| By Jason A. Churchill | ![]() | By 12-09-2012 |
| 1. By: shemberry on 12-09-2012 21:34:23 What about Viciedo? Real interest there? Cost? |
| 2. By: dangayle on 12-09-2012 21:35:21 It seems to me that the most obvious trading partner we have is the Twins. They need pitching, have hitters. We need hitters, have pitching. If Morneau is in, maybe we move Smoak (or make him part of the deal). If only we still had Fister, he'd make a perfect Twinkie... |
| 3. By: masonb on 12-09-2012 21:39:18 I think this puts a ton of pressure to get a deal done with Hamilton. I think you go 5/125-130 with a team option for the 6th year. You just lost a major trading partner, not just because of Myers, but because of Butler, and possibly Gordon. I'd bet with the Greinke signing, you see the dominos really start to fall really soon. I'm sure that Rays-Royals trade was worked on a ton at the Meetings. I'm sure you'll start to see deals that were hammered out there get finalized. This team has to get a bopper in the lineup though. |
| 4. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-09-2012 21:42:18 I left out Viciedo as well as Dom Brown because they don't appear to fit. |
| 5. By: Paul Martin on 12-09-2012 21:46:59 Missing out on Myers hurts. Tampa Bay really does a nice job. Shields was getting expensive, and in my opinion overrated, and they flipped him for a top hitting prospect cheap and under team control for a long time. Oh well... Yankees already offered Youkilis 12 million. I can't imagine Seattle would pay even half that amount just for some 3B depth. Good article at Ussmariner on possible involvement of Seattle in a 3 or 4 team trade to get Olt from Texas. It seems like other teams are undervaluing our top pitching prospects. I would rather keep them than trade for pieces that can't help us long term. I don't want to give any of the big 3 up for a 1 year rental player. We can develop them further and either use them in Seattle when they mature or flip them later when their value is higher. I still want Hamilton 1st with Swisher a legit fallback option. |
| 6. By: sexymarinersfan on 12-09-2012 21:54:01 Tweet of the day regarding the Myers/Shields trade. "@MikeSilvermanBB: I'm from KC. My daughter asked me what was wrong. Told her. She said, "If the #Rays ask for somebody on your team, you should keep them.''" |
| 7. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-09-2012 22:03:19 Paul, The team that signs Youkilis isn't adding him for "depth." He's starting regularly. And the $12 mil is for one year. If a team offered 2 and 18 he'd go elsewhere. Also, Olt... talk about overrated. He's being tossed around as if he's somewhere near elite. My goodness, he's far from it. Good prospect, not great prospect, and far from elite. And if Seattle gets him and uses him at first, it's a mistake. The dude can play 3B. I don't see a match there, really. |
| 8. By: randyman84 on 12-09-2012 22:07:34 We should just pay up for Hamilton. Swisher would be fine i guess. only two im excited about on the market. I like Hafner too but he should be cheap. Jason how about these right handed bats in a trade... Trumbo(taking Wells and his contract my help the Halos) Alex Rios(sign for 3 more years around 12.5 mil) What about big lefty with some pop Chris Davis(why didnt we take this guy instead of Smoak) Brennan Boesch(another big corner outfielder) and Logan Morrison.. |
| 9. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-09-2012 22:09:54 randy -- Trumbo is vastly overrated. Rios is pricey, doesn't perform well outside The Cell. Boesch can't hit Morrison makes some sense, but it's still a risk. He hasn't stayed healthy and didn't hit when he was in lineup in 2012. |
| 10. By: MarinerCoug on 12-09-2012 22:20:39 God I hope this team can land Swisher... JAC- Even though I know the fit isn't perfect, what might the BoSox now be looking for if they were to try and deal Ellsbury? Also, have his injuries been of the freak variety, or is there growing concern in the industry that he has degenerative issues or is just plain brittle? |
| 11. By: Rudolf on 12-09-2012 23:22:40 Hard to get excited for the Royals, but they did turn an unproven prospect into a #2 starting pitcher and a back-end starter. Too bad it wasn't Price, but that's a little unrealistic. Personally, I'm glad the guy was finally traded because now all the Wil Myers lust can come to an end. Maybe he becomes special and maybe he doesn't. I put my money on doesn't. As far as top hitting prospects go, he is at the top of a weak list in a weak year. Most of all I am happy because Taijuan Walker is still a Mariner. Let's sign Hamilton or Swisher and a good #2/3 starting pitcher, and roll into 2013 with our farm intact. If we can swap a couple non-top 5-prospects for Derek Holland then make it happen. Holland could be special and he has a great contract. |
| 12. By: Edman on 12-09-2012 23:49:00 I'm with you, Rudolf. Back to the more realistic deals for Seattle. Myers would have only ended up in Seattle with another team's help. |
| 13. By: greentunic on 12-10-2012 00:02:26 Jason, What would you put the odds at that the M's do not add a "significant" bat? Because that can be abstract I'll give a default definition of "significant" to be a Bourne-or-better player (Including Hamilton, Swisher, Butler, STANTON!!!, etc). Last one is a joke (but not really..) |
| 14. By: Paul Martin on 12-10-2012 00:17:24 Hamilton will cost at least 5 years 125 million to get him to sign here instead of going back to Seattle. Swisher doesn't have a lot of options right now. I think 4 years for 42-54 million gets him here. Don't see Seattle being willing to overpay for Hamilton. Our best bet was Texas signing Greinke and not having any $$$ left to get in our way... If the Upton trade happens, things could change. Hopefully this "holding pattern" doesn't continue much longer, it is driving me crazy! Hey Jason, why doesn't Seattle try to force Hamilton's hand? Give him their best offer, tell him he has 24 hours to take it or leave it, and then move on if he doesn't? If we are out of the mix, he has very little leverage to get more $$$ out of Texas... |
| 15. By: d2ret on 12-10-2012 01:42:28 Wow. Friedman twisted Moores arm to give him Odorizzi AND Montgomery along with Myers?!?! FLEECED. This deal is going to look nothing but bad for KC down the line. They get no long term value (except the PTBNL), little upside, and they obtained no aces that could give them a good run into the post season. Its really a desparate move. This is one thing I like about Jack Z and his quotes from the winter meetings. You wont see him pull one of these desparation moves. I expect Edman to argue its not desparate, and say the prospects were not proven and muddy the arguement into obscurity. |
| 16. By: Edman on 12-10-2012 01:46:32 Paul, why would Seattle want to immediately eliminate themselves by impose a 24 moratorium on themselves? Do you think that's going to make Hamilton force his hand? He's going to get paid a ridiculous amount of money, do you really think it's doing to force him to suddenly make a decision. Seattle already knows what they are going to offer, and how that might compare to Texas. If they feel they are out of the race monetarily, they've already made plans to move on. They don't need Hamilton to tell them that. |
| 17. By: Edman on 12-10-2012 01:51:02 d2ret, I don't need to say it, you just did. When you can prove it wrong, let me know. |
| 18. By: d2ret on 12-10-2012 02:54:13 They pretty well gutted the farm, including the top hitting prospect in the game and a couple of middle of rotation or better for two years of a no.2 and a no. 4. This is a lot like the Bedard trade, for me. They are tryng to get into contention when they simply dont have the roster. Big win for Friedman. |
| 19. By: d2ret on 12-10-2012 02:59:10 Both of those pitchers are close to the major leagues too. |
| 20. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-10-2012 03:18:15 The idea that the Royals didn't get any long term value is not a fact, just like it's not a fact that the Rays fleeced the Royals. Shields is under club control through 2014 and Davis is under control through 2017, and all it would take to turn this deal around is Myers not maxing out. If he's merely solid, the Rays still win the deal, but it's not the ridiculous highway robbery it could be. I'm not trying to say the Royals made a smart trade because they didn't. But jumping to conclusions on deals involving young, unproven players isn't wise. The Royals are betting that Shields is a No. 2, like he was two years ago, for the next two years, and that Davis can jump into the rotation and be at least a 3. That's certainly a risk. The Rays are gambling, too. They are betting on Matt Moore becoming what we all think he can be and that Chris Archer and Alex Cobb don't fall off the planet for 2013 or at least Jeff Niemann stays healthy. Otherwise, the two arms they just traded will be missed. Yes, the Rays' bet is a better one. How much better remains to be seen. It's also important to note that Odorizzi is far from a sure thing -- ceiling as a good 3, but he could be a 4 or worse, too, as he has some issues to tackle first -- and Montgomery hasn't been able to stay healthy. Hey Jason, why doesn't Seattle try to force Hamilton's hand? Give him their best offer, tell him he has 24 hours to take it or leave it, and then move on if he doesn't? If we are out of the mix, he has very little leverage to get more $$$ out of Texas... Paul, Because Hamilton does have leverage in the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees. Hamilton isn't holding up the Mariners from other deals. They aren't waiting around for him to say yes or no. |
| 21. By: Marco on 12-10-2012 04:16:03 Pretty thin the list of possibilities right now. I wonder how shorter it will be in a month. |
| 22. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-10-2012 04:59:06 I'd bet NEW possibilities present themselves in a month. Once the FAs are gone, clubs start talking about trading players they weren't willing to discuss with the FAs available because the price is never as high with more supply. Two examples could be Carlos Gonzalez and Jay Bruce. |
| 23. By: jgstecker on 12-10-2012 05:42:37 I think Hamilton has to be the next domino to fall. Texas should have a clearer idea of their plans for him with Greinke gone and with two of the rumored 3 or 4-way trade partners taken care of. Seattle can have Hamlton if they want to pay him. I get the feeling texas has a limit that Seattle my be willing to eclipse. Once Hamilton goes, Swisher and Bourn will probably take the best offer they can get. My hunch is that Swisher would much rather be in Seattle than Cleveland and that Bourn would like to get Texas interested in his services as well. At this point it seems clear that Texas and Arizona can't match up on Upton unless Texas changes their mind on Andrus or Profar. Seattle could still factor in as the 3rd team, but if they can land Hamilton AND keep Upton out of Arlington, that'd be a coup for them. |
| 24. By: dewey on 12-10-2012 08:04:32 #5 Paul Are other teams undervaluing our pitching prospects or we over valuing them? Fair question i believe. We better get off sitting on our hands unless we want to fight it out with the Astros for the cellar again. |
| 25. By: baseballman on 12-10-2012 08:41:56 dewey, what makes you think the Mariners are sitting on their hands? Do you understand how difficult it is to sign a player or trade for one? My guess is you don't, which would make a lot of sense... |
| 26. By: dewey on 12-10-2012 09:00:28 KC Can make a deal and we cant? Everyone on this board allways talks about the Royals like there a joke.They took a shot and sometimes you cant just sit on propects you have to trade some of them and yes sometimes you get burned but most of the time they dont turn out .They gave away some good kids but they got 2 proven M.L. starters the idea i thought was to win in Seattle not Baseball Americas prospect rankings if im wrong then im wrong. Baseball man we all our fans of baseball on this site and the Mariners and we all know something about baseball some more then others the insukt wasnt needed and yes i dont like my team in last all the time so i do care. |
| 27. By: Jerry on 12-10-2012 09:25:31 Dewey, The Royals just made an incredibly stupid trade. Pretty much every analysis you'll read is in agreement on this. You want the M's to make a similar move? We tried that before, with the Bedard trade. The "unproven prospects" in that deal turned in to quality ML players in Adam Jones and Chris Tillman. You should NEVER make moves from desperation. Case in point: we could have Asdrubal Cabrera, Shin-Soo Choo, Adam Jones, and Chris Tillman on the roster RIGHT NOW if we hadn't made desperation trades. Look at history before making demands for ill-advised transactions. Whenever the rationale for a move starts with "we can't keep sitting on our hands", it's almost definitely not a good idea. |
| 28. By: Edman on 12-10-2012 09:31:08 dewey, it's not about being able to make a deal, it's about waiting for the right one, with a team that is the right match. Seattle couldn't deal directly with Kansas City, unless they wanted to trade Felix, which wasn't happening. The only way it would have worked was with a three or four team trade. Jack is not going to make a stupid trade, so it's about being patient, and finding the right trade partner. He was able to trade for Montero last year because the Yankees needed a low-cost, high-value pitcher, and they had a low-cost, high-value catcher-DH that they could afford to give up. And Jack will look for that same kind of deal, except he's not necessarily looking at cost, which means it likely will be a ML ready bat. I don't think that we are over-valuing our prospects, especially with Hulzen, Walker, Paxton and now Mauer. That's not the problem. The problem is finding a trade partner that wants a quality young pitcher. Not every team is going to have a need, especislly right now. It's a poker game. Takes more than a couple of hands before you determine if you've won. |
| 29. By: Edman on 12-10-2012 09:44:17 Maurer, not Mauer |
| 30. By: Paul Martin on 12-10-2012 10:00:40 Hey Jason, Is the reason our pitching prospects are not getting us the bat we need right now is because teams are looking to improve their MLB rosters right now, and NOT build up the farm, getting players ready for the future??? If so, is the trade deadline a better time to get pieces for prospects? At the deadline teams are out of the race and looking for the future. Right now every team (even Kansas City!) thinks they have a shot at the title. BTW, my favorite painful desperation trade deadline deal was the year we sent Derek Lowe AND Jason Varitek to Boston for Heathcliffe Slocumb!!! Remember how desperate we were for a closer and bullpen help? It was similiar to our desperation for hitters... Glad Jack isn't going to do something in desperation... |
| 31. By: Paul Martin on 12-10-2012 10:10:52 Why is there such a market for Kevin Youkilis? He is old and he hit .235 with 19 homers and 60 RBI at 3B last year. I understand why the Yankees want him, they lost A-Fraud for at least half the year. But why Seattle? I guess you could play him at 1B, but at Safeco Field, how are his numbers going to look comig off the crappy season he just had? I would rather have Swisher in right field, and if Smoak doesn't get his act together, you play Swisher at 1B. Jason mentions 2 years and 18 million for Youkilis to outbid the Yankees, but I would never make that deal at this stage of the guys career. |
| 32. By: Paul Martin on 12-10-2012 10:12:12 Also, would like to find out if Jesus Montero can play 1B or not. Spring training is a great time to find out... |
| 33. By: Jerry on 12-10-2012 10:22:26 Paul, Maybe Jack et al just think those guys have a lot of talent and that pitching depth is Important. But a big part of it now is value. Remember, Walker struggled a bit late in the season, and hasn't pitched above AA. Hultzen's control completely fell apart late in the season, and he's not viewed as a ML ready guy right out of spring training anymore. There are still real questions about whether Paxton is a starter or reliever. And Maurer is still a bit under the radar, and hasn't yet reached AAA. All these guys are very good prospects, but the two best among them - Walker and Hultzen - had setbacks late in the season. None of these guys is likely at their peak values. Unless a great move comes along, I would wait. All three could be much more valuable (to the M's and as trade chips) at midseason. Thus, the M's would be wise to bring in starters on short-term deals. Guys like Francisco Liriano make sense. They could let those guys get more seasoning in the minors, then have the option to trade either veteran starters or ML ready prospects in July. |
| 34. By: dewey on 12-10-2012 10:38:40 I here you loud and clear on the prospects that have done good there our 50 times guys who have been traded that havent done anything that where big name guys also.To gwt Shields who has been a solid 2 starter and Davis a 4-5th starter fior a guy who has potential a guy who struggled in the minors and a guy who was ok in low A ball and it gives you a chance to win you take your shot.Ive heard real good on Myers and just ok also. Just remember Madritsch,Naggoette,Blackley,Thorton and Rett Johnson one of the better prospect rotations in baseball the last 20 years go back and look at there careers my guy Edman says it best they havent proven anything they may and they may fizzle out and be nothing i would like to win in Seattle is all im saying no risk no reward and maybe no job! |
| 35. By: Edman on 12-10-2012 10:39:51 Two points. First, other teams have scouted all of our top prospects, and know their value, regardless of minor league performances. As far as I can tell, nobody has raised serious doubts about the big three. The timetable may be an issue, and ultimate Major League roles (Paxton as a reliever?). They have a much broader view than we here who only see the general evaluations. Second, Jesus Montero started working out a firstbase during last season. If they feel he can play there, and that's where his value is, then that's where he'll be. From one of Shannon Drayers' reports last year, in the little time he had worked out at the position, he was very rough. Don't assume that because the M's aren't discussing it, that they haven't considered it. They are pretty savvy baseball people who will not miss an opportunity to get his bat in the lineup. |
| 36. By: Edman on 12-10-2012 10:43:16 dewey, not to be a grammer snob, but this isn't a one time event. I'm not picking on you, but thought you would like to know. It's not "...there our 50 times guys"..., it's "...there are 50 times guys..." |
| 37. By: dewey on 12-10-2012 10:45:29 #27 Jerry its easy to cherry pick the ones that went the wrong way but remember you have to have guts to make these moves i personally think KC will win this deal when we all look back 6 years from now.Just my opinion writers allways take there shots at teams but they never revisit there mistakes that the write in the newspapers . |
| 38. By: Juan Valdez on 12-10-2012 11:27:22 I agree with the previous statements about staying away from desperation moves. History has shown that these sorts of moves tend to go against us. Although signing Hamilton or Swisher wouldn't cost us prospects, either deal has the potential to tie up the payroll for several years. This is why, of the two, I prefer Swisher. I don't agree with meaningless statements like "the Mariners need to make a splash this offseason!" What the Mariners need are more legitimate major league players up and down the roster. They need fewer offensive black holes. I thought last year they made quite a bit of progress towards this goal. My thinking, mid-season, was that they don't need a superstar(s) so much as they simply need solid, veteran, average to above-average players, preferably two or more of them. An aspect of all of this that gets forgotten (not so much here but more in the larger conversation outside this blog) is that the young roster that we have now won't always be what it was last year. Kyle Seager may not have the upside, but he will likely continue to improve (if only marginally) as he progresses along his age curve. The same could be said of Jesus Montero. Ackley and Smoak are question marks, but I think it's clear that the history of young players in baseball is filled with examples of players having bad seasons and then getting better. And then, behind those guys we have players moving closer to the major leagues in Zunino, Franklin, Romero, and Miller. If Ackley and Smoak don't work out, there are other guys that can step in and at least take their shot at it. This team will get better, with or without Josh Hamilton, Nick Swisher, Cody Ross, Dayan Viciedo, etc. Also, Franklin Gutierrez is apparently healthy and playing regularly in Venezuela right now. |
| 39. By: rjfrik on 12-10-2012 11:27:51 If I remember right Dewey has dyslexia or some other reading/writing impediment. So let's cut him some slack guys. Jerry is spot on and Edman to an extent as well. Teams know the value of our best prospects and the fact of the matter is our best prospects haven't sniffed the MLB yet. These aren't guys, like Montero of two years ago, who had a cup of coffee. These are guys just graduating AA. It's going to be about another year before all of our big prospects have better trade value. Look at Montgomery, the Royal who was just traded to the Rays, he was a top pitching prospect two years ago in AA. He was regarded as the next big thing for the Royals. He couldn't get past AAA or hasn't as of yet, in fact he was awful in AAA. So expecting us to nab some "Great" MLB bat for our prospects is a little unrealistic and most likely we will have to wait into next year (deadline) until we can see a trade like that. By then all of the big 4 should have shown the league how much value they have by their play on the field. So to think we had a shot at Myers without the help of some other team or teams is unrealistic. If we hadn't traded Fister or Pineda then we would have had a shot to make that trade. But we traded those guys for bats a year ago. Fister and other pieces might have been able to do it. I think we are trying to pull the cart before the horse here. As fans we all want the M's to be good and compete, but sometimes you have to play the cards you are dealt and in this case the cards JZ has in front of him are too go all in on Hamilton, if he will sign with us, which is looking a little daunting at the moment, or sit and wait for his cards to gain more value. I think he does the latter. I think Hamilton returns to Texas and Jack will be forced to hold his cards for another year. Bourn is a bad fit for us and is on the wrong side of 32 and frankly so is Swisher. Plus Swisher doesn't want to come here any ways. So the only thing we can do is to be patient. We are in a lot of ways like the Royals were last year. A young team with a lot of pieces that need to develop, but also a team that needs a few "key" pieces to be competitive. The Royals has to wait one year before they went "all in". I think the M's are in the same situation. I think next year/off season is the year where we make all the trades and signings. It just doesn't seem like there's a good fit anywhere this year. You can't fit a square peg in a round hole. When you do you end up with Bedard and Figgins. |
| 40. By: maqman on 12-10-2012 11:36:35 Walker started to struggle after the All Star break. It has since turned out that was when he found out his mother, who he is very close to, has breast cancer. That can hit a 19-year old young man very hard. He still has the stuff that makes him very valuable. I'm fine with the way Z is doing things, the competition for Hamilton and Swisher is reduced and their possible deals with it. Cleveland signed Mark Reynolds for one year and $6MM. That may end their possible competition for Swisher. Waiting for the market to come to you is smart but it takes guts. I'll be surprised if Hamilton doesn't end up back with Texas but if we do get him it should be a reasonable deal. The buy Swisher and trade for Morse option is still my preferred outcome. I still don't expect KC to win the AL Central and not doing so will expose the true value of their trade with the Rays and their other acquisitions this off-season. The Rays own the template for smart management. Dayton Moore is Bavasi lite. |
| 41. By: Panhead55 on 12-10-2012 13:27:36 #31 Paul Why the interest in Youkilis? Probably because he can take a walk. Even in a down year of batting .235, his OBP was .336. His career OBP is .384. If nothing else he could be a great mentor for our young kids. I'm not saying we should sign him, but I understand the interest. |
| 42. By: dewey on 12-10-2012 16:51:11 Yep Edman and rjfk i dont write our spell well i get it and not good on the computer either but i did stay at a holiday inn last night .. |
| 43. By: Lailoken on 12-10-2012 17:14:59 Youk can also play 1B, 3B, or DH. Pretty good fit for a team with a shaky situation at 1B & a very tradeable commodity at 3B. Youk also has some pop in his bat. He's a legit middle-of-the-order bat. Not a star but a very good player & this team needs hitters who can fit that description. One name not mentioned in this thread is Headley. The Padres don't mind the idea of spending some money but if he doesn't sign an extension with them it makes sense for the Pads to trade him. If the M's can add a significant bat like Hamilton, Youkilis, or Choo & a decent starting pitcher through FA getting Headley for a package of Seager & Vargas (whose skillset is perfect for Petco) might be worthwhile as a put us over the top type of trade. Like Lee, Headley is enough of a talent you can recoup a lot of value if you trade him if you fall out of contention & he's worth that $13M tender if he goes to FA too. If he likes Seattle maybe he signs an extension. Better defender & hitter than Seager. This offseason is far from over & the team could very well get to the point where a slight upgrade here or there is worth the risk. |
| 44. By: Paul Martin on 12-10-2012 17:53:20 @43 I guess you and I will disagree on Youkilis. Either way, he won't be coming to Seattle (thank God!) and at year end when you see his numbers you will be glad Seattle didn't sign him either. I would love to pick up Chase Headley, but your package of Vargas and Seager would not be enough. Headley isn't a free agent until 2015, and I see the Padres moving him, especially for that! I am fine with Seager at 3B anyway... We can sign Swisher right now to play RF/1B and fix our need (3B is not our biggest need). I think a 3 or 4 year deal brings him to Seattle. Once Hamilton goes back to Texas (Seattle won't win a bidding war for him as much as I would love to have him), look for Jack to sign Swisher. |
| 45. By: Paul Martin on 12-10-2012 17:54:44 I meant to say "don't see the Padres moving him..." |
| 46. By: Edman on 12-10-2012 18:31:20 I must say, it is rather nice to see Texas not get the frosting and the cake, just because they want it. |
| 47. By: Wishhiker on 12-10-2012 19:31:33 I don't think the offense is as bad as most see it. The power isn't as light as it seems. Starting with Smoak and Saunders at 19 hr, Seager at 20 last year. I went back and watched Smoaks hr from last year and there are 2 distinct differences in his early shots and after retooling. His early swings had a slower leg kick on the front leg giving him less time to synchronize the swing to the pitch and he seemed to hit them harder keeping both hands on the bat throughout the swing from both sides after making adjustments. We're not talking about just a handful of AB. I'm sure you've all seen the #s before but after coming back up August 14 he had 42 games, 160 PA, 139 AB, 18 R, 40 H, 8 2b, 6 HR, 13 RBI, 20 BB, 1 IBB, 26 K for .288/.375/.475. Also this was kind of Smoaks sophomore year, after starting 2010 in the minors. I'm not saying he will be that good going forward, just that I have more hope for it happening than I see anywhere. Ackley had an ankle injury that possibly added to his sophomore jinx year. The chances of Smoak, Seager, Saunders, Ackley and Montero being cumulatively better at "not making outs" and getting extra base hits seem pretty good to me. Adding 2 bats that are considered good for.330+ OBP and 20+ hr to those 5 could make this a good lineup with that upside still intact. With the quantity of young pitching pushing up, there's decent possibility for something special happening this year or next. Especially if they don't have to trade any or much of it to add those bats to the lineup. I think Jason Bay is getting completely short changed too. People point to him having been the Mets' Figgins, but that is not true on several levels. His trouble was more related to DL time and in 2010/2011 he put up a .251/.337/.386 combined, good for 100 OPS+. Last year, only Seager, Saunders, Jaso and Guti were above 100 OPS+. And Figgins was 84 in his first year, 70 OPS+ his first 2 combined. Saying that it wouldn't be good to count on Bay to get back there or be able to get back to the 130+OPS+ he put up at 30 and under is one thing. All I've been reading is that there's no possible upside. It's not conceivable that being closer to home and further from the onset of concussion symptoms allows him the ability to be an above league average bat for another year? 2012 was a horrible year for him, but the only peripheral in that year that's vastly different from before is a .185 BABIP. Age 30, 31 and 32 were bad and just looking at the #s I understand the idea, but the numbers didn't give him concussion symptoms. Maybe he never approaches what he was in his twenties again, but that's not the same as saying there's no possibility. I think taking a chance on Bay right now is way smarter than taking a chance on Figgins. The only comparable I see is 4 year contracts that didn't work out, with the last year being eaten by the team. |
| 48. By: rjfrik on 12-10-2012 21:19:46 Another thing about Smoak. If the fences were moved in last year to where they are going to be next year, you could potentially add 11 HR's to his total and add .35 points on this average. All of the sudden you have a .250 hitter with 30 HRs. I remember when Jason brought this up and you can look at a spray chart of all of Smoak's HR's and outs that were outside of the new walls. I think we will be pleasantly surprised next year with our young guys and I think the front office knows this. I don't think the offense is going to be as dire as some think it might and because of this if JZ doesn't get the right trade or right contract I think he will be comfortable waiting into next year to make any big moves. |
| 49. By: Paul Martin on 12-10-2012 21:28:56 @48 well, gee wiz! We brought the hometown local boy Bay back home, we have all of these wonderful young kids that are developing nicely, and we don't want to take away any playing time from them! I guess the roster is set (minus a couple fringe/cheap free agent signings) and we are all ready for spring training. Plus we have a new big scoreboard to watch the hydroplane races!!! Marketing is even working on promotions to honor the 1995 and 2001 teams throughout the season. You gotta love these guys!!! |
| 50. By: Wishhiker on 12-10-2012 21:46:16 Did somebody say it's a great lineup now? I was just saying it's better than most think. I would absolutely add at least 1 more bat to the middle of the lineup and an OF corner. Just saying that Jaso, Ackley, Smoak, Saunders, Montero and Seager are 6 bats I'm happy going forward with. 2 outfield corners are the easiest upgrade overall. SS, I'm happy with Brendan and Nick. Catcher has Zunino in the wings too. Bay is a chance at a productive corner that's possibly about equal to Wells but with more potential boom or bust extremes. I don't think anybody was saying that they are or should be done with acquisitions, though. I'd like Hamilton and a corner guy with pop and options to add to that. |
| 51. By: Wishhiker on 12-10-2012 21:50:58 Plus a backup catcher and improvement on the Beaven/#5 starter slot. Those should be doable fairly cheap in comparison to the outfield bats. |
| 52. By: VikingArthur on 12-10-2012 22:29:42 Could the Royals lost the deal? Sure. If it fails... they are what they have been, a team with 70 wins every year. If it works out.... they could win the division! KC HASN'T WON ANYTHING IN 25 YEARS! Trading some 21 year old kid for two legit starters (one being a frontliner who has pitched in actual pressure situations in games that matter) can't be seen as anything other than taking future assets and expected value and exchanging it for present value. Kansas City sees the division as winnable. It is. They figured they needed a couple of arms to do it. They went and got them. Could they have given up the next superstar? Sure. You have to understand the windows teams like KC (and Tampa) work in... by 2014-15 when Myers will have really hit his stride the other guys (Butler, Gordon, Moose, Cain, Perez, Hosmer) start to get spendy. The truth is their young offensive core is good enough to compete. The M's WISH they had six guys like that in their lineup... they don't have ONE! Teams like the Royals have a one or two year window every 6-8 years when they can realistically go for it. They are going for it and I applaud them for it. |
| 53. By: Wishhiker on 12-10-2012 23:09:14 I see that. I wouldn't say the Ms have a comparable lineup. They do have I think a still slightly better present and much better future in pitching commodities than KC though. Going after Hamilton, Swisher and all the other names is an option for going for it that the Ms have and are using, which the Royals do not. I'd rather use the next few years low cost of rising players myself and play with the money they're saving while being in a larger income situation in Seattle. I don't envy the Royals. Seattle could have gone after Greinke and kept Myers in the same situation. They don't have to trade Walker to fill the offensive void in the OF corners, they can afford to sign a guy and keep Walker and his future potential. I'm not saying Walker is worth the same as Myers, just as an approximation. |
| 54. By: VikingArthur on 12-10-2012 23:36:18 How insane is the baseball world? Royals fans can exclaim "Holy shit... we are going to try to win the division and I like our chances" while Mariners fans hang their hats on Jason Bay and Justin Smoak!!!! Just saying... As much as I'd like to get Hamilton, I have come around to the idea of getting Swisher OR Youk to play 1b. Youkilis is productive when healthy and honestly his body breaking down seems to be tied to the Sox trying to play him at 3b which he can't handle. Give him 2 years, 16 million with big time incentives and that are attainable with decent health and let him play 1b/DH. I would just like to see one or two real MLB bats in the lineup to get rid of the black holes in the lineup. Don't break the bank for the long term... but realistically if we don't spend something this year, they will just pocket it, never to be seen again. |
| 55. By: StandinPat on 12-11-2012 00:06:56 'KC HASN'T WON ANYTHING IN 25 YEARS! Trading some 21 year old kid for two legit starters (one being a frontliner who has pitched in actual pressure situations' Do people really still think this way? I thought most of the baseball community and people in general that spend the time to visit sites like this had moved past this archaic way of thinking. How is this not the same flawed thinking that spurned the Bedard, Broussard, Perez, Slocumb, Timlin/Spauljeric(yeah i know this one is spelled wrong) do I need to go on type deals? You know what would make the Royals a successful club? Having the best roster possible. Not more pitching, not more hitting, not more veterans, not more youth, more talent, it's really that simple. And now they really don't have any more talent than they started with, but they are on the hook for more money, with less years of control for said talent. This is not the direction you should want your club to go in. |
| 56. By: Juan Valdez on 12-11-2012 00:36:18 Take a look at Smoak's road numbers. I'm not saying they're awesome or anything, but there is at least some reason to believe in the guy. Smoak and Seager both had absolutely huge home/road splits. Pretty amazing actually. |
| 57. By: d2ret on 12-11-2012 01:04:16 Ok, Im officially itchy for an M's transaction... |
| 58. By: VikingArthur on 12-11-2012 01:04:30 @55 If baseball was a computer simulation game like OOTP... then yes, you'd be right. It is not... Wil Myers's PECOTA doesn't mean shit in the real world until he does it. The Royals want to win and win this year. That is what they are trying to do and given that, the trade they made makes a ton of sense. This trade for the Royals is similar in some respects to the Montero/Pineda trade. One team (KC) has an excess number of young position players with projectible upside. Some of them have already shown some of that (Moose, Hosmer, Cain, Butler) and Myers hasn't had the shot yet. The Rays have an excess (in their mind) of starting pitching and, again in their mind, can stand to lose a very good pitcher in order to POTENTIALLY get an All-star level OF. It is possible that Myers goes apeshit, becomes a triple crown threat and Shields and Davis have their arms fall off. Sure. **Funny that Davis was a BIG TIME prospect just a couple of years ago** Is it possible that Myers becomes Joe Average MLB OFer and the Shields delivers 230 quality innings, pitches the Royals into the WS with Hosmer, Moose, Butler and Gordon getting hot at the right time and winning the Series? Sure... not likely but it is nearly just as likely as Myers becoming Babe Ruth and Shields/Davis becoming non factors overnight. All this talk of "assets" is useless if your goal is not to win the World Series in any way possible. Of course, to guys like you it would be preferable to win 85-90 games every year and watch when flawed teams catch lightning in a bottle for a year to win it all. I'd rather win one WS in 20 years and have an aggregate record under .500 than win 86 games every year. To say that KC is stupid for trying to win something, for once, by trading a completely unproven guy for a couple of arms who will help them this year with their stated goal of winning is asinine. Risky? Yes... purely stupid (when you take into account all the facts laid out)...No. |
| 59. By: VikingArthur on 12-11-2012 01:22:13 The bottom line is that for a small market team, you get one shot every 6-8 years where things come together to make a run at winning something. If you hold off and wait until next year, one of your studs leaves via free agency, the next, your ace blows his arm out, etc. Next year is always next year...sometimes you have to go for it, especially when you are a small market team like KC. |
| 60. By: Wishhiker on 12-11-2012 01:36:53 The Ms are potentially a couple years back on that same type of window. Felix being the biggest difference. With having him and having the cash to add at least one good player to fill a need the window can be extended. There are certain to still be growing pains from some, but it seems to me an attempt at opening that window with this offseason is a good choice. If contracts do continue to increase how bad would $23 million actually be in 2018? Especially if TV deals continue even without increasing more in the next few years. Dodgers:$240 Million + a year...seriously? $100 million from an RSN could put you pretty close to the luxury threshold in available payroll in Seattle. Especially if they're getting enough improvements in the offseason to win more often along the way. They need branding for RSN value to be higher too, making any present investment a potential future boon. Right now spending money has a greater than usual chance to bring in even more money for the Mariners. An over .500 team would probably begin bringing some fans back too. Shooting for 90 wins in a normal "is it worth going for it?" scenario makes sense, but attendance trends and RSN contract situation are not normal. I think any added wins now are expanded by the worth in both of those situations improving this year. |
| 61. By: Wishhiker on 12-11-2012 01:46:32 I wonder what value difference an RSN would put between Swisher and Hamilton. |
| 62. By: CelticRon on 12-11-2012 06:55:34 I would like to see the M's get Choo. What would it take to get him away from Cleveland. Wasn't he sent to Cleveland by that great (???) GM of ours BOOOvasi? |
| 63. By: sexymarinersfan on 12-11-2012 09:35:01 Does anyone know...assuming we don't sign any key from now until next year, what our payroll will look like? I know Gutierrez and Figgins' contract fall off the books. It's gotta be down around sub $50 million by then right? |
| 64. By: sexymarinersfan on 12-11-2012 09:41:06 The reason I ask is that I think Jack Z is trying to create as much wiggle room AND THEN SOME, before he signs Felix to an extension. He obviously knows he's the most valuable piece to this team. In case it gets crazy, which it probably will, the's will be able to out I'd literally EVERYONE when that time comes. Now is not the time to be signing crazy big deals for players who are on the WRONG side of 30. Those guys will be offered much shorter years of service. |
| 65. By: dewey on 12-11-2012 09:43:14 So Myers 140 punchouts against minor legue talent isnt a red flag for anyone? Im just wondering Shields has been a 200 plus inning guy per year and doeble digit wins on a team that doesnt score much sounds a little like Felix to me not saying he is Felix but this is a guy who has pitched in the alledged best division in baseball his whole career that has to meen something i would think. |
| 66. By: maqman on 12-11-2012 09:56:50 Choo is a declining player who's contract expires after next season. His agent is Boras. I get that everyone is antsy for Z to make a move, me too. I still trust Z to make a move that makes sense. |
| 67. By: Edman on 12-11-2012 10:04:14 I know this is a prospects site, but it is not the goal of any Major League team to have the best prospects in baseball. It's a sound business decision to maintain your product, but it's not a goal. The ultimate goal is to get to the World Series, or at least into the playoffs. Prospects are chips in a poker game that allow teams go fill needs. Wil Myers may be the next best thing to Mike Trout, or a slightly different versions of Michael Saunders. Only time will tell. Baseball teams are full of guys who tore up the minor leagues. That is not a passport to greatness. That's why it's worth it for the Royals to take a shot now, while they have a good, young offensive core. Windows can be short, so you have to take advantage when they open up. Not every team can spend like the higher revenue teams. So, the next best thing to cash are good prospects. Looking at MLB Trade Rumors, most observers are split about who won the trade. That says it's about as fair as you can get, initially. |
| 68. By: VikingArthur on 12-11-2012 10:31:37 Oh cmon Edman... you know the goal of every franchise is to accumluate guys who have monster PECOTA's in 2015 :). Trading prospects for immediate needs (like the Slocumb trade) is almost always a bad idea. A deal done in the offseason to acquire a player who fits your teams goals is quite another. If Myers doens't become a major star, the Royals did very well. |
| 69. By: Docmilo on 12-11-2012 11:35:32 #64 Sexy M's Fan, who says Felix is going to want to sign an extension if the club isn't vying for an AL West title? Before you can show Felix the money, you need to show him the commitment. Celtic Ron, Choo's value at this time may be less than a 2015 Supplemental pick. His fielding may be in decline. He was awful vs lefties last year hitting under .200. If he doesn't rebound he's not worth offering a contract to in the 2014 season. Trading for Choo could be throwing away prospects. Thames may be the better left handed bat come 2014. I would rather go with Wells/Thames in RF this year than Choo. Just me. |
| 70. By: rjfrik on 12-11-2012 11:57:26 Who gives a rip about the Royals. So they traded their big prospects for a couple of pitchers. Great. It has nothing to do with the M's. About the M's. The Indians want young pitching (prospects) for Choo and they will want one of the big four. No way in hell I make that trade. Choo is as good as gone after next year. Why throw away a top prospect like that for one year of a declining player. I never said that the Mariners were a perfect team but you have to look at the big picture. The fences are moving in and if you look specifically at Saunders, Smoak and Seager's outs last year, a nice portion of them would not be outs next year. They would be HR's or hits off the wall. If the walls were moved in last year we would not be so up in arms over our offense because all of those guys could have hit 25+ HRs and Seager and Smoak could have reached 30+. There is no need to rush into a bad contract out of desperation. It might be best served to fill needs creatively and wait until the deadline next year when teams start dealing good players and when our prospects have gained value and frankly I think JZ knows this. Then next offseason the M's as a whole will look a lot more attractive to potential free agents and front office execs. We should want to build value with the current club and the farm system. The more value we have the better we become via trades and free agents wanting to sign here. With that said. I hope they can get Hamilton. |
| 71. By: Rudolf on 12-11-2012 12:35:55 I'm glad you included that last sentence, rjfrik, because we have a gaping hole(s) in the outfield that must be addressed in the next few months. As of now we have Saunders, Gutierrez, Thames, Wells, Bay, and Carp to fill three spots. Saunders looks like a 500 AB player--maybe-- but the others don't. Gutierrez should be good for 300 ABs between the injuries-- anything more is a bonus. Thames/Wells could platoon in RF, conceivably. Carp and Bay are AAA guys waiting for a chance, IMO. CF- Gutierrez/? RF- Wells/Thames platoon LF- Saunders That's a lousy outfield, the same as last year. If we add Swisher, Hamilton, or Ross, the outfield looks better. CF- Saunders LF- Wells/Thames RF- Swisher #4 OF- Gutierrez I don't know if the M's plan on carrying five outfielders or not, but they can't possibly plan on full-time AB's from Gutierrez. Maybe they view Wells as a full-time option, or Thames, but they look best as a platoon tandem. Regardless of the natural growth of our young players, we need some upgrades in the outfield for 2013 or the "black holes on offense" will continue to kill rallies. Black Holes: Brendan Ryan, Thames/Wells, Gutierrez's replacement when he's injured. That's three current black holes, not counting Justin Smoak if he flops. We should try to get that down to one, *Brendan Ryan. Choo is an option if he comes cheap enough. Maybe Anthony Fernandez + gets it done. I agree with rj that one of the big four is too much to pay. Willingham is an option. He has two years left so he might be worth a slightly higher price than Choo. Maybe Maurer and Thames gets it done? For all we know, Willingham will outproduce Wil Myers over the next two or three years. If we were to trade for Willingham (Maurer, Thames), and sign Ross (3/28) we could upgrade the outfield for minimal $$ and prospect commitments, and retain the hallowed 12th pick. We could spend 4/48 on EJax (or someone like him) and have the following line-up for under $90 million: 2B- Ackley C- Jaso LF- Ross RF- Willingham 3B- Seager DH- Montero 1B- Smoak CF- Saunders SS- Ryan 1- Felix 2- EJax 3- Iwakuma 4- Vargas 5- Erasmo 6- Hultzen |
| 72. By: rjfrik on 12-11-2012 14:14:28 I like Ross signing and targeting Willingham. I think, as you said, it upgrades the offense, keeps are big prospects and sets us up nicely to add final pieces next off season. For some reason I think we might get Hamilton though. Daniels has been on record as coveting Upton and he damn near got him at the winter meetings. I think AZ, TX and CLE revisit the trade that almost happened and Daniels gets his man. Once Upton gets to TX I think Hamilton will realize the writing on the wall there and I think JZ will pay big bucks to get him in an M's uni. Just my two cents, but I like our chances. |
| 73. By: rjfrik on 12-11-2012 14:18:50 I like Ross signing and targeting Willingham. I think, as you said, it upgrades the offense, keeps are big prospects and sets us up nicely to add final pieces next off season. For some reason I think we might get Hamilton though. Daniels has been on record as coveting Upton and he damn near got him at the winter meetings. I think AZ, TX and CLE revisit the trade that almost happened and Daniels gets his man. Once Upton gets to TX I think Hamilton will realize the writing on the wall there and I think JZ will pay big bucks to get him in an M's uni. Just my two cents, but I like our chances. |
| 74. By: rjfrik on 12-11-2012 14:21:19 And as I type the Indians and Reds are in deep talks to trade Choo for Stubbs and Gregorius. Gregorius will give the tribe a SS so they can turn around and trade Cabrera. I'm sure this was the big hold up in the winter meetings for the tribe: They didn't have an immediate replacement for Cabrera and wanted one before shipping him off. If the above trade happens then you could see Upton becoming a Ranger very soon in my opinion. |
| 75. By: rth1986 on 12-11-2012 14:49:47 If the Choo trade happens (which is a nice deal for both sides, by the way), then I think it's likely that Cleveland trades Cabrera for Upton and the Rangers sign Hamilton. That would leave Swisher for the Mariners, which I think would be for the best. I do like the suggestion of adding Ross, Willingham and Jackson, though. Nice cheap alternative. Although, I think Ross at 3/$28m is too much. |
| 76. By: Paul Martin on 12-11-2012 16:09:50 ESPN reporting Kevin Youkilis signs with NY!! Glad we got rid of that rumor where he goes to Seattle. Predictions: 1. Hamilton goes to Texas 2. Seattle fights it out with Boston and Cleveland for the services of Nick Swisher. 3. Hope we get Swisher because I don't want Bourn. Even with a suppressed market, no way Boras lets him go cheap. Maybe Bourn signs a one year deal for a high $$$ number, and enter the market next year. Because Seattle is such a poor hitters park, no way he comes here on a one year deal. Beltre went to Boston for a year, put up huge numbers, and got paid the following year. Bourn will likely follow a similar path, especially with all the teams looking for center fielders filling their needs elsewhere. |
| 77. By: Alpha Blu on 12-11-2012 17:20:05 Except Safeco is no longer the poor hitters' park you claim it is. They moved the fences in, so no one is really sure how it'll play, but it definitely won't be the graveyard it used to be. Agents have been quoted as saying our moving the fences in makes the Mariners more attractive to their clients. |
| 78. By: Paul Martin on 12-11-2012 17:32:53 The reputation of being a poor hitters park is not going to change overnight. We don't know what affect the new ballpark dimensions will have. You can't measure the psychological affect a smaller park will have on hitter's minds when they come to the plate. If offensive numbers improve and the park plays more fairly, then going forward it will help. At this point, I don't see hitters signing 1 year contracts here, betting their financial futures on an unknown ballpark, when they can go to hitter friendly parks in Boston or NY, pad their stats, and compete at the same time. Seattle also has a weak offensive lineup that provides no protection for a free agent. That is why signing Hamilton is so important. With him in the fold, another player would be more likely to come knowing they have Hamilton helping our in the middle of the order. |
| 79. By: whereswoody on 12-11-2012 17:37:48 Morneau!!! Lets bring the Canadian to Seattle |
| 80. By: whereswoody on 12-11-2012 17:40:51 If the mariners dont win the Hamilton Sweepstakes I think you'll see Jack make a move for a player that was not listed. I think a package with franklin and either Hultzen/Paxton will be the offer to land a big time hitter. Z isn't gonna wait around once(if) Hamilton signs with another team |
| 81. By: titans12 on 12-11-2012 17:55:24 Trade for Dexter Fowler and sign Swisher: 1- Fowler CF 2- Ackley 2B 3- Swisher RF 4- Montero DH 5- Seager 3B 6- Smoak 1B 7- Jaso C 8- Saunders/Gutti LF 9- Ryan/Andino SS |
| 82. By: rotoenquire on 12-11-2012 18:18:29 Fowler may cost more than you want too pay. The deal is done with the D-Backs, Reds and Indians. See who all the other players involved are. Could have another 3 names added too this. Is Boston having buyers remorse with Napoli and realized they offered too much? lol |
| 83. By: Edman on 12-11-2012 18:41:26 D-Backs included Bauer in the trade? They must have soured on him really quick. Fowler isn't leaving Colorado unless there is an overpay, so lets not move from Myers to Fowler. roto, do you mind sharing why you say that Boston is having buyer's remorse? Not sure what that's all about. |
| 84. By: rotoenquire on 12-11-2012 19:01:30 Napoli had a problem with the physical. Napoli's ankle has something that doesn't look right according to reports. |
| 85. By: Rudolf on 12-11-2012 19:06:23 Bauer went cheap! Dude must have serious personality issues. Gregorious, Sipp and Lars Anderson sounds a light for just about anyone, let alone a top-5 pitching prospect. JAC, what happened there? Is there more than meets the eye with Gregorious? |
| 86. By: dewey on 12-11-2012 19:29:41 I keep hearing we will be a better hitting team when they move the fences in. The other teams dont have problems hitting in or park remember the fences or moved in for them also..lol |
| 87. By: Panhead55 on 12-11-2012 20:10:39 We missed out on Will Myers. Let's go get the other major league ready monster bat. Trade Felix to the Cardinals for Oscar Taveras and Shelby Miller. Use the Felix money to sign Hamilton and Edwin Jackson. Jackson gives us a downgrade at SP, but Hamilton and Taveras would give our offense a much bigger upgrade than what we lose at pitching. Now we'd have the big 5, in Miller, Walker Hulzen, Paxton, and Maurer. Taveras is the next Vlad Guererro and he'd be totally cost contained along with future rotation. |
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