| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 12-23-2012 |
One of the more popular free agents for Seattle Mariners fans this offseason is Nick Swisher, a switch-hitting outfielder who has spent the majority of his career on good teams and has been as consistent at the plate as any player in the game.
Sunday, Swisher signed a four-year, $56 million contract with the Cleveland Indians. That's a solid contract for the team, though as ESPN Insider's Keith Law writes, the Indians aren't the team that can take advantage of that very effectively.
M's fans wanted Swisher, but for whatever reason, either Swisher didn't want Seattle or Seattle didn't want Swisher. I think it was both.
The Mariners could have afforded the $56 million for such a player, but they also would have sacrificed the No. 12 overall pick; the Indians will lose their second-round selection, since their first-round pick is in the top 10.
The way the Mariners draft -- very well, as good as any club in the game -- that pick is more valuable to them than most, so I get the reluctance, and ultimate refusal to give up that pick for a 4-win player.
The title of this piece -- Swisher vs. Morales -- is not about contending that Morales is a better player than Swisher. He's not, though it could be a lot closer in 2013 than it has been the past few years.
In 2009, Morales' last healthy season before 2012, he posted a 3.4 fWAR, despite being a first baseman. Swisher has been worth 4.1, 3.9 an 3.8 fWAR over the past three seasons. Swisher is 32, Morales is 29. Advantage Morales.
Morales may finally be 100 percent in 2013 and he could very well get back to his 2009 levels, or something relatively close to it. Swisher will be hitting in a more pedestrian lineup than he's been in since he left the Athletics after the 2007 season, and is certainly closer to leaving his peak years than anything else. To be fair, Morales will be hitting in the worst lineup he's ever been in, too, but he's may actually be gaining assistance from his new home park in comparison to his home park in Anaheim.
Morales is only under contract for one year, but in that one season he could be more valuable overall than Swisher, and I'll bet the farm he's a better offensive value.
Swisher would have been a nice addition, though we are not talking about either-or here. The club did not choose Morales over Swisher, specifically. They simply passed on making a push for Swisher, and I don't blame them. adding Swisher to the current roster does not make the Mariners a legitimate contender in 2013, therefore giving up the money and the draft pick in combination is a bigger risk and one that may not make sense for the '13 M's.
If the M's continue their trend, the No. 12 pick will turn out to be an average major-league player or better, and could be an all-star. Punting away such picks is a pretty big deal for teams that aren't big spenders and it helps them make trades for impact talent. See: Blue Jays, Toronto and Royals, Kansas City.
Just some food for thought.
swisher-vs.-morales
Comments
The following 66 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: rjfrik on 12-23-2012 13:15:12 AMEN. Morales will have a big year. Swisher, not so much. And I fully expect the pick to become a solid MLB player for years to come, that's just what JZ and Mac do in the high rounds of the draft. They KILL IT!! I'm curious to see who they target to fill our vacated OF position. Should be an interesting last couple of months in the off season. I hope they grab one of the Cuban guys. I think they could be a steal. |
| 2. By: OhioSpike on 12-23-2012 13:46:28 I am curious as to why you think the Mariners "KILL IT" when it comes to high draft picks under Z. Dustin Ackley isnt exactly killing it right now. Walker, Zunino, Hultzen and Franklin havent even made it to the bigs yet. Sure Kyle Seagar is a good player but I'm not ready to count the 12th pick as a sure fire MLB contributer. |
| 3. By: brianv on 12-23-2012 13:58:57 Would the M's also get a Compensation Round pick next round if they offer a contract to Kendrys and he turns it down? Seems like there is potential value in that as well. |
| 4. By: whereswoody on 12-23-2012 14:15:27 Ohio Spike, negative nancy over here. I agree, Morales could have a great year next year. I think we bought him very low when the angels were giving him away for 85 cents on the dollar because of their Hamilton signing. Morales and Hamilton could be similar to last years Laroach and Prince comparison. A suggestion for another arm to the rotation. Sign Ankiel to a minor league deal as a pitcher. Im half joking but still, that could be interesting. |
| 5. By: StandinPat on 12-23-2012 14:22:40 "Swisher, not so much" Based on actual evidence what so ever. Brilliant. "Walker, Zunino, Hultzen and Franklin havent even made it to the bigs yet" I know huh? If they were truly great at drafting every teenager would already be an all-star, and college players would just skip the minors all together and start batting cleanup! Seriously? "Would the M's also get a Compensation Round pick next round if they offer a contract to Kendrys and he turns it down?" Not a contract, but a 'qualifying offer' which was a $13 mil tender this past year. |
| 6. By: Panhead55 on 12-23-2012 15:03:14 Let's hope that Morales's 2013 motivates the Ms to make a qualifying offer. |
| 7. By: ripperlv on 12-23-2012 15:06:51 I understand what your saying about Swisher, and that matches JZ and his "if it makes sense” approach to his rebuilding campaign. What if the M's took a different approach like get Swisher, Bourne, and a Jackson or Lohse. Mixed with Morales, that's a decent lineup. None of the prospects are blocked. Veteran leadership is there. Yu have some real good players under control for a few years, giving you a chance to add a few more pieces. You have an outside chance at a pennant race, and probably a few more butts in the seats. With a new TV contract in the works the M's still can afford a FA in the future. Just food for thought. |
| 8. By: rotoenquire on 12-23-2012 15:32:11 I have been saying it for awhile, next year is the big F/A year. Prospects that the M's have will be in full swing by years end, if not by the begining of next year. By that time one or two final pieces could vault the M's into serious contention. Maybe the m's trade Smoak or keep him and this is his last chance either way. |
| 9. By: whereswoody on 12-23-2012 15:49:58 The F/A next year is a pretty weak class though. The top free agents include Ellsbery, Granderson, and Morse. |
| 10. By: Paul Martin on 12-23-2012 16:23:47 It's not about Morales versus Swisher. I wanted Hamilton or Swisher, but am OK with Morales instead. What upsets me is what they have done since that move. Why sign Ibanez and clog up the DH/1B spot EVEN MORE and not address your need for a legit outfielder? Are they counting on a full season from Gutierrez? Who is to say Seager or Saunders won't take steps backwards in year two (like Dustin Ackley did last year)? The whole offseason we were teased that this year we would spend more money and make anyone not named Felix Hernandez available for trade to improve our lineup and this is all they can come up with? Now are starting pitching is looking really weak too. I hope they sign Saunders and trade for a Capano or we are going to have a long year! You mention how great the team drafts, well I am sure they would find a quality player in round two and no one would miss that first round draft pick. They way this roster is shaping up, it looks like they might sell LOW on guys like Montero or Smoke and that would be a mistake. I realize the offseason is not over yet, and plenty of great moves can be made in January, but this roster makes me nervous. The fact that they have not addressed their outfield needs makes me angry, and the fact that they starting pitching looks so thin has left me very nervous about this season. |
| 11. By: Paul Martin on 12-23-2012 16:28:00 @9 you can't judge free agent classes in the future. Some players will resign with their current teams and never reach free agency, others may get hurt or not have the kind of year they had before (Like Napoli had a monster year in 2011and last year, in his walk year, wasn't all that great). Also, this year the Yankees didn't spend money, and I don't see them refusing to spend next year, especially if they don't make or are knocked out of the playoffs early. To simply say we will get someone next year is a pipe dream. |
| 12. By: StandinPat on 12-23-2012 16:54:07 "I have been saying it for awhile, next year is the big F/A year" So you're bragging about saying something that isn't actually true, over a long period of time? ok... So by your assessment, players never reach extensions with their current teams before reaching FA? They never get injured and become less valuable than they appeared before FA? |
| 13. By: rotoenquire on 12-23-2012 17:03:57 @12 No, that will be the year the M's can fill the final one or two spots they need to contened. Zunino, Franklin, Hultzen, Paxton, Capps, Walker and whomever could be on a fast track. And remember this name next year Colin Moran 3B NC. |
| 14. By: rjfrik on 12-23-2012 19:45:09 Yes the M's KILL IT in the draft with high round selections. Just look at their track record. They were kind of cornered into selecting Ackley. The best bat in college and regarded as the best bat of that draft class. The M's believed that they were going to take Strasburg with the first pick but the ballclub "Coog'd" it the last series of the year by sweeping the A's and being regulated to the second pick. It was the worst place to be, missing out on Strasburg and essentially being forced into taking the second best player at the time. The coveted Trout but thought the number 2 pick was too high to select him. If the M's would have had the fifth pick and Ackley was off the board they would have selected Trout. That's damn good scouting. Zunino is by far the best player in last years draft and to grab him at three is a steal. Walker, Franklin, Paxton, Hultzen, Seager, Romero, all high draft selections. It's a fair to say the M's FO is damn good at selecting players through the draft. With that said the more high round picks the M's have in their pocket the better the team will be long term. Yes the M's will get compensation if/when Morales leaves. |
| 15. By: Shawnuel on 12-23-2012 19:51:14 We all DO realize that there are two months left before Spring Training starts, right? LOTS of time to make more trades or FA signings. It seems premature to whine about Z not making moves this early in the off-season. |
| 16. By: Edman on 12-24-2012 02:56:35 I'm extremely confused as to why some think next year's FA class is better than this year. I looked at it and my personal observation is that it's weaker than this year, but a considerable margin. I think this year's class will be better than next year. Not much there that impresses me. |
| 17. By: Paul Martin on 12-24-2012 08:36:47 Is anyone else getting anoid and tired of the pop up advertisements on this website? |
| 18. By: ripperlv on 12-24-2012 08:58:23 I don't get any pop-ups using IE w/pop up blocker. However, on my iPad, its pop-ups from hell. |
| 19. By: cusefan115 on 12-24-2012 10:49:04 This is an interesting little nugget. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/12/teams-could-seek-loopholes-for-compensation-free-agents.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter I wonder if we might be willing to get back involved with Bourn if Atlanta is willing to do a sign and trade. |
| 20. By: maqman on 12-24-2012 11:13:13 It took $56MM for 4 years for the Indians to get the Ohio State player to come back home. The M's would have to have gone 5/$70MM or something like 4/$64MM. He isn't worth that. Read Joe Posnanski's take on the value of Pujols and Hamilton to the Angels going forward at: http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/40716262/ his view applies to Swisher as well. Personally I like what Z has done so far and I think the M's are going to surprise a lot of people next season. They probably won't contend but they will be in sight of it during the next off season. I'm hoping they check out Diaz and Alvarez, the Cuban SS and OF free agents. There could be value there. |
| 21. By: Paul Martin on 12-24-2012 11:22:55 @19 I read that article too, but what I took out of it was that it isn't just losing the draft pick, a big part is losing the $$$ allotted for that draft pick. Remember teams have a $$$ amount they are allowed to spend on the entire draft. So what teams like to do is NOT spend all the $$$ they are given for their First round pick and use that money to go OVER slot on signing lower round picks that otherwise may not sign and go back in the draft next year. If Seattle has to give up the #12 pick they also have to give up the $$$ allotted for the pick. The article speculates that Seattle was only willing to give up that extra $$$ for Hamilton and thus have no interest in signing Swisher or Bourn. |
| 22. By: Paul Martin on 12-24-2012 11:25:36 @20 I know nothing about the Cuban players and doubt you do either. Regardless, I don't see them helping the team next year. |
| 23. By: cusefan115 on 12-24-2012 11:35:19 @21 Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that if a team were to do a sign and trade for a free agent they would retain their entire draft allotment ($$ and pick-wise). @22 I have a feeling that the Cuban players will be tremendously over-priced. With the implementation of salary restrictions in various ares of baseball there are fewer areas where teams can as their heart desires. This will be especially attractive to teams like the Dodgers. |
| 24. By: rotoenquire on 12-24-2012 11:38:10 @16 It is not that next years F/A class in that much better. It is more like you don't go out and buy gas every two weeks for a car you don't have. Even though you know soon you may have one. But, not for another year. Same thing applies here. Get value and pieces now that can help cclose the gap while keeping your fan base excited. Then when your have everything in place pounce on the last couple pieces you need. This tesam would not have made a huge run this year. Next year will be the start of a spark that will turn into a barn burner in 2014 and beyond. @22 The Cuban kids are very close to ready right now the OF Alvarez could start the season in the OF with a club if not by years end. The SS needs a solid year at Dble or Trple A. But with the 2 SS we got now in the minor there is no need for him. Alvarez would be a solid get who could help now. And he doesn't. Count against your international signing cap due too the fact he is 24. |
| 25. By: ripperlv on 12-24-2012 11:51:40 @20 Realistically, I don't see that the Mariners have improved the team, yet. Ibanez really hasn't done anything in 2 years, -1.3 and 1.1 WAR. And in Baker's interview Ibanez who said he isn’t sure exactly where he’ll get the most playing time this coming season with the Mariners, but does expect to get a fair number of at-bats doing it. That's kinda scary to me, besides how many slow no field DH's do we need on one team?. With Morales, IF he can return to his 2009 production, then great pickup, otherwise it's an OK pickup. But I feel both these guys are just stop gap anyways. And we lost Vargas, who was our # 2 or 3, though he should be a #5. I now see huge holes in the rotation. So I can't see (at this point) where JZ has improved the team. However, I'm waiting (end of January) before judging if JZ has done a good job or not. |
| 26. By: rjfrik on 12-24-2012 16:47:53 If I'm JZ I'm all over the Cuban player Alvarez. We saw first hand last year how a Cuban impacted a team and led them to the playoffs. Will that happen again? Who knows. Alvarez isn't regarded in the same light as Cespedes but he is highly regarded and IMO would be an immediate upgrade over what we have in RF as of now. And while I'm at it I sign Diaz too. Why? Because it's all about acquiring assets and both of those players are assets. It would give us yet another bat to add to our collection of talented young middle infielders. And it would give us the opportunity to trade Franklin in a trade to upgrade other areas if need be. There is never anything wrong with acquiring young ready to play ball players. These guys aren't your 17 year old Latin America prospects, these are grown men who can play. Plus we have one Cuban on the team, Kendry Morales, and I think Kendry could use some other national companions. Go Get Em JZ!!! |
| 27. By: OhioSpike on 12-24-2012 17:41:04 Did you know that the last Seattle Mariner position not named Ichiro to make the All-Star team is Jose Lopez in 2006? I am not trying to be a negative nancy but you cant champion Z's selection of Zunino, Hultzen, Walker, Franklin and Paxton when they havent played a single inning in the MLB yet. @5 Again I am not expecting every player the Mariners draft to be an all star two years after the draft but Buster Posey was drafted a year ahead of Ackley and hes already won an MVP. Again, I am just saying. |
| 28. By: Mackie on 12-24-2012 20:24:30 It seems that on this forum and a few others I read, Nick Franklin's name keeps coming up just about any time the idea is mentioned of trading prospects. Why is this? It seems to me he is possibly our best position player in the minors at this point. It's impossible to tell who is going to make it in the majors or not when they haven't played in the majors yet... but why do so many appear to assume Franklin will be traded? Of all the good prospects we have, it seems like he and Walker would be the ones we would least want to trade away? Is it because people assume Franklin is not going to be a major league shortstop and may be more suited to second base, and the Mariners are currently using Ackley at second base? How about keeping Franklin long enough to see if Ackley can start hitting? Sorry if I'm being dense, and If I am, then please feel free to enlighten me on this business about "trade Franklin", because I just don't get it! LOL |
| 29. By: Mackie on 12-24-2012 20:39:16 I suppose it makes sense if you look at it like, if you want to get something good in return you may have to be willing to give up some of what is your best to the other team... But it just seems Franklin's name is the one that gets mentioned most often. |
| 30. By: baseballman on 12-24-2012 21:53:03 I don't understand the point of post 27. What are you trying to say? |
| 31. By: Jerry on 12-25-2012 07:15:38 RE #27: If you think the M's haven't done a good job in the draft, you don't know what you're talking about. I don't know how you could argue otherwise. |
| 32. By: Edman on 12-25-2012 07:28:46 rjfrik, exactly what do you know about those cuban ballplayers? Do you know anymore than you've read? One Cuban success, weighed against the numerous failures, and mediocre MLB talent like Yuni, is hardly a reason to jump at signing Cuban players. I'm all for signing talent, but not because of one Cuban player's success. |
| 33. By: maqman on 12-25-2012 09:46:24 For more input on the two Cuban players see: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20121127&content_id=40434576&c_id=mlb I never said they were as good as Cespedes or Morales or any other Cuban born player. They are special because they can be signed without the bonus restrictions placed on IFAs by the new CBA. The M's played over .500 during the last half of the last season. Since then they have shed Figgins, Olivo and Kawasaki and hopefully learned not to start Noesi and traded Ichiro, that's addition by subtraction. They got a genuine MOTO in Morales and a decent bench bat in Ibanez and a long shot possibility in Bay. One or more of Smoak, Ackley and Montero should contribute more next season and some of Paxton, Maurer, Hultzen, Zunino, Romero or Franklin could provide even more support. They have a strong bullpen that could allow them to try and convert Furbush or Wilhelmsen as starters in spring training. They gave up Vargas but get Iwakuma starting all season instead of just the last half. As is this coming season they should finish over .500 and may even win in the mid 80's and Z ain't finished yet. |
| 34. By: rjfrik on 12-25-2012 10:19:55 Edman, There are a couple of really good sites out there dedicated to the Cuban ballplayers. But it's Cuba and there really aren't a lot of people allowed into the country to scout ball players. So the data is limited to the International games they played. I have watched some video of Cuba's last International tournament this summer in Europe. Diaz looked pretty impressive and so did Alvarez. Currently there's a player in Cuba who some regard as possibly the best bat on the planet. His name is Jose Abreu and he's a 25 year old first baseman who hit .399 and hit 30 HR's in about 90 games last year. He's an absolute monster. Here is a good article on him. http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/7601600/cuba-jose-abreu-migh-best-offensive-weapon-planet In my opinion these are the types of ball payers the M's need to go get. The cream of the crop ball players in Cuba are very good and all of them are MLB ready and can step in and be good to great MLB players. Look at the last two, Champan and Cespedes, both of whom were among the best in Cuba. The M's should be all about adding Cuba's best players because those guys can play and as maqman explains they can be signed without a posting system or going into your IFA dollars. |
| 35. By: rotoenquire on 12-25-2012 12:34:17 I think it was on another thread were someone said the idea of going after Kubal was a bad idea. They said he was paid too much and one ok year does not justify the move. Kubal is making 7.5 mill that is a steal in the current market. Add to that he blasted 30 HRs last year. Granted I don't think he will be a constant 30HR guy but he can be what Swisher would be and younger and cheaper. Trade for him!! An OF of Kubal, Alvarez and platoobn of Ibanez/Bay/Saunders sign me up.. trade Guity eating some of his deal and free up a bit more cash for Lohse.. |
| 36. By: Rudolf on 12-25-2012 16:09:27 Merry Christmas, M's fans! @35: You suggested we trade Franklin and Capps for Kubel. I said that was a horrible trade. Have you looked at his career numbers? He hit 30 homers last year because he went to an extreme hitters park and swung like Bret Boone. His strikeouts soared to new heights, and while his slugging did go up, it was not proportional to the amount of whiffs he produced. Look at his home/road splits last year: .910/.757. His road slash was .244/.309/.449. He produced 1.9 WAR on the season, the second time in his career he has produced over 1 WAR in a season. Including his inflated 2012 he has averaged around 20 home runs per season over the last six years. He has a career OBP of .334. He has never scored 75 runs in a season-- terrible baserunning-- and he played on some pretty good Minnesota teams. He had one good year in Minnesota in 2009: .300/.369/.539. I think it is safe to say we aren't going to get that version of Kubel if he comes to Seattle. His career WAR total is 5.7 over 3000 AB's. I never said it was a bad idea to trade for him-- and, for all I know someone else said it was a bad idea and I'm jumping in out of turn-- I just said your trade proposal was bad. If we can affordably get Kubel to play OF for a year or two, fine. We could do much worse. To give up anything of significant value-- like Franklin!!!-- is really quite pathetic. |
| 37. By: dewey on 12-25-2012 16:25:14 I wouldnt say anything about the Mariners drafts because they have only been here 4 years.Yes Ackley hasnt panned out completley yet but time will tell also the rest that havent gotten here yet are just prospects alot of hype just like every other teams.The only diffrence Jacks job depends on some of these kids being good only time and god know how they will end up.Look at all the money spent on Cuban players its been terrible but you cant argue with Cepedes but the history of cubans and signing bonuses is down right terrible and i dont think Jack can afford another whiff like Figgins and thats what these guys cost. |
| 38. By: StandinPat on 12-25-2012 17:35:00 "No, that will be the year the M's can fill the final one or two spots they need to contened." That's great except for the fact we don't know what those two spots will be or if there will actually be any FAs that fit. "I know nothing about the Cuban players and doubt you do either. Regardless, I don't see them helping the team next year." So by your own admission you don't have the requisite knowledge to offer an opinion, yet do so anyways. "It is not that next years F/A class in that much better. It is more like you don't go out and buy gas every two weeks for a car you don't have. Even though you know soon you may have one. But, not for another year" Thats just an awful analogy. If you know you'll need gas soon, and you find a great price now, why wait just to pay more in the end? " I now see huge holes in the rotation. So I can't see (at this point) where JZ has improved the team." There's two holes, and they have time. A back end starter is easier to find than a MOTO bat, hence the Morales/Vargas swap. "Did you know that the last Seattle Mariner position not named Ichiro to make the All-Star team is Jose Lopez in 2006?" And? What on earth that does that have to do with this team? "I am not trying to be a negative nancy but you cant champion Z's selection of Zunino, Hultzen, Walker, Franklin and Paxton when they havent played a single inning in the MLB yet." Right, because prospects have no value what so ever. They can never contribute at the MLB level, every current major leaguer skipped their prospect days and just instantly started as a sure thing. "Again I am not expecting every player the Mariners draft to be an all star two years after the draft but Buster Posey was drafted a year ahead of Ackley and hes already won an MVP." Again, I am just saying." Ah, the isolated sample theory. Cause thats useful. "Again, I am just saying." yeah, but what you're saying makes no sense. "It seems that on this forum and a few others I read, Nick Franklin's name keeps coming up just about any time the idea is mentioned of trading prospects. Why is this? It seems to me he is possibly our best position player in the minors at this point." Franklin's got value and may be blocked at the MLB level. It's not that you want to trade him, you just may need to if you want to get an established major leaguer. "Kubal is making 7.5 mill that is a steal in the current market" Not really. He was a 1.9 win player last year, which would have put his 'value at $8.6 mil, plus acquisition costs(prospects) and the offensive hit he's gonna take leaving that ballpark, there are much better options out there. "he can be what Swisher would be and younger and cheaper" He's been less than half as valuable as Swisher has over the past several years. |
| 39. By: rotoenquire on 12-25-2012 22:12:00 @38 Must have hit a nerve. lol I never said I don't know anything about the Cuban players. I have watch video, read countless reports and formed my own opinion. Reason why Fraklin is mentioned is we have 2 solid young SS in the minors. Add to that Arizona is still trying to add another young SS to compete for there starting SS spot. And if your looing at add one or two pieces maybe they won't even be starters. We don't know what we will need, but to spend this year when your not ready to compete this year makes far less sense. Swisher is older who also hit in a hitters friendly park and is way more expensive. I would take another chance on Kubal and watch him work on striking out less. Again at a cheaper price. Then a player like Swisher who is getting older and headed to the downside of his career. When you have a bunch of young kids who should be headed the other direction. And my analogy was just fine staking up 200 galons of gas in your garage for a car you will buy a year later is not smart, nor is it safe. lol |
| 40. By: dewey on 12-25-2012 22:53:19 If Franklin is a true SS prospect why does he play 2nd so much? He went to Fall league and played 2b mainly and last season same thing?Merry xmas all |
| 41. By: maqman on 12-26-2012 11:02:52 StandinPat I admire your logic. Dewey When you are right you are right. The fact that they have Franklin playing 2B sort of insinuates that they don't see him as a SS in The Show. The fact that we have Ackley playing 2B and Seagar was a 2B in college, along with Franklin becoming a 2B more than likely means somebody is going to get traded or moved to another position. Ackley played OF and 1B in college so he could move if need be. Until they get somebody better they need to keep Seagar at 3B, so I guess that means they either trade Franklin or move Ackley. Or not. |
| 42. By: rjfrik on 12-26-2012 12:01:39 Ackley isn't moving off 2b. Not going to happen. Franklin played 2B in Arizona because Gregerious (sp?) was the SS there dictated by the Reds. Each team could select one player to be at one position permanently. Our player was Zunino, not Franklin. So Franklin had to be moved to 2B. He's still a SS as of now. And Seager isn't moving to 2B either. He's a 3B now. |
| 43. By: 5-Tool Poster on 12-26-2012 12:40:38 Probably more of the fact that Swisher didn't want to come to Seattle. We are scraping the bargain bin for has-been players on a roster that desperately needs talent. Some of you guys need to stop kidding yourselves. Big names don't want to come here. Three winning seasons in a decade will do that to ya. |
| 44. By: ripperlv on 12-26-2012 14:22:17 There's two holes, and they have time. A back end starter is easier to find than a MOTO bat, hence the Morales/Vargas swap. 2 holes in the rotation? A back end starter? That's all this rotation is sans Felix - back end starters. At least 3 holes. And a real #2 and #3 would be nice. A don't know how many wins that MOTO bat is going to bring, but right now (Dec 26th) I don't see this roster winning any more games than last year. And that was the point of the post. Of course there is time left, and we all expect JZ to be active, but as of today, no difference IMHO. |
| 45. By: valencia on 12-26-2012 14:38:50 Swisher didn't want to come to Seattle over Cleveland? Who picks Cleveland over Seattle? Literally no one, I don't care if they went to OSU. The #12 pick was just too much to give up for Swisher in Jack Z's eyes. Given Jack Z's track record in the 1st round of drafts, that pick could be a huge trading piece in 2-3 years that gets this team over the hump. It's trading a 10% shot at making the playoffs in the next 2 years (with 10% chances) for an extra 20% shot at making the playoffs in 3-4 years (with hopefully 50%+ chances). Which is consistent with Jack Z's plan of building naturally and going call in when it's time. As for Franklin, he's a SS and I seriously don't understand why people don't think he is one. He split 50% PT at 2B/SS in Tacoma with Carlos Triunfel, who's higher on the depth chart and has no one questioning whether he can play shortstop. He played SS almost exclusively in Jackson. Seattle doesn't decide where he plays in the AFL. Only a few scouts have said anything about him not sticking at short, but they say that about everyone and most of the time they're wrong. Arizona said Franklin was one of 3 SS they wanted (along with Profar and Simmons), and they don't say that if they don't think he can stick at SS. |
| 46. By: rjfrik on 12-26-2012 14:57:52 We will win more games then last year. This years team is much better then last years. There's no Olivo, Figgins, Ichiro in the lineup. That in itself is huge. Addition by subtraction. Plus you have Kendrys. Plus you have the fences moving in. Plus you have all the kids having another year of experience. Plus you have 16 games against the Astros. This team will be WAY better and will be .500 at a minimum. |
| 47. By: Mackie on 12-26-2012 16:21:40 @42, that explanation sounds more to me like why they would be playing Franklin at 2B in the AFL, although the guy currently playing 2B for the Mariners has been mostly unimpressive in 1,044 major-league plate appearances so far... so maybe getting Franklin a bunch of innings at 2B is not such a bad idea at all. 8-) But I'd rather see Ackley turn into the kind of hitter most people think he will and for him to stay at 2B, and for Franklin to be kept around and given the chance to play SS in Seattle at least for a bit. @41, with all due respect, I agree with #42 on Seager. I do not see them moving Seager to 2B just because he played 2B in college. He showed everyone he's a pretty good third baseman this past season, and his hitting is fine for a major league third baseman these days when one compares his numbers to others at the position. I think he is more valuable if he continues to play 3B and if they think that too, they will keep him there. @45, I believe Franklin can stick at SS too, let's hope he gets to stay around. I could see Seattle trading him if he was part of deal that might bring us back some kind of world-beater caliber hitter, but only in such a case. @46, +1. The M's may not be a great team in 2013, but I agree they will definitely be better. |
| 48. By: cusefan115 on 12-26-2012 16:50:55 I know that signing Raul was a small move and in the end it is unlikely to really hurt the team but I have to say it was disappointing to see Matt Diaz sign a minor league deal toady. In many ways, he is probably a better fit than Raul. |
| 49. By: Paul Martin on 12-26-2012 17:01:50 @48 Diaz hit .222 last year and I don't know why you think he would be better than Ibanez? He has also sent most of his career in the national league. I wasn't happy with the Ibanez signing, but I will pass on Diaz. The Yankees can have him! |
| 50. By: marinermutt on 12-26-2012 17:09:42 Ibanez is here for his leadership and being a mentor to the younger players. Anything he gives us on the field is extra. |
| 51. By: dewey on 12-26-2012 18:07:51 I like Raul 5 years ago if i was getting a guy to mentor as its been said here i would get a guy who has won a W.S myself if thats what we are trying to teach these guys how to win thats just my thoughts. If he plays LF thats a mistake as you get older you dont move better and when he was here 5 years ago he wasnt a good defender i didnt think. Be honest here how many people on this sight other then Jason have seen Franklin play 5 games at SS? I hope he can do it i saw him play some in Tacoma but at 2nd mostly. |
| 52. By: cusefan115 on 12-26-2012 18:21:48 Diaz's poor year last year can be explained by the fact he was struggling with a wrist injury. Over the course of his career he has a .860 ops vs left-handers. Plus he is a competent outfielder. |
| 53. By: rotoenquire on 12-27-2012 11:01:28 So the Red Sox have dropped there offer to Napoli, due to his hip issue. Could the M's offer a one year contract with incentives? So he can prove he is fine and get a bigger deal next yea. I think so, it would benefit both the M's and Napoli I think. |
| 54. By: maqman on 12-27-2012 11:46:01 This guy would be a nice get: Catcher Tim Federowicz, age 25, has spent parts of the past two seasons in AAA and is poised to break camp in 2013 as the Dodgers’ back-up catcher to starter A.J. Ellis. A defensive whiz, Federowicz is known for calling an excellent game while also providing good receiving skills and a strong arm (He nabbed 39% of base stealers in AAA in 2012). Probably a waste though with Zunino in the pipeline. Blake Beavan provided 11 wins as a 22-year-old in his first full season. He'll probably not ever appear on a Cy Young Award ballot but he's good enough for the #5 slot. Next year will probably be the last time we will draft as high as 12th. Don't think Boras will let Bourne sign for less than ridiculous so we might as well keep the pick. Guti is having a fine winter league. |
| 55. By: Paul Martin on 12-28-2012 11:06:21 Since we are all playing the waiting game, what is Seattle's next move? 1. Sign a free agent pitcher? 2. Sign a free agent hitter? 3. Trade for a pitcher? 4. Trade for a hitter? If so who and for what? |
| 56. By: Juan Valdez on 12-28-2012 11:16:53 I saw this on mlbtr this morning: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/12/few-free-agent-ground-ball-pitchers-remain.html No one is beating down Derek Lowe's door. Why not make him an offer for a 1-year deal? |
| 57. By: brianv on 12-28-2012 13:11:30 My guess on the next move is an "experienced" innings eater in free agency. Probably in the vain of another Kevin Millwood type for one year. Wish we could get another outfielder, but if you look at what we were running out there last year. A healthy Guti, Sanders and platoon of Ibanez/Wells/Bay is a significant upgrade although not a long-term fix for such a young club. Would be nice to see Cat, Romero (assuming position switch) or someone step up as a possible long term solution to one of the corners. |
| 58. By: Paul Martin on 12-28-2012 14:20:47 I doubt they will do it, but this is what I would do: 1. Sign Joe Saunders 2. Trade for Chris Capuano 3. Sign Bourn if you can get him cheap/reasonable, but not an over pay. |
| 59. By: sexymarinersfan on 12-28-2012 15:31:32 1.Saunders will want more years than we're willing to offer. So no deal, he blocks the kids. 2.Depends on what the Dodgers are asking for Capuano. If it's Felix, then they can keep living in retard land. If it's for Pryor or some B level prospect I might bite. 3.No deal for Bourn. This team isn't a leadoff bat away from a playoff contender. Unless, it's a short term deal. I like having the 2nd best uprotected pick in next years draft. Bring back Millwood for another year. I loved his experience for these young pitchers. We could use another vet now that Vargas is gone. |
| 60. By: DRWheelock on 12-28-2012 19:37:17 1. Capuano definitely! He is not going to cost us too much, since the Dodgers will be looking to lower payroll after what they've just splurged on over the past 7 months...and Capuano is a 'little' salary relief they don't need any longer. 2. I really like the idea of signing Millwood again, since he's cheap and will be worth a contract similar to last year! 3. We only sign Bourn "IF" Z can pull off an amazing trade for Stanton. Yes we would pay MORE than dearly for him, but THAT is what developing a Farm System is all about...1) Having top prospects that are cost effective and under club control for years (ie: what Tampa does to keep their payroll VERY low); 2) Use Top prospects to acquire the kind of franchise player that Stanton is. This guy is NOT a "Bedard" type player! Bedard is NOT the kind of player you sell the Farm on like Bavasi did that completely DESTROYED our entire farm system. BUT Stanton is the type of long-term Franchise "Griffey" type that you would do this with! Pitchers have the higher risk to trade your Farm for. Bavasi destroyed our system, and by the time he was fired our system only ranked #26 in MLB. In just 4 years Z has built our system up to one of the TOP in MLB! "If" we have to give up 2 of our top SP prospects (Walker, Hultzen, Paxton) plus others like a Smoak (or whatever Z can pull off) I say GO FOR IT and then land Bourn for leadoff. I totally have faith in Z to rebuild our Farm System, after we use it to land Stanton, and I figure it wouldn't take too long. He's already prove how he can do that! PLUS another thing is that next offseason there are so many top quality SP's hitting FA that Z could then splurge his funds on SP next offseason, or whatever other holes that may come up. With Capuano we would be just a hair over $60M ($70M+ if Bourn was added) in payroll in 2013 with this lineup: OFFENSE CF Bourn 2B Ackley DH/1B Morales RF Stanton 1B/DH Smoak LF Bay/Gutz 3B Seager C Jason/Montero/Zunino (Montero could go in Stanton deal) SS Ryan/Franklin (Franklin would probably go in the Stanton deal) ROTATION Felix Iwakuma Capuano Millwood One of Walker/Paxton/Beaven/Hultzen (2 being traded in the Stanton deal) All this with TOP defense, and TOP bullpen, THEN M fans can get pretty excited about this 2013 and beyond! I can see Stanton costing us a hefty package like (Walker, Paxton, Franklin, Wells (or Saunders) for starters...who knows how much more, but again have total faith that Z can rebuild our Farm after this trade. |
| 61. By: jellison on 12-29-2012 03:58:43 Brianv - don't forget about Thames. For what it is worth, he is projected to be among the better OF options for the Ms this year. |
| 62. By: Paul Martin on 12-29-2012 08:30:53 @59 I don't see how Saunders blocks the big 3. You need. A reliable innings eater to replace Vargas. Last time I checked we need 5 starting pitchers. If all of the big 3 make it to the big leagues, and none get traded, then we can always trade Saunders a year or two down the road. Teams are always looking for starting pitching. I think a 3 or 4 year deal gets him signed. If no Saunders or Bourn, does the team just not spend the $$$ promised and keep payroll down another year? I think Millwood is looking for more $$$ and years than we are comfortable with, otherwise he would have resigned by now. Maybe no team gives him what he wants and he comes back, but the fact that we haven't signed him yet despite his good year and our lack of SP depth is not a good sign. @60 I liked your idea, but NO WAY we get Stanton. IF he becomes available, teams like the Texas Rangers have better prospects to offer and we will be out of luck. @61 I would rather get a good look at Casper Wells than rely on Thames. I still think Wells has a chance to be an everyday player, it might be with another team though, the way we have seen it with so many other young players that fail here and succeed elsewhere. I will be real disappointed if the team doesn't increase it's payroll and just goes out with the window dressing (Ibanez and Bay). I know Jack is trying to make other moves, but if he his other moves don't work out... |
| 63. By: maqman on 12-29-2012 11:09:21 Bourn is a Boras client so he won't be cheap. I'm guessing 4/$60MM or more, plus we lose the 12th draft pick. No thanks. A trade for Capuano or signing Saunders or Chris Young for 2 years max might work. We lost Vargas but we have Iwakuma all season instead of only the last half as we did in the past season. Hey Oswalt and Moyer are still available. I'd try stretching The Bartender and Furbush out during spring training myself. Just don't retry Noesi until he throws a perfect game in Tacoma, twice. |
| 64. By: sexymarinersfan on 12-29-2012 11:11:32 I could give less than a crap about our payroll. It's not about how much your payroll is that defies you as a team willing to win, but much more so by making smart moves and decisions. If this team goes out and signs Michael Bourn, and he's getting $15 million a season for 4 years, and doesn't produce, then it isn't justified by saying, "It's ok, we spent the money to appease the fans because WE HAVE TO SPEND THIS MONEY!" No you don't. Not if you didn't think he was a good signing to begin with. I LOVE the Kendrys Morales move! Albeit to a division contender, but it really was a win for both teams. Smart decisions like these usually go under the radar, such as the John Jaso trade last offseason. I am hoping that Jack can pull off another one of those. Jaso was our best hitter last year. AND we added Montero with him. Morales was the first big move. There's plenty of time for them to make another. It takes time and patience. This lineup is about to become really solid when Mike Zunino arrives to the major leagues! |
| 65. By: sexymarinersfan on 12-29-2012 11:13:04 And I forgot to mention. Morales is also another trading chip that this team could possibly use at the trading deadline to be a piece in a package to acquiring that BIG MIDDLE OF THE ORDER bat that Jack's been looking for. |
| 66. By: rjfrik on 12-29-2012 13:31:32 Don't sleep on a Wells/Thames platoon. As I pointed out in another thread. If you stuck to a platoon with those two guys manning RF you would really like what they could produce. Both have excellent splits against opposite handed pitchers. Excellent splits!! In fact Wells is a monster against LHPs. |
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