| By Marc Hulet |  | By 03-05-2013 |
Last week I wrote an overview of the rookie picture in the Major Leagues. This week I'm starting a division-by-division breakdown of the potential impact rookies for each club. We're not likely to see the same impact that the MLB Rookie Class of 2012 had, with the likes of Washington Nationals right fielder Bryce Harper, Los Angeles Angels centerfielder Mike Trout and Tampa Bay Rays southpaw Matt Moore, but the Rookie Class of 2013 offers some intriguing potential among its most promising members.
Let's examine:
Seattle Mariners
Rookie: Mike Zunino
Position: Catcher
Roadblock/Competition: Jesus Montero
2012 Starter: John Jaso (2.7 WAR)
Although they haven't publicly placed expectations on the rookie, Seattle is clearly counting on Zunino to reach the majors quickly after the front office traded 2012 starter John Jaso to the Oakland Athletics. The veteran backstop had the 12th-best WAR among MLB catchers last year.
Second-year MLBer Jesus Montero, who spent the majority of last season at DH, is projected to be the starter behind the dish when 2013 begins, but his defense remains a huge question mark. He threw out just 17 percent of base runners attempting to steal last year (56 games).
Rookie: Nick Franklin
Position: Shortstop/Second Baseman
Roadblock/Competition: Brendan Ryan
2012 Starter: Brendan Ryan (1.7 WAR)
Franklin whetted the appetites of Mariners fans when he slugged 23 home runs at the A-ball level during his first full season of pro ball in 2010. The former first-round draft pick is a solid prospect but he's not likely to hit for that kind of power at the big league level with a projected top-out around 12-15 home runs a year during his prime.
After splitting 2012 between Double-A and Triple-A, Franklin is on the cusp of reaching the majors but he likely needs a little more polish in the minors before he challenges defensive whiz Brendan Ryan for the starting big league job at shortstop. Second base remains another option but Dustin Ackley probably isn't going anywhere -- unless the club feels he'd be of more value at another position.
Rookie: Carter Capps
Position: High-Leverage Reliever
Roadblock/Competition: None
2012 Starter: Brandon League (0.4 WAR)
The Mariners' bullpen depth isn't as deep as it has been in the past, which pretty much guarantees the hard-throwing Capps a significant role in the 2013 bullpen. Key contributors from a year ago that now find themselves on other clubs included Shawn Kelley (Yankees), Brandon League (Dodgers), and Steve Delabar (Blue Jays).
Capps has the talent to step into a high-leverage role right away and could eventually challenge Tom Wilhelmsen for the closer's role.
Rookie: Stephen Pryor
Position: Reliever
Roadblock/Competition: None
2012 Starter: Steve Delabar (-0.4 WAR)
Like Capps, Pryor stands to benefit from the decreased bullpen depth. With an average fastball velocity of more than 96 mph and a 90 mph cutter-slider, the right-handed rookie clearly has the stuff to dominate.
Unfortunately, he needs to polish both his command and control before he realizes his true potential. He also needs to find a way to have more success away from Safeco Field (opponents batting average: .196 at home vs .289 on the road) and avoid the long ball.
Rookie: Danny Hultzen
Position: Starting Pitcher
Roadblock/Competition: Blake Beavan
2012 Starter: Blake Beavan (0.3 WAR)
Hultzen's control issues were well-documented last season. The good news is that it appears to have been more of a half-year blip than a career trend, brought on by inconsistent mechanics. With that said, the southpaw does need to polish his control to reach his ceiling of No. 2 starter at the big league level.
A quick start to the 2013 season at triple-A could catapult Hultzen into the big league rotation; his skill level is probably higher than Blake Beavan's, even with control that's a work-in-progress.
Rookie: Brandon Maurer
Position: Starting Pitcher
Roadblock/Competition: Erasmo Ramirez
2012 Starter: Erasmo Ramirez (0.9 WAR)
The most recent addition to The Big Three -- now known as The Big Four -- Maurer has quite possibly passed fellow pitching prospect James Paxton on the depth chart. The right-hander has a four-pitch mix -- including two plus pitches in a fastball and slider -- and a strong build that should provide plenty of innings, assuming his checkered injury past is behind him.
Texas Rangers
Rookie: Jurickson Profar
Position: Shortstop
Roadblock/Competition: Elvis Andrus
2012 Starter: Elvis Andrus (4.2 WAR)
Arguably the best prospect in the minor leagues right now, and just 20 years old, Profar has uncanny instincts and maturity to go along with his superstar skill level. The only thing standing in his way is the lack of playing time at the big league level, thanks to the presence of Elvis Andrus, a talented young shortstop in his own right.
Second base would also be an option -- Profar is the type of talent that you try and squeeze into the starting lineup any way that you can -- but veteran Ian Kinsler is one of the better talents at the position (3.2 WAR in 2012).
Rookie: Mike Olt
Position: Third Baseman/First Baseman
Roadblock/Competition: Adrian Beltre
2012 Starter: Adrian Beltre (6.5 WAR)
Unfortunately for Olt, he has one of the best third basemen in all of the major leagues standing in his way. In an effort to get his bat into the lineup, though, Texas has explored numerous other avenues including first base, where projected starter Mitch Moreland provides questionable offensive potential, and left field, where he could offer a right-handed complement to the left-handed-hitting David Murphy.
The downside to shifting Olt elsewhere is that a ton of his value is derived from his above-average defense at the hot corner.
Rookie: Leonys Martin
Position: Centerfielder
Roadblock/Competition: Craig Gentry
2012 Starter: Josh Hamilton (4.4 WAR)
The free-agent loss of 2012 center-fielder Josh Hamilton is going to hurt the Texas Rangers, no matter how you slice it. A possible 50-game suspension to right-fielder Nelson Cruz -- after his name surfaced this past off-season during a PED investigation -- could also take a significant bite out of the already-thin outfield depth. As a result, Martin could be an important player in Texas during the coming year.
If he realizes his potential, he should play plus defense in center field, while offering a decent batting average, gap power and a handful of steals.
Rookie: Martin Perez
Position: Starting Pitcher
Roadblock/Competition: Colby Lewis (Injured)
2012 Starter: Colby Lewis (2.1 WAR)
Perez burst upon the prospect-watching landscape as a 17 year old when he held his own in the Northwest League back in 2008. His future project has been tempered a bit since that time but he could develop into a solid No. 3 starter with above-average stuff for a southpaw and ability to induce above-average ground-ball rates.
Perez, who turns 22 right around opening day, had a solid shot at breaking camp with the Rangers as the fifth starter, but suffered a setback after fracturing his forearm over the weekend, and is expected to miss at least a month.
Rookie: Cody Buckel
Position: Starting Pitcher
Roadblock/Competition: Martin Perez
2012 Starter: Colby Lewis (2.1 WAR)
Buckel doesn't have the most dynamic stuff in the Rangers system but he has perhaps the best 'pitchability.' That know-how, along with a diverse four-pitch repertoire and above-average control has helped him quickly ascend through the minor league system.
With a little more polish in the upper levels of the minor leagues, Buckel should be ready to challenge for the fifth starter's role.
Oakland Athletics
Rookie: Dan Straily
Position: Starting Pitcher
Roadblock/Competition: A.J. Griffin
2012 Starter: Travis Blackley (1.2 WAR)
After opening up the 2012 season with questionable organizational depth in the upper levels of the system, Oakland enjoyed the surprise emergence of a few arms, including A.J. Griffin and Straily. Those two pitchers will likely wage an all-out war this spring as they attempt to secure the fifth starter's gig.
Griffin likely has a leg up on the competition (15 starts in 2012 vs Straily's seven) but the A's rotation is somewhat brittle so the latter's opportunity will likely come sooner, rather than later.
Rookie: Grant Green
Position: Infielder-Outfielder
Roadblock/Competition: Jemile Weeks (2B)
2012 Starter: Jemile Weeks (0.0 WAR)
Green, a former first-round draft pick as a shortstop, has seen playing time all over the field in recent years. In speaking with the organization earlier this winter, though, I was told his focus will be on second base in the coming year.
Reading between the lines, it's clear that the organization has concerns about incumbent second baseman Jemile Weeks, who is coming off a disappointing campaign. Green's versatility could help him secure a 25-man roster spot even if Weeks performs well in the early going.
Rookie: Hiroyuki Nakajima
Position: Shortstop
Roadblock/Competition: Jed Lowrie
2012 Starter: Cliff Pennington (1.4 WAR)
After Oakland bid farewell to 2012 shortstops Cliff Pennington (traded to Arizona) and Stephen Drew (free agency), the club offered a contact to Nakajima. However, not long after agreeing to terms with the Japaense veteran, the club flipped some of its minor league depth to Houston for infielder Jed Lowrie.
The former Red Sox prospect has durability concerns and will also likely see time at second base and third base so Nakajima could still see significant playing time.
Houston Astros
Rookie: Jonathan Singleton
Position: First Baseman/Left Fielder
Roadblock/Competition: Brett Wallace
2012 Starter: Carlos Lee (0.3 WAR)
With the move to the American League in 2013, Houston went scrambling for a full-time designated hitter and came up with the likes of Carlos Pena (free agency), Nate Freiman (Rule 5 draft), and Chris Carter (trade). Singleton could have been an option for the job, as well, but a 50-game suspension for 'recreational drug use' will take a bite out of his 2013 season.
The rookie, though, could still be relevant in the second half of the year -- at DH, first base or left field -- once he gets a little bit of experience at the Triple-A level.
Rookie: Jarred Cosart
Position: Starting Pitcher
Roadblock/Competition: Alex White
2012 Starter: J.A. Happ (0.6 WAR)
Cosart has had an up-and-down career despite his solid repertoire because he's struggled with both his command and his control. Houston has a ton of starting pitcher depth but their ceilings are collectively underwhelming, so the rookie is a tantalizing option.
Cosart is not likely to realize his full potential in 2013, due to the aforementioned issues but he could still out-perform the likes of Dallas Keuchel, John Ely, and Philip Humber.
Los Angeles Angels
Rookie: Kole Calhoun
Position: Outfielder
Roadblock/Competition: Vernon Wells
2012 Starter: Vernon Wells (0.6 WAR)
The outfield picture in L.A. is fairly cloudy with the likes of Mike Trout, Pete Bourjos, Josh Hamilton, Mark Trumbo, and Vernon Wells all looking for playing time. Calhoun will likely have to wait for an opening caused by injury but he's the type of hustling player that could take full advantage of a small opportunity and make it very difficult for the club to send him back to the minors.
Follow Marc on Twitter here and email him at Hulet@ProspectInsider.com.
rookie-watch:-al-west
Comments
The following 1 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: Lonnie on 03-07-2013 01:24:29 Not much to say about Mike Zunino until he plays a bit more at a level that is more on par with his talent. I'm not even sure where that level is, but it would be great to see him dominate wherever he starts the season. Nick Franklin and anyone else who are vying for a shot at SS with the Mariners are actually blocked by Mike Morse, Kendrys Morales, Raul Ibanez, and any other position player who realizes their potential. As long as the rest of the team is hitting well the Mariners will be happy to carry a no stick all glove SS like Ryan. The only person who can get in the way of Carter Capps is ... Carter Capps. The kid is dynamite! Stephen Pryor was quoted recently as saying that he wants Tom Wilhelmsen's job (or something very much to that extent). I like that he has that kind of ambition, and as long as he is productive he very well may take over the closer role one day. Depending on how you look at it, and who you like over someone else, Hultzen is either blocked by Beaven or Ramirez. Personally, I like Erasmo, so I see him as being the better pitcher when compared to Beavan. Regardless though, right now I believe that Hultzen isn't blocked by anyone until he can prove his second half was a product of fatigue and bad mechanics. Brandon Maurer, on the other hand, truely is blocked by someone currently in the rotation. I think that with what Maurer can bring to the game that he is actually potentially blocked by guys like Jon Garland. I like this stuff. Keep it up! |
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