|By Adam H. Wong||By 02-26-2013|
|1. By: maqman on 02-26-2013 11:06:16|
So far so good, other than Noesi, the guys are getting off to a good start. I get it's only spring training but this spring training is more encouraging than last year. It's good to see some real competition for slots too. I'm guessing there will be a surprise or two on the big club when the fat lady sings.
|2. By: jbltzfk on 02-26-2013 11:19:39|
I was hoping Bonderman would be ready; not yet, anyway. I think we have four slots firm, Felix, Iwakuma, Joe Saunders, and probably Erasmo. It's up to Beavan to outdo Garland (if he's recovered) or if not, Hultzen, etc., etc.
I would be shocked, shocked, if Noesi made the roster. . . .
|3. By: short on 02-26-2013 11:24:28|
Not to be too big a party pooper but it's really important to ignore spring stats. Last year the M's were tied for 14th in spring home runs at 28, and were sixth in ISO at .177. Frankly I'm not rooting for Bay or Ibanez to hit home runs because they are most likely washed up. Even if Bay has returned to something like his old form, he's a lousy defender. Wells is probably the better overall baseball player right now. Bay hitting a bunch of spring dingers means we probably end up with him instead of Wells and most likely a worse baseball team.
|4. By: Edman on 02-26-2013 12:13:44|
Wow short, good thing you're not a GM. You'd rather jump to conclusion than let things play out. You've already made decisions about Bay and Ibanez, while essentially giving a free pass to Wells. How thoughtful of you.
|5. By: Mackie on 02-26-2013 12:20:34|
Sure, we may all have hunches about certain players, and management may have hunches about them as well. But it seems one reason for spring training is to make certain on those hunches... to see how everyone does, and who are the best bets for getting the regular season off to a good start. We can all write people off before spring training really gets underway, but if the Mariners take that approach, how do they know what they have? Bay and Ibanez haven't been in the M's spring training camp recently. I'm willing to see what they can do.
|6. By: jbltzfk on 02-26-2013 12:27:50|
I'm willing to see what they can do better than what they did last year. I've always liked Raul, but his heroics last year in the playoffs would have never got into the stands anywhere but at NY. Just long outs here, and elsewhere. I know nothing about Bay except his stats, which were horrible. If there was a reason other than Over The Hill, fine. . . .
|7. By: ripperlv on 02-26-2013 12:50:51|
I wasn't the happiest camper when we signed Ibanez, but I think it's important to have a power pinch hitter late in games, one that the opposing team will not want to face, and I think Ibanez is it. I like Wells and think he needs an opportunity, he may be odd man out, we'll see. Given all that, I don't think Wells or Ibanez or Bay has all that much value (I'm thinking role player), but I give the edge to Wells for defense and age. Wells is the only one that is eligible to be traded and I'm not sure what he would bring? He wouldn't survive the waiver wire, so he has at least that much value. It's a wierd situation in that Wells is the only one who really qualifies as a 4th outfielder. I still think we have 5 DH's, Morse, Ibanez, Bay, Morales, and Montero. But then again, I'm not the expert.
I like the buzz that Brandon Maurer is creating!
|8. By: short on 02-26-2013 14:14:30|
I'm not jumping to any conclusions about Ibanez. The data on him is clear: he's old, can't defend and is seriously declining as a hitter. If his role is late-innings pinch-hitter and veterany mascot, well that's ok I guess. But I'd rather have a better player there. Like, say, Jaso.
With Bay I suppose there's hope he's "back" to where he was in 2009. But he's getting old as well at 34 and is in the decline phase of his career, at best. With three years of mediocre-awful stats the likelihood he's washed up has to be considered. He's never been a good defender, so his hitting has to be back to very nearly his career average levels to make him worthwhile as an outfielder. (And we don't need another DH.) If you go off of spring stats to make that judgment it's a mistake. Hopefully the coaches will evaluate him based on his actual skills, but I doubt it. Just can't root for the guy in ST right now.
|9. By: Paul Martin on 02-26-2013 14:18:54|
@7 I totally agree with you on all points. As far as trading Wells, it would be for next to nothing especially if the designate him for assignment first (a la Kelly and Carp).
As a 4th outfielder/defensive replacement, Wells gives you so much more than Bay, who really hasn't done much since 2008 or 2009. We will let Bay and Wells compete it out this spring, but I think we know in the end what will happen...
|10. By: Edman on 02-26-2013 14:36:21|
Really Paul? Do you know, or are you hoping?
|11. By: Paul Martin on 02-26-2013 14:52:53|
Edman, let's make this fun. As long is no one gets hurt, at the end of spring, if it comes down to either keeping Wells or keeping Bay, I say the team keeps Wells.
I am so sure of it I will offer to make you a bet:
If Seattle keeps Wells over Bay, you are not allowed to post a single comment on this website for a month. For an entire month you do not exist on Prospectinsider.com. If Seattle cuts or trades Wells so they can keep Bay, then I will pay $100 to the charity of your choice, in your name.
Now if we keep Bay only because of an injury to another player, then all bets are off...
|12. By: short on 02-26-2013 15:33:29|
I'm actually pretty sure Bay will hit well enough in spring to make the team. That's the problem with making spring training a competition. The list of bad hitters that have had great springs is long.
The M's just don't seem to like Wells for some reason. Maybe he's the biggest jerk in the world. Maybe he blasts Maiden on the clubhouse radio all the time. Or talks about his WoW character all day. For whatever reason they keep treating him like he's not worth much. I expect Wells to go in a deal that's only slightly better for the M's than the Carp deal. Other teams no doubt look at how the M's use Wells and that will impact his value. I predict Bay will hit about .240/.300/.390 for the M's in limited time and play awful defense.
|13. By: Edman on 02-26-2013 15:37:31|
No deal. I will continue to let the decision come down as it will. I don't believe one way or the other. It will come down to who has the most value to Seattle. Your beliefs are not that of Jack and Eric. If Bay shows that he can be as valuable as he was before signing with the Mets, and Wells doesn't show anything more than value as a defensive outfielder, then it will be up to the Mariners to choose the path they feel is more valuable.
Odds are against Bay, but he deserves the opportunity to prove that those odds were wrong.
Your personal hatred for Bay is very evident. I'm willing to let him beat the odds before he's kicked to the curb.
|14. By: greentunic on 02-26-2013 15:40:04|
Ah do it! Conpare the payouts! For a good cause too.
|15. By: greentunic on 02-26-2013 15:41:02|
Ah do it! Conpare the payouts! For a good cause too.
|16. By: Edman on 02-26-2013 15:52:18|
short, you're making stuff up. There has never been any lack of love for Wells, other than in the heads of fans looking for excuses for not elevating him to a level they expect for him.
I like Wells, but he has to perform to keep his job, just like any fringe player. For Wells, he has to show a more consistent approach at the plate. It's not rocket science. That will be done by observation, not Spring Training results. Wells in his two years in Seattle has shown no consistancy with the bat. That's what will have more to do with his fate, than assuming Wedge and company don't like him. If that was the case, they'd have traded him in the off-season.
For fringe players, to some extent, Spring Training results matter, but it doesn't have to be about statistics.
|17. By: FatBat on 02-26-2013 15:55:34|
Well's got plenty of opportunities last year. There is nothing special there, move along people move along. You don't have to leave but you can't stay here. If bay doesn't make it oh well. But a healthy bay in my opinion is worth more than watching wells swing at nat's floating over home plate. But again it's just a fifth outfielder. My guess is we will see more of Ibanez than either bay or well's. and I'm fine with that. I know my wife is! Rauuul. Just sounds cool. He may not be a good outfielder but he's our not so good outfielder. 3rd times a charm? Going to be a fun year.
|18. By: greentunic on 02-26-2013 16:32:14|
Ah do it! Conpare the payouts! For a good cause too.
|19. By: Paul Martin on 02-26-2013 16:36:40|
Edman, I have no "personal hatred" towards Bay, I just strongly prefer Wells for this team given its current roster makeup. Why???
1. Wells can play all 3 outfield positions, and play them well. A nice trait for a bench guy.
2. I am still concerned about Gutierrez and his history of injuries. If Guti goes down, the last thing we need is a roster of Saunders and a bunch of 1B/DH types playing the outfield. Speaking of which...
3. Morse and Ibanez are being counted on to play the outfield for us this year, and they don't play defense well. I would love the option of putting Wells in there late in games as a defensive replacement. As a Bench player, Bay would be just as bad as Morse or Ibanez.
4. Gutierrez is an injury risk, and one could argue that Morse and Ibanez are injury risks if they are asked to play a lot of outfield. Bay is just as much or MORE of an injury risk than anyone on this roster. How many injury risk type older players do you want on the roster?
5. I am excited about the team and the new season, but in all reality we will be around .500 and not a playoff team. As a result the team should be looking to develop some young players that might be able to contribute in the future when they are a contender. Wells hasn't proved anything at the plate, but he does have potential. This is a good year to find out if he is going to fulfill that potential or not. Just as I want to keep Smoak around this year I also have hope for Wells. Lets find out what he can do.
6. As the centerpiece of the Doug Fister trade, Jack is going to give Wells every chance possible to succeed. A reserve role on the team in 2013 with the possibility of more if he can hit is very likely.
7. Don't forget the Saunders lesson from last year. He was in the same situation as Wells las year, the team showed patience in him, and it paid off big! I am not saying Wells will be as good, but he has talent and potential, and could really help this team.
8. We have enough older players under one year contracts. If we had never signed Ibanez (which I was never crazy about) then there would be a place on the roster for Bay, but do you really want both? I realize all these guys on one year contracts could re sign (especially Morse if he hits and stays healthy) but the team has to develop some young players at some point. Why not give Wells another year to find out if he can be part of the future?
I actually hope Bay does well, is healthy, and can salvage his once promising career. In all likelihood I just don't see him on THIS ROSTER this year. He is most likely auditioning for his next team once he gets cut.
|20. By: Paul Martin on 02-26-2013 16:54:32|
Also, isn't it nice to have as one of our few debates, who will be our 4th/5th outfielder? In all reality it may not matter which one they keep.
|21. By: Edman on 02-26-2013 17:35:14|
I'm pretty sure that if one of the outfielder's is injured, that they'll bring someone up from Tacoma, or trade for another outfielder. Wells is not the key that keeps the walls from crumbling.
Since you mention the "Saunder's lesson from last year", they didn't just hand him a job in Spring Training. He worked his butt off in the off-season to make himself a more complete player. If Wells has done the same, then let him earn his way onto the roster.
The "Wells being the primary piece from the Fister trade" ship has sailed. Jack owes him no additional grace in an effort to salvage that trade. That's over and done with. I think he's past trying to justify that trade. Jack's job does not hinge on the Fister trade.
|22. By: greentunic on 02-26-2013 18:24:04|
Woa! Sorry guys! Did that post on my phone, looks like it god duplicated and posted 3 times. Not intentional.
|23. By: rjfrik on 02-26-2013 20:51:16|
Good to see Smoak raking the ball this spring training. Looks like he's carried over his momentum from the fall.
He needs to be platooned. He should start against every LHP we face this year, hands down.
AVG .267 OPS .891 ISO .260 wRC+ 150
That line is a line of a premier player and that is exactly what Wells did last year against LHP.
Bay and Ibanez are old. Can they reclaim some magic? Yes, and they should be given the chance to. But in reality both haven't had productive seasons in four years and the odds of them doing it in this stage of their careers is close to nil. We really should only be keeping one of them and strictly as a mentor/pinch hitter/1st base coach.
|24. By: short on 02-26-2013 22:09:21|
Edman, you're putting words in my mouth. I never said Wells didn't have flaws, just that between Wells and Bay, Wells is the better player. Over the last three years Wells has outhit Bay and he can play all three outfield positions. Short of an injury to Wells there isn't much that can happen in spring training that will change that analysis.
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