Author: Jason A. Churchill

The Seattle Mariners are coming out of a rebuild that began after the 2018 season. It started with a bang. A few, actually. James Paxton was shipped to the Bronx, Mike Zunino to Tampa, and we all know about the deal with the New York Mets. A year ago we saw the first significant signs of the club crawling out its rebuilding stages toward contention. They fell just shy of a playoff berth in 2021, but it was another step in the right direction, nonetheless. But the Mariners are not the only club primed to go from ‘rebuild’ to ‘contender’ soon, and as early as 2022. When I look at clubs of this ilk, I think of a handful of factors in terms of how good a shape they’re in for the future. Financial Situation – Payroll flexibility based on perceived limits – Ownership’s perceived financial commitment Farm System & Young talent – I don’t care about org and individual rankings here, I care about how the system can help the big club, considering the roster’s current needs and weaknesses – How many young players (that don’t qualify as prospects) are there with extended club control that carry impact upsides? Current Core – How good is the current core? – Core trend: Aging players maybe leaving prime or already near the end? Younger core still trending toward peak? How many established core types are there already? Recent Trends – How well did the team/some of the young key and core perform in 2021? – What’s the trend and ETA of the better prospects, especially those nearing the majors? Looking around the league, here are the clubs that appear to be in a similar place as Seattle, having underwent a rather large-scale rebuild, now showing major signs of becoming a consistent contender — and their Big Four Factors. But first, here are some examples of clubs that broke out of their rebuilds in recent seasons and who do so over the next few years. 2020: Chicago White Sox The Sox won, 63, 73, 76, 78, 67, 62, and 72 games from 2013-2019 (.424). then went 35-25 in 2020 (.599) and won 93 games this past season. The breakout in 2020 led to a Wild Card loss, but it clear they were ready to unseat the Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Guardians in the American League Central, and they did that in ’21. The Sox are in very good shape in terms of payroll (60 grade), thanks to the club’s masterful work in trades (Lance Lynn, for example), and avoidance of potentially payroll-crippling contracts (largest deal is Yasmani Grandal‘s 4/$73M deal that expires after 2023. Their farm system (30 grade on a 20-80 scale) is now one of the worst in baseball, but the roster (70) is littered with young impact players, such as SS Tim Anderson, 3B Yoan Moncada, OF Eloy Jimenez, budding star Luis Robert, and RHPs Lucas Giolito, and Dylan Cease. 2021: Toronto Blue Jays The Jays actually made the postseason in 2020, but in a 60-game season at 32-28 and an extended playoff slate. The real breakthrough was winning 91 games (.562) in 2021 and setting themselves up for a division title run in 2022. Toronto’s payroll situation is very good (70), despite three players earning $20 million or more annually. Until Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Bo Bichette starting getting paid what they’re worth, the Jays won’t have a single worry about a payroll squeeze. 2023: Texas Rangers After the signings of Marcus Semien and Corey Seager the Rangers are committing to winning again, but unless they’re really aggressive with pitching the rest of the offseason, 2022 won’t be a year they compete all season. Next year is a legitimate possibility, however, and I don’t believe they’ll be a bad team in ’22 — I’d assume some pitching/run prevention additions before the start of the year and about a .500 club. The Rangers have never been elite spenders in terms of team payroll, but they have been top 10 four times, 2012-2015, and while contending maintained a top-half payroll. The belief in the industry is they’ll ultimately return to top-10 status, and they maintain tons of flexibility (70) after the two big signings. The roster still isn’t good (40), at least as of January 22, so there’s a ways to go before real damage will be done on the field. The farm system (55) is solid, however, and included near-ready talents such as RHP Jack Leiter, 3B Josh Jung, and C/1B Sam Huff. Texas is going to be good at some point relatively soon. 2024: Baltimore Orioles The Orioles might have the game’s best position player prospect and best pitching prospect in Adley Rutschman and Grayson Rodriguez, and certainly are among the elite farms (80) in the game. They also have a few pieces on the big-league roster in Cedric Mullins, Ryan Mountcastle, and Trey Mancini, but there’s no real chance at legitimate contention in 2022, and 2023’s chances might be dependent largely on free agency, which is why ’24 seems most likely for them. Also contributing to that time frame is the fact their best talents are indeed those prospects, including RHP DL Hall, OF Colton Cowser, and LHP Gunnar Henderson. That’s going to take a few years to sprinkle about the 26-man. The current state of the projected 26-man (40) is very 2020 Mariners in that some kids are starting to show up, there are a few established players, but other than John Means there’s very little happening in rotation success, though Jorge Lopez has mid-rotation upside if he can throw more strikes. 2022 While none of these clubs are going to peak this coming season, there’s a real chance for each of them to produce a legitimate breakthrough in the win column, and ultimately contend for at least a Wild Card spot, regardless of whether or not the new CBA results in expanded playoffs. Detroit Tigers 2019: 47-114 (.292)2020: 23-35 (.397)2021: 77-85 (.475)Payroll: 72Young Talent: 71Current Core: 51Recent Trends: 62Overall: 65 Detroit is in terrific shape and have added Javier Baez to the mix this offseason. Their young guns — Casey Mize, Matt Manning, Tarik Skubal — haven’t young much yet, but Spencer Turnbull and Michael Fulmer have, and Baez fellow newcomer Tucker Barnhardt, Akil Badoo (108 wRC+), Miguel Cabrera and Jeimer Candelario (119) will get help from the farm soon. A.J. Hinch already has proven he’s good with younger players and Year 2 could be a rather large breakthrough for the Tigers. The young talent is among the elite in baseball and there’s as much payroll flexibility as GM Al Avila will ever need to build a winner in Motown. Seattle Mariners 2019: 68-94 (.426)2020: 27-33 (.450)2021: 90-72 (.556)Payroll: 70Young Talent: 73Current Core: 49Recent Trends: 63Overall: 65 The roster overall still has holes, but the core (Mitch Haniger, Marco Gonzales, Robbie Ray, J.P. Crawford, Ty France) is being joined by budding youngsters with massive upside. Jerry Dipoto has lined up extensive payroll latitude with the arrival of many of the club’s best prospects (Jarred Kelenic, Cal Raleigh, Logan Gilbert, Julio Rodriguez) — including a wave of arms that could contribute as early as 2022 — and an abundance of hungry players looking to earn time (Abraham Toro, Luis Torrens, Kyle Lewis). Miami Marlins 2019: 57-105 (.352)2020: 31-29 (.517)2021: 67-95 (.414)Payroll: 61Young Talent: 63Current Core: 43Recent Trends: 54Overall: 53 Miami has starting pitching — perhaps to spare, which could come in handy over the next several months — but the lineup needs even more help than that of the Tigers and Mariners. They didn’t make any significant additions in November, but expect a few lowkey bats added to the mix, and maybe even an impact trade involving a starting pitcher that lands a middle-of-the-order hitter. Kim Ng has operated with impressive discipline, considering how often other clubs are calling about trading for pitching, but don’t expect her to be quiet all winter. There is some money to spend, and the Marlins can make a move in the oddly-vulnerable National League East. Still, and depending how the club proceeds once the lockout is lifted, there’s a chance it’s a year early to expect the Fish to truly contend for the first time in a full season since 2009.Go!

The great Corey Brock at The Athletic penned a piece Wednesday discussing results from a Seattle Mariners fan survey, and I thought the results were interesting. Interesting enough I’m here to toss out my own responses to the survey questions. The questions range from Jerry Dipoto’s job approval to confidence the team is headed in the right direction, and everywhere in between. Here we go. How confident are you that the Mariners are headed in the right direction? Among those that responded in the survey, 53.4% said they were very confident the club was on the right path, while 41.8% said they were somewhat confident. That leaves just 4.8% ranging from unsure to not confident at all. My Vote: Very Confident There’s absolutely zero question the Mariners are headed in the right direction. There’s question whether they get where they want to go — or where fans want them to go — but anyone voting anything but very confident here hasn’t been paying attention during the rebuild — a three-year trek from 68 wins to a 73-win pace in 2020 to 90 wins in 2021. It’s just plain fact they’re on the right path. How would you rate the job Jerry Dipoto has done during the rebuild? The options: Poor, Below Average, Too Soon to Tell, Fair, Solid, Excellent. Too soon to tell doesn’t actually exist here considering the question, which states “has done during the rebuild” meaning “so far.” No one with a real clue responds with anything below solid, which was the prevailing reply at 62%. Just 27% responded excellent. Let me explain why excellent is the only answer. Dipoto was handed a club with aging and/or fading stars (Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, Felix Hernandez, Kyle Seager) in 2016 and asked to make the best of it without the opportunity to spend toward more wins with that core. During the first three years under Dipoto — the three prior to the start of the rebuild — the Mariners won 86, 78, and 89 games, contending into September twice, despite the obvious issues with the roster and no significant resources on the farm or in term so payroll flexibility. Not special, but they finished second, third, and third in the division. After 2018’s 89-win campaign, Dipoto and friends began a total rebuild. A full-bore, all-out tear-down. Now, when this occurs in Major League Baseball, the result is generally 5-7 years of 85-plus losses: see Astros, Houston, White Sox, Chicago, et al. But since then, Seattle has had just one season of such awfulness, 2019. As the club heads toward 2022, the farm system is among the elite in baseball — a complete 180 from 2015 when it was generally considered among the 3-5 worst — and the payroll flexibility the club has created with smart decisions and discipline is among the greatest assets to an individual club in all of baseball right now. Every avenue is open for Seattle, and that’s excellent work by those making those decisions. That’s Dipoto and crew. We don’t know if Dipoto is a good GM yet. You have to win — get to October, do some damage — before that’s even part of the equation. But there’s absolutely no denying the tremendous job done to date to put the club in the position they are in at present. It’s an A+ performance by Dipoto and the rest of the baseball people during the rebuild. Stop with the nonsense. Don’t conflate finishing the job with the performance during the rebuilding process. How confident are you that the Mariners will make the postseason in 2022 or 2023? Fans are fairly confident, as they should be. If this was just 2022, I’d vote unsure. With 2023 included, I’d check very confident, which is to say I’d be at leas mildly surprised if they didn’t make it one of the next two years, whether playoff is expanded or not. How confident are you that ownership will build a consistent winner? Fans are less confident here, and so am I, though I’m a lot more confident than most. I’d vote somewhat confident here because of the inclusion of the term ‘consistent.’ But it’s pretty clear John Stanton and the rest of  First Avenue Entertainment are committed to building a winner. Fans will be more convinced every additional dollar spent this winter once the lockout is lifted. Whether they spent consistently remain to be seen, but I don’t anticipate winning, rebuilding, winning, rebuilding, etc. Which position player would you like to see the team acquire this offseason? The options: Carlos Correa, Kris Bryant, Seiya Suzuki, Trevor Story, Michael Conforto. Of course, the answer is all of them, but if you have to pick one we’re picking Correa, right? I would vote that way. If we start considering contract terms, among other factors, I lean Story, Bryant, and Conforto, in that order. Which Mariners pitching prospect do you believe in the most? The options: George Kirby, Emerson Hancock, Matt Brash, Brandon Williamson, None of these I’m assuming ‘None of these’ actually represents ‘other’ more than just none, but I’d go Kirby here, without other qualifications in the question. I believe in Brash and Williamson as much as Kirby in terms of 2021 alone, but overall, Kirby’s the guy with the best combo of stuff, upside, floor, and ETA. Who do you predict will lead the team in saves? The options: Diego Castillo, Drew Steckenrider, Andrés Muñoz, Paul Sewald, Ken Giles I’d lean Steckenrider here, until we learn more about Giles’ health situation when spring camp opens. Sewald would be a very close second, partially because I’m not 100% convinced Steckenrider is on the roster in April. In three years, what kind of player do you predict Julio Rodríguez will be? The options: Just a guy, Average, borderline All-Star, One of the best in the game You’ll have to click on the link to see what fans think, but I’m somewhere between average and borderline all-star. If the question was changed to five years, I’d be more firmly on the all-star choice, and closer to whatever ‘one of the best in the game’ means in this context. Three years just isn’t very long, and for all we know Rodriguez may not debut in the bigs until June. How many games do you predict the Mariners will win in 2022? The options: 70-75, 75-80, 80-85, 85-90, 90+. In this case, 90+ actually means 91 or more since 90 wins is included in 85-90. As we sit here on January 19, I’m in the 85-90 camp, based on the current roster and the worst-case scenario the rest of the way. But 91 or more is well within reach. If the season started tomorrow, I’d vote 80-85. What’s your go-to food (and why) at T-Mobile Park? (Top five food responses) I very rarely eat at games, but the fans had a wide variety of replies to this, including the second most disgusting thing sold at the ballpark, garlic fries. What’s the best thing about being a Mariners fan? This was an open question on the survey and there are numerous answers, including 1.8% who said the broadcasting, 1.6% who said Edgar Martinez, 1.6% who said I love baseball, and 9.6% who said the ballpark. My favorite answer, however, is hope, chosen by 9.1% of the respondents. Remember, hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies. I hope I can make it across the border. I hope to see my friend and shake his hand. I hope the Pacific is as blue as it has been in my dreams. I hope.Go!

Word came out Wednesday the Seattle Mariners are expected to pursue more starting pitching once the lockout ends, per the great Corey Brock of The Athletic. While most expected the club to go after two legitimate arms to add to the rotation, the initial expectation was maybe a frontline type, plus a relatively reliable back-end starter to better bridge the gap from starter to bullpen, and turn over the rotation over on a winning note more often than they could in 2021. But the fact such a basic concept (adding more rotation help) would come out during the lockout after two absolutely dead weeks in Major League Baseball (thank you, owners, you’re all losers), is at least a bit peculiar, and I think begs the question of whether or not this means Seattle might be more aggressive with the rotation as a result of things on the offensive side getting a bit murky. Well, if you ask me the answer is ‘no.’ Absolutely not. In fact, I think the opposite is more likely to be true. I believe PoBOps– yes, I’m sticking with that sorta-acronym —  Jerry Dipoto sees an opportunity, perhaps one they weren’t sure would be there when the offseason began. The opportunity to do all they want to do with the lineup, plus address the rotation more aggressively than expected. Considering how assailing Seattle is willing to be with dollars, and how flexible they’re capable of being defensively, both on the infield and in the outfield in terms of who plays where and how often, there’s no reason to believe, somehow, some way, the lineup won’t be significantly better in 2022, even if they add exactly zero mashers. For me, a masher is a legit, reliable, middle-of-the-order bat that generally ranks among the top 20 or so in baseball year-in, year-out. They’d bat 2-3-4 in EVERY lineup in baseball. Juan Soto is a masher. Bryce Harper is a masher. Some are just good hitters, like Michael Brantley, Carlos Correa, Kris Bryant, and Manny Machado. They all fit somewhere, but they don’t always measure up well to the best in the game. — Churchill Whether it’s easy to see on paper because of names such as Trevor Story Kris Bryant, Michael Conforto, et al, or it takes a bit more squinting, the Mariners are fixing the offense. Side note: There is a way the Mariners offense is average or better without adding Bryant, Story, or Conforto, using a bit more of a quantity-over-quality approach, not that Dipoto and the Mariners prefer that.  Point is, betting against the club accomplishing their goals with the offense and adding multiple pieces to the lineup that raise the floor and the ceiling of their run-scoring abilities is superbly unwise. But the key to the entire offseason may end up being the Robbie Ray signing. Adding Ray to the top of the rotation, then hammering away and piecing together at least an average offense with upside, opens the door for a game-changing move: Adding another frontline starting pitcher and scaring the diapers off the Houston Astros, who have set a goal to win the American League West for the fifth time in six years. To demonstrate this, I’ll put names to the equation. Let’s assume the below transactions all get done — I used these because they are relatable, sensible, and realistic: Sign OF Michael Conforto to 1-year deal Trade for OF Raimel Tapia Sign IF Trevor Story to 5-year deal Sign RHP Chad Kuhl to a 1-year deal Sign LHP Martín Pérez to 1-year deal You’d have a projected lineup as follows (I’ll use my personal preferred order here, not what I think Seattle would actually do) — 2022 Steamer wRC+ in parenthesis. Adam Frazier, 3B (100) Ty France, 1B (122) Trevor Story, 2B (107) Mitch Haniger, OF/DH (115) Michael Conforto, OF/DH (121) Kyle Lewis OF/DH (103) J.P. Crawford, SS (103) Tom Murphy/Cal Raleigh, C (combined 91) Jarred Kelenic, OF (103) At least on paper, this is a solid lineup (not a below-average bat in the lineup per Steamer projections), and doesn’t include an infusion of Luis Torrens versus left-hand pitching, Abraham Toro spelling Frazier (mainly versus LHP), and Tapia taking over defensively in center and shifting Lewis to a corner late in games. And it doesn’t include Julio Rodriguez, whom I do not believe has a great chance to make the Opening Day roster but will see the majors for a good chunk of 2022, and he comes with a higher floor at the plate than did Kelenic last season. There’s a lot to like with that lineup. Sure, we could replace Story and Conforto with Bryant and Kepler, or go even further down the quantity theory I noted above, but you get the point. Seattle has a great chance to put up some crooked numbers more regularly in 2022 and beyond. Let’s say that lineup is about average. Could be better, but the catchers and Kelenic are far from surefire solid contributors. They have questions to answer. We know bullpens are volatile, but Seattle expects to be at least OK there to start the year with Ken Giles joining Paul Sewald, Drew Steckenrider, Casey Sadler, Diego Castillo, Andrés Muñoz, Erik Swanson, and Anthony Misiewicz, among others. The rotation, as it stands, is Ray, Marco Gonzales, Chris Flexen and Logan Gilbert. While Matt Brash, George Kirby, and Brandon Williamson, in some order, could each contribute in 2022, the No. 5 starter in this case would be either Kuhl or Pérez, whom I’ve signed to big-league, incentive-laden deals, followed by Nick Margevicius, Justin Dunn, and Justus Sheffield. The club, in some other recent seasons, would justify going to camp as-is. But after the winter we just put together for them, adding Tyler Anderson or Michael Pineda isn’t taking full advantage. What would be? Making the move. We know Dipoto does not feel moving top prospects is necessary to check off all the boxes for his club this winter, and that he’s not going to do it unless he feels the deal is a no-brainer. And he’s right. It’s not necessary. It’s not necessary to move any significant young talent this winter … unless a 95-win 2022 season is right there for the taking. And it very well could be, because the club acted early and landed one of the better rotation pieces on the market. There’s been a lot of buzz about Pittsburgh’s Bryan Reynolds this offseason, but in the scenario we’ve drawn up here, the move is adding another frontline starting pitcher. It’s making Gonzales the No. 3, Flexen the No. 4, and Gilbert the No. 5 with a silver bullet. It’s handing Scott Servais and Pete Woodworth a chance to match up well with every team, every game, no matter who is on the hill. It’s eliminating the games the club opens with a significant disadvantage on the mound, something we’ve seen all too often the last two decades in Seattle. Maybe they feel good about Carlos Rodon‘s arm and he’s the answer. Otherwise, the trade route is how Dipoto adds another frontline starter. We’ve discussed a lot the ideas of Oakland Athletics right-handers Chris Bassitt, and Frankie Montas, and lefty Sean Manaea, as well as the three righties in Cincinnati, Sonny Gray, Luis Castillo, and Tyler Mahle. But there’s also a pair of former Mariners farmhands to consider in Miami right-hander Pablo Lopez, and Brewers righty Fredy Peralta. Both the Marlins and Brewers want to contend in 2022, and are taking steps to doing so, but there are a lot of easy-to-see reasons why each club would entertain moving the arms. The key for Seattle is trade cost. Julio Rodriguez is not getting traded. Jarred Kelenic is not getting traded. George Kirby is not getting traded. I also don’t believe Noelvi Marte is getting traded, either, because while I think it’s worth moving him for four years of Bryan Reynolds, I don’t see how moving Marte and his ceiling for two years of a No. 2 or 3 starting pitcher is sensible. It’s simply not good value. Emerson Hancock‘s value is crimped in a lack of pro development and the fact he was shut down with a shoulder, um, thing we’ll call it for now, to end this past season, so he’s not going anywhere, either. But why not Brash? Williamson? Connor Phillips? Adam Macko? Alberto Rodriguez? Zach DeLoach? Levi Stoudt? Milkar Perez? Juan Then? The Mariners have several prospect I have ranked outside the Top 5 that would be inside the Top 5 of probably half the league or more. Stoudt is an underrated trade piece, despite being 24 already and having a short pro resume, because he tops out in the upper 90s and has a changeup that projects to 65-70 grades. I’m not saying Stoudt can headline a deal for Montas or Castillo or Lopez or Peralta, but he could be a pretty nice second piece. There’s no reason two years of Castillo, Montas, Mahle, or Gray should cost Rodriguez, Kirby, Kelenic, or Marte. If another club wants to include a top 40 talent to headline such a trade, good luck, Mets. And, obviously, Manaea and Bassitt are in their walk years, making each a bit less expensive to acquire than the other group, though clubs do tend to overvalue such players because of the idea players perform better heading toward free agency (Story would like a word), and the perceived value of draft-pick compensation, but neither are warranting top-5 talent from a top farm system. Lopez and Peralta are different stories. They’re also less likely to be seriously discussed by their respective teams, and they’d likely be more expensive since they’re each under club control for three more seasons. Each comes with more risk than the aforementioned group, though Mahle has a lot in common with Peralta — short track record of success in the majors as a starting pitcher. When all is said and done this offseason, the question may be whether or not what clubs such as Seattle might be willing to offer in young talent is enough to convince the Reds to deal Castillo. I think Gray is getting traded, however, so for the sake of this exercise once again, let’s add this transaction to the board: Mariners acquire RHP Sonny Gray from Cincinnati for LHP Brandon Williamson (No. 7), OF Zach DeLoach (10), RHP Luis Curvelo (29). This is just a best guess at this point. The trade market for such starters has yet to be set. If anything, the price will be higher. But it’s also not the point here, so let’s not fuss over semantics Now, in addition to the promising lineup and bullpen we’ve discussed already, the rotation looks pretty darned good: Robbie Ray, L Sonny Gray, R Marco Gonzales, L Chris Flexen, R Logan Gilbert, R It also may give the Mariners a surplus of starting pitching if and when the likes of Brash and Kirby force their way into the mix, but that is a legitimate contending five-man rotation. The No. 6-12 starters are Brash, Kuhl, Perez, Margevicius, Dunn, Kirby, Sheffield, in some order. For reference, the average playoff team uses 11-12 starters a year, and at least nine made five or more starts for all but four playoff teams over the past four seasons. Gray isn’t a prototypical No. 2, he’d ideally be a No. 3 in the same way Ray is probably more of a No. 2 (unless he takes his game up yet another notch, a topic for the next Baseball Things episode) Yep, get greedy. That’s what the Mariners should do with the rotation this winter, despite the fact they have promising arms on the way. Ray’s signing to a five-year deal, and having Gonzales under contract through 2025, allow the club to move one of their pitching prospects, or even two theoretically, without tossing out an alarming measure of quality depth. Brock’s report shouldn’t surprise anyone. Seattle needs another starter, plus some depth additions on small MLB deals or NRI-style acquisitions for spring. But they might be in a prime position to do it all his winter, and honestly, I didn’t see that coming. There’s a load of work to be done before any of the above lines up, but I’d bet the house the lineup is handled and Dipoto and company get the chance to start 2022 with the best team the franchise has fielded in 20 seasons. And if they get that chance I find it difficult to believe they won’t jump.Go!

Looking at the latest baseball odds reflects just two teams left in the dance. Atlanta and Houston have a lot in common. The most telling commonality is pitching. Depth, in particular. Prospect Insider’s Luke Arkins drew it up as well as anyone right here: the Mariners’ 2021 rotation wasn’t equipped to pitch the team to the postseason, let alone through it and to the World Series. This means the club has a lot of work to do. The club received well below-average production from its starting rotation in 2021, and despite the season-long loss of James Paxton, Ljay Newsome, and Nick Margevicius, and the five weeks Marco Gonzales missed, the fact they weren’t the worst rotation in baseball by a wide margin was actually quite impressive. Seattle ranked No. 19 in rotation ERA, No. 22 in FIP, No. 27 in xFIP, No. 23 in K%, No. 13 in BB% and No. 15 in total innings covered. The club, mainly GM Jerry Dipoto, has spoken publicly about adding to the rotation. There seems to be a sentiment, from perhaps inside the organization as well as fans and media, the Mariners simply need one very good starter at the top of their rotation, and they’re set for 2022. It seems the prevailing reason for this sentiment is the presence of pitching prospects, namely George Kirby, Matt Brash, and Brandon Williamson. I completely disagree the Mariners should be seeking one starting pitcher. Dipoto should be looking for two arms, even if neither are multi-year solutions. Why? Because banking on prospects is asking for trouble, and pitching depth is at the top of the list of common denominators among good teams, another topic Arkins covered. If Seattle wants to prove baseball is back, and they want to take a real step forward next season, the rotation must be addressed with aggression, and beyond one upgrade. There are essentially two ways to do that from outside the organization: Free agents and trades. Entering the 2022 season with a rotation of Marco Gonzales, Chris Flexen, Logan Gilbert, the one acquisition we’re assuming, and presumably, either an in-house option such as Yusei Kikuchi, Justin Dunn, or Justus Sheffield, or with a re-signing of Tyler Anderson, isn’t going to inspire confidence, nor is it good enough to compete with the better teams in the American League. And the answer is no if you’re wondering if it’s OK to start the season with a rotation like that because Kirby, Williamson, or Brash may be up relatively early. Counting on consistent, big-league performance from any of the three is not a plan for success, it’s not a plan for winning. That’s a developmental plan. That’s a plan the club has executed three seasons in a row now. And while it went fine for Gilbert this past season, this is when we need to realize why the Mariners believe(d) in Gilbert as much as they did/do, and why that separates him from Kirby, Williamson, and Brash. We can talk about stuff all day — all three of the prospects have enough of it to get outs in the majors. Kirby throws enough quality strikes, too. But none of the three have the combo of stuff, command, and preparedness Gilbert showed the Mariners before he was called up in May, and they aren’t going to gain that between now and next June. That makes those three a bigger performance risk entering 2022 than was Gilbert entering last season, despite my belief Kirby is a better overall prospect than Gilbert ever was. Gilbert was pretty good in 2021, but had his ups, downs and stretches of struggles, and his presence in the projected rotation for ’22 already represents above-standard levels of risk. Seattle has no business simply ‘buying time’ with fringe arms as they wait for the prospects to poke their heads through the minors. The club’s acquisitions this winter should reflect an overall approach to winning next season. No two-month stop-gaps, no ‘holding a spot for’ the prospects. When the kids are ready, they must represent an upgrade to an existing arm in the rotation, or be utilized in a different role. It’s never a bad thing to have more starting pitchers than a club needs at a given time, but there’s no such thing as too much of it. The Mariners should add two quality arms that compete consistently and have a chance to give 160-200 innings next season, even if one of them is simply an average performer  — 4.2-4.3 ERA/FIP/xFIP, i.e., Kyle Freeland, Merrill Kelly, Logan Gilbert, Michael Pineda. Freeland and Kelly should be topics of trade discussion if their clubs are willing, and Pineda should be on a long list of free agents in which the Mariners show interest, as should Jon Gray, Steven Matz, and the obvious top arms on the market. In July, the Miami Marlins engaged a bit in talks for starting pitching (Pablo Lopez, Sandy Alcantara) but nothing materialized, and now with the injury to Sixto Sanchez, and the likely aggressions the Fish show this offseason to start winning, it’s unlikely that changes. For now. Marquez’s presence on the list above is solely to acknowledge his existence. With the Rockies extending Antonio Senzatela, it appears Colorado will attempt to add to what they have, rather than trade off their best pieces and start again. The A’s may very well have a fire sale, and while I don’t typically love the idea of paying the freight on walk-year players, Manaea can pitch. But their entire rotation may be shopped, so stay tuned. Whether or not the Reds make any of their arms available remains to be seen, but I’m a Mahle and Castillo fan, and still see value in Gray and the very team-friendly two years left on his deal. Bieber is an intriguing yet worrisome potential target thanks to a shoulder injury and some questions about whether or not the sticky stuff aided his abilities in the mound to a significant degree, but he’s worth watching this winter, too. Corbin could be a buy-low option for a club that still sees No. 2/3 stuff, but he’s owed $82 million over the next three seasons, and I think the Nationals are more likely to try a retooling rather than cleaning house, anyway, but anything goes this winter. While Seattle attempts to fix a bad offense, increasing the impact provided by their rotation to better match up with their league foes is a must. A must. It’s not going to come from within, it’s not going to happen by magic, and the other competitive clubs aren’t each taking numerous steps back. Those clubs — Astros, White Sox, Rays, Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays — all are better set up in the rotation moving forward, and others, including the Angels and Tigers, are expected to pursue veteran arms, too. While the market isn’t rich with options and trades for impact arms may be too rich for anyone, nothing at all should be off the table. The how really isn’t all that important, however, and the names attached to the arms the club targets aren’t either. But the Mariners aren’t one additional starting pitcher away from properly preparing the roster to meet their 2022 goals. And for the first time in years, their goal of winning isn’t a pipe dreams lined with wafer-thin margins. It’s real, legitimate, and treating it as anything but would be a travesty.Go!

As astutely and accurately demonstrated here by Luke Arkins, the Seattle Mariners struggled to score runs with any reasonable consistency in 2021, and it led to an inordinate — and ultimately unsustainable — rate of close games the club’s bullpen and ‘clutch’ hitting was asked to win. To continue building the roster’s ability to win games, raise the ceiling and reduce the number of games the club is relying on magic, GM Jerry Dipoto has to do just that to his lineup. Today, let’s take a look at the possibilities, but let me say this before we dive into it all: I think just about anything short of elite contracts — long-term, $200 million-plus deals — is in play, including good free agents and significant trades that cost young talent. Also, there are no untouchables. Not on the 26-man roster, not down on the farm. Having said that, it’s highly, highly unlikely Dipoto ends up moving top prospect Julio Rodriguez, or even right-hander George Kirby, the club’s top pitching prospect in over 15 years. I believe anything else is on the table, even if unlikely to come to fruition. Let’s get started. First off, the club isn’t really set at any one position on the field. It may seems like first base is all taken care of with Ty France and perhaps eventually Evan White, but there’s flexibility there, too. It may seem like the outfield is all set and even soon-to-be crowded, but there are question marks all over the position group, including Mitch Haniger‘s defense, Kyle Lewis‘ bat and ability to stay healthy, as well as the development of Jarred Kelenic, and bench depth. Abraham Toro may be the starting third baseman next season. He may be the starter at second. He also could be a regular in the lineup as an everyday-type multi-position player in the mold of Marwin Gonzalez. Keep that in mind. The club obviously needs more production from the infield, though, and I feel like some fans are looking at Toro’s final 2021 numbers and thinking “we need better than this.” While that’s true, it’s a mistake to assume that’s just what Toro is. He’s barely 25 and this season was his first extended shot at big-league pitching. There are a lot of traits he’s displayed that suggest above-average offensive output is in his future. Just like we all know Kelenic has more to offer than his grossly sub par 2021 triple-slash, the same is true for Toro. The club also is not set at catcher, where Tom Murphy is solid yet unspectacular defensively and struggles to produce with the bat, and Cal Raleigh is just getting his feet wet in the majors. Luis Torrens appears set to be treated more like a bat than a potential oft-option behind the dish, so, this position is not set and settled for 2022. Trading Murphy as a tertiary piece in a trade package and adding a more established veteran, or simply pairing a new-addition veteran with Murphy and allowing Raleigh to start 2022 in Triple-A should absolutely be on the table, and I’ll address that below. One more note: There will be names not mentioned that make sense. Again, just about everything is plausible. The combination of potential offensive acquisitions spans as wide as ever for the Mariners. Free agents, trades, and development will all be part of the club’s improvement at the plate in 2022. We just don’t know exactly how that acquisition pie will be sliced. Here we go: Free Agents There’s going to be chatter about the shortstop market until they all sign, but unless one of them wants to go with a one-year, reestablish deal, Seattle shouldn’t engage much. These are likely to land in the elite range, especially Carlos Correa and Corey Seager. Javier Baez is a fine player, but he and Trevor Story both come with a lot more risk for offensive performance than truly elite players should. I’m not sure anyone else, at this stage if things, can be remotely dismissed as a legitimate target for the Mariners. Kris Bryant, 3BThere’s no reason Bryant shouldn’t be on the initial list for Seattle, though there are a lot of reasons to believe this isn’t a target likely to become reality. First, he’s 30 and isn’t going to want to pass on his only shot to make a bundle, so we’re probably talking about at least five guaranteed years, and possibly 6-8. He can handle third base, but also play a passable left or right field, aiding in a club’s flexibility. But Bryant also has a say. Seattle, inherently, has its deterrents, both geographically and as an organization. Sometimes money talks, but clubs have to pick their spots when they simply offer more than everyone else, and Bryant isn’t that player. In fact, that kind of free agent doesn’t exist this winter at all. Marcus Semien, 2B/3BSemien had a huge 2021 and is going to get paid accordingly. Defensively, there’s no reason to believe he can’t still play an average shortstop and if he finds a club that agrees he’s going to price himself out of a lot of places, including Toronto and Seattle. He’s 31, which is a concern on the back end, so anything beyond four years guaranteed is too much of a value squeeze for me, especially considering Semien is selling high and is not likely to ever repeat his 2021 performance. But the lack of market stability — we really don’t know yet how aggressive the market will be; we don’t know how many clubs are going to be willing to spend significant dollars this winter — suggests a chance Semien’s market remains reasonable. We shall see. Nick Castellanos, OFCastellanos is certain to opt out of his deal with the Cincinnati Reds that would pay him $16 million in 2022. He’ll be 30 before the start of the ’22 season and isn’t a very good glove, but the bat is big and plays in any ballpark. I’d be surprised if he has to settle for fewer than four years and $100 million. Michael Conforto, OFConforto has typically hit when healthy, though 2021 has been uneven for him. He’s not yet 29, is a Redmond High School product, and there is room for outfielders, plural, on the Mariners’ roster. Conforto may see an opportunity to come home on a one-year deal, have big season and head back out on the market for a longer-term contract next winter. This is one of my favorite potential targets. J.D. Martinez, Nelson Cruz, Jorge Soler, DHAll three can hit and the first two have long track records. Adding a pure DH to the roster is a bit messy for Seattle with France and Mitch Haniger possibly warranting time there, depending on the makeup of the rest of the roster. Soler can fake it in right field a bit, however, if that becomes important. A DH like one of these three could still fit as one of the final pieces of the offensive puzzle for 2022. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Dipoto express interest in Cruz or Soler. Kyle Schwarber, OF/1B/DHSchwarber has been a man without a position his entire career, but while he’s below-average in the outfield, he’s not awful, and he’s starting to learn first base this season with Boston. The fit may appear a little murky at this point, but like the DHs above, there are scenarios where it shakes out a Schwarber fit with the Mariners. He’s the kind of bat they really like, so if they get beyond the defensively stuff he’s certainly a hitter to track this offseason. Starling Marte, CFMarte had a very good 2021, but isn’t the free agent some seem to think he is. He’s 33 with declining centerfield defense, and anything more than two years guaranteed feels like an unnecessary risk. But the bat, and the defense, may play well enough to warrant genuine interest on a short-term basis. Personally, I feel like Marte will be overpaid in years and AAV. Chris Taylor, 2BTaylor, now 31, has thrived in the Dodgers’ lineup and plays average or better defense at multiple positions, including left field, second base, and third base, and is playable at shortstop and center field, at least for now. I question how well the bat plays moving forward, and how different he might be pitched if not surrounded by stars, so outside of a similar situation I think Taylor is going to be overrated and overpaid. Having said that, he fits, in theory, because there is hitting ability there, and his defensive versatility is highly valuable. Mark Canha, OFCanha had a down 2021 and isn’t a middle of the order bat, but if he’s the low-hanging fruit to help solidify the roster amidst more significant acquisitions, he could be a very good fit on a one-year deal, perhaps keeping the seat warm for a younger bat. Perhaps the key here is Canha’s ability to play some center field, even though it’s not ideal he’s the everyday answer there. Yan Gomes, Christian Vazquez CGomes is a solid-average defender with some punch in his bat — .252/.301/.421 in 2021 — and at 34 is likely headed for a short-term deal this winter. Vazquez is likely to stay in Boston, but he’s an ideal timeshare backstop likely available on a short-term contract. He’s one year off a 115 wRC+ season and two years removed from a 23-HR campaign. Tommy Pham, OFPham, 34 by the time next season starts, had a strange but still productive 2021, and if used as a fourth outfielder still brings good value on a one-year contract. He’s fringe-average defensively, but has average pop, draws walks, and still runs fairly well. He makes contact at an above-average rate, suggesting a chance to bounce back from hitting .229. If Pham, or someone like him, is replacing Dylan Moore, for example, they’re doing it right.Brad Miller, 1B/3B/OFMiller, another former Mariners draftee on the list, has produced 127, 120 and 105 wRC+ marks the past three seasons, despite ordinary batting averages. He has good power from the left side, draws walks, and plays a passable second base and third base, has experience at first base where he’s at least average, and is passable in short stints in left or right field. Freddy Galvis, UTGalvis is a very good utility infielder with defense that fits at second, short, and third, and there’s a little punch in the bat from both sides of the plate. He’d be an average security blanket for the infield spots, led by defense and his ability to make consistent contact at the plate. Jonathan Villar, UTVillar had borderline starter numbers in 2021, but should not be paid like one. Let me repeat: Villar should not be paid like starting-caliber player. The 30-year-old warrants a one-year, stop-gap contract that also fits into utility range, since ideally your regulars are all better hitters with longer futures in the organization. Villar, however, is very interest for Seattle, who may not find two significant upgrades on the infield and could instead bring in one major infield upgrade plus a one-year insurance policy to Toro’s development, knowing Villar can play a satisfactory second, short, and third, and has shown some promise in occasional stints in the outfield over the years. How his market develops will be very interesting after he posted a 105 wRC+ for the Mets this season. Avisail Garcia, OFOne of the more underrated free agents is Garcia, who at 30 just batted .262/.330/.490 with 29 homers for the Milwaukee Brewers, and plays a very solid right field. If Seattle gets to point where moving Haniger to DH — or to another team — becomes a realistic possibility — Garcia could slide into RF, and then move to DH once Rodriguez is ready to take over for the long haul. I’m curious to see where Garcia’s market lands, too. He’s been solid, but it seems like it’s possible he may not be able to do better than two or three years. AJ Pollock, LF — Los Angeles DodgersPollock may opt out of the final two years and $21 million of his deal with the Dodgers, and if he does, toss him into the free agent pile. In fact, it might surprise many if he doesn’t opt out, considering it comes with a $5 million buyout and the market likely gets him the $16 million difference, and then some. He’s not a center field option except in a pinch, but he’s fine in left, and went 131 and 137 wRC+ the last two seasons. He hits lefties better than righties, but produced in 2021 against both. If he’s 2/3 of a timeshare, Pollock makes tons of sense for a contender that needs outfield help, Seattle included. If he doesn’t opt out, there’s a chance the Dodgers dangle him in trade and with a palatable contract there likely will be a taker or two. As long as he’s not the best bat added to the mix, Pollock could make some sense for Seattle in the big picture. Michael A. Taylor, CFThe Mariners need help in center field to improve the defense and perhaps cover for the unavailability of Kyle Lewis (knee), who either may not be able to play center regularly, at all, or the club may choose to make the ask of Lewis a little less-demanding by using him less in the field at all and giving him some DH time. In any case, Taylor, a terrific defender, makes a lot of sense. His overall numbers at the plate aren’t inspiring — .244/.297/.356, 77 wRC+ — but he’s a part-time player who was overexposed by the Royals. Taylor has hit lefties in his career toa .261/.311/.421 clip, and this past season popped a .295/.344/.424 sash against them (110 wRC+). OTHERS: Andrew McCutchen, OF; Eddie Rosario, OF; Adam Duvall, OF; Kevin Pillar, OF; Manny Pina, C, plus unexpected option declines. Trades Seattle isn’t going to stop making sensible trades, including those that appear aggressive in nature, as they move closer toward consistent contention than they have experienced in two decades. It’s plausible the club makes an assertive prospect-for-big-leaguer move this winter that includes one of the club’s better young talents. The farm system is not only in good shape, but it’s growing in depth at a rapid pace, and I’ll reiterate my belief it hasn’t peaked, which means more high-end talent is on its way. Proven plus-level talent costs big, just ask the Blue Jays, who traded two top 40 prospects for eight months of Jose Berrios this past summer, and if the Mariners want to take a significant next step the free-agent route can’t stand alone. Look around. How were the Dodgers built? Lots of homegrown, but they traded for Mookie Betts, Trea Turner, and Max Scherzer. The Astros traded for Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander. The Red Sox traded for Chris Sale, and paid dearly in the form of Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech. The White Sox traded a 24-year-old starting second baseman for Craig Kimbrel. And we all know what the Padres have given up to land Blake Snell, Austin Nola, among others. I have spent  a lot of time the past 20 years helping demonstrate the value of prospects to fans of the Seattle Mariners, and I stand by every word. But I also have reminded everyone who’d listen that trades aren’t about what you give up, it’s about what you get in return. Trading top prospects is a tough decision, and like every other move made in baseball, it’s a wager. There are no guarantees. Dipoto, Justin Hollander and the rest of the baseball folks in the organization are charged with taking the best shots available, and at the right time. Sometimes big trades hurt a bit. Be prepared. That kind of trade is on the table this winter. Jose Ramirez, 3B — Cleveland GuardiansRamirez is a bit of a pipe dream unless and until Cleveland gives indications they’re looking to retool. He’s just now 29, a plus defender at third and a well above-average bat that has toyed with MVP-caliber production since 2017. But Ramirez is signed to a team-friendly deal that extends through the 2023 season, so Cleveland can make another go of it to start 2022, and consider moving Ramirez over the summer. They did make a mistake with Francisco Lindor in hanging onto him too long before trading him, but if Cleveland wants to actually spend big to retain Ramirez there’s no need to trade him at all, but when was the last time that franchise paid big for anyone? And if they’re not going to pay him the $30-40 million a year for 5-plus seasons he’s worth, trading him now makes a lot more sense to waiting for next winter when the club is backed into a corner and gets pennies on the dollar —  just like they did with Lindor. The trade cost would be significant for two years of Ramirez, and there certainly would be numerous clubs interested, namely the Yankees, Dodgers, Blue Jays (especially if they don’t re-up with Semien), Red Sox, Braves, Reds, Phillies, Mets, Tigers, and, yes, the Mariners. Jorge Polanco, Luiz Arraez, 2B — Minnesota TwinsAfter the Twins failed to extend centerfielder Byron Buxton this past summer and traded ace Jose Berrios to Toronto, it’s fair to wonder if Buxton is next on the move, and if Polanco and/or Arraez might be right behind him. Arraez has a second-base bat, bringing a career .313/.374/.403 slash into the offseason. He’s around average defensively and doesn’t make an impact with his legs. His lack of power makes him more of a secondary-level target for a club like Seattle looking for major upgrades, and it’s fair to wonder if Arraez makes any sense at all with Abraham Toro in the fold, despite being a proven bat versus Toro’s raw status. Polanco, however, is a different animal. He’s one of the more underrated hitters in baseball after posting his second wRC+ of 120 or better in each of the last two full seasons. Polanco can manage at shortstop but is a better fit at second and has been solid-average there in 1,000 innings — most of that this past season. But we may be seeing the start of the switch hitter’s prime at the plate, which may warrant a move to third base, too, allowing for more flexibility for a potentially-acquiring club. He’s 28, has 59 homers over his last 1400 at-bats, and has never struck out more the 18.6% rate he posted in 2018, despite a more aggressive approach that has undoubtedly played a role in the growth of his power. Polanco is an above-average runner, and equally dangerous from both sides of the plate. Josh Donaldson, 3B — Minnesota TwinsDonaldson will be 36 this winter, but is still productive, even if he’s not the star bat he once was. At his age, however, and with his history, injuries are a concern, as is the $50 million guaranteed he’s owed through the 2023 season. Any trade out of Minnesota is bound to come with cash, or be a swap of contracts. I present Yusei Kikuchi, who may exercise his $13 million player option. Just a passing thought. There are all kinds of possibilities for the Twins and Mariners to connect on trades. Arraez and Donaldson? Polanco? Polanco and Donaldson? Just one of them? I don’t, however, love the idea of Buxton, in case you’re wondering, because high-profile players with one year remaining tend to cost 25-40% more than that one year is worth. Eugenio Suarez, 3B — Cincinnati RedsSuarez had a bad year at the plate — .198/.286/.428 — but still hit 31 homers and was a monster in September/October — .370/.460/.808, 220 wRC+. He’s fringe-average defensively at third — though he spent nearly 300 innings at shortstop this season. He’s 30, signed through 2024 with a club option for 2025 that if exercised would pay him $48 million over the next four seasons. A bargain, as long as Suarez gets most of his swagger back. He was a four-win player three straight seasons prior to the weirdness that was 2020. A pair of scouts believe Suarez’s conditioning may be part of the problem, but there are lots of reasons to believe he can get back the majority of his mojo, including barrel rate, hard-hit rate, a 100-point drop in batting average on balls in play. Considering there are other players on the roster Seattle might have interest in this winter (stay tuned), Suarez may come up in talks. Brandon Lowe, 2B/3B — Tampa Bay RaysConsidering all the infield talent in the Rays’ system and how the club operates with veterans, Lowe could be available this winter. At 27, he’s coming off a career year that resulted in a .247/.340/.523, 39 homer season. He’s fringy defensively at second, and with the bat exploding I wonder if third base is at all an option, despite an average arm. He’ll swing and miss (27% in 2021), but he’ll also walk (11.1%), and his contract carries him through 2024 at $18 million total, with two club options worth a total of $22 million for 2025-26. If the Rays are willing to discuss Lowe, Seattle should be interested, especially if they think he can handle third base on top of second, giving them even more alignment options with their bats. Bryan Reynolds, OF — Pittsburgh Pirates Reynolds may be as sought after as any player on the trade market this winter if the Pirates make him available. He’s coming off a 142 wRC+ season at age 26, and will not qualify for free agency until after the 2025 season. The Pirates absolutely should start adding around Reynolds, a switch-hitting outfielder some believe could win a batting title in his prime. But who knows what the Pirates will try to do, if anything, so Reynolds remains a topic of trade conversation. Defensively, Reynolds is passable in center for now but belongs in left thanks to a below-average throwing arm and range. If Pittsburgh decides to talk trade with Reynolds, it’s not going to be cheap, despite the fact he’s not a long-term centerfielder. As I stated above, just about anything is on the table, and I’d be remiss if I didn’t remind everyone how creative and sometimes off-the-radar this club goes on a regular basis. So when Dipoto and friends do just that, don’t fret. They’ve proven they know what they’re doing.Go!

Jerry Dipoto has made a lot of trades since being hired as the general manager of the club prior to the 2016 season. Some have been very good. Some have been awful. Some of the good trades have been even swaps. There are a handful of deals we’ll have to wait a little longer to determine its ultimate results. We’ve yet to see the kind of trades Dipoto will have to make to get the team from trending up to playoff contender, but we’ve seen everything else. Here are the worst, best, and some in between. But these are not ranked. I’ll let you do that. WORST SS Chris Taylor to Los Angeles Dodgers for RHP Zach Lee: June 19, 2016 Taylor still had six full seasons of club control remaining at the time of the trade. Lee, a former top prospect, never pitched for the Mariners and has been toiling around in the minors with mixed results in the Rays, Mets, and Diamondbacks organizations since his eight innings with the Padres in 2017. Taylor, who hits free agency this offseason, has been worth 14.8 fWAR, including a 4.8 fWAR season in 2017, his first full season with the Dodgers. This trade serves as the worst of Dipoto’s Mariners career, at least so far. There are some contenders, however. RHP Freddy Peralta, RHP Daniel Missaki, IF Carlos Herrera to Milwaukee for 1B Adam Lind: December 9, 2015 Peralta spent 2014 in rookieball . Lind had one year of control left. The Brewers developed Peralta into the majors in 2018 where he’s been serviceable as a reliever and spot starter, and in 2021 he’s been terrific in 19 starts. He’s on his way to a 4-win season and the Brewers control his contract for two more seasons. LHP Ryan Yarbrough, SS Carlos Vargas to Tamp Bay for Drew LHP Smyly: January 11, 2017 While this one is totally fine in process, it just didn’t work out since Smyly never was healthy for Seattle. Yarbrough has been a useful arm for Tampa Bay since 2018, tallying 5.7 fWAR, including 2.7 in 141.2 innings in 2019 and 1.2 in 114 innings this season. The Rays control his contract for two more seasons. Smyly was coming off Tommy John but ended up missing a second full season in 2018 and hit free agency that winter. RHP Pablo Lopez, OF Brayan Hernandez, RHP Lukas Schiraldi to Miami for RHP David Phelps: June 20, 2017 This one is the top contender to the Lee-Taylor trade, especially with Phelps pitching just 10 games for the Mariners and then requiring surgery that would force him out of 2018 entirely. Hernandez and Schiraldi are out of affiliated baseball, and while the 25-year-old Lopez was below league average over his first two big-league seasons he has been particularly good this season for the Marlins, with two more seasons of club control remaining. RHP Emilio Pagan, IF Alexander Campos to Oakland for 1B Ryon Healy: November 15, 2017 Healy struggled to hit for average for one-plus seasons and was DFA’d after an injury-riddled 2019. He did hit 31 homers in 180 games for Seattle, and Campos is still in Low-A ball at 21, but Pagan has been a madly inexpensive and useful middle reliever — better than that at times —  for the A’s and Padres. RHP JP Sears, RHP Juan Then to New York Yankees for RHP Nick Rumbelow: November 18, 2017 Rumbelow is now out of baseball and struggled to throw strikes in 16 games for Seattle in 2018-19. Sears, now 25, is in Double-A for the Yankees pitching well, but no path to consistent big-league opportunities. Then, who was 17 at the time of the trade, was good in 11 starts for the Yankees rookie club in 2018 before being reacquired by the Mariners a year later. RHP Nick Neidert, RHP Robert Dugger, SS Chris Torres to Miami for 2B Dee Strange-Gordon & $1M international slot money: December 7, 2017 While this trade certainly goes down as a loss, it was a very worthy wager to make at the time, since the reason Dipoto made it was to acquire as much slot money as possible in attempt to land Shohei Ohtani. Torres is out of affiliated ball, Dugger struggled in the big leagues for the Fish and is now back with the Mariners, and Neidert has been knocked around in 10 games in the majors. 1B Logan Morrison, IF Brad Miller, RHP Danny Farquhar to Tampa Bay for RHP Nate Karns, LHP C.J. Riefenhauser, OF Boog Powell: November 5, 2015 While I understood this trade at the time, I didn’t like it because I didn’t see the upside in Powell or Riefenhauser. Miller gave Tampa 2.3 fWAR and a 30-homer season, Morrison posted 3.7 fWAR for the Rays led by a 3.2-win 2017 season. Farquhar struggled in Tampa but Powell, Karns, nor Riefenhauser gave Seattle anything, the latter never throwing a pitch in the organization. Did this trade hurt the club’s future? No, and it actually saveda bit of salary. But it didn’t help the present, either. While Dipoto was simply looking for hidden value and it was worth the risk of the upside of the players going out, getting no long-term pieces in return makes this one a clear loss. BEST RHP Austin Adams, C Austin Nola, RHP Dan Altavilla to San Diego for RHP Andres Munoz, 1B Ty France, C Luis Torrens, OF Taylor Trammell: August 31, 2020 Ah yes, this is the deal when Dipoto took AJ Preller to the woodshed and gave him a whoopin’. Apparently one he asked for, too. France is already a 120 wRC+ bat with more on the way and four years of club control after 2021, and Luis Torrens has refined his game after early-season struggles. Trammell has flashed but struggled overall in the majors, but is just 23 and has added more power potential to his profile. Munoz may make his Mariners debut in September and has HLR potential. The Padres side of this? Well, early it’s been rough. Nola hit just .217/.314/.383 in 18 games after the trade last season, and has played in just 24 games this season, batting .222/.354/.317. Altavilla has made just two appearances this season for having Tommy John surgery in June. He was solid in 8.2 innings last September. Adams has been just OK in 47 games in 2021, posting 0.4 fWAR. He didn’t pitch for Seattle last season prior to the trade and managed just four innings after the deal. The Padres need Nola to give them value over the next four years, but even if he does it’s not likely San Diego justifies the trade package in isolation. RHR Taylor Williams to San Diego for RHP Matt Brash: August 31, 2020 Woodshed. Williams, who is now on the 60-day IL with a knee injury, made one appearance last season for the Padres, then five more this season before he got hurt. But even we assume he was an average middle reliever, Brash’s development this season as a potential mid-rotation starter makes this an easy and significant win for the Mariners. RHP Kendall Graveman, RHP Rafael Montero to Houston for 2B Abraham Toro, RHP Joe Smith: July 30, 2021 Yep, that’s right, this is a coup for the Mariners. I expect Graveman to be good for the Astros for two months and perhaps into October, and I hope and believe they have a good chance to get more out of Rafael Montero — Brent Strom is as good a pitching coach as there is, and Montero has had success in the majors. But, Graveman hits free agency after the season — at which time if they feel like it Seattle can get involved, just like they could if they hadn’t traded him — and Toro looks the part of an everyday bat that can handle second base, a position the Mariners lack internal options. Toro also comes with control through 2025, with team-friendly salaries all the way there, which allows the club to spend money and trade assets on another bat or two, and impact starting pitching. Smith is a rental throw-in, but he’s off to a good start and might be able to hold onto his roster spot the rest of the year. This is a no-brainer win for the Mariners regardless of what Graveman does or when he does it. DH Edwin Encarnacion, cash to New York Yankees for RHP Juan Then: June 15, 2019 The Mariners righted a wrong when they traded Then for Rumbelow two years prior, and Then is developing in High-A this summer, showing mid-90s heat and an above-average slider. He may be a reliever long-term, but he’s added strength to his frame and may hold in a starting role. Encarnacion was pretty good for the Yankees — .249/.325/.531 with 13 homers in 44 games — but Seattle gets a very good arm with a chance to help for several years, and even if it’s entirely out of the bullpen this is a victory deal for Dipoto. LHP Nick Wells, cash to Washington for RHP Austin Adams: May 4, 2019 This one speaks for itself. Adams helped the club get the France-led package from the Padres the following August and Wells, now 25, is pitching in relief in Triple-A for the Nationals. RHP Jesus Ozoria to San Francisco for C Tom Murphy: March 29, 2019 Ozoria, 23, is out of affiliated baseball. Murphy posted 3.2 fWAR in 2019, missed all of 2020 with a knee injury and has been worth a win in 2021 despite a terribly slow start at the plate. He’s under club control for two more seasons, and if he finishes strong at the plate may be a valuable trade piece for the Mariners this winter. 1B Carlos Santana, $6M to Cleveland for $5M, DH Edwin Encarnacion: December 13, 2018 This deal, part of a three-teamer with Tampa, is an extension of the deal that follows in this list, turned into Juan Then, so … SS Jean Segura, LHP James Pazos, RHP Juan Nicasio to Philadelphia for SS J.P. Crawford, 1B Carlos Santana: December 3, 2018 In addition to the Segura-Crawford portion of this transaction, it led to the deal that led to the deal that landed Juan Then. Segura has been fine for the Phillies, posting 5.5 fWAR through August 2. He has two years of control remaining, including a team option for 2023. Crawford has compiled 4.0 fWAR through August 2, and the Mariners control his contract for three more seasons and far more team-friendly costs than Segura. Pazos and Nicasio gave the Phillies next-to-nothing. Nicasio was worth 0.5 fWAR in 2019 and is now on MLB’s restricted list for what’s listed as ‘personal reasons’ after seeing time with the Rangers in 2020. Pazos never pitched for the Phillies. RHP Tommy Romero, RHP Andrew Moore to Tampa Bay for LF Denard Span, RHP Alex Colome: May 26, 2018 Moore struggled in Tampa, came back to Seattle and struggled there and the last time he was seen in pro ball was in one appearance for Class-A Lakeland in the Tigers organization. Romero, now 24, made his way to Triple-A earlier this season, but has so far stalled there in two subpar starts. Still a chance he helps the Rays in some capacity. Span hit .272/.329/.435 for the Mariners for four-plus months and worth a win over replacement. Colome was worth nearly a half a win out of the bullpen and then was trade for Omar Narvaez, who posted 1.8 fWAR for the Mariners in 2019 and was then traded for Adam Hilland Connor Phillips. Phillips is my No. 11 prospect. 2B Robinson Cano, RHP Edwin Diaz, cash to New York Mets for OF Jarred Kelenic, RHP Justin Dunn, RHP Anthony Swarzak, OF Jay Bruce, RHP Gerson Bautista: December 3, 2018 Woodshed. It was an unfair fight, but Brodie Van Wagenen picked it. The Mets covered about half of Cano’s remaining money ($120 million total) and has received 2.6 fWAR from Diaz, and 2.0 fWAR from Cano for their troubles. Even in all his struggles, Dunn has been worth 0.3 fWAR, and Kelenic is just getting started — so far it’s been a struggled, but he just turned 22 and we all know the direction this is headed, regardless of where the kid lands in terms of ceiling. The Mariners released Gerson Bautista, and Swarzak struggled before he was traded to the Braves for Jessie Biddle. The Mets can’t win this deal no matter what Diaz does for them, because essentially, they paid big freight in talent and took on huge money of a risky player in age and availability to do it. For the record, Cano still is owed $48 million over the next two seasons, and $40.5 of that is owed by the Mets. The Mariners, in taking back Jay Bruce and Anthony Swarzak, paid most of their portion of Cano’s money up front. Woodshed. Alex Colome to Chicago White Sox for Omar Narvaez: November 30, 2018 Colome had one year left and was set to make more than $7 million, a figure that made no sense for Seattle to carry in 2019, Year 1 of the big rebuild. Colome essentially turned into Adam Hill and Connor Phillips. Win. SS Rayder Ascanio to St. Louis for RHP Mike Leake, cash, international slot money: August 30, 2017 Ascanio is in Triple-A for the Cardinals, batting .197/.266/.346 and age 25. He’s a fringe minor leaguer at this point. Leake was worth 1.2 fWAR in five starts in September, 2017, and 2.3 fWAR in 2018. He struggled in 2019, but was still worth 1.3 fWAR in 22 starts before being traded to Arizona to be close to family. While Leake was far from an impact acquisition, the Mariners received $15 million cash from St. Louis to help cover the remainder of his salary. Zero risk, medium reward. Win. Cash to San Diego for RHP Nick Vincent: March 30, 2016 Vincent was acquired for essentially nothing and posted 2.7 fWAR at league minimum salaries for three seasons in Seattle. There were times he was their best reliever. IN BETWEEN There are also several deals that appear to be fairly even for now , including the trade that sent James Paxton to the Yankees. Justus Sheffield has yet to get on track, though he still has time. Erik Swanson is now a full-time reliever. Paxton gave the Yankees 3.8 fWAR in two seasons — 3.5 of that in Year 1. Sheffield and Swanson each have four more seasons to provide value, but so far, considering salary — the Yankees paid Paxton $21 million — this is basically a wash so far, with a chance to turn in Seattle’s favor. The deal that swapped two seasons of C Mike Zunino, OF Guillero Heredia and LHP Michael Plassmeyer for OFs Mallex Smith and Jake Fraley might appear a steal for the Rays, but in those two years Zunino hit 13 homers in 118 games and batted .161/.233/.323 and 0.3 fWAR. Zunino’s 2021 season was purchased via free agency. Heredia was worth 0.3 fWAR in 89 games. Plassmeyer never pitched for the Rays, but was traded this season for RHP Matt Wisler, who has been great, posting 0.8 fWAR in 20 games. Wisler has one more year of club control, and is the Rays last hope to gain value of the original trade. Smith didn’t help Seattle at all (-0.6 fWAR) over two years, but after intermittent stints worth nearly -1.0 fWAR, Fraley is rolling up value and is now a net 0.2 and counting. Fraley’s club control runs through 2026. The November 2016 trade that sent RHP Taijuan Walker and SS Ketel Marte to the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for SS Jean Segura, OF Mitch Haniger, and RHP Zac Curtus is edge Seattle at this point, but not a wide margin. That could change, however, in either direction. Marte has one more season of organic control remaining has given Arizona 12.0 fWAR thus far. Walker got hurt and ended his Snakes career with 32 starts and 2.6 fWAR. To date, Walker and Marte have cost the D-Backs $26.9 million, including the entirety of Marte’s 2021 salary. Seattle, however, did well, too, getting 6.6 fWAR from Segura in two seasons, paying Segura $15.8 million total, whole netting 10.3 fWAR for $7.1 million. That’s 16.9 fWAR at $22.9 million versus Arizona’s 14.6 fWAR at $26.9 million. But wait. Seattle traded Segura to the Philadelphia Phillies in a deal that returned JP. Crawford. Crawford’s 4.0 fWAR through August 2 at $3.2 million, we’re already at $26.1 million and 20.0 fWAR for the Mariners. Marte’s two remaining seasons in Arizona have to be awfully good to catch the Mariners in this trade, and because Haniger has a year left and Crawford has three, it’s difficult seeing this ending up remotely close. But it’s far from a blowout, and injuries (Walker’s TJ, Haniger’s core issues and Marte’s injuries this season) have impacted the results. Another one worth keeping an eye on in the trade that sent OF Tyler O’Neill to the St. Louis Cardinals for LHP Marco Gonzales. O’Neill has had a great year in 2021, posting 2.2 fWAR, getting him up to 4.0 fWAR in parts of four season in the Cardinals organization. O’Neill is under control for three more seasons after 2021. Gonzales, however, has a large head start. He’s posted 9.5 fWAR for the Mariners since the trade, and has two more organic control seasons remaining after 2021. We’ll see on this one, but O’Neill is going to have to be awfully good to make this a race. I don’t see it.Go!

Mariners fans have long been tired of the press for patience. And who can blame them? It’s been 20 years since their home team made the postseason, and 18 since it won 90 or more games. But when a group led by John Stanton purchased the Mariners in 2016 the deal brought new hope. Five years later and the short leash fans gave the new group is gone. And it should be. When Jerry Dipoto took over as GM and VP of Baseball Operations prior to the 2016 season, it was clear what needed to happen. The organization needed a rebuild. A foundational top to bottom, left to right, tear-it-down, build-it-up. The problem at the time was the roster was aging, expensive and had two mega contracts, which complicated starting a rebuild, and Stanton may not have liked the idea of spending, in the form of covering portions of contracts, to start over in 2016. So Dipoto and company began their tenure running the club in ‘do-what-you-with-what-you-have’ mode. And they did. It was a mediocre team at best at the time and continued to be the first two years. Once 2018 hit, a few things began to pan out and the team win 89 games. I’ve read a lot of criticism about the club’s decision to rebuild after winning 89 games. Some of the reasons I’ve heard and read include “they were an 89-win team, build on THAT,” and “if you can’t take an 89-win team and get to 95 from that you’re a terrible GM.” But the fact is, it was the perfect time to turn it over: Robinson Cano was 35, had half his $240 million contract remaining, and had just come off a suspension for testing positive for banned substances. But he performed well after the suspension, so if a team was willing to take on a good portion of the $120 million left, do it and don’t look back. Edwin Diaz had an elite, and unrepeatable, season as the club’s closer. He’d yet to hit arbitration status and there were four years left of contract control. If there’s one thing we’ve learned about relievers over the years, it’s their insane level of volatility. Feliz Hernandez’s contract had two more guaranteed years, rather than five (at the start of Dipoto’s tenure) The club was out from under the contract of Nelson Cruz after the ’18 season, too, which isn’t a reason to start a rebuild, and it wasn’t a hindrance to house the deal it was a bargain, but having Cruz, Cano, Kyle Seager, and Hernandez was a great hamper to rebuilding, and was actually a bit of an opportunity to see what the roster could do, despite having very little opportunity to go add significant pieces (see: near-empty farm system, available financial assets stretched to a top-10, $175M payroll. Waiting and trying to make the most of the 2018 roster with an aging Hernandez, Cano, and Seager pulling away from his prime, no farm system, no significant financial flexibility — seriously, that roster wasn’t one $15 million player away, it was two stars and three average players (maybe $50-60 million proven players) from being a 95-plus win team — would have been a disaster. They would have lost out on the chance to take advantage of Diaz’s career year — it’s still by far his best year and may always be that way — shed a large chunk of Cano’s remaining contract, maximize the value of James Paxton and Mike Zunino, who each had two years of control remaining (had it been four, keeping both may very well have made sense), and most of all rebuilding the foundation itself — the farm system. Passing on the opportunity to do any or all of the above would have been a fireable offense for any GM and a senseless preference for an ownership. It takes commitment and financial guts to approve such a plan. At the time, the ownership was worthy of applause. Well, that’s faded, if not gone altogether, and not solely because the club still isn’t winning — this season was always marked as the corner, not the year the team had a great chance to win — but because the ownership has done nothing but shoot itself in the foot, even since the rebuild began two and a half years ago. First, by acting like a corporation that doesn’t care enough about its employees, when they cut their pay because the team’s profits were hit by the pandemic, and let it impact their plans to build a winning team — more on that in a minute. That was an opportunity to stand out in a positive way, both in the community and among ownerships in baseball. Failed. Then came the Kevin Mather fiasco. Not only did the president of the baseball team make racist comments, which is bad enough all by itself, he spit on a very good and loyal player, and admitted the club was manipulating the service time of prospect Jarred Kelenic, a practice long deployed in Major League Baseball, but never one that was carelessly and braggadociosly stated to those outside an organization. Mather, at the time, was a minority owner on top of his president role. But rather than the club acting swiftly, removing Mather from the role, and starting the process of booting him from ownership, he was allowed to resign, and Stanton, in a press conference the following Monday after Mather’s comments on a Zoom call to the Bellevue Rotary club were made public, would not even answer the question of whether he would have fired Mather had he not resigned. The owner of the team did nothing to stand up for Julio Rodriguez, Seager, Kelenic, and at the end of the day, for a franchise that cannot afford further embarrassment. Perhaps Stanton lacks the ability to serve as the mouthpiece. I’ll grant him the benefit of the doubt there. But he’s the owner of the team. He can say whatever he wants whenever he wants, and he hasn’t been heard from in any meaningful capacity since. Not on the future of the on-field product, not on the Mather situation, not on further steps the organization has taken to create the right culture for people, including players. What we have learned in recent months is Mather, long before his appalling comments, meddled in baseball operations when he nixed original payroll plans for the 2020-21 offseason, leaving Dipoto to stand pat over the winter rather than start adding significant pieces to help the club turn the corner. Dipoto has been calling ’21, in his own words, the corner year since the rebuild began in November 2018, and here it is time to start executing toward that and Mather, the money guy, chose money, derailing Dipoto’s plans and essentially pushing the timeline backward. But this is on Stanton. It’s on Stanton for not sticking with his commitment to winning baseball, something he has said publicly on numerous occasions, and it’s on Stanton because he asked fans to be patient, and then, asked them for more time, because, well, money. No. Just… no. These are not the actions of a committed ownership. And now, to fans, Dipoto’s words ring hollow if he doesn’t deliver. If you’re Dipoto here, you’re not happy at all. We can argue all day about whether Dipoto can execute as successful a second half of the rebuild process as he has the first half, but none of it matters if the ownership doesn’t stick to its own commitments. Or we need to define the word ‘commitment’ to Mr. Stanton, just so we’re all clear. noun1. the state or quality of being dedicated to a cause, activity, etc. “the company’s commitment to quality” Ownership committing to winning, and staying committed, does not mean it has to spend until they win, or they’re not committed. It means being competitive with payroll. Taking risks when the club’s baseball people see an opportunity. It means thirsting for winning like the fans. And that was Stanton’s selling point as majority owner; he’s a fan. The man keeps score. The dude gets distracted at business meetings because he’s checking scores. True stories. However, the company, the Seattle Mariners, have broken their commitment at least once already under Stanton in terms of putting a winner on the field. Commitments don’t come with conditions. That’s why they’re commitments. After all that’s occurred the past three years — and really the past nine months — Stanton still has an opportunity to climb out of this as clean as Andy Dufresne. But rather than landing on a beach overlooking the blue of the Pacific, such commitment leads to what sports owners like more than anything — money. Literally, remaining committed to winning will make owners even more money. They just don’t want to take risks. That has to change. At the end of the day, the financial backing must be available to Dipoto to expect him to finish what he started. Immediately. Now. It’s difficult enough to build good baseball rosters. There are 29 other teams trying to beat you at the same game, after the same goals, after the same players. Some have committed owners. Those that don’t fail over and over. You know the teams on both ends of this equation: The Los Angeles Dodgers, Washington Nationals, New York Yankees, New York Mets, San Diego Padres, St. Louis Cardinals, Houston Astros, and a few others, have been committed to winning over the last several years. Others are joining or rejoining the party. Most of those teams are winning or have won a lot in recent years. And commitment isn’t about splurging for $230 million payrolls every year, or ever. The Cardinals are consistently ranked between eighth and 14th in payroll. The Astros rank No. 5 this season and last, but have ranked eighth, ninth, and 17th during their run to World Series prominence. YEAR PAYROLL RANK 2022 $33.700M — 2021 $92.325M 25 2020 $112.751M 23 2019 $152.527M 14 2018 $170.971M 10 2017 $174.721M 12 2016 $171.340M 10 2015 $144.985M 13 Heck, the Mariners themselves were 12th in 2017, 10th a year later, and 13th in 2019. And while there’s no “get back to this number and it’s real commitment” it is “get back to the plan” and especially “let Jerry cook.” Put the plan, financially speaking, back in motion. Today. Not tomorrow. Today. If Dipoto (and his lieutenants) has proven anything to team ownership, it’s his ability to be trusted with payroll. He’s cleaned house, has proven adept at working markets with the best in baseball, and has proven he can identify talent, from the amateur ranks through long-time big leaguers. His efforts have protected this ownership’s financial risk for five-plus years now. Time to flip the script. Owners can drive their way to more money. They’re billionaires. They’ve done it before — they do it in their sleep. But owners have never steered teams to winning. Baseball people do that, and it’s time Stanton hands the reins back to his baseball people, led by Dipoto, and sit back and enjoy the ride like the rest of us. But things need to move in this direction quickly or even more fans are going to permanently jump ship. They don’t have another 20 years. They may not have another 20 minutes. And if Stanton doesn’t think Mariners fans will jump ship and hop on the bandwagon of other sports teams in the city with their heads, their hearts, and their wallets, or even toward a potential MLB franchise in Portland, he’s sorely mistaken. The ownership of this baseball team must step up. With their words, with their actions, and with their wallets. The opportunity to be different remains. It’s not too late. It’s never too late be better. To be the outlier in Major League Baseball. To be a place people want to work. To be a place players want to play. To be the team fans want to support. This ownership still has a chance to do right by Julio Rodriguez and Jarred Kelenic, and to honor the patience of the fan base, by sticking to their own commitment to winning. And there’s no time like the present.Go!