| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 07-27-2009 |
It's clear the Seattle Mariners need a shortstop. They need one for now, and they need one for 2010 and beyond. It's clear that the club's next everyday starter at the position will come from somewhere outside the organization and it's also clear that GM Jack Zduriencik is looking for one.To this point we've heard, read or speculated about several candidates, but four of them more than the rest. Those four are Jack Wilson of the Pittsburgh Pirates, J.J. Hardy of the Milwaukee Brewers, Reid Brignac, the Tampa Bay Rays starter in Triple-A Durham and Brewers prospect Alcides Escobar.
I've seen plenty of Jack Wilson and J.J. Hardy on television, had some recent conversations with a scout on both of them, and have gotten a lot of feedback on the two prospects, Brignac and Escobar.
I saw Escobar in Cheney for eight at-bats and 12 innings of defense, and got a chance to see him in fielding drills. I just received some video of Brignac defensively, and I guess I'm ready to come to some sort of conclusion on each of the four candidates.
J.J. Hardy
Hardy, a right-handed hitter, has above-average raw power that he's shown inconsistently over the past three seasons, and average contact rates -- good enough to ward off concerns about the 26-year-old racking up too many whiffs to be good enough at the dish.
He possesses above-average bat speed, but has problems covering the plate away, and will get himself out early in counts against good pitchers. He's yet to show a consistent ability to use the opposite field, but will do so on occasion. Almost all of his power is to his pull side, and, naturally, tends to get pull happy when he's trying to hit for power.
"He'll make good game-to-game adjustments sometimes," one club's special assignment scout said. "And from series to series, he does fine. He's a dangerous hitter because he will take you deep if you make a mistake, but you can get him out on stuff out of the middle (of the zone) and he is susceptible to the strike out. I'd say he has average pitch recognition and strike zone judgment and he gets most of his extra bases on a good swing and some strength."
Hardy is unlikely to hit for high average consistently -- the '09 strikeout rate would have to improve for him to have a shot at hitting near .300 regularly -- and he doesn't draw a lot of walks. He will work the count at satisfactory levels, but he's stays aggressive and will expand his strike zone, looking to get a pitch to hit rather than force the pitcher to throw him a strike.
Defensively, Hardy has above-average range and arm strength, good hands and is solid around the bag. His UZR/150 currently sits at 13.4, among the best in baseball among shortstops, and he does it with both instinct and physical skills.
He's struggling at the plate this year, posting a .231/.298/.374, but his BABIP is down to .257 after entering the year with a realistic mark over .280 for his career. Both his line drive and ground ball percentages are down, which means he's striking out more and hitting more fly balls than during the past three seasons, but here's where the BABIP luck comes into play. His HR/F rate is down 5.2% from a year ago and about 4% from his career mark.
Hardy has above-average foot speed but isn't a base stealer, having swiped a career-best two this year.
He's under club control through 2010 and after making $4.65 million in 2009, should be set to make more than $6 million in 2010 before hitting free agency following the season.
If the M's can get their hands on Hardy, he's a major upgrade and is a good bet to rebound from his down season at the plate. Safeco might hurt his overall power numbers, but there's no reason to believe he'd have problem putting up above-average offensive seasons in the American League. If his defensive value is anywhere near what his UZR suggests, he's one of the top six or eight shortstops in baseball.
I'm not a big fan, I think there are better options out there for the Mariners, but Hardy is the most equipped to help the club the most in 2009 and 2010. It will just take a lot more than Jarrod Washburn to pry him away from Milwaukee.
Jack Wilson
Wilson is, by all accounts, an all-glove, no-hit shortstop right now. He's hitting .265/.300/.386 to date and his career .311 OBP suggests that after parts of nine seasons in the big leagues, he is what he is.
Defensively is where Wilson makes his mark, posting a career UZR/150 of 5.6, including a 16.7 in 2008 and a 19.5 through July 26 of this season. To give you an idea how good that is, it's the best in baseball right now, to Hardy's No. 2 mark at 13.4 and Elvis Andrus' 10.1.
Wilson is owed about $3.5 million for the rest of '09 and has a club option for $8.4 million for 2010 that includes a $600,000 buyout. He can block a trade to six clubs, but the Mariners are not one of them. (Marlins, Nationals, Royals, A's, Padres, Cincinnati)
At 31, Wilson is the final quadrant of his career and the last leg of whatever prime he's having, and is much more of a stop-gap or secondary, short-term option.
Reid Brignac
I wrote about Brignac right here where I said I liked the idea of acquiring him.
Brignac is a solid defender, going to his right very well and using better positioning and footwork to improve his range to his left. His arm strength is more than adequate and he displays natural shortstop actions consistently.
He runs well, about a 55 on the 20-80 scale, but is unlikely to be more than an average base stealer.
At the plate is where Brignac could separate himself. He possesses above-average bat speed and above-average raw power. His selectivity at the plate is the key to his power -- if he avoids getting too aggressive or impatient where he settles for a pitcher's pitch, he'll maximize his power potential. He covers the plate well enough to give him a chance to hit for average and he makes satisfactory contact.
Brignac is currently hitting .284/.340/.453 with 26 walks and 41 strikeouts at Triple-A Durham and his splits are solid, too.
If he maxes out offensively, he may be better than Hardy's best year, and he has a similar defensive upside.
The Rays don't need Brignac, with Bartlett in as the starter and prospect Tim Beckham working his way up through the minors, but they also don't need to trade him, either.
All of the above means Tampa isn't giving him away and it'll take an equally valuable package to get him.
Alcides Escobar
I saved Escobar for last because I believe he'll be the most difficult to get. Not because he's the best player of the group, necessarily, but because of the Brewers current situation and the status of their starter, Hardy, making Escobar a tough pry.
The positives include good speed, terrific range at short with a plus arm. He has an advantage in range and speed over Brignac, but his tools and displayed skills in Triple-A suggest similar abilities to hit for average and get on base.
Most scouts, however, seriously doubt that Escobar ever provides more than average power, if he even reaches that level. Ten to fifteen home runs is the typical projection, and he'll need to make a lot of adjustments in his swing is he's to do that, particularly at Safeco Field as a right-handed hitter.
His patience and pitch recognition grade below-average, but he does cover the plate well.
He's not really lightning quick, either, when it comes to foot speed, as he's better under way -- he's more like Brian Hunter than he is Kenny Lofton -- fast, doesn't run smoothly and takes long strides, which can help him in the field. His footwork is adequate.
One scout thinks Escobar might have problems hitting for average in the big leagues due to poor pitch selection and problems with an inconsistent swing, and even went as far as to say he needs another year in Triple-A (through about the halfway mark in 2010 or so).
Of the four candidates, Escobar would cost the most and probably has the third best upside + probability, behind Brignac and the already-established Hardy.
But if trading for Brignac by himself is going to take more than the Mariners are willing to give up, or the Rays are insisting on the M's taking on Kazmir's contract, Hardy may be the best the Mariners can do, and that goes for the coming winter as well.
Orlando Cabrera, Wilson and a slew of also-rans are the only starting-quality shortstops that may be eligible for free agency, and Hanley Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins and Jose Reyes aren't likely to become available any time soon.
The other shortstop prospects, such as the Dodgers' Ivan Dejesus, Jr., Colorado's Hector Gomez, Philly's Jason Donald and Tampa's Beckham, are either too far away from the big leagues (Beckham), battling back from major injury (Donald, DeJesus) or below-average in too many areas to project as a big-league regular (Gomez), leaving the Mariners, and any other club looking for a shortstop, in a bit of a pickle.
the-shortstop-market
Comments
The following 19 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: The Great Pumpkin on 07-27-2009 23:43:50 Great write-up. If you had to bet on it, who's playing SS on opening day next year for the Mariners? |
| 2. By: CrustyJuggler on 07-28-2009 00:05:17 "He's hitting .319/.373/.406 versus left-handed pitchers -- as a right-handed batter, of course -- and .275/.333/.473 versus right-handed pitchers, batting lefty." Jason, am I taking crazy pills here but this is the second or third time I've seen you tout Brignac as a switch hitter. Every bio I've seen of him says he only bats left handed. |
| 3. By: CrustyJuggler on 07-28-2009 00:13:35 I wonder what it would take to get a Kazmir/Brignac package straight up with the Rays. I know we had a lot of that manage a trois talk involving the Indians but I wouldn't be surprised if the Indians were the ones to balk at that 3-way. You know.. if it ever had any legs to begin with. |
| 4. By: rjfrik on 07-28-2009 00:37:03 I think the player we get is Brignac. I don't see Hardy or Escobar coming back for Washburn. I think Washburn nets us a couple of Brewers prospects not named Escobar, IMO. |
| 5. By: DAMellen on 07-28-2009 00:40:21 The other day, you made it sound like you thought getting Brignac was worth absorbing Kazmir. This sounds like maybe you've reconsidered. So let's be as straight forward as possible. What do you think Jason? Would you deal Morrow and Clement if it netted us Brignac and Kazmir? |
| 6. By: FWBrodie on 07-28-2009 00:42:29 Jason, I was a little suprised at the way you discussed Scott Kazmir's contract. Do you believe that being asked to take on the full contract would be a deal-breaker for the M's? What is your take on his struggles in 2009 and how does he project moving forward? I would think that buying low on Kazmir would be a great help to the rotation next season and beyond, but I would like read your take on that. |
| 7. By: CrustyJuggler on 07-28-2009 00:55:49 With the Mariners lack of SP depth going forward, how can taking on Kazmir be a bad thing? Sure he's had his struggles but his arm is sound and 2yrs/20 mil isn't completely outlandish. Not for the type of potential he has (and has shown). |
| 8. By: Jason A. Churchill on 07-28-2009 00:57:41 I hope nobody saw that I called Scott Kazmir Snott Kazm. I'll wake up, I promise. |
| 9. By: Jason A. Churchill on 07-28-2009 01:01:13 DAMellen, I'd do that deal, but Cleveland would not, at least not what was reported. I heard two other M's prospects were going to have to be involved to get it done. TB certainly looks at sending Kazmir out for Lee as a salary dump, for the most part. 28 mil is quite the chunk of change. |
| 10. By: CrustyJuggler on 07-28-2009 01:06:08 "yay!" on Poythress, BTW. |
| 11. By: DAMellen on 07-28-2009 01:13:16 I had heard that Tampa was the one sending out extra prospects, which made sense to me. Yeah, they're only under contract one more year each, but Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez can play some ball. They're worth more than Reid Brignac and a salary dump of a good but injury prone player. |
| 12. By: PositivePaul on 07-28-2009 01:30:59 I'm still hoping my "POYTHRESS, YES!" thing catches on. Huge fan, of course... |
| 13. By: Jason A. Churchill on 07-28-2009 01:32:03 Cleveland gets utterly shafted in that deal without getting more and Tampa was not willing include Wade Davis. Hence the deal being on the back burner. And TB is TRYING to pass Kazmir off as a salary dump. Think about it from their POV. |
| 14. By: Jason A. Churchill on 07-28-2009 01:37:55 I'm 100% sure it was Clement and Morrow only. FTR. |
| 15. By: DAMellen on 07-28-2009 01:48:20 If I'm looking at this from Tampa's POV, making it back to the playoffs is important to me (and I really don't want people to think last year was a fluke). I'm already behind and need to make up some ground on one of two good teams so I should probably upgrade my rotation, my pen, or my catcher (ideally all three). I have a ton of good pitching in the minors so I've got some to spare. Plus I've found someone who will take on some of my salary allowing me to improve elsewhere. If I'm Tampa, I think adding Wade Davis or Jeremy Hellickson to the deal is justified. Too bad they disagree. Who else would the Mariners have to throw in? |
| 16. By: safecochatter on 07-28-2009 04:53:07 don't think brewers will move the veteran Hardy during a playoff drive. and the seasoning and timing of Escobar will allow the brewers to let hardy go fa after 2010. and wilson just doesn't do much for the team. which leads us back to tampa. if i'm jack,i get a feel for what tampa wants,and try to pick up those pieces in the Washburn trade and then flip them (plus another player if necessary)to tampa for Brignac. |
| 17. By: jgstecker on 07-28-2009 08:39:03 It seems conceivable that Milwaukee gets to the point in the next few days where they have to part with Escobar for pitching. Maybe Washburn & Halman gets it done? I like Escobar a tad better than Brignac at this point. The way I see it, our SS is either going to be a #9 hitter or a #2. If he's batting 9th, I'll take Escobar's glove over Brignac's. Escobar also scores better in the #2 hitter skills like AVG, OBP, and base-running. Brignac's value is as a lefty bat with some upside in the lower part of the order. I think we're covered there with the likes of Carp and Saunders in the near future. Jack Wilson made sense a week ago, but now... forget it. Hardy costs too much in trade value and in dollars. I wouldn't complain if he came, but it hardly seems like the best use of resources. And Poythress to AA?! That's huge. I was expecting maybe a short get-to-know-you in Everett and then see-you-next-year. |
| 18. By: Jason A. Churchill on 07-28-2009 10:06:28 Escobar only scores better in those areas in statistics, not necessarily in skills or tools. In the big leagues, he could see pitchers busting him a lot more since he doesn't have the power to hurt you much, and those avg/obp/contact numbers go right down the you know what. I think Brignac has a much better chance to be something on both sides of the game, and it will happen for him sooner than Escobar. That and the fact that it's very likely to cost less on Escobar makes me agree that Brignac makes the most sense. I wonder if there is a wildcard name out there that has yet to be reported. |
| 19. By: StandinPat on 07-28-2009 11:51:10 Morrow/Clement for Kazmir/Brignac would be a ridiculously good deal for the M's. Kazmir is the same age with similar age to Morrow, and while he costs more and has some injury questions, he is much more likely to give you something in the near future, and Brignac is so much better than Clement, from just a player perspective but also in fit, that its not even funny. If I'm the M's I'm definitely looking to sweeten the pot to get that deal done. |
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