|By Jason A. Churchill||By 12-07-2012|
|1. By: dangayle on 12-07-2012 17:36:57|
Our current catcher situation is the most exciting part of our team, other than Felix. I really don't want to mess with what we have. Jaso has an awesome beard, Montero is likely to break out this year (especially with the shorter fences), and we have Zunino on the way.
It's one of the few areas of strength, with possibly the highest ceiling on our team if everyone lives up to their hype.
You can't say that about anything on our team, other than our starting pitching prospects, several of whom are likely to be traded away.
|2. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-07-2012 17:42:42|
It's amazing, considering Olivo batted 243/259/418 as a catcher, but the M's catchers as a whole posted a .278/.320/.463 triple-slash in 2012. Best position on the entire team.
|3. By: k0o56 on 12-07-2012 17:48:34|
I agree. I can't wait to see how they build off of last year.
|4. By: Docmilo on 12-07-2012 18:10:21|
Fangraphs says Olivo hit .222/.239/.381 in 2012. Am I missing something? Oh, I get it. He really sucked as a DH. Wow, he hit .114 as a DH and still got put out there for 14 games.
|5. By: shemberry on 12-07-2012 18:12:27|
I would hate to give up on Montero now. Would have to be as part of a monster deal for me to like it.
|6. By: Edman on 12-07-2012 18:18:17|
I think Seattle's gonna do something big like they did when Jack traded Putz (still a great value trade, though I questioned it at the time). The problem is, it takes a while to put them together. And, as Jack always seems to do, you'll never see it coming.
It's rather amazing that because the M's have money to spend, they get tied to every rumor involving a hitter.
|7. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-07-2012 18:37:14|
Docmilo --- that is his line overall, not as a catcher. He pinch hit here and there, even served as the DH for 12 games. Yahoo's player page breaks it down by role
|8. By: rjfrik on 12-07-2012 20:42:22|
I like to hear that the M's are in on Hamilton and Myers. I think that would be a great combination of both veteran and rookie talent to not only help us out immediately but carry us through Hamilton's contract.
The more I think about it. The more I would be willing to give Hamilton 5 years at 25 a year. As previous people have mentioned, we haven't had a superstar like that in a long time and with the progression that the kids are making he would be a fantastic anchor in the middle of the lineup to not only add protection but teach. If two of the big four arms down on the farm become solid rotation guys or better we could be really good come 2014/15. Really good.
|9. By: Juan Valdez on 12-07-2012 20:56:59|
A 5 year deal for Hamilton scares me. I also don't buy into the idea of veteran influence and the intangible benefit of teaching the young guys. I DO believe in talent, however, which JH has plenty of. But I still don't think I would go more than four years.
|10. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-07-2012 21:10:16|
The Mariners will have to be the high bid, maybe by 10-20 percent, or they have no shot at any free agent. That is simply the way it is right now. It's the price of a losing culture that's lived at Safeco for most of the past decade.
If it takes five years to get him, they have to go five years. The simple addition of Hamilton changes everything. All of a sudden, they may NOT have to be the highest bidder by 10-20 percent -- or at all -- as such a move gives the club street cred, so to speak.
I believe it's still more likely that the Mariners' biggest addition this offseason comes via trade.
|11. By: Juan Valdez on 12-07-2012 21:21:06|
Jason, do you have any real information on what it would take to get Wil Myers? Yes, I have a man crush. I'll own that.
|12. By: sexymarinersfan on 12-07-2012 21:36:49|
The Royals want a front line starter like James Shields or possibly Jon Lester for Myers. They need starting pitching that can help them now, which unfortunately does not describe and of our Big Three.
However, if Seattle were somehow to acquire Derek Holland from Texas in the said "four-way trade" with Arizona, Tampa Bay, they then could "possibly" package Holland and a Brandon Maurer for Wil Myers, might get it done.
|13. By: Juan Valdez on 12-07-2012 21:39:44|
I know that. I refresh mlbtr every 5 minutes or so. I'm interested in what JAC has to say.
|14. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-07-2012 22:16:47|
That's what I am getting from sources, too. The Royals will hold out as long as they can to make a deal that returns them a No. 1 or 2 type starter for Myers. Seems they'd prefer to deal Myers over Butler, though I'd rather have Myers in the long run.
If the Rays are offered Myers for Shields, they should accept the deal and quietly crack jokes on the way home from the talent store, because that's highway robbery, in my opinion. Shields is a solid starter, and may be a good No. 2, but he's not free in terms of salary and there's a chance he's just a mid-rotation answer, too.
Myers is still just a prospect, so there's that inherent risk involved, but the payoff could be pretty big. We're not talking Mike Trout or Bryce Harper huge, but Myers could be what everyone thought Jay Bruce was going to be; a .280/.370/.550 hitter with plus defense in right.
|15. By: Juan Valdez on 12-07-2012 22:41:32|
Thanks. My impression, from what I've been reading is that the Royals would accept something less than a 1 or 2 for Myers. I've had it in my head that something like Vargas plus Paxton might get it done. I appreciate your insight.
|16. By: sexymarinersfan on 12-07-2012 22:47:46|
Kansas City has been touting Myers up to their fan base a lot more AND higher than Seattle has its very own Big Three.
If Kansas City is going to trade Myers, they're going to expect a significant return for him. A No. 4 SP and the 3rd best pitching prospect won't get it done. It's not about quantity, but quality. I'd expect KC to be asking for Walker and change.
|17. By: Juan Valdez on 12-07-2012 22:55:05|
I would give up Walker. I'd buy him a nice set of luggage as a parting gift too.
|18. By: greentunic on 12-07-2012 23:50:37|
How would Holland change anything?
His results (and peripherals) do not jump out at all. Is it the fact that one of his biggest weaknesses was the home run ball and that his homers allowed should decrease outside Arlington?
I just don't see the value there at all.
|19. By: rjfrik on 12-08-2012 01:04:18|
Listen. As Jason said, Hamilton is the big fish, the superstar and the only one left out there that can be had without trading away prospects. He would change the culture of the M's. We would have a legit major league ball player that we haven't seen in over a decade. If you have to give him five years you do it. He's got 4 good years left in him. If you have to overpay to get him on the team by essentially buying out a fifth year then that's what you have to do. This is Josh Hamilton. Make the deal.
Then trade Walker and Beaven for Myers and call it a day. Our offense is immensely better. Overnight.
Oh and Fuck Jason Bay. If you grab Hamilton and Myers, Bay doesn't make it to opening day and he shouldn't. He's garbage.
|20. By: d2ret on 12-08-2012 02:11:14|
Agreed. I like it. :)
I hope Z can obtain ONE of those two rfrik!
Both would be very very exciting!
In that scenario, we would still have Hultzen, Maurer, Paxton, and Ramirez to back Felix.
The offense would line up real well too. Your plan would add a lot balance to the team, and keep a ton of our farm talent. I like it.
|21. By: d2ret on 12-08-2012 02:24:58|
Like Jack said though... 'You have to be right' if you are trading your best prospects.
Most people see Myers as the real deal.
I SO look forward to T.Walk in an M's Jersey. LOVE Him.
What about Hultzen/Ramirez/Kelly? They seem to be looking for close to MLB starters anyway. Then we could sign a starter...
|22. By: Lamda on 12-08-2012 02:43:23|
I'd shy away from trading Walker for Meyers if what i'm hearing is correct. Some believe Walker will be a #1 type starter. You don't trade a #1 starter for a pretty good OF'er, you trade him for a GREAT OF'er. Granted we are dealing in possibilities here as both are unproven but I guess the point is if ours seems to project higher than theirs then don't do it. I'd much rather see Paxton traded as his agent won't let him re-sign with us if he becomes the player we all hope he will anyways.
|23. By: Docmilo on 12-08-2012 06:44:52|
I really think it's going to take 5 years to get Hamilton. There are a lot of teams that would be willing to pay him for 3 years at a "friendly" contract. It's year 4 that scares most and year 5 is Jack Nicholson poking his head thru the bathroom door. The M's are going to have to be willing to eat that last $25 to $30 mill knowing they should still get more WAR in 2016 and 2017 than they got from Chone Figgins for $36 million over 4 years.
As a fallback if the M's miss out on Hamilton, I think the M's should look towards Swisher and Drew.
|24. By: iheartfelix on 12-08-2012 06:46:58|
I don't see any mentions of Swisher here. Is everyone forgetting that he is still out there? With the potential suitors narrowed down by all of the other signings that have happened, the M's might not have to overpay too much to bring him in. I think he is the one move that the Mariners should definitely make this winter because of his consistency, his reputation as a great clubhouse guy, and his flexibility to play a decent RF and 1B. Why has everyone seemingly jumped off the Swisher train?
|25. By: dewey on 12-08-2012 06:50:42|
Jason how or we in every rumor and we havent signed anyone other then a released player? Is this a PR move?
|26. By: sexymarinersfan on 12-08-2012 08:47:32|
@22 Lamda: I almost posted this last night but didn't. Jack Z said earlier at the Winter Meetings that a lot of other clubs were interested in our pieces. He said they carry a certain value system as of right now, but once they hit the majors for that cup of coffee, that their value significantly goes up! Which would lead to better trade value for our youngsters.
I know the front office is very patient, however the fan base is literally frothing at the mouth over a poor FA market.
Do we wait and keep growing the farm? Or is now the time to strike a deal?
|27. By: maqman on 12-08-2012 10:57:58|
I'd prefer Swisher to Hamilton, Hamilton has too many red flags and a high albatross factor. Swisher has a better chance of playing well throughout his contract as he's more resilient than Hamilton. Not to mention he's many millions of dollars less to sign and Texas won't have a chance to match his offer. Then I'd trade one of Pryor or Capps and another small bit if necessary for one year of Morse at $6.75MM to give Swish some backup. Less risk than Hamilton, less loss of prospects for sure. Meyers is still a prospect and not a five tool one.
|28. By: Docmilo on 12-08-2012 10:59:49|
My guess Dewey is that since the M's are pretty tight about their dealings, agents are connecting the M's to everything since they have money. If the Yankees had money to spend, everyone would be talking about them.
Also, I'm pretty sure Zduriencik is talking to everyone. You can't let the big FA's think the M's are waiting on them. You have to let people think you have other options or they will just wait you out.
I just hope Grienke enjoyed all his attention in Nashville, is rested up from all the travel and ready to get to business so the M's can get to business.
|29. By: bakomariner on 12-08-2012 11:56:49|
Usually don't get in on the rosterbation, but everyone is doing it, I'm bored, and and I really, really want Myers and Hamilton.
Trade Gutierrez, Smoak, Vargas, Beavan and prospects Hultzen, Miller and Montero to KC for Myers and Butler.
Trade Kelley and Luetge to WAS for Morse.
Sign C Shoppach to a 1 year deal
Sign Bourn to a 3 year deal
Sign Hamilton to a 4 year deal
Sign E. Jackson to a 2 year deal
Sign J. Saunders to a 1 year deal
You keep 4 of the top five prospect and improve across the board. The money saved from trading Guti and Vargas, along with the raise in payroll, should give flexibility to sign the FAs.
|30. By: rjfrik on 12-08-2012 12:14:34|
Swisher is a 32 year old corner OF. Most player aging curves peak at 32, meaning that the apex of their ability is in the year 32, after that year they start their decline. So, first off, you will be signing Swisher, who wants 4 or 5 years, to a contract in his declining years. He's hit his peak according to aging curves.
Swisher last year had the second highest BABIP of his career at .324. The only other year where he had a better BABIP was in 2010, his career year. Swisher consistently has a career BABIP of .294 and that is usually where he lands year in and year out. Why is this important? Because Swisher is not fast, averages about 2 SB's a year and doesn't have BIG power, career ISO is .202, last years was .201. Swisher has a career fly ball % of 43.7%, so almost have of what he hits are fly balls and his HR/FB % is 14.9, meaning that a lot of his fly balls are outs and fly balls are close to half his hits. His ground ball rate is 38.7%, for a guy that isn't fast that just creates more outs, ground ball outs and you can see why he is a .256 batter. He has a decent line drive rate at 19.5%, it's not great but a little above average.
So this is a guy who has hit his peak as far as aging curves go and up until he hit his peak he compiled a career .256 batting average, he's slow and hits a lot of ground balls and fly balls. His fly balls up to this point didn't leave the yard with a ton of regularity as he has a career .202 ISO. This is a guy who has played 11 seasons of professional baseball and wants a team to sign him to a 4 to 5 year minimum contract on the wrong side of his aging curve.
Do you think that with his peripherals he will produce the kind of value you would have to pay him in any of those four or five years?
I don't. Maybe has one or two decent years, where he hits .256 and clubs 25 HR's, which is the EXACT projection that Bill James gives Nick Swisher for next year. Remember that Swisher played at Yankee stadium, which has a park factor for HR's at 1.143. Safeco Fields park factor is second to last in all of baseball at .583. Half of what Yankee Stadium is. Swisher hit 11 of his HR's @ Yankee stadium last year. He hit 12 @ Yankee stadium the year before that. If he was playing those home games @ Safeco you can take 1/2 of those HR's away by just using the park factor. That would translate to Swisher hitting 17 HR's in 2011 and 19 HR's in 2012 all while batting .266.
That is what you could realistically expect from Nick Swisher. This isn't a guy we should be considering at all. Especially when it means we punt our #12 draft pick to sign him to an albatross contract. Nick Swisher is not a fit for Seattle and it would seriously hurt the franchise if we signed him.
Just say no on Nick Swisher.
|31. By: rjfrik on 12-08-2012 12:49:12|
Now let's look at Josh Hamilton.
Hamilton is a year younger then Swisher, so according to aging curves he has one more full year before he hits his peak. But the interesting thing about Hamilton is that he hasn't had a normal career when it comes to years and games played. Just for comparison Nick Swisher has played in 1529 professional games. Josh Hamilton has played in 1027 games. Now Swisher has one more professional year then Hamilton, which could equate to adding another 130 games to Hamilton's tally. That still leaves almost three years of games played that Swisher has over Hamilton. That's three years of wear and tear and fatigue. Three years that Hamilton could essentially still have left in the tank. So you could make an argument that Hamilton's aging curve could really peak at 35 because of the three years he took off from playing baseball.
Hamilton has also won an MVP award, led the league in batting, RBI's, slugging, total bases and has been to six all star games. Nick Swisher has been to one all star game.
Hamilton consistently has a BABIP above .320, his career line is .335, like Ichiro, the guy is a hitter. He knows how to get on base with a .363 OBP. He hits the crap out of the ball with a .246 career ISO, his last three years he's averaged over a .300 ISO. His HR/FB % was 25.6% last year with a FB% of 41.1 %. That means that every ten hits that Hamilton made was a HR. He has a career line drive % of 21.5 which is well above average. You can see why he batted .359 in 2010. He has averaged over a 4 WAR every year he has been with the Rangers and has been worth about 19 million a year.
Because of the time off he took I don't see him aging the same way a 31 year old would. You should be very comfortable offering Hamilton a four year contract at 20 million a year. Because of the value that he brings as a superstar and the specific value he would bring to the Mariners in terms of showing the fans that the M's are dedicated to winning, the value he would bring to the clubhouse and the young players in it, the value he would add as to the lineup in terms of protection and the value he would give the front office and other players around the league by representing that the M's are serious about winning the M's should feel comfortable by offering Hamilton a five year deal at 23 million or so a year and punting their #12 pick.
The M's are in a unique situation to bring in a player who would change the culture and that is worth more then just the value of the player gives you on the field. Hamilton is the only player in the FA market that gives you that.
|32. By: rjfrik on 12-08-2012 12:50:06|
Edman. That was all for you. :)
|33. By: DRWheelock on 12-08-2012 13:16:44|
With the Phillies acquiring Young today and saving an additional $6M out of his salary, do you think they will now be in the running for Greinke, Upton AND Hamilton?
It wouldn't surprise me, especially if Seattle is at 3yrs still. Now with word that the Yanks and BoSox are interested, since word is 3 years, I'm sure now Seattle will have to move to 4 or 5 years at least!
|34. By: d2ret on 12-08-2012 13:20:01|
That was perfect rjfrik.
|35. By: sexymarinersfan on 12-08-2012 14:00:44|
Despite reports about Hamilton being the second choice to the Rangers, don't hang your hats on that notion. I've seen nothing that leads me to believe that HamBone's secondary option is the Mariners. His agent is still holding out for a 6-7 year deal. Boston, New York, LA, and Philadelphia are all possibilities.
|36. By: JonathanAicardi on 12-08-2012 14:22:28|
And touching again upon what Jason said, it's going to take more for Seattle to sign Hamilton (or anyone) than the average team. For Seattle to have a chance, you're talking about a deal that blows a rival offer away. It just isn't worth it to Hamilton to take an offer equal or slightly above equal from us with all the secondary issues we're facing. It makes you wonder if it's too much.
|37. By: rotoenquire on 12-08-2012 14:26:59|
I would have hoped the Ms would have been in on getting Young. Moving Seagar then too an OF corner spot. At a decent savings and then putting more cash and another year or two on Hamilton. Young a veteran leader who still can hit, would have been a nice add and solved some of our problems freeing the team to do more. I hope and believe JackZ has something in his bag of tricks. Be nice to make some sort of play off run this year.
|38. By: Docmilo on 12-08-2012 15:09:23|
rotoenquire, not so excellent. Do you know if Seager has ever played a game in the OF since little league or if even then? Seager played a very solid 3rd last year, better than Young has played in many years and could play a pretty solid 2nd as well. Saunders, Gutierrez and Hamilton I have a feeling would all be much better options in the OF than Seager, too.
|39. By: Paul Martin on 12-08-2012 15:41:31|
@22 I would take the top hitting prospect over a top pitching prospect any day. Pitchers get injured easier and are more likely to bust or turn into relievers. Seattle also has a lot of pitching depth and aside from Franklin and maybe Zunino, very little hitting anywhere near big league ready.
@30 how can you say no to Swisher when you have one of the worse offenses in baseball? Would you rather just roll the dice with Smoak and Casper Wells?
@37 going after Young is a horrible idea!!! He was awful last year, expensive, and old. I would rather have Edgar Martinez at this stage of their careers!!! At least with Edgar there would be some sentimental value to seeing him on the field. All kidding aside, if Young sucked hitting in Texas, what makes you think he is suddenly going to find his stroke at Safeco field? Seager is MUCH better right now!
|40. By: Docmilo on 12-08-2012 15:52:28|
Paul, #31rjfrik made a good point that Swisher could go all Richie Sexson on us. Yes, I would prefer giving Smoak another year than to be strapped to Swisher's decline years. Guess it's good those decisions aren't up to me.
|41. By: Dmitriy1992 on 12-08-2012 15:58:13|
Excellent posts, but you forget to mention one factor when it comes to Hamilton. In that drugs do more harm in damaging the body than baseball ever will. In fact even though Swisher has played more games than Hamilton you can make a very legitimate argument that Swisher has less "wear and tear" than Hamilton.
That said I am still in favor of the M's adding Hamilton. Who I think when it is all said and done will be one of those players that when one looks back, one can't help but wonder, "What could of been?"
|42. By: rjfrik on 12-08-2012 16:28:25|
Paul. Would Swisher be an upgrade over Wells? Hell yes he would!!
Is Swisher worth a 5 year contract at 12 million per and losing your #12 pick over? No Way!!
I'm not arguing that Swisher isn't a better option then what is on the team in RF but for what Swisher would cost I wouldn't touch the guy with a ten foot pole. This isn't someone that we can bring in for a year or two and keep our draft pick. This is someone you will have to overpay for and lose the draft pick. Someone that won't have that much value as a Mariner hitter.
About Hamilton's drug use. It is well documented he battled abuse early in his life. But the three years he didn't play he was not abusing. He was cleaning himself up and living a normal life. The love of the game brought him back to baseball. Also for the last ten years, since he's been clean he has not touched alcohol. Alcohol breaks down the body just as much as drugs do, it's a poison. So for someone to be totally clean and not going out at night and partying like many other players do during their 20's and 30's it's a big thing. In fact I bet that his body is equal to other players that don't do drugs but have done ten years of drinking and clubbing. Think about that.
|43. By: Paul Martin on 12-08-2012 16:44:51|
@42 I would rather have Hamilton than Swisher too, but if Hamilton goes to Texas or the Yankees (there is chatter they might get involved) then Swisher is a great fallback. I am not worried about giving up a draft pick, who knows, the pick could turn out to be another Josh Fields or Jeff Clement. Right now the market is not so great for Swisher, we may not have to pay him as much and for as many years as you think. I would love to have Hamilton, but Swisher is an option that is better than you give him credit. Yes we will have to over pay for any hitting free agent we sign, and they all have risks involved, but Seattle has to do something.
What is your plan B if they can't sign Hamilton?
|44. By: Paul Martin on 12-08-2012 17:16:08|
Espn reporting Dodgers close to signing Greinke, if that happens you can forget about Hamilton
|45. By: KingFelix on 12-08-2012 17:39:07|
Maybe we should turn our attention to trying to grab Upton from AZ since it looks like Hamiltion will get the deal he wants with TX.
|46. By: masonb on 12-08-2012 17:40:52|
I disagree. I think if Seattle goes the extra year, they still have a shot.
|47. By: baseballman on 12-08-2012 17:47:49|
Ken Rosenthaul just tweeted that the Rangers still want Upton
|48. By: rjfrik on 12-08-2012 17:50:33|
The draft pick is just part of the equation when it comes to Swisher's value. The problem with Swisher is he is very unlikely based on his peripherals to ever be worth the four, five or six year contract at 12 million per that he wants. Frankly I would be hesitant to give him a three year contract. I think he's the type of player that will decline rapidly. And frankly what kind of player is he? He's a .256 hitter who can jack 25 HR's a year. That's not a star player by any means. He's basically Kyle Seager but instead of just being introduced to the league and having a career to look forward to, he's on the down side of his career with the best years behind him. Just my two cents.
I think JZ's plan B is through trades. And I think as other people and Jack himself has mentioned if the right trade isn't there now, he will wait until next year when all of our big prospects have elevated their value. We potentially could have Hultzen, Walker, Paxton, Mauer, Franklin, Zunino all reach the bigs next year. That is a ton of firepower to have if you are looking to trade for bats. In this case patience is truly the virtue to have.
|49. By: Paul Martin on 12-08-2012 17:50:47|
Could Texas get Upton and Hamilton?
|50. By: baseballman on 12-08-2012 17:56:34|
RE 48: Exactly my thoughts.
I want Hamilton, but not at 6 years, not even 5. This organization is in a very good spot right now. The 25 man roster isn't very good, but as a hole, we have very valuable assets that can get the 25 man to where it needs to be. Now is not the time to get antsy and make rash, short sided moves. Jack Z is building a long-term sustainable winner. I hope he's not pressured into doing a Bavasi and trying to "win now" at all costs.
|51. By: Rudolf on 12-08-2012 18:42:55|
So Greinke to the Rangers.
If the Rangers turn their attention to re-signing Hamilton and succeed-- and pass on Upton-- I hope we don't ship out a bunch of prospects to Arizona to get him ourselves. It sounds like he has a bad attitude and the fences at Safeco might only frustrate the hell out of him.
If we don't sign Hamilton, and neglect Swisher because of all the above stated reasons by rjfrik and others, who exactly are we going to sign for the outfield?
What I would loathe more than anything else is to watch Jack Z ship out his magnificent farm system to fill holes that could be filled with ownership's $$$. Spend the money, keep the prospects. Who cares if Swisher stinks in three years. Spend more money.
In two years we can start trading prospects and getting REAL VALUE for them. In the meantime, sign Swisher (if he'll come here) or Cody Ross, etc..
|52. By: Rudolf on 12-08-2012 18:47:16|
I meant Dodgers.
|53. By: DRWheelock on 12-08-2012 18:58:42|
You can kiss Hamilton goodbye now. Texas won't let him get away now!
|54. By: Mariners121212 on 12-08-2012 19:14:38|
rjfrik congrats on perhaps one of the worst arguments I have ever seen in my life. I don't necessarily disagree with you on Swisher but most of your points are complete bogus.
You repeatedly refer to aging curves even though the ones you are using are very wrong. Most players hit their peak much before 32 and start declining before then. No one signing Swisher thinks that he is still in his prime. He has been one of the most consistent players in the MLB over his career, not playing more than 150 games every year from 2006 until this year when he played 148.
Your whole argument based around him hitting a lot of grounders and fly balls makes absolutely no sense. You just throw those numbers out there having no idea what they mean. His career iso is .202 which is well above league average, coming in the top 50 in the MLB. You bring up the fact that his ground ball percentage is 38.7% and then go on to say he hits a ton of ground balls. If you look at the league average of 44% he actually hits a lot less grounders than your average player. Which is obviously good because he isn't fast and is oriented around hitting for power. Not only this put ground balls have a much higher BABIP than fly balls, even with slower players. His above average fly ball rate is why he would be expected to have a lower BABIP than someone else with his speed. You also bring up his periphals on a few occasions yet completely ignore his great on base percentage. His career walk percentage of 13.3% is well above league average and has placed in the top 15 most years he has played in the MLB. This is also proven to be a stat that bodes well as players age as deteriorating bodies don't affect your body. If you want to talk about how he hits in a good hitting park then go look at park neutral stats, he has a career .359 wOBA and a 128 wRC+, meaning he has been 28% better than the league average hitter when factoring in park. He consistently hit homers in the 20's hitting 35 one year while playing in Oakland, a very pitcher friendly park. Safeco has a HR factor of 87, not half of other parks so that was wrong (http://www.parkfactors.com/SEA). You also completely ignore his defense, which is a whole other topic. Next time you try using stats, please learn what they mean first.
Sure, by completely ignoring his best statistic and misusing others you can sure make him look terrible. I don't personally think he will be good for 4 or 5 years, and would like to have him for less. But, as the market for him is going down by the day he is appearing to be one of our best options on the free agent market.
|55. By: DRWheelock on 12-08-2012 19:15:12|
I would actually like to see Z pull off the following if we miss out on Hamilton:
1. Viciedo LF
2. Myers RF
3. Capuano SP
3. Sign Bourn for CF
We'd save approx $15M on Vargas and Gutz salaries, and be spending on Bourn. Our payroll wouldn't budge from what it is now, despite knowing we have tons yet to spend....
Nearly all of Seattle players would be very young under team control for years to come. And you'd be looking at a core group lineup:
* (Depends upon who we have to give up for Myers & Viciedo)
Walker, Paxton, Hulten
|56. By: Mariners121212 on 12-08-2012 19:15:54|
Also, just realized I completely misspelled peripherals.
|57. By: Mariners121212 on 12-08-2012 19:21:40|
Oh, and yeah, his HR/FB rate is actually good. Anyone who hits a majority of their fly balls for homers isn't human. You also say he hits a lot of fly balls and ground balls, which you can't possibly do. You can't hit an above average amount of both unless you hit zero line drives, while his is right around league average.
|58. By: Wishhiker on 12-08-2012 20:18:17|
Dayan Viciedo is said to possibly be available. He hit .255 with 25 HR last year at age 23. Comparing him to Swisher, who got his first taste at 23, using MiL #'s: Swisher .261 /.381 /.476 (.857) in 1427 PA Viciedo .284/.332/.453(.784) in 1408 PA. So Basically The Outfield Def, a slight amount of power (maybe?) and about 50 points of patience separate the 2 at age 23. But one is on the rise almost certainly while the other is as likely to decline. Swisher will probably cost a lot more overall too.
|59. By: rotoenquire on 12-08-2012 20:19:03|
The market was just set to extened Felix. 6 years 165 is what it may take too up The King. As too my Young comment, granted he was worse the last year and he is on the decline. However with Texas eating most of his contract and all u would have to give up was a reliever and a promising SP. Add to that the numerous reports how the Ms have been interested in Young sense JackZ started with the Ms. One would think they would have been in the converasion. You can't put a price on leadership and a winning mentality.
|60. By: Wishhiker on 12-08-2012 20:23:30|
Viciedo is a worse Outfield defender than Swisher, but also has played the infield corners. He's kind of the White Sox Mike Carp to Outfield move. Swisher would probably go in right, Viciedo probably fits better in LF. I think Viciedo offers more overall than Swisher (aside from experience) at a much lower cost to acquire.
|61. By: Panhead55 on 12-08-2012 20:27:49|
Personally I would have loved for the Ms to spend 6/155, if that would have gotten us Greinke. With him in tow we then perhaps trade Paxton for Choo and Walker/Vargas for Myers+. We'd still have Hulzen and Maurer for the future, we'd have bats, and we'd have a rotation led by Felix, Greinke, Iwakuma, and Ramirez. We'd still have a bullpen with power arms. We'd still have our number 12 pick where Jack can do what he does best, and rebuild our pitching prospects. That would have made us competitive now and in the future. Alas it is not to be.
|62. By: Wishhiker on 12-08-2012 20:50:41|
Hadn't refreshed while researching, DRWheel...
I like Viciedo,, but don't know if Guti would cut it. We may only have Saunders that they'd want. They are looking for a CF for more than just one year. Maybe a bullpen arm or 3rd team would work better.
I don't like Bourn at all. We can defend center well enough in comparison to how we can not extend innings on offense. Bourn doesn't help much on offense. I like higher OBP than .339 from leadoff and would rather leave Ackley there and Saunders in center to add a bat to corner outfield and middle of the lineup.
|63. By: Rudolf on 12-08-2012 20:55:03|
@61: We don't need Greinke to achieve your plan:
Sign Anibal Sanchez and do the same thing. Spend the extra cash on Ross or Swisher and keep Walker.
|64. By: Panhead55 on 12-09-2012 07:57:24|
I agree we don't need Greinke, but he would have made our rotation that much better. With all the new media money coming into the game, I believe that in one or two years Greinke's contract will prove to be a very good one.
|65. By: maqman on 12-09-2012 11:13:47|
Mariners121212 I share your view on Swisher and I've only recently come around to it. When Dave Cameron said we should go for him a month or ,so ago I thought it was a crap idea but now it seems the most realistic choice and Z has said anything they do will have to be realistic. Right now Swisher's choice seem to be between us and the Indians, as his potential suitors have fallen by the wayside. I don't think we have to give him more than four years at this point. Hamilton is special I grant that, I still think his display in the Home Run Contest was one of my top five baseball experiences. However, his performance the last half of last season was ominous and his red flags leave too high of an albatross factor for my comfort level. (He has admitted drinking alcohol twice in the past two years by the way.) Additionally, with Texas shipping out Young and Greinke becoming a Dodger, the probability Texas will match any offer Z will make is high. If so Swisher seems the best choice to me.
|66. By: Edman on 12-09-2012 12:34:35|
I agree on Swisher as well. Would he be a great free agent signing? No, he comes with risk, but he can be a valuable guy. I'm certainly not basing it on anything that Dave Cameron believes. He's a smart guy, but often lets his personal bias enter his math. But, regardless, the whole concept that Nick Swisher needs to be exactly what he is now, is a bit overstated. The idea that after you pass a certain age, that declines will become dramatic, is way too simple.
All free agents come with risks. Either play the game, or don't and bitch about how unfair or non-valuable it is. But if you do, don't criticize Jack for not doing what you have decided he shouldn't do. My personal observations rate the overall value of signing Swisher to be greater than the value of a first roung pick to a team that is trying to compete now, not five years into the future. Baseball is a gamble. Either get dealt in at the black jack table, or go play the penny slots, because it's less risky.
The idea that not having the 12th overall pick in this years draft will have negative consequences to the team in the future historically isn't true. It's as full of risk to believe that pick is more valuable than Nick Swisher, as it is to believe that the pick wlll net you someone as good or better. History dictates that the later is not true.
I understand that rjfrik is passionate, we all are to some extent. But none of us know how well Swisher will play for the Mariners. And to those who like to parallel him to Richie Sexson, you're very misinformed, to be blunt. They are not the same kind of hitters, and Swisher is not a right-handed hitter in Safeco Field, pre the fence changes.
I'm not going to lose sleep either way. But I won't fault Jack if he signs him. There is no "one" solution to Seattle's offensive issues.
|67. By: d2ret on 12-09-2012 15:07:10|
Kind of looks like a hostile takeover by the Dodgers and their ownership...
|68. By: Edman on 12-09-2012 17:40:40|
He who has the latest and greatest Broadcasting rights, rules.
This is going to be a chronic problem for all Major League teams, and it will crush the mid to lower market teams.
What's Seattle's deal going to be work in a couple years? It's insane.
|69. By: d2ret on 12-09-2012 18:46:09|
Well perfect timing for the M's to start competing then.... in theory.
|70. By: d2ret on 12-09-2012 20:08:35|
Couple tradesterbations for you all to pick apart/break down:
Jaso, Ryan, Capps, Hicks to Dodgers
D.Gordon, Z. Lee, Capuano
Tom Wilhemsen, or Nick Franklin+Carson Smith for Anthony Gose.
|71. By: d2ret on 12-09-2012 20:14:54|
Probably needs to be Ramirez instead of Capps...
|72. By: marinermutt on 12-09-2012 20:23:26|
Looks like Myers to TB for Shields and W. Davis.
|73. By: marinermutt on 12-09-2012 20:24:46|
We didn't have anyone to compete with Shields unless we picked up a Holland or someone else to then flip for Myers.
|74. By: aerichner on 12-09-2012 20:41:54|
On the surface, Royals DO help themselves but that's a STEEEEEEP price to pay.
I dont like the deal for the Royals (doubt the PTBNL will tip the scales in their favor) but if he had a deal like this in mind, why the hell re-sign Guthrie? Trade for Santana? Tender Hochevar? That's ~25 million they could've used elsewhere.
They'll compete in that crappy division. Hell, they might win the division...but wow. Andrew Friedman is a beast of a GM...but we already knew that.
|75. By: rotoenquire on 12-09-2012 21:04:57|
An actual ace for KC and a decent #4 who took a step back last year. KC is making a run for it, and Butler is not on the block at all now. No way, you pay that too only give up any of your top bats already at the Major League lvl. Also Shields has 2 years left if they faulter this year or near the end next year. They can get some of what they paid back.
|76. By: Juan Valdez on 12-09-2012 21:11:12|
That sucks. Myers belongs in a Mariner uniform. Oh well, I have to assume that Jack tried. I know next to nothing about James Shields, but it sounds like KC got the guy they wanted, so good on them. It might be interesting to have a competitive KC in the AL for once.
|77. By: masonb on 12-09-2012 21:24:30|
That move is all kinds of stupid for KC. Good lord. They gave up way too much talent for that return. Yes Davis is solid and Shields is great, but Friedman just robbed Moore.
|78. By: Edman on 12-09-2012 23:52:11|
It depends on how you look at it, mason. To Kansas City, it was worth it. Not every trade has to be about universal worth, but rather worth to the team. Kansas City desperately needed starting pitching to be able to compete with their current group of hitters.
|79. By: Edman on 12-10-2012 00:02:35|
Two other things.....
They'll compete in that crappy division. Hell, they might win the division.
Isn't the the purpose for playing every year?
Juan Valdez said:
That sucks. Myers belongs in a Mariner uniform.
The only place that was true was in yours and a few other people's minds. Seattle never had what it too to get Myers.
|80. By: VikingArthur on 12-10-2012 22:27:59|
It is funny that "wow...they overpaid but they may actually win that crappy division" is said in a pejorative tone.
KC HASN'T WON ANYTHING IN 25 YEARS! Trading some 21 year old kid for two legit starters (one being a frontliner who has pitched in actual pressure situations in games that matter) can't be seen as anything other than taking future assets and expected value and exchanging it for present value. Kansas City sees the division as winnable. It is. They figured they needed a couple of arms to do it. They went and got them. Could they have given up the next superstar? Sure. You have to understand the windows teams like KC (and Tampa) work in... by 2014-15 when Myers will have really hit his stride the other guys (Butler, Gordon, Moose, Cain, Perez, Hosmer) start to get spendy. The truth is their young offensive core is good enough to compete. The M's WISH they had six guys like that in their lineup... they don't have ONE! Teams like the Royals have a one or two year window every 6-8 years when they can realistically go for it. They are going for it and I applaud them for it.
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