| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 11-23-2012 |
The Seattle Mariners have been linked to a handful of hitters this month, including Josh Hamilton, Cody Ross and Mike Napoli. Friday, another handful were linked to the M's from various sources. A few just as a suggestion, another by way of yours truly, right here, right now, with the assistance of Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports and Dave Schoenfield of ESPN.com.
Catch up on the latest in the M's rumor mill by clicking here.
Shoenfield, of the SweetSpot Blog, suggested an interesting three-way trade Friday morning that involved the Cleveland Indians, Arizona Diamondbacks and Seattle Mariners.
The Indians are believed to be shopping outfielder Shin-Soo Choo and shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera. The Diamondbacks have reportedly fielded calls on right fielder Justin Upton. The Mariners need offense, specifically in the outfield. The Tribe need young arms, Arizona wants a shortstop or young third baseman. The Mariners have all of the above.
Schoenfield proposes the following:
"Arizona Diamondbacks trade RF Justin Upton and RHP Trevor Bauer and receive SS Asdrubal Cabrera, RHP Vinnie Pestano and OF Michael Saunders
Cleveland Indians trade SS Asdrubal Cabrera, OF Shin-Soo Choo and RHP Vinnie Pestano and receive RHP Trevor Bauer, LHP Danny Hultzen and RHP Hector Noesi
Seattle Mariners trade LHP Danny Hultzen, OF Michael Saunders and RHP Hector Noesi and receive RF Justin Upton and OF Shin-Soo Choo"
For the D-backs to give up Bauer and Upton, I think they'll need more in return than Cabrera, Pestano and Saunders, and that extra player or two may have to come from the Mariners.
Perhaps on top of adding Cabrera, who is signed for the next two years at $20.5 million, GM Kevin Towers will require a third base option, too, or even a younger, long-term answer at one of the two positions -- i.e., a prospect.
From the M's perspective, parting with Hultzen, Noesi and Saunders to add a year of Choo at about $9 million and Upton for the next three at $38.5 million total is a no-brainer. For me, even tossing in shortstop prospect Brad Miller would be worth it.
Bauer has fallen out of favor with the Snakes, but I can't imagine he's "thrown" into a deal, just so the club can rid themselves of the player.
The Indians, in the above scenario, do pretty well, though they'd be without a shortstop on their entire roster. Perhaps Brendan Ryan is a fit for them for the next year or two while Francisco Lindor works his way to the big leagues.
Hultzen could be replaced by James Paxton, too, and Noesi could be replaced by an arm such as Shawn Kelley, Anthony Fernandez or Blake Beavan. At that point, still a value for the Mariners.
Schoenfield's suggestion provides a solution to each of the three clubs' needs and does it well with the one possible exception of the Diamondbacks -- which I've shown above is easily fixable without breaking the deal part for the Mariners.
It's just a hypothetical, but a realistic one.
The M's and Royals
One team-to-team link reported on more than one occasion is the Kansas City Royals and Seattle Mariners. It makes so much sense that Twitter followers have suggested the potential match since this time last offseason, and it still makes a lot of sense.
The Royals need starting pitching and the M's have that. The problem, however, has been that GM Dayton Moore wanted proven talent and that isn't something the Mariners have to spare in terms of the rotation.
In the past three weeks or so, the Royals have traded for right-hander Ervin Santana and signed Jeremy Guthrie to a three-year deal, perhaps pushing them out of the market for pricey free agents and into the market for long-term assistance, instead.
The Royals' minor league pitching depth was once great, but stagnated development and some injuries have weakened that depth immensely. Moore, tweeted EPSN.com's Jayson Stark Tuesday, isn't done adding starting pitching and is more likely to go young than for a third veteran addition. Stark also added, via Twitter, that the Royals do not want to trade a big leaguer to get that young starting pitcher and that it "sounds like they want to do prospect for prospect."
First thought, of course, is Wil Myers, the consensus players of the year in the minors and perhaps the best offensive prospect in baseball. Friday night, Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports reported that the Royals are shopping Myers in attempt to complete their pitching search.
Judging by Stark's tweets, it seems the Royals do not want to move any of their core big leaguers -- Alex Gordo, Billy Butler, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas -- but Passan writes that one of those four "can be had at the right price."
I don't believe Gordon would come cheap and I do not believe he can be had for a pitching prospect. Two, maybe, but a prospect does not help the Royals in 2013, and that appears to be the plan.
Myers, on the other hand, may not be enough to land a proven major league arm that fits as a "frontline" type, as Passan described it, so Myers for a package based on a pitching prospect may be the best fit.
Taijuan Walker may be terrific match.
There is one issue I have with such a deal and it has little to nothing to do with the players involved or the value. The Mariners are looking to do exactly what the Royals are for 2013 -- become more competitive and have meaningful games into September, if not longer.
Adding Myers -- a player with zero experience producing at the major-league level -- may not qualify as one of the two bats the M's need to add this offseason, yet it would require the sacrifice of perhaps their No. 1 trade asset.
I'm not saying I wouldn't do it -- I'd strongly consider it and it may come down to some intangible data collected by scouts and other resources on both players -- but I'd have to have another bat in the bag and the available resources
to add a third. And by available I mean without gutting the farm system to do it.
Notes
The Mariners' discussions with Mike Napoli may indeed be about a four-year deal -- something it appears the Red Sox aren't willing to do, at least not yet -- and in the end I cannot see the M's going that deep, either.
While there is certainly some substance to the report that the two sides will talk or already have, Napoli could be using the M's to get the best deal he can from the Sox, or perhaps a third club.
The Mariners, on the flip side, could simply be doing their due diligence with Napoli. I don't know how far along the negotiations are, or if there have been any significant exchanges as of Friday night ... The M's may have an opportunity to upgrade in center field this offseason without it taking a large chunk out of their available payroll -- which lies somewhere around $20 million at minimum after the signings of Oliver Perez and Hisashi Iwakuma.
Franklin Gutierrez is set to earn more than $7 million in 2013 and may be more valuable to the Mariners playing elsewhere if the club can move him without including a large percentage of cash. Several clubs are out shopping for centerfielders, including the Washington Nationals, Texas Rangers, San Francisco Giants, Philadelphia Phillies and Cincinnati Reds. That's five teams.
The number of higher-end free agents that could fill those holes stops at four -- Shane Victorino, Angel Pagan, Michael Bourn and B.J. Upton -- suggesting trade-available centerfielders such as Gutierrez, Coco Crisp and Denard Span could become quite valuable if the price is not right for those clubs on those free agents, and once the music stops and at least one club is still without an answer.
If the M's were to move Gutierrez and most of his salary, the club adds another chunk of available cash to spend on acquiring players. If worse comes to worse, Saunders would likely open the season as the starter in center, but the M's could make a play for Span, or even Pagan or Crisp, which would, preferable and ideally, come on top of whatever offensive upgrades GM Jack Zduriencik can muster.
Final AFL Notes
Nick Franklin, James Paxton, Stefen Romero and Mike Zunino all fared well in the desert during the Arizona Fall League that concluded earlier this week. The Peoria Javelinas won the league title thanks to Zunino's 3-hit effort in the championship game.
Here are some scout quotes on each of the four.
On Franklin
"I see limitations, I really do," said one AL club's special assistant, "but they all show up after I have written him in as a major-league player with solid hitting skills and some unexpected gap-plus power. He didn't play short here, but I saw him during the summer and there's still a chance he can manage there. He looked comfortable at second base. Needs to get stronger from chest to calves, but the kid can play."
"There's nothing perfect about the profile," added the same club's senior pro scout, "but this is the kind of player that grows on you the more you see him. The right-handed swing and approach is concerning, but he's a hitter from the left side."
On Romero
"He's like Kyle Seager in a way," explained one talent eye for an NL East club. "He does a little more then you expect and he does it without flare, he just gets results. I don't know if he can play third, I'd need to see more of him there, but if he can he's a pretty solid young player that might be ready to go next year. He doesn't try to do too much and looked pretty good against good velocity -- that's always a plus."
On Paxton
"No. 2 stuff with No. 5 control," the pro scout opined on the M's left-hander. "when he was fluid and repeating (his delivery), he was the best starter here. It just didn't last in a couple of his outings. I saw a 5 curveball (50 on the 20-80) mostly, but he spun good number that were well above average."
On Zunino
NL Special Consultant: "Why wasn't he the No. 1 pick, again?"
sizing-up-the-m\'s-targets
Comments
The following 29 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: Shawnuel on 11-23-2012 21:19:40 Jason, what, if anything, did your contacts have to say about Carson Smith? |
| 2. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-23-2012 21:22:48 He really struggled with FB command. Same with Bawcom. Kind of on and off. Very small sample with relievers, though. Raw stuff for both suggest 7th inning, maybe 8th, but have some cleaning up to do. |
| 3. By: sexymarinersfan on 11-23-2012 21:35:18 Shawnuel beat me to it. JAC, would you go to 4-years with Napoli? And why do you believe they are even inquiring on him in the first place? I can understand that he serves as an insurance policy to Justin Smoak. However Napoli wants to catch. I can't see him getting much time behind the dish when Zunino finally arrives. Lastly if KC were to offer Wil Myers and they wanted to start with Taijuan Walker, in your best opinion, what would it take to get that done? Would you expect more change from KC OR SEA giving more change to finalize something like that? |
| 4. By: agcmmgdh on 11-23-2012 21:35:49 Jason, do you think a trade for Wil Myers would be just Walker, or would the M's have to include more. |
| 5. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-23-2012 21:40:51 re: Myers No idea... I don't even know if the two teams have has such discussions at this point. Butler was discussed, the two teams have certainly talked... re: Napoli I would not even go 3 guaranteed. Not a big fan. |
| 6. By: agcmmgdh on 11-23-2012 21:44:08 Sorry to post the same question. #3 wasn't up yet when I posted mine. |
| 7. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-23-2012 21:57:14 No worries. I didn't answer twice out laziness, not efficiency. ;) |
| 8. By: k0o56 on 11-23-2012 23:06:43 Honest ignorance here - could someone please explain to me the clamor behind Pagan? I'd just to know what I'm not seeing/understanding. He seems like a player who played well in his contract year which, to me, foreshadows buyer's remorse (Gary Matthews Jr?). I'm not all too familiar with him other than his playoff performance. |
| 9. By: agcmmgdh on 11-23-2012 23:30:43 Not saying you have to agree or disagree, but Dave Cameron wrote an article over at fangraphs that I think pretty much sums up why people are high on him. Check it out if you want to.... http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-most-underrated-player-in-baseball-2/ |
| 10. By: short on 11-23-2012 23:32:06 On the hypothetical 3-way deal to land Choo and Upton I'm just not seeing enough excess value above salary for those players to be worth the proposed players the M's would give up. Choo was worth maybe a couple million more last year than he'd earn next year. With Upton you have to assume he's the 6 win player from 2011 and not the 2.5 win player from this year. His career road stats of 90 wRC+ make it really clear that he's a creature of his home hitting-friendly environment. For his whole career he's been a below-league-average hitter on the road. That's a huge risk to take for $38.5 million plus prospects. According to Fangraphs Michael Saunders was worth only .2 wins less than Upton in 2012. Saunders is unlikely to put up 6 WAR, but there's no reason to believe Upton will outside the stadium in Phoenix. I don't think the M's have enough talent to deal players other than relievers or middle infielders. We have one great and two decent pitchers in the rotation right now. Odds are only one of the "big three" makes the majors as a quality starter. We really shouldn't deal any of them. I'd much rather see the team improved by spending money that isn't mine. |
| 11. By: Gibbo on 11-24-2012 00:14:18 i like the idea of moving a prospect swap for Myers, we deal from strength and could still add other pieces without gutting the farm too. |
| 12. By: amac360 on 11-24-2012 00:37:18 I really dont like the idea of a Choo rental for just one year. How about sending Choo to Zona and not including Saunders? Or have the Tribe keep Choo, and add in Brad Miller or Stephen Romero to get Bauer to come to us... |
| 13. By: dewey on 11-24-2012 06:51:47 Im with you on Napoli yes 20 plus HR but poor defense and no real position C/1B/DH and 4 years would be a huge mistake 2might be the right number but when Zunino comes in late 13 and Montero is your DH then what? Unless they our unloading Smoak? Jason have you ever seen Myers ? Is he the cats meow or just another prospect? |
| 14. By: sexymarinersfan on 11-24-2012 08:29:30 I read a scouting report on him that said he used to be a catcher and that he could basically play any position well. Apparently the Royals fell in love with his bat like the Nationals did with Harper, so they decided to accelerate his readiness to the bigs by converting him to becoming an OF. |
| 15. By: titans12 on 11-24-2012 08:59:30 The 3 way deal is very interesting. The Indians make out the best but Arizona would not make that deal without more talent included.Each team would have to kick in more talent. Also we are on Uptons no trade list. |
| 16. By: marinerforever on 11-24-2012 09:07:25 Wow talk about a no brainer that's a slamdunk yes on the three way trade So trade saunders hultzen and receive upton and choo even if u have to add a couple pieces to the trade as long as it isn't franklin or zunnino make it happen Then goto the royals and off either paxton or walker plus shawn kelly and casper wells for will myers Then pony up to go get zack grenkie Have a rotation Felix Grenkie Vargas Iwakuna Erasmo Plus you would still have some depth with brandon mauer and either paxton or walker Your lineup Choo Ackley Montero Upton Seager Smoak Guti Your catcher Brandon ryan |
| 17. By: Paul Martin on 11-24-2012 09:13:26 Jason, I agree with you on Napoli. If the M's don't sign him, Swisher, or Hamilton, where do they spend their $$$??? I am all for signing a pitcher (Greinke) and trading for a bat or two... |
| 18. By: jazon_24 on 11-24-2012 09:22:48 Would we have a better deal (for the Royals) if we swap Hultzen for Walker? I know that Walker has a higher upside, but Hultzen seems like the lower risk and is probably 3 months to a year closer to the major leagues. It seems to me that the Royals would prefer the guy that is closer to major league ready. |
| 19. By: Edman on 11-24-2012 09:38:21 In regard to Free Agents in general, if you are willing to overpay in some regard, then just stick to a rebuilding plan internally. Teams seldom sign a contract that isn't an overpay. Play, or pretend. If you never bet, you can never win. |
| 20. By: maqman on 11-24-2012 10:28:52 Don't like the three-way deal. Choo is a one season rental, he's a Boras client. Upton will play way worse in Safeco compared to Arizona. Don't like the Napoli deal either, for all the reasons Jason stated. We just cut loose one four year bad contract, why consider another for a guy we don't need? Meyer could be doable and worthwhile. I'd offer Hultzen, Noesi and one of Pryor or Capps. You could swap out Beavan for Noesi if you had to. |
| 21. By: d2ret on 11-24-2012 13:03:08 Paxton, Franklin, Romero, Guttierez and Pryor for Upton, Bauer |
| 22. By: d2ret on 11-24-2012 13:10:07 If the character issues are true, its a shame. Please stay away Z. An Upton/Bauer deal looks good on paper, for both sides (except people dont seem to accept Franklin as a SS) |
| 23. By: d2ret on 11-24-2012 13:23:47 A big shakeup deal is in line. We've got the proper depth to do it. Especially @ 2nd and catcher (Jaso, Marder, Hicks) |
| 24. By: rjfrik on 11-24-2012 22:40:54 If the M's sign Napoli to anything more then a 1 year contract I think I just might be done with them for a bit. JZ already screwed the pooch by not extending Beltre and making Figgins as his "big" signing. If he goes out and essentially overpays for the next Figgins I'm done. I can't deal with that ineptitude. Living in LA the Dodgers keep rubbing off on me more and more as each year goes by. I grew up with the M's and I'm loyal but I'm not sure I can deal with a front office that would target Mike Napoli as their savior. He shouldn't even be in the realm of possibility and the damn M's are having meetings with him? Ugh |
| 25. By: slamcactus on 11-25-2012 11:30:17 I've mentioned this in another thread, but what makes you think any (reasonable) amount of money would have kept Beltre in Seattle? He made exactly the right move for his career - he moved from a park that suppressed right-handed offense so much that he was considered one of the great busts of the decade to one that helped him produce at an elite level, and then signed a lucrative contract somewhere else where he could succeed without trying to re-invent his swing and approach. |
| 26. By: rjfrik on 11-25-2012 13:31:20 |
| 27. By: rjfrik on 11-25-2012 13:33:19 Slam, They never even offered him. They never even tried a tender. Why? If we would have at least offered the guy a tender we would have received compensation in the draft (sox 1st round pick) for losing him in FA. Bottom line is we should have at least showed interest in my opinion. |
| 28. By: slamcactus on 11-25-2012 14:44:11 So one of JZ's biggest mistakes, according to you, is not making a futile offer to a player whose agent said early, often, and very publicly that he was looking for a 1-year contract with a team that plays in a hitters' park. Huh. |
| 29. By: slamcactus on 11-25-2012 14:46:43 Also, they offered Beltre arbitration. He was a type-B free agent, and the team got a compensation pick out of it. That pick turned into Taijuan Walker. |
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