Prospect Insider - Pulaski's Prospects

Pulaski's Prospects

By Chris Crawford

By 07-31-2010

UPDATE 12:39 PM -- Are the M's on the verge of moving one of their bigger off-season acquisitions? The rumor mill is open -- and updated at 12:36 PM PT on 7/31/2010 for subscribers!

Seattle and Pulaski have only been associated with each other for two and a half seasons -- but there has been a decent pattern of what kind of prospects the Mariners choose to send down to the Appalachian League. Outside of Steven Baron, the majority of players that end up in Pulaski are players fresh from the VSL, or college players who Seattle isn't comfortable with in Clinton or Everett. The majority of high school kids are going to end up in Peoria, and with good reason -- more accountability and easier to follow the progress.

Because of this, we haven't seen very many "top" prospects end up in Virginia -- but that doesn't mean that there aren't players to watch. I recently had the opportunity to make my way to Danville, Virginia (yes, it's the utopia that you'd imagine) to see Pulaski take on the Braves' Appy League organization -- and two guys really stood out in my viewing.

George Mieses, RHP
Mieses is listed at 6-foot-2 and 180 pounds, but is probably an inch shorter and ten pounds heavier than that. The right-hander started to gain a following after putting together a 2.19 ERA with a 79-20 K/BB in the Dominican League. So far in 2010, Mieses has put up solid numbers -- posting a 3.11 ERA with only five walks and 26 strikeouts in his 37 2/3 innings.

Mechanically, Mieses is solid for a nineteen year-old, but has some work to do. While the righty does a solid job of staying balanced, he does have a tendency to open up, which leads to the occasional fastball up in the zone. Mieses' arm-slot is probably closer to 3/4 then straight over the top.

Mieses' best pitch is his fastball -- and it's a good one. He is able to command it well, and has good sink and at times some arm-side run. The stadium scoreboard had Mieses sitting in the 91 to 95 mph range, which was probably a couple ticks fast -- in spring training, Churchill saw Mieses throw 17 pitches, 13 for strikes, topping out at 92 on a scouts gun.

Mieses also features what appeared to be a slurve -- which had decent break but needs work. You can tell that the young man from Santo Domingo doesn't have great feel for the pitch yet. When he did show his front side early, the pitch was easily viewable to the Danville hitters, and when Mieses was hit hard it was off of the breaking ball. His third pitch is a change-up, which was almost non-existent. By my count Mieses was at about 65 percent fastball, 30 percent breaking-ball and five percent change-up.

I was impressed with what I saw in Mieses. The ability to command your fastball at 19 is impressive, and it does feature good sink which could be the key to his development. He reminded of a young Joel Pineiro -- without the breaking-ball that was so tough on right-handers for the beginning of his career. I wouldn't be surprised to see Mieses in Clinton to start 2011, and that's where we can judge the results better as he faces better bats. Definitely a guy to keep your eye on though.

Ramon Morla, 3B
Morla was signed all the way back in 2006, but is in his first full year of state-side baseball this year. Mprla's numbers in his first three years of the system were far from awe-inspiring -- posting OPS well below .800 from 2007-2009.

This year though, something has clicked for the young third-basemen. Marla had only hit eight home runs combined before this summer. This year he's already put up nine, with a .600 slugging percentage and an OPS over .900.

I was only able to see Morla take batting practice on Wednesday -- but it was an impressive display. He's able to generate impressive bat-speed due to strong wrists and generates some coil with his swing too. Morla generates a lot of his power with his legs, but the swing is far from effortless and there is some wasted motion in the right-hander's swing.

Unfortunately, the two games I saw were far from impressive. The Dominican native went hitless in his seven at-bats with four strikeouts. On Wednesday, Morla faced Willie Kempf, a former Baylor star who's put up some dominating numbers in the Appy League -- and Morla was just over-matched. There's a big difference in the level of competition and age between Kempf and Morla, and expecting Morla to do well against a guy who was pitching in the Big 12 against quality competition just two months ago is probably unfair -- but Morla's pitch recognition and ability to hit a breaking-ball were each well exposed.

Overall, those were really the only two guys who stood out from my trip. Jharmidy De Jesus is still recovering from his injury, and the rest of the roster really is likely fodder. But Mieses, and maybe Morla, are guys that could be potential contributers, many years down the road.

Morla will have to show at higher levels that his power is no fluke, since he's 20 and hasn't made consistent contact this season, tempering the power numbers.

pulaski\'s-prospects

Comments
The following 63 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: csiems on 07-31-2010 11:34:17
Great work as always guys!

Is there really no one worth keeping tabs on down there? I've been excited by Bischoff's 11.3K/2.6BB rate. And it looks like Blash just joined the team a week ago (having all of one hit in twenty AB's, but with a slightly encouraging eye). Or are only commenting on who you saw during your trip?

2. By: Chris Crawford on 07-31-2010 12:33:42
There just isn't a lot there -- Blash joined the team after I went to Danville, but I plan on making another trip late August to see if anyone else joins the team. Morla and Mieses are clearly the best things I saw, everything else looked pretty below-average to not worth mentioning.

3. By: safecochatter on 07-31-2010 13:17:18
there is not a lot of talent in the nw league this year either. i always check out Spokane(texas) a few times every year,but not much to check out this year. and they are doing well in their division...

4. By: Jerry on 07-31-2010 13:40:47
Chris,

Not that impressed with Juan Rivero? The two are the same age, but Rivero is putting up better numbers. Since he was a big bonus signing from a few years ago, I figured that his tools are probably good. After a hot start, it seems like Morla is slowing down. How do the two compare in terms of tools/scouting? And can Rivero play a legit CF, or is he destined to a corner OF position? What did you think of him?

5. By: Jerry on 07-31-2010 13:41:30
...and, by "Juan Rivero", I am naturally referring to Jose Rivero.

6. By: Lailoken on 07-31-2010 14:46:00
I was kinda hoping Jake "Pac-10 Defensive Player of the Year" Schlander plays a solid shortstop. Your not noting him & his 12 errors in 33 games say otherwise. Oh well.

7. By: safecochatter on 07-31-2010 15:12:52
Smoak optioned to Tacoma. what else is gonna happen today...
has the trade deadline passed?

8. By: JohnMcD on 07-31-2010 15:15:18
Yea deadline passed and no deals

9. By: masonb on 07-31-2010 15:54:58
Is there a reason the trade deadline ends at 4pm. EST? Seems like they could at least make it until midnight. Can teams technically trade now but the players would have to pass through waivers. Would seem kind of odd considering it is still July 31

10. By: John_S on 07-31-2010 16:01:02
Do you know if the Dodgers oferred McDonald and Lambo to the M's? If so don't know why jack would turn that down.

11. By: slick on 07-31-2010 16:01:29
McDonald and Lambo for Dotel wonder if Dodgers shoped this package for League or Aardsma.

12. By: jd7979 on 07-31-2010 16:22:05
So nothing happened?

13. By: d2ret on 07-31-2010 19:47:22
Hermida DFA'd. Will Jack take a flyer?

14. By: Edman on 07-31-2010 21:02:46
McDonald and Lambo for either Aardsma or League, doesn't impress me.

15. By: acqb1424 on 07-31-2010 21:18:49
Blake Beavan and Josh Lueke were promoted to Tacoma today...Jason, what do you think of the promotions? I was at the gate when they arrived and we were all trying to figure out who were the two guys with the Texas Rangers bags...we assumed it was these two, but weren't sure.

16. By: DMac33 on 07-31-2010 21:26:42
Re: Smoak Being Optioned

Great message to send the kid (and yes, I do realize he's been struggling with the bat.

But on the other hand, 3 weeks ago he was the starting 1B for a team that is going to be a runaway winner of the AL West. There was absolutely ZERO talk about him being "overmatched" or subject to being sent down or threatened for playing time. After being traded to arguably the worst team in the league (and anybody want to care to wager on how many losses this team would have w/o Felix and a half of a season of Lee - 2 of maybe the 5 best SPs in baseball on the same roster), within 3 weeks that team, a team that can't hit worth a damn, singles out the kid and sends him back down to AAA.

The move would only make sense under the following circumstances:

1) The team was in contention for a playoff spot - at this point the only thing that the Mariners are in contention for is ensuring that they win the #1 overall pick sweepstakes for the 2011 draft.

2) Showcasing a player for a potential trade - I'm pretty sure no contender is interested in Casey Kotchman and his .220 average regardless of how his glove is.

3) The existing player is blocking a current prospect - the Mariners have few, if any hitting prospects at high levels of their organization.

Smoak has already proven that he can rake at the AAA level. There are still definitely holes in his swings that he needs to improve on. As long as his confidence is able to remain high, he's far better off to work on his holes at the Major League level where he's going to get consistent reps. There's nothing wrong with playing, reflection, working on the holes off the field, and then taking the practice sessions out onto the field. It's not like the Mariners are playing for 2010 (or really 2011 for that matter) anyway.

17. By: DKulich44 on 07-31-2010 21:35:30
Or as Jason pointed out earlier, it could be about:

4) Service time - If they hold him out a couple months now, and a little time next season, they're going to save money. Also, he can go hit in AAA, get acclimated with the coaching staff, iron out some things, and do it without the pressure of playing in the Majors.

18. By: DMac33 on 07-31-2010 21:40:51
Why would promotions be seen as anything but a positive? Either they were earned (both have numbers this season that would suggest that a promotion is deserved).

If by some reason the promotions were less than deserved, then I'd say that that's a reflection of how devoid of talent the Mariner minor league system is - particularly at the top levels.

The Mariners would be well served over the next few months to figure out which players that are at the AA and AAA level are players that are part of the solution.

For all intents and purposes, there are no quick offensive solutions for this organization. The organization will continue to talk about payroll this and that for the near future. The team is more than just 1-2 middle of the order bats away from turning things around. It'd be ridiculous to pay big money in free agency for those bats in the offseason.

2011 needs to be all about getting the young kids in this organization ABs and reps. Saunders needs to be given 130-140+ games to determine whether or not he can be an everyday caliber player or whether or not he's part of the solution as a platoon against RHP only. Provided that Ackley finishes up 2010 strong in the minors, 2011 needs to be about getting him positioned to get his ABs and comfortable at 2B at the major league level. Smoak needs to be given the opportunity to get 500+ ABs and the chance to develop into the kind of middle of the order presence that this franchise has historically never produced internally (save for rare exceptions and #1 overall picks).

The organization also needs to strongly look at finding the best bat possible for the 2011 1st overall pick unless there is a Strasburg quality arm out there. Ideally, the #1 overall pick will be a player that is either an OF or 3B (Anthony Rendon immediately comes to mind).

19. By: DMac33 on 07-31-2010 21:56:10
Re: Service Time

There are two schools of thought on the matter.

1) From the organization's standpoint, there is always a balance between development levels and club control. I get that. However, I'm pretty sure that the Rangers did a pretty good job of that already when they initially called him up - I think that they called him up a matter of days after the service time clock turned so that he'd be under club control for another year. Now, there may be other issues in play (i.e. he'd be a Super 2 right now and I'm not sure how much time he'd have to be in the minors before he'd no longer be a Super 2) that could make some sense. But again, are any of the benefits of sending him down (outside of perhaps rebuilding some confidence) that may be related to future salary-related reasons (or savings related to the club) or a greater benefit to the club than the player getting on-the-job training? In other words, what "cost" does the organization place on a player getting on-the-job training?

2) If a move is done from a "money" perspective, there are always the issues surrounding how the player perceives the move. If the player thinks that the organization is trying to withhold him from being able to make money, delay free agency, etc., that could come back to bite the organization in future negotiations and/or increasing the players desire to test free agency. Again, as I mentioned earlier, the fact that said player was good enough to start for the runaway division leaders (and no discussion was ever present about sending him down with that club) yet isn't good enough to start for a last place team with a roster full of players that can't hitwould definitely be a difficult pill to swallow.

I can definitely see legitimate reasons for sending the player down depending on the circumstances associated with the big club. I just don't see many of them applicable to THIS team.

20. By: Rudolf on 07-31-2010 22:33:23
Dmac, you raise some good points.

However, going from the aforementioned runaway division leaders and the confidence all that brings, to a different climate, ballpark, atmosphere, etc., appears to have spun the guy out. Maybe a month in AAA will help him get his mojo back.

If he weren't struggling so badly the Super Two issue wouldn't be an issue at all.

21. By: Juan Valdez on 07-31-2010 23:02:39
Sending Smoak down is a great move. Aside from issues of service time and what not, the atmosphere in that clubhouse must be beyond dysfunctional at this point. Much better to send him down and get him away from all that crap, and also let him work on his hitting in a lower pressure environment. Keep him down there in August while the veterans play out the string and then bring him up in September when rosters expand.

22. By: Lailoken on 07-31-2010 23:09:59
Dmac,

Kotchman has a .982 OPS in 20 July games. If he keeps it up halfway through August he's tradeable with cash for something semi-useful.

23. By: FWBrodie on 07-31-2010 23:20:20
@16 When did Smoak prove "he can take at AAA"? He has something like 300 AAA ab's and hit .255 and OPSed in the mid 700's. I wouldn't call that raking at all. Couldn't it be possible that the org has a tweak or two in mind for him and that they want to give him a chance to get off on on the right foot. The kid was just dealt for the best pitcher in the AL. That in itself is going to put huge expectations in his head. Instead of allowing that frustration to continue to build, I'm glad they've set him up to go down and get his mind back on playing the game and working to get better. His quick promotion to the show may have largely been a product of the Rangers' disgust with Chris Davis' awful start.

24. By: Edman on 07-31-2010 23:47:34
Smoak is gonna be OK. Some of you worry about too much.

As far as the Kotchman thing goes, I'm pretty sure that if money was the issue, Seattle would just release him before next season. I don't recall that they're on the hook for a dime next year, unless they offer him arbitration, which they aren't obligated to do. So how does an August trade accomplish anything as far as money goes? Am I missing something? I can understand adding a prospect, but I don't get the saving money thing.

25. By: Edman on 07-31-2010 23:50:09
Sorry, I get it. Seattle would send cash. I get it now.

26. By: ericmcrae on 08-01-2010 00:53:53
Chris, your information is truly invaluable. You are truly a gentleman and a scholar.

27. By: VikingArthur on 08-01-2010 02:16:44
Kotchman is what he is... a bench player. If you want to keep him around next year to be a left handed bat off the bench that would be fine. If he is not your 23rd-25th player, your team is not very good. I do have a hard time believing Carp would not be able to do the same thing that Kotchman did this year or better. If I were JZ I would just cut Kotchman and have Carp play everyday. This organization's inability to let a young guy have enough at bats has been endemic for years. Is Carp a star? No but I'd like to see what he could do for 200 ABs rather than letting Kotchman prove what everyone knows...that he is just a guy.

28. By: safecochatter on 08-01-2010 10:12:38
on the plus side yesterday. Josh Lueke was promoted to Tacoma. got in 2 innings got 4 punchouts and his first aaa save.Jason hinted in rumor mill that Lueke might just find his way to Safeco if Aardsma was traded.

as for Smoak,if he gets hot in Tacoma,he's back! M's are doing the right thing here. i don't think service time is the issue.getting Smoak's ml career started correctly is the issue.

29. By: Lailoken on 08-01-2010 12:16:29
Post trade deadline

At least Baltimore, Arizona, & Pittsburgh didn't get much worse by trading away their good players.

Baltimore traded Miguel Tejada & Will Ohman while inexplicably holding onto Ty Wiggington & Luke Scott. No big loss there as Josh Bell will likely outperform Tejada.

Arizona traded Haren, Snyder, & Edwin Jackson while also dumping Chad Qualls. Daniel Hudson & Joe Saunders make passable replacements in the rotation for this season. Snyder was a luxury with Montero around. They whiffed on the opportunity to sell high on Kelly Johnson IMO.

Pittsburgh traded Dotel, Javier Lopez, D.J. Carrasco, Bobby Crosby, & Ryan Church. With Hanrahan & Meek already on the backend filler like James McDonald will make for a decent bullpen. They also picked up Chris Snyder who makes them better. Surprised they held onto Maholm & Duke.

In summation the team's ahead of us in the draft order didn't get that much worse but they are still pretty darn awful. ;)

30. By: rjfrik on 08-01-2010 13:09:27
Lailoken,

Yeah. The teams didn't get much worse, but as I stated in an earlier post on in another thread, our main competition is Baltimore. I see no way Pitt and Zona finish worse then us, but Baltimore most likely out guns us. The reason is schedule. If you look at Baltimore's remaining schedule it's brutal. They really have one a week where they can win games and in that week is a three game home stand with against us. That series will go a long way towards us overtaking them. Hopefully they sweep, but even so, we would still be behind them by a couple of games. I just don't see it.

31. By: DMac33 on 08-01-2010 13:38:43
Baltimore's schedule may be brutal, but at least they have some talent on the team that is working their way through towards being productive major league players. Players such as Adam Jones and Matt Weiters are talented players trying to find consistency at the big league level. Being surrounded with veteran players like Nick Markakis, Ty Wiggington, Brian Roberts, and Luke Scott gives the team at least some offense - and don't forget about veterans such as Corey Patterson that are playing for a major league spot last year. They have some talented young arms in Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman among others that are going to get the opportunity to get innings at the big league level. Further, add in a new manager in Buck Showalter that is going to add accountability and a start to 2011 starting next week and my guess is that you are going to find a team that is at least going to play hard the rest of the way.

Baltimore may be horrible, but compared to the Mariners, there's at least something to work with.

32. By: DMac33 on 08-01-2010 13:44:34
Re: Post #22

The theory of trading Kotchman is nice in theory, but please answer the following question:

What contender is going to trade anything of any value for Kotchman in August? Let's run through the list:

1) Texas - just traded for Cantu
2) Minnesota - has Morneau/Cuddyer, etc.
3) White Sox - have Konerko
4) Tigers - Cabrera
5) Yankees - Tex and Berkman
6) Tampa - Pena
7) Boston - Cast of millions
8) San Diego - Gonzalez
9) San Francisco - Huff
10) Dodgers - Loney
11) Colorado - Hawpe/Helton
12) St. Louis - Pujols
13) Cincy - Votto
14) Braves - Glaus
15) Philly - Howard
16) Mets - maybe if they feel like Ike Davis has hit a wall

So of 16 teams in contention, I can maybe make a case for 1 or 2 of those teams making a move for a 1B ...

The trade market for Kotchman will I'm sure be burning a hole through Jackie Z's phone.

33. By: Lailoken on 08-01-2010 14:13:56
rjfrik,

Agree, there's now way we catch Baltimore. Pitt & Arizona... we could manage that.

DMac,

I didn't say substantial value. Cash considerations or a semi-useful low level prospect was more in line with what I was thinking. Starting 1B is a bit narrow of an analysis too. Kotchman could play DH or platoon or be a nice pinch-hitter/defensive replacement. With time he could play a suitable 'hide him in' LF in a smaller park. I'll say it again if he keeps hitting he's tradeable. Even if he plays a Doug Mientkiewicz role for somebody. No need for the excess sarcasm. He's disappointed me too but lately he's producing.

34. By: DMac33 on 08-01-2010 14:20:48
There is no excess sarcasm.

He's a free agent in the offseason if I remember correctly.

Of the teams that I mentioned above, I don't see a single team on that list (outside of what I mentioned) that I'd consider it to be likely for him to be on the roster of a contending team as a "defensive replacement."

I don't care what he's hitting in July, he won't be playing for any other team between August - October where he's going to be getting meaningful ABs.

My point is that I wouldn't put the whole "we might get a bit of cash" or "we might get a low-level prospect with a minimal chance of getting to the show" as being more important than getting a young kid that you have hopes of being a significant piece of your future needed ABs at the major league level.

35. By: brianc1279 on 08-01-2010 15:59:01
2010 looks to be a deep draft. Short of making it to the #1 spot and getting Anthony Renden you are probably just going to end up spending more money with higher draft picks and at the same time completely piss off your fand base with a historically bad season. I get that the fan base is likely to be pissed no matter what after this season but you really dont gain anything outside of the chance to spend more money on your draft picks in a deap draft. On the other hand if some of their guys can play well enough to build hope for future seasons you can at least have a shot at building some excitement for the fans.

Also keep in mind that just because we didnt make any more trades before the deadline doesnt mean that guys like Aardsma and League wont get traded in the offseason when more teams could be involved. Its important to recognize that although last year was a fun surprise its more realistic to think that it will take a few more years to fix the Bavasi era mistakes in drafting and signings.

36. By: StandinPat on 08-01-2010 19:55:31
Dmac

Casey Kotchman is under club control through 2011. The only way he becomes a free agent before 2012 is if he gets released.

And just because you don't see a fit, doesn't mean there won't be one. Injuries happen, teams look for bench help, platoon options and defensive replacements. You certainly aren't getting anything of real value for him, but there is no certainty that Kotchman won't be traded for the 4th time in just over 2 years.

As far as Smoak goes, there's really no harm in letting him get his groove back in AAA. He's a guy without a ton of professional ABs and was struggling mightily since the trade. Letting him get his head/swing back to where they need to be in a lower pressure environment could be just as beneficial if not more so, than just leaving him in Seattle looking lost on a daily basis.

37. By: rjfrik on 08-01-2010 20:39:43
You know what would be crazy? If Harper doesn't sign with the Nationals. For some reason he seems like the kind of kid that would do such a thing, especially with Boras as his agent. He is a West Coast guy after all. If that happens, the Nationals get the 2nd pick and we would get the 3rd. If Baltimore takes Rendon with the 1st, which they will, then the Nationals can't take Bryce again unless he approves it, which he wouldn't, then he would fall in our laps. I know it's a long shot, but you never know. Fun to speculate.

38. By: brockfs1 on 08-01-2010 20:44:10
@ 37
I would shit my pants if that happened! that would be insane to say the least

39. By: Mackie on 08-02-2010 00:20:19
@37
That is not outside the realm of possibility. Hadn't thought about that, but hey... you never know.

If so, and we got him, where would we play him? Catcher? OF? 3B?

40. By: Rickv25 on 08-02-2010 00:33:52
Would he be eligible to be drafted?

41. By: JohnMcD on 08-02-2010 02:35:37
That would be crazy, but why wouldn't Baltimore take him? I am just curious. Yes, they have Weiters, but Harper could move to the OF. I know that money would be an issue, but why not take him?

42. By: DMac33 on 08-02-2010 12:30:33
Re: Post #36

If Kotchman is under contract through 2011, then I'd be shocked if a club was willing to pick up not only this year but next year.

My whole point on Kotchman is that he's bringing nothing of value at this point either to the club or via trade. There's a lot of "that" in the Mariner organization.

I just don't get why people care about Kotchman and what his "trade value" is at this point ... and over time, I've seen plenty of instances of Mariner fans/followers getting all bent out of shape about a player that for all intents and purposes is no different than about 5 other players that could be picked up for a bucket of BP baseballs. I seem to recall a lot of people talking about how good Ryan Langerhans is before the season, etc.

My point on Smoak was that all things being equal I'd rather see the kid get major league ABs. There's no substitute for experience. Now, if the mental picture was all messed up, then sending him down to get some confidence isn't such a bad idea. However, if he's the kind of kid that can roll with the punches (and when he was in Texas there were a lot of outs where he was hitting the ball hard and it was going right at people), work on things in sessions via extra BP, and incorporate that work into ABs 3-4 times per week, then he's better off being at the bigs.

43. By: StandinPat on 08-02-2010 13:12:51
#42 Under club control is not the same thing as under contract. Any team acquiring him would be under no obligation to give him anything for 2011. They would have him for the rest of the year, with the option of tendering him for 2011.

As for Smoak, I read that they were tinkering with his stance a bit. It's probably a bit easier to tweak and tinker and see the results that build confidence in those changes down at AAA. I'm guessing that was the Ms main motivation, but he'll be back up pretty soon, September at the latest. Also, if they are gonna give a decent amount of ABs to both Kotchman and Branyan, then that just steals those necessary ABs from Smoak. It seems very similar to the Adam Moore situation to me. I think in this instance they would rather have said player down in AAA playing everyday and smoothing out the rough edges in a easier environment.

44. By: Edman on 08-02-2010 13:55:47
DMac. You're kid is pretty smart. Do you feel it's better to rush him off to college after his junior year, because the enviroment is tougher, or would you rather he learn a few more basics, before he continues on to college?

That Major League experience thing is important. But, so is having the tool set to be able to transition his game to the majors. I do think that Texas rushed him, but from what I saw of him, he has all he needs to be successful, with some adjustments. It's easier to do that at AAA, than having the pressure of producing on a club that's struggling offensively.

It's not like he's gonna stay in Tacoma forever.

45. By: DMac33 on 08-02-2010 14:10:41
Pat:

Given how long Kotchman has been around, I was making an assumption that he had already acquired enough service time to be a free agent at the end of whenever is his contract is. My mistake in not realizing that he hadn't quite gotten to that point yet.

Again, I'm ok with sending him down provided it was a confidence issue and something that he himself made the decision on. There are advantages to sending him down. However, there are also advantages of keeping him with the big club.

Considering that the Mariners have a lousy history of developing bats, I hope that they find a way to possibly holding off on the tinkering. From what I saw of Smoak when he was in Texas, his biggest weakness was identifying fastball vs. change. That's more of an approach issue than it is a mechanical issue ... at least to me it is.

46. By: DMac33 on 08-02-2010 14:15:13
Edman:

I think you hit on the key attribute ... what is the skill level of the individual.

If the individual has the skill level and temperament to understand that he's getting serious on the job training and that while results are important, learning from the reps is as important, if not more important in the long run.

On a personal level, I've seen this first hand this past season with a family member in respect to playing at the college level as a true freshman versus redshirting. As a true freshman, you are going to have successes and failures. The key is whether or not you can keep your chin up and learn from your "mistakes." If you can, then you can work on your holes on off days and during the offseason. If you can't, you are better served not having your confidence destroyed.

It's more of a case by case basis to me. If a level is too easy for someone or doesn't possess the required challenge, then you are doing a disservice by having that individual stay below their talent level.

47. By: rjfrik on 08-02-2010 14:37:57
#41.

It's all speculation of course. But most reports that I've read had Rendon as a better bat then Harper. Harper obviously has the hype. Also, I've read that Harper doesn't project long term at C, which some people think might be false. I know you don't draft for need but If you have a stud at catcher and right field and you think Rendon might be a better bat then Harper or at least equal and he plays a position you need to fill desperately, 3B, then I think you would draft him. Also if Harper holds out because he doesn't want to go to the Nationals and play on the east coast that has to be in the minds of the Orioles Front Office as well, as they are only 100 miles up the road.

Really it was just a thought.

48. By: rjfrik on 08-02-2010 14:38:20
Here's another fun tidbit:

The Mariners are on pace for 526 runs, which would be the least amount of any team (in a 162-game season) since 1971. Ouch. (Scott Weber, Pro Ball NW)

49. By: DMac33 on 08-02-2010 14:57:40
An easy way to figure out what you have with an offense is to look around and look at the players that you have and then project where they best fit in a lineup. Since the goal is to win a division, the target lineup that you are placing the players should be consistent with where you'd expect the players to hit on a division winning team.

Ichiro: 1st
Gutierrez: 6th or 7th (most likely 7th)
Saunders: 6th (may be a stretch) or 7th ... possibly 8th
Ackley: 2nd (maybe 3rd)
Smoak: 5th
Figgins: 1st or 9th

Anybody in the minors that I'm missing?

What's pretty clear is that the Mariners have a lot of guys that are 5th to 7th or 8th caliber hitters in a good lineup (and the catcher most likely hits 8th) with a couple options near the top of the order.

There isn't a 3 or 4 hitter to be found anywhere in the organization (at least doesn't appear to be anybody ready towards the top) and in all honesty asking Smoak to be that may be a bit much. Remember, Buhner was a 5 or 6 hitter on the Mariner teams of the mid 1990's ... that's the kind of caliber 5 or 6 hitter that you are looking for.

The reality is that when you are on pace for 526 runs, there are a lot of holes in the order. The holes that need to be fixed are far more than just simply going out and spending big bucks here or there ... although it'd help get the club back to a consistent level.

If there has been anything good to come out of this year it is the proof that pitching at Safeco Field can even get average to slightly above average pitching talent to pitch at a high level (see Vargas, Jason).

50. By: Blowgun7 on 08-02-2010 16:11:25
On a pennant winning team?

I don't see how you can put Saunders 8th. He seems to me to have much higher offensive upside than Gutierrez who you put 6th.

Smoak could easily be a #3 hitter when he gets enough experience. What this team needs is a cleanup and 5th hitter.

I look at it like this:

1)Ichiro
2)Ackley
3)Smoak
4)Nobody
5)Nobody
6)Saunders
7)Gutierrez
8)C/SS
9)C/SS

What we need is a legit DH and a stick at 3B

51. By: randallball on 08-02-2010 16:16:45
I'm with you, Blowgun. Nothing wrong with that lineup with some pop in the middle.

52. By: baseballman on 08-02-2010 16:30:19
Smoak a 5 hitter?! lol, no.

I agree with blowgun, but you have to add Figgins in there, he isnt going to magically disappear.

53. By: StandinPat on 08-02-2010 16:49:20
And what year are we talking about here? Guys like Smoak, Saunders, Ackley and Moore will all be quite different hitters in 2012 and 2013 than in 2011. The general consensus is that this team isn't going anywhere next year, so it seems premature to worry about how they made fit into a contending lineup using there presumed 2011 skillsets.

That being said, down the road, Smoak would be a 3/4 type, Saunders is pretty close to a 6 now, if the power keeps coming around he could be a decent 5 in a couple years, Ackley is a 2, with upside as a 3 if you stack two other extremely high OBP guys in front of him, and Moore's upside is being a C that doesn't have to be stuck in the 8 or 9 hole.

I also think it's important to note that as long as this team continues to put this kind of emphasis on defense, they will be unlikely to have what most consider a traditional lineup. Comparing someone who should be a 6 or 7 on another team, but a 5 here isn't necessarily fair. It's prob more important to simply find a team full of good hitters, than guys who fit a specific spot in your batting order, with that said 1B and DH are two spots where the M's have to maximize their offensive value to help pick up the slack for everyone else.

54. By: DMac33 on 08-02-2010 17:54:24
Seriously Pat? Saunders is pretty close to a #6 hitter right now? Maybe a decent #5 hitter?

How does a .243 hitter show up as a #6 on a championship-caliber club? Maybe a #5 hitter? Are you focusing on the fact that if you take his current numbers and stretch them out to 600 ABs that'd be on a pace to be a 27 HR and 88 RBI season?

Why do I say that Saunders is most likely a 7th place hitter on a championship caliber club? First and foremost, I look at 51 K's in 177 ABs. That's just way too high of a rate. The fact that he struggles just a bit hitting lefties is also a cause for concern. I could see him being a 6th hitter if he continues to progress. I could see him as a 8 hitter in a stacked lineup or against lefties.

If you think Smoak is a 3/4 type hitter and not a 5 hitter, I really think you should take a look around the contenders and understand what they have as a 5 hitter.

Yankees: Robinson Cano (on pace for a .330/30/100+ type year) - Tex and ARod are the 3/4 hitters
Tampa: Longoria hits 3rd, Pena 4th (they are more of an exception)
Boston: Victor Martinez/JD Drew (if Pedroia is healthy (Youkilis and Ortiz are 3/4)
Minnesota: Delmon Young (Mauer/Morneau 3/4 when healthy) - Kubel/Cuddyer would be 6/7 (both guys with 100 RBI seasons)
Texas: Josh Hamilton (Ian Kinsler and Vlad hit 3/4 normally)

Philly: Jayson Werth (Utley and Howard hit 3/4)
Atlanta: Some combination of Chipper Jones, Troy Glaus, and Brian McCann hit 3/4/5
Cardinals: Colby Rasmus (Pujols and Holliday hit 3/4)

That's a good starting point and there's a really good chance that the World Champ comes from that list. If Justin Smoak turns out to be the caliber of hitter of Robinson Cano, Victor Martinez, JD Drew, Delmon Young, Josh Hamilton, Jayson Werth, or Colby Rasmus, the Mariners should be doing cartwheels.

55. By: rjfrik on 08-02-2010 17:57:47
Moore called up today. Johnson sent down!! That's a start at least.

56. By: VikingArthur on 08-02-2010 18:13:37
If Smoak ends up being Delmon Young we should do cartwheels? Don't be fooled by his RBI numbers (he hits behind two absolute studs who live on base). His OBP is terrible and will always be horrible.

I don't think there is much doubt that Smoak becomes a .280-300 hitter with a .370 OBP with mid 800s OPS at the low end. Will that be next year? Maybe not. By 2012, 2013 I'd be surprised if he is not flirting with .900 OPS.

57. By: VikingArthur on 08-02-2010 18:15:59
#47... Rendon's bat is better than Harper's? On what planet?

I think Washington is going to have a hard time not putting him on the Opening Day roster next year as an 18 year old. He is that special. That said...I think he comes up in June next year and starts raking.

58. By: StandinPat on 08-02-2010 18:34:18
Seriously Dmac? Did you actually read what I said?

"And what year are we talking about here? Guys like Smoak, Saunders, Ackley and Moore will all be quite different hitters in 2012 and 2013 than in 2011."

"That being said, down the road, Smoak would be a 3/4 type, Saunders is pretty close to a 6 now, if the power keeps coming around he could be a decent 5 in a couple years"

How does that become Smoak is a 3 and Saunders 5 right now? What on earth does his current batting average have to do with what he could become "in a couple of years?"

I quite clearly, and simply stated that those guys would be significantly different hitters in a couple of years, or when the M's might possible be considered contenders. I'm not sure why this is so difficult. How the hell cares how Saunders would today would slot into a championship lineup? Talk about the irrelevant of all irrelevant. The M's aren't contenders now, nor will they be next year. In 2012 maybe, 2013 much more likely. You're gonna sit there and tell me you know for sure Saunders will still be a .243 hitter that K's 29% of the time in 2012? I suppose if we wanted to completely ignore the idea of him making any improvements at all, or even the fact that his strikeouts have gone down and his walks up every successive month so far this year, or that as a 23yr old, basically rookie, his current OPS would rank tied for 13th among average 6 hole production in all of baseball...In other words, he's roughly an average #6 hitter NOW, so yeah I feel pretty good saying he could be a good 6 or a potential 5 IN A COUPLE OF YEARS.

59. By: Lailoken on 08-02-2010 19:30:03
Resop put on outright waivers by the Braves. Hope GMZ snags him off the wire.

60. By: DMac33 on 08-03-2010 10:51:34
Pat:

Look at your comments and not mine for a second. You are the one in post #53 that said that Saunders is pretty close to a #6 right now with an upside to be a #5. You said that. Not me.

When I look at Saunders, I see a player that offensively may very well be a guy that when he gets stabilized at the MLB level is someone that can hit about .270 or so with about 25-30 HRs and 90-100 RBIs. From what I've also seen of him, it also seems as if he's got a similar look to him as players like Brad Hawpe and Curtis Granderson in that I think that he will be able to hit RHP quite well and may tend to struggle against LHP. That player COULD be a #6 hitter on a good team down the road ... a #5 is stretching it a bit IMO as an everyday role.

As for improvement, I do factor improvement in players. But I do think it is important to realize that players marginally improve over time. Saunders turns 24 in the offseason. I'd say that he's got another year or two to continue to develop. But at that point, he is more or less what he is. That improvement in my opinion gets Saunders into that .270 range as a hitter with 25 HR and 90 RBI potential while being far more consistent as a hitter.

What the Mariners lack are guys that are middle of the order hitters. Bats that are more of an impact in nature and guys that have the chance to be long-term all-stars in this league. Look at historical levels of guys like Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Manny Ramirez, Mark Teixiera, Lance Berkman, Miguel Cabrera, and Evan Longoria as good cases in point that at comparable, or younger, ages than Saunders, the production suggested that the player would be a middle of the order bat.

Making comments such as "his current OPS would rank tied for 13th among average 6 hole production in all of baseball" right now is misleading in a couple of areas. First, since the Mariners are an AL team, it's best to compare 6th hitters to the AL norms - in the NL its more likely to be comparable to the #5 hitter. Second, while a stat like OPS is a stat that provides relative measure on a player, the conclusion that you've drawn would seem to be flawed - if for no other reason than the fact that the Mariners have spent most of the year hitting Saunders in the bottom third of the order and only are hitting him 6th now due to the fact that the bottom three are so very clearly below average MLB hitters.

Saunders is a .243 hitter with a .316 OBP. In the past, I've heard many Mariner fans complain about Jose Lopez and his faulty OBP over many previous seasons. A .316 OBP is within range of Jose Lopez and his historical norms. The moral is that you want to see your middle of the order type bats (3-5 hitters) be guys that are .270+ hitters with OBPs in the .350+ range - at least IMO. He's got about 40 points to go at minimum to get there (and there are no guarantees that he does get there). And of course, there are the strikeouts and high frequency that is concerning. High strikeout levels mean one of three things to me. First, it could mean that there are holes in your swing that can be fixed if you work hard enough to cover them up (i.e. weak on outside pitches because you try to pull everything). If that is a problem, that can be corrected pretty easily through hard work. The second problem can be tied to pitch recognition. That is a little harder of a problem to overcome in my opinion. The final problem can be tied to just flat out not being good enough to handle the difference between MLB pitching and AAA pitching (the dreaded AAAA player). I don't know at this point where Saunders fits in that spectrum. But I do know that it's more of an exception than the rule to think that Saunders is a kid that is going to transform into anything more than an above average MLB hitter. And an above average MLB hitter in my opinion is a 6-hole hitter for most good teams.

61. By: DMac33 on 08-03-2010 10:59:52
Arthur:

Smoak is 23 right now ... Delmon Young is 24.

Delmon Young has been in the majors for long enough that it seems like he's older than he is.

Delmon Young was a MLB regular at the age of 21 years old during the 2007 season. He hasn't hit less than .284 in any of the 4 seasons since then.

He may not be a player that will ever draw a lot of walks ... and that's fine.

The big difference in Delmon Young this year versus prior years is the significant decline in his strikeout rates.

Consider the following two data sets:

1) ABs per Strikeout:

'07: 5.1
'08: 5.5
'09: 4.3
'10: 8.9

2) Batting Average in ABs that do not result in Ks (computed as hits / (ABs - Ks) ):

'07: .359
'08: .355
'09: .369
'10: .377

What I think you'll notice is that the biggest difference in Delmon Young this year is that he's matured a bit as a hitter, has done a better job of filling in his holes, is able to get the ball into play more, and as a result, is able to do more than he has done in the past (i.e. better HR, 2B, and RBI rates).

62. By: VikingArthur on 08-03-2010 21:01:15
Dude...I know Delmon Young has come into his own this year. He is a solid player to be sure. He has a pretty BABIP this year which could end up being a career trend or maybe not. I think he is a consistent 290-20 guy..nothing wrong with that. I think Smoak will be better than that....that's all.

63. By: StandinPat on 08-04-2010 19:21:29
Dmac, None of that makes any sense

"Saunders turns 24 in the offseason. I'd say that he's got another year or two to continue to develop."

So Saunders is gonna peak at 25-26 when most every other player in baseball peaks around 28-29?

"it's best to compare 6th hitters to the AL norms - in the NL its more likely to be comparable to the #5 hitter."

Do you do any research at all when you post such things? First off, AL average for #6 .736, for NL its actually higher at .746, a 5 in the NL is .798, so really, nothing about that statement is even remotely true. Additionally, at the time I posted that his OPS was .757 which would have tied him for 7th with Cleveland, smack dab in the middle of the AL.

"Saunders is a .243 hitter with a .316 OBP"

Again, why do you keep quoting his numbers on the year like that is all he'll ever be or even that's his talent level now? You even stated earlier that you thought he "can hit about .270 or so" which even with no improvement in his walk rate would stick him at about a .345 OBP, AL average for a #5 is .339.

"If you think Smoak is a 3/4 type hitter and not a 5 hitter, I really think you should take a look around the contenders and understand what they have as a 5 hitter. "

Again, this is the part where you should do some research. You claim that Smoak is a 5 and not a 3. AL average for a #5 .789, for a #3 .792. In other words for most teams, there is no real difference between a 3 and 5. Additionally, a team is gonna set its lineup partially based on handedness and matchups, so literally the same player might hit in 2 or 3 different spots on a regular basis. Furthermore only 4 teams in the AL have an average OPS of over .850 from their 3 spot. You really don't think at his peak Smoke couldn't OPS over .850?

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