|By Alex Carson||By 02-25-2013|
|1. By: Paul Martin on 02-25-2013 10:07:52|
Alex, thanks for the update and insight! I am interested to see how Bonderman does this spring. I think our rotation is thin, but if one or two of these non roster invites pitch well, we could be OK. Is the weather warming up yet?
|2. By: asusag on 02-25-2013 10:34:49|
Bonderman isn't a southpaw.
|3. By: Alex Carson on 02-25-2013 10:48:03|
Oh, hell. Good catch, asusag. I wish I could figure out why I wrote that -- but I haven't a clue. I haven't even had a drink today.
|4. By: maqman on 02-25-2013 10:59:48|
Well there's your answer, find a bartender - not the bullpen one! So far I'm impressed by the power output, an average of over 6 runs a game. SSS I know but it is still better than 1 or 2 a game. Wouldn't it be a hoot if we outscored the Texicans and the Anaheimians after spending less than $5MM on free agent sluggers (Bay and Raul).
|5. By: Marlin Man on 02-25-2013 12:20:21|
Now don't go getting your hopes up, nor daashed, as far as that goes, about anything you see/read about Spring Training- so says that other site (the one named like a ship), who says Spring traning is a waste??????????????
man now I have heard everything
|6. By: Edman on 02-25-2013 12:53:10|
Considering the crew on the other site named for a ship, it wouldn't be the first time they sailed off-course.
|7. By: Paul Martin on 02-25-2013 13:17:38|
Is a team going to sign Kyle Lohse to a multi year deal after the draft? Even with Boras as his agent, I am surprised he is still out there. Is he just not THAT GOOD or a draft picks really that valuable under the new rules? How will this affect players in the future as they enter free. Agency with a 1st round draft pick attached to them? It is fun seeing a Boras client not get the $$$. I would have thought a contender like Texas or the Angels would have signed him by now...
|8. By: Shawnuel on 02-25-2013 13:36:22|
#5 & 6, Yeah.....never mind that the writer of that article gives many examples and much data suggesting that what he says could have some merit. We know better.
|9. By: Lonnie on 02-25-2013 13:38:56|
It's not just the value of the pick, the signing team would also lose the slot money for the pick from their pool of funds.
|10. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-25-2013 14:08:40|
Spring Training sis far from meaningless. The statistics are meaningless when assessed alone, but it does mean something.
|11. By: Edman on 02-25-2013 14:27:23|
Exactly, Jason. The USSM salivates for stats. That's their primary objective, to prove that statistics are the most important part of baseball.
Shawnuel, if you wish to praise at the idol of DC, so be it. Dave and others there are notorious for presenting lots of "stats" that support their opinions, but not so much at looking at those that don't. They are very good at imposing the problem with statistics. They select the data that best supports their arguments, and ignore those examples that don't. That is a fail in the statistical analysis world. The purpose of "good" statistics is to eliminate the "human" elements from ALL equations, and not being selective about the ones you choose.
|12. By: Alex Carson on 02-25-2013 15:12:37|
So-and-so hitting a home run in Arizona, in a small park, off a minor league pitcher may appear meaningless on paper. But, did the hitter have sound mechanics? Was he aided by wind or did he make real, solid contact?
Sure, the counting stats may not be everything, but spring training is a great place for players to tweak and try things. If you see real results that could lead to sustainable change (the Michael Saunders example is great) and you even reference those things, I don't know how you can sit there and say it's meaningless. It means something.
|13. By: Edman on 02-25-2013 15:18:32|
Alex, that's especially true about pitchers. They can put up horrible stats, while accomplishing their goal. If a pitcher is trying to develop a certain pitch that wasn't effective in past seasons, they'll probably throw more of those pitches, as they try to develop it into an out pitch. Spring Training is where the coaches probably work the hardest, trying to develop players. That kind of work will never show up in stats.
|14. By: Marlin Man on 02-25-2013 16:11:42|
Edman #11 post is right on.
They live for stats and ONLY "meaningful ststa", that no one makes the club based upon what they do and ONLY do at Spring training.
well, I disagree with thaT bs. I recall (years ago) watching a kid at Spring training ball, that was not supposed to make the club, and hell, he didn't even have any previous years stats to make a decision, nor the age/experience to bet "gut feelings" upon, Hell the kid was still a teenager- he went on to hit the hell out of the ball, all Spring, and would not "allow" the management to send him down, where the KID should be.
Remember Ken "the Kid"?????
THe other site is fun to read, but pure stats is absolute bullshit
|15. By: Edman on 02-25-2013 19:08:39|
Personally, I will NEVER forgive Dave Cameron for his childish behavior toward Griffey, up until the point that he retired. Yes, I know Dave is all about the stats, but Griffey deserved more respect than Dave gave him. It was like watching a child pounding his toy on the floor screaming, "I don't want this toy, I want another !!!"
We all knew it was time for Griffey to go, but to act the way Dave did is both unprofessional and irresponsible.
|16. By: Shawnuel on 02-25-2013 21:02:51|
#10. I believe that is largely what Cameron is saying.
While I don't believe that Spring Training stats are worthless, I do think managers (Wedge being a good example) put too much stock in them.
#12, Yes, exactly. I believe that also supports most of what Cameron writes in the post.
#13, ironically, I believe you are supporting Cameron's theory with these comments. He is not devaluing Spring training as much as the value of using ST stats to predict how a player will fare during the season. The examples of Iwakuma and Jaso are spot on, IMO. I'm not sure if I agree that Wedge went solely by the stats to dole out playing time but he clearly missed the boat on those two players as well as Olivo. I believe evaluating PT simply by using ST stats is short sighted. As you mentioned "They can put up horrible stats, while accomplishing their goal." So....if Wedge did see something in Jaso and Iwakuma, outside their stats, that suggested they weren't solid contributors AS well as NOT seeing anything outside of their results that suggested Noesi, Beavan and Olivo were likely to be pretty horrible, I think that suggests he may be a poor evaluator of talent.
#11. Nice leap, Edman. Stating "that article gives many examples and much data suggesting that what he says could have SOME merit" CLEARLY betrays my idolatry of Dave
|17. By: Edman on 02-26-2013 00:03:38|
Who doesn't do that? Someone not like Dave, who looks at data without prejudice. Dave fails because he doesn't remove his personal bias as a fan, from his work with statistics.
Dave's comments about what and why Wedge did the things he did are what he believes happened, and not a description of what actually happened. If you believe his version, that's up to you. Jaso had just come off a poor season as a hitter. He had an even worse Spring Training. So, what was Wedge suppose to do? Assume that his offensive lapses in 2011 were just a blip? It's easy to sit in the cheap seats after the fact and play "I told you so" game. If Wedge had ignored his Spring Training results, and plugged him into the lineup, considering his 2011 season, there would have been many that roasted Wedge for that, especially if he didn't respond.
Dave is full of himself, to the point of trying to sound like an expert for on-field evaluations. He's not. He's a guy who plays with math on a computer. If Wedge misused the math used in WAR, he might have a point. But, Dave acts as if it's all in the math, or not in the math.
I'm not defending Wedge, but the way Dave tries to make it sound, is as if all his opinions were as clear as day, when they were made. Those that can, do. Those who can't, criticize those that do.
|18. By: Wishhiker on 02-26-2013 04:07:30|
#1-thin rotation...Felix, Saunders, Iwakuma, Ramirez, Beaven, Noesi, Paxton, Maurer, Hultzen, Walker, Garland, Bonderman...12 pitchers legitimately vying for spots is thin? I'm used to 7 or 8 so I'm confused on how anyone could think there's not enough competition. I thought there was no need for Saunders because of all the depth of options, so what do I know? Just that I'd like us to actually allow our young pitchers to pitch where it makes a difference, in MLB. It isn't looking so far like none of them are ready, quite the contrary. We'll see how it progresses, but it looks like there may be more than one sent down simply because there isn't room. That and worrying about 2020.
On spring stats I think it can be more indicative of a team than a player. Not do much W/L, but if their hitting or pitching well or poorly Some years the guys hitting are mostly going to MiL teams, but that hasn't been the case so far this year. Seeing this many hitting this well early is nice but they're also scoring early which tends to be less A ballers pitching and more MLB caliber. Yeah, it's early but it's nice to see.
|19. By: Marlin Man on 02-26-2013 07:53:05|
I read the other site and their state centered world, because I love baseball and read evrything I can about it.
Bottom line is that when I read it, I say to myself, "have these guys EVER agreed/liked a decision made by the management of this team"? I think Dave believes they should check with him before they make decisions.
But, what the hell. Read the man with a grain of salt.
|20. By: Alex Carson on 02-26-2013 08:24:54|
@Marlin Man - Yes, they have. I've gone to almost all of the USSM/LL events and they were extremely supportive of Jack during his first two years.
They also have written plenty of supportive things of the current regime. I think what you're seeing now is that they're not totally happy with how the thinking within the FO has shifted. That's totally their opinion.
Long answer to say: Yes, they have liked and agreed with several things the current FO has done.
|21. By: gwangung on 02-26-2013 09:13:13|
" If you believe his version, that's up to you. Jaso had just come off a poor season as a hitter. He had an even worse Spring Training. So, what was Wedge suppose to do? Assume that his offensive lapses in 2011 were just a blip?"
Actually, if the GM and manager were working together, they would have indeed said, "Yes, 2011 seemed to be a blip, based on an abnormally low BABIP. Watch what he does and see if that's still the case or not."
|22. By: Edman on 02-26-2013 10:28:57|
gwangung, based on Jaso's brief experience, there was nothing to indicate which player he would be. That's just fan "justification" to hate the Jaso trade and treatment in Seattle.
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