| By Jon Shields of Pro Ball NW |  | By 07-22-2009 |
Jon Shields of Pro Ball NW chimes in with his thoughts on the way an NL West club is handling one of the top pitching prospects in baseball.The San Diego Padres made a controversial decision Sunday by plucking top pitching prospect Mat Latos from AA San Antonio to make his big league debut against the Colorado Rockies. The question on just about everybody’s lips seems to be, "What's the rush?"
Latos was a first-day high school talent in 2006, but fell to the San Diego Padres in the 11th round because of signability and maturity concerns. They were able to ink him as a draft-and-follow for $1.25M and he’s quickly become their top pitching prospect.
He's been very good in three partial seasons but has taken it up a notch this year, posting a 1.37 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 9.1 K/9 and 6.1 K/BB in 74.1 innings between the Midwest and Texas Leagues, as well as pitching a scoreless inning in this year's Futures Game.
The minor league performance is certainly impressive, but is Latos ready for big league action?
His fastball has great downward plane and sits in the low-to-mid 90s, topping out around 98. This season he's come up with a much more reliable secondary weapon in a hard 85-87 MPH two plane slider. Latos' circle changeup is still a work in progress after a grip change this season, but it flashes as an above average pitch. Occasionally he'll throw a curveball but it has all but disappeared from his arsenal.
"He's really gathered his strengths together, eliminated a lot of the junk in his game and pitched very well," said an NL scout. "He's a fierce competitor and showed me he can deal with in-game adversity. He's had to overcome some BS in his short pro career, but he's taken a large step forward with all of that, and his slider is better this year, too. But you can't talk about Latos without talking about the plus fastball. It's one of the better fastballs in the minors."
The stuff is there to keep Major League hitters at bay -- especially if he can get some decent use out of his changeup. But in all likelihood, inexperience will keep him from maximizing his offerings. With just over 180 innings of pro experience heading into his MLB debut, Latos is still "learning how to pitch," according to the same area scout.
The lack of experience leads us to workload issues. After his Sunday start, the 21-year-old Latos has accumulated 76 1/3 innings between Class A Fort Wayne, Double-A San Antonio and now San Diego, or 20 innings more than his previous high as a professional.
Health issues have kept his innings down throughout his pro career, but injuries to his ankle and intercostals aren’t nearly as troubling as the shoulder soreness that has sidelined him from time to time, most recently at the start of this season.
An argument could be made to shut him down at this point, or at the very least put him in a minor league bullpen where his workload can be closely monitored, rather than exposing him to a major jump in innings at a higher adrenaline level versus the top competition.
This isn’t to say that the Padres won't be monitoring his workload. He was on a strict 75 pitch limit in his big league debut. GM Kevin Towers has been quoted that he doesn’t like his young pitchers to double the amount of innings they throw from year to year, and he's hinted that Latos could be shut down before the end of the season.
While Towers sets his bar at double, some argue that a workload spike of a lot less can be harmful. Sports Illustrated's Tom Verducci has found that pitchers under the age of 25 who see a 30 inning spike in innings pitched year over year tend to see their performance suffer in what he called the "Year After Effect." Baseball Prospectus’ Will Carroll expanded on this, finding that these same pitchers tend to get injured at a high rate in what he coined the "Verducci Effect." Having one year of increased workload isn't enough to doom Latos, but he figures to have another large increase in 2010 as a full-time Major Leaguer. This, paired with past shoulder ailments and a quirky, long-armed, tall-and-fall delivery could be cause for concern.
Performance, ability and workload aside, the Padres decision to start Latos' proverbial clock could potentially cause an array of difficulties down the road.
We have to understand that the Padres are a boring and uncompetitive team and that the organization is trying to give the fans a reason to come to the ballpark, but this could come back to bite them down the road.
How long until the Padres are a winning team? If Jake Peavy and Adrian Gonzalez are going to be moved -- and their escalating salaries say they will -- what do they have to build around? Their only long-term position players at the Major League level are the good but unspectacular Chase Headley and Kyle Blanks.
The starting rotation lacks depth outside of Chris Young, who also has a good chance at being moved sooner than later. The farm system isn’t completely barren, but there isn't much help on the way from the upper minors. The Padres are probably three or four years away from contending, even in the desolate NL West.
If Latos remains in the Major Leagues -- and his stuff says he'll stick in a weak Padres rotation and similarly weak division -- he’ll become expensive via arbitration following the 2012 season, and should be eligible for free agency in November 2015. If the Padres' monetary struggles continue they could have a hard time retaining Latos just as they're putting a good ball club together.
If the Padres were to allow their top prospect the latitude to work his way up the ladder and waited until late April or early May of 2010 to call him up they would be able to push arbitration and free agency back a year to 2013 and 2016, respectively. They'd then have a more polished rookie to show off to their fans, and he'd be starting his clock in a situation where he could actually help his team contend, rather than getting his feet wet at the end of a hopeless season.
With a higher premium placed on young talent in recent years we've seen more and more teams taking a step back and handling these situations with care.
The Tampa Bay Rays held uber-prospect Evan Longoria out for the first 10 games of the 2008 season to push his arbitration eligibility back to 2011 off-season. They faced a similar situation this year with David Price. Price had accrued 31 days of service time in 2008, so they left him in the minors until the 47th game of the season -- just long enough to push his arbitration eligibility to 2012.
Another recent and high profile example of a team being smart in this situation is the Baltimore Orioles’ decision to hold back Matt Wieters for almost 50 games to start the year.
Even if this is just a treat for the fans here in 2009 and they plan on suspending his clock by sending him back down next season, the team will unnecessarily burn an option on him.
The difference between the Rays burning an option on Price and the Padres burning one on Latos is that Price helped the Rays down the stretch in September and into the playoffs, whereas Latos is playing for a Padres team that is 20+ games out of the NL West race.
Most teams are smart enough not to bring top prospects up during lost seasons so you won’t often hear about a team making this blunder.
The Seattle Mariners may have pushed Felix Hernandez's arbitration and free agency eligibility back a year by keeping him in the minor leagues until late April 2006 rather than calling him up in August 2005 when they were 15.5 back in the AL West, but even this situation isn’t quite comparable to Latos'. Hernandez had dominated in AAA Tacoma all season whereas Latos was just nine starts deep at AA San Antonio. Latos could benefit from more minor league seasoning while Hernandez was knocking on the door.
There is still time for the Padres to salvage the situation, however. There isn’t a good scenario where they can send him back to the minors to temporarily stop his clock, but signing Latos to a long term deal could help erase their mistake.
If they can get Latos to agree to a deal that would buy out all of his arbitration years and one or two free agent seasons the decision to call him up would receive a lot less flack. They might be able to work out such a deal for about $20-25M and could save them money in the end.
Given all the things that Padres fans have been through recently –- the divorce of John Moore that led to a steep cut in payroll, the Trevor Hoffman situation, trade rumors surrounding supposed cornerstones Jake Peavy and Adrian Gonzalez, the losing, etc. –- it's hard to blame the organization for trying to give their fans something to cheer about.
But while Latos may indeed be ready for the show in terms of stuff, this can't possibly be a positive in terms of Latos' long-term physical health or the team's chances of building an NL West contender in the next three to five seasons.
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Comments
The following 17 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: Blowgun7 on 07-22-2009 21:35:31 Few questions Jason: 1)Does James Jones bat lefty or right? His milb stat page shows him as a righty, but you refer to him as a lefty in the midseason report? 2)Mario Martinez showing anything in Everett that suggests he has some promise still? 3)You got anything on the Carraway kid they drafted this year? He's put up some nice strikeout totals early on at Everett. 4)Is Noriega inching up towards the Top 10 of our system? |
| 2. By: Blowgun7 on 07-22-2009 21:52:42 Thanks, that's make Jones even more interesting. Looking forward to hearing some first hand impressions on those guys in Everett |
| 3. By: Jason A. Churchill on 07-22-2009 22:18:41 1. He's a lefty-lefty guy. The MILB page is wrong. 2. Some, but I'm not sold on him at third. I'll see him tomorrow, get some video and you can see for yourself. 3. I'll talk to a scout about Carraway tomorrow, if I can. 4. If he continues to show the offensive prowess he has so far, yes. Very close. |
| 4. By: Jason A. Churchill on 07-22-2009 22:19:17 I'll have some video of Jones and Martinez -- provided they both play tomorrow night -- for subscribers over the weekend. |
| 5. By: safecochatter on 07-23-2009 01:21:41 watched aquasox monday and tuesday in spokane. we'll see what jason thinks,he's the scout, and watch the video. but i didn't see anything that would lead me to believe Mario couldn't handle third. in fact Mario made a couple of beltre type charging plays that required off balance throws that were awesome. one was a bunt between the pitcher and catcher and he just came screaming in and took over. jones has more power in his swing. his lefty power swing fits safeco well. but he didn't get any tough plays in the outfield when i saw him. but hey,what's not to like with 10 hits in first 20 ab. glad there both in the m's system. |
| 6. By: Lonnie on 07-23-2009 01:33:39 Noriega was removed from the game tonight because of an injury to his hand/wrist. Lonnie |
| 7. By: greymstreet on 07-23-2009 02:15:58 Not that this is at all on-topic but I saw Martinez playing third against Tricity last Monday. He looked very sloppy out there, I think missing a catch, booting a grounder and picking up another one that would have rolled foul, resulting in the runner reaching safely. But it was just one game, so who knows... |
| 8. By: ASUBoyd on 07-23-2009 03:48:13 Jason, I was looking up Tommy Hanson on baseballcube.com and it says he was taken in the 22nd round - why did he fall so far in the 2005 draft? Signability? If so, what convinced him to sign? Thanks. |
| 9. By: Jason A. Churchill on 07-23-2009 08:45:42 Hanson has come a long way. That's really the explanation. |
| 10. By: Pumpkin on 07-23-2009 13:03:26 Jason what are your thoughts on Burgess who is in Pulaski? I know he is very raw, but have you heard anything on his tools? From looking at is stats only it seems to me that he has good speed a decent eye and okay power for a 18 year old. Maybe a potential 5 tool OF? |
| 11. By: FWBrodie on 07-23-2009 13:26:35 Jason, did you get a chance to watch Mat Gamel play at all while he was in the bigs? He seemed to fair pretty well defensively, which was a suprise considering all the terrible reports on his glove. Did he do enough to change his perception at all or is this just a case of small sample size and luck? |
| 12. By: Jason A. Churchill on 07-23-2009 14:07:11 re: Burgess I'm not a big fan. His feel for the game grades very low, despite average or better tools across the board. Not a CF, either, so he'll have to hit a ton. Gamel is a 1B or LF, or just a bad 3B in the bigs. Lacks range, has problems coming in on slow rollers... he's not a DH, but he shouldn't be playing third everyday on a contending club. You can't watch a few games of a guy defensively and get a feel for how well he can play a certain position, especially an infield spot. You can't get a good look at range on a 3B in a few games. Typically, scouts don't feel great about assessing an infielder unless they've seen him make 15 or 20 plays, which could take two weeks worth of games. How does he move to his left? To his right? Coming in? Can he make all the throws, including on the bunt/slow roller? Does he make all the routine plays at a high rate? You don't see that in a series, or even two. A Dodgers scout told me once when scouting a particular shortstop a few years ago, he went to see him in May, made a point to go back and see him in June, then in August after he'd been promoted to AA. He saw him play about 60 innings and make 20-25 plays and then felt pretty good about his assessment. Anything short of that, he said, is a best-guess scenario and at that point you are really just talking about "physical tools." |
| 13. By: littlelinny6 on 07-23-2009 19:52:48 Since Balentien has outlasted his stay in Seattle and has no future in the organization, is there any interest in him as a player if you possibly package him with someone like Clement?? Also, if Balentien gets traded (as Dave as USSM suggested), who is the 4th OF? I would argue Jerry Owens should be the 4th OF right now because he can play all 3 OF positions OK and has some speed. Plus unless Saunders will play everyday he should not be called up. Speaking of Saunders, is he ready to start in LF now or will we have to wait until 2010?? Sorry for all the questions Jason and thanks for the input. |
| 14. By: Jason A. Churchill on 07-23-2009 19:55:49 Balentien has very little to no value whatsoever. As a throw-in, he fits in a lot of places. Owens is not a good fit and they don't need the versatility, they need the best player. Redman is a better fit than Owens. Saunders is not ready to play everyday in Seattle. Maybe not until 2011, but he's going to see time in 2010, maybe even September this summer. |
| 15. By: jonbbt on 07-23-2009 23:40:00 Would Redman fair any better than Wlad? |
| 16. By: kevin_ess on 07-25-2009 23:15:24 Jon, good to see you flexing your muscles here too. You do great stuff. |
| 17. By: kevin_ess on 07-25-2009 23:24:53 Jon, good to see you flexing your muscles here too. You do great stuff. |
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