| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 11-29-2010 |
Many have inquired about the Rule 5 Draft and whether any of the available players make sense for the Seattle Mariners, who have the No. 2 overall pick.
My general response is "not really." But because 100-loss clubs can't pass on even the smallest of upgrades, let's take a closer look.
Pitchers
RHP Wynn Pelzer, LHP Doug Arguello, RHP Danuel Turpin, RHP Fu-Te Ni, RHP Brett Sinkbeil, RHP Dallas Buck, RHP Austin Bibens-Dirkx, LHP Clay Zavada, RHP Adam Miller and LHP Nick Schmidt are arms I'd consider.
All are likely relievers only except Arguello and Sinkbeil, and Ni and Zavada have big-league experience. Arguello lacks stuff -- in other words, he's a No. 5 starter -- but he throws strikes and is a left-handed.
Schmidt has been starting but if he's chosen in the draft he's likely going to pitch out of the bullpen where most scouts saw him landing since he was an amateur. Bibens-Dirkz has reinvented himself and is being considered by at least three clubs including an AL West rival. He still drops down on occasion, but sits in the 89-92 mph range from a 3/4 slot.
The M's are without a lot of lefty options out of the bullpen, so Zavada could be an easy fit. Adam Miller, once a top prospect, can't stay healthy, but that may be an easy way to hide him -- on the disabled list. But he's not what he once was as the injuries have taken a toll on him.
None of these arms are clear cut upgrades to what is already in the system, but they could be viewed as big-league ready whereas relief prospects such as Anthony Varvaro and Edward Paredes may need more time in the minors.
Bats
1B/DH Beau Mills, 2B/SS Tyler Greene, 2B Kevin Melillo, OF Wilkin Ramirez.
As you can see there aren't a lot of position players that I like among the availables.
Mills is an all-bat no-field prospect that hasn't hit for enough power to get out of Double-A by age 24, but he the raw power is there and his approach is sound. He just has what Jerry Springer guests would call a wholly (hole-y) swing, and he's not a good first baseman.
Ramirez was once a Top-10 prospect in Detroit's system and has power, but he's probably a left fielder with a center-field bat, at best. If he could make consistent contact, things would change. There is some doubt as to whether Ramirez is available, however. One club tells me he is, one says he is not. I cannot get confirmation from the Braves.
Melillo, 28 now, may be the second best option outside Greene to serve as a useful player. He draws walks, hits for a little power and isn't awful at second base. He's also played some third base and outfield in short stints, and bats left-handed like Mills.
One addition could be Max St. Pierre, a catcher in the Tigers' system, but like Ramirez may have qualified for free agency instead.
The M's most likely to be considered are LHP Nick Hill and infielder Matt Lawson.
Arbitration possibilities
The free agent market is about to grow, and it could grow significantly this week when clubs decide whether or not to tender offers to arbitration-eligible players.
I have identified a select group that could be non-tendered, some of which may interest the Mariners.
Outfielders
Ryan Church, Matt Diaz, Reggie Willits, Jeremy Hermida, Travis Buck, Conor Jackson, Gabe Gross, Fred Lewis.
Church made $1.5 million last season and could get a raise into the $3 million range which could prove to be too costly for the Diamondbacks, who have limited funds and need pitching desperately.
Diaz, who earned $2.55 million last season, could be the odd-man out after the Braves acquired Dan Uggla earlier this month, pushing Martin Prado to the outfield. A raise for Diaz likely puts him well over $3 million for 2011, quite a bit for an extra outfielder.
Willits is not likely to get much more than $1 million bucks, so his salary can easily be absorbed by the Halos, but they may need every penny to add offense and relief help this winter, especially with Peter Bourjos, a better version of Willits, expected to start in center.
Hermida and Buck have both shown flashes of being capable hitters, but both have battled development stagnation and a few injuries. Hermida is a little like Justin Smoak in that he has the right approach, though Hermida lacks the power swing.
Jackson is likely to be tendered by Oakland, but if he's not there are clubs that like his makeup and believe in his bat. Gross is an interesting bench option in the Jonny Gomes mold, sans some of the power, and Lewis is an ideal fourth outfielder who may no longer fit in Toronto with Travis Snider, Vernon Wells, Jose Bautista and Rajai Davis expected to play regularly.
Pitching
RHP Bobby Jenks, RHP Joel Zumaya, RHP Matt Lindstrom, LHP George Sherrill, RHP Boof Bonser, LHP J.P. Howell.
Jenks and Sherrill are likely candidates to be non-tendered. Jenks' $7.5 million salary from 2010 suggests a potential $9-10 million number for '11, while Sherrill, despite an awful season with the Dodgers, could get well over $5 million.
The White Sox are expected to shop Jenks, but Sherrill may be untradeable. One scout and former major-league pitcher is all over Sherrill if he is made available. "I still see value there, and I think some tinkering can fix him right up."
Lindstrom will not likely be non-tendered but he could be the subject of trade rumors between now and the start of the regular season, as he could make up to $3 million or so in 2011.
Bonser is a reclamation project and could actually start if his arm is sound, while Howell could serve as a valuable southpaw available for more than one role in relief.
Zumaya, I think, is staying put in Detroit. He made just $915,000 in 2010 and is coming off an injury-marred 2010. He likely stands to get a raise, but probably not a large one, and the upside that is he gives the Tigers 60-75 high-leverage innings to backup Jose Valverde and Joaquin Benoit.
Infielders
SS J.J. Hardy, SS Jason Bartlett, 2B Ryan Theriot, 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff.
Hardy is reportedly going to be tendered an offer by the Twins despite Tsuyoshi Nishioka landing in Minnesota via the posting system. If the Twins tender Hardy and Orlando Hudson accepts the club's arby offer, they will either have to convince one of the three to play third base or trade one of them. Hardy is the one generating tons of interest right now, including from San Francisco.
If he becomes a free agent, Seattle could be interested, as we have speculated for months. Same goes for Bartlett, as the Rays can't afford to pay him his due raise from the $4 million he made in '10 and have Reid Brignac ready to play regularly.
Theriot is a stop-gap only -- or a reserve -- but could fit if the club is convinced Dustin Ackley needs 2-3 months in Triple-A. Kouzmanoff is expendable in Oakland with Edwin Encarnacio in town and the A's apparent interest in both Mark Reynolds and Adrian Beltre.
Kouz made $3.1 million last season and could get as much as $5 million via arbitration, probably too rich for the Athletics.
Catchers
Russell Martin, Dioner Navarro.
Martin and his declining skills made $5.05 million in 2010 and stand to push that over $6 million and as high as $7 million this winter in year two of arbitration. Not many teams are likely to be willing to trade for that kind of salary, despite the lack of catching options.
For the Dodgers to non-tender Martin, however, they'll have to convince themselves that A.J. Ellis can do the job, or they better get active in the free agent market for the likes of Miguel Olivo, Bengie Molina, A.J. Pierzynski or Yorvit Torrealba.
Navarro, who made $2.1 million last year, may be ideal for Seattle since he bats left-handed and has experience. The Rays have John Jaso back in 2011 and Kelly Shoppach is under contract for $3 million, spelling the end of Navarro in Tampa.
But Seattle wouldn't be the only club interested, that is for sure.
Seattle's own
David Aardsma is likely to increase his salary from $2.75 million in 2010 to something between $4-5 million for next year. It's not a prohibitive salary to pay a closer, which may make him a hot commodity come the winter meetings.
Brandon League made just over a million bucks last season, and is probably headed for a $2-2.5 million salary in '11, perhaps a little more.
Jason Vargas figures to triple his $412,500 salary from a year ago, maybe more. Lefty Ryan Rowland-Smith is the one non-tender candidate, but the two sides could agree to a reasonable deal. Through the process, RRS could get about a million bucks, but considering his 2010 season in terms of health as well as performance, he may feel he's better off taking a little less to make sure he stays in Seattle where he's comfortable than hitting the free agent market where there is little chance another club gives him more than the $440,000 he made last season.
Minor League staffs
The Mariners ,a href="http://twitter.com/#!/TNTmariners" target=new>announced their minor league staffs Monday, with the big news being that Daren Brown and Alonzo Powell will remain in the organization and return to Triple-A Tacoma. Pitching coach Dwight Bernard, one of my faves, will also be back.
The Double-A Jackson staff will consist of manager Jim Pankovitz, pitching coach Lance Painter (good move) and hitting coach Cory Snyder, who, humorously, is on Cecil Fielder's rookie card.
The High Desert club will be managed by Jose Moreno with pitching coach Tom Dettore moving down from West Tenn (this is not a demotion, it's how it works) and hitting coach Tommy Cruz.
Scott Steinmann will manage the AquaSox with Mike Kinkade the hitting coach. Andrew Lorraine, another fave of mine from back in 2004-05 in Tacoma, takes over as pitching coach.
Eddie Menchaca will manage Clinton with Rich Dorman as his pitching coach and hitting coach Terry Pollreisz.
The club's catching coordinator, Roger Hansen, will return to his former duties as well.
rule-5,-arbitration-and-notes
Comments
The following 27 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: jgstecker on 11-29-2010 15:26:15 My vote goes to Adam Miller. If he's healthy, he should be able to handle mop up duties as he acclimates to the bigs. Like you said, if he's not healthy he can be stashed on the DL. Wilkin Ramirez signed a minor league deal with Atlanta officially today. So he IS eligible in the Rule 5. But anyone could have claimed him on waivers which is a much better option than drafting him in the Rule 5. Same story with Ni, Zavada, and Greene. Any interested team should have just claimed them when they were DFA'd last month. |
| 2. By: Lailoken on 11-29-2010 17:08:00 For Rule 5, none of the position players are very appealing. Hard to see any of them winning a job. There are plenty of interesting arms for the Rule 5 though. Miller, Brigham, Ottavino, Pelzer, & Kilby are all intriguing to me. Best to wait on bringing up the Varvaros & Paredes of the world when the team is out of contention & can trade League or Aardsma, whichever is not traded this offseason Buck & Hermida would look alright in Mariner blue. They'd both face an uphill battle making the squad as a fourth outfielder since a right-handed bat would better complement Saunders & Ichiro. A fifth outfielder would need to have the ability to play CF. Buck, as a local kid, might be more amenable to signing a minor-league contract. Sherrill or Howell would look great in the bullpen. The lack of lefties in the pen has hurt as southpaws have an advantage in Safeco. Sure, it's nice to have more righties to relieve left-handed starting pitchers but even a lefty specialist would have value. I know they're more valuable to teams in contention. Hardy or Bartlett? Yes please. Martin, Navarro, or Zaun? Yes please. Jose Lopez is traded before he is non-tendered then I imagine. How much can the M's reasonably get in exchange? |
| 3. By: Mackie on 11-29-2010 18:11:39 Howell was pretty good with the Rays in 08 and 09. What was his injury this past season... a shoulder? Any word on his health? If he is healthy, it seems he could be a decent bullpen lefty. |
| 4. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-29-2010 19:06:39 Howell had shoulder surgery, yes. Iffy, but he can pitch. |
| 5. By: Lailoken on 11-29-2010 21:03:59 Howell never had much velocity anyways. |
| 6. By: baseballfan on 11-29-2010 21:42:35 I humbly beg to differ with regards to the value of rule V picks - while roster construction makes it hard to keep a position player, for a rebuilding team like Seattle, I would be looking for relief pitching candidates - heck, for 150 grand I would draft 3 pitchers and if 1 makes the team and provides us with a few yrs. of cheap production or allows the team to not rush it's own prospects then I say, money well spent - especially if you look at some of the pitchers that had bullpen spots last yr. |
| 7. By: vertigoman on 11-29-2010 21:51:27 A few years ago, the idea of obtaining Hardy, Church and R. Martin would have been in the mindless rosterbation realm. Hardy would still be a good get just an under the radar move instead of a franchise pillar. Not really sure what happened to Martin. Ryan Church isn't even the most famous Ryan Church anymore. |
| 8. By: PositivePaul on 11-30-2010 00:11:53 WHOAH! I need to get the "FREE AUSTIN!" campaign rolling again. Except this time, he's really available for free! Letting him go was one of the first things Jack & Co. did wrong. I want him back!!!! And, of course, the "Free George Sherrill!" campaign would kick into full swing if he indeed is non-tendered. Still, yeah, he'll be spendy -- too rich for the M's 'pen. I wonder if he'd take a little less to come back to a team and a park that's been comfortable for him. Too bad the M's don't have Kerfy in the fold like they did when GS52 first signed with them... |
| 9. By: shortstop9 on 11-30-2010 06:52:31 We could match up real well in a trade with Tampa for Bartlett and Navarro.They are looking for bullpen help.Looks like the only move we will make is to bring back Branyan.You think last years offense was bad-wait till next year. |
| 10. By: Edman on 11-30-2010 09:14:08 shortstop9, it's not even December yet, and you've decided we're only signing Branyan? As bad as the offense was last year, it would take a major effort to be worse. Nearly every bat in the line-up was below their own league average. Why don't we wait until at least February 1st before we start the death march? |
| 11. By: cheese on 11-30-2010 09:47:36 Could we just draft Clay Zavada's moustache? |
| 12. By: Lailoken on 11-30-2010 11:14:18 shortstop9, I doubt the M's would want to trade for Navarro. He made 2.1 million in a down year. Better to wait for him to get non-tendered. |
| 13. By: maqman on 11-30-2010 11:29:38 I like the Astros LHP Doug Arguello and the Reds Danny Dorn, a AAA left-handed batter that pounds right handed pitchers. Dorn is blocked by Votto at 1B. 319 PA, .302/.398/.545 (.387 BABIP), .409 wOBA. |
| 14. By: StandinPat on 11-30-2010 11:50:05 "You think last years offense was bad-wait till next year" Because it'll be substantially better even without any significant upgrades? Because it was so historically bad that just replacing the 2010 components with in-house options such as Smoak at 1B, Ackley at 2B even Carp at DH will offer a substantial improvement? |
| 15. By: Rick Randall on 11-30-2010 11:57:17 The offense next season should be appreciably better, simply because of the regression toward the mean. Speaking of regression toward the mean....Jason Vargas and Doug Fister. |
| 16. By: slamcactus on 11-30-2010 12:03:34 I'd really like to see the team grab Aneury Rodriguez. I've been a fan since all the way back when I saw him pitch against Everett back in 2006. I think at the very least he could be a quality bullpen arm, and there's still the potential for him to be a solid #4 starter. |
| 17. By: slamcactus on 11-30-2010 12:13:10 "Speaking of regression toward the mean....Jason Vargas and Doug Fister." Vargas posted a 3.95 FIP and 4.82 xFIP. I wouldn't be surprised to see his ERA climb into the low-4's, but I don't see him as a candidate to fall off some kind of cliff. Ditto Fister. We actually saw him regress to the mean. His ERA went up a huge amount from July-Sept, but his FIP was in the exact same range, and for the season he posted a pretty great 3.65 number. It's also not like he got ridiculously lucky in any of the traditional indicators that call for regression: his BABIP was right about what you'd expect (.309), and his strand rate was actually really low (67.7%). Both have virtually no upside beyond what they did last year, but both established that they're legitimate back of the rotation SPs. I don't expect either to fall off a cliff next year. If I put odds on it, I think Vargas is more likely to have a worse 2011, but because of decline, not regression. His K's fell as the year dragged on, and I'm a little worried that his arm didn't survive '10. |
| 18. By: Rick Randall on 11-30-2010 12:23:27 I don't expect them to fall off a cliff, either, slam. I agree with you that they both took steps forward last season, but their season numbers on a whole - and the way they were used as #2 and #3 starters all season - will not hold going forward. 3.95/4.82 for Vargas and 3.65/4.27 for Fister and the low/tumbling K rates for both guys point to a 4/5 tandem, not a 2/3. Everyone knows that type of success is hard to sustain with such low K rates. |
| 19. By: slamcactus on 11-30-2010 12:39:16 I don't think anyone thinks of Vargas and Fister as #2/3 starters moving forward, but I'd change what you wrote to reflect that both Fister and Vargas would be very, very good #4/#5 starting pitchers. #4/#5 is what Vargas/Fister would be on a team with a top flight starting rotation. Fister's FIP put him comfortably among the top-50 SPs in baseball (he tied for #32 last season), and that stat takes strikeouts into account. I don't think he'll maintain that, becuase his 6.4 HR/FB% will almost certainly go up, but i do think he'll be an average starter going forward. Not too many teams have the luxury of a #5 starter who's capable of a 2-2.5 WAR season. Most teams don't get that kind of value out of their #4 starter, either. 73 pitchers produced 2-WAR or better last year. There are 30 teams in baseball. You do the math. The tumbling strikeout rate for Vargas is a legitimate concern. But that's decline, not regression. Regression is what happens when you show the same underlying skills but get worse results. I think Vargas will likely be worse in 2011 than he was in 2010, but because his skills have slipped, not because he didn't have the skills to sustain that kind of success to begin with. On a related note, I think the Ms should trade Vargas. |
| 20. By: jazon_24 on 11-30-2010 13:59:16 On Doug Fister regression, it will be interesting to see whether his walk rate (BB/9) regresses: 2006: 2.48 2007: 2.20 2008: 3.01 2009: 1.40 (includes Minors) 2010: 1.68 |
| 21. By: slamcactus on 11-30-2010 14:14:25 Yeah, that's pretty much his recipe for success. Not walking anyone. Ever. As long as he keeps his confidence in his decidedly mediocre repertoire and avoids the temptation to nibble at the corners, I don't see why he'd lose his control for any reason other than arm troubles, though. Here's hoping. I'm cautiously optimistic about Fister repeating next year, and mildly pessimistic about Vargas. In any case, the team could do a whole hell of a lot worse than these two as their #4/#5 going into the year. |
| 22. By: StandinPat on 11-30-2010 22:28:05 "and the way they were used as #2 and #3 starters all season - will not hold going forward." That's not really a regression issue as much as it's a rotation depth issue. Both Fister and Vargas had FIPs close to their ERAs and while their xFIPs were higher, they may not actually regress towards those numbers as Safeco suppresses HRs. I'd expect them both to perform similarly enough to last year, yeah prob not quite as good, but not enough worse to be damning either. And why do people keep pointing out how Vargas and Fister could regress and never seem to mention the 28 horrendous starts from RRS and Snell we will be replacing? Their combined -2.3 WAR is significantly greater than the .5-1 WAR Fister and Vargas might, might lose in 2011. |
| 23. By: StandinPat on 11-30-2010 22:31:33 Oh, and an additional 13 below replacement level starts from Luke French. |
| 24. By: Rick Randall on 12-01-2010 06:17:41 Pat, your point on depth is exactly what I was getting at. Question is, how do M's improve that depth so that Fister and Vargas can slide into the 3/4 or 4/5 spots? Also, people need to not forget about the insane 3.9 WAR we got out of Cliff Lee's 13 starts. Bottom line, it will be hard for the M's SP to duplicate their 2010 success in 2011. |
| 25. By: Rick Randall on 12-01-2010 06:19:57 But, by the same token, their bullpen was the worst in the AL by WAR (which we must admit isn't the best stat for pitchers), and that likely won't duplicate. Interested to see how it all plays out...hopefully with 1 more SP in the mix. |
| 26. By: slamcactus on 12-01-2010 14:27:35 "And why do people keep pointing out how Vargas and Fister could regress and never seem to mention the 28 horrendous starts from RRS and Snell we will be replacing? Their combined -2.3 WAR is significantly greater than the .5-1 WAR Fister and Vargas might, might lose in 2011." There's a pretty good reason for that, actually. His name is Cliff Lee. The 2011 rotation will likely be worse than the 2010 version, even if Fister and Vargas maintain. |
| 27. By: StandinPat on 12-02-2010 10:33:38 "There's a pretty good reason for that, actually. His name is Cliff Lee." So because we have to replace 13 stellar starts from Cliff Lee, we should just ignore the 41 awful ones from others? I'm sorry, but I just don't buy that. If you want to talk about the possible regression of Vargas and Fister and the loss of Lee, you have to also consider the gains you get from taking out the trash. "The 2011 rotation will likely be worse than the 2010 version, even if Fister and Vargas maintain." Lee was worth an outstanding 3.9 WAR over his time with the Ms, while Snell/RRS/French combined for a -2.5. So you mean to tell me the M's are likely to find two starters, say Pineda and Francis that will combine to give them more than the 1.4 WAR difference? Even with some regression from Felix/Vargs/Fister, if both those pitchers were league average the rotation would show improvement. |
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