Prospect Insider - Spring Training Preview: Game 11

Spring Training Preview: Game 11

By Brendan Gawlowski

By 03-04-2013

Another day, another batch of runs, and now the suddenly Murderin’ Mariners have won nine in a row. The youngsters are playing well, the team can’t seem to go a day without launching a moonshot (Kendrys Morales did the honors yesterday), and it appears that fans are starting to get excited about the Mariners this year. That enthusiasm dovetails nicely with the schedule, as today, the M’s appear on Root Sports for the first time this spring. Game time is set for 12:05.

While I’m excited to see the team for the first time this year, I’m also a little concerned that the spate of runs the M’s have scored is beginning to fuel unrealistic expectations for the season. We know better than to put any weight in Spring Training data, but baseball fans are suckers for new numbers, and many need a fix after the long offseason. Thus, we’re going to hear a lot from (some) fans and (some) media members about how well the Mariners are swinging their bats in the coming weeks, and how that might continue into April.

With that in mind, I thought it might be useful to remind everyone that a strong showing in Spring Training has little bearing on what happens once the games start to count. To illustrate my point, here’s a list of the Cactus League winners over the last five years, with their regular season records in parentheses.

2012: Oakland - 15-7 (94-68)
2011: Kansas City- 20-10 (71-91)
2010: Cleveland - 19-9 (69-93)
2009: LA Angels - 26-8 (97-65)
2008: Oakland - 18-8 (75-86)

Add it all up, and the above group is a grand total of three games above .500. There isn’t really any predictive value there. Similarly, the list of the teams who paced the Cactus League in runs again demonstrates that a strong spring performance doesn’t necessarily carry over into the regular season:

2012: San Diego – 201 (651, 10th in the NL)
2011: Kansas City – 220 (730, 6th in the AL)
2010: Kansas City – 204 (676, 10th in the AL)
2009: LA Angels – 260 (883, 2nd in the AL)
2008: Arizona – 200 (720, 10th in the NL)

Break up the Royals, eh?

I think most plugged in fans know that it’s unwise to place any emphasis on spring training stats: the games don’t count, players are looking to hone techniques not produce results, the competition level varies wildly from game to game (and inning to inning), etc. There’s just too much noise for these numbers to be meaningful and it’s important to remember that, even when it’s the Mariners who are playing really well.

This is not to say that there isn’t a lot to like about what’s happening in Peoria. Danny Hultzen is throwing strikes again. Most of the team is healthy and in good shape. Hector Noesi will probably not make the rotation. Enjoy these things. Just do so responsibly.

Rockies Lineup

Eric Young 8
Reid Brignac 4
Jordan Pacheco 2
Michael Cuddyer 3
Nolan Arenado 5
Tyler Colvin 9
DJ LeMahieu 6
Henry Wrigley DH
Corey Dickerson 7

Mariners Lineup

Franklin Gutierrez 8
Kyle Seager 5
Raul Ibanez DH
Justin Smoak 3
Casper Wells 9
Eric Thames 7
Kelly Shoppach 2
Robert Andino 4
Carlos Triunfel 6

Pitching matchup

Jon Garland and Juan Nicasio will start on the bump. Nicasio is the guy who suffered a freak/scary broken neck after Ian Desmond drilled him in the face with a line drive back in 2011. Amazingly, he was back in time for the start of the 2012 season, and I’ll admit that he’s been a favorite of mine ever since.

Meanwhile, Garland is battling with Jeremy Bonderman, Blake Beavan, Noesi, and perhaps a few others for the final spot in the Mariner rotation. As Alex mentioned yesterday with regards to Joe Saunders, it’ll be interesting to see if Garland can settle into more of a rhythm today, given that he knows he’ll be pitching multiple frames. It’s tough to compact a day’s work into one inning and perhaps Garland will mentally benefit from the longer assignment.

Taijuan Walker (!), Tom Wilhelmsen, Stephen Pryor, Lucas Luetge, and Carter Capps are scheduled to follow Garland in relief. Danny Hultzen was going to make an appearance, but he's been sidelined by a mild strain in his hip flexor.

Wednesday’s pitchers

The Mariners have a day off on Tuesday. Wednesday afternoon’s tilt pits Blake Beavan against Milwaukee’s Michael Fiers.

spring-training-preview:-game-11

Comments
The following 6 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: maqman on 03-04-2013 11:21:51
Winning in spring training does not preclude winning in the regular season. The best part of this spring training to me is the depth available at so many positions, the rotation, bullpen, DH/1B/LF C are pretty well covered and even 2B, 3B and SS have multiple candidates.

2. By: FatBat on 03-04-2013 11:37:46
Yeah I do like the cast the Mariners brought in this spring. From bay garland bonderman to kameron loe. You add in morales and morse you add vets like ibanez shoppach. It's fun to see these guys stepping up. It's just spring but what I take from it is this, guy's playing well are guys having fun and there is nothing wrong walking into 2013 season with a little swagger. Something in short supply the last umm several years? Hope it's not lame to use a personal day so I can watch a spring training game?

3. By: cpuglisi on 03-04-2013 12:49:25
even though i like the idea of garland making the rotation followed by beaven. I would really like to see one of the young pitchers really challenge for the 5th spot. Make Eric wedge decision tougher.

4. By: Bugeater on 03-04-2013 15:32:31
I love reading the blogs. Love to disagree, love to agree, but I am really, really tired of being told that spring training doesn't count. No kidding. Its spring time and even though its wrist slashing weather here, is it so wrong to get excited. Why not get excited? Why not dream of pennant races? Why not dream of 35 Mike Morse bombs? Would you feel better if we scrapping together 3-4 hits a game and losing 8-1 everyday. I think Dave Cameron is much worse at pissing in a bowl of cheerios, but there is nothing wrong with optimism. I love talking myself into why we are going to challenge for the West. Its what keeps me coming back every year. Hope.

5. By: Rescami on 03-04-2013 19:27:30
Jung said "Neurosis is always the result of hiding true pain and most often the neurosis is worse than the pain it was designed to mask." As M's fans we've conditioned ourselves to be perpetually cynical to digest more easily, the inevitable disappointment of another lost year, another long winter. It's time to shed our collective neurosis and face a simple fact. Jack knows what he's doing. Yes, I know he's made mistakes, but the organization is bursting at the seams with talent. Eric Wedge comes off like a cheerleader sometimes, but what he said about having the best 60 guys in baseball is being proved out daily. Keep telling yourself it's only spring (followed by it's only the first month etc.), it doesn't matter. Spring, Summer or Fall talent wins and we are stocked.

6. By: rightwingrick on 03-05-2013 20:40:27
If nothing else, this Spring Training run suggests that the addition of power in the middle of the M's lineup is having the impact everyone had hoped. Whether that impact will last past the Spring is another question, or whether it will carry over to Safeco is yet another question. But with the home/away offensive splits the M's had last year, plus the fences coming in, plus the addition of some thump in the middle of the lineup, there's legitimate reason to think the M's are going to be 6-9 games better in 2013.

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