Author: Jason A. Churchill

As astutely and accurately demonstrated here by Luke Arkins, the Seattle Mariners struggled to score runs with any reasonable consistency in 2021, and it led to an inordinate — and ultimately unsustainable — rate of close games the club’s bullpen and ‘clutch’ hitting was asked to win. To continue building the roster’s ability to win games, raise the ceiling and reduce the number of games the club is relying on magic, GM Jerry Dipoto has to do just that to his lineup. Today, let’s take a look at the possibilities, but let me say this before we dive into it all: I think just about anything short of elite contracts — long-term, $200 million-plus deals — is in play, including good free agents and significant trades that cost young talent. Also, there are no untouchables. Not on the 26-man roster, not down on the farm. Having said that, it’s highly, highly unlikely Dipoto ends up moving top prospect Julio Rodriguez, or even right-hander George Kirby, the club’s top pitching prospect in over 15 years. I believe anything else is on the table, even if unlikely to come to fruition. Let’s get started. First off, the club isn’t really set at any one position on the field. It may seems like first base is all taken care of with Ty France and perhaps eventually Evan White, but there’s flexibility there, too. It may seem like the outfield is all set and even soon-to-be crowded, but there are question marks all over the position group, including Mitch Haniger‘s defense, Kyle Lewis‘ bat and ability to stay healthy, as well as the development of Jarred Kelenic, and bench depth. Abraham Toro may be the starting third baseman next season. He may be the starter at second. He also could be a regular in the lineup as an everyday-type multi-position player in the mold of Marwin Gonzalez. Keep that in mind. The club obviously needs more production from the infield, though, and I feel like some fans are looking at Toro’s final 2021 numbers and thinking “we need better than this.” While that’s true, it’s a mistake to assume that’s just what Toro is. He’s barely 25 and this season was his first extended shot at big-league pitching. There are a lot of traits he’s displayed that suggest above-average offensive output is in his future. Just like we all know Kelenic has more to offer than his grossly sub par 2021 triple-slash, the same is true for Toro. The club also is not set at catcher, where Tom Murphy is solid yet unspectacular defensively and struggles to produce with the bat, and Cal Raleigh is just getting his feet wet in the majors. Luis Torrens appears set to be treated more like a bat than a potential oft-option behind the dish, so, this position is not set and settled for 2022. Trading Murphy as a tertiary piece in a trade package and adding a more established veteran, or simply pairing a new-addition veteran with Murphy and allowing Raleigh to start 2022 in Triple-A should absolutely be on the table, and I’ll address that below. One more note: There will be names not mentioned that make sense. Again, just about everything is plausible. The combination of potential offensive acquisitions spans as wide as ever for the Mariners. Free agents, trades, and development will all be part of the club’s improvement at the plate in 2022. We just don’t know exactly how that acquisition pie will be sliced. Here we go: Free Agents There’s going to be chatter about the shortstop market until they all sign, but unless one of them wants to go with a one-year, reestablish deal, Seattle shouldn’t engage much. These are likely to land in the elite range, especially Carlos Correa and Corey Seager. Javier Baez is a fine player, but he and Trevor Story both come with a lot more risk for offensive performance than truly elite players should. I’m not sure anyone else, at this stage if things, can be remotely dismissed as a legitimate target for the Mariners. Kris Bryant, 3BThere’s no reason Bryant shouldn’t be on the initial list for Seattle, though there are a lot of reasons to believe this isn’t a target likely to become reality. First, he’s 30 and isn’t going to want to pass on his only shot to make a bundle, so we’re probably talking about at least five guaranteed years, and possibly 6-8. He can handle third base, but also play a passable left or right field, aiding in a club’s flexibility. But Bryant also has a say. Seattle, inherently, has its deterrents, both geographically and as an organization. Sometimes money talks, but clubs have to pick their spots when they simply offer more than everyone else, and Bryant isn’t that player. In fact, that kind of free agent doesn’t exist this winter at all. Marcus Semien, 2B/3BSemien had a huge 2021 and is going to get paid accordingly. Defensively, there’s no reason to believe he can’t still play an average shortstop and if he finds a club that agrees he’s going to price himself out of a lot of places, including Toronto and Seattle. He’s 31, which is a concern on the back end, so anything beyond four years guaranteed is too much of a value squeeze for me, especially considering Semien is selling high and is not likely to ever repeat his 2021 performance. But the lack of market stability — we really don’t know yet how aggressive the market will be; we don’t know how many clubs are going to be willing to spend significant dollars this winter — suggests a chance Semien’s market remains reasonable. We shall see. Nick Castellanos, OFCastellanos is certain to opt out of his deal with the Cincinnati Reds that would pay him $16 million in 2022. He’ll be 30 before the start of the ’22 season and isn’t a very good glove, but the bat is big and plays in any ballpark. I’d be surprised if he has to settle for fewer than four years and $100 million. Michael Conforto, OFConforto has typically hit when healthy, though 2021 has been uneven for him. He’s not yet 29, is a Redmond High School product, and there is room for outfielders, plural, on the Mariners’ roster. Conforto may see an opportunity to come home on a one-year deal, have big season and head back out on the market for a longer-term contract next winter. This is one of my favorite potential targets. J.D. Martinez, Nelson Cruz, Jorge Soler, DHAll three can hit and the first two have long track records. Adding a pure DH to the roster is a bit messy for Seattle with France and Mitch Haniger possibly warranting time there, depending on the makeup of the rest of the roster. Soler can fake it in right field a bit, however, if that becomes important. A DH like one of these three could still fit as one of the final pieces of the offensive puzzle for 2022. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Dipoto express interest in Cruz or Soler. Kyle Schwarber, OF/1B/DHSchwarber has been a man without a position his entire career, but while he’s below-average in the outfield, he’s not awful, and he’s starting to learn first base this season with Boston. The fit may appear a little murky at this point, but like the DHs above, there are scenarios where it shakes out a Schwarber fit with the Mariners. He’s the kind of bat they really like, so if they get beyond the defensively stuff he’s certainly a hitter to track this offseason. Starling Marte, CFMarte had a very good 2021, but isn’t the free agent some seem to think he is. He’s 33 with declining centerfield defense, and anything more than two years guaranteed feels like an unnecessary risk. But the bat, and the defense, may play well enough to warrant genuine interest on a short-term basis. Personally, I feel like Marte will be overpaid in years and AAV. Chris Taylor, 2BTaylor, now 31, has thrived in the Dodgers’ lineup and plays average or better defense at multiple positions, including left field, second base, and third base, and is playable at shortstop and center field, at least for now. I question how well the bat plays moving forward, and how different he might be pitched if not surrounded by stars, so outside of a similar situation I think Taylor is going to be overrated and overpaid. Having said that, he fits, in theory, because there is hitting ability there, and his defensive versatility is highly valuable. Mark Canha, OFCanha had a down 2021 and isn’t a middle of the order bat, but if he’s the low-hanging fruit to help solidify the roster amidst more significant acquisitions, he could be a very good fit on a one-year deal, perhaps keeping the seat warm for a younger bat. Perhaps the key here is Canha’s ability to play some center field, even though it’s not ideal he’s the everyday answer there. Yan Gomes, Christian Vazquez CGomes is a solid-average defender with some punch in his bat — .252/.301/.421 in 2021 — and at 34 is likely headed for a short-term deal this winter. Vazquez is likely to stay in Boston, but he’s an ideal timeshare backstop likely available on a short-term contract. He’s one year off a 115 wRC+ season and two years removed from a 23-HR campaign. Tommy Pham, OFPham, 34 by the time next season starts, had a strange but still productive 2021, and if used as a fourth outfielder still brings good value on a one-year contract. He’s fringe-average defensively, but has average pop, draws walks, and still runs fairly well. He makes contact at an above-average rate, suggesting a chance to bounce back from hitting .229. If Pham, or someone like him, is replacing Dylan Moore, for example, they’re doing it right.Brad Miller, 1B/3B/OFMiller, another former Mariners draftee on the list, has produced 127, 120 and 105 wRC+ marks the past three seasons, despite ordinary batting averages. He has good power from the left side, draws walks, and plays a passable second base and third base, has experience at first base where he’s at least average, and is passable in short stints in left or right field. Freddy Galvis, UTGalvis is a very good utility infielder with defense that fits at second, short, and third, and there’s a little punch in the bat from both sides of the plate. He’d be an average security blanket for the infield spots, led by defense and his ability to make consistent contact at the plate. Jonathan Villar, UTVillar had borderline starter numbers in 2021, but should not be paid like one. Let me repeat: Villar should not be paid like starting-caliber player. The 30-year-old warrants a one-year, stop-gap contract that also fits into utility range, since ideally your regulars are all better hitters with longer futures in the organization. Villar, however, is very interest for Seattle, who may not find two significant upgrades on the infield and could instead bring in one major infield upgrade plus a one-year insurance policy to Toro’s development, knowing Villar can play a satisfactory second, short, and third, and has shown some promise in occasional stints in the outfield over the years. How his market develops will be very interesting after he posted a 105 wRC+ for the Mets this season. Avisail Garcia, OFOne of the more underrated free agents is Garcia, who at 30 just batted .262/.330/.490 with 29 homers for the Milwaukee Brewers, and plays a very solid right field. If Seattle gets to point where moving Haniger to DH — or to another team — becomes a realistic possibility — Garcia could slide into RF, and then move to DH once Rodriguez is ready to take over for the long haul. I’m curious to see where Garcia’s market lands, too. He’s been solid, but it seems like it’s possible he may not be able to do better than two or three years. AJ Pollock, LF — Los Angeles DodgersPollock may opt out of the final two years and $21 million of his deal with the Dodgers, and if he does, toss him into the free agent pile. In fact, it might surprise many if he doesn’t opt out, considering it comes with a $5 million buyout and the market likely gets him the $16 million difference, and then some. He’s not a center field option except in a pinch, but he’s fine in left, and went 131 and 137 wRC+ the last two seasons. He hits lefties better than righties, but produced in 2021 against both. If he’s 2/3 of a timeshare, Pollock makes tons of sense for a contender that needs outfield help, Seattle included. If he doesn’t opt out, there’s a chance the Dodgers dangle him in trade and with a palatable contract there likely will be a taker or two. As long as he’s not the best bat added to the mix, Pollock could make some sense for Seattle in the big picture. Michael A. Taylor, CFThe Mariners need help in center field to improve the defense and perhaps cover for the unavailability of Kyle Lewis (knee), who either may not be able to play center regularly, at all, or the club may choose to make the ask of Lewis a little less-demanding by using him less in the field at all and giving him some DH time. In any case, Taylor, a terrific defender, makes a lot of sense. His overall numbers at the plate aren’t inspiring — .244/.297/.356, 77 wRC+ — but he’s a part-time player who was overexposed by the Royals. Taylor has hit lefties in his career toa .261/.311/.421 clip, and this past season popped a .295/.344/.424 sash against them (110 wRC+). OTHERS: Andrew McCutchen, OF; Eddie Rosario, OF; Adam Duvall, OF; Kevin Pillar, OF; Manny Pina, C, plus unexpected option declines. Trades Seattle isn’t going to stop making sensible trades, including those that appear aggressive in nature, as they move closer toward consistent contention than they have experienced in two decades. It’s plausible the club makes an assertive prospect-for-big-leaguer move this winter that includes one of the club’s better young talents. The farm system is not only in good shape, but it’s growing in depth at a rapid pace, and I’ll reiterate my belief it hasn’t peaked, which means more high-end talent is on its way. Proven plus-level talent costs big, just ask the Blue Jays, who traded two top 40 prospects for eight months of Jose Berrios this past summer, and if the Mariners want to take a significant next step the free-agent route can’t stand alone. Look around. How were the Dodgers built? Lots of homegrown, but they traded for Mookie Betts, Trea Turner, and Max Scherzer. The Astros traded for Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander. The Red Sox traded for Chris Sale, and paid dearly in the form of Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech. The White Sox traded a 24-year-old starting second baseman for Craig Kimbrel. And we all know what the Padres have given up to land Blake Snell, Austin Nola, among others. I have spent  a lot of time the past 20 years helping demonstrate the value of prospects to fans of the Seattle Mariners, and I stand by every word. But I also have reminded everyone who’d listen that trades aren’t about what you give up, it’s about what you get in return. Trading top prospects is a tough decision, and like every other move made in baseball, it’s a wager. There are no guarantees. Dipoto, Justin Hollander and the rest of the baseball folks in the organization are charged with taking the best shots available, and at the right time. Sometimes big trades hurt a bit. Be prepared. That kind of trade is on the table this winter. Jose Ramirez, 3B — Cleveland GuardiansRamirez is a bit of a pipe dream unless and until Cleveland gives indications they’re looking to retool. He’s just now 29, a plus defender at third and a well above-average bat that has toyed with MVP-caliber production since 2017. But Ramirez is signed to a team-friendly deal that extends through the 2023 season, so Cleveland can make another go of it to start 2022, and consider moving Ramirez over the summer. They did make a mistake with Francisco Lindor in hanging onto him too long before trading him, but if Cleveland wants to actually spend big to retain Ramirez there’s no need to trade him at all, but when was the last time that franchise paid big for anyone? And if they’re not going to pay him the $30-40 million a year for 5-plus seasons he’s worth, trading him now makes a lot more sense to waiting for next winter when the club is backed into a corner and gets pennies on the dollar —  just like they did with Lindor. The trade cost would be significant for two years of Ramirez, and there certainly would be numerous clubs interested, namely the Yankees, Dodgers, Blue Jays (especially if they don’t re-up with Semien), Red Sox, Braves, Reds, Phillies, Mets, Tigers, and, yes, the Mariners. Jorge Polanco, Luiz Arraez, 2B — Minnesota TwinsAfter the Twins failed to extend centerfielder Byron Buxton this past summer and traded ace Jose Berrios to Toronto, it’s fair to wonder if Buxton is next on the move, and if Polanco and/or Arraez might be right behind him. Arraez has a second-base bat, bringing a career .313/.374/.403 slash into the offseason. He’s around average defensively and doesn’t make an impact with his legs. His lack of power makes him more of a secondary-level target for a club like Seattle looking for major upgrades, and it’s fair to wonder if Arraez makes any sense at all with Abraham Toro in the fold, despite being a proven bat versus Toro’s raw status. Polanco, however, is a different animal. He’s one of the more underrated hitters in baseball after posting his second wRC+ of 120 or better in each of the last two full seasons. Polanco can manage at shortstop but is a better fit at second and has been solid-average there in 1,000 innings — most of that this past season. But we may be seeing the start of the switch hitter’s prime at the plate, which may warrant a move to third base, too, allowing for more flexibility for a potentially-acquiring club. He’s 28, has 59 homers over his last 1400 at-bats, and has never struck out more the 18.6% rate he posted in 2018, despite a more aggressive approach that has undoubtedly played a role in the growth of his power. Polanco is an above-average runner, and equally dangerous from both sides of the plate. Josh Donaldson, 3B — Minnesota TwinsDonaldson will be 36 this winter, but is still productive, even if he’s not the star bat he once was. At his age, however, and with his history, injuries are a concern, as is the $50 million guaranteed he’s owed through the 2023 season. Any trade out of Minnesota is bound to come with cash, or be a swap of contracts. I present Yusei Kikuchi, who may exercise his $13 million player option. Just a passing thought. There are all kinds of possibilities for the Twins and Mariners to connect on trades. Arraez and Donaldson? Polanco? Polanco and Donaldson? Just one of them? I don’t, however, love the idea of Buxton, in case you’re wondering, because high-profile players with one year remaining tend to cost 25-40% more than that one year is worth. Eugenio Suarez, 3B — Cincinnati RedsSuarez had a bad year at the plate — .198/.286/.428 — but still hit 31 homers and was a monster in September/October — .370/.460/.808, 220 wRC+. He’s fringe-average defensively at third — though he spent nearly 300 innings at shortstop this season. He’s 30, signed through 2024 with a club option for 2025 that if exercised would pay him $48 million over the next four seasons. A bargain, as long as Suarez gets most of his swagger back. He was a four-win player three straight seasons prior to the weirdness that was 2020. A pair of scouts believe Suarez’s conditioning may be part of the problem, but there are lots of reasons to believe he can get back the majority of his mojo, including barrel rate, hard-hit rate, a 100-point drop in batting average on balls in play. Considering there are other players on the roster Seattle might have interest in this winter (stay tuned), Suarez may come up in talks. Brandon Lowe, 2B/3B — Tampa Bay RaysConsidering all the infield talent in the Rays’ system and how the club operates with veterans, Lowe could be available this winter. At 27, he’s coming off a career year that resulted in a .247/.340/.523, 39 homer season. He’s fringy defensively at second, and with the bat exploding I wonder if third base is at all an option, despite an average arm. He’ll swing and miss (27% in 2021), but he’ll also walk (11.1%), and his contract carries him through 2024 at $18 million total, with two club options worth a total of $22 million for 2025-26. If the Rays are willing to discuss Lowe, Seattle should be interested, especially if they think he can handle third base on top of second, giving them even more alignment options with their bats. Bryan Reynolds, OF — Pittsburgh Pirates Reynolds may be as sought after as any player on the trade market this winter if the Pirates make him available. He’s coming off a 142 wRC+ season at age 26, and will not qualify for free agency until after the 2025 season. The Pirates absolutely should start adding around Reynolds, a switch-hitting outfielder some believe could win a batting title in his prime. But who knows what the Pirates will try to do, if anything, so Reynolds remains a topic of trade conversation. Defensively, Reynolds is passable in center for now but belongs in left thanks to a below-average throwing arm and range. If Pittsburgh decides to talk trade with Reynolds, it’s not going to be cheap, despite the fact he’s not a long-term centerfielder. As I stated above, just about anything is on the table, and I’d be remiss if I didn’t remind everyone how creative and sometimes off-the-radar this club goes on a regular basis. So when Dipoto and friends do just that, don’t fret. They’ve proven they know what they’re doing.Go!

Jerry Dipoto has made a lot of trades since being hired as the general manager of the club prior to the 2016 season. Some have been very good. Some have been awful. Some of the good trades have been even swaps. There are a handful of deals we’ll have to wait a little longer to determine its ultimate results. We’ve yet to see the kind of trades Dipoto will have to make to get the team from trending up to playoff contender, but we’ve seen everything else. Here are the worst, best, and some in between. But these are not ranked. I’ll let you do that. WORST SS Chris Taylor to Los Angeles Dodgers for RHP Zach Lee: June 19, 2016 Taylor still had six full seasons of club control remaining at the time of the trade. Lee, a former top prospect, never pitched for the Mariners and has been toiling around in the minors with mixed results in the Rays, Mets, and Diamondbacks organizations since his eight innings with the Padres in 2017. Taylor, who hits free agency this offseason, has been worth 14.8 fWAR, including a 4.8 fWAR season in 2017, his first full season with the Dodgers. This trade serves as the worst of Dipoto’s Mariners career, at least so far. There are some contenders, however. RHP Freddy Peralta, RHP Daniel Missaki, IF Carlos Herrera to Milwaukee for 1B Adam Lind: December 9, 2015 Peralta spent 2014 in rookieball . Lind had one year of control left. The Brewers developed Peralta into the majors in 2018 where he’s been serviceable as a reliever and spot starter, and in 2021 he’s been terrific in 19 starts. He’s on his way to a 4-win season and the Brewers control his contract for two more seasons. LHP Ryan Yarbrough, SS Carlos Vargas to Tamp Bay for Drew LHP Smyly: January 11, 2017 While this one is totally fine in process, it just didn’t work out since Smyly never was healthy for Seattle. Yarbrough has been a useful arm for Tampa Bay since 2018, tallying 5.7 fWAR, including 2.7 in 141.2 innings in 2019 and 1.2 in 114 innings this season. The Rays control his contract for two more seasons. Smyly was coming off Tommy John but ended up missing a second full season in 2018 and hit free agency that winter. RHP Pablo Lopez, OF Brayan Hernandez, RHP Lukas Schiraldi to Miami for RHP David Phelps: June 20, 2017 This one is the top contender to the Lee-Taylor trade, especially with Phelps pitching just 10 games for the Mariners and then requiring surgery that would force him out of 2018 entirely. Hernandez and Schiraldi are out of affiliated baseball, and while the 25-year-old Lopez was below league average over his first two big-league seasons he has been particularly good this season for the Marlins, with two more seasons of club control remaining. RHP Emilio Pagan, IF Alexander Campos to Oakland for 1B Ryon Healy: November 15, 2017 Healy struggled to hit for average for one-plus seasons and was DFA’d after an injury-riddled 2019. He did hit 31 homers in 180 games for Seattle, and Campos is still in Low-A ball at 21, but Pagan has been a madly inexpensive and useful middle reliever — better than that at times —  for the A’s and Padres. RHP JP Sears, RHP Juan Then to New York Yankees for RHP Nick Rumbelow: November 18, 2017 Rumbelow is now out of baseball and struggled to throw strikes in 16 games for Seattle in 2018-19. Sears, now 25, is in Double-A for the Yankees pitching well, but no path to consistent big-league opportunities. Then, who was 17 at the time of the trade, was good in 11 starts for the Yankees rookie club in 2018 before being reacquired by the Mariners a year later. RHP Nick Neidert, RHP Robert Dugger, SS Chris Torres to Miami for 2B Dee Strange-Gordon & $1M international slot money: December 7, 2017 While this trade certainly goes down as a loss, it was a very worthy wager to make at the time, since the reason Dipoto made it was to acquire as much slot money as possible in attempt to land Shohei Ohtani. Torres is out of affiliated ball, Dugger struggled in the big leagues for the Fish and is now back with the Mariners, and Neidert has been knocked around in 10 games in the majors. 1B Logan Morrison, IF Brad Miller, RHP Danny Farquhar to Tampa Bay for RHP Nate Karns, LHP C.J. Riefenhauser, OF Boog Powell: November 5, 2015 While I understood this trade at the time, I didn’t like it because I didn’t see the upside in Powell or Riefenhauser. Miller gave Tampa 2.3 fWAR and a 30-homer season, Morrison posted 3.7 fWAR for the Rays led by a 3.2-win 2017 season. Farquhar struggled in Tampa but Powell, Karns, nor Riefenhauser gave Seattle anything, the latter never throwing a pitch in the organization. Did this trade hurt the club’s future? No, and it actually saveda bit of salary. But it didn’t help the present, either. While Dipoto was simply looking for hidden value and it was worth the risk of the upside of the players going out, getting no long-term pieces in return makes this one a clear loss. BEST RHP Austin Adams, C Austin Nola, RHP Dan Altavilla to San Diego for RHP Andres Munoz, 1B Ty France, C Luis Torrens, OF Taylor Trammell: August 31, 2020 Ah yes, this is the deal when Dipoto took AJ Preller to the woodshed and gave him a whoopin’. Apparently one he asked for, too. France is already a 120 wRC+ bat with more on the way and four years of club control after 2021, and Luis Torrens has refined his game after early-season struggles. Trammell has flashed but struggled overall in the majors, but is just 23 and has added more power potential to his profile. Munoz may make his Mariners debut in September and has HLR potential. The Padres side of this? Well, early it’s been rough. Nola hit just .217/.314/.383 in 18 games after the trade last season, and has played in just 24 games this season, batting .222/.354/.317. Altavilla has made just two appearances this season for having Tommy John surgery in June. He was solid in 8.2 innings last September. Adams has been just OK in 47 games in 2021, posting 0.4 fWAR. He didn’t pitch for Seattle last season prior to the trade and managed just four innings after the deal. The Padres need Nola to give them value over the next four years, but even if he does it’s not likely San Diego justifies the trade package in isolation. RHR Taylor Williams to San Diego for RHP Matt Brash: August 31, 2020 Woodshed. Williams, who is now on the 60-day IL with a knee injury, made one appearance last season for the Padres, then five more this season before he got hurt. But even we assume he was an average middle reliever, Brash’s development this season as a potential mid-rotation starter makes this an easy and significant win for the Mariners. RHP Kendall Graveman, RHP Rafael Montero to Houston for 2B Abraham Toro, RHP Joe Smith: July 30, 2021 Yep, that’s right, this is a coup for the Mariners. I expect Graveman to be good for the Astros for two months and perhaps into October, and I hope and believe they have a good chance to get more out of Rafael Montero — Brent Strom is as good a pitching coach as there is, and Montero has had success in the majors. But, Graveman hits free agency after the season — at which time if they feel like it Seattle can get involved, just like they could if they hadn’t traded him — and Toro looks the part of an everyday bat that can handle second base, a position the Mariners lack internal options. Toro also comes with control through 2025, with team-friendly salaries all the way there, which allows the club to spend money and trade assets on another bat or two, and impact starting pitching. Smith is a rental throw-in, but he’s off to a good start and might be able to hold onto his roster spot the rest of the year. This is a no-brainer win for the Mariners regardless of what Graveman does or when he does it. DH Edwin Encarnacion, cash to New York Yankees for RHP Juan Then: June 15, 2019 The Mariners righted a wrong when they traded Then for Rumbelow two years prior, and Then is developing in High-A this summer, showing mid-90s heat and an above-average slider. He may be a reliever long-term, but he’s added strength to his frame and may hold in a starting role. Encarnacion was pretty good for the Yankees — .249/.325/.531 with 13 homers in 44 games — but Seattle gets a very good arm with a chance to help for several years, and even if it’s entirely out of the bullpen this is a victory deal for Dipoto. LHP Nick Wells, cash to Washington for RHP Austin Adams: May 4, 2019 This one speaks for itself. Adams helped the club get the France-led package from the Padres the following August and Wells, now 25, is pitching in relief in Triple-A for the Nationals. RHP Jesus Ozoria to San Francisco for C Tom Murphy: March 29, 2019 Ozoria, 23, is out of affiliated baseball. Murphy posted 3.2 fWAR in 2019, missed all of 2020 with a knee injury and has been worth a win in 2021 despite a terribly slow start at the plate. He’s under club control for two more seasons, and if he finishes strong at the plate may be a valuable trade piece for the Mariners this winter. 1B Carlos Santana, $6M to Cleveland for $5M, DH Edwin Encarnacion: December 13, 2018 This deal, part of a three-teamer with Tampa, is an extension of the deal that follows in this list, turned into Juan Then, so … SS Jean Segura, LHP James Pazos, RHP Juan Nicasio to Philadelphia for SS J.P. Crawford, 1B Carlos Santana: December 3, 2018 In addition to the Segura-Crawford portion of this transaction, it led to the deal that led to the deal that landed Juan Then. Segura has been fine for the Phillies, posting 5.5 fWAR through August 2. He has two years of control remaining, including a team option for 2023. Crawford has compiled 4.0 fWAR through August 2, and the Mariners control his contract for three more seasons and far more team-friendly costs than Segura. Pazos and Nicasio gave the Phillies next-to-nothing. Nicasio was worth 0.5 fWAR in 2019 and is now on MLB’s restricted list for what’s listed as ‘personal reasons’ after seeing time with the Rangers in 2020. Pazos never pitched for the Phillies. RHP Tommy Romero, RHP Andrew Moore to Tampa Bay for LF Denard Span, RHP Alex Colome: May 26, 2018 Moore struggled in Tampa, came back to Seattle and struggled there and the last time he was seen in pro ball was in one appearance for Class-A Lakeland in the Tigers organization. Romero, now 24, made his way to Triple-A earlier this season, but has so far stalled there in two subpar starts. Still a chance he helps the Rays in some capacity. Span hit .272/.329/.435 for the Mariners for four-plus months and worth a win over replacement. Colome was worth nearly a half a win out of the bullpen and then was trade for Omar Narvaez, who posted 1.8 fWAR for the Mariners in 2019 and was then traded for Adam Hilland Connor Phillips. Phillips is my No. 11 prospect. 2B Robinson Cano, RHP Edwin Diaz, cash to New York Mets for OF Jarred Kelenic, RHP Justin Dunn, RHP Anthony Swarzak, OF Jay Bruce, RHP Gerson Bautista: December 3, 2018 Woodshed. It was an unfair fight, but Brodie Van Wagenen picked it. The Mets covered about half of Cano’s remaining money ($120 million total) and has received 2.6 fWAR from Diaz, and 2.0 fWAR from Cano for their troubles. Even in all his struggles, Dunn has been worth 0.3 fWAR, and Kelenic is just getting started — so far it’s been a struggled, but he just turned 22 and we all know the direction this is headed, regardless of where the kid lands in terms of ceiling. The Mariners released Gerson Bautista, and Swarzak struggled before he was traded to the Braves for Jessie Biddle. The Mets can’t win this deal no matter what Diaz does for them, because essentially, they paid big freight in talent and took on huge money of a risky player in age and availability to do it. For the record, Cano still is owed $48 million over the next two seasons, and $40.5 of that is owed by the Mets. The Mariners, in taking back Jay Bruce and Anthony Swarzak, paid most of their portion of Cano’s money up front. Woodshed. Alex Colome to Chicago White Sox for Omar Narvaez: November 30, 2018 Colome had one year left and was set to make more than $7 million, a figure that made no sense for Seattle to carry in 2019, Year 1 of the big rebuild. Colome essentially turned into Adam Hill and Connor Phillips. Win. SS Rayder Ascanio to St. Louis for RHP Mike Leake, cash, international slot money: August 30, 2017 Ascanio is in Triple-A for the Cardinals, batting .197/.266/.346 and age 25. He’s a fringe minor leaguer at this point. Leake was worth 1.2 fWAR in five starts in September, 2017, and 2.3 fWAR in 2018. He struggled in 2019, but was still worth 1.3 fWAR in 22 starts before being traded to Arizona to be close to family. While Leake was far from an impact acquisition, the Mariners received $15 million cash from St. Louis to help cover the remainder of his salary. Zero risk, medium reward. Win. Cash to San Diego for RHP Nick Vincent: March 30, 2016 Vincent was acquired for essentially nothing and posted 2.7 fWAR at league minimum salaries for three seasons in Seattle. There were times he was their best reliever. IN BETWEEN There are also several deals that appear to be fairly even for now , including the trade that sent James Paxton to the Yankees. Justus Sheffield has yet to get on track, though he still has time. Erik Swanson is now a full-time reliever. Paxton gave the Yankees 3.8 fWAR in two seasons — 3.5 of that in Year 1. Sheffield and Swanson each have four more seasons to provide value, but so far, considering salary — the Yankees paid Paxton $21 million — this is basically a wash so far, with a chance to turn in Seattle’s favor. The deal that swapped two seasons of C Mike Zunino, OF Guillero Heredia and LHP Michael Plassmeyer for OFs Mallex Smith and Jake Fraley might appear a steal for the Rays, but in those two years Zunino hit 13 homers in 118 games and batted .161/.233/.323 and 0.3 fWAR. Zunino’s 2021 season was purchased via free agency. Heredia was worth 0.3 fWAR in 89 games. Plassmeyer never pitched for the Rays, but was traded this season for RHP Matt Wisler, who has been great, posting 0.8 fWAR in 20 games. Wisler has one more year of club control, and is the Rays last hope to gain value of the original trade. Smith didn’t help Seattle at all (-0.6 fWAR) over two years, but after intermittent stints worth nearly -1.0 fWAR, Fraley is rolling up value and is now a net 0.2 and counting. Fraley’s club control runs through 2026. The November 2016 trade that sent RHP Taijuan Walker and SS Ketel Marte to the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for SS Jean Segura, OF Mitch Haniger, and RHP Zac Curtus is edge Seattle at this point, but not a wide margin. That could change, however, in either direction. Marte has one more season of organic control remaining has given Arizona 12.0 fWAR thus far. Walker got hurt and ended his Snakes career with 32 starts and 2.6 fWAR. To date, Walker and Marte have cost the D-Backs $26.9 million, including the entirety of Marte’s 2021 salary. Seattle, however, did well, too, getting 6.6 fWAR from Segura in two seasons, paying Segura $15.8 million total, whole netting 10.3 fWAR for $7.1 million. That’s 16.9 fWAR at $22.9 million versus Arizona’s 14.6 fWAR at $26.9 million. But wait. Seattle traded Segura to the Philadelphia Phillies in a deal that returned JP. Crawford. Crawford’s 4.0 fWAR through August 2 at $3.2 million, we’re already at $26.1 million and 20.0 fWAR for the Mariners. Marte’s two remaining seasons in Arizona have to be awfully good to catch the Mariners in this trade, and because Haniger has a year left and Crawford has three, it’s difficult seeing this ending up remotely close. But it’s far from a blowout, and injuries (Walker’s TJ, Haniger’s core issues and Marte’s injuries this season) have impacted the results. Another one worth keeping an eye on in the trade that sent OF Tyler O’Neill to the St. Louis Cardinals for LHP Marco Gonzales. O’Neill has had a great year in 2021, posting 2.2 fWAR, getting him up to 4.0 fWAR in parts of four season in the Cardinals organization. O’Neill is under control for three more seasons after 2021. Gonzales, however, has a large head start. He’s posted 9.5 fWAR for the Mariners since the trade, and has two more organic control seasons remaining after 2021. We’ll see on this one, but O’Neill is going to have to be awfully good to make this a race. I don’t see it.Go!

Mariners fans have long been tired of the press for patience. And who can blame them? It’s been 20 years since their home team made the postseason, and 18 since it won 90 or more games. But when a group led by John Stanton purchased the Mariners in 2016 the deal brought new hope. Five years later and the short leash fans gave the new group is gone. And it should be. When Jerry Dipoto took over as GM and VP of Baseball Operations prior to the 2016 season, it was clear what needed to happen. The organization needed a rebuild. A foundational top to bottom, left to right, tear-it-down, build-it-up. The problem at the time was the roster was aging, expensive and had two mega contracts, which complicated starting a rebuild, and Stanton may not have liked the idea of spending, in the form of covering portions of contracts, to start over in 2016. So Dipoto and company began their tenure running the club in ‘do-what-you-with-what-you-have’ mode. And they did. It was a mediocre team at best at the time and continued to be the first two years. Once 2018 hit, a few things began to pan out and the team win 89 games. I’ve read a lot of criticism about the club’s decision to rebuild after winning 89 games. Some of the reasons I’ve heard and read include “they were an 89-win team, build on THAT,” and “if you can’t take an 89-win team and get to 95 from that you’re a terrible GM.” But the fact is, it was the perfect time to turn it over: Robinson Cano was 35, had half his $240 million contract remaining, and had just come off a suspension for testing positive for banned substances. But he performed well after the suspension, so if a team was willing to take on a good portion of the $120 million left, do it and don’t look back. Edwin Diaz had an elite, and unrepeatable, season as the club’s closer. He’d yet to hit arbitration status and there were four years left of contract control. If there’s one thing we’ve learned about relievers over the years, it’s their insane level of volatility. Feliz Hernandez’s contract had two more guaranteed years, rather than five (at the start of Dipoto’s tenure) The club was out from under the contract of Nelson Cruz after the ’18 season, too, which isn’t a reason to start a rebuild, and it wasn’t a hindrance to house the deal it was a bargain, but having Cruz, Cano, Kyle Seager, and Hernandez was a great hamper to rebuilding, and was actually a bit of an opportunity to see what the roster could do, despite having very little opportunity to go add significant pieces (see: near-empty farm system, available financial assets stretched to a top-10, $175M payroll. Waiting and trying to make the most of the 2018 roster with an aging Hernandez, Cano, and Seager pulling away from his prime, no farm system, no significant financial flexibility — seriously, that roster wasn’t one $15 million player away, it was two stars and three average players (maybe $50-60 million proven players) from being a 95-plus win team — would have been a disaster. They would have lost out on the chance to take advantage of Diaz’s career year — it’s still by far his best year and may always be that way — shed a large chunk of Cano’s remaining contract, maximize the value of James Paxton and Mike Zunino, who each had two years of control remaining (had it been four, keeping both may very well have made sense), and most of all rebuilding the foundation itself — the farm system. Passing on the opportunity to do any or all of the above would have been a fireable offense for any GM and a senseless preference for an ownership. It takes commitment and financial guts to approve such a plan. At the time, the ownership was worthy of applause. Well, that’s faded, if not gone altogether, and not solely because the club still isn’t winning — this season was always marked as the corner, not the year the team had a great chance to win — but because the ownership has done nothing but shoot itself in the foot, even since the rebuild began two and a half years ago. First, by acting like a corporation that doesn’t care enough about its employees, when they cut their pay because the team’s profits were hit by the pandemic, and let it impact their plans to build a winning team — more on that in a minute. That was an opportunity to stand out in a positive way, both in the community and among ownerships in baseball. Failed. Then came the Kevin Mather fiasco. Not only did the president of the baseball team make racist comments, which is bad enough all by itself, he spit on a very good and loyal player, and admitted the club was manipulating the service time of prospect Jarred Kelenic, a practice long deployed in Major League Baseball, but never one that was carelessly and braggadociosly stated to those outside an organization. Mather, at the time, was a minority owner on top of his president role. But rather than the club acting swiftly, removing Mather from the role, and starting the process of booting him from ownership, he was allowed to resign, and Stanton, in a press conference the following Monday after Mather’s comments on a Zoom call to the Bellevue Rotary club were made public, would not even answer the question of whether he would have fired Mather had he not resigned. The owner of the team did nothing to stand up for Julio Rodriguez, Seager, Kelenic, and at the end of the day, for a franchise that cannot afford further embarrassment. Perhaps Stanton lacks the ability to serve as the mouthpiece. I’ll grant him the benefit of the doubt there. But he’s the owner of the team. He can say whatever he wants whenever he wants, and he hasn’t been heard from in any meaningful capacity since. Not on the future of the on-field product, not on the Mather situation, not on further steps the organization has taken to create the right culture for people, including players. What we have learned in recent months is Mather, long before his appalling comments, meddled in baseball operations when he nixed original payroll plans for the 2020-21 offseason, leaving Dipoto to stand pat over the winter rather than start adding significant pieces to help the club turn the corner. Dipoto has been calling ’21, in his own words, the corner year since the rebuild began in November 2018, and here it is time to start executing toward that and Mather, the money guy, chose money, derailing Dipoto’s plans and essentially pushing the timeline backward. But this is on Stanton. It’s on Stanton for not sticking with his commitment to winning baseball, something he has said publicly on numerous occasions, and it’s on Stanton because he asked fans to be patient, and then, asked them for more time, because, well, money. No. Just… no. These are not the actions of a committed ownership. And now, to fans, Dipoto’s words ring hollow if he doesn’t deliver. If you’re Dipoto here, you’re not happy at all. We can argue all day about whether Dipoto can execute as successful a second half of the rebuild process as he has the first half, but none of it matters if the ownership doesn’t stick to its own commitments. Or we need to define the word ‘commitment’ to Mr. Stanton, just so we’re all clear. noun1. the state or quality of being dedicated to a cause, activity, etc. “the company’s commitment to quality” Ownership committing to winning, and staying committed, does not mean it has to spend until they win, or they’re not committed. It means being competitive with payroll. Taking risks when the club’s baseball people see an opportunity. It means thirsting for winning like the fans. And that was Stanton’s selling point as majority owner; he’s a fan. The man keeps score. The dude gets distracted at business meetings because he’s checking scores. True stories. However, the company, the Seattle Mariners, have broken their commitment at least once already under Stanton in terms of putting a winner on the field. Commitments don’t come with conditions. That’s why they’re commitments. After all that’s occurred the past three years — and really the past nine months — Stanton still has an opportunity to climb out of this as clean as Andy Dufresne. But rather than landing on a beach overlooking the blue of the Pacific, such commitment leads to what sports owners like more than anything — money. Literally, remaining committed to winning will make owners even more money. They just don’t want to take risks. That has to change. At the end of the day, the financial backing must be available to Dipoto to expect him to finish what he started. Immediately. Now. It’s difficult enough to build good baseball rosters. There are 29 other teams trying to beat you at the same game, after the same goals, after the same players. Some have committed owners. Those that don’t fail over and over. You know the teams on both ends of this equation: The Los Angeles Dodgers, Washington Nationals, New York Yankees, New York Mets, San Diego Padres, St. Louis Cardinals, Houston Astros, and a few others, have been committed to winning over the last several years. Others are joining or rejoining the party. Most of those teams are winning or have won a lot in recent years. And commitment isn’t about splurging for $230 million payrolls every year, or ever. The Cardinals are consistently ranked between eighth and 14th in payroll. The Astros rank No. 5 this season and last, but have ranked eighth, ninth, and 17th during their run to World Series prominence. YEAR PAYROLL RANK 2022 $33.700M — 2021 $92.325M 25 2020 $112.751M 23 2019 $152.527M 14 2018 $170.971M 10 2017 $174.721M 12 2016 $171.340M 10 2015 $144.985M 13 Heck, the Mariners themselves were 12th in 2017, 10th a year later, and 13th in 2019. And while there’s no “get back to this number and it’s real commitment” it is “get back to the plan” and especially “let Jerry cook.” Put the plan, financially speaking, back in motion. Today. Not tomorrow. Today. If Dipoto (and his lieutenants) has proven anything to team ownership, it’s his ability to be trusted with payroll. He’s cleaned house, has proven adept at working markets with the best in baseball, and has proven he can identify talent, from the amateur ranks through long-time big leaguers. His efforts have protected this ownership’s financial risk for five-plus years now. Time to flip the script. Owners can drive their way to more money. They’re billionaires. They’ve done it before — they do it in their sleep. But owners have never steered teams to winning. Baseball people do that, and it’s time Stanton hands the reins back to his baseball people, led by Dipoto, and sit back and enjoy the ride like the rest of us. But things need to move in this direction quickly or even more fans are going to permanently jump ship. They don’t have another 20 years. They may not have another 20 minutes. And if Stanton doesn’t think Mariners fans will jump ship and hop on the bandwagon of other sports teams in the city with their heads, their hearts, and their wallets, or even toward a potential MLB franchise in Portland, he’s sorely mistaken. The ownership of this baseball team must step up. With their words, with their actions, and with their wallets. The opportunity to be different remains. It’s not too late. It’s never too late be better. To be the outlier in Major League Baseball. To be a place people want to work. To be a place players want to play. To be the team fans want to support. This ownership still has a chance to do right by Julio Rodriguez and Jarred Kelenic, and to honor the patience of the fan base, by sticking to their own commitment to winning. And there’s no time like the present.Go!

The past three weeks in Marinersland has been rough. The club was no-hit twice, is averaging 3.1 runs per game in May and allowing nearly six. While there’s no tipping the scales toward a playoff roster in 2021, the Seattle Mariners can and should pull off a few minor moves to improve the club’s ability to compete the rest of the season. Ty France is due back this week. I imagine the roster move there is Eric Campbell option or DFA, and France will play a lot of first base. In a week or so, Dylan Moore will be eligible to return, too, and if he’s ready as soon as he’s eligible, the roster move there is probably Jack Mayfield sent back to Triple-A Tacoma. Once Marco Gonzales returns, one of the relievers likely heads back to Triple-A. But here are four more moves the club can make in addition to getting healthy in order to eliminate some of the steep troughs in expected performance. 1. Call up C Cal Raleigh, option Jose Godoy The wait isn’t going to last much longer, and even if Raleigh comes up and hit .200/.260/.375, he’s an upgrade at the plate and behind it. Tom Murphy is a fine glove, and does some things defensively better than Raleigh at present, but the club’s top catching prospect is a switch hitter with above-average power from both sides — plus from the left — and projects to average on-base marks. This move costs the Mariners nothing. I’m totally OK with the club waiting for what they feel is the right time. They know this player better than anyone. But this ultimately is an easy move. 2. Trade for 2B Adam Frazier, DFA C/1B Jacob Nottingham Why Frazier, and what do the Mariners do with a healthy Moore after this acquisition? Answer: Play matchup. Frazier, who is No. 13 on my Mariners Trade Target Index available to Baseball Things subscribers, is under club control through next season. He’s 29 and a left-handed bat that makes consistent contact. His career slash is .279/.343/.418, but he’s having a career year right now at .339/.402/.471. He’s not going to sustain that, but helps the club get on base more and move runners ahead of him. He handles the bat well, is a good bunter, and a solid defensive second baseman. Frazier can spell Crawford at shortstop, as can Moore, and has nearly 1,000 innings of at least average defense in the outfield. Frazier and Moore have similar defensive profiles, but are opposites with the bat beyond handedness, and until Evan White is ready to return (more on that in a second), Moore and France can share first base and DH, while Moore also spells Kyle Seager at third, Mitch Haniger and Jarred Kelenic in the corners, Crawford at shortstop, as well as some starts at second base. Moore hit .265/.324/.618 May 7-18 before the IL stint, and appears to be much more likely to produce versus left-handed pitching. Frazier wouldn’t be FREE, but the cost here isn’t likely to be prohibitive, and he can help solidify the club’s infield for next season, as he carries a much more reliable set of offensive skills. Even with Shed Long set to start a rehab assignment, the club lacks stability at second base, and it’s time to start considering the floor on a position-by-position basis.  Luis Arraez is another option, but he’d be quite a bit pricier as there are four control years attached after 2021. A trio of Top 30 prospects — two in the top 20 — ought to get it done. By the way, Frazier came highly recommended in the 2013 Draft by scout Jeremy Booth: See his scouting report 3. Option 1B Evan White to Triple-A Tacoma How does this help the ‘floor’ of the current roster? Well, think about what we’ve done offensively with the additions of Raleigh and Frazier, and the return of France and Moore. White would have to replace someone on the 26-man. Let’s walk through this. The Mariners have been carrying 10 non-catcher position players, and probably will continue to do so, even after Gonzales returns from the IL. So we have the two catchers, Seager, Crawford, Moore, France, Frazier, Haniger, Kelenic and Kyle Lewis. That’s 10. One of those players is out if White returns to the active roster. What’s likely to happen beyond the scenario we’ve built here is White is activated and a player like Nottingham, Campbell, Mayfield, or Walton is optioned. But we’ve already done that, so we need a different solution. It just so happens this solution is better for player and club. White needs time in Triple-A, and he’s going to get some of that on a rehab assignment, but it should be extended beyond 20 days so he can fix his swing. 4. Trade for RHP Chris Stratton, option Yohan Ramirez This is another inexpensive addition that reduces the inflammatory nature of the pitching staff. Stratton throws strikes, limits walks, and is actually comparabale to Drew Steckenrider in ability to get outs, though at the moment Stratton’s strikeout rate of 24% is down from 29% a year ago. He is, however, avoiding the walk and home run better than ever. His contract is controllable through 2023, so its not a rental and he won’t be free. But the Pirates are going nowhere fast and a couple of potential future contributors should be good enough to grab the right-hander. Stratton, who also has experience starting in the majors, has made five two-inning appearances. He sits 92-94 mph with the fastball, has an average slider and curveball, plus an average changeup. With such an acquisition, the Mariners will have a decision to make when Casey Sadler is ready to return from the IL. Paul Sewald, JT Chargois, Erik Swanson are all potential options to head back to Tacoma. Ultimately, two of the three will shipped out since one is almost certain to go upon Gonzales’ return. Stratton’s price tag is probably similar to that of Frazier’s and he’s around as a quality middle reliever and spot starter through 2023. The above upgrades aren’t going to turn the current roster into a contender, but they solidify the roster both now and for the immediate future, and don’t mortagage but a few pennies of the future in the grand scheme.Go!

So, the Seattle Mariners finished the month of April 15-12. There were some ups and downs, including a month the bullpen was one of the best in baseball as the offense is among the league’s bottom third. Mariners April Win-Loss 2015-2019 2019: 18-142018: 16-112017: 11-152016: 13-102015: 10-12 There are a lot of ways to look at the first month of the season, but I hope some of the following numbers help tell the story from a little different angle. Below is a mix of team and player stats, some are positive, some are not. And there’s mostly no rhyme or reason to the order they are listed. The Mariners rank… 17th in runs scored per game (4.15) 13th in runs allowed per game (4.11) 28th in batting average (.211) 27th in on-base percentage (.291) 21st in slugging percentage (.375) 17th in home runs (30) 4th in doubles (46) 10th in stolen bases (13) 8th in batting average with runners on base (.255) 7th in slugging percentage with runners on base (.427) 3rd in batting average with runners in scoring position (.281) 2nd in slugging percentage with runners in scoring position (.516) 11th in batting average with RISP and two outs (.235) 5th in slugging percentage with RISP and two outs (.444) So, the team 11th in batting average w/RISP and fifth in slugging w/RISP is is 17th in runs scored. It’s as if the stats aren’t telling at all and should never be pushed as such an important part of a team’s chances to win games. It’s always been about getting on base, creating a lot of opportunities, and hitting for power. Always. 25th in batting average with two outs (.211) 22nd in on-base percentage with two outs (.299) 21st in slugging percentage with two outs (.362) 30th in batting average when leading off an inning (.184) 26th in on-base percentage when leading off an inning (.272) 19th in ERA (3.75) 16th in FIP (4.02) 28th in xFIP (4.51) 28th in pitcher strikeout rate (20.5%) 28th in starting pitcher strikeout rate (19.7%) 29th in relief pitcher strikeout rate (21.6%) 20th in pitcher walk rate (9.3%) 3rd in saves (8) 7th in starting pitcher innings (137.0) 14th in relief pitcher innings (95.2) 29th in starting pitcher xFIP (4.64) 21st in relief pitcher xFIP (4.32) 8th in relief pitcher LOB% Mariners relievers throw fewer fastballs than all but seven other clubs (49.7%)… They rank 9th-lowest in sliders thrown, 17th in cutters thrown, seventh in curveballs and eighth in changeups. Mariners starters ranks 23rd in fastball rate (45.7%), 13th in sliders, 7th in cutters, 10th in curveballs, 20th in changeups… Ty France ranks No. 14 in Sweet Spot rate (45.9%). Sweet Spot rate means the launch angle is between eight and 32 degrees, the angle at which nearly all hits travel off the bat. Kyle Seager is 28th in barrel rate (16.3%) and 67th average exit velocity (91.0 mph). Luis Torrens ranks 89th in average exit velocity at 90.4 mph. Taylor Trammell‘s 40.7% strikeout rate ranks 16th-highest. Tom Murphy‘s 36.5% ranks 27th-highest. Mitch Haniger;s 144 wRC+ is 19th in MLB among outfielders and 53rd overall. France ranks 27th in fWAR (1.0). Yusei Kikuchi‘s 30.2 innings is 28th in MLB, despite the fact most that rank ahead of him have made six starts to his five. Marco Gonzales‘ 91.4 mph average exit velocity is 6th-highest in MLB. Seattle’s 89.6 mph average exit velocity against is 7th-highest in baseball. The club’s allowed hard hit rate of 39.1% ranks 16th highest. The Mariners’ pitching staff induces chases on pitches out of the zone at a 31.1% clip, 11th-highest in MLB. The starters ranks 22nd (29.9%). The relievers rank 3rd at 32.9%. Mariners pitchers rank 30th in MLB in swinging strike rate at 9.5%, and 20th in called strike rate (16.5%). Both pitches are a sign of raw stuff and command. No team in baseball allows more contact on chased pitches (70.2%), or contact overall (79.7%). Seattle’s first-strike rate of 59.5% is 14th highest. Mariners batters rank 27th in average exit velocity (88.0 mph, tied with LAA, PIT), 19th in hard hit rate (38.6%), and 5th in hard hit rate (9.7%). Batting .219 on the first pitch, and slugging .406 on the first pitch, both worst in baseball. Batting .199 at home, worst in baseball. Seattle is batting just .160 when putting breaking balls in play. Amazingly, the Mariners are 3rd-best in baseball is laying off pitches above the zone (18.5%). 48.2% of the Mariners hits off starting pitchers have been for extra bases, the highest rate in baseball. 43.3% of the club’s hits for the season have gone for extra bases. 45.1% of Mariners hits with two strikes are of the extra-base variety, No. 3 in MLB. Mariners batters have hit against the shift 40% of the time this season, second-most in baseball (ATL, 41%). Seattle is slugging .509 in non-two strike counts, 3rd worst in MLB. Cincinnati leads the league at .670. Cleveland is worst at .473. In non-two strike counts, the Mariners have put 32% of their swings in play, 2nd-lowest in MLB. Mariners batters have chased just 24% of pitches out of the strike zone, 4th lowest in baseball, and just 11% of pitches out of the zone on the first pitch of plate appearances, 2nd-best in baseball. Seattle has scored first in 73% of their road games this season, 3rd-highest rate in MLB. Mariners batters have struck out on three pitches 55 times this season, tied for most in MLB. Eugenio Suarez ranks last (.034), Luis Arraez ranks No. 1 at .306. Mitch Haniger ranks 4th (.267). Hangier hits versus the shift 78% of the time so far. On inside pitches, Haniger owns a 55% ground ball rate. Vs. right-handed breaking balls, Haniger is slugging .611. On breaking balls away, Haniger has swung and missed 61% of the time, 8th-highest in MLB. He’s hitting .500 on fastballs away, however, 6th-best in baseball. Haniger is destroying lefties so far, as evidenced by his .800 slugging percentage against them. Oddly, lefty breaking balls have given him problems (87% whiff + foul rate). Dylan Moore is batting .085 with two strikes, 6th-worst in MLB. He’s put in play just 17% of his swings on fastballs, lowest in baseball. Tom Murphy has swung and missed on 44% of his total swings, incredibly just 7th-worst in MLB. Murphy’s home run to right-center field Friday night was a welcomed sight, since he’s pulling nearly 59% of the balls he puts in play, good for 13th-highest in MLB. Former Mariners catcher Mike Zunino leads baseball in pull rate at 72.7%. Catchers dominate this statistic. Of Kyle Seager’s 25 strikeouts this season, only three have come on fastballs. Seager’s 1.158 slugging percentage w/RISP leads all of baseball, as does his .450 well-hit average on pitches 95 mph or higher. Seager has kept the ball in the air versus righties this season (73% line drive+ fly ball). Seager’s ground ball rate on pitches on the outer portion of the plate is 30%, and his batting average on such pitches is just .103. Seager has swung and missed 54% of the time on breaking ball swings, and right-handed breaking balls are his nightmare (.062 average). 13 of Luis Torrens’ 16 strikeout have come on non-fastballs. Torrens is hitless in his last 16 at-bats vs. LHP. Ty France is batting .378 with a .622 with runners on base. France has hit ground balls on just 6% of elevated pitches so far this season, which makes David Fletcher‘s effort versus Chris Flexen Friday night seem remarkable. France has yet to hit a home run this season when ahead in the count. France is batting .455 with two outs (2nd best), and slugging 1.167 versus changeups. Opponents are batting .182 and slugging .281 off the bullpen, both best in MLB. Seattle has turned a double play on 45% of its opportunities, the 2nd-best rate in baseball (24 of 53). Mariners starters have allowed a league-high .346 OBP versus right-handed batters this season. Ljay Newsome has induced a 79% swing rate with two strikes this season, the best among relievers this season. With two strikes, Will Vest has allowed one extra-base hit. Yusei Kikuchi has held lefties to a .087/.125/.087 slash, which means not one single extra-base hit yet. Chris Flexen’s four-seamer has been battered when he elevates the pitch (.500 average, .786 slugging percentage). Kendall Graveman has not allowed an earned run in any of his nine appearances this season and has allowed just five of 36 batters faced to reach base. Opponents are slugging .061 off Graveman this season. Graveman’s 34% chase rate on fastballs in Top 10 among relievers. Opposing batters have swung and missed on half of Graveman’s sliders, and own a .067 average. Rafael Montero has dominated RHBs this season — .185/.290/.259, despite a career mark of .265/.361/.437. Montero’s fastball has held batters to a .111 slugging percentage, but a .647 slugging on everything else. J.P. Crawford‘s average exit velocity (83.5 mph) ranks 23rd among 24 qualified shortstops (Didi Gregorius, 83.2), and his hard hit rate of 25.4% ranks No. 20. He’s batting .375 on fastballs away and has whiffed on just 14% of his swings on pitches 95 mph or higher. Crawford is batting .500 in favorable counts, and has struck out just once in 13 PAs versus left-handed pitchers. His career rate entering May is 22.5%. Crawford has the 9th-lowest well-struck average on inside pitches this season at .067. He’s batting .133 and slugging .167 on inside pitches. Crawford’s line-drive rate is down 6% this season and his ground ball rate is up 8%. Seattle’s 7-4 win over the Angels Friday gave the club a positive run differential on the year of +1. They’re one of 15 with a positive differential to start the month of May. The Dodgers lead MLB at +34. The Tigers bring up the rear at -58. The Mariners are 8-7 on the road and 7-5 at home. Seattle is 10-10 vs teams .500 or better, the same record as the Padres. Houston is 13-7 in such games, including 5-2 versus Seattle. The Mariners are 8-3 in day games, 7-9 at night, 11-8 vs right-handed starters, 4-4 versus lefties. They’re 4-0 in Little League games, 7-4 in 1-run contests, 5-2 versus teams below .500. Through April, the Mariners have played the toughest schedule in the American League, tied with the Rockies for most difficult in all of baseball.Go!