| By Alex Carson |  | By 12-05-2012 |
We're in the third day of the MLB Winter Meetings from Nashville, Tennessee. The Seattle Mariners have been super active, checking in on just about every available hitter on the market as well as trade options.
This could be the day that some moves start to happen for the club. Keep in mind, though, these meetings are often where the framework for deals are laid. We all remember the Cliff Lee winter and the story of how that deal developed.
Feel free to discuss any rumors, deals or anything else flying around in Nashville today.
9:12 PM | In or Out
The M's have been linked to just about every bat on the market and the signing of Jason Bay to a one-year contract isn't going to eliminate any of them from that is on their radar. Here's a list of the free agent and trade-available hitters and whether or not the M's are still open to or trying to acquire them. After the yes or no is a number, on a scale of 1-10 (10 being of the highest of likelihood, 1 almost no chance or zero chance):
Nick Swisher, OF/1B -- Yes | 2
Swisher still prefers a winner, first and foremost, plus is very much preferring California. The Dodgers, Angels and Giants do not appear to have room, either on the roster or in terms of payroll (Giants), and there are no indications Padres are in the market for a spendy veteran.
The chance Swisher "settles" for Seattle appear very slim, despite their being no obvious place for him to land, though Texas -- if they don't re-sign Josh Hamilton and instead trade for Justin Upton -- makes a lot of sense. In essence, the Rangers could have Swisher and Upton for $25-30 million per season over the next three years, about what Hamilton is likely to make per year by himself.
Michael Bourn, CF -- Yes | 3
Bourn isn't exactly a "bat," but the M's have had talks with his agent and if they do not feel it's going to happen on two outfield hitters, Bourn could be their backup plan. It would likely mean Franklin Gutierrez is traded, and also could mean the team will make a deal for a first baseman, rather than two outfielders.
Bourn is still a better fit in Texas, Cincinnati or Philadelphia, and I expect he'll end up in one of those cities.
Justin Upton, RF -- Yes | 1
The Rangers are by far the favorites to land Upton because they have given indications they are willing to move Elvis Andrus to get him. The Mariners would still like to get Upton, but most scenarios, even the 3-and-4-team scenarios, Upton ends up in Texas or Cleveland.
Michael Morse, 1B/DH -- Yes | 5
The Nationals may shop Morse aggressively if they land Adam LaRoche, but it may cost them a young bullpen arm and B prospect. Not sure Morse makes a lot of sense since he's even bad at first base, but he's cheap. The biggest problem is he's signed only through 2013.
Adam LaRoche, 1B -- No | 0
I'm told the Mariners' interest in LaRoche was never more than tire-kicking because of the three-year demands. If a team gets him for two years, it'll be Washington. The Mariners have moved on from this idea.
Billy Butler, DH -- Yes | 2
The Mariners will not give up on the idea of Butler until he's either traded to another team or the Royals fix their starting pitching situation without trading Butler.
Jason Kubel, DH/OF -- Yes | 2
The M's are apparently lukewarm on Kubel, like they appear to be on almost every left-handed bat out there. With Kubel, I don't blame them.
Josh Hamilton, OF -- Yes | 4
Hamilton prefers Texas and is probably willing to take a little less money to stay there, but the Rangers may push themselves out of his market by acquiring Upton and right-hander Zack Greinke. If that occurs, the Mariners' top competitor for Hamilton is likely to be the Boston Red Sox.
Grady Sizemore, OF -- No | 0
Sizemore is not on the club's radar and isn't expected to sign with anyone for awhile, so things can change. It seems, however, the M's have their buy-low bat for the winter in Bay.
Justin Morneau, 1B -- No | 0
The Twins are not willing to talk about moving Morneau at this point, likely because it'd be selling low. They see a reemergence in 2013, and an opportunity to get more for him in July than they can now.
Josh Willingham, DH/OF -- Yes | 1
Minnesota is focused on adding pitching and don't mind taking on prospects, as they showed in the Denard Span trade. The price for Willingham is very high and talks have yet to heat up in the least. If they do, it's likely to occur after Swisher and Hamilton sign and Upton is traded.
Wil Myers, OF -- Yes | 1
The Mariners seem to like Myers, but don't love him across the board and the Royals may have better options than trading Myers for Tiajuan Walker or a package starting with one of the M's top pitching prospects.
Kansas City is hell bent on adding a proven starter, which is why we keep hearing the names of James Shields and Jeremy Hellickson.
The latest on the multi-team deal for Upton
Turns out the M's are the fourth team in some of he 4-team scenarios with Texas, Arizona and Cleveland, but Ken Rosenthal's report Wednesday night suggests the Mariners aren't all that giddy about helping the Rangers get Upton and landing Derek Holland in the process.
I think they should absolutely help the Rangers get Upton if they feel they are Hamilton's clear No. 2 choice.
From what I am told, however, these group-deal proposals varied ten-fold and the M's wouldn't be dealing Walker or a premium prospect package just to land Holland. More players would be involved and it may set up another deal.
It's been suggested to me that the M's could take Holland, package him with Brandon Maurer, and pick Butler or Myers out of KC. If Butler is the move, then flip Jesus Montero to the Yankees for Curtis Granderson in his contract year.
Now THAT is interest. Not perfect, but interesting.
- Jason A. Churchill
Things seem a bit quiet for the Mariners right now, but that's likely because they were linked to literally everyone yesterday. Multiple media types have reported that the M's remain "in" on all the guys they were chasing yesterday.
As far as a reunion goes, the Washington Nationals seem sure that they'll re-sign Adam LaRoche. If this happens, Mike Morse will become expendable. The Mariners have been working this angle all along in the event he does become available.
We all remember Morse's exploits in the outfield during his tour of duty in Seattle. The skills haven't improved with age, but he could give the team some starts out there and possibly some time at first base. They'd mostly be after his offensive improvements, of course.
Whether Morse can stay healthy or add enough versatility for the club remains to be seen. My speculation would be that Morse -- like Michael Bourn -- is a fallback if the club doesn't land one of the bigger name bats they covet.
- Alex Carson
December 5, 2012: 12:00 PM | Mariners sign Jason Bay
With the M's agreeing to a deal with Jason Bay, the consensus reaction from fans on Twitter is concern that this is one of the "big" gets for the winter. It's not.
This deal, despite reports that it will carry guaranteed money into seven figures for Bay, in no way changes the club's stance on Josh Hamilton, Justin Upton, Nick Swisher or any other player they have shown interest in to this point.
If Zack Greinke signs in Texas, the M's may become the favorites for Hamilton. Swisher's market has sunk the way it needed to for Seattle to become a legitimate landing spot for him and if and until Jason Kubel is traded, Upton's top three destinations include the Mariners, despite his having them on his no-trade list.
The four-way deal reported by Buster Olney Tuesday is not dead, but there has been no progress and no word on the fourth team. The third team is the Royals.
- Jason A. Churchill
More from Alex:
As Jason touched on, the M's might be giving Bay more than just the league minimum in this deal.
However, the always awesome Ryan Divish reports, via sources, that the rumors of the deal being for seven figures is false.
Don't worry too much about this, though. If the M's gave Bay $1 million, it's not so much of their budget that they can't go get more pieces. If it's for lower, we can all put our torches away and look at this for what it is -- easily disposable depth.
The biggest concern I have is the use of a 40-man roster spot. We'll see how this all shakes out.
- Alex Carson
December 5, 2012: 10:19 AM | Billy Butler off the board?
Some food for thought this morning, as Kansas Royals Manager Ned Yost claims that Billy Butler hasn't been discussed as a trade candidate.
I don't know that I buy it, but there you go. I haven't been amongst the crowd that favors a Butler trade anyhow, as it creates more of a roster dilemma than it solves. I believe the team needs outfield help far more than a new DH.
- Alex Carson
December 5, 2012: 9:45 AM | M's Payroll and outfield needs
Jon Heyman of CBS Sports tweeted that the Mariners payroll will go into the $90 million range. This is, of course, something we've expected for some time.
What can the club do with that payroll? Josh Hamilton may become more of an option if the Texas Rangers swing a deal to land Justin Upton but that doesn't mean he's going to come cheap. The Baltimore Orioles, for example, could jump into the fray.
Jason Kubel likely stays in Arizona if Upton departs, so the focus for outfield hungry teams would then move to Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn. We hear the Mariners look at the latter as a secondary option if they don't get the thump they desire.
- Alex Carson
winter-meetings-day-3-live-blog
Comments
The following 58 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: Notorious DAD on 12-05-2012 10:20:01 I like Bourn, but I worry about him long term and would much rather have Swisher's versatility. That said, to have them both would be highly awesome. |
| 2. By: sexymarinersfan on 12-05-2012 10:24:47 It sounds as if teams are just using the M's as leverage to get better deals out other ball clubs. Why should we even bother to negotiate? I understand we need hitters, but if the market is just playing us right now, isn't better to sit back and develop our own talent and make trades than to drive up the prices for next years crop of FA talent? |
| 3. By: baseballman on 12-05-2012 10:28:58 RE 2: What makes you say that? I haven't read anywhere that the Mariners have been deeply involved with talk with anyone only to get shafted at the end. Unless I missed something. I guess with the twitter age of sports reporting it can seem that way, but every team seems to be involved in every trade and FA. Don't think it's about teams/FAs using the Mariners as leverage. I don't see that at all. And no we can't afford to just sit tight this year. We need to make major moves this off season. |
| 4. By: Jerry on 12-05-2012 10:29:20 I don't like Bourn. Seems like a very strong bust candidate, and doesn't fit the M's needs very well. Plus, he would cost the M's their first round draft pick. If the M's are resigned to punting that draft pick, I think that Josh Hamilton and Nick Swisher are far better options. Both are better hitters and fit the M's needs more than Bourn. That said, I'm still hoping the M's can make some good moves that don't involve losing the #12 overall draft pick. The one thing the M's do well is acquire talent through the draft. They should be stockpiling picks, not giving them up. |
| 5. By: Jerry on 12-05-2012 10:44:45 RE 3: Teams play other teams off each other all the time. That is why half the "rumors" are just BS that teams and agents put out to drive up the value of their assets. If they didn't, none of these "rumors" would be out in the public. Why else would agents and teams leak information? Second, the M's don't NEED to make major moves. They need to make smart moves. Making a huge trade or free agent signing just to make a splash is idiocy. That was Bavasi's MO. Having money is nice, but if you blow it all on bad contracts, what good does it do? The M's aren't going to do nothing, but it's better to sit tight than make dumb moves. All trades and free agent signings come with risk, but teams tend to make bad decisions when they act out of desperation. You are implying that they MUST do something BIG. That is how you end up with contracts like Jayson Werth, Carl Crawford, Jason Bay, and John Lackey. Or, drawing on the M's recent history, Carlos Silva and Richie Sexson. Honestly, I'd rather see the M's add complementary players in free agency, and rely more on the draft and player development for core players. Then, they can use their money to lock up their own talent instead of paying premium prices in free agency. Like they are doing with Felix. |
| 6. By: Edman on 12-05-2012 10:45:53 Drafting 1-5 overall, is not the same as drafting #12, in regard to talent. It's still a good pick, but isn't necessarily a great pick. I'd hate to give the pick up, but I wouldn't lose sleep over it, either. Jack and Tom have a pretty good record of finding value picks later in the draft. The problem with all the information on the internet, is there are a bunch of reporters trying to out-scoop the others. I'm not really sure how involved the M's are with trying to sign Bourn. Much of what we here amounts to speculation. |
| 7. By: baseballman on 12-05-2012 11:02:51 Jerry, When did I ever say they needed to make a splash just to make one? I didn't so don't act like I did. Never did I say anything about making a "splash" Last year, Pineda for Montero was a major move. The Putz trade was a major move. Trading for Cliff Lee was a major move. Trading for Choo, Upton etc would be a major move. Signing Hamilton to a 4 year deal is a major move. I didn't say we needed to sign Hamilton to a 10 year deal to make sure he comes here or that we should gut the farm system to acquire 1 player. So I'll say again, the Mariners need to make a major move this off season. |
| 8. By: maqman on 12-05-2012 11:12:51 Bourne has more value to some other teams and not as much to the M's. Given the market he's not a good choice IMO. Swisher just might turn out to be a fit, depending on his cost and the way things shake out. Bay and Ibanez might be cheap but not effective. I'm guessing the Yankees will bring back Eric Chavez but if they don't he might be worth a look as a bargain buy. Signing Felix now is a good idea, player prices are going up with the new media money, he won't be any cheaper next year or after his current contract runs out. Plus he's worth more here than anywhere else. I wouldn't hate to see the M's get Dickey, he could be a worthwhile trade target. I'd love watching the Texicans and Angels swing and miss his knuckler. |
| 9. By: rotoenquire on 12-05-2012 11:13:52 Bourn is a player who really is all about his legs that put him above a 4th OF on most teams. Take away his speed and u don't have the player u will be paying for right now 1 or 2 years from now. Granted there is that rare player who keeps the wheels later in their careers. However that is the exception and not the rule. I am still of the belief u get good pieces now and go for the big dollar guys next year. Been saying that all along and as such guys the M's should target. B. McCarthy SP, B. Revere, J.P. Howell. Howell and McCarthy are free agents and should be easy signs. Revere has been said to be up for grabs and I would trade one of Hultzen or Paxton straight up for him much like the Denard Span deal. Solving or leadoff and CF concerns for some time at a decent price. This was a week FA class and people are overpaying to get what little there is. If u do any large deals or signings Hamilton or Ellsbury who is also said to be up for trade bait if Swisher signs with the Red Sox. |
| 10. By: rotoenquire on 12-05-2012 11:13:52 Bourn is a player who really is all about his legs that put him above a 4th OF on most teams. Take away his speed and u don't have the player u will be paying for right now 1 or 2 years from now. Granted there is that rare player who keeps the wheels later in their careers. However that is the exception and not the rule. I am still of the belief u get good pieces now and go for the big dollar guys next year. Been saying that all along and as such guys the M's should target. B. McCarthy SP, B. Revere, J.P. Howell. Howell and McCarthy are free agents and should be easy signs. Revere has been said to be up for grabs and I would trade one of Hultzen or Paxton straight up for him much like the Denard Span deal. Solving or leadoff and CF concerns for some time at a decent price. This was a week FA class and people are overpaying to get what little there is. If u do any large deals or signings Hamilton or Ellsbury who is also said to be up for trade bait if Swisher signs with the Red Sox. |
| 11. By: docsmith on 12-05-2012 11:14:33 Just being lazy here...but anyone know what happens if we sign 2 of the 3 (Bourn, Swisher, and Hamilton)? Do we lose two draft picks? I know that is is somewhat unlikely that we even sign one of the three, but the thought crossed my mind. Honestly, I still value the #12 pick a lot. In my mind, we'll have to sign one of these guys to pretty good terms in order to give it up. It all depends on what the M's are trying to accomplish, and I know that there are those that think JZ's job may be somewhat on the line, but I don't buy that. I think 2013 is still about building with a general goal of a winning record and playing "good" baseball. I think the M's start truly contending in 2014 at the earliest and more likely (and potentially elite) by 2015. If that is what you are building for, then a #12 pick this year could have a lot of value. |
| 12. By: greentunic on 12-05-2012 11:15:59 M's get Bay it appears. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/12/mariners-to-sign-jason-bay.html |
| 13. By: rotoenquire on 12-05-2012 11:18:23 Sorry for the dble post darn cell phone postinds I hit the submit button twice.. |
| 14. By: SMariners11 on 12-05-2012 12:27:36 Excuse me for rosterbating, but would like your opinion on the 3-4 team trade with Sea, KC, AZ, Tex Texas receives: Justin Upton AZ receives: Danny Hultzen Elvis Andrus KC receives: Derek Holland Nick Franklin Sea receives: Wil Meyers Trevor Bauer |
| 15. By: Edman on 12-05-2012 12:34:24 I find it utterly amazing that anyone believes that signing Bay is anything more than a low risk-high reward move for Seattle. There is nothing to panic about. He won't be paid so much that they can't cut him if he doesn't perform in Spring Training or during the season. And with the LF fences coming in, he's not a horrible defensive risk. Seems to me that the Pirates won a World Series (the "We are Family" days) with Willie Stargell in LF. |
| 16. By: Bookbook on 12-05-2012 12:39:12 I think Tampa will throw in Longoria if we give up Vargas |
| 17. By: mikew on 12-05-2012 12:39:53 Smariners11, I don't think KC gives up Myers for only Holland & Franklin. |
| 18. By: SMariners11 on 12-05-2012 12:43:12 It was just a thought. With some extra players, I can see a fit for all of the teams. |
| 19. By: Edman on 12-05-2012 12:47:59 Rosterbation is just as valuable as the expectation that masterbation produces a child. |
| 20. By: slamcactus on 12-05-2012 12:48:05 14: in a multi team trade, if your team is making out like a bandit, chances are at least one other team is getting screwed and would never do the deal. In your scenario, those teams are Texas and KC. |
| 21. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-05-2012 12:49:13 Doc, Yes, the M's would lose two draft picks in such a scenario. I seriously doubt they sign two such free agents, though. Maybe one. SMariners11, Good trade proposal. With some small tweaks it can work. I suggest instead of Hultzen going to Arizona and Bauer to Sea, AZ keeps Bauer and Sea keeps Hultzen. Toss in Perez going from Texas to KC and find another piece going to Arizona and it looks pretty good. The thing is, teams value players differently. KC might see Holland as a reliever or a No. 4. |
| 22. By: SMariners11 on 12-05-2012 12:57:33 Jason, I keep hearing that Bauer has fallen out of favor with the DBacks, so I figured that they would want to get rid of him in the deal and I think the Ms could take a chance on him, but need to give up something of value. |
| 23. By: Rudolf on 12-05-2012 13:04:38 So Texas gives Andrus, Holland, and Perez for Upton? And Seattle gets Myers straight across for Franklin? But if by "little tweaks" you mean Seattle giving up another substantial piece(s) to a team(s), then perhaps. TX: Upton AZ: Andrus, Hultzen, Kelley KC: Franklin, Bauer SEA: Myers If KC thinks Bauer is "major league ready" it could work. Texas might need to shift some stuff around to help Arizona feel okay about everything. Does Hultzen, Franklin, Kelley = Myers? Man, I don't know! I'm getting on with my day. |
| 24. By: rjfrik on 12-05-2012 13:34:06 Anyone that thinks the 12th pick in the draft isn't a "great pick" is ignorant. The 12th pick in the draft is a fantastic pick. It's the 12th best player out of 1300 platers. It's grabbing a player that is in the 99th percentile of every amateur player that is available to be drafted. It's an absolutely FANTASTIC pick and should not be punted for Bourn or Swisher or any other secondary FA. If you want to send it to Texas for Hamilton. Okay, he's a superstar. But other then him, not other player is worth investing that type of talent to sign. We aren't just talking about dollars here, but verifiable MLB talent. You would essentially be trading MLB talent to NY or ATL for the right to sign a 30+ year old to a 4 year contract that is going to handcuff you. No thanks. That is not how you run a team. Remember the last time we did this? We punted a pick for a secondary FA. His name was Chone Figgins. |
| 25. By: Rudolf on 12-05-2012 13:44:26 Texas, NY, Atlanta, nor any other MLB club which offered arbitration will receive the M's 12th pick should we sign their former player. The draft pick simply goes away, and the team that offered arbitration receives a supplemental pick between the 1st and 2nd round. |
| 26. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-05-2012 13:45:46 Tweaks meaning some of the players listed going to other teams to even it out. |
| 27. By: DKulich44 on 12-05-2012 13:45:56 @KenDavidoff: An extension for Felix Hernandez appears extremely unlikely this winter. Talks with #Mariners didn't get very far. Funny how the Yankees beat writer says that, but anyone actually close to the situation is giving the complete opposite impression. Some NY beat writer must be fishing for page hits. |
| 28. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-05-2012 13:50:43 On Felix: it's just not imminent. It'll happen, just not tomorrow or anything. On the multi-team trade scenarios: The best way to check your proposal is to narrow it to one team and look at what each individual team is getting and giving up. But like I said above, each team values players differently and their needs are different, which impacts what they value and how much. |
| 29. By: DKulich44 on 12-05-2012 13:56:43 @KenDavidoff: An extension for Felix Hernandez appears extremely unlikely this winter. Talks with #Mariners didn't get very far. Funny how the Yankees beat writer says that, but anyone actually close to the situation is giving the complete opposite impression. Some NY beat writer must be fishing for page hits. |
| 30. By: Mackie on 12-05-2012 13:59:33 Count me with those who aren't too concerned about the Jason Bay signing. Before he went to the Mets he was pretty good. From all indications so far, the worst that could happen is that he might make the team out of spring training and be on the opening-day roster and maybe stink for a month or so and then get cut (which wouldn't be devastating if they brought him on for a lower dollar amount). I'm not sure we have any outfield prospects who are beating down the door, at least not yet, so would Bay really be blocking anyone if it's just a one-year deal? Probably not. If he has anything left in the tank he could be a decent 4th OF, or maybe start for stretches of time if someone is injured. If he's done he's done, and it was a low-risk signing with the potential for some reward. As long as there are no high expectations and it isn't like they are 'depending on him' to produce or anything, I'm fine with it. |
| 31. By: DKulich44 on 12-05-2012 14:03:20 Oops sorry for the double post. Definitely my phone's fault. |
| 32. By: Edman on 12-05-2012 14:35:44 Thank you, rjfrik, for clarifying for everyone what the word "great" means in regard to their personal views. Though, I would say that ignorant, is telling other people what their words should mean. Ignorant might also be defining Nick Swisher as a "secondary" Free Agent. Perhaps to you, he is, but many don't see him that way. Is he a superstar? No, but he's pretty close. You act as if there's another Hamilton or Trout just waiting to be snatched at #12 in the first round. Just for fun, here are the 12th round draft picks, going back to 2000 thru 2010. 2000 Joe Brochard 2001 Mike Jones 2002 Joe Saunders 2003 Lasting Milledge 2004 Jered Weaver 2005 Jay Bruce 2006 Kasey Kiker 2007 Matt Dominquez 2008 Jemile Weeks 2009 Aaron Crow 2010 Yasmani Grandal How many off that list, would you want instead of a guy like Swisher, or to some extent, Bourn. Good picks or great picks? I'd say in general, they were good picks, one great pick, and one superstar pick in the bunch. If it's "settling" for Nick Swisher, count me in. |
| 33. By: diderot on 12-05-2012 15:07:24 I'm in with those who think Greinke is the key to everything. If he signs with the Dodgers, then Hamilton stays in Texas, and the Rangers pay the money for Sanchez or Dempster or some other pitcher. If he signs with the Rangers, then Hamilton doesn't work for them financially, they bite the bullet and send Andrus to Arizona for Upton to take Hamilton's place. Once the Hamilton decision is made, one way or the other, then teams like the M's know what they're facing. If Hamilton's available, they make their bid, knowing that it's likely no other big money teams are involved--hopefully it's fellow bargain hunters like the Orioles and Indians, and not the Phillies. If he can wait that long, Swisher sees what Hamilton gets and makes his demand accordingly. At that point, one of the the other outfielder-buyers now has Hamilton, and thus is also out of the market for Swisher. I think the odds of the M's winding up with either Hamilton or Swisher are now better than they were a couple weeks ago. So to this point, I think a lot of teams have filled their needs with pieces I don't think were right for the M's--Napoli, Victorino, Melky, Hunter, B.J. Upton, etc. I don't know if the M's just got outbid on those guys or whether this was part of the master poker play, but holdin' 'em so far looks good to me. |
| 34. By: Mackie on 12-05-2012 15:25:48 Here is some more fun that is without much point, but it's still fun and it's Hot Stove season... how about a three-way trade between LA, Cleveland and Seattle: The Mariners send a good prospect to the Indians, and then send a decent prospect + Brendan Ryan to the Dodgers; the Indians send Asdrubal Cabrera to the Mariners; and the Dodgers send Dee Gordon to the Indians and Chris Capuano to the Mariners. We might not have to give up our best prospects in such a trade. The M's would get help with hitting and also with the rotation. Cleveland gets a young SS and a prospect, and the Dodgers get a veteran starting SS and a prospect. Might something like that work, would it be worthwhile, and if it wouldn't work then what would have to be added in there so it might? 8-) My guess is the Mariners would have to give up more, but maybe not a whole lot more, and the Dodgers would need to get more. |
| 35. By: SMariners11 on 12-05-2012 15:31:07 Edman, I think it is very ignorant to just look at who was drafted at #12 overall. The depth changes from year to year in drafts. What you need to do is evaluate the talent that you think will be available for your pick and see if that is worth giving up for a free agent. Just because the #12 pick has been average at best does not mean that it is ok to give it away. |
| 36. By: rjfrik on 12-05-2012 15:32:59 Edman you stated that the 12th pick wan't great. You said "it's a good pick but not necessarily a great pick." That is a false statement. Why? Because of basic facts, not opinion!! The 12th pick is the 12th best of something out of 1300. It's in the 99th percentile of that singular object. It's basic math. When something is the 99th percentile of something it's not only great. It's fantastic. It's damn near the best. It's in a rarified category. The best you can get on an SAT is 1600. With your logic, if you score a 1595 and were in the 99th percentile of all students who took the test, it would not be great, hey it would be good but not necessarily great. You know who would disagree with you? Stanford, Princeton, Harvard or any other prestigious academic institution. The best score you can have in bowling is 300, but if you rolled a 292 according to your logic, that wasn't a great game, good but not necessarily great. See where I'm going with this? Comprehend the facts? Or is explaining the facts to you being too ignorant? I would take 6 out of ten of those #12 picks instead of Swisher or Bourn or any other secondary FA, which is exactly what both of those guys are. This isn't Nick Swisher the FA 5 years ago. This is a guy who is declining and will decline. And you shouldn't be so narrow minded when looking at past picks at 12th. Look at who was chosen at 13,14 and 15 because those are the guys that JZ and Mac will be deliberating over when they pick 12. It's never concrete that one guy and only one guy is slotted in the 12th pick. Usually you are deliberating over 3 if not 4 guys for any one pick. So go back and look in the last ten years what kind of player was selected with those picks and you will see a player far superior to anything on the FA market outside of Hamilton. So you are willing to punt a player like that for an over the hill FA? I'm not. Not with JZ and Mac's track record in targeting and drafting players. You don't run a team that way and be successful, JZ tried this once already and it netted nothing, in fact it had a negative value effect on the team. Just like the signing of Swisher or Bourn will do. There is no long term value in signing those players at all. The value is immediate and I'm sorry but this isn't the LAA, LAD, NYY, BAL, DET or any other club that is in serious contention for a playoff spot and needs immediate value. We are an extremely young team and the majority of our major cogs need seasoning. They need another year before they hit their stride. This isn't the year to sign a player like Bourn (who technically is an awful fit any ways) or Swisher. This was a year to sign a guy like Melky Cabrera, but that ship sailed. Time to move on and go find a trade partner. If you can't find one that you stand pat and let your kids develop. |
| 37. By: Dregur on 12-05-2012 15:36:38 @34 That trade makes no sense for the Dodgers. They lose Gordon AND Capuano (a decent starting pitcher) for only a decent prospect and Brendan Ryan? A SS they really don't need with Ramirez? |
| 38. By: Edman on 12-05-2012 15:47:05 rjfrik, I'm not going to do your work for you. Prove that Swisher has been declining, instead assuming that he is. The last four years he's had an OBP of no less than .360, and an OPS of over .800. 2012 was better than 2011. Prove it. And yes, I would trade a #12 draft pick to start the Mariners back on the road to being a successful franchise. It's one pick, not THE pick. |
| 39. By: Edman on 12-05-2012 15:48:25 And yes, rjfrik, sometimes, there doesn't have to be long-term value. |
| 40. By: Mackie on 12-05-2012 16:01:48 @34, thanks for the response but you didn't bother to answer the questions I added at the end. "Might something like that work, would it be worthwhile, and if it wouldn't work then what would have to be added in there so it might?" In other words, what else would the Dodgers need then? Thanks for the reminder about Ramirez, you're spot on with that, my oversight! |
| 41. By: diderot on 12-05-2012 17:26:01 Here's the thing I don't understand about the latest alleged three-way negotiation, i.e.: Cabrera to Arizona Upton to Texas Young Texas and Arizona pitchers to Cleveland Why is Texas involved instead of us? We can devote better young pitching than the Rangers can. We might even be willing to accept one year of Choo (which no one else seems to want) to give Cleveland more money to play with, and even throw in another young guy. What's the magic about Texas? |
| 42. By: Edman on 12-05-2012 17:49:48 diderot, it's all speculation, and is like a runaway train at this point. What makes three-way deals difficult is pleasing three teams. Texas has a pretty deep farm system, so they can offer as much or more of what Cleveland may want, than Seattle can. There has to be more involved. Why would Cleveland want Young? That makes no sense. It's all bad rumor at this point. |
| 43. By: qwerty on 12-05-2012 18:01:26 I've decided: M's need good hitters and I would like any two. |
| 44. By: diderot on 12-05-2012 18:39:06 edman Sorry, that was grammatical confusion. I didn't mean Young the player, I meant pitchers who were young. |
| 45. By: bobbysee1 on 12-05-2012 19:22:42 Just for the record I'm all in on Hamilton. |
| 46. By: Paul Martin on 12-05-2012 19:39:07 Hey guys, trying to follow all these rumors and figure out just what Seattle is going to do HAS MY HEAD SPINNING!!! I have a headache and am going to disconnect, step away, and just wait. Let me know in a couple weeks when they actually do something! I wish Jack luck, because he is going to need it! |
| 47. By: Rudolf on 12-05-2012 21:29:39 JAC, so now someone is saying the M's are trying to get Derek Holland out of this 4-way trade with Tx, Az, and Cle. What do you think of that? |
| 48. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-05-2012 21:35:39 Just spoke of that in the update above... |
| 49. By: aerichner on 12-05-2012 21:40:41 Precisely what I was thinking. I understand the M's not wanting to help Texas out but if they feel like they're #2 for Hamilton and that takes Texas out of it so they can focus on Greinke then sure, help them out. If Texas ends up with Upton and Greinke and we end up with Hamilton and Holland (or another hitter if we flip Holland like Jason suggested above) then we did well. Having the MLBTR app on my iphone (to keep track of all the rumors) + following Jason on twitter (to make sense of it all) is a definite must. @adrich1 |
| 50. By: marinersfan424 on 12-05-2012 21:54:21 I knew when the multi-team trade talks were happening, Jack Z would get his nose in there. Jason - any idea what kinds of prospect pieces the M's are talking about to get Holland? |
| 51. By: mykillmagnum on 12-05-2012 22:04:57 whats the point of having cleveland in the deal if andrus would be going to arizona, why not just eliminate cleveland all together, and just change in kc. texas gets upton arizona gets andrus nick franklin jake odorizzi kc gets holland brendan maurer capps or pryor seattle gets myers trevor bauer obviously other prospects can be added as well but to me it makes all the sense in the world to make a deal like this. then go hard after hamilton then trade either guti or saunders and shawn kelly to philly for jonathon pettibone. this starts to allow your team to take shape lf hamilton cf guti or saunders which ever you keep rf myers 3b seager ss ryan 2b ackley 1b smoak c ???? dh montero/bay/jaso/ many other choices or combos sp king sp bauer sp vargas sp iwakuma sp whoever else i wouldnt be to mad with a team like this, just looking for a fit at catcher and not sure why no one has brought his name up ( maybe because no one can say or spell it right) but jarrod saltalamacchia. i dont know what his defense is like but he hit for some pop last season and was said to be available, just a suggestion though to kind of fill the void till zunino is ready. |
| 52. By: amac360 on 12-05-2012 22:19:15 KC would never do that. There is always one team disappointed in trades like this. |
| 53. By: dewey on 12-06-2012 00:27:37 Im cracking up at all of these three ways and 4 ways cmon people we allready signed Jason Bay!/...lol...I will believe Jack and Seattle get a player when i see it.The Mariners have become the new Redsox and Rangers in the middle and on every player out there im sorry ive lost confidence in our front office and hopefully im wrong but im tired of the double talk they have been here 4 years and this is year 5 its time for production please |
| 54. By: aerichner on 12-06-2012 00:50:57 so, I WAS sleeping until I got this push notification on my cell from MLBTR. They were passing along some info from Geoff Baker about the club being in advanced negotiations with Hamilton. Yeah, I can't sleep. I know it all depends on Texas right now and what they do with Greinke but whenever something gets reported this late, I believe it to have some legit legs. Waiting game now. It doesnt sound like a pipe dream at this point. |
| 55. By: Edman on 12-06-2012 01:18:17 Let's hope that Greinke's Texas wife helps convince him to go to Texas. I think that's the only thing in the way of a deal. That said, as we saw last year, who saw the Angels step up and sign Pujois, so anything is possible. |
| 56. By: Alpha Blu on 12-06-2012 01:28:06 Dewey, I've been reading this site ever since you began posting. You didn't have the requisite knowledge and skill to write like a literate human being then, and you don't now. Perhaps you ought to be patient and cut the front office some slack. |
| 57. By: greentunic on 12-06-2012 01:30:55 Montero for a year of Granderson? Am I wrong to see that as an atrocious deal for the M's? |
| 58. By: Edman on 12-06-2012 01:56:33 Unless you're one player away from a division title, trading someone like Montero for Granderson might be considered insane. I might do a few prospects, but that would be it. Plus, I have no desire to help the Yankees out of the financial bind they put themselves in. |
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