| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 07-15-2012 |
The Seattle Mariners' approach to this year's trade deadline is likely quite different than in year's past. We've discussed here the past few weeks about what the club is -- and isn't -- looking for in trades this month, as well as the idea of the M's making a play for Arizona Diamondbacks right fielder Justin Upton.
The M's may very well move left-hander Jason Vargas at the deadline, and reliever Brandon League could be on a similar trek. The club's No. 1 trade piece, outside of Felix Hernandez, whom we discussed here and Mike Salk of 710 ESPN discussed in this video, is right-hander Tom Wilhelmsen.
Clubs like The Bartender quite a bit, and for good reason. He's really the perfect relief pitcher and trade commodity. Here's why:
Not only does he possess good stuff, including a fastball in the 93-97 mph range and one of the very best curveballs in the entire league, but Wilhelmsen is under club control for five more seasons after 2012 and isn't likely to become arbitration eligible until after the 2014 season.
He's also advanced in terms of general maturity, prompting one scout to say "you don't have to worry about any of that. Sometimes at 22, 23 years old, players have issues from non-baseball aspects of their lives, or have a problem making adjustments. Even as a guy that missed, what, five years or so, he's a grown-up on and off the field."
Wilhelmsen is also in the prime of his career physically, suggesting many of the inherent concerns of arm injury are gone. It doesn't mean he won't get hurt, but there are fewer risks once a pitcher hits his late twenties and has come out unscathed, especially one with so little wear and tear built up during his early-to-mid twenties.
Clubs that could have strong interest in Wilhelmsen include the Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers, St. Louis Cardinals, New York Mets and Toronto Blue Jays.
Subscribers can click here for the latest Prospect Insider rumors chatter that tackles this very subject and more.
The big unknown is how much Wilhelmsen could fetch in a trade. It was just two years ago that right-handed closer Matt Capps, considered an average closer at the time, netted the Washington Nationals a solid catching prospect in Wilson Ramos, who is now their starter, though he's on the disabled list. And Capps was a free agent after the season.
The A's, just this past season, sent closer Andrew Bailey and outfielder Ryan Sweeney to the Boston Red Sox for Josh Reddick and a couple of average minor league prospects. Bailey was more established than is Wilhelmsen, but he also came with big injury risk.
The best example of a recent trade of a club-controlled closer may be when the White Sox sent Sergio Santos to the Toronto Blue Jays this past offseason. That deal netted the Sox Nestor Molina, a decent pitching prospect. It's worth noting, however, that the trade was met with puzzled words from analysts and others in the industry, suggesting the Sox could have done better.
Other reliever trades worth considering include the one the Red Sox and Astros made over the winter when Houston acquired Jed Lowrie for Mark Melancon. Another is the deal the Padres made for Mike Adams last summer when they got two solid pitching prospects -- Robbie Erlin and Joe Wieland -- for their setup man.
If the M's play their cards right, they'll either get more than that for Wilhelmsen, or they'll keep him. I imagine there's a deal out there between now and the end of the winter that gets the M's an average or better everyday player that is under contract beyond 2013 in a deal for Wilhelmsen.
trade-rumors:-tom-wilhelmsen
Comments
The following 122 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: Jon O on 07-15-2012 22:44:50 JAC - would a Whilhelmsen for Allen Criag trade make any sense. An outside rhe box trade that could make sense for two once hyped same age prospects Smoak to TB in exchange for Desmond Jennings. I'm not sure TB makes the trade until they re-sign BJ Upton, but they are lacking any big stick 1st base prospects and a potential change if scenery may benefit both Smoak and Jennings. Thoughts? |
| 2. By: Edman on 07-15-2012 22:45:59 I understand you have to give up something to get it. But any deal that includes The Bartender, needs to bring back someone who can help Seattle right now. To do that, there will have to be other players included. But it can't be for prospects, that will be stepping back, IMO. |
| 3. By: namhsid on 07-15-2012 22:55:45 I agree with edman. He is very valuable as relievers go anyways. I think with all the years of club control and his skill set there should be alot of teams bidding for him. Honestly, I might want to wait until the offseason because he could be an important cog for us acquiring a big bat via trade but if the deal is good we have to take it imo. With the fact that we mucked up selling high on Aardsma and League, I sure hope we sell high on Wilhelmsen. With that said I wish we were better off as a team and could rightfully keep him because he is awesome. |
| 4. By: Lailoken on 07-15-2012 23:17:29 JAC, what do you think about Matusz as a possibility in a deal with Baltimore? |
| 5. By: Jason A. Churchill on 07-15-2012 23:20:26 I can't see any contender trading a player they use everyday for Wilhelmsen. It weakens the team, rather than making it better. |
| 6. By: namhsid on 07-15-2012 23:32:30 Jason so with what you said in mind and a a couple weeks ago about acquiring established young pieces should we expect something in the offseason more so than in the coming weeks? Was what Morosi said about an Ichiro re-signing based on him being 4th OF or was it Morosi taking Jack out of context because Jack usually doesnt discuss contract situations. I really hope we do not overpay to keep him in the twilight years when that money could be used in much more efficient ways. I guess it might not be Jack's choice either...ugh |
| 7. By: Edman on 07-15-2012 23:47:52 #4, I'm not sure why the Mariners would be seeking pitching, when it's the strength of the organization. Hitting is the weakness. I agree, Jason. But for all the favorable reasons you've outlined about Tom, I would want Seattle to keep him. If you package Tom and Vargas in a deal that brings back someone who will help the team offensively in the very near future, you'd have to consider it. But I think the time for trading for more prospects and buy-low players should be nearing the end. Seattle can't continue to trade assets and needs to start acquiring them for next year. |
| 8. By: Adam P. Boyd on 07-16-2012 00:03:22 I've gotta say - its pretty much a fallacy that this club's pitching is really a strength. The organization may have depth and ceiling in the farm, but the big league club really doesn't have a lot of pitching talent outside of Felix and a few of the relievers. Seattle has let up the third fewest runs at home, but they've let up the 4th most on the road. That is bad - really bad. If you want some more advanced stats, the M's starters have been 17th in tRA (which is skewed heavily by Felix's dominance) and the bullpen is 19th in tRA. Obviously hitting is a primary concern, but frankly, so is pitching. This team is bad. Obviously when Hultzen, Walker, Paxton arrive - if they arrive as advertised - they will help, but right now the pitching is pretty poo poo platter. |
| 9. By: Jason A. Churchill on 07-16-2012 00:19:42 I think in deals for Vargas, League, Ryan, etc, they'll take the best value they can get. Prospects, pitching, it doesn't really matter. If they deal someone like Wilhelmsen or anyone else of true value, they're targeting hitters first and foremost. |
| 10. By: Adam P. Boyd on 07-16-2012 00:28:15 Makes sense. Good stuff JAC. I would be sad to see Wilhemsen go - it is fun having a guy come in who can flash two ~70 pitches. Definitely understandable if they get the right offer though. |
| 11. By: dawgncarolina on 07-16-2012 00:53:55 Two things Adam. One, edman didn't say pitching was the strength of the club, he said it was the strength of the organization, and I think that is clearly true. Second, the M's being 4th in runs allowed on the road is even worse than it sounds, as the defense rates top 10 borderline top 5 in the game. Our big league pitching is definitely a problem. Hopefully the org strength will become a strength at the top quickly. |
| 12. By: leddob on 07-16-2012 01:08:18 one very interesting stat i stumbled upon the other day is that Hector Noesi is 8th in the major leagues for lowest batting average of balls hit in play. very interesting considering his very high era. How would one interpret this stat by Noesi? He has by far a higher era than any other pitcher in the top ten of BABIP. The only other pitcher in the top twenty with an era over 5 is ervin Santana. 6 of the top ten have eras under 3. |
| 13. By: leddob on 07-16-2012 01:09:26 vargas is 4th in the league |
| 14. By: Gibbo on 07-16-2012 03:21:10 Any chance a guy like Logan Morrison would be a potential get? He could be a great bat at LF or 1B, and this would add some real competition. I still believe we are well on track to fielding a strong team by as early as next year and potentially competing by 2014. I am not a fan of the reports that GMZ might want to keep Ichiro on as he would use up a spot on the roster that can be easily upgraded. |
| 15. By: Jerry on 07-16-2012 06:36:47 I think STL could be a great match for the M's at the trade deadline. The Cards need pitching, both bullpen and starters. And they have a few interesting bats in Allen Craig, Matt Carpenter, and Matt Adams. Adams in particular would be a great addition. I wonder what type of deal they could get from the cards for Vargas plus a reliever or two. Could be a good match. |
| 16. By: Adam P. Boyd on 07-16-2012 07:59:42 dawgncarolina - I never said Edman said that. I was speaking in general in regards to a common fallacy. He may have influenced the post to a small extent, but I wasn't directly responding to him. What you said about the defense is true, though tRA looks to take defense out of the equation and focuses only on what the pitcher is capable of himself. |
| 17. By: Adam P. Boyd on 07-16-2012 08:10:34 LoMo might be interesting to discuss; his knee is a concern though. Hasn't had any power until recently and those things tend to linger. |
| 18. By: dafix_isin on 07-16-2012 09:07:35 Maybe the Bartender for Adam Lind and Lunchboxhero? Thankfully, Lind's contract has options on it and Lunchboxhero's return to "God's Country," as he calls it may finally get him over the MLB hump. It's certainly not sexy, but meh, could be worse. Sexy? Try Paxton, Seager and Barkeep for Lawrie and Lunchboxhero. Now Lawrie is the kind of untouchable player that I would want in my greedy mode. Don't know if Paxton is truly an untouchable type, but I figure hey, you want an untouchable, it's gonna cost you an untouchable. BaZing. |
| 19. By: safecochatter on 07-16-2012 09:38:58 @ 15 exactly. Cards just got swept by the reds to start the second half. and with everyone healty allen rode the pine last night. It's to the point that if there isn't a trade between cards and m's i'd be shocked. |
| 20. By: Edman on 07-16-2012 10:02:03 There are several trading partners available. I don't think there is any one greater than the other. It depends on desparation. It will probably go down to the deadline, and will depend on who's the closest to a division or wild card birth, and which teams feel then stand the most to gain from a trade with Seattle. Jack doesn't really have to deal anyone, so he'll likely wait it out until someone over-pays. |
| 21. By: agcmmgdh on 07-16-2012 10:16:25 @18 The only way you'd get Lawrie is if you traded Felix. No way Toronto parts with him for a package centered around Paxton. |
| 22. By: Jason A. Churchill on 07-16-2012 11:09:23 That's extremely presumptuous, agcmmgdh, considering the fact that the Jays do not have Lawrie in their untouchable group and are considering moving him to left field next year. If the Mariners offered Paxton and Franklin, the Jays probably strongly consider it at very least. Lawrie is not Mike Trout or Bryce Harper. He doesn't have premium value like that. |
| 23. By: titans12 on 07-16-2012 11:19:30 Who is in the no trade group for Toronto? I think they are the best trade match for offense. Gose Marisnick d'Arnaud Hechivarria Cooper Snider Rasmus Lawrie etc. |
| 24. By: agcmmgdh on 07-16-2012 11:29:46 If that's the case then I'd definitely like to see the Mariners make a play for Lawrie. I think he's got tremendous upside and I like his attitude. I know that he probably rubs some people the wrong way, but I think that right now the Mariners are lacking someone who wears their heart on their sleeve like Brett does. Jason do you think Lawrie can play LF? Why are the Jays considering moving him out there? |
| 25. By: baseballfan on 07-16-2012 12:09:43 I don't know what Jason is smoking but Lawrie has been very good @ 3rd this year and there's no consideration of moving Lawrie to LF - Considering how the Jays have built a marketing campaign around Lawrie and always mentioned him as a core guy, I would be shocked if an offer of Paxton and Franklin would be considered strongly - I'm inclined to agree with agcmmgdh - it would take a can't refuse type of offer to pry Lawrie & it's not worth it. |
| 26. By: dewey on 07-16-2012 12:21:47 Lawrie isnt on untouchable list but Franklin,Paxton and our ten guys our im confused? Lawrie is a ballplayer that is a hard nosed old school guy and i read the headlines where they called him the CANADIAN JEWEL..I beg to differ he has proven he can play and he is representing his country playing for the only club up there. |
| 27. By: DUWORKSON on 07-16-2012 12:27:27 Now I gotta wonder if AA has the balls to trade Lawrie for Paxton and Franklin all winter long. Not cool Jason. |
| 28. By: leddob on 07-16-2012 16:28:09 I agree with jason. Lawrie's projection at best is a good player with a couple all star games. Hes playing in Toronto and has very poor power numbers. 8 homeruns and 31 rbis through 84 games in Toronto does not look good. His speed seems to have been overrated as well because his sb percentage is dismal. You can take the positives that hes hitting 290 but consider that a lot of his singles may have gotten through just because of the carpet. He has 5 of his homeruns at home and 3 on the road. I would not offer Paxton and Franklin for him. |
| 29. By: leddob on 07-16-2012 16:29:37 if lawrie was considered a "Canadian Jewel" im curious to know what they were calling Smoak when he was in the minors |
| 30. By: leddob on 07-16-2012 16:40:51 I would rather trade two of the big three for rasmus then to waste two of our prospects on a unproven infielder |
| 31. By: titans12 on 07-16-2012 17:54:47 Rasmus and Snider for Paxton/Miller/Ramirez |
| 32. By: Jason A. Churchill on 07-16-2012 22:02:30 Not sure where someone said the M's top 10 is untouchable, because it certainly seems like Walker is the only prospect close to it and Felix the lone big leaguer in that category. titans12, I'm not sure why Toronto would make that deal, despite the overall talent swap being reasonable. The Jays have young pitching coming up and really need position players, including a first baseman, second baseman and a third baseman if they move Lawrie to left. |
| 33. By: namhsid on 07-16-2012 23:09:26 The so called untouchables came from Rosenthal which was a list of the big 3, Felix, Ackley, Seagar, and Franklin but I think most rational fans know that outside of Felix and possibly Walker if the right move is available then they wouldnt be so untouchable. I think we should try to get a Dominic Brown type change of scenery guy to try to get value from. Jason, have you seen anything from Truinfel in the last couple weeks to suggest he is progressing and if so should he be given a shot before Franklin is ready to see what we got and if that isnt the plan is their interest from other clubs like in the NL that would want him? I guess Im still holding out hope that he has some value and/or can be a decent player. Cuz if he can be maybe that frees up being able to move Seager or Franklin to upgrade other positions in the futurwe. BTW, Jason I want to say thanks for your hard work to allow a peasent like me to expand my knowledge base about baseball. Your insight seems very respected and has helped me immensely in furthering my understanding of this game. K done brown nosing. |
| 34. By: titans12 on 07-17-2012 08:10:43 If anything the Jays are loaded with outfielders. I don't think they are gonna move Lawrie anywhere but if they need a 3B we have Liddi/Catricala/Martinez etc.We need help in our Outfield big time -they have Rasmus,Davis,Bautista,Francisco on the big league roster and Snider,Sierra,Marisnick,Gose in AA or higher.Gose is very close to being ready to take CF.Bautistas injury could change things though. |
| 35. By: Edman on 07-17-2012 09:47:08 titans, I disagree. If Guti returns healthy, with Wells, Saunders and Ichiro, the outfield is okay. It's not superb, but better. Improvement is going to come from improvement on the infield. Give Jaso/Montero more chances behind the plate, get Smoak and Ackley on track, and get more offensive production at shortstop. Would an outfielder with a bonefide bat help? Absolutely. Is Seattle likely to find one? Probably not. If you can get a prospect/slightly past prospect player in a deal for League, Olivo, or any of the other not likely to be on the roster when they're ready to compete players, then okay. But, if you're talking about giving up one of the big three, it better be for more than the available players that you've listed. Snider, Sierra, and Gose are all prospects, and we would go through another adjustment period. Seattle needs help now. |
| 36. By: titans12 on 07-17-2012 10:35:55 I think if we keep waiting for Gutti to be healthy we are just wasting time.Time has shown us everytime he heals from one ailment another arises. Rasmus is the major league talent and Snider has experiance. Hopefully Ichiro is gone after this year so we need a RF and CF with Saunders and Wells in LF and one being the 4th OF.I didn't say try to get one of the OF prospects I said they have alot of depth in the OF and it seems a great trade partner. I would swap Paxton for Rasmus straight accross. We need offense and we have pitching depth. |
| 37. By: safecochatter on 07-17-2012 11:57:16 @32 this is the quote... While one Mariners official says the team is “wide open” on potential deals, rival clubs report that the M’s have made a long list of players untouchable in trades. The list includes right-hander Felix Hernandez, second baseman Dustin Ackley and third baseman Kyle Seager, plus the Mariners’ four top prospects, according to Baseball America - right-hander Taijuan Walker, left-handers Danny Hultzen and James Paxton and shortstop Nick Franklin. by KenRosenthal sometimes rosenthal is spot on, but what i don't like about the way this is written,is it's like rosenthal is saying, this is according to baseball america, not me... i have a hard time believing the m's have that many untouchables. But it was about 3 years ago in this blog most had the opinion that the m's really need some infield building blocks. Well, we got a couple... |
| 38. By: cdiggins@whidbey.com on 07-17-2012 12:22:46 Player 1: 26yrs old, 509 ML games played, 17 HR, 54rbi's, .249/.317/.472 Player 2 24 yrs old, 137 ML games played (70 at Safeco), 10 HR, 54rbi's .241/.305/.410 Colby Rasmus ,Player 1 has played 1/2 of his games in Toronto and St Louis and only his slugging % is higher than Kyle Seager, player 2, who plays 1/2 of his games at Safeco. It seems like people value the other teams players more than their own. I think Z has Seager on his untouchable list because he is so valuable to this team. He has 54 RBI's on a team where he doesn't get as many opportunities as other players who have over 50 RBI's. At this point in the season they are mostly 3 and 4th hitters. I would guess. I myself would not trade Seager or Paxton or Saunders or Wells for Rasmus or any other prospect or established player unless they were significantly better than Rasmus. And no way I give up these players for Justin Upton. Why would Az give up such a great player? Cause he's not. |
| 39. By: cdiggins@whidbey.com on 07-17-2012 12:34:53 Another thing that irks me and is unfounded is that I keep hearing that,"Z's job is in jeopardy if these players don't produce"...if Z was fired he would have a job in a minute. M's system has never been stronger and these young players are going through growth pains. We must have patience. Almost all players go through this and playing at Safeco is so so difficult for everyone who comes here. These young players don't have veterans to lean on and guide them. That is not their fault. THEY WILL COME AROUND...if they can play this well under these conditions they will improve. |
| 40. By: Edman on 07-17-2012 12:51:56 So, Guti's getting hit in the head by a throw to first is an ailment? Because of his make-up, he is prone to concussions? Outfielders are more readily available than any other position. If an infielder doesn't work out, they can move them to the outfield. They could add a thirdbaseman or secondbaseman, and move Ackley to LF. I wouldn't trade Paxton for Rasmus. Maybe a different package, just not one with Paxton. Besides, it's doubtful that Toronto would want Paxton, considering that he refused to sign with them when they drafted him in the first round. If Seattle is going to trade one of the big three, I would want a better bat than Rasmus. |
| 41. By: Edman on 07-17-2012 12:55:14 Agreed cdiggins. As hard as it is, Seattle needs to stay the course. Their stuggles now will help them when they improve. How much worse could it be? What don't kill ya, makes ya stronger. I do think they need a couple veteran players to learn from, but the core that is in place now will grow together as a team. Nothing makes an army stronger than surviving tough battles. |
| 42. By: Jerry on 07-17-2012 14:18:09 Edman, I think that "staying the course" means continuing the rebuild. The status quo is continuing to trade vets who don't have a future with the team, and continuing to bring talent into the organization. I agree with you, but am surprised you say this since you've been pretty outspoken about the need to demote guys like Smoak and Ackley, and bring in veteran guys. I don't see the M's doing this, besides the possible long-shot of adding someone like Justin Upton. But that is an extreme long-shot, and only a good idea if the trade package is something like the Cliff Lee deal with Philly, where we totally fleeced them. Its never wise to expect that type of thing to happen. I'm thinking that Jack is taking offers on a lot of guys right now: Vargas, League, Wilhelmsen, Millwood, and pretty much every other reliever on this club. One trade I'd love to see: Vargas and League to St. Louis for 1B Matt Adams and RHP Tyrell Jenkins. There are rumors linking STL to Vargas, and the M's have apparently been scouting Jenkins. But Adams is a great fit. The Birds have a glut of 1B types, and Adams is blocked in AAA. He would be a great fit for the M's to challenge Smoak and play DH a bit, as he has bigtime lefty power. They could also include one of the lefties (Furbush, Leutge, Perez, in declining order of value) or even Wilhelmsen (with the M's getting more in return). That's the type of move the M's should be looking at. |
| 43. By: cdiggins@whidbey.com on 07-17-2012 15:15:35 I was just looking at the MLB Stats and almost all of the players with OPS over 800 are established players in the ML for at least 3 to 4 years...except for Reddick (A's) and a few others. The leading M's players are Seager at .715 and others are in the mid .600 and again they play 1/2 games in Safeco and they will get better. Rasmus has been in the ML for 500+ games or 2000AB's and .750 OPS....will he get much better? It is a better value to hold onto our prospects and see if they improve then trading for uncertainty. So I think they should be untouchable... |
| 44. By: Jerry on 07-17-2012 15:44:17 The notion that a player is "untouchable" is totally bunk. Is Felix untouchable? Would you turn down a trade for any five players on any team in MLB for him? Of course not. That would be insane. Is Taijuan Walker untouchable? Would you trade him for Mike Trout? Of course you would. What about Jesus Montero or Dustin Ackley? Would you trade either for any two players on any club? Of course you would. Those are the three best assets the M's have: their best player, their best cost-controlled player, and their best prospect. No player is untouchable. People seem to get the idea that just because a player isn't being actively shopped by their team, or that a player is highly valued, that that somehow equates with "untouchable" status. Sure, there are some prospects who can't be had in a trade for a rental player. And some players would be so prohibitively expensive that it isn't worth talking about (I think that Bryce Harper, Mike Trout, and a handful of other guys fall into this category). But all GMs listen to offers and make deals that are in the best interest of their organizations. No player is untouchable. The M's could trade for any player in baseball if they really really wanted to. It's just a matter of price tag. |
| 45. By: cdiggins@whidbey.com on 07-17-2012 16:08:49 Untouchable is probably a poor choice of words... how about...will not trade unless for an established star player at a reasonable price (which does not exist) |
| 46. By: cdiggins@whidbey.com on 07-17-2012 16:23:40 I guess we will see how Gose from Blue Jays does. From AP sports: Jose Bautista was placed on the 15-day disabled list Tuesday with inflammation in his left wrist and the Toronto Blue Jays called up outfielder Anthony Gose from Triple-A Las Vegas. The 21-year-old Gose played in the Futures Game for top prospects last week in Kansas City. He was hitting .292 at Las Vegas and leading the Pacific Coast League with 29 stolen bases. He had five homers, 10 triples and 41 RBIs. To make room for Gose on the 40-man roster, the Blue Jays transferred right-hander Brandon Morrow from the 15-day disabled list to the 60-day DL. |
| 47. By: safecochatter on 07-17-2012 17:39:23 Nice to see James Jones putting up solid numbers at HD. last 10 429//463/694 post all-star(22 games) 330/418/543 he's put up better numbers every month than from the previous month since the start of the year. Should be interesting to see how it goes at jackson later this year or next year. |
| 48. By: titans12 on 07-17-2012 18:06:54 We need to get a couple major league hitters to protect these young hitters or they will continue to fail.Even if we just had a legit #3 hitter it would make it so much easier on our young guys.Pitchers dont have to pitch around anyone in our lineup and haven't for years. Players like Rasmus,A.Gordon,Ethier,J.Bruce would be perfect fits for the us.The Jays have alot of OF depth and Gose can be the new CF -he's gonna be a good one. |
| 49. By: Jerry on 07-17-2012 19:49:37 Forget veterans and protection. They just need to figure out what the he'll is going on at Safeco, and fix it. It's like watching another team when they are on road trips. |
| 50. By: rotoenquire on 07-18-2012 12:47:42 The Angels have had reports that Bourjos, Morales, Richards all could be avail. For the right deal. In a SP trade Morales and Richards or for a RP Bourjos could be had. So what would u all do? Wilhelmsen for Bourjos? Felix, Wilhelmsen for Morales, Bourjos, Richards Vargas, Wilhelmsen for Morales M's are in a good position to get something of substance from the Angels. I know too tose who like to say it JackZ will listen to all deals. But let us have some fun. I would do the 1st and 3rd deal quick. I may do the Felix deal if they added a prospect they have some interesting names down on the farm. |
| 51. By: masonb on 07-18-2012 13:15:04 The only way the Angels even sniff the possibility of acquiring Felix is if Trout is in the deal. It would have to be something like Trout, Trumbo, Bourjos, Richards +stuff to get that conversation started and realistically the Angels, with their great rotation, would be retarded to consider that. You don't send a division rival your stud pitcher unless it cripples them somewhat into the future. Same thing with Texas: it would take a Profar, Olt, Buckel, Perez, Feliz, Holland type deal to get the conversation. Felix is untradeable, and perhaps the most untradable player in the league, simply because the cost is far too high for any team to consider. No offense man, but your idea of trading Felix alone for that package is pretty stupid, and you wanna ship them Wilhelmsen too? Glad you aren't the GM. |
| 52. By: Jerry on 07-18-2012 13:41:42 I don't know which is more insane, Felix and Wilhelmsen for Morales, Bourjos and Richards, or Felix for Trout, Trumbo, Bourjos, Richards, and more. I think both those ideas are extremes of nonsense. As a side note, today Dave Schoenfield posted another of those "M's should move Felix" pieces today. He suggested the Cardinals should make a move for Felix, with the M's getting OF Oscar Taveras, 1B Mike Adams, RHP Shelby Miller, and RHP Tyrell Jenkins. That is the type of deal I would take if I were Jack. Its a pretty considerable overpay for the Cards, as they would be giving up two top-20 prospects, plus two other solid prospects. And Adams is ML ready right now, Miller is in AAA, and Taveras is raking in AA. Basically, I'd move Felix if a team overpays considerably. That Cards package is a whole lot. |
| 53. By: dewey on 07-18-2012 13:47:36 If i was the Angels it would have to be Felix and Whilhelmson for Trout one of the true greats to come around in a long time what a player he is and will be for along time.Im not sure i would do that if i was Angels how about you Mr.Churchill? |
| 54. By: StandinPat on 07-18-2012 13:49:09 @50 ideas 1 and 2 are just god awful, 3 is tough without knowing Wilhelmsen's market value, and the fact Morales only has 1 more year of team control. |
| 55. By: jsmitty on 07-18-2012 14:55:31 The Cardinals appear loaded with young talent, both at the Major League level and the upper minors. I like that Cardinal deal if you replace Jenkins with Carlos Martinez. Felix (and League?)for: Martinez, Miller, Taveras and Adams. That's a steep price for the Cardinals, but they're so loaded I think they'd survive. I'd never wanted to trade Felix, but wow that young talent is tempting. |
| 56. By: Rudolf on 07-18-2012 15:02:14 Schoenfield's package includes a great deal of talent, but I'd want something major league ready (and proven) as part of the deal. Sub Jenkins for Lance Lynn. Lynn, Taveras, Miller for Felix. I don't think it's an overpay, and I don't want to see it happen. Miller, while very talented, is struggling. Taveras looks great but has his doubters. Jenkins is struggling in A ball and is incredibly risky. Adams just doesn't excite me. While all nice names, the package reeks of magic beans. With Lynn part of the package it has the feel of stability. |
| 57. By: masonb on 07-18-2012 15:03:24 @Jerry, It is extreme, but that's the point. Z doesn't have to trade Felix. He's signed for 2.5 more years at a good rate. Not to mention you'd be trading him to a division rival. On top of that, you'd be doing it in the middle of the season so you add a premium on top of that. If you trade Felix, it's for proven Major League talent, plain and simple. You don't trade him for a boatload of prospects like you're advocating. If that's the case, I doubt the Cardinals top prospects would be enticing enough. If a team was actually really truly serious about acquiring Felix, Z could name his price. How do you think management sells to the fanbase right now that they traded Felix for a bunch of great prospects? They don't. You get a huge name back: Stanton, Harper, Trout, or you don't do the deal. It's pretty much that cut and dry. |
| 58. By: jsmitty on 07-18-2012 15:26:22 Rudolf, I don't think it makes much sense for the Cardinals to trade Lance Lynn. They have like a one or two year window to win another championship and Lynn is a huge piece. If we traded Felix for Martinez, Miller, and Taveras that would give us 8! of the top 50 prospects in baseball. According to BA it would be: 4) Walker 5) Hultzen 18) Taveras 20) Miller, Shelby (not Brad) 27) Martinez 31) Zunino 42) Franklin 50) Paxton That list doesn't even include Brad Miller and Victor Sanchez! |
| 59. By: Edman on 07-18-2012 16:25:44 jsmitty, how does that make us any better? We give up one of the best, young pitchers in baseball, and get more prospects? Yippie Skippy. It's not about who has the most prospects, it's about who has the most wins. |
| 60. By: Jerry on 07-18-2012 16:33:52 Rudolf and Mason, You're not going to get awesome young proven players in a mid-season trade. When was the last time that a deal like that went down? Felix isn't worth Trout straight up. I think you guys are vastly overvaluing our guys and undervaluing other team's players. Why would a team give up a core player from their ML team while they are contending? It would defeat the purpose of the trade: to go all-in to win the World Series now. That is why almost all mid-season deals are vets for prospects. Contending teams are trading $1 now for $2 tomorrow. The reason why they are willing to do that is because there is a bit of risk. Besides, Lynn isn't that good. Why is everyone so afraid of prospects? Just because Ackley and Smoak are struggling right now doesn't mean you avoid risk. The one really good point that Schoenfield made is that the M's need to take risks if they want to get good. Trading Felix is a huge risk. But he alone can't help us. He's been awesome the past couple of years, but the team still sucks. In order for the M's to contend with Texas and LAA, we need to take a risk. What you are betting is that Jack Z and company are good enough talent evaluators that they can bring back a few cornerstone players. Since Felix's value is huge right now, you can pry free 4-5 legit prospects. In that Cardinals idea, the upside is that Miller turns into a solid #1 or #2 starter, and joins Walker, Hultzen, Paxton, et al in a LOADED rotation. Miller could develop into a guy like Matt Cain. And you are betting that Taveras turns into a young lefty Vlad Guerrero (which is about the perfect player for the M's). The other pieces include a solid starter at 1B and a raw arm with tons of upside. Adam could end up being like Aubrey Huff or perhaps a bit better: a solid starter. Its a risk, though. All of those guys could fail to live up to expectations. But if it wasn't a risk, no team would do it! Who would trade Matt Cain, Vlad Guerrero, and Aubrey Huff for Felix? Nobody? That's the crux here: you trade safe performance now for a future with more risk but more upside. |
| 61. By: 11records on 07-18-2012 16:54:56 Is Wilhemsen's value now more than Brandon League's was when Bavasi gave up Brandon Morrow for League and a mid level outfield prospect? Is there a Bill Bavasi out there who we can take advantage of? |
| 62. By: jgstecker on 07-18-2012 16:58:33 I think it would take Craig, Miller, Martinez, and Tavares to tempt me to trade Felix. Craig is somewhat expendable since he doesn't have a real position in STL and then can keep Adams to take over for Berkman next year. I'd throw in Wilhelmsen as well. I doubt STL would swing a deal like this though. |
| 63. By: rjfrik on 07-18-2012 17:02:15 I would swap out Adams and put Craig in that proposed Cards trade for me to think about it and then I would be doing just that, thinking. Add Martinez along with replacing Adams with Craig to that offer and I would reluctantly have to take it. I wouldn't want to, but I'm not sure how you would pass it up. On another note. How the hell didn't the M's receive one of the new lottery picks!!!!!??????? Pardon my french but this is fucking bullshit! A team that has been one of the worst teams the last 6 years in all of baseball and attendance has dropped every year to the point SafeCo is a ghost town. How do the M's not receive a pick but the Tigers, Dbacks, Reds and Cardinals had a chance and received picks? This is crap and totally unfair. We should have a pick at the end of the 1st round next year. |
| 64. By: masonb on 07-18-2012 17:20:11 Jerry, First of all, I'm the biggest proponent of getting great prospects in the system, but you say Felix isn't worth Trout straight up? You're crazy. Trout is amazing, and in all probability will have a wonderful career, but Felix is proven, and is arguably the best pitcher in baseball. Would the Angels do that? NO. But that's the point man, the flip side to your argument is why would the Mariners trade their only valuable trade chip at this point for a bunch of prospects? Why? If you are in such a hurry to maximize his value, that will be there in the offseason, and maybe you can get a proven young talent for him, but if I'm Z (and I have a feeling that he feels this way) I don't give him up for anything less than a transcendent type of player. You say who wouldn't trade Felix for Cain, Vladdy, and Huff? No one would turn that down, but the flaw in your logic is that there's no guarantee that those guys become that. Shelby Miller is getting shelled in AAA right now, Tavares is proving that he can hit AA pitching. The other guys are good not great. Felix has proven to be one of the best, if not THE best pitcher in baseball. You don't trade someone like that for a bunch of prospects, no matter how good they are. That's a fantastic way to kill a rebuild. I'm sorry man, but your opinion is just flat out wrong, and thank God you aren't at the helm. |
| 65. By: jsmitty on 07-18-2012 17:22:30 Edman, You are correct. It won't make us any better...until 2014. So that would suck. If we do a Felix trade the Cardinals seem to match up the best. I thought that even before the Schoenfeld article. My first choice though is to extend Felix 5 more years which would be through 2019! |
| 66. By: Edman on 07-18-2012 17:40:31 jsmitty, 2014 is very optimistic. Realistically you're probably looking at 2016 and beyond, with so many prospects trying to play at a Major League level. I don't think there is any may Jack trades Felix for prospects, unless he has no choice, and he's not in that situation. That makes it a moot point. |
| 67. By: Edman on 07-18-2012 17:43:24 rjfrik, it's a complete mystery to me as well. I saw that and you've got to be kidding me! Really, the Tigers and Reds get a lottery pick? Their formula is messed up in a big way. |
| 68. By: Jerry on 07-18-2012 17:52:22 The lottery picks are based on team revenue and market size. Not W/L, draft position, or other performance-based criteria. Its been set up to help small market teams, not losing teams. |
| 69. By: jsmitty on 07-18-2012 17:56:50 Edman, Now your being pessimistic. Most of the top prospects we'd aquire (and have now) are currently dominating the upper minors. Plus, don't forget we have a lot of good young talent on the current major league roster: Wilhelmsen, Ramirez, Delabar, Pryor, Furbush, Montero, Ackley, Seager, Wells, Saunders, Luetge, Kelley. I like all of those players and they'll be under club control for awhile. |
| 70. By: Jerry on 07-18-2012 18:11:54 Masonb, I don't mean to be rude, but I don't think you have a good grip on player valuation. I think most reasonable people would agree that Trout is more valuable than Felix. At the most basic level, an elite position player is worth more than an elite pitcher. They play every day. Thus, Joey Votto is worth more than Justin Verlander. Trout is an elite player right now. Plus, he is young, likely to improve, gets paid less, and is under team control for longer. If you think I'm crazy, check out the Player Trade Value piece that is coming out at Fangraphs this week. I bet Trout will be near the top. In terms of his value, if you plan to trade Felix at all, it should happen now. His value will only go down. A team that trades for him will get him for the playoffs this year, plus two more years. That more valuable than next offseason, when he will have one half less year of team control, and there will be more pitching available via trade and free agency. More demand = more value. I don't know why this is so controversial. Its common sense. Look, I love Felix as much as anyone. He's my favorite player. But I like the team more than any player on it. The M's need talent, and their window to make a serious run is 2014-2015 right now. Sorry, but that's the way it is. And Edman, how do you figure that a prospect acquired that is playing in AAA or AA right now won't help till 2016!?! That's just silly. Those guys will get a cup of coffee this year, significant playing next year, and be full-time by 2014. Young players play at a high level all the time. Again, I think way too many of you guys are overreacting to the M's current struggles. Just because Smoak, Ackley, and Montero aren't having a lot of success right now doesn't mean that young players always fail. A huge part of the above is Safeco this year. Seriously, something strange is happening. Look at the road splits for our best youngsters: Ackley: .255/.329/.396 Montero: .297/.338/.432 Smoak: .234/.304/.434 Saunders: .295/.352/.525 Seager: .303/.335/.531 Those numbers are a lot easier to look at, huh? Especially for young players. Honestly, Safeco field is haunted or something. The point is, I think that people are going a bit too far with the youngster-bashing right now. The M's aren't good, but the best way to build a long-term contender isn't by sitting on your hands or focusing on low upside vets. We don't need Michael Cuddyer or Josh Willingham. We need young, good player who can help us in a year or two. And we also need some serious renovations (or an exorcism) at Safeco. |
| 71. By: titans12 on 07-18-2012 19:25:17 When you are as bad as the M's are you have to consider anything.It's strange how people say we have to be patient and believe in this rebuilding with young talent,but when a trade is mentioned for Felix they are just prospects.Felix is a top 10 pitcher but only plays every 5 days.If somebody offered a couple ML ready players who are blocked and 2 elite prospects you would have to think about it. How about Boston: 1-Doubront 2-Lavarnway 3-Sweeney/Kalish 4-L.Anderson 5-Bogaert/Inglesias We would get a Quality young SP.depth at C someone to push Smoak another stud SS and a decent outfielder like Sweeney who has always done good at Safeco. |
| 72. By: masonb on 07-18-2012 20:00:27 Jerry, Not to be rude, but you think you have a better grip on player valuation? Trout has less than 1 yr (or right around 1 yr. of service time). Felix has been one of the game's best pitchers the past 5+. Like I said, I think everyone would agree that moving forward Trout has a high probability of being a great player, but until he does this more consistently then two half seasons (and last year's half a season was below average) I don't think you can say he's worth more than Felix straight up. I'd bet just about no one in Major League circles would agree with you there. Not to mention that you are completely missing the point I'm trying to make where you only trade Felix if it makes sense. His value isn't going to drop until the year before he becomes a free agent. Boston offered Adrian Gonzalez, Clay Buchholz and the Mariner's pick of 5 of 7 of Boston's top prospects when Felix was 1.5 years out from free agency and they turned it down, and that was before he won a Cy Young, so no offense man, but your argument is just kind of weak. I also thing you are being extremely bullish to presume that top prospects acquired now will be full time regulars and productive in 2014. It very well could be the case, but it could just as well be the case that those guys fizzle out in the Majors. There's been a lot of guys who have torn apart the upper levels at a young age and not really done much in the Majors: Dallas McPherson, Gabe Kapler, Brandon Wood, are 3 right off the top of my head. You only trade Felix now if it's for proven Major League talent. If you get down to where he's in his walk year at the deadline or perhaps even the offseason before his walk year, then you start looking at prospect deals, but not when the guy has 2 full years at slightly below market value left on his deal. Not to mention that he's practically the only draw at the ballpark. |
| 73. By: dewey on 07-18-2012 20:14:52 #61 it was Jack who traded Morrow for League not Bavasi.#70 In my opinion a everyday player who is a allstar and a ton cheaper then Felix is worth more for me but thats just my opinion i just think this is one of the best players ive ever seen he does everything. |
| 74. By: rotoenquire on 07-18-2012 21:50:21 I agree there is some over evaluating of our players. Not in the sense there not darn good as in Felix and worth a lot. But that he is worth almost too much because he is our only real large bight spot. I would do Wilhelmsen for Bourjos this is a classic sell high and get low trade. Wilhelmsen stock is huge right now and granted he his worth the hype this year. But we have all seen the dominate kid close to falter and vanish a year later. Bourjos would be a huge get to replace Ichiro next year at the top of a batting order. A reliever for a everyday player is a no-brainier. More so when it is the caliber of Bourjos. Felix could net you a lot, but more comparable to what the M's got from Detroit for Fister. Looking at it that way. Bourjos OF Morales 1B/DH Cowart 3B G. Richards SP J. Walden RP For Felix, Wilhelmsen and maybe a B prospect or League. Remember Fister, Pauley Netted.. C. Ruffin, C. Furbush, C. Wells, F. Martinez. So Felix would net higher talent in return. NO WAY! You get Trumbo and Trout in one deal If the Angels did that deal there GM would need to be fired! Neither Trout nor Trumbo can be had. I have always said you do not trade Felix unless you get a large deal and you do not start to listen to deal until you get the impression Felix wants out. |
| 75. By: dawgncarolina on 07-18-2012 22:01:16 Have to side with Jerry here, Trout has either the highest or second highest trade value in baseball. Felix is probably in the teens or 20's. There's no way the Angels are dealing Trout for Felix straight up, and they certainly aren't throwing in Bourjos and Trumbo as well. That's absolutely crazy talk. I love Felix like an alcoholic loves $1 pitcher night, but I'd deal him straight up for Trout in a nanosecond. |
| 76. By: dawgncarolina on 07-18-2012 22:10:56 "Boston offered Adrian Gonzalez, Clay Buchholz and the Mariner's pick of 5 of 7 of Boston's top prospects when Felix was 1.5 years out from free agency and they turned it down, and that was before he won a Cy Young, so no offense man, but your argument is just kind of weak. " There's no way this is true. You got a link for that? |
| 77. By: Dmitriy1992 on 07-18-2012 22:59:19 Dawgncarolina If I remember it was two separate deals. One where we would of gotten Adrian Gonzalez plus a couple of pieces and the other was basically a choice of 5 red sox prospects. Your point is still valid. A team will pay pretty much the same exact value for Felix now or at the next deadline. Therefore we are in no hurry to trade Felix. Give all of our young players the rest of this year and the offseason to work on their many holes. We can go back to this conversation of trading Felix next year. Now the M's should focus on acquiring some players with low value right now who would hopefully do well with a change of scenery (I.E. Snider, Ramirez (Marlins), etc.) Jason or anyone know what it would require to get a Snider or a Ramirez type player here. Also I am all in favor of trading pretty much every bullpen piece (other then Capps/Pryor) to acquire solid prospects as bullpen arms are way too inconsistent from year to year. |
| 78. By: dawgncarolina on 07-18-2012 23:18:04 That's how I remember it too, Dmitry. There's no way we could have had AGon (who Boston didn't even have at that time), plus Bucholz, plus 5 prospects. That's crazy talk. |
| 79. By: Rudolf on 07-19-2012 00:28:51 Felix isn't going to net us Trout and Trumbo, perhaps Trout alone. Understandably we all can get a little bullish on our own players, especially someone we've come to love like Felix. But let's not sell the guy short!. He is what every team wants more than anything: a #1 starter who can mow through playoff teams. Felix throws complete game shutouts against the Rangers, Yankees and Red Sox. Can you imagine what he would do to the National League? The opportunity to send him out twice in a playoff series for the next three years, plus exclusive negotiating rights to extend the now 26-year-old workhorse for the rest of his prime years is worth more than any pile of prospects can total. There just isn't a realistic prospect package out there. Machado, Bundy, + doesn't cut it. Profar, Olt, Perez doesn't cut it. Miller, Martinez, Taveras doesn't cut it. Myers, Odorizzi, + doesn't cut it. These highly-touted prospects may or may not deliver on their promise someday, but Felix Hernandez is blowing m-----f-----s up right now and it ain't stopping for years. Felix is almost the perfect player: dominant, charismatic, passionate, durable, accountable, and he shuts down top offenses. If his salary were lower he would be the perfect player, but he wouldn't have 2.5 years left on his contract. How any of you would sell him off for cost-controlled AA prospects is beyond me. |
| 80. By: sexymarinersfan on 07-19-2012 01:42:42 Agreed with everything Rudolph just said. Unless someone is blowing us an unbelievable offer of proven talent, no way. The Yankees offered us any nine of their prospects this past year for Felix. Jack told us all himself at Fanfest. Jason, saw Pryor pitch tonight right before Pauley, and Stephen was in the 94-96 mph range for his fastball(only touching 96 once), is his cell down because of his injury, or what? Thanks again. |
| 81. By: dewey on 07-19-2012 01:43:36 I allways here where our prospects our too good to trade for teams #1 starters but theres arent good enough for ours? I love Felix but i kind of feel sorry for him being stuck here with this team great pitcher awful team it kind of sucks for him. I scratch my head trying to figure out how to turn this team around im not real sure about the rebuild i hope it works but so far its been spotty at best the kids they have sold us on havent done it but im trying to be patient |
| 82. By: sexymarinersfan on 07-19-2012 01:50:53 I meant velocity down. Because of his injury, or are they purposefully asking him to dial it down a bit? |
| 83. By: Jerry on 07-19-2012 06:55:03 @Rudolf #79: Machado, Bundy, + doesn't cut it. Profar, Olt, Perez doesn't cut it. Miller, Martinez, Taveras doesn't cut it. Myers, Odorizzi, + doesn't cut it. I would take any of those packages, and the M's would be absolutely crazy to pass them up. Those are all elite guys. I think a lot of people here need to temper their evaluations of our guys relative to players on other clubs. Try to put yourself on the other side of the equation: would you trade Walker, Hultzen, and Zunino for Matt Cain? Again, I'm not saying Felix isn't awesome. I think Rudolf is right that he is close to the perfect pitcher. But pitchers are volatile. Look at Tim Lincecum, Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, etc. For every Pedro Martinez, there are 5 Kevin Browns: guys who dominated for 3-5 yrs, then declined rapidly. And Felix has racked up a lot of innings at a young age. I don't think any of those clubs would make those trades, but I would pull the trigger on any of them (the KC deal would need to include very good additioal payers to sweeten the deal a bit, tho). |
| 84. By: titans12 on 07-19-2012 07:27:11 I agree those are some packages that you cant pass on. These are not just prospects-Profar is going to be great better than Elvis.There is no way these teams would gut their systems to aquire even Felix. I like Gose,d'Arnaud,Hechivarria (Toronto)also. |
| 85. By: masonb on 07-19-2012 07:48:48 http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/marinersblog/2009591133_mariners_turned_down_three-way.html Felix could have been traded for Gonzalez, and prospects from Boston, including Buchholz (who was considered a big time can't miss prospect in 09) When I was talking about Trumbo and Trout from Anaheim, I wasn't saying that that is necessarily a trade that any team should do, but that considering that Z would be trading Felix to a division rival, you'd absolutely have to get young Major League ready talent back. You don't trade Felix to a division rival for prospects. That's just a stupid idea. As far as trading him now, you don't do it unless you get a star back. Some of these prospect packages people are throwing out there are pretty awesome, but you just don't trade the only real asset you have for a package of prospects that could end up being duds. Look no further that the Cliff Lee deal a few years back. Sure the situations are different because of the leverage the team had as compared to what they'd have with Felix now, but Smoak was considered to be a can't miss/untouchable kind of prospect, and look what happened with him. That's why you don't trade your stud pitcher, and the best one in the Majors for a boatload of prospects. 2-3 really good Major League players > 4-5 prospects where half of them could end up sucking. Too many "ace" pitchers have been traded for a boatload of prospects and how has that worked out for Minnesota when they traded Santana, Cleveland when they traded Lee and Sabathia. Seattle has ALL of the leverage right now, and if no team is willing to overpay then you don't do it. If Felix goes out and blows his arm out tomorrow then so be it. That's the risk you take when you have an all world pitcher, but just because there is a risk that he could have some catastrophic injury, doesn't mean that you have to trade him now to hedge against that. That's how GM's get fired in this league |
| 86. By: Edman on 07-19-2012 09:15:23 I suppose this is a fun exercize for some, but Felix isn't getting traded right now. The only way he gets traded is if the Mariners feel that he'll be a Free Agent at the end of his contract, and that isn't happening. A trade for Felix would have to be a dramatic overpay, so IMO magman is right. If you want Felix, make a ridiculous offer, or don't call. |
| 87. By: Jerry on 07-19-2012 09:55:43 Mason, Again, I think you have Justin-Smoak-sucks-induced Myopia. You are vastly overstating the propensity for top prospects to fail. And you are vastly underestimating the propensity for "proven ML players" to fail. The trades you brought up (Santana, Lee, and Sabathia) aren't really comparable because they were nearing free agency. The earlier Lee deals are sorta inexplicable to me. Those clubs definitely chose quantity over quality. Philly didn't give up any top prospects, and didn't receive any back either. No idea how that worked. But you are right. Prospects to fail. And you are right. Proven ML players hardly ever fail. Oh, wait..... What about Johan Santana, Ben Sheets, Barry Zito, Mark Mulder, Josh Beckett, Edinson Volquez, Ervin Santana, Carlos Zambrano, and Brandon Webb? Going back further, you have Kevin Brown, Mike Hampton, Kerry Wood, Jason Schmidt, and Bartolo Colon. All those guys were among the better pitchers in baseball, then suddenly fell apart (or at least became very unreliable). That's the thing: pitchers are volatile. How about our very own Oliver Perez. He was one of the top young pitchers in baseball for a few years before he fell apart. So was Eric Bedard. How did the Bedard deal work out for the O's??? Even closer to home: the Jesus Montero deal. Even though Montero hasn't been as awesome as we'd hoped, we made a great deal: we traded a very good young pitcher for a very good young hitter. What happened next: Pineda blows out his labrum and very likely will never be the same. This type of thing happens all the time. Honestly, I hope this doesn't happen, because Felix is one of my favorite players. But who's to say that Felix doesn't end up like Kerry Wood or Ben Sheets or Brandon Webb? And look at what happened to Tim Lincecum this year. And Dan Haren. And Josh Johnson. And Jon Lester. And Ubaldo Jimenez. And Chad Billingsley. Even when they aren't injured, sometimes pitchers just lose it. This is something you have to keep in mind. Felix is the face of the franchise, and everyone's favorite player. But: 1. He's only signed for two more years, just outside the M's most probable window for contending 2. He's a pitcher, and thus an inherently volatile commodity 3. He's a pitcher, and his value isn't as high as an equally talented position player. 4. His value will never get higher than it is right now. 5. With him, the team sucks. Its not like you are costing the club a ton of W's. 6. The M's need talent, and a Felix trade could jump-start this rebuild immediately. 7. Even though he isn't overpaid, he still costs a ton. The M's could reallocate that money in a lot of different ways, including locking up the young players on the team and bringing in free agents (lots of interesting names like Zach Greinke, Anibal Sanchez, Francisco Liriano, and Shawn Marcum are likely to be available). 8. The M's have a lot of minor league pitching depth, and are well situated to put together a great rotation even without him. 9. Think about how many teams we've brought up with both the need and the talent to swing a deal: TEX, ANA, KC, DET, BOS, STL, etc. Thats a lot of demand, and all it takes is one team to mortgage their future. It sucks to think about trading the teams best player. But it just makes a lot of sense on multiple levels. All it takes is one team to go crazy and overpay. The club would be stupid to not entertain offers on him. |
| 88. By: Jerry on 07-19-2012 10:04:33 Mason, One more thing. "...just because there is a risk that he could have some catastrophic injury, doesn't mean that you have to trade him now to hedge against that. That's how GM's get fired in this league." No, its not. The way GMs get fired is by fielding a losing team for years on end. GMs also get fired for not recognizing where there club is in terms of rebuilding versus contending. When they do this, they do stupid things like sign mediocre veterans in free agency and gut the farm system to make poorly reasoned trades for ace pitchers, gritty vets, and role players (see Bill Bavasi). That's the crux of my argument: trading Felix is one of the best ways to build enough talent to truly compete with Texas and LA. Regardless of what we do, that's not likely to happen in the next two years, regardless of whether Felix is on the team or not. |
| 89. By: masonb on 07-19-2012 10:20:36 Jerry, Agree to disagree. I get your argument. I understand the trade your most valuable commodity for top prospects argument, but with all things being equal, the Mariners aren't in a postition to F this up if they do decide to trade him, which is why you trade him for proven Major League players. That doesn't mean you have to trade him for higher salaried guys in the middle of their prime. You could target young guys about to enter their prime. i.e. players LIKE but certainly not limited to Stanton, Trout, Trumbo, etc. You don't trade your only asset for something unproven. If it works you're lucky. If it doesn't you set the franchise back even more. That's a stupid risk to take. You aren't going to convince me otherwise. You can throw out other Major League arms and cherry pick the ones that blew their arms out early, but that has absolutely NO correlation with Felix. Some of those guys has horrible mechanics, some of them had a history of minor injuries that foreshadowed arm problems. Felix has never had any type of arm problems in the past. Does that mean that he won't go out an maybe blow his arm out today? No, but it the inverse isn't true either. The whole argument that his value is only going down is stupid. Yeah in a year from now that would be the case, but the time to trade a guy like that is in the offseason. You don't get premium value for a guy like that during the offseason because teams would be hesitant to part with the type of players Seattle would require. His value won't be any less if he were to be traded THIS offseason. He'd be signed for 2 more years. I think the time to trade him is then. You would have had the rest of the season to evaluate Walker, Hultzen, and Paxton, and really know where you stand. Like I said, I get your argument, but you don't trade your only valuable asset for a bunch of other unknown assets. That's what I was referring to when GM's get hired. Do you really think that StL package of prospects for instance would make this team better this year, or next? No, and probably not in '14 either. It takes time for young guys to develop. That's being played out right in front of your eyes. You could acquire young superstar type talents for Felix and it would fit into a rebuild fine. It's not like I'm advocating he be dealt for a bunch of 30+ players |
| 90. By: dawgncarolina on 07-19-2012 10:24:23 "Felix could have been traded for Gonzalez, and prospects from Boston, including Buchholz (who was considered a big time can't miss prospect in 09)" Which is a lot different than Gonzalez + Bucholz + 5 of the Red Sox top 7 prospects that you were claiming earlier. |
| 91. By: dawgncarolina on 07-19-2012 10:26:47 "When I was talking about Trumbo and Trout from Anaheim, I wasn't saying that that is necessarily a trade that any team should do, but that considering that Z would be trading Felix to a division rival, you'd absolutely have to get young Major League ready talent back." No disagreement there, but you absolutely take Trout straight up (although there's no way Anaheim would do that). You have to remember, in this hypothetical, Anaheim is trading with a division rival also. And Trout would be overpaying for Felix. |
| 92. By: masonb on 07-19-2012 10:29:32 Read the article Dawg. It very clearly states Gonzalez, and 5 of the 7 prospects from Boston. My bad, it was one less guy. And I understand the why would Anaheim trade Trout argument. But it's the same with Seattle. Why would Seattle trade Felix for less than an overpay? |
| 93. By: dawgncarolina on 07-19-2012 10:34:12 No it doesn't. I read the article, here's what it says: "So, the three teams start discussing a possible three-way deal with Seattle that would send Gonzalez to the Mariners, along with Buchholz and a couple of other Red Sox prospects." You're also conveniently leaving out that the M's would have had to include Morrow, Aumont and Triunfel. |
| 94. By: dawgncarolina on 07-19-2012 10:34:41 "And I understand the why would Anaheim trade Trout argument. But it's the same with Seattle. Why would Seattle trade Felix for less than an overpay?" Trout would be an overpay. |
| 95. By: titans12 on 07-19-2012 10:45:03 You an't compare thi to a Lee trade. He was a rental as well as Sabathia and others. Look what Toronto got for Halladay-I love Felix and he is one of my favorite players but the bottom line is we want to win here.There is no way he comes back after his contract is up when we have to compete against offers from the big boys.We won't win while he is here so lets cash in he is truly valuable to pennant contenders now |
| 96. By: maqman on 07-19-2012 11:12:17 No disrespect meant but didn't anyone pay attention when Z said he's not trading Felix? A fantasy is not the same as reality guys, get a grip. |
| 97. By: titans12 on 07-19-2012 11:13:39 That is GM speak-If he gets an awesome offer he has to think about it |
| 98. By: Edman on 07-19-2012 11:33:42 Of course it is, titans. The Angels would listen to offers for Trout, if someone was willing to give up twice the value in return. And how many GMs do you think would be willing to do that? Realistically, none. And none will give up what it takes to get Felix. So yes, he won't be traded. |
| 99. By: baseballman on 07-19-2012 11:48:21 Please stop including Felix in all these make belief, fantasyland trades. It's not happening and especially not for what anyone thinks. |
| 100. By: Rudolf on 07-19-2012 11:57:06 Agree with Masonb and the stupid risk of prospects. titans, your Boston offer sucks and you sound like a Toronto fanboy. I understand this is a minor league player focused website, but let's not give too much weight to guys who haven't faced major league caliber players yet. Let's look at 2008's top 20 prospects according to BA: In order: Bruce, Longoria, Chamberlain, Bucholtz, Rasmus, Maybin, Kershaw, Morales, Baily, Price, Snider, Weiters, Ellsbury, McCutchen, McGee, Wood, Davis, Andrus, Fernando Martinez. Seven of them are basically nothing. Six of them are stars, (although Ellsbury had only one great year and Bruce is a minor star). Andrus could become a star. The next 20 includes: Porcello, LaPorta, Adenhart, Shafer, Marrero, Miller, Fukudome, Laroche, Headly, Villalona, Guerra, Tabata, Stewart, Brignac, and the immortal Lars Anderson. There was also Cargo, Gio Gonzalez, Heyward, Cueto, and Brett Anderson. Would you have been able to pick the 5 best of the twenty? The next 20 contained only one star, Joey Votto. The following 20 had no stars and by far the best were Masterson and Scherzer. Now 2008 boasted a hell of a lot more quality prospects than 2012. I don't think anyone would argue with that. The bottom line is prospects are a grab bag. Very few are sure things, and even Jurickson Profar doesn't project to be all world like many of the #1 prospects that came before him. Take a top 10 prospect, two more top 50 prospects, and a top 100 prospect, and who knows what the hell you're gonna get? Half of these top 100 prospects become nothing. Few become stars. If we were to end up with a two-win player, a three-win player, and a 4-win player, would we be satisfied with the return for Felix freakin' Hernandez? What if we ended up with less? And that doesn't even raise the question of how many years this would set back the team, or whether Seattle will find another ace pitcher to lead us into the playoffs, since we've had exactly two since 1977. |
| 101. By: titans12 on 07-19-2012 12:56:02 Yea if that happened we could risk losing 95-100 games for years and seeing our fan base dwindle-oh wait that has already happend !We are going nowhere and he will bring in a haul.Not just prospects either. |
| 102. By: Edman on 07-19-2012 12:58:28 titans, you see those yellow shirts when Felix pitches? They pay to be there, do you? |
| 103. By: titans12 on 07-19-2012 13:34:50 I sure do-my seats are very close to those guys and it is awesome,but the only way to fill that place is to win. Teams like Texas and Anaheim have taken chances to turn things around and have finally paid off. We need to take a chance nothing is for sure even with Felix he could start sliding backwards anytime or get hurt. He has thrown a ton of innings at his age. I would only consider an amazing offer with 2-ML ready pieces and 2 top prospects.Just at least listen to other teams you never know |
| 104. By: StandinPat on 07-19-2012 13:37:12 So even though it has nothing to do with Jason's article, and we've been told multiple times by multiple sources that trading Felix just isn't in the cards, we've decided to ignore common sense and make nonsense rosterbating post after nonsense rosterbating post. Awesome guys. |
| 105. By: Edman on 07-19-2012 13:53:05 Jack listens to every offer, that's his job. But nobody is going to give him what Felix is worth to Seattle. |
| 106. By: titans12 on 07-19-2012 13:54:08 We have also been told multiple times that this team is gonna start winning-well it hasn't so we can dream got nothing else going with this mess.Do you remember what a pennant race even feels like? Nobody knows for sure what is really happening behind the scenes none of us so chill out |
| 107. By: Jerry on 07-19-2012 14:21:47 Edman, Titans is right. Even for home games that Felix pitches (which will be about 16 games per year) there is only a few thousand extra tickets sold. Look it up. The article by Schoenfield includes exact attendance stats. The idea that one player is enough to keep a team economically viable is completely bunk. We used to hear that same lame argument RE Ichiro. There is a direct relationship between wins and attendance, though. That's not a myth. Win games = sell more tickets Get to playoffs = sell way more tickets The best way to increase attendance is to build a consistent contender. The best way to build a consistent contender is to stockpile a lot of talent. This is business. The team needs to make the best decision for the long-term success of the franchise. If they are making decisions based on the number of yellow t-shirts in the cheap seats for 16 games each year, they need to be fired. |
| 108. By: titans12 on 07-19-2012 14:50:13 Edman -very well said! That right there is what this is all about. Nobody doesn't want Felix on this team we just want to start winning.Seattle is a very unique baseball town-great fans ,very passionate,but they crave a winner. If you win and I mean just keep it exciting till the end and they will swarm to the field.Nobody can say for sure that any move will work out but we need to do something with the offense soon.Pitching depth we have-and you can get free agent pitchers here but you can't bring in hitters via free agency and we can't keep putting these young guys in situations they can only fail with no protection in the lineup.All we have is hope and trying to figure out a way to get better. |
| 109. By: Edman on 07-19-2012 15:52:09 Felix isn't getting traded this year....end of story. Why so much discussion is made about what isn't going to happen is utterly amazing. |
| 110. By: rotoenquire on 07-19-2012 18:53:32 You go to satellite radio they talk about it a lot more so now. Hamels maybe on the verge of signing a 6 year deal to stay in Phillie. Grienke looks to be hurt and may not be worth a team taking a chance. Start looking down the guys who are SP for trade and what a team would really want to make a run at a championship. Felix would be the top dog hands down. The stars have aligned and this could be the best time to deal him ever! Be interesting to see what happens in the next few weeks. Proven talent back and prospect could happen. Sorry Edman I tossed this all out there and got it going.. But, isn't it fun! over 100 COMMENTS in one thread.. Awesome! |
| 111. By: Mackie on 07-19-2012 21:03:45 Is there really any reason to be discussing trading Felix? Other than that it's fun to speculate on what the M's might be able to get for him in a trade! And it has been great reading all the thoughtful comments! 8-) What do you all think the M's could get in trade for League, Wilhelmsen, Vargas, maybe Olivo... If we could get something like the Astros got (Lowrie) for what they traded away (Melancon), I'd be thrilled. |
| 112. By: dewey on 07-19-2012 21:04:54 #96 Is that the same Z who said Smoak was a middle of the order runproducer future allstar? |
| 113. By: Edman on 07-19-2012 21:49:11 dewey, is your only purpose here to crap on Jack and the Mariners? Oh, and just for the sake of correctness, Jack never claimed that any Mariner is a future All-Star, that is your assumption. |
| 114. By: dawgncarolina on 07-19-2012 22:13:51 "#96 Is that the same Z who said Smoak was a middle of the order runproducer future allstar?" Link or your story is a lie |
| 115. By: dewey on 07-20-2012 05:40:27 Not that computer savy it was said when he was traded for.No Edman it isnt my only purpose but if you havent noticed not much has come to fruition that he has said.Where can i get a pair of those rose colored glasses you where? Should we praise this club just because we live here and like baseball? |
| 116. By: Edman on 07-20-2012 09:49:07 dewey, Jack never makes player predictions, so I don't know where the hell you pulled that rabbit from, but it isn't a hat. I'm certain that you have arranged the things Jack has said in your mind so that the voices tell you Jack said them. I don't wear rose colored glasses. Nobody is asking you to praise them, but you clearly are dillustional if you think that team success was going to occur in a single season. What many are missing is the the offense is clearly better, that's what I'm looking for. Over all, with a couple of exceptions, the offense is cleary better. Not where it needs to be, but it's trending the right way. Smoak, Ryan, and the starting pitching (sans Felix) is struggling a bit, but Ramirez will be returning soon and Hultzen isn't far from getting called up to Seattle. See that, dewey, that's actually explaining my position, rather than posting drive-by bitching. |
| 117. By: cdiggins@whidbey.com on 07-20-2012 10:25:11 The M's are now leading ML's in away games: runs and HR's...so this just demonstrates that Z has put together the talent to win.They were last in runs last year and now first in at least away games. Something has to be done about Safeco, for sure ? And they are doing this without veteran leadership and learning under pressure and making adjustments to succeed.We will see how they do against the Rays who are close to .516. If they can take 2 of 3 from them, that would be great. I think this is turning into an interesting season...except when at Safeco. But maybe it is just a "head" thing and they can overcome it. or maybe they can only beat AAA clubs like KC...we shall see. |
| 118. By: Edman on 07-20-2012 10:48:26 Looking at the numbers, it's clearly a head thing, and some bad luck. Safeco is a difficult place to hit, but not impossible. I think they do need to bring the fences in, for right and center fields, but nothing drastic. But, there is no reason they can't hit singles, doubles and triples. Other teams do. |
| 119. By: cdiggins@whidbey.com on 07-20-2012 11:16:26 But, Edman, this year even the visiting clubs are hitting more poorly than in the past. Maybe the air is heavier this year? Who knows? |
| 120. By: maqman on 07-21-2012 11:12:44 That's not entirely implausible. Whether you buy into global warming or not the weather this year is unusual. Most of the U.S. is exceptionally hot and dry. Here in England June and July have been the wettest in over a century and prior to June over half the country was declared to be in a drought, now the flooding has just about ended. There is an El Nino kicking of in the Pacific, fewer hurricanes are expected. The jet stream over the Atlantic had shifted further south than usual which caused all the rain over Britain. Seattle is located at about the same latitude as Britain. If you have cooler, moister air than normal, given the airflow in Safeco is from left field toward home plate that would indeed dampen hits in that direction. Lets see what happens to the hitting on some hot and dry days. |
| 121. By: rightwingrick on 07-22-2012 17:22:54 All the things that make Wilhelmsen attractive to others makes him equally attractive to Seattle, who has a sharp eye on the budget. That, plus the fact that Zduriencik has signed Wilhelmsen not once, but twice, and obviously likes what "The Bartender" brings to the table, suggests to me he WON'T be traded. Brandon League is pitching himself back into a relief pitcher with value (and great stuff), and Kevin Millwood is pitching well and doesn't fit into the future here. I suspect they would go before Wilhelmsen. Vargas, too, has increasing value, but he's looking better each year, is good veteran presence with some years ahead of him, and he's Felix's best friend on the team...so Vargas may stay. In addition to Millwood and League, even Iwakuma might be moved, and so might Oliver Perez. |
| 122. By: slamcactus on 07-23-2012 09:23:40 @121: Relief aces are much, much more valuable to contending teams. The market reflects this. If Wilhelmsen can bring back a player who can be part of a good core, trading him is a no-brainer. |
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