Author: Jason A. Churchill

Posted: Nos. 11-20 Posted: Nos. 21-30 Posted: Nos. 31-40 Wednesday: No. 5 Thursday: No. 4 Friday: No. 3 Saturday, Feb. 27: No. 2 Sunday, Feb. 28: No. 1 Monday, March 1: Best Tools Tuesday, March 2: How many Mariners prospects would be No. 1 elsewhere? Wednesday March 3: Projected 2024 Lineup, Rotation, Bullpen Thursday, March 4: Projecting the Top 10 Prospects after the season The Seattle Mariners farm system is as deep as it’s ever been. There’s big-league talent beyond the club’s Top 20. Below is prospects Nos. 11-20. Important note: There’s a delicate balance between upside, risk, and ETA, but the difference between No. 10 and No. 5 or No. 6 isn’t as significant as it may seem in some cases. NO PLAYER POS ETA BEST TOOL 2021 6 George Kirby RHP 2023 COMMAND A+/AA 7 Taylor Trammell LF 2021 HIT AAA/MLB 8 Cal Raleigh C 2021 POWER AAA/MLB 9 Brandon Williamson LHP 2023 FASTBALL A+/AA 10 Isaiah Campbell RHP 2023 FASTBALL A/A+ 10. Isaiah Campbell, RHP Campbell has yet to throw a competitive pitch in pro ball but has size (6-4/230) and projectable command that should allow his four-pitch mix to work as a starter with a chance to move quickly. It might make sense for the right-hander to focus on one of his breaking balls in 2021, and the slider is further along than his slow, somewhat loopy curveball which might be better used as an early-count eye-level changer than an out pitch. He creates plane by staying on top of a high three-quarters slot and despite some barking about his long arm path throws strikes. There’s some tail to his fastball and he does a good job maintaining arm speed throughout his arsenal. Campbell is adept at attacking the entire zone. The cub’s comp-round pick from two years back could start 2021 at either Class-A affiliate but has a chance to move up once or twice this season. As a starter he carries mid-rotation upside. TOOLS FB SL CB CH CO 60+ (92-96) 50+ (80-83) 45 (71-75) 50+ (81-84) 50 9. Brandon Williamson, LHP Williamson has been up to 97 mph with his fastball and carries a better set of secondary pitches than does Campbell. If he had more experience and was a step or two closer to the majors I likely would have him ranked 2-3 spots higher. He’s athletic and uses his 6-foot-6 frame to pitch downhill with his fastball, curveball and slider, all of which project as big-league pitches. The curveball is above-average and has a chance to be the best in the organization. His changeup needs a lot of work but has flashed near average and should at least be useful in time. Williamson’s arm slot is around three-quarters, perhaps a bit lower, helping him create angles that prove difficult for both lefties and righties when he stays closed and explodes through release point. His fastball has life up in the zone and he uses it well on both edges to right-handed batters. Williamson has a chance to be a very good No. 3, with good  fastball command and changeup quality his biggest hurdles. He should start 2021 in Class-A Everett with a shot to move up as the year progresses, and could easily speed up his ETA. TOOLS FB SL CB CH CO 65 (93-97) 50 (84-87) 55+ (78-82) 55 (83-86) 45+ 8. Cal Raleigh, C Raleigh is never going to be mistaken for Yadier Molina or Pudge Rodriguez defensively, but he’s answered a lot of questions with playable answers, and offers the kinds of intangibles clubs want from catchers. Raleigh is a tough leader, has improved his receiving and framing, and his above-average arm strength plays up with good accuracy and consistent mechanics. He’s worked hard to maintain his conditioning in order stay behind the dish. His calling card, however, is power, showing legitimate 60-grade pop from the left side and fringe-average, doubles power from the right. He has average bat speed, but the swing is a bit long, so he’s likely to swing and miss quite a bit, with home runs as the payoff. His left-handed swing is also his better side in terms of contact and hitting for average, though there hasn’t been any buzz about giving up switch-hitting, and it might be less than ideal to do it now when he’s so close to the majors. Raleigh projects as an average catcher led by power hitting, but if the hit tool catches up a bit with experience he could see some DH time when he’s not catching, perhaps extending his career that otherwise could be shortened by a lack of athleticism. TOOLS HIT PWR FIELD THROW RUN 40+ 60 45 55 30 7. Taylor Trammell, OF His plus to plus-plus speed jumps out and he’s always shown an above-average ability to get the barrel to the ball. The bat speed suggests raw power into the mid-teens or better, but the attempts to unlock it appear to have hurt his ability to hit for average in 2019. There’s still too much swing-and-miss in his game considering the more likely power production, which is the largest hurdle to his chances to hit big-league pitching. But he’s always drawn walks and provided value in the field and on the bases. Trammell’s swing is still a work-in-progress and as a result I don’t have as much confidence as some regarding his ETA. I do, however, buy his defensive value more than most, even if his below-average arm keeps him in left field. There’s some Starling Marte in Trammell’s upside, and some Jacque Jones in the median projection. It’s difficult to imagine he’s not a major-league player, considering the speed and defense. The exact role is yet to be determined. He’ll start 2021 in Triple-A Tacoma, probably playing both center and left, and likely gets at least a cup of java with the big club later in the season. TOOLS HIT PWR FIELD THROW RUN 55 50 50+ 40+ 60+ 6. George Kirby, RHP Kirby’s best attributes lend tons of confidence in his ETA and floor, led by plus-plus control, plus command and athleticism that helps him repeat his delivery very well. The right-hander will cruise 91-94 mph but there’s more velocity to come based on the occasional 95 in college and his work at the alternate training site that produced a lot of 95-99 in the fall. The four-seamer has life and run, and his slider, an above-average, 84-87 mph breaker, is his best chance to be a true swing-and-miss offering. His changeup has flashed plus and I project it to land there in time, and he uses a 79-82 curveball effectively versus left-handed hitters, burying it below the zone or getting called strikes. It’s not as consistent or sharp as the slider, but should remain an early-count weapon. Kirby projects as a No. 3 starter for me, and the floor isn’t much of a drop. I think there’s a decent chance he’s better than Logan Gilbert or Emerson Hancock, perhaps thrusting Kirby into No. 2 status, though I fall quite shy of seeing a No. 1 starter or true ace. I think he’s ultimately more than a command-and-feel right-hander who wins with efficiency. TOOLS FB SL CB CH CO 60+ 60 50 60 65 NO PLAYER POS ETA BEST TOOL 2021 11 Juan Then RHP 2022 FASTBALL A+/AA 12 Zach DeLoach CF 2023 HIT A+ 13 Jonatan Clase CF 2025 RUN A/A+ 14 Austin Shenton 3B 2022 HIT AA 15 Sam Carlson RHP 2024 FASTBALL R/A 16 Andres Munoz RHP 2021 FASTBALL AAA/MLB 17 Connor Phillips RHP 2023 FASTBALL R/A 18 Levi Stoudt RHP 2023 FASTBALL A/A+ 19 Jake Fraley OF 2021 HIT AAA/MLB 20 Milkar Perez 3B 2024 HIT R/A 21 Ljay Newsome RHP 2021 COMMAND AAA/MLB 22 Anthony Misiewicz LHR 2021 CURVEBALL MLB 23 Will Vest RHR 2021 FASTBALL MLB 24 George Feliz CF 2025 HIT R 25 Braden Bishop CF 2021 FIELD AAA/MLB 26 Yohan Ramirez RHR 2021 SLIDER AAA/MLB 27 Joey Gerber RHR 2021 FASTBALL AAA/MLB 28 Adam Macko LHP 2024 CURVEBALL A/A+ 29 Wyatt Mills RHR 2021 FASTBALL AAA/MLB 30 Sam Delaplane RHR 2021 CURVEBALL AAA/MLB 31 Carter Bins C 2023 FIELD A+/AA 32 Alberto Rodriguez OF 2024 HIT A 33 Aaron Fletcher LHR 2021 SLIDER AAA/MLB 34 Kaden Polcovich 2B 2023 HIT A/A+ 35 Damon Casetta-Stubbs RHP 2024 FASTBALL A/A+ 36 Michael Limoncelli RHP 2025 CURVEBALL R 37 Kristian Cardozo RHP 2026 CURVEBALL R 38 Starlin Aguilar OF 2026 POWER R 39 Tyler Keenan 1B 2023 POWER A/A+ 40 Taylor Dollard RHP 2023 CHANGEUP A  Go!

Since we’re just days from pitchers and catchers reporting for spring training, let’s continue the discussions, preview-style. First, we talked pitchers — starters and relievers alike — so now let’s go over every position player. All players on the 40-man roster and others invited to camp are discussed below. The Mariners, as a team, ranked No. 22 in runs scored a year ago. They finished No. 24 in batting average at .226, No. 26 in on-base percentage (.309) and No. 28 in slugging at .370. The club’s 91 wRC+ ranked No. 23. Seattle was 25th in the league with 60 home runs, 13th in walk rate (9.5%), and struck out 25% of the time, good for 8th-most in baseball. On the bases, the club finished No. 2 in the entire league behind the Colorado Rockies by one measure — rankings seen here. Defensively, the Mariners ranked No. 9 in MLB in Defensive Runs Saved, but several other metrics grade them below average. Of course, they did all that without their best player, and over a small sample, so caveats apply in either direction. Projections below are subject to change with roster additions. Projected Starting Infield The starting infield is going to look very similar to start 2021, with three returning starters and a part-timer from a year ago likely taking over regularly. Evan White, 1B 2020: .176/.252/.346, 8 HR, 8.9% BB, 41.6% K, 66 wRC+, -0.2 fWAR White was quite literally hit or miss in 54 games last season, struggling to make consistent contact and landing on the extreme edges in terms of batted balls — 84.7% registered as ground balls or fly balls, just 15.3% line drives. Hitting the ball hard is not an issue, as evidenced by his average exit velocity of 91.7 mph, hard-hit rate of 52.5%, and barrel percentage of 14.1, and neither is generating loft anymore, thanks to adjustments made in the minors. But he whiffed on more than 15% of his swings, the 16th-highest rate in all of baseball among batters with 200 or more plate appearances. There was a hole at the top of the zone and above his hands where opposing teams attacked with velocity, and he struggled mightily versus any kind of offspeed stuff. He’s the best defensive first baseman I’ve seen — ever — and can make plays with his feet, eyes, arm, and instincts, but to serve in a regular role in the majors he has a lot of areas to improve at the plate. The good news is, they’re the types of things that come with experience — plate coverage, overall discipline, swing consistency — and his chase rate last season of 28.4% is acceptable for a run producer. Dylan Moore, 2B 2020: .255/.358/.496, 8 HR, 8.8% BB, 27.0% K, 138 wRC+, 1.4 fWAR Moore was very good in 2020, but his sample is even smaller than most everyday players. He spent a stint on the IL and ended up with only 159 plate appearances in 38 games. Still, the results were promising, led by pop one normally doesn’t expect for a middle infielder, and speed one does. Moore played a lot of outfield last year but should be the regular second baseman to start 2021 — he’s earned that, regardless of the diplomatic position-battle chatter the club will toss out to the public all spring. Moore’s versatility is helpful, however, especially since the club is anything but deep up the middle. His ability to handle shortstop gives the Mariners roster flexibility — they don’t have to carry another player that can play shortstop, just one that can handle second base, and they have no shortage of that. The 28-year-old Moore made his living last season on fastballs — .333 AVG, 6 HR, .693 SLG — and was dominated by anything softer. He’ll have to make that rather large fix or his .255 batting average is likely to fall through the floor, and his power potential will follow. On a World Series contender, Moore is probably a solid utility player that received 300 PAs per season and can fill in admirably over the long haul if a starter suffers a significant injury. For now, he has a chance to be an average regular, and 2021 is going to tell us a lot about his chances to achieve that. J.P. Crawford, SS 2020: .255/.336/.338, 2 HR, 9.9% BB, 16.8% K, 94 wRC+, 1.1 fWAR Crawford has a solid 2020, despite continued streakiness and a lack of punch. He’s an above-average to plus glove, and that’s not going anywhere, and is very good on the bases despite average speed. At 26, there’s still time for the Gold Glover to break through at the plate, but it’s my opinion the swing he’s employing limits his ability to maximize his bat-to-ball skills. The plane, one of the line-drive variety, is ideal, since Crawford lacks the kind of raw power to take advantage of consistently hitting the ball in the air. But he gets his swing started a bit late, and I believe his hands are a tad high and a bit too far back toward the backstop as the pitch is released .In addition, there’s a bit of a bat wrap — the top of the bat is angled back toward the field, creating a longer path to get to the ball. Considering Crawford’s bat speed is merely average, these are real problems. As a result, Crawford gets jammed too easy and is too often late with the head of the bat. This makes him susceptible to, well, everything. If he cheats on hard stuff, soft stuff eats him alive. If he anticipates offspeed, he has no chance on fastballs. These issues also impact Crawford’s strike zone coverage. He makes consistent contact, it’s simply not consistently hard contact (31.1%), and he struggles to find the barrel (1.8%). I also don’t see proper balance, but that’s a longer conversation for another day. Even small improvements with the swing could show up in another 10-20 points in average and OBP, and may even unlock a little bit more power. He’s already a 2-win player, so more offense could shoot Crawford toward three. Kyle Seager, 3B 2020: .241/.355/.433, 9 HR, 12.9%, 13.3%, 118 wRC+, 1.5 fWAR If it doesn’t break, Seager hits it and hits it hard. That’s about where the veteran is as a hitter nowadays. He hit .260 with six homers and a .488 slugging percentage versus fastballs in 2020, and .321 with two home runs and a .536 slugging percentage versus splitters and changeups. Sliders and curveballs gave Seager fits, however, and carved his season down to decent. Seager’s contact skills remain high, but it may serve him well to be a bit more aggressive — he offered at just 40% of the pitches he saw last season — to decrease the number of breaking balls he sees. He’s using the whole field more effectively the past two seasons — particularly the middle of the field — and that game plan and mechanical adjustments have given Seager a better ability to cover the zone and find a few hits he wasn’t back in 2018. Seager did struggle late last season after a hit start, but the whole sample is small, so the struggles in September (.189) shouldn’t be overstated. But it’s also worth noting he posted a .371 OBP during that stretch, an extension of his improved ability to judge the strike zone and limit swings and misses. Seager enters his 11th and final season in Seattle with 207 career home runs and 280 doubles, both 4th in Mariners history. He’s also 4th in hits (1,267), 5th in runs scored, 4th in RBI, 5th in total bases, 5th in games (1,321) and 5th in rWAR (33.4) among position players. He can move into 4th all-time in games this season, and his defensive rWAR could surpass Dave Valle, Alex Rodriguez and Harold Reynolds to vault the third baseman into sixth place. Projected Starting Catcher Tom Murphy 2019: .273/.324/.535, 18 HR, 6.8% BB, 31.0% K, 126 wRC+, 3.2 fWAR Murphy, 29, got to his plus raw power in 2019, and missed 2020 recovering from knee surgery. He’s expected to be the No. 1 catcher this season, however, perhaps catching 55-60% of the games. While the power is real, there are reasons to wonder whether or not Murphy can replicate his 2019 offensive output. is strikeout rate is high, his BABIP of .340 is high, and there is more of a book on him now than prior to that season when he had just 210 big-league plate appearances spread out over the previous four seasons. Whether Murphy can do it again and over a full season remains to be seen, but I do believe he can hit .250/.300/.450 (considering the ball has been altered to somewhat limit the bounce). That, paired with solid-average defense, and Murphy could easily post a 2.5-win campaign, or better. Projected Starting Outfield Barring further additions to the roster, the Mariners will start the season with just two ‘starters’ in the outfield and what appears to be a timeshare of sorts in left field. Mitch Haniger, RF 2019: .220/.314/.463, 15 HR, 10.6% BB, 28.6% K, 106 wRC+, 1.1 fWAR Haniger’s 63-game sample in 2019 was weird. He hit for power — paced for 40 homers — although he wasn’t hitting the ball in the gaps much and his strikeout rate was up nearly 7% from the prior season. He did pull the ball significantly more in 2019 than any other year, which may have been by design, but it also may explain some of the inconsistencies in his ability to make contact. A healthy Haniger is a big boost to the Mariners lineup — again, I’d bat him leadoff and stop miscasting Crawford into a top-of-the-lineup role — and I’d be willing to bet on a return to form. In back-to-back seasons 2017-18, Haniger batted better than .280, posted an OBP over .350 (.352, .366) and slugged .490 or better with very consistent, sustainable batted ball data. Haniger swung through more fastballs in 2019 than ever before and there is evidence the cause was his attempts to elevate the ball more. If he’s healthy and gets back to his pre-2019 game plan, there’s no reason he can’t put up a 3.5-4 win season. Maybe better. There’s also a chance he does it with two teams. Kyle Lewis, CF 2020: .262/.364/.437, 11 HR, 14.0% BB, 29.3% K, 126 wRC+, 1.6 fWAR Lewis had a very good 58-game rookie season, spraying the ball around the yard and staying competitive versus fastballs, breaking balls and changeups alike. But Lewis should be more explosive, and in order to do that he has to get to his pull side more. Nearly 70% of his batted balls went up the middle or the other way, tied for 6th-most in baseball. Here are the top 6: Raimel Tapia DJ LeMahieu Whit Merrifield Jackie Bradley Jr. Kolten Wong Trea Turner See the common theme here? Yeah, those hitters have little in common with Lewis. They’re contact hitters, doubles hitters, and in the case of LeMahieu, a doubles hitter with some HR power that fits his home ballpark well. For context, among the top 25 home-run hitters in MLB in 2020, only three had pull rates under 35% (Nelson Cruz, Nicholas Castellanos, Juan Soto) and only seven pulled the balls under 40% of the time. Considering Lewis’ home park, a severe pull strategy doesn’t make much sense, but hitting a lot of balls to center field isn’t ideal, either, especially when most of them are of the fly ball variety. Lewis has 70 raw power. I’d rather he took more chances hitting fly balls to left and left-center than to center and to the opposite field. Slugging .437 is fine for a small sample for a young player, but the 2020 American League Rookie of the Year is more than capable of 30-40 homers while batting .260 or better with strong OBPs. Projected Starting DH Ty France 2020: ..305/.368/.468, 4 HR, 7.1% BB, 23.9% K, 132 wRC+, 0.9 fWAR France had a better season at the plate than Moore in a similar sample size, and he’s two years younger. So if you’re optimistic on Moore — and I am, at least for 2021 — you have to be encouraged by what France has shown so far. He’s a 40-grade second baseman and at-best a 45-grade third baseman — though the trend here is up — but he can fake at either spot and all signs point to France hitting. It’s 60 raw power and a chance to hit for average, suggesting his bat could carry him to an everyday role despite the defensive deficiencies. France’s average exit velocity wasn’t all that impressive last season — 85.7 mph — naturally leading to a pedestrain hard-hit rate of 29.8%, but just 16.3% of his batted balls registered as soft contact. That will lead to a lot of hits and suggests barrel awareness. His barrel rate of 8.7% backs up such a theory. France is likely to DH a lot in 2021, but he’s passable at first and third and considering how Seattle plays the shift versus left-handed batters he could be situationally playable as a second base option. Projected Reserves Luis Torrens, C 2020: .257/.325/.371, HR, 9.0% BB, 19.2% K, 96 wRC+, -0.2 fWAR. Torrens is a bat-first catcher at present, but has all the physical tools to be at least average defensively. He may be a bit too undersized to catch enough to ever be a true No. 1 option, but projects as a terrific pairing with Cal Raleigh. Torrens has always been selective and showed solid strike zone judgment in his cup of coffee last summer. He’s short to the ball with a line-drive stroke that serves all fields, and he stays back on breaking balls, suggesting consistent contact. The bat speed is above average and capable of producing the kinds of exit velos that generate a lot of doubles and at least a handful of long balls. Shed Long Jr., 2B/3B/LF 2020: .171/.242/.291, 3 HR, 8.6% BB, 28.9% K, 49 wRC+, 0.0 fWAR Long wasn’t healthy last season from the get-go and finally succumbed to surgery. In a 42-game sample two years ago, Long batted .263/.333/.454, which was more in line with his trends in the minors. He’s a good athlete with at least above-average speed, and is capable at second base. He has bits of experience at third base and left field, both of which may come into play in 2021. When healthy, Long stays home versus left-handed pitching and uses the whole field, and his average or better raw power shows up mainly versus righties. The swing is generally terrific, sans a bit of a hitch at its trigger point. But he’s quite adept at staying with himself and getting to his power organically. He has gap power to left-center and his two-strike swing is sound. I think Long is most likely a solid, multi-position reserve, but I do think the bat plays enough to warrant semi-regular time. Sam Haggerty, 2B/OF 2020: .260/.315/.400, HR, 7.4% BB, 29.6% K, 100 wRC+, 0.4 fWAR Haggerty is average at second base and may be able to fake it at shortstop in short stints, but his work in the outfield is promising enough to suggest he can serve as a true utility defender. There are things to like about the potential at the plate, but he gets out front a lot and swings and misses too much for a player without power. Still, the versatility and plus speed give him an inside track to making the club. Jose Marmolejos, 1B/OF 2020: .206/.261/.411, 6 HR, 6.1% BB, 27.8% K, 83 wRC+, -0.3 fWAR The 28-year-old isn’t a true outfielder, so despite above-average raw power he’s essentially a backup first baseman who struggled to hit for average in his first taste of the majors. I’m projecting Marmlejos to make the club, as of February 15, because as a bench option there is offensive potential, and because he’s out of options while some of the other competitors are not. If it were me, I’d DFA Marmolejos and start the season with two of the next four players below. Braden Bishop, OF 2020: .167/.242/.233, 5.9% BB, 29.4% K, 37 wRC+, 0.0 fWAR Bishop is a 65 runner with a 70 glove in center. While one look at his big-league numbers from the past two seasons may appear worrisome, he’s never been given an extended look. It’s always been here and there, optioned, called up, and injuries have played a role. While he doesn’t project to hit a bunch of home runs, there’s enough gap power available and he uses the opposite field adequately. With his defense and baserunning (though he’s not a great base stealer), all Bishop has to do is hit .250 with a league average on-base mark. This season may Bishop’s last chance to earn a role with the Mariners, and it’s plausible the club parts ways with Bishop — and a number of other fringe-roster types — prior to the start of the season. Ideally, at least in my opinion and considering the current roster, Bishop and Fraley start the season as the left-field timeshare until Jarred Kelenic is ready, whether that be April, May or June (bet on sooner than later). Depth Donovan Walton, 2B/SS 2020: .154/.214/.231, 7.1% BB, 35.7% K, 25 wRC+, -0.1 fWAR Walton can handle shortstop in a pinch and projects as average or better at second base. He’s an above-average runner with enough athleticism to suggest he could make a transition to the outfield in order to increase his value. Offensively he’s limited. There’s no discernable power, and his ability to hit line drives is below average. Walton has thrived off a high-contact, ground-ball attack. He has, however, always worked counts and reached base. Walton should start the season as Tacoma’s starting shortstop. Jake Fraley, OF 2020: .154/.241/.269, 6.9% BB, 37.9% K, 45 wRC+, -0.1 fWAR Fraley, like Bishop, has struggled in massively sporadic opportunities, despite production in Triple-A. Fraley isn’t the defender Bishop is, but he has more power to offer and a better overall outlook at the plate. He’ll need to make more contact, but it’s petty to harp on performance without a larger sample. While I think he and Bishop should team up as the left-field combo to start the season — barring a veteran addition to the roster — Fraley may end up starting in center for Tacoma whenever the MiLB season gets under way this spring. Taylor Trammell, OF Trammell did not play in the big leagues last season, but starts 2021 as a top-10 prospect in one of the top 10 farm systems in baseball. He’s a hit, run and defend player, but there’s untapped power potential, and he may be ready for the show sometime this season. I’ll have comps and tools grades for Trammell, and 39 other prospects later in February. Cal Raleigh, C Raleigh, a top-10 prospect, may debut in 2021, but he’s starting the season in the minors as Tacoma’s No. 1 catcher. There’s above-average power to offset a below-average but playable hit tool, and he makes up for a lack of prototypical athleticism with smarts, framing and throwing accuracy. The arm is at least average in strength. He’s a better left-handed hitter but he’s had enough success from the right side to maintain an advantage and continue switch hitting, though there’s also more power from the left side. Except to see Raleigh at some point in 2021, but likely later in the season, perhaps merely a September call-up. The new roster rules, however, increase the chances Raleigh is summoned prior to the mandatory 28-man rosters the final month of the regular season. Sam Travis, 1B/OF Travis offers a chance to hit for average with average power, but at 27 he’s depth at first base, and might be Tacoma’s starter if he remains with the org throughout spring training. Brian O’Keefe, C O’Keefe, 27, is back with Seattle for Year 2 after spending six years in the Cardinals system. O’Keefe leaves a lot to be desired defensively, though there’s been progress the past two years. He offers 60 raw power, but a 35-grade hit tool has held him back. O’Keefe may be the frontrunner to start 2021 as Raleigh’s catching mate in Tacoma, though he does have competition. Jarred Kelenic, OF Kelenic has played 21 games above Advanced-A ball yet we’re certain to see him at T-Mobile in 2021. He won’t turn 22 until July, so he likely debuts at 21, and brings a little bit of everything to the table as a player. He can defend — he’s more than playable in center, though as he’s filled out he’s lost some first-step explosion — he can throw, he carries above-average speed into the season, and the hit and power tools are well above average. There’s great potential for the weirdest scenario to develop for Kelenic and the Mariners. Let’s say Seattle leaves Peoria with a plan to call up Kelenic once the service time threshold passes just over two weeks into the season. That would make it roughly the middle of April. The MiLB season isn’t likely to start until May at the earliest with current plans to limit the number of players at the complexes to the ‘big league’ camps. Kelenic could, in theory, stay back in Peoria for a little over two weeks, then join the Mariners somewhat cold, not having real games to play in the meantime. He’d essentially have an extended spring training. Either way, the club’s top prospect will be seen at The Mobi pretty early in the season. Carter Bins, C Bins is a defensive-minded backstop, but has bat speed and good strike zone judgment, suggesting there’s power to be found. He carries a backup profile into the season, and likely starts 2021 in Everett, oddly, where he’s played every game of his career thus far. Julio Rodriguez, OF He comes with star-level upside led by 65 raw power, but he’s a decent athlete and should be able to hold down right field where he has a 65 or 70-grade arm and likes to prove it. In many defensive regards, he’s very Jay Buhner-like. He has a lot of work to do, however, and represents one of the more intriguing player development decisions of the spring for the Mariners: Where does Rodriguez begin his 2021 season? He just turned 20 in late December, has just 97 games of professional experience and has just 84 games above rookie ball — 17 of those finished out the 2019 season in Advanced-A. He was hurt for much of last summer and his only real development time has come this winter, and without good results. The smart route is Double-A Arkansas to start, with an open mind as to how quickly he can move to Triple-A. The goal here should be to expose to him to the best pitching possible while giving him a real chance to have some success in the meantime. Let him make an adjustment or two, put it into play with good results for at least a few months, then move up a level. Dillon Thomas, OF Thomas, 28, was a fourth-round pick in 2011 by the Rockies and reached as high as Triple-A. He spent all of 2019 in Double-A with the Brewers. He’s a big swinger with above-average raw power. There’s been far too much swing and miss in his game, but he runs well and is a solid defender in the outfield corners. Jantzen Witte, 1B/3B Witte, 31, spent seven seasons in the Boston Red Sox organization and comes to Seattle as corner-infield depth. He has a shot to stick as an option in Triple-A Tacoma. Witte has never hit for power, however, so this signing and invite remain as puzzling as it was when the ink was damp. Josh Morgan, C Morgan just turned 25 and is a converted infielder, having just started to catch in 2018 (319 innings that year, nine in 2019). As a bat he has patience and discipline, but no real power, but his athleticism suggests a chance to catch. He’s been adding strength and good weight to his frame. Jordan Cowan, 2B Cowan, a product of Kentlake High School, doesn’t wow you in any manner, but after seven years has a career .270 average in the minors and is capable at second, short and third. Jose Godoy, C Godoy has shown big-league defensive abilities, including an above-average throwing arm. The swing needs a lot of work abut he offers legit bat speed, and bats left-handed, sometime a slight advantage for catchers when all else is equal. Godoy has a good chance to beat out O’Keefe for a spot on Tacoma’s roster to work with Raleigh. Eric Filia, OF Filia has hit for average at every level, but has failed three drug tests and served two suspensions. He also was suspended at UCLA for plagiarism. So, despite the hit tool, there are some off-the-field concerns. But personally, my concerns in regards to the failed drug tests are about Filia the person, not Filia the baseball player. They were drugs of abuse, not PEDs. On the field, I also have issues with Filia’s prospects. Yes, he’s hit everywhere, carrying a career .320 average and .412 OBP in the minors into spring training. But he’s also always been old for the level at every stop but one, and offers little to zero defensive value. He was 23 when he batted .362/.450/.496 in short-season ball in 2016. He was more than a year older than the average player the following season in Modesto when he hit .326/.407/.434. That trend continue until 2019 when he was exactly the average age of his peers in the PCL. Without power or defensive value, it’s difficult to project Filia as more than an up-and-down, part-time player. He’s now 27 and running out of time. Luis Liberato, OF There was a time Liberato was merely a good athlete that lacked instincts in all facets. While he doesn’t project to hit enough for the majors, he does offer plus speed and above-average defense in center. He also throws well, and with accuracy. Liberato isn’t much of a prospect anymore at 25 and having not hit above Class-A Modesto.Go!

Unless regular-scheduled programming is preempted by an agreement between the owners and the MLBPA, the Seattle Mariners, and 29 other clubs, are due to report for spring training in the next several days. This suggests at least a near-complete list of report-date rosters, so let’s go through this group by group. Projected Starting Rotation With the Mariners sticking with a six-man rotation, much to the apparent chagrin of one Marco Gonzales, bless his heart (I agree with him), it looks like their six are already in camp — barring a last-second free-agent addition or trade that ultimately upgrades the unit, which isn’t a far-fetched possibility. Marco Gonzales SNK: 87-90 (45.3%) CUT: 84-86 (24.3%) CB: 74-77 (16.1%) CH: 80-82 (14.4%) One of the more underappreciated players in baseball, Gonzales is coming off 3.5, 3.7 and 2.0 fWAR season, the latter in just 11 starts. It’s plus-plus control, plus command and two above-average pitches, including a cutter that allows him to pitch effectively on the edges versus right-handed batters. His changeup is typically at least average and has flashed plus, but he didn’t even have it for most of 2020. It’s a unique skill set in 2021, but Gonzales induces weak contact by punching the entire strike zone with his variety of stuff, despite the lack of velocity. His sinker doesn’t induce ground balls (8.5% of balls in play in 2020) and he doesn’t generate a lot of swings and misses (8.4%) with anything. Gonzales is the left-handed Kyle Hendricks, and it’s about time folks start realizing it. UPDATE: The Mariners’ signing of Paxton changes the rotation projection. James Paxton (2019) 4FB: 93-97 (53.7%) 2FB: 93-96 (6.2%) CUT: 84-87 (20.2%) CB: 80-83 (18.6%) CH: 84-87 (1.2%) Paxton made just five starts in 2020 but was up to 94 in a workout in late December in front of several clubs. When hes right, he’ll live at 95-plus and dominate with a plus knuckle curveball and keep-honest cutter-slider. At times the cutter is plus, too, and he’s flashed a useful changeup. Seattle gave him $8.5 million guaranteed, so we can assume they believe he’s healthy and will start the season as one of their six rotations arms. Yusei Kikuchi 4FB: 93-97 (37.5%) CUT: 91-94 (39.9%) SL: 82-85 (16.0%) CH: 85-88 (6.3%) Kikuchi took a step forward in 2020, posting a 3.30 FIP in nine starts. While his control took a few step backs (10.3% walks versus 6.9% in 2019), his strikeout rate went up 50% to 24.2% and he posted a 12.1% swinging strike rate, up nearly four percent from the previous season. He also induced more ground balls by nearly eight percent, perhaps as a result of the increased use of the cutter, which was classified as a slider in 2019. The slider he used in ’20 was a better version, nearly three miles-per-hour slower, and he ditched the mid-70s curveball, which looked pretty but was a hanger waiting to happen. In general, Kikuchi needs to throw more strikes, particularly early un counts to avoid 2-0 and 3-1 counts, and if he could get a bit more from his changeup and slider we could look up at the end of the season and see an average or better 26-28-start season. Justus Sheffield SNK: 91-95 (47.2%) SL: 81-84 (33.5%) CH: 85-88 (18.4%) Seattle has essentially turned Sheffield from a thrower to a pitcher. He’s using a sinker instead of a four-seam fastball and it’s helped the lefty stay off the barrel and continue to generate ground balls. The slider is plus and a legitimate mid-level swing-and-miss offering, and the changeup had its moments and was regularly a part of his attack. The next step for Sheffield is command. He improved his ability to throw strikes with a more consistent, athletic delivery in 2020 versus 2019, but locating his fastball better, particularly versus right-handed batters, sets up the southpaw for a strong mid-rotation role. Chris Flexen 4FB: 91-95 SL: 85-89 CB: 77-80 CH: 82-85 Flexen spent 2020 in the KBO and enters 2021 as a rather large unknown in terms of how his stuff will play versus big-league bats. Flexen is built like a starter and has the delivery for it, bit in his time with the New York Mets (2018-19) he was used in relief and had problems throwing strikes in short stays. His numbers in Korea line up with his minor league performances, though, so it’s not entirely out of line with his abilities, at least in terms of throwing strikes. He used his curveball a lot more last season, which appears to be a big reason why he had success in 21 starts (2.74 FIP, 116.2 IP). Whether it’s a swing-and-miss pitch in the states remains to be seen, but Seattle is committed to giving him a chance to start for the long haul. The good news is, the raw stuff suggests it should at least be fun. Justin Dunn 4FB: 90-93 (53.8%) SL: 82-85 (15.2%) CB: 78-81 (23.8%) CH: 86-88 (6.0%) Dunn battled in 2020, but barely survived innings and starts. He ended the year with a FIP and xFIP over six, a 45% hard-hit rate and 19.2%-15.7% strikeouts-to-walks comparison. Too many walks and hard-hit balls, and not enough strikeouts, especially considering the flyball stuff. The lazy projection here is to banish Dunn to the bullpen, but I’m not sure that’s the answer for the right-hander, who saw his fastball dip a full tick, sometimes two, from mid-season 2019 to late-season 2019 and all of 2020. Velocity isn’t the only issue, however. Neither breaking ball looked better than fringe-average and there’s no semblance of a useful changeup. Not pretending to know what Seattle plans to do with Dunn, but unless there’s significant improvement shown in March he’ll warrant a trip back to the minors. Dunn’s stuff must become more consistently competitive to last in the majors. Rotation Depth Nick Margevicius 4FB: 88-92 (64.1%) SL: 83-86 (15.8%) CB: 69-72 (11.4%) CH: 81-84 (8.7%) Margevicius, who won’t turn 25 until June, and added two mphs to his fastball in 2020, touching 93 and seeing 91-92 just about every time out, starter or reliever. It’s a legit four-pitch mix with average command and above-average strike-throwing, but there’s no sign of an out pitch and the stuff has flyball tendencies. Essentially, Margevicius is a poor-man’s Marco Gonzales, but with some upside considering age and physical projection I like Margevicius as a sleeper if he’s given the chance to start consistently. He may get that chance from the outset in 2021 if Dunn is moved to the bullpen or shipped to Tacoma early. Ljay Newsome 4FB: 90-93 (49.4%) CB: 76-79 (26.7%) CH: 83-86 (23.9%) Newsome held his velo this past summer, which is a good sign it’s here to stay after the right-hander built up his arm strength and arm speed in 2019. The stuff was rather ordinary in 2020, but he focused on a three-pitch attack and pounded the strike zone. He’s shown a cutter in the minors which may be unveiled in 2021 in attempt to compete better versus left-handed hitters, who crushed him in 2020 (.379/.400/.724) in 30 batters faced. We also didn’t see the good changeup much, which impacted his ability to pitch to lefties, too. I don’t see a good chance the stuff ticks up enough for a high-value relief role, but a valuable swing arm or back-end starter remains within his projection. Robert Dugger SNK: 91-93 (10.8%) 4FB: 91-94 (42.9%) SL: 80-84 (26.9%) CB: 75-78 (16.5%) CH: 83-85 (2.8%) Dugger could find himself in a relief role where he may have a better chance to see the majors in 2021 for Seattle, but he’s primarily been a starter with mixed results, both in the minors and in the show. He has 45 big-league innings the past two seasons but ha shad problems missing bats and keeping the ball in the yard, a combo with which pitchers never want to be associated. Dugger is athletic with good arm speed. The curveball is above-average with two plane break and the slider flashes as a weapon. It’s a power arsenal but without the big fastball, though there’s good run to his arm side and he gets some ride up in the zone, too. As a full-time reliever we could see a bigger uptick in velo, so keep an eye on that this spring. Logan Gilbert (NRI) 4FB: 92-96 CB: 75-78 SL: 81-85 CH: 84-87 Gilbert doesn’t have great stuff, but it’s good, and it’s consistent, as is his present 50-grade command. The changeup still lags behind both breaking balls, but there’s a foundation there and it will flash above-average. He’s built like a frontline arm and despite less-than-elite velocity, he will touch 96-97 at times and simply needs to show he can stay out of the middle of the zone, both vertically and horizontally. He’s unlikely to make the club out of spring training, but as long as he’s healthy he’ll see a lot of innings in the majors in 2021. Roenis Elias (NRI) 4FB: 93-96 (50.9%) SNK: 92-96 (4.8%) CB: 76-79 (13.3%) CH: 85-88 (29.1%) Elias opted out last season and split 2019 between the Mariners and the Nationals. He was traded to Washington with RHP Hunter Strickland in exchange for RHP Elvis Alvarado, and lefties Taylor Guilbeau and Aaron Fletcher. His arm should be fresh and his changeup has been more of a weapon for him the past two seasons. Elias is the most likely NRI to make the club. Darren McCaughan (NRI) 4FB: 90-94 CB: 77-81 CH: 84-88 McCaughan’s stuff suggests relief work, as does the delivery. He throws a lot of fastballs and the secondaries need a lot of work from an aesthetic standpoint, but he hides the ball well and the movement on the hard changeup is late and to his arm side. He also throws from a lower arm slot — I’d call it slightly below 3/4 — and might offer a chance at a good sinker-slider combo if the club points him in the direction of relief work. Ian McKinney (NRI) 4FB: 88-93 CB: 75-78 CH: 81-84 McKinney is undersized but repeats his delivery well and owns what might be the best curveball in the organization — including the top prospects and current big-league arms. His fastball sits 89-91 mph, but will touch 93 with life, and plays up thanks to a deceptive delivery. McKinney’s changeup is useful, too, and he’ll live on the outer edge versus right-handed batters with all three pitches. He throws strikes and can locate the breaking ball. His severe reverse splits create some fog in his projection. Either way, the size and stuff suggest swing arm or multi-inning reliever, but there’s pitchability and playable stuff here if deployed strategically, and 2021 could be the year he gets a shot. Keep an eye on McKinney as a bullpen option. Projected Bullpen I’ll go eight deep here, even with a six-man rotation, since the roster will be at 26. We may even see times there are nine relievers, which is too many, but until the league adds a pitcher limit this is the world in which we live. Rafael Montero 4FB: 94-98 (49.5%) SNK: 94-97 (24.2%) SL: 85-88 (7.3%) CH: 88-91 (20.8%) Montero is a fastball-changeup arm, using two heaters in 2020 to mix up the movement and allow him to pitch to more areas of the zone effectively. He was very good versus both lefties and righties in 2020, though RHBs got him for decent pop (.452 SLG). This is where the below-average slider impacts the results and puts more pressure on Montero’s fastball command. He’ll get the first shot to serve as closer, though I sense the Mariners may deploy their bullpen a little differently in 2021 than in years past. If so, Montero will see more time in the 8th inning instead of being saved for the save. Kendall Graveman 4FB: 93-97 (8.5%) 2FB: 93-97 (59.6%) CUT: 89-92 (9.7%) CB: 78-81 (5.5%) CH: 87-90 (16.7%) I still prefer Graveman as a starter, but his injury appears to be the driving force to relief work. In order to make it work, we may see the veteran pare down his arsenal a bit, and could see an increase in four-seamers — or fastballs in general — up in the zone. The curveball is his worst pitch — and his least used — so unless there’s a plan involving improvement with that offering, it may be the first to go. Graveman is difficult to project for lack of experience in a bullpen role, but as a starter he’s been hit pretty hard, hasn’t missed bats, and his ground ball rate was down to 48.1% last season. I think of Graveman as the Wild Card for the Mariners; if his stuff ticks up and he’s able to find more whiffs, he could be Montero’s main setup man. Otherwise, and most likely, he’ll fit a multi-inning middle role who shouldn’t be asked to dig the club out of tough situations. Keynan Middleton 4FB: 95-99 (59.0%) SL: 86-89 (22.4%) CH: 87-90 (18.6% Middleton’s intrigue starts with the fastball, which is occasionally into triple digits with elite spin rates, suggesting there may be room to miss more bats with it. He does a good job avoiding the barrel and both secondaries produce swings and misses. He hasn’t remained health since 2017 thanks to Tommy John surgery and at least one significant setback in his recovery, but the velo was back in 2020. Control has held back the right-hander, too, starting with a career 10% walk rate. Anthony Misiewicz 4FB: 92-96 (24.4%) CUT: 89-91 (52.4%) CB: 81-84 (23.2%) Misiewicz has good enough stuff to turn into a Swiss Army Knife option out of the bullpen, covering multiple innings and dominating left-handed batters (.216/.256/.243 in 2020). He struggled versus right-handed hitters, however, enough to suggest he’ll need to be better to warrant such a role, or even more than a bridge in the middle of the game. Only five relievers in MLB used their cutters more than Misiewicz, but that’s certainly not a bad thing, in and of itself. Perhaps more curveballs — his best swing-and-miss pitch — can help, but this may be about fastball command. For now, he remains one of the more reliable arms in the Mariners bullpen, and carries some upside into the season — his first full year in the big leagues. Casey Sadler 2FB: 92-95 (35.3%) CUT: 88-90 (23.0%) CB: 79-82 (37.1%) Sadler flashed a bit the past two seasons split between four clubs, but saw a spike in swinging strike percentage to 12.9 in 19.1 innings a year ago and that rate held steady in seven appearances with the Mariners in September. The curveball is the out pitch, posting 44.4% whiff rate and 28% put-away rate in 2020. He’s out of options, so if it’s a close race for one of the spots, Sadler may win out as a result, but he might just be a solid middle reliever if he can get enough from his fastball and cutter to get the the curveball with two strikes. Yohan Ramirez 4FB: 94-97 (59.8%) SL: 81-84 (40.2%) Unlike a year ago the Mariners can option Ramirez to Triple-A for more work and there’s certainly a chance they do that from the get-go in 2021. The next veteran reliever signing to guaranteed dollars may very well suggest that’s the plan, if the club isn’t there already. Ramirez is athletic with a loose arm and he’s up to 98 mph with the fastball. There’s life on the pitch and enough of it to avoid the barrel, setting up a slider that carries plus upside (43% whiff, 27% put-away). Even fringe-average strike throwing likely turns Ramirez into a setup type, but he walked 21.3% of the batters he faced in 2020. Will Vest 4FB: 93-98 SL: 85-88 CH: 83-86 As a starter in the Florida State League back in 2018, Vest was 92-94 mph with a two-seamer, backed by a power slider at 84-86 and developing changeup, Since then, in relief and employing a more aggressive approach and delivery, the velocity has ticked up (mostly 94-96, but some 97-98, reportedly), the slider has more shape, and the changeup is more consistent with better velocity differential off the fastball. He’s athletic, and the delivery has become repeatable, suggesting there’s stuff and command growth to follow, which, in turn, suggests Vest has a good chance to not only stay up all season as a Rule 5 pick but help the Mariners bullpen and project well for the future. One scout told me if the slider keeps going in the direction it is, it’s plus, and Vest is a legitimate three-pitch option. Erik Swanson 4FB: 94-97 (74.5%) SL: 87-89 (17.4%) CH: 81-84 (6.7%) Swanson is a bubble arm to start the spring and has options left, but he flashed at 99 mph last summer to prove the arm strength is there for a successful transition. But he’ll need more than velocity to get there; the slider is well below average, the control is fine but the command is not and we’ve yet to see him string together consistent outings. I’m curious about the development of the changeup, which, even if not a plus offering, could help relieve the stress on everything else, but first and foremost on the lost of things to do has to be getting that slider up to par. Bullpen Depth Brandon Brennan SNK: 92-95 (31.8%) CH: 82-85 (38.5%) SL: 85-88 (37.6%) A healthy Brennan is a favorite to make the club, so he’s only down in here because, well, he missed most of 2020 part of 2019 with injuries. But he also has has issues throwing strikes consistently, rolling out a 12.2% walk rate in 44 games back in 2019, the last available qualifying sample. When he’s right, Brennan is consistently 92-94 mph with armside run and sink and a plus changeup that flashes plus-plus. Both pitches induce ground balls at a high rate. Brady Lail (NRI) SNK: 89-92 (20.0%) CUT: 84-87 (15.3%) CB: 78-81 (19.3%) CH: 85-87 (15.0%) Lail reminds me some of Nick Vincent, sans the high-zone four-seam fastball value that essentially made Vincent what he was. Lail’s mix is fringey, but the curveball, changeup, and sinker are average pitches. Considering the ordinary stuff, Lail’s control and command need to be better. He’s walked 10% of the batters he’s faced as a major leaguer, and with no swing-and-miss pitch it’s all about weak contact. Joey Gerber 4FB: 92-95 (27.5%) SNK: 92-95 (37.8%) SL: 83-86 (34.8%) Gerber’s stuff didn’t show well in the big leagues last season; I’ve seen him 93-97 with more arm side run and a better slider. If he’s going to make the club and eventually stay in the majors he’ll need the slider to pitch away from right-handed batters and induce whiffs. Gerber’s 9.7% strikeout rate screams the need for adjustments, but he did keep the ball in the yard, as he has in the minors, and there’s likely more of which to take advantage with his deceptive delivery, so I still think he’s a quality arm, he just happens to be one without high probability to start 2021 hot — or in the bigs. Domingo Tapia 4FB: 96-101 (38.8%) SNK: 97-101 (37.5%) SL: 85-88 (18.8%) Tapia, who also has a nearly-never used low-90s changeup, is all arm strength at this point. He does get some swings and misses from the heater, though, so it’s a great place to start. Problem is, he’s 29 and the slider as been stagnant for years, so it appears it will take a brand new idea to get a second pitch into the holster. Aaron Fletcher SNK: 92-95 (65.3%) SL: 80-83 (21.5%) CH: 79-82 (13.2%) Fletcher’s stuff outweighs his present ability to execute it effectively. In the minors, the lefty pounded the strike zone with his fastball and swept the slider for some whiffs and called strikes. There’s deception in the delivery but he needs to repeat to become a factor and ultimately use the secondaries more often. The bullpen may be comprised of a starter such as Newsome or Dugger if they don’t make the club as a starter, and Andres Munoz is expected to be back over the summer; Munoz was acquired from the San Diego Padres in the trade that sent Austin Nola to the NL West. Sam Delaplane Delaplane is a reliever-only fastball-curveball arm likely built for short outings. The four-seamer is up to 95 mph and the curveball is a tight spinner with downward break, potentially a swing-and-miss pitch. Wyatt Mills Mills is a sidearmer with a sinker-slider combo. He’s up to 97 mph and comfortably 92-94 with natural sink and run. Juan Then Then is still on track to see the rotation in Modesto, but could move quickly in a relief role. He was up to 99 mph in the fall and his slider has sharpened since the trade from the Yankees. Gerson Bautista (NRI) Coming off injury, Bautista is looking to get his velocity back, but also show vast improvement to his control. The slider is average or better and he misses bats with a 94-99 mph fastballs. JT Chargois (NRI) The sinker-slider righty is up to 98 mph and whiffed 31.8% of the batters he faced in 21.1 innings with the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2019. If he’s healthy and throws strikes in March, he’s making the club. Nick Duron (NRI) The 25-year-old is a loose-armed right-hander up to 96 mph in relief. He has a low-to-mid-80s sider and a 40-grade changeup he doesn’t use much out of the bullpen. More likely to serve as depth in Triple-A. Moises Gomez (NRI) Gomez, 24, came over from the Twins organization. He’s 95-99 mph with an average slider, and has always missed bats. He’s a pure reliever likely set to start the season in the upper minors, but if he finds a way to throw more strikes he could find his way to the majors by year’s end. Taylor Guerrieri (NRI) Sinker up to 96 mph, curveball, and changeup, but the right-hander has battled injuries on his path to the big leagues. Spent 2020 with the Texas Rangers (5.38 FIP, 22% K, 18% BB), putting up good ground ball numbers. Matt Magill (NRI) At times, Magill was the Mariners best reliever in 2019, especially the second half of the season once GM Jerry Dipoto had traded away the seasoned veterans in July. Fastball up to 96, above-average curveball, average cutter. If healthy, good shot to make the club. Vinny Nittoli (NRI) Nittoli is now 30 and has yet to make his big-league debut, but he’s up to 95 mph and pitches well up in the zone thanks to some run and ride. The slider is at least average and breaks late, and the curveball flashes, too. Paul Sewald (NRI) The four-year veteran is 91-94 with a slider and changeup. He was serviceable 2017-2019, but struggled in five outings last season. Drew Steckenrider (NRI) The 30-year-old didn’t pitch in 2020, but lives in the mid-90s with a power curveball. He needs to find the zone more consistently, but the raw stuff is there. Jimmy Yacabonis (NRI) The right-hander is up to 95 with a two-seamer to set up a projectable slider and fringe-average changeup. Penn Murfee Murfee’s neither on the 40-man roster nor on the non-roster invitee list, but I think he should be. He doesn’t throw hard, but is another sidearmer with command and a good slider. In relief the fastball may tick up a bit.Go!

I’m sensing four things buzzing around the ‘sphere that is Seattle Mariners fandom. One, that the Mariners’ rebuild is very close to complete. Two, that the club’s efforts will go off without a hitch. Three, that successful rebuilds means a World Series, and otherwise it’s a failure. And four, that if the rebuild isn’t successful that it was a mistake in the first place. None of the above are true. Let’s chat. What Makes for a Successful Rebuild? Most in the industry would agree a successful rebuild can mean different things. Of course, a World Series appearance, win or lose, will certainly bear the aesthetics of a successful rebuilding project. For Seattle, it’s about opening an extended window of opportunity, and that opportunity should result in several playoff-caliber teams and at least one legitimate chance at a World Series — hopefully two or more — over the course of 5-plus seasons. Anything short of that and it would be fair to suggest the rebuild didn’t work. One can argue, however, a rebuild is successful if it simply improves the long-term health of the organization and paves the way for better times, or as one front-office exec said this winter, “are they better off, ultimately and for the long haul, for having gone through that process? If so, that’s healthy progress, and good process. That’s the floor, and a lot better than spending a $160 million, $170 million, for what amounts to a mediocrity … on the upside.” But there’s some gray area between success and failure. It’s really not plausible to believe the Mariners’ “reimagining” can end in failure, considering the foundation has unequivocally been set up for long-term success. But a true success? While this neutral patch includes a lot of subjectivity, it’s difficult to see tossing the ‘success’ label on it if there aren’t playoff appearances … plural.  So, What if There Aren’t Multiple Postseason Berths? Whether or not the club’s rebuild ends in the kind of success that includes several playoff appearances, it was the right move for the Mariners after the 2018 season. The roster and payroll situation was on the fast-track to nowhere, and GM Jerry Dipoto took full advantage of the assets he had before they lost value by way of service time and/or performance. And at the very least, Dipoto has put together strong scouting and player development department, and replenished the farm system into near-elite status. What that does is reduce the risk of the rebuild itself — the exact opposite of running out pricey, aging veterans year after year and hoping for the best, which is what the club did the five season prior to Dipoto’s arrival, and to a lesser extent the first three of his tenure. But the Mariners didn’t just start a rebuild after the 2018 season, they changed their DNA, which may be the most underappreciated aspect of the entire process, and one that pretty much is never discussed by, well, anyone. Even once the club is no longer in what is often referred to as ‘rebuild mode,’ among other terms, they’re not going to conduct business in the same manner as before. We saw some of this in action prior to  the 2018-19 offseason, but it’s clear Dipoto is capable of — and prefers — eating clean, so to speak. A safer, more organic manner in which to acquire high-end talent, and now with some evidence rearing it’s gorgeous face in the majors that it’s working. The way Dipoto has gone about things the past two years isn’t going to change. Sure, at some point soon — starting now, really, at least on some level — the club will start acquiring more proven talents rather than focusing on long-term impact and control years, but operational strategies will remain. The ‘what’ will be different, the ‘how’ will not, and that’s perhaps the most meaningful difference between Dipoto’s Mariners and the regimes that came before over the last 15-plus seasons. The yet-to-be-asked-or-addressed question now is “how long without ‘success’ markers, i.e. a few postseason berths, before the rebuilding efforts can be deemed unsuccessful?” When asked, a handful of assistant GMs and other front office types varied in response. “I think it depends on the expectations,” a Mariners rival exec said. “If you’re the Cubs right now, you’re not going to accept three or four losing seasons in a row, not in that market. So once all the revenues return, the clock starts ticking. With those resources, Jed (Hoyer) won’t get five years without winning some. It’s a different kind of rebuild — it’s more of a retool, and success means fighting in the heavyweight class. If you’re the Pirates, Ben Cherington is going to get time, he deserves time, and his job will be safe, and should be, if he gets them back to October at all.” A former GM agrees about expectations, but more specific to Seattle’s situation said “we should stop talking about (mid-market teams and small-market teams) like they shouldn’t have the same expectations, at least internally, and they all should act like it, so it’s apparent to the rest of baseball and the fans. But if you told me in five years Seattle (has home-field advantage in) a few playoff series, or better? That’s a success. Look at where they were, and you can build on whatever the results of their current efforts are, too.” Fans are always going to have their own standards, and the club’s own hopes certainly play a role, but I’ll stick with my ‘it’s already a non-failure’ tag until testing is complete and calls for more final grades. Is the Rebuild Almost Complete? Will it go off Without a Hitch? No, it’s not almost complete, and no it will not go smoothly. When the club set out on their path to rebuild pretty much from scratch, it had the look of a 5-year process. They’ve moved along a little faster than did the Houston Astros, who lost 416 games the first four seasons of their tear-down last decade and didn’t win more than 86 games until Year 7 when they started a three-year run of 101 or more victories. They got back to respectability for two years prior to that run, winning 86 and 84 games respectively in Years 5 and 6., and the Mariners’ pace appears set to get to this point by Year 3 or 4. But the resulting high-point of the process may not hit a the same level, and it may take just as long as it took Houston to get there. On the fast track, the Mariners’ ‘rebuild’ won’t be complete for at least two years, and there’s a decent chance it takes even longer. The hope, and it’s a reasonable one at that, is the club can win some during the latter years of the rebuilding stages, which may consist of 2022 and 2023, if not 2021 as well. And here’s where the “will not go smoothly” comes into play. A hurtful chunk of the young talent the club has acquired over the last two-plus years will either take longer than is ideal to develop into the impact players the club needs them to be, or they’ll fail to reach such levels altogether, which in turn can, and likely will, prolong the club’s efforts to turn into a contending club. In a perfect world, Kyle Lewis takes a full step forward and looks like a star, Jarred Kelenic and Logan Gilbert hit the majors in 2021 and prove their worth, show flashes of impact performances and by the end of the 2022 season look like all-stars in their own right, while the next wave, Cal Raleigh, George Kirby, Emerson Hancock, Julio Rodriguez, start their own process toward similar outcomes. But that’s not the way it works. Prospects fail, they struggle, sometimes even the best talents take years to develop, and sometimes they just don’t turn out to be the core pieces clubs hope they will be. This is yet another reason why a club in Seattle’s current position, has no business moving potential high-impact talent — the Mariners need to throw as many darts at the board as they possibly can to land on a core they can build upon through such impact trades and/or free agent signings in order to get to where they want to be. Thus far, Dipoto has gathered quite the assortment of arrows in his quiver, and if one breaks there’s another behind it ready to be fired at the target. But there will be misses. Take the Astros, who reached the ultimate pinnacle, winning a World Series and getting to two as a result of the rebuilding process they began after the 2010 season. In 2015 they were hoping Jonathan Singleton would break through. They even gave him the Evan White contract two years prior. Singleton struggled so mightily he was DFA’d in November, 2016. Houston was also high on catcher Hank Conger, who didn’t pan out, 1B A.J. Reed, and catcher Jason Castro, who was good enough to stick for awhile but never became what they hoped he would. The same can be said for OF Preston Tucker, and 1B Tyler White. Add right-handers Jordan Lyles and Jared Cosart, 3B Matt Dominguez, and CF Jake Marisnick to the mix. At some level, and at some point between 2012 and 2016 when the club broke through, all of those players failed to reach the kind of impact status the Astros hoped. So rather than busting through in 2013, 2014 or 2015, it took until 2016 — Year 7 of the rebuild — for the Astros to do some damage. We can go through every legitimate rebuild of the last 20 years and come to the same results, and find even more glaring examples, but the Astros’ rebuild was highly successful, and was more recent than others, so it serves as perhaps the best precedent available for this conversation. So, since there will be misses along the way as Seattle moves toward competitive rosters and mostly organically, the path from bad to mediocre, mediocre to to good, and good to great, will be anything but a smooth ride. Now, if you asked me, right now, if I think Seattle wins 90 or more games before what would be Year 7 since the rebuild began — 2025 — I’d say yes, and I’d put my money where my mouth is. But keep your seatbelts fastened, because it’s unlikely to be right around corner, and it’s absolutely not going to come without potholes.Go!

As the Seattle Mariners build their 2021 roster it’s important to keep in mind not every piece is going to fit neatly like a jigsaw puzzle, and that everything is fluid. Along the way it can be helpful to take a snapshot of how things look, so let’s do that right here and now. Earlier this week, GM Jerry Dipoto and the Mariners signed right-hander Chris Flexen to a two-year. $4.75 million deal with an option for a third season. Thursday, the club selected two players in the Rule 5 Draft, including right-hander Will Vest in the big-league portion. As a result, the depth chart looks a little different than it did last weekend. Below is a depth chart of sorts, including all 40-man options in each position group, plus any relevant prospects that may see time next season. Starting Rotation Marco Gonzales Yusei Kikuchi Justus Sheffield Justin Dunn Chris Flexen Nick Margevicius Ljay Newsome Robert Dugger Logan Gilbert Ian McKinney Alejandro Requena Margevicius, Newsome, Dugger and McKinney could see time in a relief role, as could Dunn if the club deems it time to pull the plug on him as a starter sometime between now and the end of the 2021 season. Requena, 24, was just signed and finished 2019 in Double-A. If Seattle wants to win 80-85 games in 2021, they’ll need a proven veteran in the middle of the rotation or it’s going to get ugly no matter what they’re able to do in the bullpen. Jake Odorizzi, Jose Quintana, Rick Porcello, Matt Shoemaker, Michael Wacha, Taijuan Walker, and Anthony DeSclafani are among the free agent options. Bullpen Kendall Graveman Anthony Misiewicz Casey Sadler Brandon Brennan Erik Swanson Aaron Fletcher Joey Gerber Wyatt Mills Sam Delaplane Will Vest Yohan Ramirez Domingo Tapia Penn Murfee Andres Munoz Raymond Kerr Logan Rinehart Jack Anderson Darren McCaughan Gerson Bautista Drew Steckenrider Brady Lail Matt Magill Moises Gomez Cody Anderson Nick Duron Vinny Nittoli Matt Festa Murfee and McCaughan have been starters in the minors but project as relievers in the big leagues. Gomez was signed last month, is up to 98 mph and has a slider that flashes average but is very inconsistent. Steckenrider was league average with the Marlins in 2017 and 2018 before struggling in 2019. He lives in the mid-90s, touching 98 with a power curveball. He had a triceps injury in 2020 that kept him out all year, but if healthy he has a shot to win a role and help in 2021. Pedro Baez, Alex Colome, Steve Cishek, Archie Bradley, Shane Greene, Greg Holland, Keone Kela, Mark Melancon, David Phelps, Joakim Soria, Justin Wilson, Jake McGee, Brandon Workman, and Kirby Yates are legitimate possibilities to fill middle relief and high-leverage roles. Catchers Tom Murphy Luis Torrens Jose Godoy Brian O’Keefe Cal Raleigh Josh Morgan The Mariners inked Godoy in November to add to the depth at the position. The club also inked Morgan, an infielder with some catching experience, to a minor league deal. While all clubs are always looking for additional catching, the Mariners are in pretty good shape, both in terms of likely production, but in terms of club control and long-term outlook. Infielders Evan White Dylan Moore J.P. Crawford Ty France Shed Long Jr. Sam Haggerty Tim Lopes Jose Marmolejos Kyle Seager Donovan Walton Sam Travis Amador Arias Travis was signed in December, and Arias was a Rule 5 pick in the Triple-A phase. Lopes, Moore, Haggerty, and Marmolejos also played outfield in 2020. Long has limited outfield experience but projects passable there. Seattle could use a multi-position infield veteran that can handle the outfield a bit, too. While Jurickson Profar is probably too rich an idea, Brock Holt and Jonathan Villar may not be. Outfielders Kyle Lewis Mitch Haniger Jake Fraley Phillip Ervin Taylor Trammell Braden Bishop Jarred Kelenic Dom Thompson-Williams Luis Liberato It might be a stretch to think Liberato or even Thompson-Williams could see the majors in 2021, but worst-case scenario for injuries could push the envelope, and both can manage left field defensively and offer baserunning value. Seattle should look for a veteran lefty stick that can play the outfield to pair with Ervin in left field until Kelenic is ready to take over, and to serve as a safety net in case the club contends and Kelenic struggles once he does arrive. Free agent candidates include Robbie Grossman, Nick Markakis, Joc Pederson, Brian Goodwin, and Tyler Naquin.Go!

With the full free agent class now known after non-tender day arrived and departed Wednesday, let’s put together a list of free agents that make sense for the Seattle Mariners. But first, here’s what you won’t see below. You won’t see the names of DJ LeMahieu or Trevor Bauer, for example. Nor will George Springer‘s name show up, or the likes of Marcus Semien or Liam Hendriks. It’s not that the Mariners shouldn’t have some level of interest in those players, but fit, cost, and other resources are critical this offseason to avoid roster conflicts, redundant skill sets, and misdirected roster spots and payroll allotment. Reminder: Not every acquisition GM Jerry Dipoto and the Mariners make this winter need to be via free agency. Trades can, and likely will, remain part of the process. This list is about free agents only, and are listed in no particular order. Starting Pitchers Jake Odorizzi, RHP He missed time with a blister issue this past season but was very good in 2019 and has posted five average or better seasons over the last six full years. He’s as good a fit for a club looking for a mid-rotation level arm as there is. Jose Quintana, LHP The lefty didn’t pitch much in 2020 — 11 innings, one start — but he was solid in 31 starts in 2019 and hasn’t lost much off the heater. Last season was the first year since his rookie campaign Quintana didn’t get to 170 innings. Rick Porcello, RHP After a bad start, Porcello was solid in 2020 making all 12 starts and getting through 59 innings. He’s reliable and while the upside isn’t exciting, stabilizing the rotation is Dipoto’s goal this winter. Jon Lester, LHP The Tacoma native will be 37 in January and is coming off a sub par, 12-start 2020 campaign, but a rested, re-charged version of Lester has a chance to bounce back to 2019 form when he made 31 starts and was a little better than league average. A six-man rotation may be ideal for Lester, who saw his velocity fall under 90 mph and his strikeout rate dip under 16%. Taijuan Walker, RHP Walker was solid for Seattle and Toronto last season, and most of the pre-surgery velocity was back (93.5 mph average fastball). His newish slider, overhand curveball, and splitter all were inconsistent, but flashed as legitimate weapons. It’s a decent bet for Walker to go 150-innngs or more over a full season. He fits a lot of club’s needs. Anthony DeSclafani, RHP The 30-year-old right-hander was above-average four straight seasons until a dip to average in 2019. He was downright bad in 33 2/3 innings this past season and he’s managed 125 innings or more just twice in five full years — he missed all of 2017 with a sprained UCL — but he did toss up 166 2/3 innings over 31 starts in 2019 and his stuff suggests mid-rotation production remains in the arm. Matt Shoemaker, RHP The 34-year-old returned from ACL surgery in 2019 to cover 28 2/3 innings over six starts in 2020. He’s never been a big stuff guy, but he gets the most out of a 91-93 mph fastball and three offspeed pitches, including an above-average splitter, all of which play up thanks to solid-average command. Shoemaker is more a No. 4 or 5 with some durability concerns over a full season, but he’s interesting on a one-year deal nonetheless. Carlos Rodon, LHP Rodon can’t be counted on to pour out 175 innings in 2021, but the former No. 3 overall pick (2014) showed signs in 2020 of regained arm strength, and the changeup flashed. He’ll be two years removed from UCL surgery in May and that’s often when the snap returns in TJ recipients. Michael Wacha, RHP Wacha’s upside at this point might be 140-inning No. 4 starter, but he’s just 29, still touched 96 mph with the four-seamer and is due for a bounce-back with his changeup. Relief Pitchers Archie Bradley, RHP Bradley’s arsenal fared well in 2020, including a plus changeup that produced a 39% whiff rate. He’s 93-96 with the heat, the curveball still is a weapon and it all adds up to middle-innings value. Mark Melancon, RHP Melancon has fought through a few injuries to remain productive and consistent in the late innings. He’ll be 36 in March, has closing experience, and there are few signs he’s fading fast. His cutter-curveball combo is fun, though the cutter was beaten to a pulp in 2019 and 2020, suggesting maybe he should go back to incorporating the four-seamer. Joakim Soria, RHP Soria had a terrific 22-game season in 2020, producing a 2.97 FIP and a WPA that projects out to be his best since 2015. He’s a legit four-pitch reliever with a fastball 91-94 mph, 77-80 mph slider, a slow curveball and occasional firm changeup. He’s 36, but should be good on a one-year deal. Pedro Baez, RHP Baez served in the middle innings for the World Champion Dodgers and had mediocre-at-best season, but he’s been better in years’ past. He’s a three-pitch arm — fastball up to 97 mph, above-average slider, fringe-average changeup. With a rebound in command, Baez is again a valuable middle innings option. Alex Colome, RHP Colome, 32 on New Year’s Eve, had an odd 2020, putting up his second-best WPA and FIP of his career while posting his worst strikeout rate (17.8%). Colome hovers around 95 mph and the cutter remains a plus pitch, suggesting a rebound in the bat-missing department may be in order. Brad Peacock, RHP Peacock is a versatile arm with the ability to spot start and cover multiple innings out of the bullpen. He had arthroscopic shoulder surgery in October, but expects to be ready for spring training. When he’s right, Peacock sits 91-94 mph with a two-seamer, complemented by an above-average slider, average curveball and useful changeup. Justin Wilson, LHP Wilson likely is out of the Mariners’ reach as one of the more consistent left-handed relievers in baseball. He’s 33 now, but coming off another strong year, and sat 94-97 with a solid-average cutter. But if he wants to close, Seattle may be able to offer that and gain a leg up on other suitors. Greg Holland, RHP The 35-year-old sat 92-95, threw 51% sliders and 11% curveballs in 2020 — and it worked. How long he can effectively throw 60% breaking balls and stay off the IL. But if he can, he’s a solid middle reliever with some high-leverage ability. Jeremy Jeffress, RHP Jeffress has had two puzzling seasons. Make that… eight… Jeffress has had eight puzzling seasons. He’s 94-98 with the fastball and at different times his splitter and curveball are plus to plus-plus. His control and command are below-average, however, and the offspeed stuff tends to bounce back and forth and rarely overlaps with the other on the positive end of the spectrum. Still, he’s an interesting piece for Seattle as one of several bounce-back candidates. Keone Kela, RHP Kela’s forearm injury ended his 2020 after just three appearances. Now, if it was really a forearm and not an injury that leads to Tommy John, Kela has value for 2021 and beyond. He’s 95-98 with the fastball and his curveball may be among the elites in the relief world.jeffre Jake McGee, LHP McGee struggled badly for three of his four years in Denver and rebounded with a 1.67 FIP and 41.8% strikeout rate with the Dodgers this past season. He had reverse splits in the shortened season that were even wider than his career, but he had command of a 97-3 fastball-slider ratio. He’s 34, but still throws 95 mph and has earned some guaranteed money. Steve Cishek, RHP Cishek is 34 and two years removed from a decent performance, but he’s still throwing 90-92 with an above-average slider. He uncharacteristically had problems versus right-handed batters in 2020 but was oddly tough on lefties — probably a small-sample anomaly. If used to knife through righty-heavy sections of the opponents lineup, Cishek has a role in the middle innings. Hector Rondon RHP The 32-year-old has struggled the past two seasons, missing fewer bats (18.7%, 23.7%, down from 29%, 29.1%, and 26.8% the previous three, and his control has gone backwards at the same time. The rigth-hander’s velocity remains big at 95 mph or better on the fastball, suggesting maybe his issues are delivery related. Nate Jones, RHP Jones still throws hard — 96.2 mph average two-seam fastball in 2020 and has a useful changeup. But his slider has fallen flat the last three years and if a team can help him get it back they’ll find a very good middle-innings reliever with some high-leverage ability. Kohl Stewart, RHP Stewart was the No. 4 overall pick in 2013 and made his MLB debut in 2018 , posting a 3.92 FIP in 36 2/3 innings. He was knocked around in nine appearances in 2019 and did not appear in a big-league game this past season. When healthy, the right-hander is 91-95 mph with a sinker and offers a slider and curveball. He owns a changeup, but doesn’t throw it enough — it’s well below average — but there could be some upside to Stewart in a full-time relief role. Bats Adam Eaton, OF Eaton is 32 this week and has had a full share of injuries over his nine-year career. He didn’t hit in 41 games last season — .226/.285/.384 — breaking a six-season streak of a .360 or better on-base percentage and .400 or better slugging percentage. He’s average in a corner outfield spot, struggles versus left-handed pitching but even in 2020 he hit righties well. Tyler Naquin, OF Naquin has two average or better seasons at the plate — his 2016 rookie year and 2019 — and is fine in a corner outfield spot. He struggles against left-handers but has a career .281/.329/.454 mark versus right-handed arms. Ben Gamel, OF Gamel has reverse splits over the course of his career — 107 wRC+ versus lefties, 92 versus righties — but has always appeared to be stuck between trying to hit 25 homers and hitting for average. He’s worked himself into at least a fringe-average left fielder. Nomar Mazara, OF Mazara, 26 in April, hasn’t broken through with the bat to the levels many expected — and he was awful in 2020 (.228/.295/.294) — but he’s too young to give up on, especially considering he was passable 2016-2019 batting .263/.320/.423 with three 20-homer campaigns. He’s at least average in right field and there still may be a breakout in the offing. Brian Goodwin, OF At 30, Goodwin can still run and despite struggling overall in 2020, can still be relied upon to post league-average offense if deployed properly. Oh, and he’s a good defender. David Dahl, OF Dahl was a budding star when injuries started to pile up on his resume. He has plus power and hit tools, runs well and profiles as a plus glove in a corner and average in center. Seattle doesn’t have a place for him, necessarily, imagine starting 2021 with a healthy Dahl in left field and hitting the deadline with a surplus that has a career .286/.334/.494 slash line entering the season. Albert Almora Jr. OF Almora is a capable centerfielder, but after putting up two-plus average offensive seasons to start his career, the former No. 6 overall pick (2012) has scuffled with the bat — .236/.271/.381 in 2019, .167/.265/.200 in 28 games in 2020.  There’s little power in his game but he’s just 27 in April and still has solid bat-to-ball skills. Kyle Schwarber, DH/OF Schwarber, 27, isn’t a good defender but he has been surprisingly been playable as long as his bat is working. It didn’t work at all in 2020 (.188/.308/.393), but he did hit 11 homers and boasts a career .230/.336/.480 slash, including two 30-homer seasons. He’s really more of a DH, though Seattle’s best chance to get Ty France in the lineup is that same DH spot. Brock Holt, UT Holt struggled in 37 games in 2020, but has been a very capable bench option, posting a .337 career OBP in parts on 9 seasons. He also handled lefties as well as righties, and can play all five infield positions plus the outfield. Jonathan Villar, UT Villar had an awful 2020 in 52 games split between Miami and Toronto (.232/.301/.292), but owns a .259/.327/.400 career slash and posted a 107 wRC+ in 2019. His batted ball data tells us he struggled mightily putting the fat part of the bat on the ball — as much as any hitter in baseball. But it was just 207 plate appearances. He can handle shortstop, second base, third base, and has dabbled in the outfield. He’s a switch hitter with success from both sides and will be 30 in May. Hanser Alberto, UT Playable at second and third with a touch of outfield experience, clubs could do worse than Alberto as their 25th or 26th man. He doesn’t walk (career 2.6%), but he also doesn’t strike out, has a bit of pop and the last two seasons batted .305 and .283.  He’s a right-handed hitter and may be redundant to Tim Lopes, but he’s also more accomplished at the plate. Robbie Grossman, OF Grossman, a switch hitter, boasts a left-handed bat which fits well into the picture for Seattle in 2020, as a strong-side platoon with Phillip Ervin as the Mariners look to cover time prior to the arrival of Jarred Kelenic in left field. The issue here is getting Grossman interested since the writing is wall he’ll lose PT once the club’s top prospect gets the nod — and that may be very, very early in the 2021 season.Go!

There’s no real point to this — you’ve been warned — but here’s why this now exists: It’s December and most owners are liars. That’s it, that’s the reason. There’s so much time to dig, think, research, because there’s no news to lament, no rumors to kill. Just hours upon hours to scour the org rosters of 30 teams and their affiliates. And that’s what I did, looking for misfit talents, players running out of time in one organization, blocked or drowned prospects, and potentially expendable veterans. There’s one from each of the 29 other teams in Major League Baseball. Some aren’t very exciting. Some are simply sensible and nothing more. But there are a few of intrigue, I’d say. All of them make sense, however. But this isn’t fantasy baseball, we’re not drafting a team from the other 29. This also isn’t about finding a trade package to acquire said player, so don’t ask. Here we go. Arizona Diamondbacks: Stefan Crichton, RHP Crichton has been solid for Arizona the past two seasons with a 93-95 mph sinker and plus curveball. He’s rather ordinary as a middle reliever, but an accomplished one two years shy of arbitration status. Atlanta Braves: Patrick Weigel, RHP The Braves are looking to add incremental wins to their 26- and-40 man rosters, suggesting a minor league reliever is at least in play. He’s 93-97 with a slider that flashes above-average and a useful changeup. He’s on the Braves’ 40-man, but could be more valuable as a trade chip and roster spot. Baltimore Orioles: Anthony Santander, OF Baltimore remains in rebuild mode and might not be out of it for another year or two at least, so a player such as Santander is a possible trade chip. He’s not arbitration eligible until after next season, but could interest clubs this winter as a switch-hitting corner outfielder with average or better power. He’s significantly better as a lefty stick, and Seattle wants one of those — and need another outfield option, preferably one that hits left-handed, so … Boston Red Sox: Chih-Jung Liu, RHP Who knows what the Red Sox are going to do, but my guess is they’re going to spend enough to keep another awful season off the board, and that may also mean a few prospect-driven trade packages sent out to acquire more arms. Liu is 21 and a few years from the majors. He’s a bit undersized at 6-feet and 193 pounds, but he’s up to 96 mph and has a potentially-plus splitter and slider. Chicago Cubs: Duane Underwood Jr., RHP The Cubs may very well hit the rebuild button and if that’s the case anything is possible, including trading Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, and Anthony Rizzo. Underwood is a bit of an under-the-radar relief arm that may be ready to pop, despite ERAs and FIPs that tell a different story. He’s run xFIPS in the mid-3s two years running and is a legit three-pitch reliever who has thrown more strikes since he walked 18.8% of the batters he faced in 2018. Chicago White Sox: Matthew Thompson, RHP Thompson was a second-round pick in 2019 and has all the makings of an athletic mid-rotation arm with some upside. He’s just 20 and a few years away, and the White Sox opened a winning window in 2020 suggesting prospects such as Thompson are in play in exchange for big-league help. Cincinnati Reds: Tyler Mahle, RHP Stuff was finally met with quality performance in 2020 as Mahle posted a 3.88 FIP in 47 2/3 innings of work. He’s 93-96 with the fastball and the improvement of his upper-80s cutter-slider and curveball made a big difference. He’s just 26, is hitting arbitration for the first time this winter and could be a nice trade piece for the Reds as they try to add more focused impact to their postseason efforts. Cleveland Indians: Carlos Carrasco, RHP Carrasco could be part of a retool approach by the club this winter, one that likely includes trading shortstop Francisco Lindor. The right-hander is owed $47 million over the next four years, which is a bargain, despite Carrasco turning 34 early in 2021. Colorado Rockies: Jon Gray, RHP My favorite potential target for Seattle, the 29-year-old Gray has gone backwards since he posted a 3.18 FIP in 2017 over 20 starts. He’s still 93-97 with three useful secondaries led by a plus slider that prior to 2020 was one of the best in baseball. He has one year of control left at a third-year arbitration price, and the Rockies are looking to shave payroll. Detroit Tigers: Daniel Norris, LHP As the Tigers’ young arm push Norris to the bullpen, his value seems to be higher outside of Detroit. But even as a reliever, the lefty has a lot to offer, and he’s a free agent after 2021. Houston Astros: Lance McCullers Jr., RHP The Astros are a mess; Justin Verlander is out most or all of 2021, George Springer and Michael Brantley are free agents, Carlos Correa is a year from the open market, as is defacto ace Zack Greinke, so the future beyond 2021 is bleak on paper. McCullers is also a year from free agency, now deep into pricey arbitration status and might be worth more to the Astros in trade — to fill multiple holes and create a bit more payroll flexibility. Houston should be cutting bait on 2021, but even if they don’t, moving McCullers make sense. Kansas City Royals: Scott Barlow, RHP It looks like the Royals are trying to take a step forward in 2021, but the time to move Barlow is now — he’s been a consistent middle reliever and is now arbitration eligible — and could help KC land help elsewhere. Los Angeles Angels: Jose Soriano, RHP The Angels’ system is bottom third of the league but they’re more concerned about the big-league roster and an arm like Soriano could net the Halos a big-league reliever. Los Angeles Dodgers: Dylan Floro, RHP Floro is hitting arbitration this winter, and while the Dodgers aren’t afraid to spend seven figures on a reliever, Floro also could be a nice additional piece to a larger trade that lands the Dodgers an everyday outfielder or left-side infielder. He’s more of a middle reliever now, but the fastball-changeup combo is plus. Miami Marlins: James Hoyt, RHP Hoyt is 34 but will not be arbitration-eligible until after 2021, so the motivation for Miami to trade him isn’t high. But if the Marlins are looking to take a meaningful step forward with their 26-man roster, Hoyt could be available in a package. He’s always missed bats despite below-average velocity, and could be perceived an undervalued relief arm. Milwaukee Brewers: Corey Ray, OF Ray was the No. 5 pick in the same draft Kyle Lewis went No. 11 to the Mariners. He’s had multiple injuries along the way, and has yet to produce with any consistency. He’s 26 now and on the 40-man, but if the Brewers plan to win in 2021, Ray’s roster spot may not be stable. Minnesota Twins: Nick Gordon, 2B Yep, Dee’s brother. The arm and range fit shortstop fine and eventually he should hit for enough average to reach the majors, but like his older brother brings little power to the table. Nick is an average runner, so he has to get on base a lot to warrant everyday treatment, and he’s fallen out of favor in Minnesota simply due to other talents passing him by. New York Mets: Steven Matz, LHP The Mets are going to spend and trade big, and at least some of that is going to be about the rotation, which needs more probability and fewer hope-and-pray approaches. Matz’s stuff suggests he’s still capable of No. 3 starter production, but lack of availability and command problems have prevented that since 2016. He’s a pricey arbitration case that could be on the block. New York Yankees: Anthony Volpe, 2B/SS Volpe was on the Mariners radar in the 2019 draft, but he didn’t get to the club after Round 1. He’s a few years away from the majors so he’s not the next Yankees shortstop, but could easily be prime trade bait as the Bombers add to their roster moving forward. Oakland Athletics: Jeremy Eierman, SS With Marcus Semien a free agent, the A’s shortstop situation is unclear, but Eierman is down the depth chart a bit after Logan Davidson and Robert Puason. At this point, Eierman is more of a potential utility infielder, but needs work on the hit tool. Similar to Dylan Moore prior to the 2019 season. Philadelphia Phillies: Hector Neris, RHP Philly declined Neris’ option but now have a decision to make via the arbitration process. The right-hander was good in 2020 sans the 4% rise in walk rate but misses bats with 93-96 mph fastball and plus splitter. Pittsburgh Pirates: Chad Kuhl, RHP Kuhl, 28, has better raw stuff than his performance suggests — 92-96 mph sinker with three average or better offspeed pitches — but is well into arbitration now and the Pirates are years away. Just the kind of project the Mariners like. St. Louis Cardinals: Dexter Fowler, LF Fowler hasn’t hit much the last three years, but draws walks and as a left-handed bat is playable. His contract is a bit of an issue (owed $15.5 million for 2021), but such an issue could be mitigated via negotiations, and the deal expires after next season. San Diego Padres: Justin Lange, RHP The Padres are in win-now mode which makes just about any prospect potentially available. Lange has yet to make his pro debut, of course, but the arm strength suggests a high floor and ceiling. San Francisco Giants: Trevor Gott, RHP Gott struggled in 2020 after a strong 2019, and it appears the struggles were very much about his elbow problems. If healthy, he’s potentially an undervalued middle reliever, and one Jerry Dipoto has acquired before. Tampa Bay Rays: Greg Jones, SS With Willy Adames, Wander Franco, and Vidal Brujan ahead of him, Jones isn’t in the Rays’ picture just yet, but he’s the most likely misfit considering Tampa doesn’t typically trade top prospects, and more rarely move pitching prospects. Texas Rangers: Jose Leclerc, RHP Leclerc will miss bats. He’ll also miss the strike zone. He’s signed to a multi-year deal with two club options that could take him through the 2024 season. Toronto Blue Jays: Estiven Machado, SS Machado is down the org depth chart quite a ways in terms of middle infielders, but might be the most likely of the group to stick at shortstop. There’s more hit than power, but the range is above-average to plus, making arm strength the only real concern for a future on the left side. Washington Nationals: Sammy Infante, SS Infante, 19, has all the raw tools to not only stick at shortstop but develop average power and perhaps build a valuable enough package to play regularly. He’s currently third among middle-infield prospects in the Nationals’ system, lined up behind Trea Turner on the org depth chart at shortstop.Go!

The Seattle Mariners, per GM Jerry Dipoto, will be in the market for a few arms this winter, and if his tone can be interpreted at all it seems to send the message that his ballclub is looking at a different kind of free agent than it was a year ago. That should make for a fun offseason. Last winter, the Mariners signs right-handers CJ Edwards, Kendall Graveman, Taijuan Walker and Yoshihisa Hirano, most notably,  Now, don’t expect Seattle to throw out any mega deals, but this year’s list is very likely to be more interesting. It sounds like — and can be backed up by common sense — Dipoto would like to add two or three proven veteran relievers, including one that projects as an option in the ninth inning, and a starter with some probability. What this means is the club isn’t just after projects with some upside, since they’re goal for 2021 is to snag one of 189 playoff spots in the American League. Free agency isn’t the only way to add talent, of course, so included here are some buy-low trade candidates. Why ‘buy-low’? Because it’s not time for Dipoto to trade young talent for major leaguers, at least not in a significant manner. I also believe the club should look to improve the bench with a multi-position player with some proven value at the plate. On the Baseball Things podcast recently, we discussed players like Josh Harrison and Brad Miller, both free agents this offseason. But there are a few buy-low trade candidates that may be sensible bench targets, too. Here are some free agents I think Seattle should consider, at varying degrees. Starting Pitchers Anthony DeSclafani, RHP DeSclafani entered 2020 with a career FIP around four, but scuffled in seven starts and was pushed to the bullpen before eventually being left off the Reds’ postseason roster. He’s throwing as hard as ever (95.2 mph) and has a changeup, slider and curveball that have been average or better. The slider is consistently a plus pitch. DeSclafani failed to miss bats (15.8%, down from 24% a year ago) and his walk rate was up 3% over 2019. While not a frontline arm, the soon-to-be 31-year-old could be a value buy this winter. He’s had some injury issues in the past — he made just 41 starts between 2017 and 2018 — but also has two 31-start seasons and there were no signs of any significant injuries hampering his abilities this past season. On a one-year deal, the right-hander could make a lot of sense for Seattle, and anything around league average over 25-plus starts would be a quality addition. Perhaps the Mariners six-man rotation can help him stay healthy and sharp. Kevin Gausman, RHP Gausman is comong off three average or better seasons, with the most recent being his best yet as a big leaguer. He made 10 starts and posted a 3.09 FIP and 32.2% K rate, showing occasional dominance and the same quality control that has made him interesting his entire career. There’s No. 2 stuff here and the only question is whether or not Gausman can bring it for 25 starts or more. Seattle is a great fit for Gausman, but the Mariners will have competition for his services, and it ultimately may take a multi-year deal to acquire the former first-round pick. He’s 30 in January but has a pretty clean health record and the miles on the arm are more than reasonable. Michael Wacha, RHP Wacha hasn’t been good at all since 2018, posting FIPs over five over his last 37 appearances, all but six in a starting role. But the arm is sound and the combination of command and stuff suggest mid-rotation ability. Wacha’s fastball is firmly in the 93-95 mph range, but he hasn’t drawn much value from the fastball of late, which has him throwing his fringey cutter even more. His best pitch has typically been his changeup, but he didn’t have it in 2020. Wacha was dinged as an amateur for not having a quality breaking ball, and that’s been the case the past two seasons with his cutter and curveball both being firmly below average, and he all but ditched the curveball in 2020. He’s more of a project than Gausman, but there don’t see to be any health risks — beyond the inherent risk of throwing a baseball for a living. Like DeSclafani, a team with the chops Seattle has in terms of finding ways to improve pitch value should be all over Wacha this winter on a one-year deal. Jake Odorizzi, RHP Odorizzi has a finger injury in 2020, but made 28 starts or more from 2014-2019 with the Rays and Twins. The results were mixed, but he’s typically been a good No. 4 starter and was more than that in 2019 when his fastball dazzled thanks to quality command and three other average or better offerings, including a plus slider. The right-hander sits 91-96 mph and carries a career strikeout rate of 25%, despite that dropping to 20% in four outings this past season. He took a one-year qualifying offer for 2020 and after missing time and struggling in a small sample, he may be forced to take another short contract at a reduced price. I’d feel comfortable with Seattle tabbing him their guy as long as the finger injury doesn’t project to bite him next year, too. Despite no guarantees, betting on a healthy Odorizzi being league average or better is a smart one. Mike Minor, LHP Minor has two 200-inning seasons under his belt — 2013 with the Braves and 2019 with the Rangers. He wasn’t as consistent this past season but was solid with the A’s in September and his postseason start was also adequate. The positives of Minor’s 2020 include a 26% strikeout rate and an average exit velocity of 87.5 mph. But he also allowed too many hard-hit balls, which limits his potential value. I’d bet on Minor as a league-average starter in 2020 if the risk was a one-year deal. He’s been as healthy as one can ask a pitcher to be, and if all else fails he has had great success as a 75-inning reliever. I think Seattle is likely to add just one starter with significant guarantee money and I’d be shocked if they hand out a three-year contract or longer — and even mildly surprised if they go two years — but I could see them adding one of Minor, Odorizzi or Gausman, plus a Wacha, Walker or DeSclafani type if they feel like Justin Dunn will end up in the bullpen, anyway. Relief Pitchers Shane Greene, RHP Greene covered 27.2 innings in a 60-game season in 2020 and had his ups and downs, but in a good bullpen is a solid middle reliever. His strikeout rate was down this past season, but the velocity wasn’t and he’s a legitimate four-pitch arm — sinker, cutter, slider, changeup. Greene isn’t going to get closer opportunities this winter, of course, but did save 55 games 2018-19 and could win such a role in Seattle, potentially making the Mariners intriguing for the 32-year-old. Jeremy Jeffress, RHP Jeffress, 33, was terrific in 2018 but has been somewhat ordinary since.  Still, it’s a middle-relief projection with some upside left if he can regain a little of the velocity he’s lost the past two seasons — he’s down two full ticks and averaged 93.8 mph in 2020. He’s a sinker-splitter-curveball reliever and all three were average or better this past season. His control, however, was not as he posted a 13.6% walk rate. A bounceback looks like a 7th or 8th inning arm, a role Seattle doesn’t have filled in the slightest at the moment, and Jeffress could get save chances from the outset. Blake Treinen, RHP Treinen is going to get looks from contenders who are willing to pay him, including the Dodgers, but in a good bullpen the 2020 version isn’t a closer and should be limited in high-leverage situations. Treinen was elite in 2018, struggled in 2019, and while he rebounded in 27 appearances this past season, his strikeout rate was down to 20.6%. He’s using the sinker more and the four-seamer and cutter less, while his slider usage is up to 26%, which is neither good nor bad, but at his best all four were values and his fastball combo was devastating. Treine is 32 and healthy, and a reasonable bet for better results in 2021 since the stuff — outside the fastball being hit harder, despite the same 97 mph heat — is similar. Trevor Rosenthal, RHP I think Rosenthal is a pipe dream for Seattle, since he’s now proven to some extent his bout with severe control problems are behind him. He posted a career-best 41.8% strikeout rate in 2020 and everything else is in line with his best years. Some poor GM is probably going to give him a multi-year deal, but if that doesn’t happen and he wants to be assured the closer role to start the season, Seattle is one of a large handful of possibilities… as are the Angels, for the record. Joakim Soria, RHP Soria, 37 next May, had another strong year, the third in the last four he’s posted a FIP under three. But his xFIP this past season over five, his strikeout rate is down a touch and he had some control issues beyond a high-leverage arm. He’s still very interesting for a club such as Seattle. He averaged 92.8 mph with the fastball in 2020 — 93.0, 92.9, 93.2 the last three years — and made 22 appearances, answering the bell every time upon which he was called. If Soria is one of the arms the Mariners add this winter it’s a good move. Justin Wilson, LHP Wilson had a good 2020 and has always walked more batters than is ideal, but he misses bats — 26.7% this past season, 26.2 for his career — and dominates lefties, including a .115/.207/.231 slash with the Mets. With his splits, Wilson can’t be any club’s relief ace, and the three batter minimum puts pressure on his ability versus RHBs, but if the Mariners can get more strikes out of him against righties he’ll be fine. Greg Holland, RHP Holland is more of an injury risk than most other free agent relievers, but he was very good in 2020, punching out nearly 28% of the batters he faced and posting a career-best 6.7% walk rate. I wouldn’t bet on that kind of control over the course of a full 2021, but the stuff is the best its been since 2014. He’ll be 35 in November and the aforementioned risk is real and relatively high, but the price might be right all things considered. Seattle could be attractive to Holland if the closer’s role is dangled. Dipoto is very creative and for at least one of the relievers he acquires this winter he’s likely to surprise some onlookers. But that surprise may come by way of trade, rather than free agency. A small-to-medium-sized trade that includes a proven, yet young-ish reliever would not shock me at all. Such deals have been Dipoto’s M.O. since he arrived in Seattle five years ago. Buy-Low Trade Targets Seattle’s needs are mostly on the mound, but Dipoto never stops looking ahead, either. Here are four buy-low trade candidates for Seattle to consider this winter. Ryan McMahon, 2B/1B/3B McMahon isn’t your traditional utility player since shortstop is out of the question and he’s merely adequate at second base, but he can help at three positions, including third base, and a lot of his peripherals suggest he’s a better hitter than he’s shown for most of his career. He hits the ball hard — 90.1 mph average exit velocity and 40.3% hard-hit rate in 2020 — and draws enough walks to support his batting averages, but he’s struggled to make enough contact to make it all count. He blasted 24 home runs in 2019, so Colorado is going to hang onto that if clubs approach them this winter, but they have so many needs up and down their organization and they’ve been waiting for McMahon to show consistency for three years. He’s also arbitration eligible this offseason, suggesting a seven-figure salary, and GM Jeff Bridich, assuming he’s back for 2021, will have to make changes. McMahon has a solid chance to upgrade Seattle’s bench in 2021, and despite the fact he can’t play the outfield, the fact Dylan Moore can, and fairly well, covers Seattle in case of mid-game emergency. Adam Frazier, 2B/SS Frazier batted .276, .277, .278 with .344, .342, .336 OBPs from 2017-2019, but in 58 games in 2020 it all fell apart to the tune of a .230/.297/.364 slash. He’s arbitration eligible for the second time and made a pro-rated $2.8 million this past season, suggesting the grossly-rebuilding Pirates could very well be open to a deal. Frazier is a solid-average second baseman, capable at shortstop and has 99 starts in the outfield where he’s posted +8 DRS in four years. Frazier has hitting chops and I’d bet pretty hard on him bouncing back. He’ll be 29 in December, bats left-handed — which adds some needed balance to a pretty right-handed lineup the Mariners will send out there in 2021 (J.P. Crawford and Kyle Seager are the lone lefties in the projected lineup). While Frazier won’t be free, the Pirates aren’t likely to love the idea of paying him $3.5-4 mill, either, suggesting he can be had without costing anything more than expendable talent in return. Maybe a multi-player deal including Bucs right-handed reliever Tyler Bashlor can be negotiated. Bashlor is out of options and has struggled throwing strikes, but that sounds an awful lot like Connor Sadzeck and Austin Adams. Bashlor sits 94-97 mph with an average slider and useful changeup. Jon Gray, RHP You knew I was going to bring up Gray, right? I’ve been talking about Gray for two years because he’s underperformed since 2017 and now is a year from free agency. The Rockies either need to fish or cut bait and they don’t know how to cast a line. Gray’s shoulder injury that ended his season is an obstacle and could derail the idea altogether, but there’s no indication — yet — that the injury is long-term. The former No. 3 overall pick has a big fastball at 93-97, though his average heater dropped from 96.1 to 94.1 in 2020. His slider is plus to plus-plus, but he didn’t have the best of it much this past season, and while his changeup hasn’t been useful since 2018, his curveball has been at least fringe-average, albeit more of an early-count option than an out pitch. His strikeout rate sank to 12.6% this year, but his 23.5%-24.6% the past three years still doesn’t match the raw stuff. Gray needs someone to help him unlock his potential. I’m not saying he’s Gerrit Cole — he doesn’t have that kind of upside… Cole always did (former No. 1 pick, always projected as a potential ace), Gray does have frontline stuff, and he’s always been able to throw strike, generally speaking — 7.6% walk rate over his career. I’d sure like to see what the Mariners could do with a healthy Gray in 2021. Wouldn’t you? And we’re past the point where the cost is too prohibitive. He’s only controlled by Colorado for one more season and via arbitration could net between $6-7 million. This suggests the Rockies could even non-tender the right-hander, and if I were Seattle I’d be at the front of the line looking for medicals and potentially handing Gray a guaranteed contract. Heck, I’d be willing to give him his projected arbitration salary. Miguel Andujar, 3B/1B The Yankees have Gio Urshela now entrenched at third base for the foreseeable future and Andujar struggled in his 65 PAs in 2020.  We saw some potential at the plate in 2018 when the now-25-year-old (26 in March) batted .297/.328/.527 with 27 homers, and his ability to make contact could be a valuable foundation for a fix to his recent struggles. Andujar is not a good third baseman, and the Mariners have first base locked up for the time being, but there’s upside here and all it takes is one injury to Seager, Ty France, Dylan Moore, or Evan White to open up time for a player like Andujar. The squeeze here is the fact the Yankees have an option left on Andujar and he’s not arbitration eligible until after next season (at the soonest), so the Bombers aren’t particularly motivated to move him, generally a tell on cost. I just wonder if the Mariners don’t have an equally-valuable yet dispensable piece in their system the Yankees might believe is more likely to help them than Andujar.Go!