| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 11-27-2012 |
The Seattle Mariners' two North Carolina products know each other well, having played together in college and come up through the minors one right after the other, and even playing together for a short period of time in Triple-A Tacoma.The two are similar in a lot of ways; they both bat left-handed, throw right-handed and play the infield. Each are right around 6 feet tall, give or take an inch, and both were 2009 draftees.
Both also are good defensive players at their respective positions and were born about three months apart. They do have differences, however, starting with the results put forth in 2012.
So, which is more valuable to the Mariners if they were to trade one of them? Good question.
I've been holding this piece for a month because of other hot-button issues and I am glad I did so because the buzz this winter has changed the dynamic.
Dustin Ackley
Ackley struggled in 2012, and to a point that has scouts doubting whether or not he may not be the hitter everyone expected him to be. The strikeouts were high -- 124 -- and he batted just .226 for the year.
He did show the pop the M's believed was there, hitting 12 home runs, but he managed just two triples and 22 doubles, a very mild total for a player that stepped into the batter's box almost 700 times.
Ackley did draw 59 walks and showed good instincts on the bases, and his defense answered a lot of questions -- he's now an average glove at second base, if not above average.
Why Ackley struggled so much is unclear to me, but I believe it starts with his mechanics. The first half of the year his entire front side was leaking out early and lunging toward the hole between first and second base. He fixed his feet in this manner at the all-star break, stepping toward the pitcher, but his hips and front shoulder still drifted out too soon.
The result is often a dead-pull hitter that will get himself out a lot and one that can be pitched to, particularly off the middle-in area of the strike zone. Ackley batted .212 on pitches in the lower half of the strike zone and off the middle of the plate -- inner third or outer third -- and just .208 on pitches right down broad street.
He also hit just .251 on fastballs -- the league average is .281, and just .196 on sliders; .182 from LHPs, .200 from RHPs.
The areas where he produced included the top of the strike zone, both in the middle of the zone and the outer third. He also torched changeups and curveballs.
One of Ackley's issues was chasing pitches out of the zone. He chased more than a quarter of pitches thrown to him off the plate and in, and just under 20 percent of those thrown down and out of the zone, including those in the dirt.
This isn't something he did in 2011, or in the minors. During his 90-game rookie campaign, Ackley chased 13 percent of pitches out of the zone, compared to 22.8 percent this past season. Clearly he was pressing and trying to force the issue.
I'm sure the injury was a factor after May when he first hurt his heel that required a minor procedure in October, but it doesn't explain away the struggles.
To succeed at the levels expected of him, he'll need to clean up the mechanics and go the other way consistently, perhaps giving up a bit of pull power in the process. Ackley will also need to get stronger this offseason, both for obvious reasons and for durability and endurance purposes.
Despite his struggles, Ackley is under contract through 2013 and under club control through 2016. He'll earn $2.7 million in 2013 but will not be eligible for arbitration until after the 2014 season with free agency slated for three years later.
The upside to Ackley remains a .290 or better hitter with moderate power, 15-20 steals and solid defense, and it's worth mentioning his .265 BABIP is quite low and bound to spike in 2013. Overall, that's a valuable commodity. He's not dirt cheap, but more than affordable for any club in a trade scenario.
Ackley's value also gets a boost because if necessary he can play first base or the outfield, though he hasn't played the outfield since the Arizona Fall League in November, 2009.
Kyle Seager
Seager was a nice surprise in 2012, smacking 20 home runs and lacing 35 doubles. He ended the year having batted .259 with a .316 on-base percentage, and proved to any doubters that he's an above-average defensive third baseman.
Seager made strides in terms of plate coverage and his offseason strength program clearly paid off with a smoother swing that produced the 56 extra-base hits, which ranked third among American League third baseman, behind only Miguel Cabrera and Adrian Beltre.
He showed good doubles power to left-center field, though he does strike out a bit too much (110 in 2012) and could stand to draw more walks, something he improved over the second half.
Seager's swing helps the extra-base power, as it's engineered for fly balls, and he, too, could get a slight boost from a slightly luckier BABIP (.286) next season.
Scouts like Seager quite a bit, though he's less likely to get significantly better in the average and on-base areas, and has less overall upside than does Ackley. It's my opinion that a bit lighter bat and a more sound, line-drive swing would better serve him, perhaps improving the hit tool ceiling by a half grade. It's ideal, especially considering Seager's doubles and home run power isn't likely to sink with the home ballpark becoming more hitter friendly for 2013.
Seager, a natural second baseman, has a great arm for the position and an average one for third base in terms of strength. Many clubs would love to plug in Seager at second and bat him second, but considering the lack of third base depth in baseball, he also fits at the hot corner in a similar fashion as did Placido Polanco when he first arrived in Philadelphia, or Ty Wigginton a few years back.
Trade Value
When it comes down to which player has more trade value, it depends on the club and their needs. The New York Mets, for example, could use either player at second base, but could value Ackley a little more, shooting for upside as they head toward contention in 2014.
A club such as the Chicago White Sox, however, would almost certainly value Seager, as they have an opening at third base, and have a few in-house options at second.
In a vacuum, most clubs are going to prefer the player with a more reliable track record, and that's Seager after one full season in the majors.
In the end, the M's aren't shopping either player and in my opinion are more likely to be willing to part with Seager for two reasons; one, Seager probably has a little bit more value right now -- and may never be more valuable -- and two, they'd likely be selling low on Ackley.
Many will ask whether Nick Franklin's presence has an impact, and the answer is no. Clubs shouldn't -- and don't -- value a player less because they have depth at his position. Doing so weakens their negotiation stance with other clubs. Besides, the Mariners believe in Franklin at shortstop.
In conclusion, I believe Seager is slightly more valuable on the trade market overall, but certain clubs -- those that can take the risk and wait a little longer -- may prefer Ackley because of the upside he brings in comparison.
trade-value:-dustin-ackley-vs.-kyle-seager
Comments
The following 26 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: Paul Martin on 11-27-2012 04:24:59 I wouldn't trade either one right now. I would like to see how they do in the Safeco field dimensions. I think Ackley will rebound next year. Not ready to write him off at all. |
| 2. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-27-2012 05:07:06 I don't think anyone is ready to write him off. Too much natural talent. |
| 3. By: Mekias on 11-27-2012 07:01:11 I thought we had Ackley under control for 5 more years until the end of the 2017 season. I still believe in Ackley but I'm a bit worried that he wasn't able to turn things around at any point last year. He's struggled at times during his career but usually figures it out within a few months. He needs to just concentrate on going the other way and taking what comes to him. No way I'd sell him right now. |
| 4. By: Docmilo on 11-27-2012 07:14:25 Romero has legit 30 homer power. I was hoping to see him more at third this last year. I like Seager at 2nd as a 60+ xbh bat with an above average head for the game. I like Ackley a ton, but I still want to see him go to Tampa for an arm. What is a realistic package to bring Moore to the M's from a pool of Ackley, Smoak, Carp and Montero. Tampa has Zobrist penciled in at SS, 2nd and 1B on their MLB website depth chart. Jack doesn't have to sell low on Ackley, he just has to find the team needing offense and sees his value most. Tampa is a perfect fit. They should be drooling over young cost controlled bats. The M's have the pitching to do a deal with KC for Myers. This team isn't going anywhere if they sign Napoli, they aren't spending the dough on Hamilton and Nick Swisher isn't coming to Seattle because there are no TV shows he can guest appear on. If this team does sign Napoli, they should have deals for Smoak or Carp and Montero already in place. |
| 5. By: Mackie on 11-27-2012 08:40:04 While signing Napoli would add flexibility to the roster, I am not sure trading Montero is such a great idea in the event Napoli is signed. Giving up on such a young player who was (arguably) one of the better hitters on the team last year (and who probably has lots of potential still to achieve in his hitting) would be something like giving up on Ackley or Seager. On the other hand, if the right deal comes along for a player or two who could help the M's get over the hump sooner, sending Montero away might be an option... maybe Ackley or Seager too. But I like both Ackley and Seager. Ackley for his potential, and Seager for how nicely he has adjusted to the majors so far... he's a gamer! I hope they can keep both players, plus Montero as well. |
| 6. By: VikingArthur on 11-27-2012 08:47:09 @4 I don't think Smoak, Ackley, Carp and Montero would be enough for the Rays to trade Moore. They have no incentive to trade Moore. |
| 7. By: diderot on 11-27-2012 09:23:04 Thanks for the profile on Ackley's struggles. My question is whether issues like his are typically 'fixable'. Are these things a good hitting coach and an offseason likely to address in a meaningful way? Also, did he have the same issues in college which were just masked by the inability of pitchers at that level to exploit? Finally, what's the organizational take on Romero? Is he more likely than Catricala to produce at a big league level? |
| 8. By: Edman on 11-27-2012 10:13:17 Mistakes are made by counting your chickens before they hatch. I'm excited by the young talent in the system, but they still need to gain the experience that Ackley already has. All you do is put off the rebuild, that much more. Remember all the excitement for "Cat the Bat" last season? That in itself should make a bold statement that until players succeed at AAA, don't position them into a line-up. I wouldn't trade either Seager or Ackley, unless it was for a deal for a player that immediately makes the team better. Trading for a different prospect isn't going to make enough difference. I'm okay with Napoli on a four year deal. I don't like the fourth year, but when dealing with a top Free Agent, you have to take risks. If you get nervous, you can always trade him to a contender at mid-season. If you're not willing to take a risk, you have no business being a GM. What you need to avoid is a long-term risk that could still be hurting the team when you're ready to contend for the division title. As for Napoli, Smoak and Montero, there is no reason to believe you have to trade any of them. If Smoak works out at first, and Montero more than holds his own, then Napoli can catch. Seattle travels more than any team in the league. They can never have too many players. The better players on the bench, the more ability to keep players fresh without harming the offense. I don't see either Seagar or Ackley going anywhere, but for the right deal, Jack would have to listen. |
| 9. By: Jerry on 11-27-2012 10:25:33 I think trading Ackley right now would be an incredibly bad idea. Seems like a lot of posters on this blog (especially in the last thread) are very quick to give up on young players if they don't hit immediately. While we all hoped that Ackely would put up better numbers, it's way too early to make rash decisions about him. I like that Jason points out the good news: he got his first full MLB season under his belt, and erased any questions about his ability to stick at 2B defensively. Shin-Soo Choo and Mike Morse are examples of players that we bailed on too early. Among the guys we've talked about as potential acquisitions, Alex Gordon and Billy Butler are both examples of why patience is a virtue. Butler didn't hit until his third season, and Gordon didn't fulfill expectations until his fifth season. Michael Saunders is another great example. This time last year, most people had written him off. Now, he's a solid everyday player. Other non-M's that immediately come to mind: Carlos Quentin, Carlos Pena, Alex Rios, Aramis Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, and Jay Bruce. Lots of other prospects never reached their ceiling, but still developed into solid contributors after initial struggles. The M's have three young players who didn't quite live up to expectations in 2012: Smoak, Ackley, and Montero. Those guys all have talent. There is a good chance that 1 or 2 of them will develop into long-term solutions for the team. They would be unwise to move any of them before letting them get in 2-3 years of ML time. Obviously, Smoak is on a shorter leash than Montero. Hopefully, natural progression, better home park dimensions, and a new hitting coach will combine in some way to give the M's drastic improvement from guys already on the roster. It wouldn't shock me at all if Justin Smoak was the best hitter on the team next year. Strange things happen. The goal should be to have those pleasant surprises and late breakouts happen when the players are wearing an M's uniform. |
| 10. By: Jerry on 11-27-2012 10:43:58 By the way, the one player I think the M's should shop is Tom Wilhelmsen. For a club like the Tigers, he would be a great trade chip. They need a closer, and probably aren't looking to spend a ton in free agency. With a weak market for closers, the M's could get value back. If I were Jack, I'd be shopping Wilhelmsen. The one thing the M's do well is build quality bullpens out of nothing. Go sign Japanese ace closer Kyuji Fujikawa. With Pryor and Capps on the roster, the M's can afford to take a risk and sell high on Wilhelmsen. |
| 11. By: maqman on 11-27-2012 11:35:40 I don't believe the team has given up on Smoak, Ackley or Montero and I agree probably at least two of them will go on to have decent to good MLB careers. I read an interview with their college coach in a Carolina newspaper where he essentially said Seagar was going to be as good if not better than Ackley. I think he may be proven right. My bounce back bet for next season is Cat the Bat. He was bad in Tacoma and the first half of the AFL but then he figured something out and started hitting like he did in Jackson. I'm not giving up on him either. |
| 12. By: Rudolf on 11-27-2012 11:37:29 I agree with Jerry that selling low on most any player is a bad idea. Still, if a team wants Ackley as part of the package that lands us a legit bat, and is giving us fair value for him, I say we go for it. Players with major league service tend to be worth more than prospects. One of the best ways to boost the talent in your org. is to trade from the major league roster and fill from the minor league ranks. Tampa Bay makes a living off of this. The key is to have minor leaguers ready to step into the vacancy. IF Franklin or Romero or Seager can step in and perform as well as Ackley at 2B then it's dealing from a position of strength. Personally I am not married to any of the current M's, except Felix, (and Montero for some reason). I guess I'm into Dominican dudes. |
| 13. By: Rudolf on 11-27-2012 11:39:00 Make that Venezuelan! |
| 14. By: Docmilo on 11-27-2012 12:06:38 @6 VikingAurthur, the incentive to trade Moore is filling multiple offensive positions. Have you seen the Rays depth chart? MLB.com has Zobrist listed at 1st, 2nd and SS. They need young team controlled MLBers, more than one, and the M's have some to spare. I'm valuing Ackley a ton in bringing up his name in a Moore trade. Ackley and Carp could answer Tampa's need at 2nd and 1st and saves them a ton of money. They have to find money to re-sign David Price. They can't afford to sign a FA 1st baseman. If the M's are serious about Napoli, which I really hope they aren't since Montero will match his production at a lower cost, then Montero is just depth. People talk about moving Montero to first. There is no guarantee he plays anything close to league average D at first. His value to this club is back up C and DH. After that, his value is in trade return. Bring in Moore and Myers, sign Jackson as your #2 SP and this team is good to go. |
| 15. By: Edman on 11-27-2012 12:29:07 Jerry, i don't agree with trading Wilhelmsen, unless someone overpays, which isn't likely. Seattle needs salary relief as well. And, they have that in Wilhelmsen. Good teams have a stopper. Seattle has some candidates, but not enough that I'd feel comfortable at this point, to trade off Tom. A contender might also be interested in him at the deadline. In Detroit's case, money does not appear to be a problem. They spend it like it's water from a fountain. I'm for trading a valuable young prospect, if it brings back the right kind of player in return. Jack has a tough job ahead of him. You have several kids on the verge of becoming very good ballplayers. Which ones do you deal? It's not clear at this point. |
| 16. By: dewey on 11-27-2012 12:33:49 #8 Edman i agree a 100 percent with you wow how about that! On the fact to many people count the chickens before they hatch. All of this big 3 or 4 is nice to hear but right now its all hope and dreams and some dreams end good and others end in nightmares a wiseman once told me get 10 pitching prospects people like and you get two solid big leaguers its unreal but true and i will say 1 more time quoting the great Flava flav DONT BELIEVE THE HYPE! Results our what counts |
| 17. By: VikingArthur on 11-27-2012 12:51:29 @14 The Rays, better than just about anyone, understand that young cost controlled pitchers are key. You don't think the Rays have someone in their minor league system who can field a ball at 2b and hit a little? Of course they do. The truth is that Montero is a DH to a contending club. That supresses his value tremendously considering he hasn't shown the ability to hit the ball. Ackley? If he were a 5th round pick, no one would be high on him. We are still seeing the #2 overall pick in our heads when we look at him, other teams won't see it that way. He can be a decent player and maybe a fringe all-star 2b talent but not a difference maker. Carp and Smoak? Have little to zero value to anyone outside of Seattle. Every system has guys like Carp. Smoak is an enigma, but he has had plenty of MLB ABs at this point... he would be a AAA player for most decent organizations. |
| 18. By: safecochatter on 11-27-2012 12:52:26 I'm not for moving either of these guys, but if Jack can get back a similar talent in a corner outfielder ... Also if anyone is starting to follow the candidates for the first round of the 2013 mlb draft. How good is Aaron Judge? The 6'7" power hitting corner outfielder seems to be climbing. Seems to be a lot of outfielders ranked high. I know the m's will get the best talent available. Jason, do you see an above average year for outfielders in the draft? |
| 19. By: VikingArthur on 11-27-2012 12:56:40 As for Wilhemsen... trade him if anyone offers you a MLB level bat any any position. Closers are dime a dozen guys. Most organizaitons get that now and closers only have value for contending teams. We could put Pryor, Capps, etc in the closer role next year and be the same team we were before. If I were the Ms, I would have a different guy close every year. Bring up a 22 year old guy who throws 95+, have him close for a year, get his meaningless 35 saves and trade him. The rationale of "I don't know if we have anyone to replace Tom" is the same we had about Putz and League. There IS ALWAYS another guy to do that job. Literally every year some guy comes from NOWHERE to save 35+ games and look like a legend doing it. |
| 20. By: d2ret on 11-27-2012 13:09:37 I agree with Jerry, Rudolf and Edman. There are too many variables to predict what kind of trade will happen. I dont like standing pat this offseason though because of the number of good young tradable assets we have. Especially considering Z and Macs ability to replenish the farm consistently. Zs gotta show his creativity and skill in trades this offseason again. YES. Sell incredibly high on a package that starts with Wilhelmsen if you get stud position players back. It all depends on if Z and the scouts like the position player coming back. Castellanos for Wilhelmsen + Miller or Romero??? If you like the scouting on Castellanos TODAY, you have to gamble on it. Z knows how to raise talent. But I always felt he was too hesitant to make the lateral move a la Billy Beane. This is expressed in Z's decisions to wait too long in some trades (Bedard, Washburn, Aardsma, League). Take Aardsma for instance. He asked for the moon in Sandoval, and thats a beautiful thing that he starts high, but when he doesnt get the overpay, he plays it too tight and doesnt trade the player for around equal value on the major league roster, or near ready. Hes gotta take this page from Billy Beanes book. Except for your true core...YOU CANT AFFORD NOT TO TRADE THEM when theyre value is so high. |
| 21. By: Docmilo on 11-27-2012 14:01:27 d2ret, are we sure Castellanos is closer to being major league ready than Romero? Are we sure Castellanos is going to have the better major league career? All Romero did was hit 23 homers, 64 total xbh's and drive in 101 runs in 116 games across 2 levels. He actually put up better numbers in Jackson than he did in High Desert. He's got to be the closest thing to major league ready the M's have in their farm system and that's including Zunino. |
| 22. By: Alpha Blu on 11-27-2012 14:06:48 Edman, what to you constitutes a long-term risk? For me, giving Napoli a 4 year contract is an unnecessary risk. While I expect him to bounce back to some degree, I don't see a regular spot for him if we keep Montero, Zunino, Jaso, and possibly Smoak. I can't see a contender taking him off our hands mid-season, either, especially considering the overly large contract we'd have to offer to garner his services. Perhaps Napoli will make more sense when the Mariners make some trades and we have a better idea of their plans for next year. |
| 23. By: rjfrik on 11-27-2012 16:11:29 Napoli is a complete waste of our resources. There is no way he should be signed for any long term contract. If you want to bring him in on a one year deal (I doubt he would agree to that) to bridge the next year until Zunino gets here fine. But any multi year deal is an absolute waste of money. DO NOT trade Ackley, Seager, Montero or Smoak unless you get absolutely blown away. You would be selling low on every guy listed sans Seager and I like Seager, I think gets better and better. It was discouraging to not see Ackley figure it out last year and the 2nd half of the year before last, but he needs one more full season to see what we really have. Smoak came on like gang busters the last two months and that deserves a look for the first few months of next season. Montero did just fine, remember he was a rookie. He should have a BIG year next year. The only place to I would look for upgrades is in the OF and I'm not sure there is anything out there via FA that wouldn't lock us into a bad contract for a 30+ year old player and wouldn't punt our draft pick. I think JZ makes one trade this year and I think it's going to be a young talent on the farm. If he does make a trade using a big leaguer I think the Bartender is the primary option. I could see some team overpaying for his services. And he is replaceable. |
| 24. By: SLOmariner on 11-27-2012 19:36:08 No on Napoli, enough said. Ackley and Seager stay. Smoak and Montero stay. I love the Bill James projection on Montero, and see Smoak as our wildcard. Sign Swisher, grimmace at giving up the pick, but get it done. Find a way to get us Myers from KC... my gut feeling is it's gotta be an overpay in prospects because we dont have the major league pitching it seems their after. Pray they love Franklin. Include Walker? Sure... Erasmo, Paxton, Franklin? Sure... Sign the SPs needed, and a backup C until Zunino is up. All of a sudden we're young, AND have pushed our timetable for winning to now. At least that's my thought. Do we lose 3 of our top 5 prospects? Likely. But the deciding question for me is do we have prospects ready to fill in a legit top 5? I think yes, so I say go for it.... |
| 25. By: rocketdawg31 on 11-27-2012 21:27:08 Gun to my head, I name Justin Smoak as the guy who improves MEGA in 2013. I realize that comment could get me some ridicule, and I wouldn't blame anybody for it. In more than one way, the sheer numbers don't support that position. But put a pox on the numbers. What I saw with my eyes, I can't shake the feeling he's turned a big, big corner. Not saying that we shouldn't have a solid back-up plan in place in case he falls on his face at an unreal pace (yes, that was intentional. Word fun. Hee.)...but I think what we saw of Justin Smoak in September was the real deal. It irks me it took him 5 months of 2012 to do it...but I think it was genuine light bulbs turning on we saw there, not just flashes. Sigh. Can't wait for the winter meetings. This promises to be a ton of fooforah to have to keep track of. |
| 26. By: dewey on 11-28-2012 06:46:57 #25 How can Smoak not im prove he has had 1300 at bats in majors and is a 214 hitter as # 17 the Viking said with any good org he would be in 3A.Ive finally quit banging the anti Smoak drum because people here think im a fool but the numbers tell you on this player he has been given more then a fair shot and it hasnt worked move on admit you where wrong on this guy JMZ and go try another guy. |
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