| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 12-03-2012 |
The annual winter meetings in Major League Baseball has come to be known as a time span in which many free agents sign contracts and blockbuster trades are made. Certainly this year will not reflect anything different.
When it comes to the Seattle Mariners, however, don't fret if they leave Nashville without making a single significant move. The trade that sent right-handers Michael Pineda and Jorge Campos to the New York Yankees for Jesus Montero and Hector Noesi did not occur until five full weeks after the winter meetings concluded. Many big deals -- signings and trades -- happen after teams leave the gathering.
More than being the time and place when deals are struck, the winter meetings are known for being the place when the most significant progress is made on numerous impact transactions.
Most likely Mariners to be traded
The M's tendered each of their arbitration eligibles but one or two of them could be traded this week, or sometime this offseason. Also, it's difficult to imagine the club adding an impact bat via trade without parting with one of the better starting pitchers in the farm system.
1. Shawn Kelley, RHP
2. James Paxton, LHP
3. Brendan Ryan, SS
4. Franklin Gutierrez, CF
5. Lucas Luetge, LHP
6. Jason Vargas, LHP
7. Taijuan Walker, RHP
8. John Jaso, C/DH
9. Hector Noesi, RHP
10. Justin Smoak, 1B
Kelley and Josh Kinney are redundant and since Kinney is going to be a little cheaper, the M's are likely to be more motivated to move Kelley.
Luetge in no way needs to be moved, but could be a valuable factor in a trade package. His presence is not as necessary with Oliver Perez re-signing with the club earlier this offseason and the M's sticking with Charlie Furbush as a relief option.
If the Mariners add a significant talent to the starting rotation, Vargas would become more likely to be dealt, but until then he's not even likely to be available. Gutierrez's availability may depend on the club's luck in adding an outfielder or two before Christmas. If that occurs, the centerfielder could be dealt in January.
M's needs
1. Outfielders
The club needs at least one above-average outfielder and could really use two, given the fact that Gutierrez is a major injury risk, Casper Wells is more of a platoon hitter and Michael Saunders has but one decent big-league season under his belt.
2. First Base
The M's have options at first already on the roster, even if the club does not believe in Smoak in the least, with Jaso and Montero possibilities, at least in a part-time role.
3. Catcher
In my opinion the M's were not after Mike Napoli to catch regularly. I believe Napoli was about offense and they'd worry about where he played and how often later, and dependent on what else they could do at the other two positions ranked above.
With Napoli out of the question, a trade is possible, but there isn't a major issue at catcher with Jaso and Montero capable of handling at least a half-season of duties between them, and Mike Zunino closer to the majors than most believed he'd be at this stage.
4. Starting Pitcher
The M's have five starters in Felix Hernandez, Jason Vargas, Hisashi Iwakuma, Erasmo Ramirez and Blake Beavan, and have four prospects within a year or so of the big leagues. It's more likely that a starter is added in the form of Kevin Millwood.
Names such as Rich Harden, Kevin Correia, Jeff Francis, Tim Stauffer, Chris Young and Chien-Ming Wang could be possibilities.
Anything bigger than that -- i.e., Kyle Lohse, Anibal Sanchez, Zack Greinke, Brandon McCarthy or even Shaun Marcum -- could mean Vargas hitting the trade block.
5. Veteran Reliever
The M's bullpen is very young -- and awesomely cheap -- and could use an infusion of experience, particularly in the area of right-handed setup. Relying on two youngsters such as Stephen Pryor and Carter Capps to produce consistent seasons in 2013 might be a little much, and some reliability is an absolute necessity in that spot.
Whether or not GM Jack Zduriencik and crew are willing to devote any payroll to such an addition is unknown.
Addressing the Pirates-Mariners Rumor
Sunday, a report by Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times made its way around the 'sphere, stirring up the fan base a bit.
The proposed deal mentioned to and by Baker:
The M's send Smoak, Noesi and Jaso to Pittsburgh
The Pirates send CL Joel Hanrahan and Garret Jones to Seattle
In terms of talent for talent, the M's would come out ahead in this deal, in my opinion. There is little upside for Seattle here, however, and both Jones and Hanrahan are going to get even more expensive this winter.
All the upside resides in the package the Pirates would receive, with Smoak and Noesi still capable of being legitimate 25-man roster members and Jaso being a cheaper -- and just as good, perhaps -- hitter in comparison to Jones.
The M's could turn around and flip Hanrahan in another deal later, but I don't really see this deal making a lot of sense. Jones reminds me far too much of Ben Broussard; can't play outfield, mediocre even at first, has legit power but the hit tool is fringy. He's the epitome of average, and at 31 years of age is probably more likely to decline in 2013 than even maintain his production thanks to natural environment changes.
It's also selling low on Jaso, if you ask me.
Other things to know about the Winter Meetings
-- Days 2 and 3 are historically the busiest when it comes to buzz and rumors
-- Day 4 is when the Rule 5 Draft occurs, and not a lot else is generally going on as teams are headed home or to visit players, et al.
-- Watch out for the way tweets and reports are worded. Many times readers can jump past a specific way something is written and miss out on the intent of the piece. "M's may be in on Upton" doesn't mean the particular reports is saying they are, he/she is saying they believe it's possible. Meaning "there are no indications that they definitely are out" on Upton. "A's close to deal with McCarthy?" The key here is the question mark. If I were to have tweeted that, it would mean there are indication the A's and McCarthy have progressed significantly in contract talks. Without the question mark, I'd be saying they are close to a deal, at least according to sources.
winter-meetings-2012
Comments
The following 42 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: Paul Martin on 12-03-2012 14:50:37 Don't see much trade value in Gutierrez, Noesi, or Smoke. Any significant trade would include Franklin and one (or two) of the big three pitching prospects. |
| 2. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-03-2012 14:53:06 Paul, Why does a significant trade have to include Franklin? I don't see it that way at all. It might, but it certainly doesn't have to. |
| 3. By: Paul Martin on 12-03-2012 15:01:05 He has value and Seattle has depth at the position (if you see him at 2B not SS). I am not saying I want to trade him, but he has value to other teams. |
| 4. By: Edman on 12-03-2012 15:01:31 Agreed, Jason. Certainly every team is going to try to pry Paxton, Hultzen or Walker, but it doesn't mean they will succeed. There is more beyond Franklin. Stefano and Miller might be more appealing than Franklin. Some seem to get caught up on certain names. Certainly the players Paul mentioned get a lot of press, but the Mariner system has other talent available. |
| 5. By: Edman on 12-03-2012 15:04:14 Keep in mind, teams scout the M's farm system as extensively as the M's scout their systems. Trades may include names that don't get a ton of press. |
| 6. By: iheartfelix on 12-03-2012 15:08:31 JAC, how do you figure trading Jaso now would be selling low? Didn't he just put up the best year of his career? |
| 7. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-03-2012 15:09:19 Paul, Of course has value to other teams. That doesn't mean he'll have to be in a trade package to get back a significant player. I heard Jack spoke of Brad Miller today, unprovoked. Just tossing that out there. |
| 8. By: Paul Martin on 12-03-2012 15:29:43 Love the discussion. So what will it take to get Upton from Arizona or Meyers out of KC? I think a 3 team trade is most likely, which is why I had Franklin and one of the big three to get back the needed pieces from the 3rd team to get Arizona or KC what they want. |
| 9. By: Edman on 12-03-2012 15:44:32 Paul, you have great manlove for Myers? Seattle is not looking for another prospect. They need Major League ready hitters. They have enough prospects, and who's to stay that in another year, Stefano might be the same kind of hitter? I can't see Jack going after Myers at this stage. He's trying to complete, not continue to rebuild. Seattle may have a shot at Upton, but the Diamondback are going to want an overpay. And, Seattle has to compete with teams that have players that are ML ready, which is likely what they are looking for. |
| 10. By: Rampageoholics on 12-03-2012 16:01:01 Jason, What would you be willing to give up for Butler? Would assume that Smoak would be in the package so would Paxton/Smoak/Kelley/Noesi get it done? I would NOT include Montero in any package for a hitter. |
| 11. By: iheartfelix on 12-03-2012 16:02:51 Edman, who the hell is this Stefano you keep talking about? |
| 12. By: k0o56 on 12-03-2012 16:09:32 Last I heard, Seattle is on Upton's no-trade list. Won't matter what Seattle offers unless he changes his mind. |
| 13. By: jgthompson21 on 12-03-2012 16:27:12 #11, Edman is referring to Romero I think. Stefen Romero |
| 14. By: Paul Martin on 12-03-2012 16:57:15 @9 I like Meyers because his upside is so huge and is exactly what we need (outfielder that hits for power and average). I realize he is a prospect, and hasn't done it at the big league level. The problem is finding an MLB hitter THAT IS AVAILABLE! Teams don't trade them and they rarely reach free agency. My trade would include prospects too, and who knows if our prospects pan out either. Seattle isn't going to pass Texas or the Angels next year anyway. We can wait on a guy like Myers to develop. I would rather get Myers than Butler, who is a DH/1B type and we already have enough of those. We need outfielders, who would you suggest we get? @12 I heard that rumor too. I guess we can forget about Upton. |
| 15. By: rjfrik on 12-03-2012 16:59:12 Or Edman is talking about the double secret uber prospect that only the front office and Edman know about. His name is Stefano Gustaf Williamason IV. He belted 56 HR's last year in a special virtual minor league baseball league that Edman has set up in his basement. He is only available to certain teams for the right price. Contact Edman of JZ if you are interested. How do I know this? Because my agent is friends with Scott Boras who's trying to sign Stefano. But Edman runs all the negotiations for Stefano and Edman won't budge unless Stefano has the right reading material. So far Boras hasn't solved Edman's riddles as to what that reading material might be. Like everything. Only Edman knows. Only Edman knows. |
| 16. By: Paul Martin on 12-03-2012 17:11:04 @15 LOL!!! |
| 17. By: VikingArthur on 12-03-2012 17:13:48 The proposed trade with Pittsburgh makes ZERO sense. I'd be appalled if they made that trade. Jaso is very valuable in my view. |
| 18. By: Edman on 12-03-2012 17:15:28 I posted that it was a typo, that I meant Stefen Romero. But, for some unknown reason, it didn't show up. Oh well. I hope you had fun with that, rjfrik. |
| 19. By: Edman on 12-03-2012 17:29:01 Paul Martin, Jack is running out of time. He doesn't have time to take on another prospect. Wes Myers is not going to help him keep his job. That is the reality of it all. The fans of Seattle are running out of patience. You may have a Jones for Myers, but that doesn't make it likely to happen. We aren't talking fantasy baseball. The M's need to get good, fast. Rebuilding is becoming a chronic. Jack has to show some real steps, soon. You expect him to sacrifice his job for your manlove? It's not likely to happen, no matter how hard you wish for it. |
| 20. By: Paul Martin on 12-03-2012 17:39:13 @19 Who do you suggest they target? I would love to have immediate help by signing Swisher, Bourne, or even Hamilton, but I don't see the team paying the $$$ and years these guys would need to come here. If Jack can sign one of those three then all the more power to him, but I don't see it happening. |
| 21. By: Edman on 12-03-2012 17:48:52 And I don't see Jack giving up on next season, by taking another prospect to add to those currently on the roster. He would if he could get Myers cheap enough, but the Royals will not sell low. They want the same for Myers, and Jack would for Paxton, Walker, Hultzen or Franklin....help now. We're not even at a point where Jack would consider it. He needs to use his prospect to get him help now. |
| 22. By: Mackie on 12-03-2012 17:54:02 Great piece Jason, thanks! That list looks pretty sound. Would trading any of those top ten guys one-for-one be enough for the M's to add a piece that would make a significant difference in one of the areas of need you listed, or are we talking about trading combinations of those guys? Seems to me it would be more like "combinations" necessary. If the M's hadn't acquired Robert Andino, do you think Jeff Keppinger would have been a worthwhile FA to pursue? If you think he is a decent player, would he be a fit for the Mariners, and under what circumstances might they go after him? @20, I agree. I wouldn't mind at all if they bring in an established FA OF bat, even if they overpay a bit for it. I do think it is that important for the team for 2013... but I don't see it happening (the M's signing a big name). But I can see where they might make a couple of minor signings, and/or a couple of trades for adding depth, versatility, and hopefully some more offense. |
| 23. By: Alpha Blu on 12-03-2012 18:48:08 Regarding comment #'s 12 & 14, I remember reading somewhere that no-trade lists like Upton's are often ignored by both the player's organization and the organization attempting to acquire him. Teams worry about convincing the player to waive his no-trade clause later. I'm still holding out hope. |
| 24. By: Alpha Blu on 12-03-2012 19:06:13 Edman, you are not giving up on a season by acquiring a prospect, much less acquiring a prospect like Myers. Get your head out of the sand. For the right price, Myers would be a nice addition. What sort of information are you privy to that makes you so certain Jack wouldn't then augment an addition like Myers by signing a player like Michael Bourn? Who's to say we wouldn't sign Nick Swisher, too? We don't know what's going to happen, but trading super volatile pitching prospects for a hitter projected by BP to be star is a solid move, and it can become great with additional improvements. |
| 25. By: qwerty on 12-03-2012 19:15:30 19. I believe Myers would out produce in 2013 any OF currently on our roster. So get him and another bat and that's significant. |
| 26. By: jgstecker on 12-03-2012 21:00:43 Will Myers is major league ready. He is, hands down, the most exciting player connected with the M's this offseason. |
| 27. By: sexymarinersfan on 12-03-2012 21:13:38 @23 Alpha, your right. Sometimes players put teams with money on their no trade lists, to leverage money out of them when a trade is proposed. Asdrubal Cabrera recently said, "because that's what good agents do." Maybe Upton's agent got wind of something and passed it on to Justin. Or it could be the opposite, that he just doesn't want to come here. |
| 28. By: Rudolf on 12-03-2012 21:15:08 Willingham, Kubel, and Choo all make sense if the price is right. Perhaps the A's would trade one of their myriad outfielders? Very few teams have a surplus of outfielders, including KC. Myers is not a luxury for them. The M's don't need a star OF acquisition. If we can fill a spot (or two) with average/above average production for 2013, we can see what else develops on it's own. Perhaps Wells or Thames step forward. Maybe it's Romero, or that bum Catricala. I'm starting to adjust my thinking. Cody Ross would be satisfactory. I wouldn't have said that a week ago. It really doesn't matter much because the M's are relying on multiple players progressing in their development in order to become a playoff contender. If that happens in 2013, great! If it takes another year or two, fine. Whether we spend big on Hamilton/Swisher or trade for Upton, guys like Ackley and Montero have to step forward. Let's not deplete the farm for guys like Upton or Myers. They aren't guarantees and the players around them aren't guarantees. If we sign a good SP and pick up a proven outfielder or two (for good prices) we should be relatively competitive in 2013. The team, ultimately, needs another year or two to come together. We must be patient. |
| 29. By: StandinPat on 12-03-2012 21:19:50 "Seattle is not looking for another prospect. They need Major League ready hitters" Yes, and Myers very likely fits that bill. Simply dismissing the idea of acquiring a player because he hasn't yet graduated to majors is severely foolish and wreaks of Bavasi. Yeah, let's go get ourselves some of them proven hitters, nevermind if they are actually upgrades, they just need to be "proven." "Last I heard, Seattle is on Upton's no-trade list. Won't matter what Seattle offers unless he changes his mind." This subject has been spoken about extensively. Players often use their no-trade list as a bargaining tool. The fact that Seattle is on there is meaningless on its own. "He doesn't have time to take on another prospect" Again, you are using a generalization and completely ignoring player himself. Myers is a good an offensive prospect as there is in all of baseball and by all accounts is MLB ready. Its not a stretch to think he could be an immediate upgrade in the OF. "Wes Myers is not going to help him keep his job" That's probably true, as Wes Myers is possibly a real person, but definitely not one who plays professional baseball. "The M's need to get good, fast" Again, you have absolutely no evidence and have not made a reasonable argument as why Myers can't do that. "And I don't see Jack giving up on next season, by taking another prospect to add to those currently on the roster" Yes, clearly adding Myers would be giving up on this season. Seriously? "do you think Jeff Keppinger would have been a worthwhile FA to pursue?" He's certainly interesting, but 1) Isn't a great defender 2) Is on the wrong side of 30 3) Is coming off a career year 4) Just recently broke his leg 5) Is probably going to want a mostly everyday gig. Probably not the best fit. |
| 30. By: rightwingrick on 12-03-2012 21:33:49 I remember a few years back when nearly everyone on earth (including me) thought the Chone Figgins signing was a brilliant move and would take the M's to the next level. That includes almost all the professional analysts out there, too. So no matter what Jack does this year, and no matter how much we all cheer or snear, the proof will play out in April, May, June, and July. |
| 31. By: rightwingrick on 12-03-2012 21:35:39 The Mariners and Diamondbacks met tonight (Saturday, December 3), tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Read more at http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/#yLWLfsYpJvQl0a6J.99 |
| 32. By: Edman on 12-03-2012 22:15:58 StandinPat, You wrote: ....Its not a stretch to think he could be an immediate upgrade in the OF. Some of the same things were said about Ackley. I would not say that he came anywhere near what many expected, and he was a pretty well regarded hitter. With a little rewrite, might the following have been said last off-season? ....Its not a stretch to think Ackley could be an immediate upgrade to the Mariner offense. Just saying. |
| 33. By: Alpha Blu on 12-03-2012 22:27:09 Ackley was never universally regarded as a star bat--Myers is. I would argue that you're making an asinine comparison because Myers' offensive ceiling is so much higher than that of Ackley. |
| 34. By: Rudolf on 12-03-2012 22:40:16 Alpha, I think he makes a fine point. All this talk about Myers is a BS pipe dream, anyway. |
| 35. By: aerichner on 12-03-2012 23:40:57 I dont tend to agree with him but Geoff Baker is right in this piece http://blogs.seattletimes.com/mariners/2012/12/03/one-thing-we-can-determine-from-mariners-conduct-so-far-justin-smoak-should-be-worried/?syndication=rss We want the team to get better yet we find something wrong with every single frickin player. If it's a player on another team we want him for our C prospects...or they make too much...or we already have someone like him. If it's a FA, they want too much money or too many years...bleh I trust Jack and company. The system has been rebuilt. Good trades have been made. Bad trades have been made. Good FAs signings have turned out to be awful. Happens to all of them, but I like the one we have. He'll do something. Some will like it, some will love it, some will hate it, some will critique it...some will buy tickets to games, some will watch from home, some will watch from another state and some will watch from an island (like me)...and we'll all move on still being Mariner fans. Cheers and happy holidays. |
| 36. By: Edman on 12-03-2012 23:42:39 Alpha Blu, I have no need to compare their ceilings. It has nothing to do with that. And Ackley's bat was just as heralded as Myers, but as different types of hitters. As Rudolf points out, some here are talking about Myers being a real possibility for Seattle. That is asinine, IMO. First and foremost, we don't have what Kansas City wants in return for him. Secondly, any team that could give up what Kansas City wants, likely would want Myers in a deal, and not be willing to send him to Seattle, unless Jack overpays to get Myers. We're just not a match. So, going on constantly about trying to acquiring him is a test in futility. |
| 37. By: Juan Valdez on 12-03-2012 23:45:08 I'm not sure what a "proven" major league hitter is exactly. Billy Butler is a heck of a hitter, and so I suppose he's proven himself, more or less. On the other hand, he's a positionally limited right handed batter, whereas Wil Myers plays the outfield, and by all accounts does it reasonably well. |
| 38. By: Paul Martin on 12-04-2012 05:51:17 @35 yes, the Baker article is a good read. I still hope that if we are trading away our best prospects like Franklin or one of the big 3 pitchers, that it is done for an outfielder and not a 1B/DH type. |
| 39. By: Paul Martin on 12-04-2012 05:58:12 @36 if Seattle doesn't have the MLB ready players KC wants, you bring in a 3rd team. You can get a team looking to cut payroll or acquire young top pitching prospects under team and cost control, trade for a MLB ready pitcher and in a 3 way get Myers. Jack has made 3 team trades in the past and could do it again. |
| 40. By: Paul Martin on 12-04-2012 06:52:16 Hey Jason, would Jack be interested in Curtis Granderson? I know he wanted him when Detroit traded him to NY. NY is believed to be willing to move him to save money to do other things. He is owed $15 million next year before he his free agency. With A-Rod out with injury, would NY insist on Kyle Seager back in any possible trade? |
| 41. By: Edman on 12-04-2012 09:54:16 Why would Seattle trade a key player to what little offense they have, for one year of Granderson? |
| 42. By: sexymarinersfan on 12-04-2012 11:56:56 I agree with Edman. I wouldn't do that deal, unless the M's Bress was granted a negotiating window with Curtis, and we all know that probably wouldn't happen when he's just around the corner from free agency and leaving a contender to a bottom dweller. |
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