Prospect Insider - ZiPS says M's terrible again

ZiPS says M's terrible again

By Alex Carson

By 02-28-2012

Baseball Think Factory last week rolled out the first general release of the ZiPS projections they do every year. I ran through the Seattle Mariners projected opening day lineup and potential bench to see how the boys are projected to do this season. Keep in mind, these projections are done by thousands of simulations on a computer.

The computer software doesn't know that Ichiro has a new stance. It doesn't know how much Eric Wedge will tinker with platoons. It doesn't know how long or short Chone Figgins' leash is, it doesn't know how much an aging player will decline or how much a young player will develop ... it doesn't know a lot.

It's still interesting enough to me to compile the list below and share. I just grabbed slash lines, wOBA, and a couple popular counting stats.

The M's scored 556 runs a year ago and their best hitter was probably a young bat, rather than a veteran, so take these as such.

ZiPS Calls the Mariners terrible again
Player	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	HR	RBI
ChoneFiggins	.242	.323	.305	.285	2	26
Dustin Ackley	.261	.348	.410	.336	14	55
Ichiro Suzuki	.278	.317	.354	.298	6	43
Justin Smoak	.231	326	.376	.312	15
Jesus Montero	.257	.322	.438	.331	21	68
Mike Carp	.252	.317	.414	.320	21	73
Franklin Gutierrez	.248	.299	.358	.293	11	52
John Jaso	.249	.336	.359	.312	5	32
Brendan Ryan	.245	.303	.322	.281	3	33
Miguel Olivo	.225	.263	.360	.276	14	49
Casper Wells	.219	.293	.403	.302	15	34
Carlos Guillen	.245	.314	.380	.304	6	25
Kyle Seager	.267	.323	.372	.306	8	57

From Churchill
Like Alex said above, it's a system that does not include the human element, so it doesn't know that Smoak and Gutierrez missed time with medical issues, nor does it have any clue about the development of young players.

That system is also more wrong than it is right, so I prefer to take these as a small part -- a very, very small part -- of how to figure out what can be expected from each player. This much more likely to be correct with veteran, established players.

zips-says-m\'s-terrible-again

Comments
The following 15 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: docsmith on 02-28-2012 03:24:56
Actually, aren't some of those numbers better than last year? Maybe it just feels like it.

But just checking and it would be an increase for Figgins, slight decrease for Olivo, good sized jump for Gutierrez, slight tick up for Ichiro....and as for the young players, it makes sense that they will be difficult to project. For example, with Ackley, it looks like they have his BABIP coming down ~40 pts, hurting his BA, but have his OBP the exact same...whatever.

But thanks for the update.

2. By: Mekias on 02-28-2012 06:01:00
That would be a pretty horrible year from the M's hitters. I was 100% sure following 2010 that it was a complete aberration and there was no way that many players could continue to have such career worst years. Then 2011 came along. Almost unbelievably things got even worse.

I thought we were snake-bitten for awhile. How many new players have came to Seattle and had horrible years with the bat? It feels like the vast majority fail miserably with us. Was Russell Branyan the only new guy to have great success with the M's? Maybe we can include Ackley in this but park factors don't even seem to begin to account for our poor success with hitters. Maybe the effect of playing so many games here makes hitters (especially right-handed ones) depressed.

No wonder we can't get free agent hitters to come here. Look at what Safeco did to Adrian Beltre. He might have been a Hall of Famer if he didn't spend 5 of his prime years here.

3. By: rightwingrick on 02-28-2012 07:10:12
Contest for best projections????

Mine:
C/DH Montero .250BA .320OBP 24HR 75 RBI
C Olivo .225 .295 12 55
1B Smoak .255 .335 26 90
2B Ackley .280 .340 13 65
3B Figgins .255 .345 5 85runs 35SB
SS Ryan .235 .315 2 65runs
OF Ichiro .315 .355 10 70RBI 30SB
OF Gutierrez .265 .320 14 65RBI
OF Carp .260 .320 22 75RBI

M's record: 79-83

4. By: VikingArthur on 02-28-2012 10:26:11
Ackley at .261? Laughable.

Smoak at .231? Only slightly less absurd.

Here are my predictions to piggyback on RWRick.

Montero - .270 .340 26hr 89 rbi
Olivo - .210 .280 10 34
Smoak - .265 .335 25 85
Ackley - .305 .375 15 70
Figgins - .260 .340 80 runs 30 sbs
Ryan - .255 .300
Ichiro - .300 .350 12 80
Gutierrez - .255 .310 18 68
Carp - .265 .335 25 75

M's record - 82-80

5. By: rjfrik on 02-28-2012 12:26:31
Here are mine.

C Montero - .288avg .331obp 27hr 91rbi
1b Smoak - .279avg .349obp 28hr 93rbi
2b Ackley - .301avg .368obp 18hr 70rbi 95runs 22sb
SS Ryan - .248avg .312obp 6hr 57runs
3B Figgins - .284avg .353obp 105runs 38sb
LF Wells - .263avg .321obp 20hr 62rbi
CF Franky - .266avg .323obp 16hr 66rbi
RF Ichiro - .312avg .389obp 13hr 88rbi 89runs 41sb
DH Carp - .271avg .333obp 23hr 77rbi

M's record - 84-78

6. By: Mackie on 02-28-2012 12:44:21
Here's what I think:

C Montero - .265avg .340obp 21hr 75rbi
1b Smoak - .251avg .340obp 25hr 85rbi
2b Ackley - .279avg .355obp 10hr 58rbi
SS Ryan - .239avg .295obp 3hr 30rbi
3B Figgins - .222avg .300obp 85runs 25sb
LF Wells - .258avg .312obp 16hr 54rbi
CF Gutierrez - .235avg .307obp 12hr 45rbi
RF Ichiro - .288avg .350obp 8hr 60rbi 89runs 35sb
DH Carp - .280avg .340obp 22hr 81rbi

Others
3B Seager - .249avg. .315obp 7hr 41rbi
C Jaso - .260avg. .345obp 6hr 29rbi
C Olivo - .215avg. .267obp 12hr 38rbi
SS Kawasaki - .245avg. .315obp 0hr 15rbi
UT Guillen - .240avg. .300obp 9hr 27rbi

That guess on Figgins is for if he's here the whole season (and I don't believe he will be).

My glasses aren't as rosy as some of yours... I'm thinking 77-85. But there will be noticeable improvements throughout the roster!

7. By: VikingArthur on 02-28-2012 14:19:26
Wow RJ... if the lineup do what you are projecting I think we could potentially contend. That would be a very solid lineup. I think if we got that kind of production we would be a 90 win team.

8. By: dewey on 02-28-2012 14:48:08
Im not real up to date on the stats world but alot of people put faith in WAR and VORP but none in zips is there a big diffrence? Our is it that they dont favor the Mariners that people dont believe them? I have no clue thats why im asking.

9. By: Alex Carson on 02-28-2012 16:05:49
@dewey - WAR and VORP are results. They're similar in concept but have different formulas. At a 10,000 foot level they are saying that Player X was worth 5 wins above a replacement player last season. These can be projected like any other stat.

ZiPS is a projection system. They use the Diamond Mind simulator from ImagineSports to simulate thousands of seasons considering a player's attributes. The result is the table above. I merely plucked a few choice stats -- but not all of them.

10. By: Edman on 02-28-2012 16:21:44
Eh.....I've seen many of these projections be wrong. It's pure guess, applied to a simulator. Might as well play MLB on your PSP.

Interesting? Perhaps. Valuable? Not likely, unless you know ahead of time how players will actually perform. Too many unknowns on this club to even consider it valuable.

11. By: dewey on 02-28-2012 18:12:16
Thanks Alex lets hope there wrong

12. By: rjfrik on 02-28-2012 18:29:47
Viking,

I guess I'm more optimistic then most. I think we can be one of the more improved teams in the league if everything breaks right. Obviously my prediction is things break right for our hitters. We shall see. I hope I'm right.

13. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-28-2012 20:22:32
For the record, there is no contest.

14. By: rightwingrick on 02-28-2012 22:45:34
That's too bad. I heard you were going to take the winner to Don and Charlie's in Phoenix next year during Spring Training, buy them 2013 season tickets on the 3B line for four, and get them Heathcliff Slocumb's autograph! Shucks.

15. By: rth1986 on 02-29-2012 02:40:24
Never understood why projection systems hate Ackley so much. I'd be shocked if he hit under .270 this year. I'd feel pretty safe pegging him around .285 or so. But it's clear he has the potential to be a .300 hitter with his advanced approach, good contact skills and line drive swing.

Just for fun, here are my projections:

Figgins .240avg, .320obp, 35 sb (if he actually got the whole season)
Ackley .285avg, .365obp, 12 hr, 15 sb
Ichiro: .290avg, .335obp, 7 hr, 30 sb
Smoak .260avg, .340obp, 24 hr
Montero .280avg, .330obp, 23 hr
Carp .270avg, .335obp, 24 hr
Gutierrez .265, 10 hr, 20 sb
Wells .240avg, .310 obp, 15 hr
Ryan .250, whatever...
all the rest...meh

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