Prospect Insider - Winter Meeting 2012: Day 2
Winter Meeting 2012: Day 2

By Jason A. ChurchillBy 12-04-2012

While the meetings in Nashville have been fairly uneventful for most clubs, there have been numerous reports on numerous free agents and trade scenarios. This is the part that drives some fans crazy -- get something done already! -- but as I noted Monday, the meetings serve more as a place to create a foundation for deals that happen later this month or even in January, as the Seattle Mariners did a year ago when they acquired Jesus Montero from the New York Yankees.

Let's chat about today's rumors.

Pitching
Late in the day, Jon Morosi of FOXSports.com tweeted that the Los Angeles Dodgers are shopping right-hander Aaron Harang and southpaw Chris Capuano, potentially to clear a little payroll space and a rotation spot for Zack Greinke. Capuano is exactly the kind of starter in which the M's should have strong interest.

Adding Capuano could allow the M's to trade Jason Vargas and come out about $2 million ahead in payroll balances --Capuano is due $6 million in 2013, Vargas could get more than $8 million via arbitration. Adding such a pitcher doesn't mean Vargas is a goner for sure, however. That's a pretty solid rotation, despite the lack of a true No. 2 starter behind Felix Hernandez.

In such a scenario where Capuano, or another similar arm, is acquired by Seattle, The odd-man out becomes Blake Beavan, and/or Erasmo Ramirez. Ramirez may actually have some intriguing value in a package deal where he's the second or third piece. We'll talk about that in a minute.

Justin Upton
The most interesting report on Upton Tuesday came from ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney who tweeted late in the afternoon that the Diamondbacks had a four-team deal going involving Upton and Indians' shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera.

No word on the other two teams, but there's certainly a chance that Seattle is one of them. The Phillies could also be involved -- ESPN's Pedro Gomez tweeted that Arizona and Philly discussed an Upton-for-Lee deal, and while that was shot down minutes later, clearly the Phillies can use Upton.

Josh Hamilton
As I have stated all along, the Rangers are the heavy favorites to sign Hamilton, and I contend that Hamilton would take less to stay in Texas. Word is the Rangers are ready to go to four years guaranteed on the former MVP, likely at around $25 million per season.

The Mariners are the only other club mentioned prominently for Hamilton, though the Red Sox could change their minds and get in quickly if they wanted to do so. I expect the Rangers to get the deal done fairly soon.

Other bats
The Mariners have yet to be linked to free agent Nick Swisher and trade option Shin-Soo Choo. Choo is a 1-year fix, so it's easy to see why he's not an ideal fit in Seattle. Swisher, on the other hand, is waiting for Hamilton to sign so he can sit atop the world as the top outfielder and No. 1 hitter left on the market.

If Upton is traded before Swisher signs, that only helps cause more. He could be the last major piece to sign among the hitters.

If the M's have interest, there may not be any from Swisher, who is believed to prefer Los Angeles, New York or San Francisco, though none of the three appear to be idea landing spots. Texas would make some sense whether or not they kept Hamilton, as Swisher can play first base as well as right field.

Seattle's interest in Michael Bourn is something I'll tackle later this evening.


winter-meeting-2012:-day-2

Comments
The following 14 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1.  By: Paul Martin on 12-04-2012 16:54:17
Thanks for the update Jason! I love the idea of trading for Capuano. Would LA trade him for our surplus relievers? Am I overly pessimistic in my belief the M's will not be willing to pay the necessary $$$ and years to sign Bourn, Swisher, or Hamilton? I just hope that when these guys sign elsewhere some decent scraps (like Capuano) are still available for us to sign or trade for...

2.  By: candasharp on 12-04-2012 16:57:15
Curious as to whether you see the Bourn interest as a precursor to a trade involving Saunders or Gutierrez. If the Dodgers might be interested in Gutierrez + a prospect, could Capuano be part of the return which could then lead to a KC trade involving Capuano or Vargas + Kelley + prospect(s) for Myers?

Just thinking aloud ...

3.  By: jazon_24 on 12-04-2012 16:59:42
I understand why Capuano would push Beavan out of the rotation, but why could Capuano also push Erasmo Ramirez out of the rotation? I count 5 starters - Hernandez, Vargas, Iwakuma, Capuano, Ramirez (in no particular order).

If Hultzen is ready at the beginning of the season (which seems doubtful), I guess I could see Ramirez losing his spot.

4.  By: Paul Martin on 12-04-2012 17:02:31
@2 I am all for anything that gets us Myers!

With the Red Sox giving Victorino 3/39, are they no longer in on Swisher, Hamilton, or Bourn? Nice overpay by Boston! They gave away Adrian Gonzalez to clear out their bad contracts and do this?

5.  By: Mackie on 12-04-2012 17:04:23
The following is like rosturbation, so I'll be brief: if the M's could do a three-way trade with KC and TB and end up with Myers, would it be worth it? TB would want a good SP, which TB could give them. The M's want Myers. What prospects would the M's have to give TB and maybe to KC, and what kind of other players could the M's get along with Myers... anyone useful? There, that's out of the way. Just thinking it would be fun to see Myers in a Seattle uniform. 8-)

Capuano is intriguing, for sure. Even more intriguing is the idea of a four-way deal involving Arizona and Cleveland and possibly the Mariners. Would our target be Upton or Cabrera?

6.  By: Mackie on 12-04-2012 17:09:12
That should have read "KC would want a good starting pitcher, which TB could give them". My bad! LOL


7.  By: Edman on 12-04-2012 17:26:15
I think Boston is going to head down a similar path as they did last year. They're adding bad contracts and debt with aging players that will probably not improve the team enough. I doubt that Epstein would have followed the same path.

8.  By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-04-2012 18:33:24
Jazon,

It wouldn't necessarily push Ramirez and certainly not before Beavan, but it's not like he's a polished/finished product and ready to go 200 innings. He may be best suited for the bullpen long term and could have more value to the team as a trade piece.

Mackie,

In the four-way deal Olney tweeted about, Cabrera would end up in Arizona. Where Upton would end up is unclear.

9.  By: masonb on 12-04-2012 18:54:16
Jason,

Do you know if that 4 way thing is still being worked on or something that kinda came and went? I figured that tomorrow will be the day where we see alot of things resolved now that GM's have had two full days to work on deals. I figure nothing is imminent but thought I'd ask anyways.

Also, on MLBTR (which I admit might not be the best indication of things actually happening) there's a story about Seattle being really in on Dee Gordon. Could he perhaps be a SS that Arizona is interested in, granted that he's packaged with other pieces?

10.  By: rocketdawg31 on 12-04-2012 19:06:38

Also, on MLBTR (which I admit might not be the best indication of things actually happening) there's a story about Seattle being really in on Dee Gordon. Could he perhaps be a SS that Arizona is interested in, granted that he's packaged with other pieces?

If that snippet's got any legs, that'd be MY leading guess.

But, as we so often have to note....NOBODY knows what the Mariners are going to do, except for the front office- until they do it.

It's really actually kinda fun to see the baseball community trying really hard to pin down the Mariners' course of action.

This much fuel for the rumor fire does signify to me that Jack has a whole lotta irons in there, though.

Tomorrow, maybe, we'll have something new to love/hate/cry over/sing praises to.


11.  By: outfieldgrass on 12-04-2012 19:16:43
I've also heard rumors the Mariners have contacted the Seahawks about allowing Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas to roam the OF at Safeco. Truth? Seems the Mariners are in on EVERYBODY!

12.  By: TheDudeAbides on 12-04-2012 19:50:03
Churchill,

I know your busy as the CEO of the "I Hate Kyle Seager Fanclub" but do you think we are looking at Dee Gordon to package in a 3 way trade to Arizona?



13.  By: studentofthegame on 12-04-2012 21:08:49
No matter what ultimately happens you cannot deny that Zduriencik has been talking to everyone about improving the Mariners. Which of the 9,000 rumors will come to life is a mystery but it has been a fun few days of speculation.

I guess the only thing that really scares me is that Jason Bay would get a major league deal from the M's. That seems like re-injuring the 25 man roster right after we parted ways with Figgins.

Hopefully they don't waste another roster spot on a less than likely to pan out Rule 5 guy tomorrow. No offense meant to Leutge.

14.  By: rotoenquire on 12-04-2012 21:25:59
Napoli was a serious overpay, so was Victorino. But, some teams have money to spend and will spend it and deal with the aftermath and spend more to compensate for it later.

JackZ does not have that luxury and will make a deal when it makes sense to the club as a whole. What the M's had to recover from takes a very long time.

The Winter Meetings are are like a card game you say a TON and answer nothing. Until you show your cards and win or split the pot.

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