| By Chris Crawford |  | By 02-11-2013 |
There's one day left until the pitchers and catchers of your Seattle Mariners report to spring training.
Today, we'll talk about Felix Hernandez's elbow, because that's all anyone wants to talk about, and I give the people what they want.
Everybody needs to calm down
Well, it was a pretty nice, calm Sunday when all of a sudden Buster Olney decided to ruin everyone's weekend when he tweeted that concerns over Felix Hernandez's elbow might be slowing down the proposed extension negotiations.
First, let me make this abundantly clear. Buster Olney is good at his job. He isn't trying to ruin your day by breaking this news, he doesn't have any sort of coastal bias and he isn't making things up on the matter. Just the notion that people would think this way hurts my head, and I've got enough reasons for my head to hurt without that, so stop it.
Now that I got that out of the way, this news did surprise me. Outside of 2007, I don't remember Hernandez ever having any issues with his elbow, and if he did, they did a great job concealing it. But, that's why teams have players take physicals. How long the Mariners have known Felix had an issue with his elbow is anyone's guess, but it obviously didn't concern them enough to sign him to an extension in 2009. This is for more years -- and a lot more money -- but you would think a significant elbow issue would have been leaked.
I have no idea if this will prevent Seattle from being able to sign Hernandez to a long term deal or not, but I will go on record as saying I readily doubt it. As Dave Cameron said, there will likely be clauses that will allow Felix to make more money if the elbow stays healthy, and allow the Mariners to avoid a potential calamity. Is it less of a sure thing then it was five days ago? Perhaps; but these things happen, and they tend to work out more often than not, especially when they're with talents like Felix Hernandez.
One last thing, and to be honest I haven't heard anyone mention this before, but outside of both being fantastic pitchers this is nothing like the Randy Johnson situation. Johnson was eight years older than Felix when the M's decided to not sign Johnson to an extension, and two years before he had only made 14 appearances. Felix has made 30 or more starts seven straight years, and has been as durable as a pitcher can be. They are apples and oranges, so don't let anyone tell you it's the same thing.
We should also keep this in mind: We don't know if these concerns are based on something substantial in an initial physical, or if it's more of a caution flag. Around here, we tend to see it as a cautionary tale that needs new language in the contract to protect the team, just like the Red Sox did with John Lackey.
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Comments
The following 14 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: ripperlv on 02-11-2013 04:43:08 Maybe the M's put a clause in the contract similiar to Lackey and the Red Sox. Regardless, I hope Felix is heathly for years to come. |
| 2. By: whereswoody on 02-11-2013 05:24:29 I mean this in no disrespect chris crawford, but your spitting a lot of stuff before any of "real" info has been leaked. Since 09', felix has thrown over 400 innings, the elbow thing could have and probably has popped up since then. Buster Onley's report does not spill any kind of detail gets me mad because it seems like hes reporting from an east coast fans perspective. Like "ohh the M's might not sign him now, Yank fans: Are you reading this?" The only way the M's would be this weary about his elbow would HAVE to be from an MRI. How else would they presumably leak anything to this degree about his elbow being a factor. The MRI tells all, from bone chips to UCL tears. The mariners and no other team have the expertise to stall the extension by just looking at his mechanics or an X-Ray. An MRI is the only proof of evidence any sport team of any sport can refer to when it regards a situation of this magnitude "there is something wrong with his elbow but its not that serious". If that is the true report then there has to be something concrete when management looked at the MRI of the elbow. My guess is a minor tear of the UCL (Type one tear):(what Natali Felix had last year) or a bone chip. Either way, 5 more years after the next two hes already due wouldn't effect the M's all that much especially if they feel they cant compete for the division this year. I tore my UCL and have come back 100 percent. James Andrews would patch him up just right. Just speculation, so if I'm wrong, Edman: please dont murder me? |
| 3. By: whereswoody on 02-11-2013 05:29:37 If it is a minor UCL tear which will depend on the scar tissue as a future act of his dependence than the clause would be extremely beneficial |
| 4. By: DRWheelock on 02-11-2013 08:24:56 Jason and Chris, What do you think of the Mariners being the "AL Surprise Team" for 2013 that Dave Flemming over at 'Bill James Online' picks: http://www.billjamesonline.com/which_team_will_surprise_in_2013_/ |
| 5. By: maqman on 02-11-2013 11:21:33 I think Dave Fleming knows what he is talking about. Without using his metrics I came to the same conclusion pretty much based on similar factors. I will be truly surprised if the M's don't at least finish over .500, although D/L time for key players can sink any expectation. Rosenthal has posted a positive piece on Garland, who sounds like he could contribute. It's at: http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/spring-training-can-jon-garland-make-a-comeback-seattle-mariners-los-angeles-dodgers-cleveland-indians-021013 |
| 6. By: Galway on 02-11-2013 11:32:22 It would be an interesting situation if both Bonderman and Garland made the rotation. Good chance neither does as well but if they do it would be a heck of a story. The M's have the set up with youth and talent to have a breakout year in the near future. This can be an 85 win team with a few things going right but the variability is just huge. If Morales or Guti struggle w health, Montero and ackley don't step forward the downside may be in the lower 70s for wins. There is enough pieces on the pitching side to patch through if need be but the offense which has good potential has much less margin for error or ability to plug holes. |
| 7. By: Edman on 02-11-2013 12:07:53 Thanks maqman, it's an interesting read. |
| 8. By: Lonnie on 02-11-2013 13:15:50 A couple of things... 1 - I think that the leaked intel on Felix's MRI doesn't help either side, so who leaked the information and for what purpose? It definately didn't help Felix's side, and it doesn't really help the Mariner's side. Some people are even now calling the delay in signing the contract as the Mariners "weaseling" on the deal. 2 - What happens if June 15th rolls around and Ackley is batting .2350/.325/.390? I mean, that is a slight improvement over his performance in 2012, but is it enough to justify him being in the everyday lineup for the remainder of the season? I ask this because I have a gut feeling that Ackley will never come close to his hype. |
| 9. By: Wishhiker on 02-11-2013 15:20:10 On Ackley, you put his OPS at .715. Last year the AL average was .711. He's much better than average defensively, so at 2nd, where that OPS would have put him 16th last year, I still think he's a starter. I anticipate better OBP and average than that, but hitting is very weak in MLB right now anyway. Last year he was 22nd in wOBA for 2nd, as horrible as he was hitting. 20th in OPS. If nothing else, there must be quite a few teams looking for decent hitting 2nd basemen. On Felix, only 3 words have been reported from a source:"it's an issue" All other indications are that if it's an issue at all it is minor. Maybe there's indication that he should have a proactive TJ surgery next offseason. That's all anything has been on this is speculation. It's an issue, according to one anonymous source. That's all we've got. Shouldn't be enough to decide it's anything at all. Maybe it is, but we don't know. Felix is said to be showing up on time and doing everything normal along with the other pitchers. Zduriencik has said that he's seen him throwing the last couple months and he's his normal self. Those are attributable and at least downplay it being an issue. One source is great for conspiracy theorists, but my opinion demands more than an ambiguous quote from an unnamed person. |
| 10. By: Mackie on 02-11-2013 15:40:20 I know a lot of people aren't going to be satisfied with Ackley if all he becomes is a guy who can consistently put up an OPS of .750-.800 and play great defense at 2B, but I'd be fine with that. In my opinion, if he can develop into a slightly better-than-average hitter and defend well every year, he will be extremely valuable to the ball club at his position. And if he hits better than that some years, it's gravy. If that is as high as he gets performance-wise, many will consider him a failure because of him being a second pick in the first round, because of all the hype surrounding him, etc. I'd love it if he could become a perennial All-Star, but as Mariner fans, we're begging for talent. If beggars can't be choosers, then I'm happy if he can just become an all-around solid ballplayer. I think the Mariners could do worse than that. Let's see how he does this year! I'm looking forward to it... Seeing how Ackley, Saunders, Smoak, and Montero all do, if they continue to develop. How the pitching staff shakes out through Spring Training... can Bonderman and/or Garland figure into the picture? And how the hitting looks. I'm ready!! Let's go!! 8-) |
| 11. By: Edman on 02-11-2013 15:40:33 Ackley played very well last year, considering that he was dealing with a painful bone spur. He was unable to plant his back foot, the way he should. I'm not worried about Ackley. He could continue to struggle, but from all I've read about him, he'll work his butt off to show what he can really do. Only idiots would say that the Mariners are "weaseling". When you commit $175 million to one player, you have to get the language of the contract right. Felix knows this. Considering how much Jack likes to keep negotiations quiet, I wouldn't be surprised if he's seeking out the source of the leak. |
| 12. By: Paul Martin on 02-11-2013 18:06:55 Looks like Bourn is signing with Cleveland! We can all breath easier knowing Seattle didn't make that mistake... |
| 13. By: Mackie on 02-11-2013 21:06:15 11, good points. My thought is that if Ackley doesn't quite live up to all the hype and ends up being 'good' but not necessarily 'great' I'm OK with that. And I agree he will work his butt off, so I won't be surprised if he ends up more than just a 'good' player. I will only be surprised if what we saw last year is his ceiling, and I find the chance of that extremely unlikely. That's one of the things I like so much about him (how hard he works), and it's the same with Seager and Saunders! They're all hard-working kids and they all have room to grow! 12, I'm with you. I'm glad the Mariners didn't sign Bourn, for various reasons. I find it interesting the Indians got both Bourn and Swisher, FA outfielders Seattle was linked to. In a year or two I think we will have a good idea as to whether it was good or bad that Seattle didn't get to sign one or both of them. |
| 14. By: maqman on 02-12-2013 11:11:36 If for no other reason than it will shut up Geoff Baker I'm glad to see Bourn signed. Glad for the Indians too, they are showing what teams can do with the increased national media money. Their's will just about cover the cost of Bourne and Swisher together after this season. (The Indians owner also sold their regional Sports Time Ohio network to Fox for a reported $230MM in December and increased the team's TV contract to $40MM, up by $8MM.) The M's can boost their payroll by over $33MM next year with their new national media money and Figgin's $8MM finally off of the books; plus an additional $7MM if they don't pick up Guti's option. They can keep one or both of the M&Ms (Morales and Morse) if they produce and still sign just about any free agent they want. They can find out who the keepers and sleepers are this season and then fill in the holes. About Ackley, if he doesn't work out we are not without potential replacements at 2B. Seagar could cover it well, although he's best at 3B now, but Romero or Franklin could fill his space quite well. We have depth at C, 1B, LF and DH and Franklin could fill SS in a pinch as well as Andino. |
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