| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 10-30-2012 |
The Seattle Mariners finished the 2012 season with 75 victories, an improvement over 2011 of eight wins and 14 better than 2010 when the club hit rock bottom at 61-101 for the season.The season was spent giving young players consistent time to help the organization decide which ones can serve as regulars on a championship caliber team, or at least on a roster that can contend in the American League west. The results of those season turned up a mixed bag. Some showed promise, some struggled -- a few of those on both sides did so unexpectedly.
Let's talk about each core roster member, their 2012 season and how their future looks moving forward.
Last week, I took a look at the pitchers. This week, the bats.
Michael Saunders, OF
Saunders took significant steps forward in 2012, both in terms of his production at the plate and when it comes to taking on an everyday workload and staying in the lineup regularly. He batted just .247 with a .306 on-base percentage, but cut his strikeout rate significantly -- down under 24 percent from 31 percent in 2011 -- and maintained a decent walk rate while compiling 53 extra-base hits and a .432 slugging.
The soon-to-be 26-year-old showed a lot of mettle versus left-handed pitching, too, and posted a .793 OPS on the road. If he can close on such numbers at the new Safeco, Saunders will be an average regular and fit nicely somewhere in the lineup as the club inches toward contention.
In a corner outfield spot, Saunders is a plus defender and he's a value on the bases, too. He fell a day short of Super Two arbitration status so he's not in line for a significant raise just yet, but if the M's believe in him moving forward, he'll get a decent multi-year contract.
Saunders could also attract some trade value, so there's certainly no guarantee he's back in Seattle in 2013.
Dustin Ackley
Ackley was probably the most disappointing position player on the roster in terms of offensive production. Struggling to make consistent contact resulting from poor mechanics and a foot injury the second half of the year all contributed to the .226/.294/.328 triple-slash.
Ackley, despite making some adjustments at the all-star break, still pulled off the ball -- from the hips through his eyes -- which helps explain the .215/.285/.308 mark versus right-handed pitching. He couldn't hit the ball on the outer half, and many times was given a pitch to hit that caught the middle of the zone and all he could do was pop out to the infield.
It's my belief that on top of mechanical fixes, Ackley needs to get stronger over the winter and calm down the swing a little bit. He still walks -- 59 times, or nearly nine percent of his trips to the plate -- and he still shows good overall discipline and strike zone judgment, suggesting there's little reason to sail on his future.
The one bright spot from 2012 was Ackley's defense, where he proved the M's right when they turned the former outfielder and first baseman into an above-average defender at second base. He'll return in '13 with the second base job in hand, but another season like this past one and the red flags will rise through the roof. The dimensions at Safeco aren't likely to help Ackley as much as some other hitters, but better plate coverage and mechanics that result in more contact will.
Franklin Gutierrez, CF
Gutierrez is what he pretty much always has been; a decent hitter, considering where he plays defensively, and a plus glove. The problem is he can't stay on the field and in the final year of his contract he has one last chance to show he's a reliable force or the Mariners will employ a new long-term centerfielder as early as July.
Gutierrez will benefit from the adjustments to the ballpark, since he's a fly ball hitter whose power is to the middle of the field and often ends on the warning track. The gold glover will be back in '13, but the leash is likely to be quite short and the club will probably have more options than they have had in the past year or two.
Casper Wells, OF
Wells slugged .452 on the road and a more consistent environment could allow him to improve his average and on-base percentage enough to warrant 350 plate appearances. He struggled again versus right-handed pitching, however, suggesting full-time duty is not likely in his immediate future.
The 27-year-old profiles well as a platoon bat -- he hit .267/.364/.527 versus southpaws in 2012 -- and that could be enough to get him some significant time in Seattle next season or to entice another club to come calling.
He's solid defensively in a corner and is passable in center. He also runs well and has a strong throwing arm. Wells could be the perfect fourth outfielder if the M's can land enough production in a right field starter that he can be used as such. It's worth noting that Wells is out of options.
Justin Smoak, 1B
Smoak, again, toyed with the M's and the fans by being a total nothing for most of the year but showing three weeks of star-caliber play in late May and early June and using his new swing to again put up big numbers in September.
The club is going to be more than open to adding a proven first baseman over the winter and if they are able to acquire such a player, Smoak will be shipped out, likely in a separate transaction. He handles first base just fine and if the bats the M's find prior to spring training are outfielders and DH types, Smoak is the fallback option at first.
He'll start to get expensive -- for a poor hitter, anyway -- after 2013, so if he gets one more shot next season, it will be his last, unless he performs much better and with more consistency.
Kyle Seager
Seager may have hit 25-30 homers in 2012 had the new dimensions been in place, but if he takes the offseason to make the right adjustments he could develop into a better hitter in general.
His swing plane bothers me; it takes an upper cut path with intent to hit fly balls, which didn't play well at Safeco -- and won't play all that much better at the new one, despite the chance for more long balls. Seager has the hand-eye coordination and pitch recognition to hit .285 or better and if he can improve his selectivity and draw a few more walks -- he drew a base on balls in seven percent of his plate appearances -- he could end up an all-star third baseman.
Defensively Seager is a Dennis Green special: he is what I thought he was. I was asked on several occasions about how Seager would fit at the hot corner and from the very first time I saw him play the position it was apparent he would be above-average there. He's not Adrian Beltre, but he makes all the routine plays with sure hands and a strong, accurate throwing arm. His range is solid laterally and he's improved on slow rollers in front of him.
From my point of view, Seager is one player I'd watch closely in 2013 and if he takes another step forward it may be time to lock him on a three-year deal to buy out some arbitration years.
John Jaso, C/DH
Jaso was the team's best hitter this past season and was not bothered by Safeco Field. He's a line drive hitter who makes contact, stays off pitches out of the zone and can hit a fastball. His defense is fringy but it's also good enough to warrant a little more time back there in 2013.
Jaso is arbitration eligible, but the cost won't be prohibitive in year one. He doesn't hit lefties well, but getting him to the plate more than 361 times next season has to be near the top of the M's to-do list next spring. If and how that happens depends largely on the makeup of the roster.
Stay tuned.
Jesus Montero, C/DH
Many seem disappointed in Montero's performance in 2012 but if you remove the struggles at Safeco the 22-year-old batted .295/.330/.438 with nine home runs. He also had problems with right-handers, batting .228/.262/.346 against them, but showed significant progress in that area in the second half of the season.
After the break, Montero's strikeout rate improved as a result of his work versus the right-handed breaking ball and his patience and recognition boosted his walk rate a bit, too. He's not a long-term full-time catcher, but there are still reasons to believe in his bat, and the new Safeco could be greatly advantageous for his overall numbers.
Mike Carp, 1B
Carp battled a shoulder injury and really didn't get the opportunities the club wanted to give him in 2012, but he's a poor outfielder and if the club is going to take a chance on a first baseman already on the roster, it's going to be Smoak who comes with the much bigger upside.
Carp, much like Smoak sans September, is a mistake hitter with average bat speed. There are scouts who believe Carp is often too pull happy, but for me it seems like he's simply only able to hit certain pitches in certain areas of the zone, so those holes are exposed regularly.
He lacks the power Smoak offers in terms of upside, though a healthy version may be the better bet to hit .250 or better in 2013. He's below-average with the glove at first base and likely does not fit anywhere on the M's 25-man roster . He's out of options, however, so if he happens to start spring training with the club, he'll be dealt, designated for assignment or traded before the season begins.
Brendan Ryan, SS
Ryan was as bad offensively as he was good defensively in 2012, and is two-year contract expired at the end of the season. He's arbitration eligible -- not a free agent -- and is likely to be brought back on a one-year deal.
Ryan, in my opinion, is closer to the hitter he was the first two-thirds of 2011 than this past season and is a perfect keep-it-warm shortstop until Nick Franklin or Brad Miller are ready to take over on a full-time basis.
Dave Hansen might be able to offer Ryan a simpler swing and one that creates more line drives than fly balls or ground balls. If so, Ryan can easily get close to the league-median batting average and on-base mark he had going until the injury in August of '11.
Chone Figgins, UT
Figgins should have been released a year ago. He should have been released in late May after struggling for the first six or eight weeks of 2012 and he should be released now. He brings nothing to the table that the Mariners need; he isn't an above-average defender at any position he can manage, he can't play second or shortstop, is now also below-average in center, he can't hit and he's lost at least two steps since signing with the club, robbing him of what was once a true asset in his speed.
The M's have no business hanging onto Figgins any longer, but if they haven't moved on by now there is no telling how long he might remain on the roster.
Trayvon Robinson, OF
Robinson, who is out of options, has not developed at the plate as quickly as the M's hoped and is likely to either serve as the fifth outfielder at the outset of the 2013 season or be removed from the 40-man and sent through waivers -- the same situation as Carp.
He's made progress with contact rates, just not enough, and since he isn't an ideal centerfielder -- average range, well below-average arm strength -- there doesn't appear to be enough upside to warrant keeping Robinson over Wells.
Eric Thames
Thames isn't much of a fielder, but he plays hard and has had a lot more success versus right-handed pitching than he did in 2012. If he returned to 2011 form, for example, and was platooned with Wells in right, the M's would be employing a .285/.340/.500 hitting right fielder with above-average speed. That isn’t how things work, unfortunately, but Thames has a place on the M's roster in the right alignment.
We'll have to wait and see how it works out, but Thames is, still under club control and has an option left , if necessary.
Carlos Triunfel, SS
Triunfel, somewhat like Ackley, was originally seen as a potential plus bat that would have to move off shortstop but could profile at third base. He's now seen as a passable, perhaps even average, defender, with tools to hit for power but plate skills that suggest a reserve at best.
He still chases, often making weak contact when he does, and still shows similar avoidance of the two-strike count as did Yuniesky Betancourt and Jose Lopez. Working counts and getting better pitches to hit -- so he can drive the ball, something he's physically capable of doing -- more than poke at it.
The M's are in the market for a backup middle infielder capable of handling shortstop and while they'd prefer a veteran, Triunfel could be the beneficiary of a thin market for such players.
Carlos Peguero
When he connects, the ball goes a long ways. Peguero often breaks the 100 mph barrier off the bat, but has no control of the strike zone and swings and misses too much to play every day. His lack of a plan and long swing contribute to his ridiculous contact rates -- 39 percent in the big leagues, nearly 50 percent in 2012 -- and he's drawn just nine walks (4 percent) in 212 plate appearances in The Show. He's fringy, at best, in the outfield, though he does have a strong throwing arm.
Peguero, 26 in February, is likely headed back to Triple-A to start 2013, if he's with the club beyond the winter. The M's could see a need for 40-man roster room and cut him loose via DFA.
roster-review-2012:-position-players
Comments
The following 17 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: iheartfelix on 10-30-2012 22:31:57 given a choice between watching more Carlos Peguero ABs or tearing out my own eyeballs, I think I would go ahead and watch Carlos... but it's a near thing. He has obviously spent countless hours studying at the Miguel Olivo school of hitting where the only two acceptable outcomes are a strikeout or homerun. He along with Figgins, Trayvon and Carp need to be removed from the 40 man to make sure Wedge doesn't make any more spelling errors when trying to write Jaso or Wells into the lineup, and accidentally giving these guys playing time. (I assume that's mostly what happened last year) |
| 2. By: Jason A. Churchill on 10-30-2012 22:47:13 Something tells me the turnover for the outfield crop is going to be quite large. |
| 3. By: iheartfelix on 10-30-2012 23:10:34 I sure hope so JAC. If Saunders were the only one still around at the start of the season I would be fine with that. I really hope that turnover includes signing Melky AND a trade of some kind, but that is probably far too much to hope for. Of course Guti will probably still be around until his DL stint begins, and Wells would makeup a solid 1/2 of a right fielder if they can find a suitable platoon partner. Just out of curiosity, Why does Alex Gordon play LF for KC instead of RF? I would think his arm would be great in right, and for some reason I have just always thought of RF as a more important position than left (not sure if that is even a little valid). For Gordon is it a park dimension thing, or does it have to do with his move from 3B and the comfort level with reading the ball off the bat from that angle? Or maybe something else entirely. What do you think? |
| 4. By: Tpatt253 on 10-30-2012 23:51:16 Enjoyed the write up, except for the fact there wasn't more positivity to speak of. I think Seager hitting 25-30 with new dimensions is a stretch (and u happen to love his swing). Very disappointed in ackley, looked like a 20th rd pick, and even tho smoak is young cheap and has upside It wouldn't take a lot to move on from him by OD and not question it. The one thing that does hold hope is how slow Saunders took to develop and is now a really nice OFer and outside chance smoak could follow suit. Totally enamored with Saunders. I think he could be the josh reddick of 2013. He had some power surges and if he can find/hold to those a little longer next year I can see 30 hrs, great D with 20 SBs. Guy works, plays and trains hard. I've heard a notion to start montero n triple A which is weird, one of our best hitters and poised to make a progression, if we add a vet and put him between 2 lefties he should flourish. Thanks for the reports. |
| 5. By: Tpatt253 on 10-30-2012 23:55:58 Edit on Seager, I happen to love his swing, nothing wrong with a slight uppercut for me. |
| 6. By: jgstecker on 10-31-2012 05:53:18 At this point I feel comfortable with Gutierrez, Saunders, and Wells covering CF and one of the corners in the outfield, with Thames hanging out in Tacoma as insurance. It seems like the stars may be aligning for a Josh Hamilton run here. I know, Hamilton will be overpaid by more than a little, but enough teams may be shying away that the bidding might not get out of control. I'm getting the sense that the club may need to make a splash this offseason and I don't think Melky Cabrera will cut it with the season ticket holders. Looking forward to the PI post (and comments) on Hamilton. It also seems to me that Smoak will get another shot at the full-time 1B gig. The market for passable first basemen isn't inspiring and I'm not sure Montero can pick up the position any time soon. I'd have no problem with extending Ryan beyond 2013. There'd be worse things than having him around as an overpaid backup to Franklin or Miller. Beyond that, the only questions are on the bench where only Wells should be anything close to a lock. Everybody else currently in-house should be considered a fall-back option at this point. |
| 7. By: Tpatt253 on 10-31-2012 09:03:00 Jg- I agree with your comments on Hamilton and smoak. Don't know yet how the FA market will unfold but I don't see a Hamilton signing being as bad of an investment as say swisher. Hamilton can bat MOTO for any team in baseball, he's the presence that can allow our young guys to thrive. His talent is so immense, if he can miss 2 years for drugs and become an MVP, ALCS MVP, I think he can stay plenty productive going into his mid 30s, this is HOF level talent. Plus he was healthy last year, and hit 43 hrs. Also, if there is one team that can overspend on a true MOTO bat it's Ms, and by signing a FA instead of trade we get to keep all our young talent. I'm all for it, prolly up to $115-120mil. Same goes for smoak, I don't think he deserves to be our OD 1b but the market isn't ripe to replace him, he's still young and plays good D, just hope he hits well enough for a 7 or 8 hole guy. Wish we had more organizational depth there. If he gets off to his typical start maybe we can look into Matt Adams. |
| 8. By: Jerry on 10-31-2012 10:06:49 Call me an M's homer, but I see a lot of upside on the roster. Seager and Saunders emerged as good players this year, and are good bets to be above average next year. Jaso was an absolute steal, and should get as more PT next year. But I think the key to improving next year isn't wild free agent spending, but giving the players already on the roster a chance to reach their potential. Smoak, Montero, and Ackley are the best bets we have at improving dramatically next year, and all three need a chance to play. I think we do need to take into account the Safeco factor. I think it got to the point of messing with guys heads, especially Smoak and Saunders. This year was an odd outlier partly due to the weather, as Safeco played as a far more extreme pitchers park. I don't like to speculate about coaching or player psychology, but how many times did you see Saunders or Smoak with a bewildered look on their face after seeing a well-hit ball die on the warning track? Again, I'm no coach, and don't know much about scouting players. But even I could see obvious problems. Ackley looked like shit most of the year. It almost seemed like he adopted an Ichiro approach, pulling away towards first base midway through his swing. Nobody will hit the ball hard like that. He needs to get stronger, but he also needs to stay back on the ball and drive pitches. That is the difference between the weak Ackley we saw this year and the guy he could be. If Ackley gets his swing right, he could be an Alex Gordon type hitter: .300/.370/.475 with 15-20 HRs and tons of 2Bs. That is a great player. But he clearly needs to work on his swing a bit. And Smoak was so completely lost at the plate that even a casual fan could see the problem. But we've seen what he can do when his swing is right, and he showed that that potential is still there in September. When his mechanics are off, his bat is slow, he doesn't seem able to recognize pitches, and he looks like shit. When he's right, he looks like a legit #5 hitter. I know that lots of players are streaky like this, and never put things together. Obviously, he is on a short leash, but I argue that it is way too early to bail on him. Montero is young and looked overmatched at times, but Jason pointed out his home/road splits and improvements over the course of the year. He should get better. This is a big offseason, and the M's need to make some improvements. But this isn't the time to bail on these young guys. I think the weather contributed, in a sort of perfect storm: big field, terrible weather most of the year, young inexperienced players, lack of veteran presence, and inability of coaches to reach players. The changes to the field will help. But the key to 2013 will be whether or not the team can get some core players to hit like they are capable. If I'm Jack, I would look for undervalued assets (like Jaso) and a few major additions (one big OF bat at least, and perhaps a #2 starter), and resist the urge to fix this mess through bad free agent signings. Instead, acquiring depth is crucial this year. They would be dumb to jettison or block these young guys, and the worst thing that could happen is watching them turn into good players for other teams. Acquiring depth behind them is the way forward. If they continue to fail, the M's need to have guys who can step in and get their shot. |
| 9. By: Rudolf on 10-31-2012 10:11:45 Hamilton for $120 million is a pipe dream. Detroit went nuts for Fielder last year (with NY and Boston out of the running). Some team will get stupid with the purse and I hope it isn't the M's. Triunfel should get a good shot to back-up short, second, and third base. He might become a good utility guy, or a SS stop-gap. I would also like to see a cheap two or three year deal inked with Ryan this off-season. I seriously hope the M's are working Montero hard at first base. That would solve a lot of potential problems for 2014 and beyond. Seager's swing has far too much uppercut; it's like watching a little guy try to prove something. I hope he takes Jason's advice and calms it down. The M's need to buy a LF (Melky, Pagan); platoon Wells and Thames in RF; Gutierrez is a part-time player. Package two or three prospects for another hitter: Gordon, Willingham, etc.. I am often surprised how little it takes. Brad Miller should fetch something nice if you toss in V-Cat and Bawcom, for example. Bundle up Carp, Robinson, Peguero, and Figgens and ship em off for a real hitting coach. Toss in Smoak if its a good one. |
| 10. By: diderot on 10-31-2012 11:35:40 Here's an admittedly limited but I think still useful way to look at hitting talent: line drive % versus strike out %. Hitting line drives 25% of the time is good. Doing that while infrequently striking out is even better. Here's a list of notable LD guys from last year, followed by their strike out %: Fowler 27.2/24.2 Freeman 26.0/20.8 Cano 25.6/13.8 Fielder 25.4/12.2 Mauer 25.0/13.7 Gordon 25.0/19.4 Posey 24.6/15.7 A Gon 24.1/16.1 Ethier 24.1/20.1 Butler 23.9/16.3 This is Montero in the second half: 25/12.6. Can he sustain that for an entire year? I don't know. But he's still 22 years old and I sure as hell look forward to finding out. |
| 11. By: titans12 on 10-31-2012 12:05:46 I like Saunders and on most teams he would be a very good 4th OF. He can play all 3 spots very well and I feel comfortable as a starter on this team. We need 2 more outfielders -one who can leadoff( Bourn/Pagan ) and one to hit #3( Gordon,Choo,Upton)and put Saunders in the remaining spot on defense. |
| 12. By: eknpdx on 10-31-2012 12:10:43 Jason, Does Smoak have one more option left? It looks that way when you read the transaction history. If Smoak can be optioned, then is it not just a better plan to look at 2013 Smoak-less? |
| 13. By: maqman on 10-31-2012 12:25:27 I'm pretty much aligned with Jason's opinions, except a bit on Carp. I think he still could turn out to have some value, as Smoak insurance if nothing else. I'd like to see him in spring training and find out what he still has to offer. Alex Gordon put up 6.9 fWAR in 2011 and 5.9 fWAR in 2012, he might be available but the price in prospects would be very big. Willingham has become a fan favorite for the Twins and they would probably take less for Denard Span. They both put up 3.9 fWAR this year, both are signed for the next two seasons for $6-$7MM per season but Span is four or five years younger. Billy Butler ain't much with a glove but he hit a career high 29 HRs this year. If Smoak sticks at 1B he'd take DH spots away from Montero and Jaso. |
| 14. By: Tpatt253 on 10-31-2012 13:01:56 In response to #9, you might be right about $120 mil being a pipe dream for josh, I heard rumor it could go down to 4/80 but that doesn't sound right. Hard for me (prolly anyone) to gauge right now. I don't like that chi let youk walk and I see them as a high spender to get in there. If minny puts mauer on block I thnk Boston could go for that and pass on Hamilton. Anyways if ms go all the way up to $145 I believe in him with our desperation for MOTO bat is a go. Another option sign Greinke makes it easy to part with SP specs for upton/Bruce/ Gordon/Cargo I think we have to play and win FA or a trade if we want to get out of 4th. I don't think a lot of moves need to be made but 1 maybe 2 big moves a couple small ones, keep most of the young talent and be contenders with a sustainable plan. |
| 15. By: Tpatt253 on 11-02-2012 08:44:04 another response to hamilton being a pipedream at 120mil http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-25-best-and-five-worst-free-agent-values/ 5/100 they predict here, that could change when he actually hits the market but prince was getting WAY more than this from the jump. |
| 16. By: SmSilver27 on 11-03-2012 10:25:48 Correct me if I'm wrong but the Mariners payroll currently stands at 54.7m and I've heard this years payroll will be at the 91m dollar range. If that's true, the team stands to have 36.3m dollars available to spend on player personnel. That being said, I'd like to see the Mariners push hard for Michael Bourn. The Mariners need a defensive upgrade in CF as well as need a capable lead-off hitter. In response to your profile on Billy Butler, I think you have the right but the wrong player. I've been a huge advocate of the Mariners pursuing Alex Gordon. I believe the Royals are in the same predicament with Gordon as well as Butler. They need arms and I know that James Paxton's name has been rumored. I believe Gordon would be a better fit for the Mariners because of the flexibility he provides. I don't believe the Mariners need to be crazy this off-season, but need to be creative with the resources they do have. They is to incrementally improve on the 75 wins and take that next step to .500 with an eye on making that big push in 2014. Just a thought. |
| 17. By: SmSilver27 on 11-03-2012 10:27:49 My apologies for the grammatical errors in my last post. I was in a rush, but you get the gist. lol |
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