| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 02-08-2013 |
With just four days left until pitchers and catchers report to spring training for the Seattle Mariners, we continue to wonder about the 40-man roster.
Why?
Well, even though the club DFA'd Shawn Kelley Thursday to create space for catcher Kelly Shoppach, the signing of Joe Saunders, which is not yet official, will ultimately force another roster move.
It's difficult to believe that if the club has to designate another player for assignment that it won't come from the following group:
Yoervis Medina, RHP
Mike Carp, 1B
Alex Liddi, 1B/3B
Carlos Peguero, RF
If there are concerns about Chance Ruffin long term, he could be a candidate, too, and of course a trade of Carp, Justin Smoak, Eric Thames, Casper Wells or Hector Noesi is also possible.
With Saunders in the fold, the M's may be thought to be out of the Rick Porcello chase. That may not necessarily be true, however. Keep an eye on that situation, and remember the name Jon Garland. The club scouted him this week and I'm told he looked decent to pretty good, depending on who you ask.
Surprise Seattle?
In crosschecking my work on the MLB Preview portion of this year's handbook this week, I get the sense that rival club's pro scouts and front offices kinda like the M's this year.
Not to win the west or make the postseason, but as a club that could surprise some people and perhaps win more games than most expect.
So I started asking that question Thursday night -- how many wins, assuming the typical and average injury impact, considering the roster, Safeco adjustments, development of younger players and the losses of Vargas and Jaso?
Here is what they said:
"I'd say 80-85 wins."
"I'll go 75 or thereabouts, because I don't see their pitching staff top to bottom doing what they did a year ago."
"Like any surprise team they'll some luck. If they get some luck, they could win 88."
"As long as they don't suffer key injuries they are talented enough to stay in the race into July. They'll have to get out of the blocks fast to do so. I think 87 or 88 wins is about right. If they are under .500 again without circumstances that explain it all, I'd be really surprised."
spring-training-countdown:-4-days
Comments
The following 43 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: DKulich44 on 02-08-2013 07:42:59 That last quote sounds good. I'll take that as a major step forward this year. If they get some luck, who knows. Good stuff, Jason, thanks. |
| 2. By: DRWheelock on 02-08-2013 07:48:55 With the Kelley DFA, and now the Saunders signing, it tells me there is something in the works via trade. Kelley is too good to just let walk in my mind. Capuano or Porcello?! I strongly feel that the HUGE Felix contract, and the 1 yr deal with Saunders will truly light a fire under ALL prospects (SP and Offense) this year! This Felix extension coming 1 week prior to ST is going to be all the Hype in ST and the "potential" money out there these youngsters can reach out for "if" they demonstrate their "true" potential. Here's hoping for that SPARK and FIRE that is lit now under each and everyone of our prospects, including the improved performances on the guys that we thought were going to produce at their potential in 2012 but didn't (ie: Montero, Smoak, Ackley). |
| 3. By: CactusFan on 02-08-2013 08:01:04 I hope we get to see Smoak turn it around this year, and I think he will. Casper Wells is still interesting and would be cool to have him get some playing time (any chance ? ) Mike Carp needs a chance to produce somewhere and there doesn't seem to be room here. I don't get the interest the Mariners have in Peguero, looks like another version of Wladimir Balentien to me. Any chance a Carp, Peguero, Thames, Noesi package returns anything the Mariners need ? |
| 4. By: Edman on 02-08-2013 08:04:16 Jack will certainly try to trade Kelley, but he's not going to bring back much, and he's not a big enough piece to package in a significant deal. Probably be a C type prospect n return. |
| 5. By: rightwingrick on 02-08-2013 08:08:55 I'm thinking LHP Chris Capuano may still be on the radar, too. Maybe Kelley and Noesi for Capuano, or Kelly and Wells. LA has an injury-plagued outfield, so Wells would make a nice backup. |
| 6. By: Bookbook on 02-08-2013 08:12:02 Capuano or Porcello probably puts the team into .500+ territory. Absent them (or an upgrade in OF), I think we're just short. (Young players can always leap forward, but that's not a betting proposition) |
| 7. By: Mackie on 02-08-2013 08:47:54 "I'll go 75 or thereabouts, because I don't see their pitching staff top to bottom doing what they did a year ago." First, a disclaimer: whoever said that knows a heck of a lot more about what's going on than I know. But I'll offer an opinion anyway. I think if Felix is healthy all year and pitches well, if Saunders is at least league-average, and if Iwakuma pitches a full season, it makes for a decent first 3/5 of a rotation. I like the odds that Saunders will be comparable to Vargas. If the M's get a full season out of Iwakuma I think those three things should be enough to make the rotation better than last year. I like the odds of it working that way. And even if they don't add another SP to the mix I think the rotation will be fine. Erasmo Ramirez and Blake Beavan have shown they have the skills to be capable back-of-the-rotation guys. For example, even if Seattle starts the year with Ramirez as #4 and Beavan as #5 it's better than last year as long as those two young guys continue to develop. And as for the bullpen, doesn't it look pretty much the same as last year at this point? Pitching is looking like an area of strength. Count me as one who thinks that if Beavan continues to develop, he can throw 180-200 innings a season and do at least a league-average job. I'm high on him being able to continue increasing his innings-pitched per season and to refine his skills to where he can be a good 3-4 guy, and for him to possibly have a break-out year in 2013. Same with Ramirez. I think if both of them earn jobs out of spring training and if they can excel during the first half of this season, it gives the kids in AAA more time to develop there... and it could give us a pretty significant amount of ammo at the trading deadline. Who knows, Ramirez or Beavan could be replaced by one of the Big Four in August if not sooner. We'll find out soon enough how much pitching depth we really have, but I like what I'm seeing. So how many wins? I think Vargas and Jaso were worth a couple wins apiece, but I think Saunders and Morales will make up for that. I think there will be a couple more added for Morse and about 5-6 more due to the maturation of young players. Add another one of two for a stronger bench, and I come up with 83-85 wins. Make a significant trade or two, during or after the season, and maybe some good free agents will take notice next winter. A team on the rise, and one that appears willing to spend some money? I think more FAs will start considering the M's more seriously as long as the team continues to improve. However one chooses to look at things for the M's future, I don't see how it can't include some real "positives". |
| 8. By: maqman on 02-08-2013 09:31:25 DFAing Kelley will probably end up a trade for a role player at best and an A level prospect at worst, plus they save nearly $1MM. They could do the same thing with Oliver Perez for the same reasons. |
| 9. By: Paul Martin on 02-08-2013 10:24:22 I am very excited about the new season. I think we should play around .500 ball, and if we are competitive while the young guys continue to develop happens, the season will be a success. We might actually have a respectable lineup and the mix of young and old players should make it interesting. I am still psyched about the Felix extension. Any other moves that Jack makes at this point is just GRAVY! |
| 10. By: Docmilo on 02-08-2013 10:27:20 Mackie, I'm with you. That quote is the one that is debatable. So, going forward based on last season: Felix is Felix Iwakuma > Millwood Saunders = Vargas Erasmo > Noesi Beavan 2013 > Beavan 2012 (He was better in the 2nd half after his Tacoma stint .860 OPS against 1st half and .760 OPS against 2nd half) Add to that the roster changes: Morse replaces Ichiro. Morales replaces Figgins. Ibanez replaces Olivo. Guti replaces Robinson/Peguero/Carp. Andino replaces Muni. This team is heads and shoulders better right now than opening day 2012. This team is heads and shoulders better than the team that played .520 ball in the 2nd half. This team is going to suprise a lot of people. |
| 11. By: Edman on 02-08-2013 10:34:07 We've moved on from Upton and Stanton, to Capuano and Porcello. Because people on the internet have opined about both, doesn't mean they are on Jack's radar. As a good GM, it's his duty to investigate all possibilities. But, it doesn't mean that there is anything on the horizon. That's just people trying to turn wishful thinking into reality. Kelley may indeed be traded, perhaps with someone else, but it doesn't mean that Jack shares your view on who that should be. Jack address his need for an innings eater starter in Saunders. IMO, it would be foolish to ignore pitchers in your own system. Nothing has indicated that Jack sees a need for another starter. |
| 12. By: littlelinny6 on 02-08-2013 10:35:06 Blake Beavan has no business being near a ML rotation. People need to stop grouping the 22 yr old Ramirez with Beavan. Both demonstrate good control of the strike zone but Ramirez has a >2x K/9 rate and a 10% lower contact percentage in limited ML work. I'm not saying Ramirez will be a stud but grouping him with Beavan, a guy who game 150 IP of replacement level starts last year is not a good baseline. Personally I hope they grab another vet starter, and possibly put Beavan at the 6th starter/swing man. |
| 13. By: Paul Martin on 02-08-2013 10:43:35 @12 I disagree. You are looking at a 24 year old, former first round draft pick. He is big (6'7") and has the make up to be a decent MLB innings eater. Heck, he gave you 152 innings las year in his first year alone. Beaven at the back end of the rotation is fine. |
| 14. By: rotoenquire on 02-08-2013 10:46:55 Jason.. Can u add an ignor button so we can not see some peoples comments? Lol It almost laughable how people put out their comments as if to talk down to people. This is a site to comment and speculate about whatever we all want too. And that will not stop because some think its obvious or that is just wishful thinking.. we are Ms fans all we got is wishful thinking till we become elite.. deal.. |
| 15. By: littlelinny6 on 02-08-2013 10:56:32 Eating innings is useless if the quality of those innings are terrible. Secondly, I'm not sure what being big has to do with anything. In general, you want a SP to be able to avoid contact and get GB or other weak contact to be sucessful. Beavan can't do either of those and has not demonstrated that he can even in the minors. Ramriez throws much harder than Beavan too. Beavan was a former 1st rounder because he used to throw hard but now throws a 90 mph fastball up in the zone most of the time. If the M's start Beavan in the rotation it will be because they desperately don't want to promote any of the big arms too early in the minors and could not find a bargain bin FA pick up. Beavan's had nearly 250 IP in the majors and been worth about 1 WAR, equivalent to what Erasmo provided in 50 IP just last year. Unless Beavan starts throwing 93-95 mph, misses bats, or gets groundballs he is a replacement level starter. |
| 16. By: Shawnuel on 02-08-2013 10:59:29 #12 I agree. I think when hitters see Beavan enough times, they'll start teeing of on his average speed meatballs. Good control is a mixed blessing when you can't miss many bats. |
| 17. By: AdamSt on 02-08-2013 11:33:27 While I'd rather people predict the Mariners for a win total in the 80s than the 60s, I think this shows more about how poor the people you asked are at projecting other teams than how good the Mariners might be. The off-season is basically a push -- trading pitching and defense (bad C >> bad LF) for offense. Ibanez, Bay, Andino aren't going to significantly upgrade the team. Saunders replaces Millwood. This looks like a ~75-win team unless several of Smoak, Ackley, Montero, Bay, Hultzen, and Ramirez make big jumps. "I think 87 or 88 wins is about right. If they are under .500 again without circumstances that explain it all, I'd be really surprised." This statement just sets the team up for failure. Essentially it says the Mariners have caught up to the A's over the off-season. How do you justify that? |
| 18. By: didycel on 02-08-2013 11:59:31 Littlelinney, "Eating innings is useless if the quality of those innings are terrible."--The underlying assumption with the innings eater label is that a guy is not going to last very long in games if the quality of his innings are below average. That a guy can get >150 innings is a testament to quality pitching. Beavan wasn't great, but he wasn't horrible either. He's acceptable right now, with no improvements, as a #5 guy who can give you a decent start ie: 6+ innings every five days without blowing the game open every time out. He gives you options and makes it so that you don't have to rush the prospects. However, he also still has a lot of potential, which brings me to your next comment. "I'm not sure what being big has to do with anything"--Being big is useful for projecting young pitchers. A big young guy has a chance to add velocity, is likely to be durable enough to give you >30 starts without wearing out, and is closer to the plate when he delivers, adding more downward plane and perceived velocity. You are right that size is not the end-all-be-all, but it is a widely accepted as a sign of potential. In other words, it's not a good idea to give up on a guy of Beavan's stature too early. Beavan is coming into his age-24 season, just finishing his first full go-around in the big leagues. I don't think he's a done deal. "you want a SP to be able to avoid contact and get GB or other weak contact to be successful." --True, but again, Beavan is not finished product. He already shows a decent understanding of how to pitch allowing him to induce weak contact already. He showed >6 k/9 with <2BB/9 as a 22y/o in AAA two years ago. I've heard he's working on a better offspeed pitch or two so that his fastball (sits low 90s, touches 95)can play up better. If so, there's some strikeout potential that's untapped to go with elite command and control. He only needs to get his K/9 up a couple ticks to be a really good starter, and there's reason to think he might do it. Ultimately, it's performance vs potential with young players. You are banging the drum for more performance. You're typecasting him based on numbers he's generated as a very young pitcher, ahead of the age-arc, I believe. Others are saying, let's see if he can tap into that potential before we write him off. A guy goes in the first round for many more reasons than having a 95 mph fastball. There's a lot to Beavan in other areas that suggest he's a guy you might want to hang onto. |
| 19. By: thirdbase22 on 02-08-2013 12:20:46 Forget Capuano and Porcello -- we don't need them. It's time for Danny H. Predict -- 89 wins. 6 guys with 20+ homeruns: (a couple of those with 30) Morse Moralles Seeger Saunders Smoak Montero. |
| 20. By: Paul Martin on 02-08-2013 12:37:26 @18 thank you, I couldn't have said it any better!!! Beaven is not our biggest problem. He is at least a place holder until some of the others are ready to step in. In the meantime, lets try to further develop him into something more or a future trade chip. |
| 21. By: MarinerCoug on 02-08-2013 12:38:30 " It's time for Danny H." You mean the guy who couldn't throw strikes in AAA? "Forget Capuano and Porcello" So, if the Dodgers or Tigers are willing to give either of those two up for players that won't be missed on this year's club and aren't critical to the future, they shouldn't even consider it? OK... |
| 22. By: Paul Martin on 02-08-2013 12:42:18 @19 I love your enthusiasm, buy Hultzen got roughed up in AAA last year, what makes you believe he is ready RIGHT NOW? Hultzen will probably become a solid #3 or #4 starter at some point, but I think he needs at least a couple months in AAA, maybe more. I like the optimism though! |
| 23. By: Edman on 02-08-2013 12:50:56 littlelinny, it's people like you who said Fister didn't deserve a place in an MLB rotation. How well did that work out? I don't know what Beavan is, or isn't, but it's reasonably certain that the Rangers didn't draft him just because he had a 97 MPH fastball. You can believe what you want. Evidently, you're in the "chicks dig the fastball" crowd. I've seen many of those in my time. Just as I've see many of the "He's got great stuff" folks over the years. Pitching isn't always about stuff, it's about knowing how to use the tools you have to get outs, be it by flyball, groundball or strikeout. Let's see him in camp, before making bold statements, eh? |
| 24. By: dewey on 02-08-2013 12:51:42 Im guessing 77 wins and Danny H didnt throw strikes in 2A either look at those walks . The higher he goes the better the hitters become and understand the strike zone better. I hope they let him learn in 3A instead of rush him l;ike the did Ackley its easy to say now but most guys need time in tne minors. I read there farm directors quotes at the fam fest he said he thinks Zunino has a ways to go im guessing the farm director sees the players more then anyone else and Gwynn was a ex ML player and scout so i would listen to him. |
| 25. By: chrisisasavage on 02-08-2013 13:05:39 It's good to hear that thes scouts like us. I'm trying to be optimistic. If you just go by statistical projections, it's hard to see anything more than 75 wins, but there's several factors in the Mariners favor that haven't been favorable in recent past. We now have enough quality depth in the high minors that we shouldn't need to run out replacement level players if a regulars go down, except maybe in the rotation. When it comes down to choosing to DFA guys like Carp or Liddi and the most expendable guys on our 40 man are probably above replacement level, it's a good thing. Our payroll has opened up, and we have enough quality trading chips to bring in the guys we need. Time to win some games! With the right kind of eyes and some luck, I can definately see an 88 win team. |
| 26. By: chrisisasavage on 02-08-2013 13:08:08 If I was forced to guess for betting reasons, I'd say 77 wins though. |
| 27. By: ripperlv on 02-08-2013 13:43:45 littlelinny I'm with you on Beavan. I wish our rotation was such that Beavan was in AAA as insurance for an injury. BTW, Beavan was drafted as a power pitcher with a 96 mph fastball out of high school. From MiLB "Beavan is a very confident young man who knows all eyes are on him. He didn’t do anything to disappoint in his senior season. He was virtually unhittable all year with a plus fastball and slider coming from a big, athletic frame." I'm not saying that Beavan can't become a decent starter, like a right-handed Vargas, but he's not there yet. He has lost velocity since high school. With an xFIP of 4.79 in 41 starts, that's not real impressive. 2.9 is excellent and 5.00 is awful. If you want to go ERA he was 3.66 @ Safeco and 5.11 everywhere else. Beavan should not be in the rotation in my opinion. But like Vargas and soon to be Saunders, Safeco can hide these guys, so Beavan has a chance to be the #5, even though Saunders should be the #5 in a quality rotation. |
| 28. By: rjfrik on 02-08-2013 13:53:05 We'll eclipse 80 wins this year. This is a .500 club or better. JZ has done a good job constructing the club. Much better then last years ball club. |
| 29. By: StandinPat on 02-08-2013 14:26:54 @13 As a placeholder, sure, but Beaven isn't the type of pitcher you want at the back of a quality rotation. @18"That a guy can get >150 innings is a testament to quality pitching" Or a lack of other options, did you watch the 2012 Mariners? "He's acceptable right now, with no improvements, as a #5 guy" He's marginally better than a replacement player, why are we advocating being slightly better than passable at any position? "A big young guy has a chance to add velocity" Except that his has decreased "adding more downward plane and perceived velocity" Yet he's a flyball pitcher who can't strike anyone out "He showed >6 k/9 with <2BB/9 as a 22y/o in AAA two years ago" Minor league stats from two years ago? really? "his fastball (sits low 90s, touches 95)" His average Fastball is just under 91, don't think I've ever seen a 95 from him. "You're typecasting him based on numbers he's generated as a very young pitcher" Or trying to be realistic about their projections. @19"It's time for Danny H" There's zero evidence of that @23"littlelinny, it's people like you who said Fister didn't deserve a place in an MLB rotation" That's complete conjecture on your part. You are just pulling crappy arguments out of your ass at this point. "Pitching isn't always about stuff, it's about knowing how to use the tools you have to get outs" Far fewer pitchers succeed with poor stuff than those with good stuff. This isn't a very sound argument at all. "Let's see him in camp, before making bold statements, eh?" You said the complete opposite of players like Sanders last year at this time. A bit contradictory, eh? I don't understand why wanting an upgrade over a mediocre player is a bad thing. I also don't understand why realizing that certain players are better for depth purposes than they are for an everyday role is a bad thing. Beaven is a big strong kid, capable of throwing a lot of innings and not walking many. He unfortunately is a flyball pitcher who doesn't miss enough bats. What he isn't is a guy that has a role in a quality MLB rotation. What he is, is someone that you can stash at AAA or as a long man in your pen that can cover some starts without embarrassing himself. He will be needed, teams don't go through a season without someone missing some starts, that doesn't mean he should be looked at as a regular. |
| 30. By: Wishhiker on 02-08-2013 14:27:43 #18 exactly right. Also with tall pitchers they're usually just waiting on command/control to approach where Beaven has already been. with Beaven it's waiting on him improving a pitch to the point he has a put away pitch. That may never happen, but it seems to me that recent young mariners have made that step. Seems far easier to tweak a pitch to being quality than tweak mechanics to increase command and control. Have Mariners coaching had much to do with other recent pitchers improving their arsenal or is that more on the player? Either way, writing off 24 year old (January birthday) pitchers after their first nearly full MLB season (38 IP in AAA in 12) sounds like a very bad idea. No reason to think Jack would. |
| 31. By: Wishhiker on 02-08-2013 14:30:34 and Beaven pitched 190 innings between MLB and AAA last year. |
| 32. By: StandinPat on 02-08-2013 14:38:54 @30"Seems far easier to tweak a pitch to being quality than tweak mechanics to increase command and control" That's not actually true, it's quite the opposite. It's why you see "Stuff" prospects viewed much more highly than "Command/control" types. "writing off 24 year old (January birthday) pitchers after their first nearly full MLB season (38 IP in AAA in 12) sounds like a very bad idea" AGAIN, no one is suggesting they 'write him off.' Saying that he's not really someone you want to pencil into your rotation for the foreseeable future is not that same as saying we should DFA him. Why are people having such a hard time comprehending that there's a whole much of middle ground between competent MLB starter and complete crap? |
| 33. By: littlelinny6 on 02-08-2013 14:48:58 I was going to respond but StandinPat took care of most of it. Comparing Beavan and Fister is just lazy. In 2010 Fister had a 3 win season on basically walking no one and seeing a huge increase in GB rate. In 2011 he was a 3 win pitcher by the time he was traded, sustaining his GB rate while seeing an uptick in strikeouts. I would love it if Beavan somehow got hitters to chase more pitches out of the zone and induce groundballs at nearly a 50% rate like Fister has done since 2011. However, banking on something like that happening is a bad idea. The M's need upgrades all over the place and as others have not, stashing him in the bullpen as a long man or in AAA as a starter is good for depth. |
| 34. By: Edman on 02-08-2013 15:46:26 Or hey, just not jump to conclusions that Beavan is all he can be? Let's see what he's done in the off-season. Many tend to jump to conclusions. It will all get weeded out in Spring. It doesn't mean that Jack has to rush out and get more insurance. |
| 35. By: whereswoody on 02-08-2013 16:06:36 I agree with many on Beaven. Ya sure, don't rush to judgement till training camp, but most likely he is the same pitcher with the same pitches with the same velocity. Beaven is an innings eater when hes pitching against poor offenses. When he faces good offenses its like their taking batting practice. He will always have those 8 inn, 2 ER games against teams like Minnesota but verse teams like Baltimore you know the games over before the first pitch gets thrown. |
| 36. By: Wishhiker on 02-08-2013 16:23:34 I have no idea what Beaven has worked on in the offseason. Consequently, I have no idea what the chances are that he's improved. I do know that having a plus pitch is basically all he needed to work on and that it's possible he has. That's the point, we won't know until we do. Saying you hope he's in AAA implies that you know where he's at now. Saying to wait on determination just seems logical. The M's won 75 games last year. Anyone suggesting they win less than that either thinks the roster is worse or the competition is better. To me, the roster looks better. Oakland may have improved but it's hard to say they're as good add last year even in wins. Other than that Texas and LAA seem to have less talent in their rosters than last year. The Angels may have underperformed last year, there's AB argument to be made there. But we are adding games against Houston too. Looks like weaker competition with a better roster. 70 win predictions seem preposterous and 75 seems low too. Sure, other AL west teams will also face Houston quite a bit and other AL teams in general. I'm just talking about the competition the mariners will face this year vs last year. |
| 37. By: Shawnuel on 02-08-2013 17:45:39 Looks Like Jack got some more options for "The Pile". "@ProspectInsider: Looks like the M's and Jon Garland have a deal pending a physical." |
| 38. By: DRWheelock on 02-08-2013 18:58:44 I've always liked Garland. This is a GREAT way to season our top SP prospects and keep them from qualifying for Super-Two status this year! I'm for it! I can't see Kelley passing through waivers, so I'm betting Z has a trade up his sleeve already. This should easily keep Noesi in AAA, or send him off in a package deal. Z is rolling this week! Other mariner news: According to Ken Rosenthal Saunders contract is only worth $6.5M with $1M incentives with a mutual 2nd year option. WOW Saunders couldn't get move than a 1 guaranteed year at that price?! More mariner news: Jeff Evans on Twitter https://twitter.com/jeffrevans... Prospect Nick Franklin has bulked up by adding an additional 35 pounds this offseason. Franklin reported to camp last year at 6'1 and 180 pounds, and the organization wanted him to bulk up over the winter. He hit .287/.358/.430 with six homers and 16 steals across three levels in 2012, and could see significant time with the Mariners in 2013 with only Brendan Ryan blocking his path. |
| 39. By: Marlin Man on 02-08-2013 19:38:57 hard to believe Franklin put on 35 lbs?????? maybe he was at that private health club down in S.Florida???? |
| 40. By: didycel on 02-08-2013 19:52:59 @29 StandinPat I had the pleasure of watching almost every game last year. It's not every year I have that opportunity, thanks for asking. I remember a bad stretch for Beavan in June, I think, but I also remember a lot of quality outings too. Don't get me wrong, I don't love him for our rotation and am not extremely confident that he'll break out, but that wasn't the point of my post. The point was to give littlelinny some reasons why folks think Beavan might be OK as our #5, given his potential, and to expand on the remarks made about size and eating innings. I remember Beavan dialing it up to 95 once or twice last year. PitchF/X says he had a couple at 94, from what I can tell, so maybe the park gun was slightly hot when I saw it on TV. Nonetheless, he's still got it in the tank, but for whatever reason, sacrificing velo for control, or whatever, he doesn't sit high 90's. The premise of the post is that when you're projecting Beavan, it's not useful to look only at his stats. If you used just stats to project young pitchers, you would miss half the story. We should consider all the information. I believe Beavan's height and size is a factor to consider when projecting him because he is still young. From what I understand, pitchers typically lose velocity from the get go, but for some reason, M's pitchers seem to have been able to find an extra mph or two lately. It's been written elsewhere suggesting that Beavan's decrease in velocity was due to a change in mechanics and approach from pitching instructors, not fatigue, age or injury. Perhaps he is still working on gaining velo using the changed mechanics/approach. Perhaps he's refining an offspeed pitch or dealing with tweaks in mechanics to maximize his height. We don't know. So saying he hasn't performed yet and then write him off at age 24 seems hasty. His AAA stats from 2 years ago was the last time he logged significant innings in the minors. It's illustrative of what he's capable. The rest of the time he's been struggling, learning in the bigs and trying to make adjustments. Will he make it? His minor league stats alone suggest he could. What we've seen so far at the MLB level is not that impressive, but there's information to suggest he could have a legitimate big league career as a bottom of the rotation starter. Ultimately, I'm with you- he's not great, but saying he doesn't belong near a ML rotation based on 250 young major league innings is a little over the top. I'm sure he'll compete for the 5th spot in the rotation with Garland, Bonderman, Maurer, Paxton, and Hultzen and put up some tough competition. It's possible he's the best of that bunch out of ST. I wouldn't be terribly disappointed if that was the case. Of course, I hope one of the young guys pulls a Michael Pineda, but I'm glad we have Beavan to hold it down until that day comes. Cheers |
| 41. By: Mackie on 02-08-2013 20:36:40 The M's can add Jon Garland to that back-of-the-rotation competition: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/seattle_mariners/index.html |
| 42. By: sexymarinersfan on 02-08-2013 21:46:39 I saw Nick Franklin down in Spring Training last year and my fiancé and I have an autographed picture of him and us in our home. When I see how freaking skinny he is in that and then what I saw sitting in the front row at dugout dialogue at Mariners Fanfest, WHOA!!!! He told us that he was on a 3200 calorie diet!! JESUS!!! That's like that guy Mac off Sunny in Philadelphia only Nick got beefed up!!! His upper body is huge! I'm looking forward to seeing what he does this year in AAA. |
| 43. By: maqman on 02-10-2013 04:52:11 Franklin was listed at 6'1" and 195 pounds last year, so 35 pounds would take him up to 230 pounds which could be a load for a guy his height, especially at SS, should add power though. |
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