| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 11-11-2009 |
All the rumors say Jack Zduriencik is hot after starting pitching at this stage of the offseason, with John Lackey's name the longshot, and even names such as Doug Davis, Jarrod Washburn, Randy Wolf and Rich Harden being thrown around.
I've already talked about how Harden is a great fit, but I have another idea -- Chien-Ming Wang.
The Yankees are not going to tender him a contract and while they still may try and re-sign him, Wang is going to be free to sign anywhere he wants.
He did have shoulder surgery, which can be death to velocity, but is expected to start throwing again in three weeks. This is a buy-low scenario for clubs, and the M's should at least take a look at Wang.
He was a frontline arm before the injury and is still just 29 years of age. He didn't rely on velocity anyway, which could mean that he really only needs to regain 90 percent of his velocity to be an effective pitcher again. His sinker and command make him interesting enough, and the cost should in no way be prohibitive.
The upside could be a mid-rotation innings eater for cheap. The downside? You're out a million bucks or so and Doug Fister gets half the starts.
If you don't take such a risk? Fister starts the year slated for all of those starts.
starting-pitcher-idea
Comments
The following 58 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: randallball on 11-11-2009 12:05:48 Love it. Wang is a sinker guy anyways and Safeco and the M's defense would be a much better fit for his skills than the Yankee Homer Haven and their D. I like what Fister showed last season...but I love Wang. Sorry, couldn't resist. |
| 2. By: Shawnuel on 11-11-2009 12:39:38 I can see the headlines now: "Wakamatsu Pulls Wang in the 7th". |
| 3. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-11-2009 12:41:44 Also heard the M's are in on Lyle Overbay whether Branyan signs or not. |
| 4. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-11-2009 12:42:18 Wak & Wang. |
| 5. By: littlelinny6 on 11-11-2009 13:41:43 Jason, What would the M's want with Lyle Overbay?? Is he really any better than Carp? Carp is essentially free while Overbay made over $7 million last year, I just don't get it unless the Jays pay nearly all his salary or the M's send them Carlos Silva (last part is just a joke :) |
| 6. By: StandinPat on 11-11-2009 15:02:34 Yeah, I'm not sure Overbay is any better than Carp even without the money difference. I don't see Z making this move...I hope. |
| 7. By: Lamda on 11-11-2009 15:09:49 I have no problem with Fister pitching as the 5th starter next year. I know he drives scouts and experts crazy with his results but not everything or everyone goes to formula. You don't have to run down a checklist in order to succeed at the ML level. The point is i'd rather spend the money on a legit #1/2 guy than waste money on another middle rotation guy. If we sign another starter than Wang shouldn't even be considered. If we only sign Wang and he doesn't return to form, nobody knows yet, then we wasted our opportunity to upgrade the rotation. We don't have the money to get a legit starter and sign Wang. Good idea but we just don't have the resources to do it. |
| 8. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-11-2009 15:19:15 Lamda, How is a million bucks a waste? The M's just handed Griffey -- a global waste -- $2 mil guaranteed -- but that's not going to stop them from pursuing Matsui, Delgado, Thome, Johnson, et al. Giving Wang a guaranteed million -- and I went on the super high side on that -- is no risk at all. And it doesn't prevent, nor adversely affect, the club from financially being capable of adding impact pieces. That's the reason why deals like this make so much sense. |
| 9. By: NavyChief2004 on 11-11-2009 15:32:09 the only problem is, I read somewhere that Wang may not want to sign with anyone else, as being on the Yankees helps his endorsement deals back home. Not sure how much that figures into it, but I wouldn't mind bringing him here on an incentive-laden deal. |
| 10. By: littlelinny6 on 11-11-2009 15:46:01 plus according to mlbtraderumors he won't even through a pitch until April or May, probably not helping a club until the latter part of June. However, if the M's want to pay a Designated Hugger $2 million, why not throw a few bones at Wang? |
| 11. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-11-2009 15:53:12 The Yankees may not WANT Wang back. That's the whole idea here. |
| 12. By: Bluesman on 11-11-2009 16:33:43 Jason, I completely agree with your viewpoint on Wang. There is no risk of significance for the M's in signing Wang to a minimal contract. Not having the luxury of a big market payroll means that we have to take some lowcost risks (i.e. Branyan) each year and hope that some of them work out. A healthy Wang could be a significant upgrade of our starting 5 in 2010 and even beyond. Safeco would be a great fit for him. |
| 13. By: rjfrik on 11-11-2009 16:35:32 Why not give the guy a million bucks and see if he sticks? But he shouldn't be the number one option for a SP, personally I really hope they go after Harden. Lackey would be nice but I would rather save the money. I think Wolf would be a good fit here as well. I just hope Z has something up his sleeve as far as upgrading the offense goes. We really, really need a hitter or 2! Either trade of FA, we need 2. |
| 14. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-11-2009 16:52:22 Nobody said he should be the No. 1 option. |
| 15. By: Lamda on 11-11-2009 17:07:03 Ahh...well as a 1mill option then sure - why not kick the tires. I assumed he would want 5-10mill/year to sign since that's roughly what his contract was before correct? |
| 16. By: safecochatter on 11-11-2009 18:31:58 with rumors circulating about Tigers cutting payroll. and names like jackson and granderson circulating. u'd think a cheap solid closer like Aardsma and rotation replacement like Morrow for Edwin Jackson would interest the tigers. or would that not b enough? |
| 17. By: Blowgun7 on 11-11-2009 18:38:56 You guys are overvaluing Morrow and Aardsma. Ive now seen them being used as the centerpieces of a deal for Joey Votto and Edwin Jackson. That is fantasy land thinking. |
| 18. By: StandinPat on 11-11-2009 18:52:48 "Not having the luxury of a big market payroll means that we have to take some lowcost risks" Over the past several years the M's have had a top ten payroll, money is NOT and issue. Spending big chunks of it on garbage like Silva is. |
| 19. By: FelixElRey on 11-11-2009 20:22:38 Off topic, but when is it possible that trading drafts picks could take effect? I'm sure it was mentioned back when it was a hot topic, but I just thought of it and couldn't remember. Jason, how deep into the draft would you expect picks to actually have trade value? Round 3? 5? 10? |
| 20. By: FelixElRey on 11-11-2009 20:31:03 Off topic, but when is it possible that trading drafts picks could take effect? I'm sure it was mentioned back when it was a hot topic, but I just thought of it and couldn't remember. Jason, how deep into the draft would you expect picks to actually have trade value? Round 3? 5? 10? |
| 21. By: FelixElRey on 11-11-2009 20:32:46 I was so anxious to hear an answer that I thought posting it twice would help...or I accidentally hit refresh and it reposted the question. Sorry guys! |
| 22. By: rocketdawg31 on 11-11-2009 21:12:41 I've already talked about how Harden is a great fit, but I have another idea -- Chien-Ming Wang. Jason. This might just be a brilliant idea. And one that never even remotely occurred to me, I promise ya that. You're right, there's a lot of factors to consider in this. Mainly, how healthy is Wang likely to be- and will he rebound to front-line starter status ever again. But if Wang's "all-systems go"...it ultimately pans out to medium risk/high-reward. And we really need those kind of scenarios right now. One way or another, Zduriencik will need to take some calculated gambles eventually. If we came up "triple 7s" on this one, the payoff could be enormous. Nice, nice idea. The Mariners need more than that, of course...but solidifying the middle of the rotation in a manner like that? It'd get me fervently wishing for February's acceleration again. |
| 23. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-12-2009 00:13:50 As for Overbay, he doesn't make sense. At all. He sucks. Carp is basically a cheap Overbay with no upside. |
| 24. By: maqman on 11-12-2009 09:33:46 Wang wrong! If the Yanks don't want him back when he wants to be back then his prospective value doesn't equal his cost. I prefer Joel Pinero as a sleeper Ms pickup; he's available if the Cards don't lock him up fast. |
| 25. By: maqman on 11-12-2009 09:41:27 Doug Davis scares me a bit; he is an innings eater but will be age 35 and is surely on a downhill slope. If the D'Backs don't want him why should we? Hopefully it is not because GMZ knew him back in the day. Griffey should be his only nostalgic signing. |
| 26. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-12-2009 09:53:15 No. 24 -- wake up, dude, you aren't making sense. If the Yankees don't want him it's because he doesn't have the value to THEM they prefer... maybe they have better options. Perhaps they are tossing Hughes and Joba back into the rotation to go with CC, Pettitte and Burnett. Maybe they just can't wait out Wang's availability. But that has ZERO to do with what he might be able to offer other clubs. ZERO. Prospective value doesn't equal his cost? You can't even say that since you have no idea what that cost would be. And Pineiro is no "sleeper" pick, man. He's one of the top 20 free agents in baseball, according to most, and is looking for 10 million a year --- which means he probably gets at least 3/4 of that... talk about not worth his prospective value. Davis sucks. |
| 27. By: StandinPat on 11-12-2009 14:42:15 Not only is Pineiro not a sleeper, but pitchers who have been awful since 2004, but then suddenly have a career year at age 31, while posting career low K rates, but career high groundball rates(both by a large margin) in their walk year are usually a good bet to get a contract that someone(Not Pineiro) will really regret down the road. |
| 28. By: littlelinny6 on 11-12-2009 14:51:49 Jason, Along with other sort of off the wall ideas, what about David Dejesus for LF?? Apparently Dayton Moore thinks he sucks (which he doesn't) and is shopping him. Given the fact that we gave the Royals Yuni, do you think it is worth kicking the tires on? He is left-handed, he's been between 2.7 and 3.8 WAR the last four years. He is only going to cost $10.7 million for these next two years, I think it is worth a go. He is an above-average defender and can hit at league average making him an above-average player. What would it take to get him?? It is not that I am giving up on Saunders, but if you could possible get a potential 3 WAR LF on the cheap it is worth a thought. Any thoughts?? |
| 29. By: studentofthegame on 11-12-2009 14:54:09 Jason, How serious of a player do you think Seattle is for Lackey? I mean, this is a big fish! Put him behind Felix and that makes for another great year in leading the AL ERA club. Wang seems like a great candidate to shake off his bad streak and start anew. |
| 30. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-12-2009 15:33:06 Not a DeJesus fan in this scenario, He's NOT a significant upgrade in left field -- more than just marginal over a Saunders-Hall platoon, but certainly not significant. I would not make such a move and block Saunders for DeJesus. If the M's are contending in July and Saunders-Hall isn't getting it done, then maybe DeJesus makes some sense. BTW, Moore doesn't think DeJesus sucks -- he picked up his option and the only way he trades him is if Josh Fields is someone they believe can play left everyday -- or if they are bowled over by an offer. DeJesus is on the decline, too, so I'd rather take the chance that Saunders turns into what DeJesus has been the past three or four years than spending that kind of money -- and trade cost -- on DeJesus himself. That's NOT cheap. re: Lackey More serious than I originally thought, but in the end I don't see it happening. But the market for Lackey is very small; I don't see any way he gets more than Burnett got a year ago, which could keep the M's in the race financially. You still have to convince the player to come -- if Seattle offered 4/60, for example, and LAA offered 4/57, I'd imagine he stays in LA. I don't see Seattle going more than four years on any starter not named Felix Hernandez. |
| 31. By: rjfrik on 11-12-2009 16:28:16 Yeah I got the same intel as you jason, from what I've read Moore likes DeJesus. So much in fact, that he started a guerilla marketing campaign to get DeJesus a gold glove. LOL. according to Neyer. We just need to be patient with Saunders. He will be good just wait it out. Last year he was a neophyte and coming off surgery. Give him a year and you will like what you see. Adam Lind lite |
| 32. By: mykillmagnum on 11-12-2009 16:57:14 Jason, What are your thoughts on dontrelle willis? Is he done or is there still something there? I know he has his issues and a pretty hefty contract. But it seems to me detroit is trying to dump players, could something get done with silva and other players for dontrelle willis and other players? Or is it a waste go after him, even if it included dumping silva? |
| 33. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-12-2009 17:19:59 Saunders is more of an athlete -- Lind is moving to first base. Dontrelle Willis is done and a lot of people saw this coming from a mile away -- Dave Cameron was on. The arm angle doesn't help -- tough to sustain velo and command from that slot and staying on top of anything is nearly impossible, so when the velo goes, so goes the pitcher. Believe it or not, Willis might be more worthless than Silva, but if the money differential helps you, you make the move. In this case, Willis has just one year left for 10 mil and Silva has three. There's no chance the Tigers make such a trade. |
| 34. By: mykillmagnum on 11-12-2009 17:46:21 Thanks jason, I wasn't too sure on willis's contract and how many years he had left. I figured he was a dud, I just thought I would ask with u bringing up wang in this article. Thanks. |
| 35. By: Summertime on 11-12-2009 18:18:28 Jason, A Detroit fire sale seems imminent. What do you think of trying to get Granderson for left and Jackson for the rotation. Granderson is due $23.75M over the next three years, which is pretty steep so he may net be worth it with Saunders and Ackley in the not too distant future. Jackson may be coming into his own although the high BB/K ratio is not great. Rumors are the Dodgers are trying to get him for Sherrill, but this may be a good time to sell high on Aardsma and see if we can sign Putz back for cheap if he is somewhat healthy. What do you think it would take, and would it be worthwhile? |
| 36. By: Fireballer55 on 11-12-2009 23:41:42 Hey jason, Reports say we might be in for Bronson Arroyo. What about a deal where we take on his salary and we get Brandon Phillips on the cheap end to eat Bronson's deal? We could use him at second and shift Lopez to 3rd? I have read that some teams might want Phillips to play short? Can he still do that anymore? Thanks! |
| 37. By: Lonnie on 11-13-2009 00:17:52 Ok, my turn to log in with a possibility. I just read that the Pirates are willing to deal Ryan Doumit. His experience behind the plate, in the outfield, and a bit at firstbase makes him intriguing IMHO. Lonnie |
| 38. By: Blowgun7 on 11-13-2009 00:18:50 Haha, we aren't getting Brandon Phillips just for taking Bronson Arroyo. You people are nuts. We're not getting great players for the garbage deals you guys are proposing. |
| 39. By: Fireballer55 on 11-13-2009 02:13:02 Blowgun- I didn't say we'd get him for free, did I? I said on the cheap end, like a pair of prospect instead of four. Before saying I'm nuts, read thing carefully. |
| 40. By: FWBrodie on 11-13-2009 03:16:55 Arroyo and Phillips' salaries would be quite a bit to take on together. That Doumit idea is interesting, but I'd expect that a catcher with his bat is going to cost a ton in a trade. |
| 41. By: rjfrik on 11-13-2009 04:04:08 They are getting rid of Doumit because of this stud catcher they acquired in a trade last year. Jeff Clement. LOL |
| 42. By: jgstecker on 11-13-2009 05:40:56 Doumit makes a little sense as a DH who can grab 150 ABs at C. That would allow the team to essentially use Griffey to give Adam Moore a rest. I think there are better options for DH though. I'm not sure what Pittsburgh would ask for, but they'd be selling low after Doumit's 2009 numbers. Could be that they're not too excited about paying him if he can't catch regularly and may not rebound offensively. |
| 43. By: Rudolf on 11-13-2009 08:40:18 Jason, I often hear fans of other teams mention their prospects en masse and give the impression they're valuable trade pieces to be taken seriously. Red Sox fans mention Kalish, Westermoreland, Hagadone, Reddick and Kelly. Mets fans mention Martinez, Tejada, Neise, Holt and Kunz. Yankees fans hype Jackson, Montero, Romine and McCallister. Is this the equivalent of M's fans hyping Ramirez, Pineida, Liddi, Robles, James Jones and Dunigan? Or are these organizations full of superior prospects? What would be our equivalent? Thanks! |
| 44. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-13-2009 10:37:00 Doumit isn't a catcher. He'd have to DH or play first 75% of the time or more. So if you get Doumit, you aren't getting Johnson/Thome/Delgado or another DH upgrade. |
| 45. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-13-2009 10:50:18 Rudolf, Let me quick-hit these... Kalish is an interest prospect, as is Reddick. Reddick a better athlete, little more upside, but Kalish can hit. Westmoreland has a high ceiling, but needs to stay healthy. Hagadone is a 3rd starter or George Sherrill. Kelly can't hit, but he's got frontline starter raw stuff on the hill. F-Mart is a good prospect, not an elite one. Complete player, though, just needs polish and he's David DeJesus with power. Tejada is a big-league defender at SS with a below-average bat... could develop at the plate some. Neise I haven't seen but the Mets tell me he's a back-end starter at least. Holt is similar, but with better raw stuff. Kunz is a reliever. Austin Jackson took a step back in '09. May not be able to stay in center, and though he has plus bat speed, his pop hasn't jumped yet. Montero is an elite hitting prospect. Won't catch -- PERIOD. Romine is a decent catching prospect. Should hit enough, defense coming along. McCallister is a scout's dream. Prototype body, good velo... but the breaking stuff isn't there and he hasn't shown a great feel for a change, or pitching in general. Gil Meche, circa 2002. Those groups you mentioned are better than the M's group. If you put Triunfel, Moore and Saunders in there, it's comparable. Montero is the best bat, Kelly the best arm, and Martinez the best chance to be a 55+ across the board. Triunfel might have the second best chance to be an above-average bat behind Montero. |
| 46. By: Blowgun7 on 11-13-2009 11:02:05 Getting Brandon Phillips on the cheap because of Arroyo means what? On the cheap to me means, secondary prospects (guys not named Triunfel, Moore, Ackley, Saunders). If you are including the guys I mentioned above, how is that on the cheap? |
| 47. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-13-2009 11:24:32 Arroryo-Phillips, even for "cheap" isn't a GREAT deal. That eats up a lot of the salary needed to improve the offense. You'd need Cincy to hand in some cash, and they aren't likely to do that. |
| 48. By: Rudolf on 11-13-2009 13:18:17 Thanks, Jason. Are the top seven BoSox prospects (the above mentioned bodies,(+ Bard, and whomever), better than our group of Truinfel, Ackley, Poythress, Saunders, Moore, Ramirez, Tuiasosopo, (or whomever makes the top seven for the M's)? It seems to me that the M's prospects get a lot less hype than other franchise's prospects. Is this East Coast bias? Are our fans more refined, (less braggadocio), than other fan bases? Or are prospects simply not worth mentioning often? Thanks! |
| 49. By: Rudolf on 11-13-2009 13:19:27 my last sentence should have an "our" between "are" and "prospects". |
| 50. By: FatBat on 11-13-2009 13:35:51 Even though I like the idea of a Felix/Lackey 1/2, I think the M's might be more able to work out a trade for a starter, seems more likely. Arroyo's numbers would look pretty good at the safe. But my quiestion to all of you would be...What about Atlanta offering D. Lowe and Javier Vauzguez? Lowe has a big contract and would I'm sure cost a lot less in a trade. D. Lowe has alway's been ment to come back home!!! Right? or not? Also I just bought a boom Box that play's one song.... "Nick Johnson signs with seattle" Great song. |
| 51. By: FatBat on 11-13-2009 13:37:24 I think Lady Gaga sings it. |
| 52. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-13-2009 14:18:09 Rudolf, I think the Sox have two, possibly three, high-ceiling guys that Seattle can't match. Kelly is a risk, especially since he insists he's a shortstop and hitter, rather than a pitcher, but he, Westmoreland, even Lars Anderson if he rebounds from a poor statistical season, are a better trip than Ackley, Saunders and Triunfel. As for going seven deep, I'd rather have the Sox better seven, because that 1)include Iglesias, their shortstop prospect, and has starting pitching in it. Seattle's best starting pitching prospects - Ramirez, Cortes, Hill, are No. 2 or 3 starters with similar risk factors as the Sox's (and yes, Sox's is grammatically correct, so stop freaking emailing me and telling me it's not) Kelly. And lest we forget about Ray Feuntes. |
| 53. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-13-2009 14:27:50 FatBat, Arroyo sucks, is declining, and makes tons of money. Only way he makes any sense is if he's nearly FREE, both in terms of trade bait and salary. He's due $13 million including the buyout, isn't missing bats at all and his ERA, despite Safeco, might balloon in the AL. His BABIP hasn't changed much, despite the Reds defense getting light years better in 09. The M's have much, much better secondary options. Like Harden. Or even Bedard. Or Wolf, Sheets... Arroyo isn't one of the better ones. |
| 54. By: FatBat on 11-13-2009 15:36:46 I'll give you that. Arroyo does pitch to contact. You think D. Lowe would survive in the AL? Also thinking about DH possabilities, do you think the M's have match up with maybe the Rockies for Hawpe? My point is not to have him play LF so much as that he could, but as a Left handed Bat for DH is a option. I think we have learned that even NL Lefty's can still hit at Safeco. Even a line of .270 25 90 as a DH would be big. Ichiro Gut N. Johnson Hawpe Branyan Poor mans middle of the line-up but what are the alternatives? Lopez in the number 3 hole again? ouch. and just to add if I do my math, with all the contracts off the books am I right that its around the 50mil mark? Thats a lot of money with no real free agents. |
| 55. By: acqb1424 on 11-13-2009 15:39:09 Jason, Who is the mostly likely FA pitching acquistion for the M's? Do you think they are most likely to come away with Harden? Any chance that they resign Bedard? |
| 56. By: marinerseric on 11-13-2009 15:44:12 Ouch just got an update by Mariners email saying they signed jack wilson to a two year deal. The question to you was it worth it? At least in my opinion we should have never given him one. |
| 57. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-13-2009 15:57:54 As long as they don't let Wilson's presence prevent them from upgrading the position before his deal is up. FatBat, Lowe is owed 3/45... no way. Would he survive? Sure. But that's far too much coin and there's no chance ATL pays enough of it, if any. Hawpe sucks defensively. Bad. Forget him. |
| 58. By: Missthosepilots on 11-13-2009 16:03:57 Jason, I live in Colorado have to wonder why anyone would touch either Hawpe or Atkins. Of course, I wonder that about a LOT of veterans that somehow get picked up. I hope that Ackley can progress like Seth Smith has in the last year. Speaking of which, did you see his first home run today? |
Haven't created a Prospect Insider account yet? Sign up!
| Copyright 2010 Prospect Insider | Created by AQ Central Prospect Insider is optimized for Mozilla Firefox |