| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 06-16-2009 |
Since the talk of the Seattle Mariners looking into Tamp Bay Rays shortstop Reid Brignac has become a topic of conversation when Dave Cameron of USSMariner.com broke that to 710 ESPN Radio, all I've been doing is calling around and asking about Brignac.After having done so, and doing a little research, here's what I feel comfortable saying I know about Brignac:
Here are some other statistics that help describe Reid Brignac:
Versus LHP in MiLB
2004 @ Princeton (SS): .329/.393/.455 (.898 OPS v. RHP)
2005 @ Southwest Michigan (A) : .238/.314/.381 (.746 OPS v. RHP)
2006 @ Visalia (A+) : .302/.365/.442 (.974 OPS v. RHP)
2007 @ Montgomery (AA) : .286/.336/.427 (.759 OPS v. RHP)
2008 @ Durham (AAA): .236/.277/.382 (.734 OPS v. RHP)
2009 @ Durham (AAA): .258/.303/.355 (.861 OPS v. RHP)
Scout's Word
"I've seen quite a bit of Reid since day one," said one NL scout who was an area scout for the Orioles during the 2004 Draft in which Brignac was selected. "I liked him enough for round one and thought they (Tampa) got a steal in the second. He's had his ups and downs, but he's putting it all together. He's still young and has time to polish off his game and be an all-star."
While All-star might be a bit much to ask, there's no doubting Brignac's tools. His work ethic can't be questioned, either.
"When a young player gets that much better with the glove and on the bases between seasons, he's put in a lot of extra time," the scout said. "In my days in player development, the hardest worker I ever saw was a kid that never played. But Brignac has some physical ability. He can play shortstop, hit, and he's a smart enough player to make short and long-term adjustments in the big leagues. He'll just need some experience in the majors to get acclimated."
I also asked the same scout (a former minor league manager and big-league third baseman) about Brignac's splits versus left-handers.
"This is something certain organizations are more bullish with right away, while others are patient and allow the kids time. The specialists in this game make it tougher than it's ever been, and now arms don't make the show, even in relief, if you can't get out hitters from your side. Left-handers in the big leagues all have out pitches versus lefty sticks. And they are in the big leagues for that reason. I wouldn't put Brignac in that corner before he's had a full seasons or two against lefties -- in the major leagues."
This echos my own thoughts; platooning a 23-year-old with almost no big-league experience who has pop and generally gives himself a chance at the plate is selling the player short and ultimately hurting the team.
You can't have a group of platoons on one roster and Seattle might have to do such a thing with Franklin Gutierrez at some point. So unless you can find a good switch-hitting SS/CF for reserve money -- good luck with that, they are all regulars-- one of them will have to face everyone.
Tools
Hitting for Average/On-Base Skills
Brignac's contact rates have improved somewhat and he's never been Brandon Wood in the strikeout column, which should help him maintain respectable batting averages. He's revamped his swing and approach a little bit this season -- a lot of Tampa Bay Rays bats have done this (Ben Zobrist, Jason Bartlett) and he's giving up a little bit of power to be able to sustain his average more consistently. He works the count some, but he's never going to draw 80 walks a year or anything.
If he can learn to go the other way more effectively, he may hit .280 or better. But he gets into stretched where he's looking to do too much and tries to pull everything, similar to Jeff Clement.
Now: 45
Future: 55
Hitting for Power
Even with the shorter swing with a longer path in the zone, Brignac still possesses above-average power, created by the above-average bat speed he generates. The key will be his discipline, as he tends to chase balls and is too often fooled by good breaking balls down.
But make a mistake and he can and will make the pitcher pay enough to change the way he's pitched the next time around.
Now: 50
Future: 55+
Arm Strength
Brignac won't wow anyone with Troy Tulowitzki-like arm strength, but there's plenty there and his release is quick enough and very consistent.
His throws from second on double plays have improved dramatically since 2006, right along with the rest of his defense.
Now: 50
Future: 50
Speed and Base running
Brignac is not a burner, and isn't likely to steal more than 10-15 bags a year in the big leagues. But he's a smart baserunner with above-average speed.
Now: 55
Future: 55
Defensive Range, Reliability
Brignac's worked with Tampa minor league coach Manny Castillo and big-league infield coach (and former Mariners 3rd base coach) Dave Myers to shore up his present skills and polish up the raw versions.
After showing lateral range deficiencies in 2006, Brignac's work has paid off and one scout called him the "best glove of the bigger, bat-oriented shortstops," that includes Wood, Jason Donald, Chris Nelson and Todd Frazier.
He turns two at average or better levels and while he's still not as sure-handed, so to speak, as he will be, it's not a matter of if, it's just a matter of when he gets there. A Gold Glove is not out of the question, though he's unlikely to make the flashy plays voters tend to be fooled by.
Now: 50
Future: 55-60
Boy all of that up there sounds an awful lot like Nick Franklin's absolute ceiling, minus the pop.
Overall, Brignac is a good player with no glaring weaknesses and would help the Mariners on the field immediately on the defensive side and would bring a little bit of a different element to the lineup despite the probability that struggles making contact -- and versus lefties -- for the time being.
I wouldn't trade Bedard and Clement for Brignac straight up, but only because I think the club can do better for Bedard. But there isn't one player on the roster not named Felix Hernandez that, in a vacuum, I wouldn't trade to get Brignac.
His presence, as Cameron noted today via e-mail, possibly helps Felix Hernandez go from really good to insanely good, statistically, and he saves the club the hassle of the ongoing search for middle infield help -- times TWO.
If the Mariners landed Brignac, for whoever, they could probably start focusing on the 2010 rotation and choose between a new 3B or a new 2B in other trades.
I have no idea how likely it is Seattle can obtain Brignac, and I don't think Bedard is a match for the Rays in any sense -- they aren't able to look toward October sitting five games back in the East with three teams to climb and three games back in the Wildcard race with two teams to pass, and renting players has never been their MO -- but maybe some combination of David Aardsma (who they could keep beyond 2009, as he's not FA eligible) and Clement could get it done.
Tampa's going to need bullpen help no matter what happens with Scott Kazmir, so we could see TB call about DA whether it has anything to do with Brignac or not, and though Tampa's MO has also never been about trading young players, Bartlett isn't losing his job, a contending club probably wants more out of their 2B than what Brignac could give them (plus, he's played all of two innings there as a pro -- ZERO in the minors) and their future at shortstop is Tim Beckham, last year's No. 1 pick.
reid-brignac,-ss
Comments
The following 16 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: kringent on 06-16-2009 15:34:19 Thanks for this analysis. Two things aren't quite clear to me from the wording: 1) Nick Franklin's ceiling is more pop than Brignac? and 2) you say Brignac has Troy Tulowitzki like arm strength though nobody will be wowed by it. I don't get this. |
| 2. By: Blowgun7 on 06-16-2009 15:47:43 Jason, great writeup. Definately a guy I would love to see in an M's uniform. I just don't see how we get him. They are a smart organization, so Im not sure they view Clement as useful. Bedard just doesn't seem like a guy Tampa would target. I think they like what they have at the big league level and minor league level with the exception of relievers, and Im not sure a deal centered around Aardsma gets Brignac. Jason, looking forward to next season. Can Branyan play a respectable 3B? If he can, it would seem ideal to slot him over there to allow room for a guy like Clement and Carp. I know long term Carp isn't an answer, but just for next year, could something like that work? |
| 3. By: rjfrik on 06-16-2009 15:53:47 kringet, re-read the article. He doesn't say that. Nick Franklin's ceiling is Brignac, minus the pop. So a .280 hitter that has no pop and is a fairly decent middle infielder, defensively. He said that Brignac doesn't have a Tulowitzki arm. |
| 4. By: Gustafson on 06-16-2009 16:00:31 Slightly off-topic but relevant to future Seattle Mariners. Ackley is 5-5 so far in today's CWS game. |
| 5. By: kringent on 06-16-2009 16:51:56 rjfrik, not that it's a big deal, but i re-read the article twice and i still get the opposite impression that you get. the actual words in the article are "his Troy Tulowitzki-like arm strength". that seems pretty clear to me. |
| 6. By: Gustafson on 06-16-2009 17:03:33 Well he says he "won't wow anyone with his Tulowitzki-like arm strength." Tulo has a gun for an arm so his point is Brignac doesn't have a Tulo arm. It'd be like me saying "I won't impress anyone on the basketball court with my Lebron James hops." The point is I lack the hops... Similarly, Brignac doesn't have a Tulowitski arm. But no one other than Furcal does. |
| 7. By: micahjr on 06-16-2009 17:05:51 Beat me to it. |
| 8. By: micahjr on 06-16-2009 17:21:59 I have one question, Jason. Why doesn't Bedard fit in Tampa? They have Andy Sonnanstine currently in their rotation with a 6.65 ERA and 90 hits given up in 73 innings, and they are still in competition for the play-offs. Dave already explained that they are trying to get a new stadium, and a play-off presence, or world series win would put them in better position to accomplish that. If they can improve their starting pitching, they could win it all this year. Why would they not take Bedard to do that? He's a rental, that is why other players would have to go there in the trade, but he is a rental that could put them over the top in the AL East. |
| 9. By: kringent on 06-16-2009 17:22:47 [waving a white flag] |
| 10. By: rjfrik on 06-16-2009 17:53:41 No worries kringent. Jason was just being facetious. Just the way he writes. |
| 11. By: Jason A. Churchill on 06-16-2009 19:07:43 The word "his" was a typo. Remove it, changes the sentence entirely. re: Branyan, Not really. |
| 12. By: Jason A. Churchill on 06-16-2009 19:26:16 Michahjr, Bedard is a health-risk rental. That's why he doesn't fit. And Bedard isn't likely to push Tampa past three other clubs in the East-- not unless two of those clubs fall apart. |
| 13. By: CrustyJuggler on 06-16-2009 21:30:57 Thanks for the report on this guy Jason. Great stuff as always. |
| 14. By: micahjr on 06-17-2009 02:38:41 Tampa is 5 games back from Boston, 3 back from the Yankees, tied with Toronto, and 1.5 off of the wildcard, which right now is the Angels. With the collapse of Texas imminent, I think Tampa is in good position to buy. They are also lacking offense from both their catchers and their DHs (Burrell, and Dillon), so if Clement was the pairing, I would argue that they could pass the Red Sox and the Yankees, or just hold their good position for the Wildcard. There is a lot of logic to them being Bedard + someone else buyers, especially if that someone is Clement. Two clubs don't need to fall apart for Tampa to make the playoffs, only one does, if all other things remain stable; that team is Texas. |
| 15. By: John_S on 06-17-2009 12:03:03 micahjr- Your premise makes sense if Clement hits in the majors. I don't think there's any indication that Clement is going to help a playoff contending teams run this year with his bat. He's below average at catcher so he would have to be the DH which leads back to his bat. If I was the Rays, I don't know if I would bite on a pitcher who's had health issues and has not been able to make it past the 6th inning and a catcher/DH who has not shown an ability to hit major league pitching. |
| 16. By: micahjr on 06-17-2009 20:29:14 I was wrong. So, so wrong. The right call goes to Jason Churchill. Bedard to 15 day DL. Guess we should sign him to a 3 year extension and try to acquire a SS with other pieces. I hope you are right, Jason, that Aardsma may help acquire Brignac. I think Bedard is a good buy at 13 million for 3 years. At least he would never impede the development of any of our young pitchers. |
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