Author: Jason A. Churchill

The Seattle Mariners have completed the process of their 2020 MLB Draft class by signing all six players, including top picks Emerson Hancock and Zach DeLoach. It’s clear at this stage the Mariners didn’t punt parts of the draft as it appeared was plausible after they went down the consensus board with every Day 2 pick … but we’re not here to discuss that just yet.

First, let’s do some firsts, bests and comps for the club’s draft class.

Most Likely All-Star
Emerson Hancock

By many accounts the top pitcher in the draft class and perhaps the safest best among all first-round arms to reach at least a mid-rotation floor. But there’s upside here, too, perhaps all the way to No. 1 starter. He’s built like a frontline arm, has four quality pitches and no significant issues throwing strikes, locating, tunneling the secondaries with the fastball or repeating his delivery.

Hancock could be part of 2022 or 2023 Mariners rotation that also boasts fellow first-round picks Logan Gilbert and George Kirby.

First Bat to the Majors
Zach DeLoach

The club’s second-round pick projects to hit for some average and showed solid plate skills and contact ability that combine for projectable on-base marks in pro ball.

The bat speed and strength DeLoach possesses suggests more power may be in the offing with the proper swing adjustments, which would only help his case for moving through the minors faster than any other bat in the six-player class.

Keenan, the Mariners’ fourth-round selection, isn’t far behind here, however. The biggest difference between the two overall is the defensive value and athleticism DeLoach brings versus Keenan’s likely limits to first base, but bat vs. bat it wouldn’t surprise anyone if either hitter reached the majors first, though DeLoach has the much better shot at a regular role.

First Arm to the Majors
Hancock

The No. 6 overall pick pitched in the SEC, amateur baseball’s highest level of competition, and displayed plenty of stuff and enough polish to make this an easy choice considering the rest of the club’s pitching class is upside-based.

Barring injury snags, Hancock should be on a similar path as Gilbert.

Best Fastball
Hancock

The right-hander has touched 99 mph and sits comfortably 93-96 with relative ease and big-league control and command.

Best Curveball
Hancock

It’s not the former Georgia star’s best present secondary pitch but it’s further along than that of CB-round-B pick Connor Phillips, who is a close runner-up.

Best Slider
Hancock

The best of Hancock’s two breaking balls is his slider, an 82-86 mph late breaker that plays well off his fastball.

Best Changeup
Hancock

The most advanced of Hancock’s offpseed pitches is his mid-80s changeup that has proven to be a swing-and-miss offering. He’s comfortable throwing it a lot and can keep it in the strike zone as an early-count weapon.

Best Power
Keenan

Keenan’s raw power sits somewhere above 60-grade, suggesting a full-season max-out in the 30-HR range.

Best Hit Tool
Kaden Polcovich was the club’s third-round pick on the strength of packing a solid hit tool into his equipment bag.

Led by a short, contact-oriented swing he’s learning to operate at higher efficiency rates, Polcovich enters pro ball equipped to continue the trend of high-quality plate appearances. He’s not going to walk a lot, but he’s also not going to strike out much and will find the barrel enough to hit for average. It’s a poor-man’s Nick Madrigal profile.

DeLoach has more upside in this area, but Polcovich has the present advantage.

Fastest Runner
DeLoach is no burner, but he uses his above-average speed well in the field and on the bases, giving him a slight edge over Polcovich for the honors.

Best Athlete
DeLoach edges Taylor Dollard and Polcovich here, thanks to average or better speed and overall physical tools.

Comps, Comps and More Comps

Round 1, No. 6: Hancock, RHP
I’ve gotten some Jake Peavy and James Shields comps for Hancock, and my own profile comp is Jack Flaherty, the current ace of the St. Louis Cardinals. Another one I have heard is Carlos Carrasco. Also: Chris Carpenter, Matt Garza, Jordan Zimmerman.

Keep in mind when folks find comps for players, it’s about the ceiling, both of the prospect and the comp itself, and that comping a prospect to a Hall of Famer just doesn’t happen very often, including right out of the draft before a prospect has a day logged as a pro.

Round 2, No. 43: DeLoach, OF
The most interesting one I heard was Kole Calhoun, not because it was the strongest or even the best, but because of the reason why.

Calhoun, always thought to be a right fielder, lacked the power of corner bat. Despite his 17 homers at Arizona State his junior year, scouts saw the numbers as a product of the bat (this was before the bat change in college baseball) and thought the hit tool was Calhoun’s best bet, but with a chance to get to average or better power — which Calhoun did. That’s DeLoach in 2020, but perhaps with a better tried and true skill set that projects safer than Calhoun’s.

I’ve also heard Denard Span — like DeLoach, an average center field glove with limited present power that relies on hitting, getting on base and solid skills across the board rather than wowing with one tool. DeLoach has the advantage of more raw power he could tap into, however.

Competitive Balance Round B, No. 64: Phillips, RHP
The most promising — and optimistic — comp on Phillips is Rick Porcello. Phillips is quite raw, however, and while he has comparable athleticism there’s probably not as much room to grow as a Porcello comp suggests.

Sound comps include Ian Kennedy, David Robertson, Daniel Hudson, Luke Gregerson, Jeremy Hellickson and Jeremy Guthrie.

Perhaps my favorite comp is Matt Shoemaker. Phillips tops out in the 93-96 mph range but if he’s to start could settle into the low-90s with average or better command, relying on solid-average secondaries and command, but perhaps with one plus offspeed pitch, which is what Shoemaker has done his entire career as a quality No. 4 starter.

Yes, there are some reliever comps in there — and I don’t really see the Robertson comp in any way — but if Phillips ends up being as valuable as any of these comps it’ll be a good pick by the Mariners.

Round 3, No. 78: Polcovich, UT
I’ve heard some David Eckstein comps, but I think Polcovich is more like Nick Punto, Ryan Theriot or Emilio Bonifacio in terms of skill. Eckstein wasn’t just short, he relied more on instinct and smarts at the plate than Polcovich will have to and the Mariners’ third-rounder has a clear strength and swing value advantage.

Round 4, No. 107: Keenan
Keenan, who likely moves to first base and could see a lot of time at DH as a big leaguers, has average or better hitting tools, including the potential for plus power.

On the upside, Lucas Duda and Luke Voit serve as physical and profile comps. On the profile side, Logan Morrison fits, too.

Adam Lind and Justin Bour also have been mentioned. I really like the Mike Napoli comp, but that’s also on the upside — and yes, I know, Napoli is a right-handed batter.

My favorite comps for Keenan are Eric Hinske and Garrett Jones.

Round 5, No. 137: Dollard, RHP

Dollard has four pitches. The fastball and slider lead the way, followed by his changeup and curveball, in that order. He’ll need more balance to remain a starter but all four project well enough to suggest legitimate promise.

The right-hander served as a reliever for his first two years at Cal Poly but was terrific in four starts in 2020, covering 27 innings and posting a 36-4 K/BB ratio. And before you get all “Cal Poly? They don’t play anybody,” take note: Dollard faced UConn, BYU, Michigan and Baylor this year, and Poly is a strong West Coast program, among the better ones outside the Power 5 conferences.

Dollard drew a lot of uninspiring comps from area scouts, but there were a few worth mentioning — and I really think scouts are putting too much stock in the fact Dollard made just four starts.

Kevin Correia was a fun one to check int.o. Correia pitched for parts of 13 seasons in the majors and at his best was  3-win starter for the San Diego Padres. He made 221 starts and 137 relief appearances. Dollard throws harder, but it’s very much a similar profile — average or above-average fastball (keep in mind Correia began his career in 2003 when the average fastball was in the 89-91 mph range, not 93-94 like it is now.

Other comps: Kevin Slowey, Jake Westbrook, former Mariners righty Scott Bankhead, Jon Garland, and Storm Davis.

The best comp I heard was Scott Williamson, a former reliever for the Cincinnati Reds. Dollard is taller and has a better chance to start long-term, but Williamson was athletic and in his prime touched the mid-90s and relied on a slider and changeup. Even the pitch mix is similar.…

One common theme building around the ‘sphere is the Seattle Mariners should prefer the player with the most upside at No. 6 overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, and that Louisville left-hander Reid Detmers doesn’t meet the standard, particularly when compared to other prospects that may be available, such as Minnesota right-hander Max Meyer, New Mexico State infielder Nick Gonzales and Oklahoma right-hander Cade Cavalli.

From recent conversations, I’m starting to believe otherwise.

I think it goes without saying — but I’ll say it anyway — there is at least a semi-consensus Top 5 in this class, in some order: Spencer Torkelson, Austin Martin, Asa Lacy, Emerson Hancock, and Zac Veen. After that, a group including Gonzales, Detmers, Gonzales, Cavalli, and rep righties Mick Abel and Jared Kelly seems to be the harmonious consent.

I’m creating my personal board from a Seattle Mariners standpoint — I shared the first draft on Zoom Wednesday night — but a discussion Thursday morning with an area scout and a check session with another has changed my mind on where Detmers fits.

First, let’s discuss the upside and risk of the other prospects generally considered in this range, using rankings and mock drafts.

Nick Gonzales, 2B — New Mexico State

Gonzales, a college shortstop, likely slides to second base — or even left field for some clubs — but has a quick-moving hit tool and some scouts see at least average power, even if he’s limited after that. We could be talking about a .300/.375/.450 hitter with solid-average defense and base value. The downside is the power, but more and more clubs are convinced he’s a 30-40 double, 12-15 home run bat, where the over-the-fence pop could spill over in an environment similar to 2019.

The most common comp for Gonzales is Milwaukee Brewers first-rounder Keston Hiura, but I’ve heard some Ian Kinsler and Aaron Hill comps, too, and both had multiple 4-fWAR seasons. I don’t think Gonzales ends up as good defensively, but that’s what a handful of scouts thinks of Gonzales’ hit tool and potential for meaningful power.

Gonzales’ upside probably looks something like that — a 4-5 win player in his prime.

Cade Cavalli, RHP — Oklahoma

Cavalli was a two-way talent until this spring when he focused solely on pitching. He’s up to 98 mph and firmly sits 93-95 with the fastball, and complements with two breaking balls, both of which flash big-league average or better. Scouts tend to favor the slider, an upper-80 out pitch, but the curveball is a hard, tight-spinning version, which Cavalli can bury or throw for strikes.

Cavalli doesn’t have a lot of miles on the arm, which is a plus, but his fastball movement is inconsistent. An adjustment may be necessary to get enough fastball value to use his other three pitches, including an improving changeup.

I’m a huge fan of Cavalli, who is a very good athlete, but there have been some ongoing back issues that will understandably concern clubs. He comes with a clean delivery and some projection left, too.

Cavalli brings No. 2 upside.

The Prep Arms

Kelly has the best velocity in the prep class, touching triple digits and living in the 94-97 mph range, while Abel may have the most projectable profile of any arm in the class, starting with very good athleticism and comparable present stuff.

Kelly’s changeup is more advanced than Abel’s, which in some draft rooms will give him the nod — especially this year as clubs look to mitigate risk more than ever. The questions on Abel include where his fastball sits right now — he was 91-94 mph last spring, reached 97 over the summer in short stints, but didn’t get a chance to pitch in 2020 to put on a display.

For me, neither player makes a lot of sense at No. 6, even if the pool savings exceed $1 million, but each brings No. 2 upside with a chance at even more than that. Of course, they come with more risk, too, and are inherently further away from the majors.

Max Meyer, RHP — Minnesota

Meyer is an athletic sub-6-foot right-hander with the best two-pitch combo in the class — an exploding fastball into the triple digits, holding mid-90s deep into games, and a hard, 89-93 mph slider that received a few 75 grades.

He commands both pitches well enough to pitch out of the bullpen in the majors right now. His changeup remains a work-in-progress, but shows promise as he develops command of it.

Size is a factor here, and while it doesn’t scare me, the Mariners, and other clubs, may put a higher premium on that risk, especially with their top pick. I’m more concerned with the development of a third pitch so he doesn’t experience issues finishing off batters and end up building deep pitch counts.

Meyer’s upside may include some No. 1 starter profiles.

Now, Detmers, contrary to every pitcher noted above that projects into the conversations — and we can add Tennessee lefty Garrett Crochet and Llano High School right-hander Justin Lange to this convo, too — doesn’t exceed mid-90s heat, nor does he bring much physical projection.

So how in the world can he make as much sense for Seattle at No. 6?

For one, there’s not a lot of risk in taking Detmers. He’s going to pitch in the majors, as a starter, and probably somewhere in front of the No. 5 starter. Relatively speaking, because he’s a pitcher, he carries more risk than Gonzales, but far less than the other arms noted above.

His upside is being slept on, however, and it seems the reason is because many want the big fastball and physical tools that suggest the prototypical frontline starting pitcher.

Side Note: Folks using size to curb a college player’s upside always burns me, especially with pitchers. We’ve learned this lesson, over and over, so I’m not sure why it exists in conversation anymore. Either the stuff and projected performance carry big upside or they don’t. A player lacking certain size doesn’t dictate the upside, it presents reasonable concerns of risk of injury and durability, and factors in heavily to projections, but not upside. Meyer is an example right here in this class.

Look at last year’s fWAR leaders among starting pitchers. In the top 25 are Jacob deGRom, Zack Greinke, Sonny Gray, Luis Castillo, Marcus Stroman, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Marco Gonzales, all 6-foot-2 and under.

Reid Detmers, LHP — Louisville

Guess who else is 6-foot-2? Detmers.

Detmers owns the draft’s best curveball, a shapely hammer in the 71-74 mph range. The velocity is what generally pushes away the doubters. Detmers sits 90-92 mph and is up to 94. His fastball, however, plays up thanks to deception and the consistency and value of his secondaries, which also includes an average changeup with a chance to be plus, and a slider he could use more in pro ball to get inside to right-handed batters.

He also shows a bulldog mentality, ultra pitchability, and leadership.

He profiles as a No. 3 starter. Don’t let anyone suggest mid-rotation is bad. That is, by definition, a No. 3 starter, and they’re typically worth 3.5-4.5 wins a year, not surprisingly very similar to the projection on Nick Gonzales.

But what separates Detmers and gives him a chance to be more than a No. 3 is his command. Some scouts easily hand Detmers 60 command overall, 65 of the fastball, and a few others suggest by the time he reaches the majors we could be watching 70-grade command from a lefty into the 93-95 mph range with two above-average secondaries, including a plus curveball.

That is why Detmers is worthy of consideration over Gonzales.

He has risk and ETA advantages over Cavalli, Meyer and the prep arms, and while he’s unlikely to be signable at a significant discount like some, including the prep pitchers, Garrett Mitchell, Crochet, Tyler Soderstrom, Pete Crow-Armstrong, he’s also not going to take over-slot money.

I wouldn’t say I’m off Gonzales at No. 6, but it’s not as easy a decision as it seemed a month ago, and I’m leaning Meyer, Cavalli or Detmers at No. 6, assuming similar signability and cost in all cases.…

Photo: Cody Bellinger (35) & Corey Seager (5), who both could have been Mariners had Seattle drafted perfectly throughout the years.

2020 MLB Draft: Top 20 Prospects
Draft History: Every Teams Best Unsigned Pick

The Seattle Mariners haven’t won a thing since 2001, and the club hasn’t reached 90 victories in a season since 2003. The roster construction has been poor, but the franchise’s scouting and player development has failed miserably during that time.,

Since rebuilding, re-imagining, going young, properly supplementing, or whatever you want to call the club’s attempts over that span requires success in the draft and the Mariners haven’t enjoyed much of that, let’s re-draft for them over the 11-year period between Bill Bavasi’s tenure through Jack Zduriencik’s tenure.

We get to use hindsight here, but I’ll share some draft=day thoughts of each 1st-round pick by the club over the 11 seasons.

Below are the Mariners first-round picks, including 1st-round comp picks, and the re-draft selection based on our 20-20 hindsight.

Remember, other clubs in a re-draft scenario, including those drafting ahead of Seattle, would get shots on these players. The re-draft selection is the absolute best the Mariners could have done with that pick based on results since draft day, presenting what essentially would amount to perfect picks.

Yes, I’m trying to make you mad online about Mariners drafts.

I stopped at 2015 for two reasons. One, that’s the last draft before Jerry Dipoto took over as the GM, and not enough time has passed to do much analysis on draft class after that.

2005
The No. 3 Pick: Jeff Clement, C — USC
The Mariners were heavily linked to Long Beach State SS Troy Tulowitzki and Virginia 3B Ryan Zimmerman — on the recommendation of former GM and then-consultant Pat Gillick — but catching coordinator Roger Hansen signed off on Clement’s hands and feet and the Mariners went the way of the bat-first catcher.

Had Clement not suffered injuries to both knees and to his left elbow, there’s a decent chance he not only would have caught a lot of games in the majors, but hit a little bit, too. But it’s also easy to see why he broke down. Clement was not a great athlete and lacked some of the strength attributes clubs look for in backstops, and Seattle simply went into this hoping Clement could get by in these areas enough to allow his bat to provide the value.

Re-Draft: Troy Tulowitzki

You can make a case for Andrew McCutchen, and by pure rWAR, Ryan Braun, too. Justin Upton may pass them all simply by playing longer. And No. 103 pick Brett Gardner‘s WAR output is between Tulowitzki and Upton.

2006
The No. 5 Pick: Brandon Morrow, RHP — California
Seattle was linked to local arm Tim Lincecum early in the process, but mostly Luke Hochevar out of Tennessee. The fans wanted Lincecum or North Carolina lefty Andrew Miller, who was thought to be the best player in the class at the time by at least a slight majority. Miller went No. 6 to Detroit.

Re-Draft: Clayton Kershaw, LHP — Highland Park HS (Texas)
While it would have been fun seeing Lincecum, a University of Washington star out o Liberty High School, star for the Mariners, Kershaw tuned out to be the best player in the class and is a future Hall of Famer.

2007
The No. 11 Pick: Phillippe Aumont, RHP — Ecole Du Versant
I heard a lot of Beau Mills and Matt Dominguez to Seattle in 2007, and they also were linked quite a bit to Daniel Moskos, who ended up going No. 4 overall to Pittsburgh.

The ideal selection here would have been Jason Heyward, who went No. 14 to the Atlanta Braves. Madison Bumgarner went one pick ahead of Seattle at No. 10 to the San Francisco Giants.

Re-Draft: Freddie Freeman, 1B — El Modena HS (Calif.)
Josh Donaldson, the catcher from Auburn, has compiled the highest rWAR for players picked after the Mariners, but
Heyward would have been a good pick, too, and second-round pick Giancarlo Stanton isn’t far behind. Freeman is less than a season’s worth of WAR behind Donaldson and Stanton and he’s younger than Donaldson by more than four years and healthier than Stanton.

2008
The No. 20 Pick: Josh Fields, RHR — Georgia
This pick was made by the combo of Bill Bavasi and Bob Fontaine and the idea was Fields could be signed and perhaps pitch out of the big-league bullpen later that summer. But he didn’t sign at all in 2008, making the pick one of the worst in franchise history.

But an even worse decision came a year later when Jack Zduriencik decided to sign Fields before the deadline rather than get the No. 21 pick in the 2009 Draft as compensation.

Seattle was linked to numerous players for this pick, including lefty Christian Friedrich — who was my preference at the time — and 1B Ike Davis, whow ent two pick prior to the New York Mets. The Mariners also were linked to Brett Lawrie, who went No. 16 to the Milwaukee Brewers.

Re-Draft: Lance Lynn, RHP — Mississippi
Gerrit Cole is the best player drafted after Seattle in this class, but he went No. 28 to the New York Yankees and didn’t sign, even using our hindsight goggles we can’t suggest Cole would have signed with the Mariners.

Brandon Crawford, the shortstop from UCLA, has out-WAR’d Lynn, but he’s running out of steam while Lynn just had his best season. Crawford went to the Giants in Round 4.

Lynn, a draftee of the Mariners three years prior, would have had to give permission to be re-drafted by Seattle, but he’s clearly the next-best choice. Jake Odorizzi, who went No. 32 to the Brewers, wouldn’t have been a bad pick, either.

It wasn’t a good class, with only 11 players compiling 10 rWAR or more thus far.

2009
The No. 2 Pick: Dustin Ackley, OF
At the time this was absolutely the right pick, with no other club believing any other player was worth the risk at No.2 overall.

Re-Draft: Mike Trout, OF — Milville HS (N.J.)

Trout would a lot of clubs’ re-draft pick in this draft, including the Nationals twice and the Diamondbacks twice. At least the Nationals got Stephen Strasburg at No. 1.

The most egregious misses in the round are the Padres at No. 3 selecting Donavan Tate, who never reached Double-A ball and is now out of baseball altogether, and the Pirates at No. 4 getting 0.1 rWAR out of Tony Sanchez.

There was a lot of talent in this class, but a lot of it was prep pitching that didn’t pan out including lefty-hander Tyler Matzek, a name Seattle was linked to as a backup plan in case negotiations went haywire with Ackley, and Shelby Miller.

The No. 27 Pick: Nick Franklin, SS — Lake Brantley HS (Fla.)

While Franklin wasn’t going to be a star or anything, the Mariners’ player development process failed him big time. He was a confident gamer with underrated hands and had plenty of tools to play second base.

Re-Draft: Nolan Arenado, 3B — El Toro HS (Calif.)

Paul Goldschmidt was taken No. 246 overall by Arizona and has compiled 43.6 rWAR to Arenado’s 37.6, but contracts aside, I’d take Arenado if we had a time machine.

The No. 33 Pick: Steve Baron, C — Ferguson School (Fla.)
Baron has all the physical tools to catch, but needed a lot of work at the plate and it never came to fruition. Another development issue, but with Rex Brothers, Matt Davidson and my favorite Tyler Skaggs on the board, this was a largely disappointing decision. Heck, Richards was available here, too.

Re-Draft: Goldschmidt

The Mariners, for picks 27 and 33, were connected to Cal outfielder Brett Jackson, who went to the Cubs at No. 31.

2010
The Mariners did not have a first-round pick in this draft due to the signing of Chone Figgins, but they did have a comp-rounder.

The No. 43 Pick: Taijuan Walker, RHP — Yucaipa HS (Calif.)
By pure rWAR, Nicholas Castellanos has been more valuable to date and he went one pick later, but this story isn’t yet complete. Walker is just 27 years old.

Seattle was linked to Alex Wimmers, Deck McGuire, Jesse Biddle and Jake Skole quite a bit leading up to this pick.

Re-Draft: Andrelton Simmons, SS — W. OKlahoma State

2011
The No. 2 Pick: Danny Hultzen, LHP — Virginia
We all know this story by now.

I was told by multiple sides the Mariners wanted to take Anthony Rendon but couldn’t risk the medicals, and they weren’t the only club convinced that was too big a risk. in the top 5. I was also told Seattle really liked Francisco Lindor and scouting director Tom McNamara told Lindor’s agent he was their guy.

And maybe he was, up until it came time to make the pick, anyway.

Zduriencik and McNamara went to see Hultzen four Fridays in a row and he became the club’s No. 1 target.

Bubba Starling was only signable for Kansas City. Dylan Bundy was only signable for Baltimore. So Seattle went with Hultzen, a lefty up to 96 mph and three potential big-league pitches.

Only problem was, they ignored his red-flag delivery.

Re-Draft: Mookie Betts, OF — Overton HS (Tenn.)
Rendon has the rWAR edge over Lindor entering 2020 but only by 1.5 and Lindor is three years younger. Cole, who went No. 1 to Pittsburgh, also would be a sound re-draft choice, as would George Springer, who has been worth 25.4 rWAR, just 2.2 fewer than Lindor. Springer is 30.

But Betts has a large rWAR lead over all of them, so far, including an MVP in 2018 when he posted 10.6 rWAR. Betts went No. 172 overall (Round 5).

2012
The No. 3 Pick: Mike Zunino, C — Florida

I take issue with folks ragging on this pick in the manner they do. Did it work out well? No. Was it a BAD pick? Absolutely not.

Even if you think Zunino was a more proper fit in this class between Nos. 7 and 12, you can’t argue the No. 12 pick in an average class shouldn’t be better than a 6.8 rWAR player after seven and a half years.

Player development process failed Zunino big-time.

Still, Zunino has been the 13th most valuable player from this class, despite the awful developmental approach by the club.

I had heard Kevin Gausman, Byron Buxton, Kyle Zimmer and, somewhat oddly, Andrew Heaney connected to Seattle for this pick. Heaney may have been a below-slot backup plan, but the club scouted him heavily late leading up to draft day.

Gausman went No. 4 to Baltimore, Zimmer to the Royals at No. 5 and Heaney No. 9 to the Marlins.

I believe they would have taken Byron Buxton if he lasted one more pick.

Re-Draft: Corey Seager, SS — Northwest Cabbarrus HS (N.C.)
Seager has been the No. 2 player in this class so far, behind only No. 1 pick Carlos Correa, and Seager missed all but 26 games in 2018 with Tommy John surgery.

Marcus Stroman is a win behind Seager. Matt Olson is 3.5 wins back and Mitch Haniger, despite his late arrival and injuries, is next in line.

2013
The No. 12 Pick: D.J. Peterson, 3B — New Mexico
Peterson was my least favorite first-round pick in the Jack-TMC era. There were questions about the hit tool, and there were question about his ability to play third base. It appeared Seattle may have selected a .240/.300/.450, 25-homer first baseman ahead of a number of other players with better profiles.

Seattle was linked heavily to Hunter Renfroe, who went a pick later to the Padres, and prep righty Phil Bickford, who went two pick before. I never heard them much on Dominic Smith, but it would have made more sense.

One Mariners checker at the time told me he wanted Aaron Judge, but McNamara wasn’t interested.

Re-Draft: Cody Bellinger, OF — Hamilton HS (Ariz.)
Aaron Judge has been the No. 2 player in this class so far behind Kris Bryant, but Bellinger, the No. 124 pick in this draft,  is the best player in the National League and is just 24.

Other key players drafted after Peterson include Tim Anderson, J.P. Crawford and Austin Meadows.

I know there were scouts in the room fighting for Anderson and Crawford at No. 12.

2014
The Pick at No. 6: Alex Jackson, C — Rancho Bernardo HS (Calif.)
Another instance where the pick was right, but nothing else was.

Jackson was being considered as high as No. 4 and had all the tools to not only hit and hit for power, but catch. Despite being traded to the Braves, Jackson still has yet to put it together. He moved to the outfield early in his Mariners career, but is back behind the plate with Atlanta. He made his MLB debut last season. He’s just 24, so there still is time, but it didn’t happen in Seattle.

Re-Draft: Matt Chapman, 3B — Fullerton State
Chapman has been the class MVP thus far, just ahead of Aaron Nola.

Treat Turner, who went a pick after Seattle took Jackson, would have worked out OK, too.

The popular opinion on draft day was Seattle should have taken Oregon State’s Michael Conforto, who played at Redmond High School. While hindsight tells us that for sure would have worked out better, I’m not 100% sure the Mariners wouldn’t have ruined a lot of these players. Some of the elites like Lindor, Rendon and Trout would have found a way, but I wouldn’t put Conforto in that category.

Fun fact: The top two picks in this draft has yet to reach Double-A.

2015
Seattle did not have a first-round pick in this draft thanks to the signing of Robinson Cano. In Round 2, they selected Nick Neidert, a right-hander out of Peachtree Ridge High School in Georgia.

Jerry Dipoto traded Neidert to Miami in the deal for Dee Gordon and Shohei Ohtani money. Neidert is on the brink of the majors, but it doesn’t look like he’s going to be more than a No. 4 or 5 starter, and likely is an up-and-down starter as a command-and-feel arm with below-average stuff.

Brandon Lowe, who went to the Rays at No. 87, would have been the better pick, as would have Harrison Bader, who went No. 100 to the Cardinals.…