Prospect Insider - The M's should trade Brandon League

The M's should trade Brandon League

By Jason A. Churchill

By 11-19-2011

Among the decisions the Seattle Mariners will have to make this offseason is whether or not to entertain trade offers for right-hander Brandon League. Let me rephrase that; the M's have to decide whether or not it's in their best interest to seriously look to move League this winter. Of course they should listen to trade offers, they should listen on every player on the roster, even Felix Hernandez.

With League, there are a few factors that suggest keeping him is the best move. For one, he's affordable. The M's aren't strapped for payroll flexibility to the point that League has to be traded in order to create the necessary available monies to land the impact pieces GM Jack Zduriencik and his crew need to acquire to take a large step toward contention in 2012.

League made $2.25 million in 2011 and is arbitration eligible for the final time this winter. He'll be tendered and should earn at least $4 million next season, perhaps even $4.5-5 million. For a closer, that's reasonable, but that brings up the key question: Is League a legit closer?

Overall, he was this past season, but it was his first and only season in the role, and his road splits are awful, suggesting he can close at the Safe but in a neutral or hitter's environment he struggles, thanks to below-average command and inconsistent secondary pitches.

Home
36g, 35.1 IP, 24 H, .190 BAA, HR, 0.51 BB/9, 7.9 SO/9
Road
29g, 26 IP, 32 H, .296 BAA, 2 HR, 2.07 BB/9, 4.85 SO/9

Even at his very best, League is but an average closer. He misses bats, but not at the level of a premium reliever, and rarely has the kind of control and command of a Joakim Soria or Mariano Rivera, or even the median closer in the big leagues.

League will be a free agent at the end of the season too,, at which time he will certainly be priced out of Seattle by way of the club's available payroll and young relief corps, one more reason to move League this offseason.

Sure, contending teams need closers, but they need really good ones, and League doesn't appear to qualify. Spending money -- especially north of $4 million -- on average late-inning options isn't what smart baseball teams do.

The new agreement between the owners, the league and the Major League Baseball Players Association may impact League's trade value in one direction or the other. Under the new rules, part of which will be implemented immediately, Type-A free agent relievers will not cost the signing club a first round draft pick, making them much more affordable. Still, it's often going to be more plausible to trade for a Brandon League or Huston Street than it is to sign a Matt Capps, a comparable talent, to a multi-year deal.

Where League fits
Wile League doesn't carry elite trade value by himself, he could be a valuable piece to a trade package that brings in offensive help. One of those clubs could be the Cincinnati Reds, whether it has anything to do with bringing in a hitter from the Queen City or not.

The Reds, who are transitioning left-hander Aroldis Chapman to the starting rotation, declined the option on closer Francisco Cordero who told ESPN Insider's Jim Bowden on SiriusXM Radio this past week that the Reds' best offer to date won't get him to re-sign.

This could send the Reds on the search for a replacement.

League could also fit, as a relatively inexpensive option for the ninth inning or as a setup man, in Boston, Tampa Bay, or either Los Angeles club. The San Diego Padres may be the best fit of all, as they look to shore up a relief corps that figures to lose Heath Bell and Chad Qualls to free agency after trading Mike Adams to the Texas Rangers in July.

What League is worth in trade is almost irrelevant, but he's certainly valuable enough that it's not a worthless venture to tender League a contract.

Where the M's turn in the ninth
If the Mariners trade League, they'll have to look to another arm to handle the ninth inning. Perhaps there's a free agent on the market that can help -- someone like Jonathan Broxton, who struggled mightily in '11 may be left to a low-base salary plus incentives -- or perhaps the M's simply turn it over to their young kids.

Tom Wilhelmsen was terrific in his second call-up last season, allowing just six earned runs in 23 frames while posting a 22-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

The M's may also have an option that didn't pitch in the majors last year in Stephen Pryor, the club's fifth-round pick in 2010.

Pryor started 2011 in High Desert, struggled with his command and mechanics and began June with an ERA of nearly 20. From that point on the former Tennessee Tech flame thrower was nasty in 17 2/3 inning in Adelanto and 22 2/3 innings at Double-A Jackson, yielding just six earned runs on 21 hits and 16 walks while whiffing 51 batters.

Pryor issued just seven of those bases on balls in his last 28 innings and did not issue even one in his past six games, covering 6 2/3 frames.

He's big and strong with terrific arm strength. His fastball has reached triple digits in the past, but he sits in the mid-90s with a slider that improved from fringy to average, perhaps slightly above average. He's also throwing a changeup and has improved his overall control by at least a full grade since early last season.

Can a team that expects to contend toss a rookie into the closer role and succeed? The Los Angeles Angels used Jordan Walden last season and contended until their offense failed them too many times.

Pryor hasn't touched Triple-A yet, but Walden has just 6 2/3 innings of experience at Class-AAA before last season. He wasn't perfect, but using Walden was much better for the Halos than spending more free agent money on a veteran.

Why would a team trade for League?
League, unlike Capps, Bell, Ryan Madson, Cordero and Frank Francisco, is only guaranteed a salary of about $4-4.5 million, rather than a multi-year deal that could pay those free agents that much -- more in the case of Cordero, Bell and Madson -- for two or more seasons.

And unlike Nathan, League is not coming off any kind of injury where durability is any kind of concern.

Even if more clubs see League as a setup man, the lack of a long-term financial commitment is certain to make him at least moderately attractive versus the free agent route, and it's not like the M's are going to ask for premium talent in return.

They should, however, get one solid player or a few interesting prospects.

For those that prefer to keep League because of the chance the M's make some noise in 2012 -- adding Prince Fielder or another big bag or two ... or not -- consider the fact that relievers are the most volatile commodities in the game and League has but one season as a closer under his belt.

It was just two seasons ago that league was a solid, yet unspectacular, setup man, and the year before that was a mediocre version of a late-inning arm.

League could very well regress some the first half of 2012, killing any value he may have in July, when his value in trade will already be crippled due to his pending free agency -- the acquiring club would only have him for two or three months.

I'd bet the M's include League in a package deal this winter or move him in January or February when the free agent market is dry and Street and any other trade-available setup man or closer has been dealt.

For me, what they get in return doesn't matter a whole lot. Spending $4 million or more on him next season is almost a reckless decision by the M's at this stage in their rebuilding plan.

If they find themselves in the race in June and the bullpen needs a veteran, they can go out and make a deal to land one -- there are always several available.

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Comments
The following 11 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: Gibbo on 11-19-2011 22:51:01
Yeah I agree totally now is the time to do it. Would love to see what Figgins, League and a lot of cash would get from the Reds.

Jason would that be enough to get one of their young catchers or would we need to add more?

2. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-19-2011 23:56:39
Let me ask you this, Gibbo.

Would Huston Street and Ian Stewart, plus $6 million cash get Dustin Ackley from Seattle?

3. By: Gibbo on 11-20-2011 00:24:37
Right, so they are that good. What would be a realistic get then?

4. By: docsmith on 11-20-2011 05:17:40
No....yes if they gave me half of the $6 million....but otherwise, no.

5. By: jgstecker on 11-20-2011 06:41:30
The new free agency compensation rules make it more beneficial to trade League too. Under the old rules he'd probably have been a Type A and would've brought back two picks if he repeated his 2011 numbers. Although he might not get an arbitration offer next year.

I have to think League is a better option than guys like Francisco, Nathan, Capps, and Cordero. Those guys all have their warts too, and at least League can say he never gave up his closer's job.

To get a decent prospect in return, I think the team will need to give up some kids along with League. That way the team acquiring him gets some kind of future return and not just a rental.

Cincinnati makes a ton of sense here since they have future needs at positions we have depth at. Maybe League, Campos, Saunders/Peguero, and Triunfel/Martinez for Volquez and Grandal?

6. By: Marlin Man on 11-20-2011 11:17:06
I think any team that would plan from day one of the season to have League be the closer, will NOT be a legit contender- he is NOT that level of a closer. HOWEVER, I do think he might be about the best "deadline trade bait" I have seen us carry for many years, and Z will indeed get his just reward for so doing- because there will always be a legit contender that will look around at deadline and attempt to make a silk purse out of a sows ear- because of true need and lack of options- THAT is where Brandon will bring us much more than what he is worth-

He is a set up man, plain and simple

M.M.

7. By: valencia on 11-20-2011 11:22:47
League's value is too low now to acquire much. 1. Type-A doesn't exist, which is the main reason teams had no problem trading for good closers. 2. Type-A doesn't exist, so teams can just acquire Francisco, Nathan, Capps, Cordero, etc. and not give up a prospect.

Our best bet is a mid-season deadline trade to a contender, who's looking to reinforce the bullpen before the playoffs. I think this year's playoffs really put into perspective how important bullpens are in the playoffs, so they'll be in high demand.

If anyone wants League bad enough to offer more than he's worth, I say take it. Otherwise keep him, trade him in a package or as a rental at the deadline, and hope the 2-3 C+ prospects you get can end up average. Or just take the Type-B comp pick at the end of the year and hope you find a B+ level prospect.

8. By: maqman on 11-20-2011 11:44:21
I agree League isn't worth his cost to the team next season. Wilhelmsen or Lueke should get a shot and Z has already started building his bullpen pile for spring training. As Jason indicated he can be peddled as part of a package of parts we are deeper in and could pull back something of real value to us.

9. By: Edman on 11-20-2011 17:34:58
I completely disagree about two points.

One, the idea that League not being legitimate closer closer on a contending team. That's based on nothing factual, IMO. If he can close in Seattle, he can close anywhere. Paplebon gets $15 million a year for doing basically the same job as League, minus the strikeouts. In arbitration, he'll probably get around a third of that money.

Second, the thought that M's are "rebuilding" I don't believe is accurate. That's no longer true. They are "building", with pieces like Ackley, Seager, Pineda, Smoak, Wells, Carp, etc. Part of building is to stop experimenting. Right now, League is worth what he gets in arbitration. It allows the young arms to continue to develop into rolls, rather than throw them against the wall, and see which one sticks as a closer. No team gets better by constantly changing rolls. Besides, with the new changes in the CBA, and a team not being able to get first round compensation, League's best value will come for a team seeking a closer to make the playoffs. They are less likely to worry about compensation, and that is especially improved with the addition of more wildcard teams.

I don't see League traded without a huge amount of thought, and worth in what would be coming back to Seattle. And certainly NOT in a deal to get rid of Figgins. He's a sunk cost, and it would be better for the M's to take a full loss, than to tip a scale to try to save a couple million dollars. You're paying him anyway, why not make him the utility guy. And who knows, maybe he improves his value so that he's worth more in a trade.

I don't think that the M's will trade League, unless it's a definite win deal for them. It would have to be a great package, and I doubt that Jack will approach any negotiation by putting him in a package. If I were him, I'd make him unavailable, unless you make it worth My while.

10. By: rth1986 on 11-20-2011 23:16:51
Cincinnati does match up remarkably well with the Mariners. Hopefully Jack will be talking with them a lot this winter, if not already. The Reds have one of the worst pitching staffs in the game and are pretty well stocked at C and 3B. The Mariners have pretty nice pitching depth and questions at 3B and a huge gaping hole at C.

I'm not crazy about trading League unless we get a high upside catcher or third basemen for him. Ryan Lavarnway, Devin Mesoraco and Yasmani Grandal would be the guys I'd target for League. Juan Francisco is certainly interesting, but I'm not sure he's that much better of a bet than Seager, Liddi, Martinez, or Catricala (if he's a 3B).

League isn't an elite closer, but he does seemingly have untapped potential in his split change. I have no idea how/why he doesn't strike out more batters than he does. I thought I remembered somewhere where League said he started to pitch to contact more with Seattle. Either way, the ownership seems to love League and I bet they will try to lock him up to a team-friendly deal. A 3 year/$15 million deal wouldn't be terrible for either side.

11. By: rocketdawg31 on 11-21-2011 04:39:34

Hello fellow PI people -

I'm still in Seoul, South Korea until tomorrow, but I've really shitty news to report: Mariner OF prospect Greg Halman was killed in Rotterdam Monday, stabbed to death.

His 22-year-old brother is being held as the chief suspect in the slaying.

Prayers to the Halman family. This is just lousy to hear about.

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