| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 01-28-2013 |
There are 15 days left until pitchers and catchers report to spring training for the Seattle Mariners. Notably, the minor leaguers will officially report March 1.The M's may be close to adding another catcher and continue to work on adding a starting pitcher, but as the report dates approach, let's talk about some roster battles.
Outfield
Presuming the Mariners do not add another outfielder, the Opening Day outfield is likely to consist of Franklin Gutierrez, if healthy, Michael Morse and Michael Saunders. If Gutierrez stubs a toe, Eric Thames, Casper Wells, Raul Ibanez and Jason Bay could become options.
The roster cannot carry them all, and may not be able to carry more than four, so Bay, Thames and Wells could be fighting it out for one spot. The most likely to be traded is Thames, though if Bay is 100 percent and producing during spring games deep into the Cactus League season, Wells probably takes over that title.
Catcher
If a veteran such as Kelly Shoppach is added, Ronny Paulino will serve as depth in case of injury, unlikely to make the 25-man roster. Shoppach has had some solid seasons at the plate in the past, though he struggled the second half of last season and will be 33 in April. I wonder how much is left in the tank.
Shoppach has a history of handling left-handed pitching fairly well, but his bat is slowing down some and hes never been much more than a passable defender. Assuming he doesn't fall completely off the cliff, he should be able to provide some value as the backup for half a season. If he does sign, officially, I expect there to be some guaranteed dollars attached, but perhaps not enough to guarantee him a spot on the roster. Like with Bay, any player that signs for any guaranteed money can be cut loose at different points in March without being owed the full amount. That includes those that were arbitration eligible.
Rotation
For this exercise we will assume the M's add a mid-rotation type starter that will handle 30-plus starts, which pushes back the youngsters in Erasmo Ramirez and Blake Beavan.
After Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma and the new addition, the M's will have to go young -- or will they?
Jeremy Bonderman is in Arizona throwing already and may be able to contribute. The prospects will be given a chance, particularly Danny Hultzen and James Paxton, but if they don't win the job outright, Ramirez and Beavan are likely to be in the rotation when the regular season starts.
The first arm bumped is likely to be Beavan, despite his acceptable traditional statistics from a year ago. Ramirez offers more upside and a better pure stuff and command, though in a perfect world he'd be the clubs long reliever.
Hector Noesi is on the outside looking in, but neither of the two final starting roles are set.
Bullpen
Tom Wilhelmsen returns as the club's closer with left-handers Oliver Perez, Charlie Furbush and Lucas Luetge also set to return after strong years in 2012.
The right-hander crew may be fluid; it's no guarantee that both Stephen Pryor and Carter Capps make the team out of spring training and arbitration-eligible right-hander Shawn Kelley could still be traded. Josh Kinney is back, however, and the club has yet to add any veterans to the mix, and may not, thanks to good organizational depth.
Predictions
One former M's player now with another club texted me this week to predict that Morse would hit 30 home runs and Jesus Montero would make the all-star team.
He also predicted the Angels' fade last season and that the Giants would surprise people. When he's done playing, we'll hire him here at PI to be our in-house fortune teller, because, yeah, he needs the money.
Prospect note
Over the past several months I have been asked by readers, Twitter followers, friends and even family, what the difference is between Stefen Romero and Vincent Catricala. The two aren't the same at all, except that each bats right-handed, had big years in Double-A Jackson before hitting Triple-A Tacoma. Catricala struggled something fierce a year ago. Romero won't.
Why?
It's upstairs. The handbook will have details, but when you think of Romero, don't think of Catricala. They aren't the same player.
spring-training-countdown:-15-days
Comments
The following 16 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: Docmilo on 01-28-2013 10:35:44 What kind of return could Zduriencik get from Tampa for Carp, Wells and Kelley? |
| 2. By: maqman on 01-28-2013 10:48:53 Cat the Bat had a bad year in Tacoma, for whatever reason, and then continued to flounder in the first half of the AFL. However he came on strong in the last half of the AFL, which might indicate he finally found his swing again or he finished recovering from some sort of physical impairment. I wouldn't write him off just yet, at least until they see what he has in spring training. They would be selling low on him if they move him before that. Supposedly Z is going to come forth with a pitcher acquisition shortly. I believe the term "young pitcher" was used or hinted at. That might well mean Porcello - or not. I can see Morse hitting 30 dingers but Montero as an All-Star is a stretch. I do hope Montero and Smoak figure out the pitching in The Show, both for their own sake and to justify Z's belief in them. |
| 3. By: masonb on 01-28-2013 10:58:16 I posted this in yesterday's thread but I'll update it here since I think it's an interesting question: I saw it listed on Jason's twitter or maybe ESPN that a loophole that the Mets and Mariners could exploit with Bourn is to sign him to a MiLB deal and then the draft pick wouldn't be an issue. My question is how does that work? Can he only sign a 1 year deal, and can they basically sign him to a MiLB with a large guaranteed salary he would likely command? And would the Commissioner's office even allow that to happen? Seems like an interesting loophole |
| 4. By: Edman on 01-28-2013 11:07:08 masonb, it's highly doubtful that the Comissioner's office would allow a player like Bourn or Lohse to be signed to a MiLB contract. Then, every team wouild try that trick to avoid losing a draft pick. I see no chance in the world of that loophole going through. It would subvert the intent of the collective bargining agreement. |
| 5. By: docsmith on 01-28-2013 11:08:20 I'd be pretty shocked if that loophole worked. Similar to the "sign and trade" loophole, I recall reading that the commissioner's office has the ability to veto contracts/trades if the intent is to circumvent existing rules. I could be wrong. Actually, I'd be happy if I was, as I understand compensating teams for losing talent but not punishing teams for acquiring talent. |
| 6. By: Galway on 01-28-2013 11:17:59 I think only chance of a loophole may be for the Mets and only if the players association endorses then maybe they could argue giving their second round stays withing the spirit of the agreement as they should have drafted in 10th spot if not for failure of Pirates to sign their pick last year. Why be punished and why should Bourn be punished? Even then its a reach at best. Morse really can hit well. I watched him play here at Nats games and he has figured it out sort to speak. His fielding will age you however. Montero almost gets punished in terms of perception because he came up youn I think folks forget he has huge upside. |
| 7. By: diderot on 01-28-2013 12:08:38 I am a first class passenger on the Montero bandwagon. It's clear from the batted ball data that last season he distinctly changed his approach the second half. It didn't all come together, but he's literally learning on the job--which is both understandable and laudable for a guy in his age 22 season. In Mike Piazza's initial season, at age 23, he posted a dismal 603 OPS. The next year, he exploded. Am I saying Montero is the next Piazza? Well, that would be wishful thinking. But until I see it proved otherwise, I'm going to think it. |
| 8. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-28-2013 13:40:56 The MILB deal for Bourn, or any other free agents, is not a matter of the commissioner or the league. It violates the basic agreement, in theory, but without specifics and there's no possible way to prove intent in that scenario. The problem is most teams do not like to upset the pine cone cart for any reason and this would certainly anger the league, the commissioner himself and other owners and front offices. I tossed it out there on Twitter because the discussions of sign-and-trades came up a lot and nobody had mentioned the FACT that free agents that sign MiLB deals do not require compensation. It's all a big issue that needs to be fixed, and the Mets are SOL when it comes to their situation. It's not going to be changed this offseason and the league isn't going to grant some sort of exemption. It's collectively bargained and will have to be taken care of in that manner. On Montero as an all-star: If Jose Lopez can make an all-star team, Montero can, too. If he has a good first half, you never know. Don't bet on it, with Mauer and Wieters and Perez leading the AL, but an injury to one or two of them could lead to a surprise. It happens. Docmilo, Not much for Carp, a little for Wells and a little for Kelley but why would Tampa want them? They don't have those kinds of holes, really, especially after adding Kelly Johnson, sending Zobrist back to the outfield. |
| 9. By: d2ret on 01-28-2013 14:41:06 Jason, might you have any insight into why M's latino bat prospects continue to flounder in their development system wide? The names being Triunfel, Martinez, Pimentel, Castillo, Chavez, De Jesus, and more. This must be seen as a major concern. Is the instruction not as well received because of the language barrier? We are not getting the most out of our latin talents, and something must be wrong systemically in player development. Can you shed any light on this topic Church? |
| 10. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-28-2013 14:56:20 1. Bad development 2. Holes in the scouting The area guys found good talents, but not guys with makeup and work ethic. 3. This, in part, is why Patrick Guerrero was let go, which led to Bob Engle leaving, too. |
| 11. By: Edman on 01-28-2013 15:07:16 That's why I didn't shed a tear when Guerrero was let go. And, personally, I think Engle gave him more loyalty that he deserved. Remember, Patrick had some ethics problems. |
| 12. By: blissedj on 01-28-2013 15:14:09 Jason - I'm a bit surprised to see you mention Erasmo as fitting best in long relief. In a perfect world he continues to confound hitters with his change, refines his command and ends up #3 in our rotation in a couple years. Watching him last year he is right there with the Big 4. Any specific reason you are down on him aside from being a short righty? |
| 13. By: d2ret on 01-28-2013 15:22:08 Considering the resources we pour into international signings, Im glad to see Jack attempting a fix on that deficiency. |
| 14. By: Iowa Ms Fan on 01-28-2013 19:21:28 With the outfield so overloaded with players. How likely could the Mariners send Gutierrez to the Mets for a mid-rotation starting pitcher? It could potentially fix some problems. |
| 15. By: StandinPat on 01-28-2013 21:46:57 Having one legitimate regular is exactly the definition of being 'ocerloaded' |
| 16. By: StandinPat on 01-29-2013 09:05:33 That should be ISN'T the definition of OVERLOADED. Autocorrect strikes again. |
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