| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 10-20-2009 |
Yusei Kikuchi is an 18-year-old left-hander in Japan. He's considered the top draft prospect and will go No. 1 overall if he doesn't bolt for the United States and sign with a Major League club.Kikuchi is drawing interest from the Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers, Cleveland Indians, San Francisco Giants, both New York teams and the Seattle Mariners. Monday and Tuesday, Kikuchi's adviser will meet with those teams to discuss his options and possibly negotiate a contract.
Kikuchi does not have to be posted, so it's a straight contract negotiation scenario. But let's take a look at what the phenom brings to the table.
I asked, through two area scouts on the west coast, two international scouts that have scoured Japan for years, what they saw in the southpaw, and combining to the two reports, this is what I came up with.
Kikuchi stands about 6 feet tall and weighs in at 180 pounds and offers a slow slurvy breaking ball to compliment a fastball that has been clocked as high as the mid-90s. He typically works at 86-91, however, dialing it up when he needs to, and throwing from a high three-quarters slot.
His breaking ball sits at 70-73 mph with two-plane break, and he's been known to throw a cutter-slider in the 74-76 mph range as well. He changes planes regularly, and has even thrown the ephus pitch on occasion. He's added a variation of his breaking ball this season, one that appears to be more of a curve ball than the other, with more depth and more of a downward break than the slider-like break of the other pitch.
Both are out pitches for him at the prep level, and he will pitch inside with the better of his fastballs.
His command holds a present grade of a 45 with the potential to be a plus area for him. His delivery is consistent, repeated and clean, though one of the scouts wondered about the business at the back of his arm action. Nothing major, however.
There are times when he battles command problems with the breaking balls, and that usually happens when he's unintentionally dropping his arm down too far and the pitch backs up on him.
He has great drop-and-drive like action to his mechanics, is very adept at keeping his front shoulder closed enough to not give away pitches, but he could stand to work on more of an angle to hide the ball longer and allow his body to pull his arm through. This is where his long-term velocity will be determined.
If he makes that kind of adjustment, he can consistently sit in the 91-94 mph range, touching 95-96. Without it, his arm is doing a little too much of the work. He does follow through well, though, and is a confident, smart pitcher with as much to offer as most prep pitchers in the states in any given draft.
The only thing missing is a changeup, and the experience of pitching through a lot of adversity -- and with runners on base.
If Kikuchi were in the 2009 MLB Draft, he would have been a high-round talent probably ranking somewhere behind fellow prep arms Tyler Matzek, Zack Wheeler, Shelby Miller, Jacob Turner and Matt Purke and right there with Chad James, Matt Hobgood and Tyler Skaggs.
Tool Box
Pitch/Present/Ceiling
Fastball 50/55
Slider 50/55
Curveball 45/55
Delivery 50/55
Control 50/55
Command 45/55
MLB Comp: If Kikuchi reaches his peak -- Jon Lester
I'd recommend the M's getting in heavily on Kikuchi, but he's not worth the kind of money it took to get Stephen Strasburg signed, and rumor has it that's what he and his adviser's are looking for. That's a joke to me, but we'll see. Strasburg wasn't a free agent. When was the last time an 18-year-old this talented was a free agent?
scouting-report:-yusei-kikuchi,-lhp
Comments
The following 22 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: baseballman on 10-20-2009 01:06:44 Good stuff JAC. He looks like quite the interesting prospect. Would you be disappointed if the Ms landed this kid for strasberg money? How would this work though? Sign him to an extremely large minor league deal? Since hes 18, and prob no where near ML ready, how would a contract and his stay in the minors work out? thanks |
| 2. By: Jason A. Churchill on 10-20-2009 01:17:31 I would be wondering why they aren't throwing that kind of money into better investments. Felix, for one, the offense, drafting someone other than Steve Baron and Nick Franklin... |
| 3. By: Plaws on 10-20-2009 03:07:25 Ouch...Baron, Franklin. Nice. This is the best writeup I've read on Kikuchi. Thanks. I'm not going to get too excited either way, just yet. I don't have a clue what the M's chances of getting him are, but he sounds like just the kind of pitcher the M's could use coming up. My guess is that since teams like the Yankees and Red Sox don't expect to have many opportunities to draft a pitcher like this he's worth more to them than most teams. Then again since I'm hoping the M's are at least headed to the same area of draft rounds I'm not sure their thinking wouldn't be the same. I don't like the idea of throwing tons of money at any 18 year old. I'd like to see more in the M's minors but I don't think this is the right way if it's going to cost more than the team spent on all other international signings. Likely it's not the M's with so many other suitors, but the same could be said forall of the others. My guess is it's another team and I feel like predicting $12M. |
| 4. By: Jason A. Churchill on 10-20-2009 03:11:17 I'd let someone else grossly overpay for him. If he works out for them, great, but Seattle isn't in the position to spend millions on an 18-year-old Japanese pitchers that they know far less about and is far more risky than half the prep arms in this past year's draft that they wouldn't go NEAR with a ten foot pole. |
| 5. By: Plaws on 10-20-2009 05:14:02 I was thinking that too on knowing more about picks. I wanted to put a value on the diferences they signed for but didn't know how to value the ability to draft them. Don't they usually even know more on international players they sign for $3M or less? I know some of them are watched for years but not sure how frequent that is or how long most of them are watched. |
| 6. By: Willmore on 10-20-2009 10:26:12 What's the ownership been up to lately? Could Yamauchi loosen the purse strings for a japanese kid? |
| 7. By: Jason A. Churchill on 10-20-2009 10:59:49 Yamauchi isn't the owner anymore and while he still has some pull because of the NOA tie-in, he's not directly affiliated with the Seattle Mariners. Sure, he could go to the NOA group and say "hey, here's $10 million, go get Kikuchi," but he's not going to do that -- the Johjima contract did not come FROM Yamauchi, it was done to appease Yamauchi. And if NOA wants to spend, spend on provent talent, or at least more proven than a Japanese high schooler. I'd like to see what Jack can do with a $120 million payroll. Wouldn't you? |
| 8. By: Willmore on 10-20-2009 11:31:53 Oh yeah, I forgot about that. Remind me, why does a corporation have any desire of owning a professional sports franchise, beyond the profit/team value aspect? |
| 9. By: SMariners11 on 10-20-2009 13:30:18 Jason, I was curious if you have been able to see USSMariner's Dave Cameron's take on what the Mariners should do in the offseason...What are your thoughts on it? |
| 10. By: marinerseric on 10-20-2009 14:47:47 I got the flu bug and I hope I survive till at least 2012 where who knows what could happen. But, with Johjima leaving how much is our current payroll and how much is our max budget this winter. |
| 11. By: Jason A. Churchill on 10-20-2009 15:33:32 SMariners11, I have not. But it's clear what the Mariners should do. Add offense without committing long-term to the FAs out there and without significantly hurting the defense, lock up Felix if they can and fill holes with low-risk, medium to high reward free agents and undervalued talent. eric, The M's haven't said -- and won't -- what their budget is, because if the M's were at $100 mil and the Cards offered Albert Pujols for the entire farm system, the club would bust payroll in a heartbeat. I think you know what I mean by that. The club does seem to prefer to stay around 95 again, but they'll go over if the deals make sense. They aren't being cheap, they are being smart. Jack can spend money if he's convinced it makes long-term sense. Ballparking it, with Joh's money, I think they will have between 25 and 35 million to add to payroll outside the guaranteed commitments. But a good chunk of that is going to go to Felix, whether it's an extension or arbitration. |
| 12. By: Jason A. Churchill on 10-20-2009 15:39:32 Ok, now I've seen it and I can tell you. Individually, most of those ideas/trades could happen, but there's ZERO chance than any three of them will, and the White Sox aren't trading Danks for that awful package. He's not making tons of money, and the Sox have Getz, Beckham and Ramirez on the infield. The only place for Lopez to play would be first base, and the White Sox have internal options better than that. That's just not enough for Danks. Hudson, I wouldn't give $16 million guaranteed to, and the M's have to wait out the Brewers on Hardy. He's going to cost them upwards of 5.5 or 6 mil in arbitration. Escobar is ready and Weeks is returning to play 2B. Milwaukee is not in a position to be choosy after the year Hardy had in '09 and there's a chance he's non-tendered. I do think Jack would like get something like Hardy for Morrow, however. That's a good team Dave puts out there, but I bet he'd admit it's unrealistic in the end. Because it is. |
| 13. By: SMariners11 on 10-20-2009 17:10:42 Ya, I laughed at the Jose Lopez deal. I am a big Beckham fan. Can you see Figgins in a White Sox uniform next season or does that make too much sense for Kenny Williams? |
| 14. By: Jason A. Churchill on 10-20-2009 17:34:05 I guess I can see it, as Williams isn't too smart sometimes, but I think someone else overpays for Figgins, not the White Sox. |
| 15. By: stickball on 10-20-2009 20:23:15 Jason, How is Triunfel doing? When do you think he will play in an AFL game? |
| 16. By: Jason A. Churchill on 10-20-2009 21:01:07 One Mariners trainier down here said it's possible Triunfel doesn't play at all, but he's fine, they just don't want to take any chances. Any soreness and swelling is going to be taken very seriously, as is any discomfort Triunfel feels in the foot and ankle area. He'll get plenty of coaching this fall and winter, the AFL isn't important for him. |
| 17. By: rjfrik on 10-20-2009 21:02:05 Is anyone else watching the worst umped game in the history of playoff baseball tonight? I mean 3 of the worst calls ever. So weird. On a side note. I'm so glad Jack decided not to draft Tanner Scheppers instead of Baron or Franklin! I mean have you seen what Tanner is doing in the AFL? I'm so glad we didn't pull the trigger. NOT!!!! Way to pass up on a sure fire top of the rotation pitcher who is killing the AFL for two guys that will never make a major league club. Just dumb |
| 18. By: Uncle Al on 10-20-2009 21:24:03 #11 It looks like your estimate of 25 to 35 million to add to payroll outside the guaranteed commitments to date is very close to $28M if you have a $95M budget. |
| 19. By: Jason A. Churchill on 10-20-2009 21:53:54 Uncle Al... Ok... did someone say something about 28 million? rjfrik, I wouldn't say Franklin nor Baron will never make a big-league club... Baron has a long ways to go with the bat but he might turn out to be so good defensively that all he has to do to be a regular is be an average bat for the position. Franklin certainly has enough raw ability to play in the big leagues, not sure it's at shortstop yet, but nothing jumps out to tell me no right now. I question his bat -- power wise, anyway. And Scheppers comes with his own issues. That shoulder could go at any moment, really. Not that it will, but with pitchers who DONT have any history of unclean shoulder MRIs, it's a crap shoot, so dealing with one who does? Having said that, the problem isn't that they took Franklin over Scheppers or Baron over Scheppers. It's that they took BOTH of them over Scheppers, Davidson, Brothers, Joseph, Stassi, Bailey... They could have had Franklin AND Scheppers, or Brothers AND Scheppers, or Brothers AND Davidson. I'm not even sure Franklin was the best prep SS on the board at 27 -- Chris Owings is pretty good. But that's in the past, now all I'm worried about is Baron's bat developing and Franklin sticking at SS for the next 10 years. |
| 20. By: Uncle Al on 10-20-2009 22:56:10 #19 I did and that already includes estimates for Hernandez at $10M, Gutierrez and Aardsma at $2.5M, and Lowe and Morrow at $1M. Dave at USSM spends $93.4M on his roster which is constructed for 2010, which is a fairly good indication that Zduriencik should have enough to work with this year in the off season. It will be interesting to see how much of the Farm he will be willing to give up and I suspect it won't be much. Watching what develops in the Farm system between now and the next Draft has got to be interesting to say the least. |
| 21. By: Jason A. Churchill on 10-20-2009 23:18:24 If the right players were available, I'd trade the entire farm just about. Ackley can't be traded and I think it'd be selling low on Triunfel, but if it got me John Danks, Saunders and Moore are on the table. |
| 22. By: pwhit44 on 10-22-2009 03:37:03 Hey Jason, While we're on the topic of unlikely-to-impossible trades, how attached are the Rangers to Josh Hamilton, and would they take pitching for him? What about a package starting with Morrow and Saunders, and including other minor leaguers. Even Triunfel. I'm trying to solve the offense in one crazy move. An outfield of Hamilton-Gutierrez-Ichiro would certainly speed things along, and continue the stellar defense. I'm likely nuts. If Hamilton was on the market, teams would be going absolutely bonkers, am I right? Still, Morrow-Saunders-Triunfel is a pretty darn attractive package. |
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