendon’s .418 OBP was eighth best in the majors, his 151 OPS+ was top-20. On-base Plus Slugging Plus (OPS+) is a normalized version of OPS that adjusts for park and league conditions. OPS+ is scaled so 100 is always league-average. As a result, an OPS+ of 150 means a hitter was 50-percent more productive than the average player. An 80 OPS+ would be 20-percent below average. Infielder David Fletcher is of the more overlooked players in the majors. The 26-year-old delivered outstanding results hitting .319/.376/.425, while ably filling in for injured shortstop Andrelton Simmons. When healthy, Simmons also performed well (.297/.346/.356 in 30 games) before opting out during the last week of the season. Although he appeared in just 32 games, first baseman Jared Walsh managed to hit nine home runs and finish seventh in AL Rookie of the Year voting. The 27-year-old slashed .293/.324/.646 with a 158 OPS+. Several other part-timers were also productive. Catchers Max Stassi (139) and Anthony Bemboom (130) had an OPS+ over 100. So did Tommy La Stella and Brian Goodwin before leaving via trade in August. Unfortunately, there were also players who struggled last season. Future Hall of Famer Albert Pujols endured career lows in AVG, OBP, and OPS+. Left fielder Justin Upton displayed power with nine homers, although he struggled to reach base (.291 OBP). In right field, touted prospect Jo Adell hit just .161 with a 31 OPS+ in 38 games. The 21-year-old’s -1.3 WAR (Baseball Reference and FanGraphs versions) ranked last in the majors. Two-way player Shohei Ohtani slashed just .190/.291/.366, although he did manage to hit seven home runs and steal seven bases. Regrettably, Ohtani pitched in just two games due to health. This time, a forearm strain that limited him. This came on the heels of not pitching in 2019 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Losing Ohtani certainly didn’t help a rotation that ranked in the bottom-third of the league in walks, strikeouts, innings pitched, and xwOBA. Despite the overall bad numbers, there were bright spots. Particularly newcomer Dylan Bundy. The 28-year-old had a breakout season with a .258 xwOBA, which was ninth best in the majors. Bundy also received Cy Young Award consideration for the first time in his career. Expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) uses quality of contact (exit velocity and launch angle) to determine what should’ve happened to batted balls. A key advantage to xwOBA is defense (good or bad) doesn’t influence it. This gives us a truer sense of how a hitter or pitcher is performing. MLB league-average xwOBA last year = .312 Southpaw Andrew Heaney battled inconsistency, but did pace the rotation with 12 starts and a better than average .307 xwOBA. Griffin Canning, who dealt with elbow issues before the shutdown, made 11 starts and matched Heaney’s xwOBA. In seven starts, 24-year-old Jaime Barria also showed promise (.273). Unfortunately, the rest of the starters covered a third of team’s games and were awful. Ohtani, Patrick Sandoval, Julio Teheran, Dillon Peters, Matt Andriese, and Jose Suarez combined for an 11.29 ERA and a .369 xwOBA in 21 starts with opponents hitting .319 against them. Although the bullpen didn’t look good using conventional stats, the unit was better under the lens of xwOBA. Angel relievers combined for a .298 xwOBA, which was ninth best in the majors. Standouts included setup man Mike Mayers, who had a breakout year with a 12.9 SO/9 and a .231 xwOBA. Felix Peña (.283) also proved valuable and even closed out a pair of games. So did Andriese, who held hitters to a .160 AVG. Poor glove work certainly didn’t help the reliever’s traditional stats. As you can see, defensive metrics were not the Angels’ friend last year. Angel outfielders combined for a -24 defensive runs saved (DRS); the worst in the majors. The usually stellar Simmons (-2) had a down year at shortstop, while La Stella (-5) didn’t fare well at second base. To be fair, defensive metrics are most useful with a large sample. The 2020 season certainly wasn’t that. There was some good news. Catchers Max Stassi and Anthony Bemboom rated well as pitch framers. Furthermore, Canning made the pitching staff proud by earning his first Gold Glove. Offseason Action Whether by choice, direction from ownership, or the market dictated it, Minasian added around the edges rather than making splashy acquisitions. There was a reported flirtation with Trevor Bauer, who eventually signed with the crosstown Dodgers. However, it’s unclear how serious talks became between the Halos and the 2020 NL Cy Young Award winner. Minasian did acquire a pair of starters to augment the rotation. Free agent José Quintana and Alex Cobb via a trade with the Orioles for prospect Jahmai Jones. In another deal with Baltimore, the Halos received José Iglesias for a pair of minor leaguers. Iglesias takes over at shortstop for Simmons, who left as a free agent. A recurring theme of the offseason was adding players who previously played for manager Joe Maddon. Most notably, Quintana, Cobb, and outfielder Dexter Fowler, who arrived from St. Louis via trade. Cobb played for Maddon in Tampa Bay. Both Quintana and Fowler were with the 67-year-old skipper as member of the Cubs. Minasian also signed catcher Kurt Suzuki to a one-year deal. Suzuki fills the void created when the team traded Jason Castro to the Padres last August. To help the bullpen, Minasian dealt reliever Noé Ramirez and a minor leaguer to the Reds in exchange for Raisel Iglesias. He also acquired Aaron Slegers from Tampa Bay and inked free agent Álex Claudio to a one-year pact. The team also signed reliever Junior Guerra to a minor league contract with a non-roster invite. Other non-roster invites include outfielders Juan Lagares and Jon Jay and catcher Juan Graterol. A non-roster invite (NRI) is an invitation to players not on a team’s 40-man roster to attend Spring Training. This includes upper-level minor leaguers and free agents signed to minor-league contracts in the offseason. Looking Forward It appears Pujols will be a part-time player this season – the final of his 10-year contract with the Halos. With the 41-year-old moving aside, Walsh should assume a larger role at first base, although it’s worth recognizing his strong rookie debut was a small sample size. Matt Thaiss and Taylor Ward are potential depth pieces. Fletcher will be the everyday second baseman. Even though Iglesias doesn’t have the Gold Glove pedigree of Simmons, he and Fletcher should provide solid middle-infield defense. A caution regarding Iglesias’ 160 OPS+ with Baltimore last season. The nine-year veteran played in just 39 games and has a career 80 OPS+. Barring unforeseen circumstances, Rendon will be the Opening Day starter at third base for a long time. The 30-year-old inked a seven-year/$245 million free agent deal with the Halos in December 2019. Franklin Barreto and Luis Rengifo are candidates to serve in the utility infielder role. Barreto has experience at shortstop and third base. However, second base has been his primary position in the majors. Rengifo has a similar résumé, although he previously spent time in the outfield in the Mariners’ system and during Winter Ball in 2017. BREAKING: Mike Trout will be the center fielder. Upton remains in left field with Fowler expected to take over right field. Both Upton and Fowler could eventually lose playing time to top prospects Adell and Brandon Marsh. Still, Marsh has yet to debut and Maddon suggested in the offseason Adell might need more time in the minors before being MLB-ready. Lagares and Jay are be in the mix for reserve outfield roles. The right-handed hitting Lagares is a premium defender capable of playing all outfield positions, although he’s struggled against righty pitching throughout his career. Entering his age-36 season, the left-handed hitting Jay may be better suited for a corner outfield spot. Stassi and Suzuki project as the catching duo. Stassi should be the starter, although he’s underwent hip procedures in two consecutive years. While Stassi is a strong defender, Suzuki’s best contribution is his bat. Over the last two seasons with Washington, the 37-year-old Suzuki slashed .266/.331/.460 with a 103 OPS+ as a part-timer. Anthony Bemboom is the third backstop on the 40-man roster and likely serves as minor-league depth. Ohtani projects to be the regular DH with Pujols seeing time there too. In theory, Ohtani will be in the rotation and won’t be available to hit on days he pitches. It’ll be interesting how much longer the Shohei Ohtani experiment as a two-way player continues. Injuries have limited the 26-year-old to a combined 18 games and 79.2 innings in Japan and the U.S. since 2017. Heading into Spring Training the Angels plan on using a six-man rotation. The starting staff projects to be Bundy, Heaney, Canning, Quintana, Cobb, and Ohtani. It’s worth noting Quintana missed most of last season due to injuries, although he averaged 32 starts and 193 innings pitched during the seven seasons leading up to last year. On the other hand, Cobb had a 5.10 ERA and .362 xwOBA during three seasons in Baltimore. Potential organizational depth includes Jaime Barria, Patrick Sandoval, José Suarez, and prospects Reid Detmers and Chris Rodriguez. Barria is out of minor league options, so the club may use the 24-year-old out of the bullpen rather than risk running him through waivers. Players on a 40-man roster have three minor league “options.” Teams can send players with options to the minors without first having to clear waivers. Only one option is used annually regardless of how many times a player goes to the minors. Players without options must pass through outright waivers before being eligible for assignment to the minors. When clubs make final roster cuts, minor league options are a planning factor. The Angels have quite a few players without options. Obviously, Stassi is safe. However, Barria and Barreto are names to watch. Leading bullpen candidates are Iglesias as closer, setup men Mayers and Peña, plus Slegers and Claudio, Ty Buttrey, Guerra, and Rule 5 pickup Jose Alberto Rivera. As noted earlier, Barria could serve as a long reliever. Other relief options include Sandoval, Gerardo Reyes, Luke Bard, José Quijada, and Kyle Keller. Unless injured, Rule 5 Draft picks must remain on the drafting club’s 26-man roster through the following season. Otherwise, a player must pass through waivers and then be offered back to his original club $50 thousand.  If the original team doesn’t choose to pay, the drafting club can then send him to the minors. Pressing Business The most obvious example of the Angels’ chronic failure is the starting staff. Since Trout’s Rookie of the Year season in 2012, the team’s starting pitchers have the third lowest fWAR (66.2) in the majors. Meanwhile, the crosstown rival Dodgers got 71 fWAR from their starters in about half that time. Heading into 2021, the Halos are heavily relying on hope with their rotation. Hopefully, Ohtani remains healthy and can start at least 20 games – something he hasn’t done since 2016. Hopefully, Quintana returns to being the innings-eater he was with the Cubs. Hopefully, Cobb is better than he’s been in recent years. Hopefully, other starters with a history of arm issues (Heaney and Canning) remain available. That’s a lot of hope! If the season were to go south, it’d make sense for Minasian to pivot and convert pending free agents into prospect capital for his farm system. Keith Law of the Athletic recently ranked the Angels in the bottom-third of MLB. Every projected starting pitcher except Ohtani and Canning is a free agent after the upcoming season. Assuming Bundy repeats his 2020 excellence, he’d certainly be an appealing option to contenders looking for a quality arm. Heaney, Quintana, and Cobb may also garner interest by the July 31 trade deadline. Suzuki and Fowler have postseason experience. Both would be nice additions to clubs attempting to deepen their bench. The same applies to all the non-roster invites, who’ll be free agents if they earn a spot on the 26-man roster. Although it appears the Angels are trying to compete this season, their offseason acquisitions were short-term commitments. As a result, the club’s payroll will be relatively low once Pujols’ contract expires at the end of the season. Perhaps the Halos plan to go big next offseason when the shortstop market will be rife with marquee shortstops such as former Maddon player Javier Báez, Trevor Story, Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, and maybe Francisco Lindor. Maybe then, the Angels will finally put a roster around Trout capable of going deep into the postseason before it’s too late. Want to be they’ll still need starting pitching? My Oh My…Go!

The Texas Rangers were dismal in 2020. Afterwards, the organization underwent a significant overhaul leading to the departure of several longtime Rangers and team’s best player. There was even a front office shakeup. All of this made for a hectic offseason, which we’ll dig into after reviewing last season. Looking Back Texas had the second worst record in the majors last year; only the Pirates were worse. Adding salt to the wound, the team now has a losing record in each of the last four seasons. Its longest stretch of futility since 2005-08. Being a bottom feeder was a recurring theme for the Rangers, particularly with run production. The following illustrates several common stats and the MLB ranking for each. Texas was the only MLB team without a player having 100+ plate appearances and at least a league-average OPS+. Closest to doing so was 37-year-old Shin-Soo Choo (96). On-base Plus Slugging Plus (OPS+) is a normalized version of OPS that adjusts for park and league conditions. OPS+ is scaled so 100 is always league-average. As a result, an OPS+ of 150 means a hitter was 50-percent more productive than the average player. An 80 OPS+ would be 20-percent below average. Being average was an accomplishment for Texas hitters. Isiah Kiner-Falefa was team leader in OBP (.329). Rougned Odor blazed the way with a below average .413 SLG. Odor did tie Joey Gallo for team lead in home runs (10). However, both Odor (.209) and Gallo (.301) were well below league-average in OBP. Overall, the pitching stats didn’t look much better. But there were several solid performers. Other than Lance Lynn, the starting rotation was a mess. Lynn was a workhorse leading the majors with 13 starts and 84 innings pitched. He also finished sixth in AL Cy Young Award voting. After Lynn, there was a huge drop off. Mike Minor regressed after a career-year in 2019 with the club trading him to the division rival A’s in August. Two other rotation mainstays also had disappointing seasons – Kyle Gibson (5.35 ERA) and Jordan Lyles (7.02). Fortunately, Texas did have a decent bullpen. Its .305 xwOBA ranked eleventh best in MLB. Top relievers included Jonathan Hernández (.245), Brett Martin (.254), Wes Benjamin (.256), Taylor Hearn (.268), and Joely Rodríguez (.274). Expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) uses quality of contact (exit velocity and launch angle) to determine what should’ve happened to batted balls. A key advantage to xwOBA is defense (good or bad) doesn’t influence it. This gives us a truer sense of how a hitter or pitcher is performing. MLB league-average xwOBA last year = .312 There were a few rough spots, but Texas fielders were collectively above average. The following lists the defensive runs saved (DRS) for each position and its MLB ranking. The -12 DRS at second base was the combined total of Odor, (-5) and Nick Solak (-5), plus substitutes Derek Dietrich (-1), Anderson Tejeda (-1), and Yadiel Rivera (0). Two Rangers earned their first Gold Glove. Kiner-Falefa at third base after spending time at second base, shortstop, and even catcher during his first three big-league seasons. Gallo took home the hardware for his right field defense. He too moved around the diamond earlier in his career. Previous positions played include both infield and outfield corner spots. Offseason Action Longtime GM Jon Daniels became President of Baseball Operations with former pitcher Chris Young taking over GM duties. Prior to joining Texas, he worked for MLB. During 13 big-league seasons, Young played for the Rangers, Mariners, Mets, Padres, and Royals. As far as action involving players, there was a significant exodus. Some left via free agency, others by trades brokered by Daniels and then Young. Early in the offseason, the team shipped Lynn to the White Sox for pitcher Dane Dunning and minor-league pitcher Avery Weems. Closer Rafael Montero went to the Mariners for prospect Jose Corniell and a player to be named later, who’s likely to be a minor-leaguer. Young later traded shortstop Elvis Andrus with catching prospect Aramís García to Oakland. In exchange, Texas received designated hitter Khris Davis and 25-year-old catcher Jonah Heim. The other notable named added via trade was Nate Lowe, acquired from the Rays for a pair of minor leaguers. Free agent pickups included Japanese starter Kohei Arihara, fellow righty Mike Foltynewicz, and outfielder David Dahl to major-league deals. Several notable players received non-roster invites. A non-roster invite (NRI) is an invitation to players not on a team’s 40-man roster to attend Spring Training. This includes upper-level minor leaguers and free agents signed to minor-league contracts in the offseason. Looking Forward Ronald Guzmán once appeared destined to be the long-term answer at first base, but he’s yet to take hold of the job. Enter Lowe, who’d seem to have an advantage over the 26-year-old heading into Spring Training. Still, it’s worth noting Guzman was Dominican Winter League MVP this offseason and he’s out of minor-league options. Players on a 40-man roster have three minor league “options.” Teams can send players with options to the minors without first having to clear waivers. Only one option is used annually regardless of how many times a player goes to the minors. Players without options must pass through outright waivers before being eligible for assignment to the minors. Prospect Sherten Apostel could eventually enter the first base picture. Primarily a third baseman in the past, four of Apostel’s six starts with Texas last year were at first base. Still, Apostel hadn’t played above High-A before 2020. Expect the 21-year-old to begin the season in the minors. Solak gets a shot to be the full-time second baseman. The 26-year-old had a solid rookie debut in 2019 with a 123 OPS+ in 33 games. Last year, he followed up with a less impressive 84 OPS+. Despite the dip, Solak holds the edge over Odor. Odor followed up leading the AL with 178 strikeouts in 2019 with another bleak campaign – 64 OPS+ in 148 plate appearances. Heading into 2021, the veteran seems destined to be a utility player. However, he’s only played second base in seven big-league seasons and 15 games at shortstop as an 18-year-old minor leaguer. That said, Odor did play third base for Venezuela in the 2017 World Baseball Classic. Kiner-Falefa and his Gold Glove move from third base to shortstop. Assuming the defense doesn’t regress at his new position, the issue will be whether the 25-year-old can generate enough offense to remain a starter. In 846 plate appearances spanning three seasons, he’s hit .260/.319/.351 with a 77 OPS+. With Kiner-Falefa abandoning hot corner, it’s likely utility-men Charlie Culberson and Brock Holt vie for playing time with Odor. Still, neither Culberson nor Holt has appeared in 130 games since debuting in 2012. Perhaps manager Chris Woodward platoons the right-handed Culberson and the lefty bats of Odor and Holt. That said, it’s difficult imagining a scenario that includes all three players on the Opening Day roster. Realistically, the Opening Day third baseman is only a placeholder while top-100 prospect Josh Jung continues his development in the minors. The 23-year-old, who hasn’t played above Single-A, likely begins his year with Class-AAA Round Rock. This year’s outfield unit has a chance to be better than the 2020 group with Dahl and Gallo in left and right field respectively and presumably Leody Taveras patrolling center field. Once ranked a top-50 prospect by MLB Pipeline, injuries have sidetracked Dahl’s development since his big-league debut in 2016. The most games the 26-year-old has played in a season is 100 in 2019 with Colorado when he was an All-Star. Obviously, the Rangers hope Dahl repeats his 2019 form. It’s worth noting he underwent season-ending shoulder surgery last September, which bears watching during Cactus League play. Despite playing just 33 games last season, Taveras tied Houston’s George Springer for fifth most DRS (6) among center fielders. The 22-year-old’s elite-level sprint speed also led to steal eight stolen bases. As with several youngsters getting the chance to be a regular, Taveras must prove he can hit big-league pitching. A year removed from being an All-Star, Gallo had his worst offensive campaign since his rookie debut in 2015. Certainly, the offensively challenged Rangers need a rebound from their star right fielder in 2021. It’ll be interesting to see how management handles the remaining outfield spots and designated hitter. In the mix are Davis, Delino DeShields, and Willie Calhoun. DeShields spent five seasons with Texas before the team dealt him to Cleveland for Corey Kluber in December 2019. The 28-year-old likely competes with Taveras for time in center field. Fourth outfielder seems like a realistic outcome. Davis and Calhoun appear to be better fits at designated hitter than the outfield. Their bats are their most valuable weapons and advanced metrics rates both players as below average defenders. Still, there’s uncertainty surrounding the pair’s ability to contribute in 2021. In 2015-18, Davis averaged 40 home runs with a .528 SLG and 127 OPS+. Over the last two seasons, he averaged a .378 SLG and 83 OPS+. Is the 33-year-old on an inevitable decline or can he rebound with a change of scenery? Ever since the Rangers acquired Calhoun in the deal sending Yu Darvish to the Dodgers, the narrative has been he could hit. The issue was always where he’d play in the field. The 26-year-old seemed destined to start in left field last year. Unfortunately, a broken jaw suffered in Spring Training and poor results during the regular season have clouded his outlook. Eli White is an interesting option to serve as minor-league depth. Currently on the 40-man roster, White played a considerable amount at shortstop in the minors, plus he spent time at second and third base. Lately, the 26-year-old has been an outfielder, primarily playing left field.  White has proven to be a strong defender even if he may not hit. Jose Trevino projects to start behind the plate. However, the recent arrival of the 25-year-old Heim puts pressure on Trevino. Depth candidates include veterans Drew Butera and John Hicks, and top prospect Sam Huff. Although Huff appeared in 10 games with Texas last year, the 23-year-old may remain in the minors a little longer to hone his skills. Arihara, Foltynewicz, Gibson, and Lyles enter camp holding the first four starting rotation spots. The right-handed Arihara should provide a valuable resource to the Rangers after a pandemic-shortened 2020 MLB season – innings. With the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters last year, the 28-year-old tossed 132.2 innings. For context, Lynn led the majors with 84 frames. Foltynewicz had a career year in 2018 posting a 2.83 ERA in 31 starts with the Braves. But the 29-year-old has struggled ever since. So much so, Atlanta outrighted him last season. Now, the right-hander gets a chance to redeem himself in Texas. As noted earlier, Gibson and Lyles each performed poorly in 2020. The Rangers need quality innings from both veterans to depressurize the workload on younger arms likely to see action during the upcoming season. Dunning, a top-100 prospect, is the logical choice to earn the fifth spot. The 26-year-old rookie had an impressive .287 xwOBA during seven starts for the White Sox last season. He even earned a spot on Chicago’s postseason roster. Behind Dunning, there’s a plethora of youngsters. Notable candidates include Benjamin, Hearn, Kyle Cody, Kolby Allard, John King, and Joe Palumbo. Several served as relievers in 2020 and may do so again this year. José Leclerc enters camp as the closer, although he did miss most of last season with a torn shoulder muscle. Setting up before Leclerc will be Hernández and Rodríguez. The remaining candidates are a mix of holdovers, newcomers, and youngsters: Martin, Hearn, Benjamin, Josh Sborz, Nick Vincent, Hunter Wood, former Ranger Matt Bush, Sam Gaviglio, Demarcus Evans, Joe Gatto, and Rule 5 draftee Brett de Geus. Unless injured, Rule 5 Draft picks must remain on the drafting club’s 26-man roster through the following season. Otherwise, a player must pass through waivers and then be offered back to his original club $50 thousand.  If the original team doesn’t choose to pay, the drafting club can then send him to the minors. Pressing Business FanGraphs projects the Rangers with a 1.7-percent chance of reaching the postseason this year. That’s reasonable considering the club is rebuilding with many holes to fill. One method to add talent is offloading pending free agents to contenders at the July 31 trade deadline. Not counting non-roster invites, Texas doesn’t have many of those players. Still, the team could find ways to be active sellers. Assuming he’s having a good season, Gibson could interest contenders looking for rotation depth. He’s under contract for a relatively affordable $7.7 million next year. Foltynewicz might also be attractive, if he’s performing well. Next year will be his final year of arbitration eligibility. Leclerc is set to earn $9.7 million through 2022, so he may not draw much attention. However, every other reliever performing well would be potential trade chips. Several other personnel issues could potentially come to a head this summer. Odor is set to make $24.7 million over the next two seasons with a $3 million buyout for 2023. If he doesn’t rebound, how long does the team retain him? Considering his contract size, finding trade partners will prove challenging. With a pair of 40 home runs seasons, Gallo certainly possesses a potent bat. Yet, the 27-year-old hasn’t put together consecutive seasons with at least a league-average OBP since debuting in 2015. With one more year of arbitration eligibility remaining, will Young consider moving Gallo this summer? It may make sense if he’s having a strong first half. Woodward is entering the final year of his contract, although the team holds an option for 2022. Will the third-year manager enter the season as a lame duck or will management commit to their skipper past this year? The Rangers won’t be good this season. However, there are signs of what the future may hold. Expect to see some of the club’s best prospects reach the majors. When they arrive and how they perform likely sets the tone for 2021 and beyond. Such is the life of a rebuilding organization and its fan base. My Oh My… [tipjarwp id=”2″]Go!

The use of defensive shifts is an increasingly contentious topic among MLB fans. Many of whom believe shifts limit action and therefore suck the fun out of baseball. It’s an understandable sentiment also shared by some members of the media covering the sport. Their solution to the shift problem is simple – ban them. Despite the recent groundswell of support for doing away with shifts, I continue to resist the notion of placing restrictions on the defensive countermeasure. For me, nothing about shifts is straightforward. Therefore, taking decisive action without a clear understanding of whether doing so will improve a situation is impractical. Ironically, much of what I’ll be showing you will seemingly justify regulating shifts. Nevertheless, the basis for my refusing to jump onboard the “ban the shift” bandwagon should become clear by the end. Perhaps you won’t agree with me – that’s okay. Respectful discourse and sharing of ideas can generate reasonable recommendations and sustainable solutions. What’s a shift? Intuitively, we know the purpose of defensive shifting is to put fielders in the best position to record outs. Thanks to advanced metrics and cutting-edge technology, clubs can accurately determine the tendencies of individual hitters and then devise a strategy that positions the defense for the greatest chance of success. Think about it. If there were an 80-percent likelihood that a batter hits a ball to a specific zone of the field, why wouldn’t teams consider setting its defense accordingly? Wouldn’t you at least be tempted to gamble with such favorable odds at a Vegas casino? So what exactly is a shift? For our conversation, I’ll be using the Baseball Savant definition, plus two other basic shift-related terms: Standard alignment: All four infielders standing in their traditional spots. Shift: The three or more infielders positioned to the same side of second base. This extreme alignment is the impetus for our conversation. Strategic shift: One player out of position. Example: the second baseman moving into right field. Guarding the lines against doubles, playing the infield in, or at double play depth fall within the standard alignment category. If you want to learn about more about Statcast’s shift classification, you can find information here. We won’t be discussing the use of a fourth outfielder because this defensive oddity is rarely used. Last year, teams used four outfielders 115 times – 0.2-percent of all plate appearances. The two players seeing the tactic most often were Cavan Biggio (24 plate appearances) and former Mariner Justin Smoak (14). Moving forward, the focus will be on the standard alignment and the shift only. Clubs used the strategic shift accounted on less than 10-percent of plays last year, plus it’s essentially a modified standard alignment. Besides, it’s extreme shift causing the stir. Now, let’s turn our attention to shift-related numbers. Shifts are up, but not as much some believe. Teams employed a shift during 34-percent of all plate appearances last season. That’s a steep increase since the beginning of the Statcast era in 2015. Despite this huge increase, extreme shifts were in place for a minority of all plays. The standard alignment remained the most used at 52.1-percent. Lefties see way more shifts. The focus of our conversation is on the entire league. But it’s worth noting left-handed hitters faced shifts much more often than their right-handed hitting counterparts did. MLB – 34-percent LHH – 50-percent RHH – 21.7-percent The universal DH created more shifts. The jump in shifts between 2019 and 2020 may have been less dramatic without the universal designated hitter last year. In 2019, NL pitchers and designated hitters faced a shift during 185 plate appearances – just 0.39-percent of all shifts employed in the majors. In 2020, NL DH plate appearances accounted for six percent of all shifts. Slightly more than half of the 8.6-percent climb in shifts from 2019 to last year was attributable to the universal DH. Therefore, MLB may see a noticeable drop in shifts in 2021. The count matters. It’s become routine during MLB games. Pitcher throws a pitch; the infielders realign their position afterwards. Yes, that’s right. Teams literally determine whether to shift based on the ball-strike count. Even someone like me, who’s averse to restricting shifts, has to admit the aesthetic awkwardness of infielders constantly repositioning is a tedious feature of today’s game. Shifts may affect the amount of balls put in play. One reason I’ve previously railed against curtailing defensive shifts is the recent decline in balls in play. Since 2015, balls in play (BIP) have incrementally dropped from 70.9-percent to 66.3-percent last year. How could shifts affect that? Well, research for this piece led me to realize the BIP rate with shifts deployed was lower than with standard alignments. The anti-shift faction may see this discrepancy as proof of the negative influence extreme shifting has on game action. However, nothing about this subject is straightforward. Since 2015, BIP has decreased by 2.7-percent when shifts were in use. On the other hand, drop during standard alignments is larger (3.9-percent). My takeaway, shifts influence batter and pitcher behavior on some level. However, defensive positioning isn’t the only factor affecting the dip in BIP. Shifts also influences batted balls. We’re also seeing changes in how batters are hitting balls. The following illustrates the rates for the four types of batted ball classifications Statcast uses – fly balls, pop-ups, line drives, and ground balls. We see evidence shifts lead to batters hitting more fly balls and fewer grounders. Is that a bad thing? How are shifts affecting stats? We now know batted balls are decreasing and hitters are putting more balls in the air. How does that translate to player stats? There are obvious changes, plus a few surprises. Please note all rates expressed below are per/plate appearance. Counter to what opponents believe; the shift hasn’t led to a large increase in strikeouts. The difference between shifts and standard alignment last season was rather small – one percent. We’ll return to the strikeout issue later. A stat some shift-haters use as proof of the damage the shift does is batting average. It’s true AVG was considerably lower for batters facing a shift. However, OBP was slightly higher with SLG even better. There was also a notable uptick in home runs and walks. Once again, we encounter numbers suggesting pitchers and hitters behave differently when teams deploy shifts. Base runners remains unchanged.    The preceding table illustrated a noteworthy decline in hits and AVG. This ignites the concern shifts disproportionately limit the number of men on the base paths. But that doesn’t appear to be the case. The following illustrates the percent of all plate appearances with a runner on base. Despite a steep climb in defensive shifts since 2015, the amount of men on base with a hitter at the plate remained stable. Again, nothing about shifts is straightforward. Shifts alone didn’t increase strikeouts and homers. We’ve already noted the jump in home runs and strikeouts with shifts in place last season. However, this increase isn’t solely attributable to shifts. Both were climbing long before teams began embracing shifts. To demonstrate this, I put together the following table illustrating the dramatic rise in home run and strikeout rates over the past five decades. It’s amazing how strikeouts have nearly doubled since the Seventies. I’m sure none of us was surprised to see the spike in home runs during the Nineties. Yet, strikeouts didn’t appreciably increase during the decade dominated by steroid use. This changed with the new millennium. Some teams shift a lot more than others do. MLB had a 34-percent shift rate in 2020. However, shift usage varied greatly between teams. Maybe the level of disdain a fan feel towards the shift depends on their favorite club’s approach. Considering the large delta between the World Series champion Dodgers and the Braves, perhaps the league finds a middle ground on shift usage without help from MLB rule-makers. Then again, maybe not. What about the Mariners? This piece is focusing on MLB, but I thought I’d quickly mention the Mariners since Prospect Insider’s primary reader base hails from the Pacific Northwest. As we saw above, the Mariners were mid-pack with their overall defensive shifting. However, Seattle used shifts more aggressively against lefty hitters ranking fourth highest in the majors behind the Dodgers (77%), Tigers (74%), and Reds (72.1%). Conversely, Mariner hitters faced a shift in 26.8-percent of their plate appearances. Here are the individual rates for prominent players from last year’s squad: Kyle Seager – 76.5%J.P. Crawford – 39.7%Evan White – 16.9%Dylan Moore – 7.9%Ty France – 7.2%Luis Torrens – 5.1%Kyle Lewis – 3.7% Please note the numbers for France and Torrens include their time with the Padres last year. Among 193 players with at least 150 plate appearances, Seager’s 76.5-percent shift rate ranked 19th highest in the majors. At the other end of the spectrum, Lewis ranked 178th. What should be done? The shift is aesthetically unpleasing. Therefore, it’s an easy target for people trying to identify what’s wrong with baseball. Yet, it remains unclear to me whether banning shifts would improve the game from an entertainment/excitement perspective. Yes, singles will increase. But we’ve seen the number of runners on the base paths probably won’t change much. There may be fewer home runs, although that’s not a certainty based on decades-long trends we discussed. Limiting or banning shifts won’t fix baseball’s “strikeout problem.” We should remember hitters from this era believe it’s more helpful to their team from a run production standpoint to strikeout than hit a grounder into a double play. They’re not wrong. Even if MLB banned shifts, would hitters abandon trying to put balls in the air? Remember, slugging gets players paid – not hitting singles. At some point, restrictive measures on shifts might make sense. But not right now for me. That said, I do have a compromise suggestion that could potentially curtail extreme shifting without direct intervention by MLB. Perhaps instituting a 20-second pitch clock, like the one the minor leagues already use, would have the second order effect of limiting the constant re-shifting between pitches. That’s something I’d support. MLB wouldn’t be dictating how teams deployed defenders. However, the time crunch between pitches may compel clubs to re-position less often. In the end, this may lead to less shifts league-wide. As I said earlier, I’m okay with people disagreeing with my rationale. But please consider this whenever debating about baseball. Our views about the game probably depend on the era we became fans, so our opinions can vary drastically. Even when we disagree, we still share a common bond – an affection for the game. With that in mind, I’ll continue listening to others’ ideas with an open mind – even if I don’t initially agree with them. Maybe I’ll learn something new. My Oh My… [tipjarwp id=”2″]Go!