|By Jason A. Churchill||By 01-26-2013|
|1. By: Paul Martin on 01-26-2013 08:42:18|
I would love Saunders on a two year deal, and we have the money still in the budget.
Jason, what would we have to give up to get Chris Cappuano? I am shocked I haven't heard more rumors regarding him. You would think LA would have more urgency to make a deal...
|2. By: jgstecker on 01-26-2013 09:04:06|
If the M's do sign Bourn - an almost inevitable move unless some other team gets Illich fever - a Gutierrez for Capuano trade makes all kinds of sense.
LA needs a 4th outfielder and Kemp/Ethier/Crawford would give Gutierrez plenty of ABs. Capuano has been generating interest all winter though so there may have to be some prospects moving on Seattle's part.
Capuano and Saunders aren't mutually exclusive either. Not sure anyone wants to go into the season with Beavan in the rotation.
|3. By: maqman on 01-26-2013 11:38:04|
Nothing personal jgstecker but I doubt seriously if the M's sign Bourne and I wouldn't give up Guti for Capuano and I have no problem going into the season with Beavan, Bill James projects him to pitch 180 innings with a 4.10 ERA and a 4.12 FIP, good enough at the back end of the rotation. Capuano or Romero should cost us The Bartender or Capps and a lesser piece or two. If we get Saunders for two years we keep all of our prospects which would be my preference.
|4. By: rjfrik on 01-26-2013 12:25:13|
God I hope Bourn to the Mariners isn't inevitable. That would just ruin this off season. Please say no to Bourn.
|5. By: MarinerCoug on 01-26-2013 13:13:10|
Bourn: 3/36 or 4/40, fine. 5 years, no thanks.
RE: Guti for Capuano... I would do it. I don't like the idea of trading 150 games of Guti for Capuano, but he hasn't played 150 games since 2010, and has averaged only 115 games over the last five years... So the question is, would you give up 120 games of Guti for 30 starts of Capuano (his average the past three)? I would, as Capuano is exactly the kind of starter this team needs: experienced, cheap, expendable.
|6. By: WSChamps2014 on 01-26-2013 13:20:24|
3, what do you mean Capuano or Romero? Are you talking about Ricky Romero? J.C. Romero? Because I'm really hoping you aren't suggesting a Capuano for Stefen Romero trade. That would be horrendous, as would Wilhelmsen, let alone Capps. Capuano is a salary dump and an A-ball prospect.
A trade that might make sense for Capuano is Guillermo Pimentel and someone like Bawcom, Arias, or Ruffin.
The Dodgers are going to end up making the trade for organizational depth. If the player is close to the majors filling a position of need for us and/or has a good chance of being a regular player, he won't be traded for Capuano.
That leaves long-shots like Pimentel, or righty relievers like the ones listed above. Romero isn't going anywhere because aside from Morse or maybe Liddi, he's the only guy who can play 3B if Seager gets injured.
Guillermo Pimentel is such a long shot to be something useful that he's all projection and tools. These are guys a team like the Dodgers (terrible farm depth) want for their system. Think back to how Jack built our farm four years ago. He got high ceiling/low floor or low ceiling/high floor players and then used the draft to supplement their minor leagues with more solid prospects.
The reason the Mariners and Dodgers would build their farms the same, while being completely different organizations financially, is simple. The Mariners had nothing of value to trade when they started, while the Dodgers have nothing of value that they want to trade, so getting good prospects back is difficult to say the least in both instances.
For what it's worth, I would trade for Lincecum and Capuano, staying far away from Saunders. I would also consider guys like Smyly and Patrick Corbin since they would both be long term pieces and have had good success in their brief call-ups last year.
A good way to get value from Gutierrez in a trade, might be to deal him for Lincecum, where both teams are dealing low on two guys due for a bounce back year. The extra upside of Lincecum would be out-weighed by the option year for Gutierrez, who would be very valuable to the Giants.
Pagan could move to LF, where his defense would be noticeably better, Gutierrez could easily cover one of the most difficult CFs in baseball, and if he can hit in Safeco, he can hit in San Fran.
Throw in a reliever like Pryor and have them send $6M+ to help cover Tim's salary. This would leave salary to add Capuano to fill-out the roster with a trade like the one I suggested above.
We could then deal Wilhelmsen to the Tigers for Smyly and Rondon. We'd still have all three lefties (Furbush, Perez, Luetge), and we'd still have Capps, Kelley, Kinney as righties with a battle between Rondon, Carson Smith, and the other righties for the last bullpen spot. Smyly and Ramirez would battle for the 5th spot in the rotation with Bonderman, and the losers would make a strong AAA rotation with Beavan and Anthony Fernandez.
|7. By: WSChamps2014 on 01-26-2013 14:13:14|
Obviously, Hultzen, Paxton, and Maurer would be part of the AAA rotation as well. But the point is that more than 5 pieces are there to build the starting rotaion in Tacoma, even if Bonderman doesn't make the rotation and decides to cancel his comeback tour.
The remainders might have to start in the AAA bullpen or the AA rotation, and worst case we might be able to trade a couple guys to get back better prospects or guys who fit into existing holes like the Rainier's outfield for one.
I wouldn't sign Bourn, I've heard the arguments and unless he signs for Figgins money, which I doubt, he's not worth it. If his market collapses, he might have to as nobody will do a one-year deal on a player attached to draft pick compensation. In that case, I'd do 3 years with an option for a 4th year at $8-9M a season. A deal like that might be worth the Mariners extending the budget more than they had earmarked, as Jason eluded to early in the offseason.
While highly unlikely, I think if we could make similar moves like the ones I just indicated, it's a good team with playoff potential, especially if Lincecum bounces back, Capuano doesn't regress, Rondon comes as advertised, Smyly or Ramirez can maintain their performances for the whole year, and Bourn if acquired is half the player he's been the last three years. I for the record would be perfectly happy with Wells starting in RF alongside Saunders and Morse, while using Ibañez in a corner sparingly as some form of quasi platoon with Wells getting the lion's share of the playing time.
I just want to also say that the Angels, Rangers, and Athletics are grotesquely overrated.
The Angels rotation is much worse, Hamilton < Hunter, Trout will be good, just not 2012 good which will cost them a couple games, the bullpen could be much worse if Madsen doesn't bounce back quickly. Let's also not forget Pujols start to 2011 and 2012, plus the last half of 2012 for both Hamilton and Trumbo. Pencil them down for a maximum of 85 wins.
The Athletics biggest upgrade is Jaso and Young. They aren't going to sit Norris 110 games a year if he's their catcher of the future, so Jaso's going to be worth 1.5-2 WAR, which hardly compensates for about 10 wins worth of talent that walked out the door this offseason (McCarthy, Drew, Gomes, Inge, Pennington, etc.) They added a 4th outfielder to a log jam that is worse than the D-backs' problem before signing Ross. Oakland has 4 well above-average outfielders in Reddick, Cespedes, Crisp, and Young, plus Seth Smith. Meanwhile, they signed a guy who looks like a cross between Ryan and Munenori Kawasaki to be their starting SS for two-years. Add all of that to the fact that Brandon Moss, Chris Carter, and a slew of others had abnormally strong years, and this is a recipe for huge regression. They are going to be lucky to win 80 games.
The Rangers are the most interesting because of the ridiculous hype they get for past accomplishments. Their rotation is not a lot better than the Mariners current rotation, if Iwakuma, Ramirez, and Beavan can perform at the same level as they did in 2012 for the whole upcoming season, as having Felix compensates for most of the shortcomings that exist after him in the rotation. Martin Perez in my mind is no more talented and just as frustrating as our own Hector Noesi. I don't think counting on Ogando to pitch 200 innings or Feliz to bounce pack from surgery is fair to either.
The outfield is missing Hamilton, they still haven't solved 1B/DH/C, they didn't fill the gap left by Napoli offensively, nor the leadership of Mike Young. Kinsler and Cruz both took big steps back in 2012, look for more of the same. Pierzynski is a joke and a band-aid at best. In 2012 at 35 years old, he posted his first OPS+ of 95 or higher in 9 years. You have to go back to 2003 to find a season when he was a positive contributor with the bat before 2012. Berkman and Pierzynski form the missing pieces of a Moreland/Soto platoon. Moreland will play 1B, with Berkman DHing and A.J. catching most of the time. The rest of the time, Berkman will play 1B, with Pierzynski DHing and Soto catching. They run out their worst team against lefties and their good team is marginal against righties. I'm sure this is why Jack wants lefties in the rotation. I would say the Rangers will win a maximum of 85 games this year, unless they make a surprise trade to augment their roster.
What was a very competitive division in 2012 will be a marginal division in 2013, only the inclusion of the Astros might push some of these teams close to 90 wins. I believe the Mariners have a minimum of 80 wins on their roster right now, and that if any of Ackley, Smoak, Montero, Saunders, Wells, Ramirez, Iwakuma, Ryan or anyone from the Tacoma roster take another step forward, those will all lead to additional wins and with enough progress from the roster, this could be a team that wins 90-95 games. While unlikely, it won't be because of the talent in the division that they don't reach the playoffs, it'll be because of stagnated development.
|8. By: Paul Martin on 01-26-2013 15:20:57|
@6 & @7, posts are too long and off topic. I could get through half of it...just thought you might want to know...
|9. By: Galway on 01-26-2013 15:49:45|
Question may be off target, so apologies in advance.
How long does a player who was hurt have to be healthy to not viewed as a walking injury? Would that be put to rest if Guti stays healthy for three years? I ask because Capuano had pretty big injury issues, but since has been a solid lefty innings eater for the Mets and Dodgers. He is not sexy or frontline but I have a hard time believing lefty innings eaters are A-ball prospect value. So truth is likely somewhere in between and in some ways depends how much you still value injury risk.
|10. By: sexymarinersfan on 01-26-2013 18:37:09|
So a little update from Jack Zduriencik at Fanfest. He said a pretty significant deal will be going down this week in terms of additions to the roster. He didn't indicate as to whether or not it was via trade or free agency.
Also he mentioned that the players reported in the Justin Upton deal was inaccurate. He wouldn't say who though.
When asked about Michael Bourn he brought up the topic of possibly losing their 1st rd draft pick was a big deal but also just as equally important to him was losing the allotted amount of money that just goes away for signing the said player like Bourn. He did though get pretty mum really quick when asked if we were in at all on Bourn. It sounded like they were kicking the tires on him.
The zip line looked so cool, but I was all about the autographs today. Fanfest is literally my 2nd favorite day of the year! Hope you found this info interesting.
|11. By: dewey on 01-26-2013 18:43:30|
#10 did JZ sat he was trading Walker ,and the others again to get this piece?
|12. By: sexymarinersfan on 01-26-2013 18:57:49|
He did not say whether Walker was part of the deal or not but the reason that he was interested in Upton was because he and his staff felt that Justin was about to enter his prime and some superstar years. He said he strongly believed that Upton's numbers would severely spike in the near future.
The only thing he mentioned that pertained to Walker was the sheer fact that he was the most if not the best valued top prospect in the system.
Also that he's never ever trading Felix. He said when teams come calling and offering prospects he said "I already have prospects. Why would I need more"? And then chuckled. That crowd got pretty loud after that with cheer.
|13. By: Paul Martin on 01-26-2013 19:34:27|
@10 Thanks for the info. I moved to Houston 3 years ago and wish I could have been there. Excited about going to the games in Houston this year and rooting for the M's though!!!
|14. By: sexymarinersfan on 01-26-2013 19:41:22|
No problem. Anytime. I'll be down in Houston for the Seahawks game this year. My fiancé and I are moving to Dallas/Ft. Worth in 34 days!
|15. By: DRWheelock on 01-26-2013 21:30:48|
God I'd be ESTATIC if that significant deal was involving Stanton & Nolasco coming here!
That may drop our Farm System down to 9th or 12th in MLB, but we'd still have this years 1st round selection AND all the other miracle picks to improve our Farm over others. What we've seen over the past 4 years is Z taking our Farm system from a ranking of 26th to #2. That is outright AMAZING! Trading away for Stanton would take how long to get back in the top 3? Maybe a couple years?!
Regarding trades though?
It's kind of interesting that all the news on Gutz right now is just how healthy he is and has NOTHING that has hindered him in the past. This maybe a plot to attempt to raise his trade value, especially after his Winter League stats just recently.
Along with top prospects like Walker and others, if they would send Gutz and Smoak in the package for Stanton & Nolasco. Morales moves to 1B then, with Morse as DH, Saunders in CF, Stanton in RF, with Bay/Ibanez in LF. This could then lead to a Bourn signing for CF.
I do believe something is brewing, just looking out our logjam now with OF/1B/DH.
|16. By: Edman on 01-26-2013 22:03:16|
I'd be absolutely stunned if it involved Stanton. It's about as likely has Rick Rizz growing a full head of hair, naturally.
|17. By: Paul Martin on 01-26-2013 22:26:48|
@15 don't get me wrong, I would LOVE to have Stanton, but that trade is likely at least a year away. Jack and company are so quiet when it comes to moves, he wouldn't say ANYTHING if he had a trade of that magnitude in the works.
More likely signing another catcher and picking up another starter.
I am hoping we give Gutierrez and Smoak one last chance to salvage their careers. Don't want to sell low on either right now.
|18. By: DRWheelock on 01-26-2013 22:41:33|
For Stanton? That's not selling low! But I too would love to see if we end up with a fully healthy Gutz for an entire year, and the 2012 Aug/Sept version of Smoak for a full year.
A "significant deal" isn't a signing of one of the catchers out there. It sounds like a Trade is brewing to me.
|19. By: cpuglisi on 01-26-2013 23:42:35|
I think that Saunders would be a great replacement for Vargas. U add Saunders to the mix and you have a rotation that consists of:
and who ever wins the 5th spot coming out of camp.(Ramirez, Hultzen, Bonderman, exct.)
I don't think that the mariners will sign Bourn. I think the the fans would be happy but lets face it the M's value the #12 pick in the draft. there are some potential stars the ms could get with that pick alone. to give up that high of a pick on a declining 30 year old center fielder is not a good long term move.
Either way i think the ms are a better team than a month and a halve ago. i think this team could win 80- 85 games this year. this team has a lot of good things. Players taking the next step, a very underrated bullpen, a red hot manager means this team could improve beyond expectations and make some teams dance a little bit.
|20. By: Galway on 01-27-2013 05:13:59|
Adding a starting pitcher to the rotation is a significant addition.
I'd empty everything for Stanto and M's are probably one of maybe 4 or five teams that can put together a cost effective package for Miami but still a pretty low probability.
Used to love fanfest when lived in Seattle was a fav event for the kids, thanks. Sounds like an awfully high assesment of Upton, will be interesting to see what his futute is.
|21. By: Panhead55 on 01-27-2013 08:59:17|
Why Miami should keep Stanton and why they should move him.
Miami lost a lot of credibility with their Toronto trade. The trade itself wasn't that bad of a trade. They got rid of some some bad contracts and got back some decent cost controlled players coming back. They also jettisoned Heath Bell in a salary dump. The issue with the trade was that Loria got himself a new stadium at taxpayers expense under the promise of building a contender. Now Stanton is the one of the very few reasons for fans to attend games. Stanton would be traded already if the Marlins weren't concerned with a total fan revolt. For this reason it behooves Miami to let more time pass before moving Stanton.
Stanton has nothing to prove and will never have more trade value than NOW. He is controlled for 4 more years, but starting next year he will begin to become expensive as he enters his last three years of arbitration. As his control diminishes and his cost increases, his trade value falls. Miami will get the best return by trading him prior to the start of this season.
I believe Miami will trade Stanton before the season's beginning or by the trade deadline. Seattle is one of two or three clubs, which has the goods to get that deal done. Let's keep our fingers crossed.
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