Prospect Insider - Spring Battles to Watch

Spring Battles to Watch

By Jason A. Churchill

By 02-20-2013

The Seattle Mariners added a handful of new players to the mix over the winter. A few of them are assured roster spots and roles, a few of them are not. There are also returning players without any guarantees. The result is a spring full of battles for roster spots.

The club's starting rotation is not set at the back end, nor is the bullpen or the fourth outfielder role.

Starting Rotation

Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma and Joe Saunders will occupy the top three spots in the starting rotation, but the final two are up for grabs. Let's talk about the candidates.

The Favorites
Erasmo Ramirez, RHP
Ramirez performed well at the big-league level in 2012, derailed only by an injury that cost him nearly two months due to rest and minor-league rehab and ultimately limited the right-hander to eight starts and 16 total appearances.

The stuff is solid, perhaps equal to that of No. 3 starter, and Ramirez throws strikes consistently. The slider and curveball are both about average but the changeup is occasionally a plus offering and a weapon versus left-handed batters. The 92-95 mph fastball sets it all up, and when he commands the pitch early in the count he's a tough customer.

Durability may be a concern long term, but at 22 the Nicaraguan has two seasons of 150-plus innings and did not spend a day on the disabled list until his stint last season. If the elbow is sound, Ramirez is a heavy favorite for one of the two available spots.

Jon Garland, RHP
Garland, 33, did not pitch in 2012 after having shoulder surgery in July of 2011. When healthy, he offers an average fastball in the 87-89 mph range and compliments it with mid-80s cutter and three fringe-average offspeed pitches; a slider, curveball and changeup.

Garland's curveball lacks bite and he tends to use the fastball-slider-changeup combo, at least in his past few healthy seasons. He doesn't miss bats but he gets enough ground balls to survive and combines solid control with an acceptable home run rate to handle a No. 5 starter's role.

Garland, however, hasn't produced an average or better season in the American League, the circuit with more offense with which to deal, since 2007, and the big unknown here is how reliable he can be.

Still, a strong spring and Garland likely breaks camp with one of the five starting spots.

Jeremy Bonderman, RHP
Bonderman brings a little of Ranmirez's raw stuff and at least as many healthy concerns as Garland, as he's coming off Tommy John surgery in April of last season.

At his best, Bonderman sits 91-93 with his four-seamer and gets strikeouts with an average slider and improving changeup. In 2010, his last active season, Bonderman's velocity dipped to the 88-89 mph range, but he also learned to use his changeup more effectively.

Bonderman's chances may be pinned to how well his reconstructed elbow responds after just 10-plus months, especially considering he went into surgery having merely passable control and that's perhaps the part of a pitcher's abilities that takes the longest to return.

The good news is he just turned 30 and he wouldn't be the first TJ recipient to get all the way back inside of a year. The former first-round pick could start the year in Triple-A Tacoma preparing for a role in the big leagues, but if he throws well in March Ramirez and Garland won't be running away with anything.

Like Garland, Bonderman is a non-roster invitee, so the honus is on him to force the hand of the club.

Long Shots
Blake Beavan, RHP
Beavan has an advantage in that skipper Eric Wedge and pitching coach Carl Willis know him well and trust him after a respectable effort in 2012. He's healthy, too, but in the end Beavan's lack of upside opens the door quite wide for the above trio to step in and steal a job.

The right-hander also has an option left and can b called upon if needed down the line. If two of the three favorites struggle or appear to struggle with injuries of any kind, Beavan could sneak in the side door and head north with the big club come April.

The Big Four
Danny Hultzen, James Paxton, Brandon Maurer and Taijuan Walker are long shots to varying degrees this spring. Walker, 20, isn't likely to be a consideration until 2014, but the elder three may each see time at some point this season. It's just not likely to be in April.

Hultzen will address mechanical issues which led to uncharacteristic control problems last summer, while Paxton continues to work on repeating his own delivery and throwing more strikes.

Maurer, surprisingly, may be the best equipped -- at least as 2012 concluded -- to earn a spot on the major-league roster this spring.

Bullpen

Most of the bullpen is set -- Tom Wilhelmsen will handle the ninth inning, Oliver Perez, Lucas Luetge and Charlie Furbush provide an arsenal versus left-handed batters with Josh Kinney, Carter Capps and Stephen Pryor likely to round out a 7-man unit.

Likely, but not set in stone.

Pryor could give way to veteran Kameron Loe or Jhonny Nunez, though Loe prefers to start, and Logan Bawcom could be a dark horse. Pryor figures to be the one on the hot seat more than Kinney, who is guaranteed $700,000 for 2013, or Capps, who may have the best fastball in baseball.

Bobby LafromBoise and non-roster invitee Brian Moran could challenge Luetge.

Right-handers Carson Smith, Jonathan Arias and Danny Farquhar are long shots, for now.

Fourth Outfielder

Franklin Gutierrez and Michael Saunders are locks, and with first base and designated hitter loaded with candidates, Michael Morse is slated for one of the corner outfield spots. Raul Ibanez will make the club as a part-time outfielder, first baseman, DH and as a pinch hitter, but the fourth outfielder's role is up for grabs.

The two main options are Casper Wells and Jason Bay, both right-handed batters, with lefty-hitting Eric Thames a factor only if there is an injury or a spring training trade that changes the dynamic.

Wells fared well versus left-handed pitching in 2012 and despite poor advanced metrics, is a solid defender capable of handling center field on occasion.

Bay hasn't been able to stay healthy and hasn't hit since 2009 and is not a good bet to be an asset with the glove. The 34-year-old is guaranteed a portion of his contract -- $500,000 -- but if the club releases him by March 27 they'll owe Bay just 45 days termination pay, which is about $130,000.

Wells is out of options, so if it appears he's not going to make the club, you can bet the Mariners will be shopping his services.

If I had to wager, I'd bet on Bay making the team is he appears healthy and is producing at the plate. If it were me, I'd cut bait on Bay before the March 13 deadline so I could owe him just 30 days termination pay, which less than $90,000.

Notes
Other M's out of options include Robert Andino, who is likely to start the season as the extra infielder, as well as Kinney and Mike Carp, who is likely to be traded by end of business Thursday after being DFA'd on February 12... Walker's showing his new curveball this spring, a grip alteration to the spike variety, which is essentially a knuckle-curve. The change began over the winter in attempt to sharpen and firm the pitch.

spring-battles-to-watch

Comments
The following 6 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: Paul Martin on 02-20-2013 03:56:58
Bonderman a favorite and Beavan a long shot??? I would have guessed it would be the other way around? Is Bonderman healthy?

I sure hope we don't cut Casper Wells in favor of Jason Bay. I would be fine with cutting our losses with Bay today. How much will his spring training stats mean anyway? Once Ibanez was signed, Bay became redundant. Gutierrez is a major health risk already and we don't need another one...

2. By: Docmilo on 02-20-2013 07:10:50
How about the non-battle. From the little I've read and the short clips that have been available, I'm sold on Shoppach. He'll get his fair amount of playing time, but the guy seems to be sold on coaching up the young kids. I can see him in Montero's back pocket this season constantly schooling him on being a major league backstop. I could even see the M's bringing him back next year to do the same for Zunino.

He's going to take a ton of pressure off the kids showing them how to get it done.

3. By: Edman on 02-20-2013 09:16:17
Paul, how about not cutting off your nose, in spite of your face? Wells hasn't exactly been spectacular, when Bay has had spectacular in his past. You're all for cutting Bay now? And this is based on what, your high level of player analysis, or personal opinion?

They both come in to compete for an outfield job. That's how you get the best team, not jumping to conclusions based on limited information or conjecture.

Let Bay and Wells compete, which is as it's suppose to be. If Bay can return to his old form, he's an asset. If he doesn't, he'll be unemployed.

4. By: Paul Martin on 02-20-2013 09:47:35
@3 2008 was his last really productive season, although 2009 was serviceable. I just don't see it happening. Also, for a fourth outfielder Wells is able to play all 3 outfield positions, and play them well. It makes Wells a great late inning defensive replacement for Morse or Ibanez. Can't say the same about Bay, not even close.

I am not saying Wells should be playing everyday or that he will be a star. Heck, I wish we still had Doug Fister and the trade for Wells et all never happened...

I know they are going to compete in spring and the team isn't going to cut Bay now. But if they did, I would be fine with that!

5. By: Galway on 02-20-2013 09:52:09
If Bay has issues from the concussions as theorised it will be obvious right away he doesn't have it anymore. As bad as things were in NY he was a model of work ethic and everyone there had nothing but praise for his work and atitude. His swing really hasn't been the problem, he just seemed to be guessing. If it isn't the concussion he will contribute and deserves a look. Unfortunately I think it is and think he will be out of baseball soon. Hope not, was a great guy in NY despite having reason to be down. I see nothing wrong with letting them compete.

6. By: Wishhiker on 02-20-2013 14:05:42
Bay had a concussion with balance and vision symptoms which is considered to be the longest recovery time among concussion symptoms. Wells was reported to have had "vertigo like symptoms" (balance and vision symptoms) after being hit in the face with a pitch. I know it's never been reported as such, but it seems to me Wells has been suffering from the same concussion symptoms as Bay. Who is better dealing with long term concussion issues or most recovered is hard to say but that seems to be the battle.

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