| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 03-09-2009 |
It's early, and if I get official rosters a month from now that have yet to be published publicly, I'll certainly share those, but here's a quick look at what the Tacoma Rainiers roster might look like come opening day in about four weeks.
Let's not talk too much about the Rule 5 guys, because it's impossible to do anything but speculate whether Reegie Corona, Jose Lugo or Patrick Ryan will make the clubs they're destined for.
As a side note, I should get the minor league groupings sometime in the next few days, as MiLB camp opened this morning.
I do know that RHP Austin-Bibens Dirk is part of the Triple-A group, which means there's little to no chance he returns to Class-A High Desert.
Carlos Triunfel and right-hander Juan Ramirez are on and off the traveling squad in big-league camp, but will soon report to minor league camp. Triunfel to Double-A West Tennessee and Ramirez to the group with prospective High Desert players.
Thanks to reader basekid3's find that the Mariners are considering returning right-hander Phillippe Aumont to the Midwest league - this time in Clinton, Iowa with the Lumberkings.
I confirmed that consideration, but it's apparently up to Aumont, his health and his approach to the 2009 season.
If he starts the year repeating that league, he won't stay long. Not if he throws like he did in the first round of the WBC versus the middle of the order of the United States
lineup.
The above picture is Matt Tuiasosopo by Paul Marsh at PaulMPhotography.com. This shot is from last season at Cheney Stadium.
| First Base |
Candidates - Javier Brito, Ian Baldergroen, Thomas Hubbard, Bryan LaHair, Johan Limonta, Mike Carp
Something has got to give here, and not just at the Triple-A level. If LaHair wins the Tacoma first base job and the club uses the DH role for Brito and OF Mike Wilson, then Carp goes back to Double-A where he spent 2008 in the Mets organization.
That makes Hubbard the odd-man out. He's 26 and not going to be sent back to High-A. Hmmm.
Limonta can play the outfield and is likely headed for West Tenn to start the year, flanking Greg Halman on one side or the other.
I have to think that Carp, 22, wins the job in Tacoma - he's ready after hitting .299/.403/.471 in the Eastern League a year ago - Hubbard stays in West Tenn and LaHair is jettisoned via trade or DFA.
Projection: Mike Carp
| Middle Infield |
Candidates - Oswaldo Navarro, Callix Crabbe, Ronny Cedeno, Reegie Corona, Chris Woodward
When Luis Valbuena was traded to Cleveland and Tug Hulett was designated for assignment and claimed by the Royals, it left the middle infield situation in Tacoma a bit easy to figure out.
Chris Woodward isn't likely to be kept around if he doesn't make the big club, so if Cedeno wins the reserve infielder gig - or a starting role - Reegie Corona has to be offered back to the Yankees - who'd probably take him right now with A-Rod out - and Woodward is released, that leaves Navarro and Crabbe to man the two spots.
If the M's work out a trade with the Yankees for Corona, he becomes the frontrunner at second. Woodward can play short, second and third, but isn't likely to start ahead of younger players.
If Cedeno is optioned, he's the shortstop with Navarro and Crabbe sharing second. Cedeno would also likely play second, and possibly third, too.
Projection: Oswaldo Navarro and Callix Crabbe.
| Third base |
This one is easy - unless Matt Tuiasosopo makes the big club, likely to due to injury, trade or unforeseen circumstances, he's the starter in Tacoma.
Projection: Matt Tuiasosopo
| Catcher |
Candidates - Rob Johnson, Adam Moore, Jeff Clement
It's not likely the M's keep three catchers, which means if the big club keeps Clement and Kenji Johjima, Moore and Johnson share duties in Triple-A. Jamie Burke isn't going to accept a minor league assignment after spending two consecutive years in the majors.
There's not much chance Clement is sent back to Triple-A unless the club feels Johnson is ready to hit some in the bigs.
Projection: Adam Moore, Rob Johnson
| Outfield |
Candidates - Steve Moss, Mike Wilson, Johan Limonta, Greg Halman, Prentice Redman, Michael Saunders
Moss may be the utility outfielder with Redman in center, Saunders in left and Wilson in right. Limonta could serve as a two-position bench player, too, spelling Carp at first and Saunders-Wilson in the corners, but is likely headed back to the Southern League.
Halman is likely to remain in Double-A West Tenn.
Projection: Redman, Saunders, Wilson, Moss
| Rotation |
Candidates - Garrett Olson, Robert Rohrbaugh, Rich Dorman, Doug Fister, Ryan Rowland-Smith, Gaby Hernandez, Denny Stark, Andy Baldwin, Jason Vargas
Gaby Hernandez, Justin Thomas, Robert Rohrbaugh, Garret Olson, Doug Fister, Denny Stark, Andy Baldwin, Rich Dorman, Jason Vargas
Olson and Rohrbaugh are certainties, and Hernandez may be as well. Stark's run in the game may be over, and Dorman, Fister and Thomas also fit in the bullpen.
Thomas has an outside shot to make the 25-man roster, but is likely to start the year in Tacoma's rotation with Olson, Hernandez and Rohrbaugh. Dorman is better suited to start than is Fister, and Fister's future is likely in a relief role.
Vargas could make the major league roster as a left-handed reliever.
Projection: Olson, Hernandez, Rohrbaugh, Vargas, Thomas
| Bullpen |
Candidates - Jose Lugo, Roy Corcoran, Patrick Ryan, Steve Kahn, Cesar Jimenez, Thomas, Kelley, Tracy Thorpe, Luis Munoz, Roy Corcoran
I think that's the group, and if they go with six, Dorman may be the odd-man out - least amount of upside. Jimenez could make the major league team, too, and Thomas could end up in the pen if Vargas is made a starter to keep him prepped for big-league duty, which makes as much sense as anything.
Ryan was the club's pick from Milwaukee in the Triple-A portion of the Rule 5 draft.
Thomas, Kelley, Vargas and Corcoran have chances to make the 25-man out of spring camp, though I don't see a ton of value in Corcoran if he's not commanding his fastball at high levels.
Projection: Ryan, Kelley, Thorpe, Munoz, Kahn, Thomas
| Lineup |
1. Crabbe, 2B
2. Redman, CF
3. Saunders, LF
4. Wilson, RF
5. Carp, 1B
6. Tuiasosopo, 3B
7. Moore, C/DH
8. Johnson, DH/C
9. Navarro, SS
Notes: Former Player Development Director Greg Hunter is going to serve as a Major League scout in 2009. Hunter was replaced by Pedro Grifol, but this might be seen as step up for Hunter, who has previously expressed interest in being more involved in the scouting side of things. Here's his chance.
He and Frank Mattox both will serve in this role for the upcoming season...
If any of you are in Peoria, or are planning on going down this month and want to try and catch the players at their hotels, the big-league invites and roster member typically stay at the LaQuinta Inn & Suites on N. 83rd Ave while the minor leaguers are at the Hampton Inn on W Paradise Lane...
Jose Rios, a left-hander who spent last season with Pulaski, was seen throwing "very hard" last week in Peoria. He's likely to be a candidate to make the Wisconsin club, but could again split time between the short-season clubs.
He sat 87-89 last season, but at just 19 years of age, there could be a lot more in his arm. The Mexico native fanned 54 in 47 innings a year ago, but got better as his arm was stretched out.
At 90+ mph, Rios is one to watch as he develops his curve, slider and change.
projecting-the-triple-a-roster
Comments
The following 38 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: Blowgun7 on 03-09-2009 15:01:43 What do you make of Tui's great spring performence? Just a hot streak against middling pitching (for the most part) or is he showing something to get excited about? |
| 2. By: stickball on 03-09-2009 15:08:04 Does Chris Jakubauskas have a chance of making the Tacoma team even as a reliever? |
| 3. By: marc w on 03-09-2009 15:40:05 Re: "Jamie Burke isn't going to accept a minor league assignment after spending two consecutive years in the majors." Burke's on a minor league contract; why wouldn't he accept the assignment? Given the need to get ABs for Moore, I wonder if they might start Burke in AA. Any word on whether the club might put Thomas into the 'pen full time? He's listed in both rules above, and he may do a bit of both, but it seems like it might help for the club to see what they have in him if he went to the pen full-time. I think Jakubauskas has a 90% chance of making Tacoma, stickball. We'll see which guys start in AA just to get acclimated (and avoid the cold). I could see Hernandez starting in AA again depending on where his velocity is - same with Kahn (coming off injury) and possibly Thorpe (because why not). This is pure speculation, but I think Jakubauskas will get a lot of starts in Tacoma - based on the way he handled that role last year and the fact that they may want another righty. If it comes down to Jaku. and someone like Baldwin, the nod probably goes to Jakubauskas. I think it may actually be tougher for Thomas and/or Rohrbaugh, but we'll see. Those two are so similar, and yet clearly a step behind Vargas/Olson. How many 88-90mph lefties does one rotation really need? In the OF, might they use Brito more in LF to avoid the traffic jam at 1B? Also seems like Bladergroen could start at West. Tenn, though that presumably just means releasing Hubbard. It'll be interesting to see what Limonta can do, and hopefully he's adjusting to the OF well. I wonder if they may want to go with Moss in AA and Redman in AAA to start with - that might help them to keep Brito in Tacoma. |
| 4. By: Jason A. Churchill on 03-09-2009 15:47:51 Burke's on a MILB contract to MAKE the team. There is no room for him in AAA, and while AA could use him, it's not like there are any pitching or catching prospects there that would greatly enhance their future under Burke's tutelage. If the club makes a trade or two from the catching spot that sends out a young player such as Johnson, then maybe Burke spends most or all of 2008 working with Moore in Tacoma. It'd be worth paying Burke a big-league salary to get him to do so. But other than that, he's either a big-leaguer or he's not in the org. Jakubauskas is currently the odd-man out. What arm are you sending out if you replace him with Jak? He's not better than any of them, though I should have listed him as a candidate. His ceiling is significantly lower than every arm mentioned. Of course, if there is a surprise 25-man roster decision or someone gets hurt, he's probably the next guy in line, as long as the big club doesn't send Corco down. |
| 5. By: Slurve on 03-09-2009 16:57:31 And I assume in the event that Tui can't play 3rd or makes the big league team Mangini will play 3rd in AAA. What the heck happened to this kid he went from being one of the top bats to being a question at it... |
| 6. By: 01v-dubs on 03-09-2009 17:06:18 Jason, once Saunders shows he's ready for the bigs, will he actually get the call? I guess it depends on how the M's are doing in the standings, but they already have a crowded outfield with Saunders not in the mix, seems to get a little dicey when he forces his way up there. I just hope he's handled better then Adam Jones was. |
| 7. By: slamcactus on 03-09-2009 19:17:09 Isn't Cedeno out of options? |
| 8. By: Jason A. Churchill on 03-09-2009 20:31:26 Yes, but at that point he'd likely clear waivers. He cleared waivers last August, even. |
| 9. By: JonPax on 03-09-2009 21:53:51 Hi Jason, What do you think about Aumont repeating Low A? It seemed to me that he (at times) dominated the league and was ready to move up. Do they want him to work on something (changeup or better control)? Also, I think I would agree with all seletions except maybe Halman. Again, it seemed he was comfortable in AA and ready for a promotion to AAA, but maybe (actually definitely) needs to work on his plate awareness and pitch recognition, lowering his strikeouts. |
| 10. By: Lonnie on 03-09-2009 22:04:10 Shawn Kelley has looked really good in ST, does he have a chance of squeeking into the Tacoma bullpen? Lonnie |
| 11. By: Lonnie on 03-09-2009 22:05:03 OOPS! I meant to ask about Stephan Kahn! Disregard the Kelley question! Lonnie |
| 12. By: Slurve on 03-09-2009 22:06:56 Teaching patience is pretty hard right now it's not impossible but maybe I think if we could teach him to make better CONTACT with the ball that could lead to some major improvements overall. |
| 13. By: John_S on 03-09-2009 22:50:56 Jason, Do you think Tui's bat is going to play at 3rd or do you think he's going to have to be moved to the OF? Also, If Triunfel lights up AA in the beginning part of the season, how soon do you think he could end up in AAA? |
| 14. By: bikozu on 03-10-2009 02:11:20 Will Halman ever learn to not swing at every breaking ball? I don't see how he hits ML pitching with his current approach... |
| 15. By: 01v-dubs on 03-10-2009 04:18:52 Anybody see Liddi against Canada? that kid has some serious tools. Made a heck of a stop on a GB in the hole, drove in a couple of runs, and it looked like he just missed hitting a HR. He looks like he plays with a lot of passion and is a easy guy to route for. I hope he figures it out this year. |
| 16. By: SMariners11 on 03-10-2009 09:41:48 Jason, Everybody is talking about Jharmidy DeJesus coming and playing third for our beloved Lumberkings, along with Mario Martinez. If both 3B are in Clinton this year do you think they would move DeJesus back to SS? |
| 17. By: Jason A. Churchill on 03-10-2009 10:02:32 Kahn is good enough to make the big club, but will probably fall into AA or AAA. De Jesus can't play SS. Tui's bat won't quite play at third. Left field for him. |
| 18. By: marc w on 03-10-2009 12:09:15 "His [Jakubauskas'] ceiling is significantly lower than every arm mentioned." Oooh, can't agree with that. Andy Baldwin? Denny Stark? Tracy Thorpe? Jakubauskas is old, but hasn't been pitching very long. His change is a weapon, but he still hasn't learned how to disguise it *consistently*. That's different to a Baldwin or Stark, who don't really have any weapons. One other candidate for the bullpen in Tacoma should be Eric Hull. He's a Washington kid, and he's done well in AAA - he could be a great set-up man for Kelley. If so, that may squeeze out Dorman, who's the same kind of pitcher, only a bit older (which is too bad; I still like Dorman). "Tui's bat won't quite play at third. Left field for him." Are you saying that his bat isn't enough to compensate for a below-average 3B glove? That potentially average or better D in LF would overcome the position adjustment? |
| 19. By: Jason A. Churchill on 03-10-2009 12:35:37 Thorpe and Baldwin YES, for sure. Not really close. Jak is high-effort guy, belongs in the pen. Baldwin has an underdeveloped curve ball, but sustains his stuff for longer. Neither have big-league pitches. Thorpe has a mid-90s fastball and a plus breaking ball, just no command. But because of the raw stuff, his ceiling is higher than any arm in Tacoma, with the only possible exception being if Lugo or Munoz are sent to AAA, too. Stark, no, but I didn't project him to make the club, either. re: Tui I'm just saying he can't play third, period. re: Hull Yes, I left him out. He actually is one of the best 7 relievers they have right now, should make the big club, but I think a few arms are going to make it on reputation alone. In a scenario where Lugo is kept (offered back, etc, but kept in the end) or Hull is sent to Tacoma, Dorman is probably the odd-arm out. |
| 20. By: Jay Yencich on 03-10-2009 12:50:13 "re: Tui I'm just saying he can't play third, period. " BA says that his defense is now about average or at least improving, which I think would corroborate with your earlier comments that they don't seem to have anyone on the ground for their reviews, they just go by what the organization gives them. I can't say I've ever heard positive comments about his D from someone that's actually seen him. |
| 21. By: Jason A. Churchill on 03-10-2009 13:36:29 Unless he's drastically improved from the end of last season, those reports are, like you say, from the organization. But then again, even if he has, how would even the M's know? He's played less than 20 innings of defense. |
| 22. By: JonPax on 03-10-2009 16:31:40 Jason, Do you agree with Aumont returning back to Low A and Halman returning to AA. I guess I see Halman returning as a good thing, but Aumont seems more than ready to move up. |
| 23. By: Slurve on 03-10-2009 17:05:41 Mangini for 3rd base! |
| 24. By: marc w on 03-10-2009 17:39:31 "Baldwin YES, for sure." Hmm. I guess I still see him as a control guy, whose pure stuff certainly isn't enough to get people out on his own. If he could sustain those absurdly low walk rates, I'd be with you, but given that his walk rate just doubled last year, it's hard to know for sure. If he can get back down to the 1+ BB/9 rates he had in the low minors, then that's something (still not sure that equates to 'stuff' but put that aside for a moment), but it may simply be that AAA hitters don't chase, and he has to get more of the plate. I think Jakubauskas is more of an unknown. It's possible he's better suited to the pen (though his reverse platoon splits will make his role difficult to pin down; he's a righty Cesar Jimenez). But I'd just like to see him in the rotation for a bit to know for sure. Tracy Thorpe... yes, he's got a fast FB, but I'm just uncomfortable talking about a 'ceiling' for a guy who's been in pro baseball since 2000. He is what he is, for better or worse. Clearly, he's miles better than he showed in Tacoma last year, but I just don't think he's capable of better command (at least not without getting hit pretty hard). Tui: Yes, I'm with you. I actually think his defense improved a bit from April to September last year, but there's still so far to go that I just don't see it being worth the wait. "I think a few arms are going to make it on reputation alone." Yes. Corcoran's on the team (and I'm fine with that), but we'll have to see what they do with Lowe. I'm guessing your comment was aimed more at Batista, and.... well, yeah. There's no good way to spin that. |
| 25. By: Jason A. Churchill on 03-10-2009 20:28:24 re: Baldwin Jakubauskas just doesn't have the package to start in the bigs, stuff-command-mechanics, while Baldwin's stuff isn't great, he's better suited as a whole... and starters are inherently more valuable than relievers, so... As for Thorpe, they said that about Randy Johnson, too... and Brandon League... and Dustin McGowan... and Rudy Seanez... I think Corcoran is the 12th best reliever in the organization. Ground balls are fine, but you have to miss SOME bats or a high percentage of those ground balls are going to seep through, particularly on the right side of the infield. |
| 26. By: Jason A. Churchill on 03-10-2009 20:47:53 Curto reminded me that Freddy Guzman is in the outfield mix in Tacoma, and he may win out over Steve Moss, but I find it hard to believe he'd win out over Redman. Curto also mentions Chris Seddon as a candidate for the rotation. I heard he looked awful and they were already considering releasing him, but if he's around, he's a Triple-A roster candidate, too. The M's have a lot of decisions to make in the next three weeks. |
| 27. By: marc w on 03-11-2009 12:08:31 "As for Thorpe, they said that about...." Wow. To me, these comparisons aren't even close. Rudy Seanez was in the major leagues at age 20. He had a few (good) seasons in the minors as a starter, then he was up. It took a while to succeed at the MLB level, but there was simply no doubting that he had MLB stuff. Brandon League was drafted in 2001 (a year after Thorpe) and was in the majors by 2004. Randy Johnson was drafted in '85 and up in MLB in '88 - his third pro season. McGowan is closer to the mark, but he was drafted the same year as Thorpe and hit the majors in '05. Again, he struggled to become an effective MLB pitcher, but obviously scouts knew he was capable. His MiLB stats are light years ahead of Thorpe's, and that's comparing McGowan-as-starter to Thorpe-as-reliever. In Thorpe we're talking about a guy who's been in pro baseball for *9* seasons and just got his feet wet in AAA (and that didn't go well). It's not fair to compare him to guys who made the major leagues early and then struggled there. A comparison that comes to my mind is his teammate from last year, Mumba Rivera. They're the same age, and both have very good fastballs (at least in velo terms), and both have command issues. Good call on Seddon; I thought he looked all right in one game, and then got blasted in another. Guess I wouldn't be surprised if he was released (they've got a hell of a lot of candidates, hence this discussion), but he's a pretty good AAA pitcher. With Guzman, I'd have to think his surgery will set him back. Sure, he can be ready for AAA opening day, but no one's able to watch the guy. I'm with you - how he'd slide in ahead of either Redman or Wilson, I don't know. |
| 28. By: Jason A. Churchill on 03-11-2009 13:26:31 There's NOT a difference -- none of those guys could throw strikes consistently, fastball or breaking ball, early in their careers. If Thorpe was a starter, I'd say forget it, but that's not the case. Even if you put the chances that Thorpe ever contributes at the big-league level at 3.3%, you take that any day of the week over the lack of chances Jak has to contribute at the same levels. So what if he can cover a few innings at somewhat near league average numbers - which is his absolute ceiling - those guys are a dime a dozen. Thorpe's 1 in 33 chance to be an effective 6th or 7th inning option is not as easy to find. One has a big league pitch, or two... the other doesn't. And just because he can command, well... so can Silva, and he isn't better than the stuff-driven type. And one thing you forgot about with Thorpe... he started in high school, started in the pros, then relieved in the pros, then started again, then relieved again. He's a high-risk arm, for sure, but the lack of reward on a guy like Jakubauskas makes the choice between the two very easy. |
| 29. By: stickball on 03-11-2009 21:16:29 Jakubauskas didn't allow a hit in 3 innings pitched today. Jason, if you want web help email me. |
| 30. By: Jason A. Churchill on 03-12-2009 01:46:07 Meche and CC were both terrible today, too. Is Jak better than either? Spring game results mean so little, ya know? |
| 31. By: Lonnie on 03-12-2009 11:19:40 All arguments aside, I think that it is easy to say that Tacoma should be pretty fun to watch in '09! A good friend of mine spend more time at Tacoma than he does at Safeco because of where he lives. I envy him. I'll get a chance to see the boys from Tacoma when they come to Colorado Springs in late April. Lonnie |
| 32. By: kevin_ess on 03-12-2009 15:55:22 I'm kind of embarrassed to admit that in almost 15 years of living in Seattle I've never seen a game in Tacoma. |
| 33. By: rvrfshn on 03-12-2009 16:27:04 Did I miss a trade or release somewhere? What happened to Mike Morse? |
| 34. By: rvrfshn on 03-12-2009 16:58:09 Never mind. Morse is on M's roster. Should have checked that first. Rainiers will be great this year. I'll be there every night. In mid-90's we watched A-Rod for a year and a half - at about 7 bucks a night! As soon as he came out of the dug out you could tell he was head and shoulders above every other player. Too bad. |
| 35. By: Talkbaseball on 03-12-2009 21:26:05 Chad Cordero Just signed to a minor league deal with the M's, everyone's thoughts? If healthy I think he has a shot to keep the role warm until Fields is ready to take over. Also could provide some trade value if he regains his old form. |
| 36. By: stickball on 03-12-2009 21:37:31 I like the signing. If nothing else, it helps keep Morrow in the rotation, not that Morrow was likely to be in the pen. |
| 37. By: rightwingrick on 03-13-2009 01:06:21 Jakubauskas is an interesting option, consistently underrated given his pretty good and pretty consistent performance. He's one of those "only OK" tools guys who seems to have "figured it out" as a late-bloomer and now pitches better than his tools. He has some of the bulldog in him that RR Smith also shows. I think he's a sleeper not only for AAA, but as guys fall off as spring progresses, he may just stay consistently good and force the M's to pay attention and the major league level. I'm rooting for him, but grant that it's a longshot. Burke may end up in a minor deal in the spring to some team that needs a solid back-up at catcher. If Johjima comes back from the World games and hits here like he has there, and Clement continues to struggle, it may be Clement and Moore at AAA, with Johnson a better defensive option at the major league level. It would be a major surprise, but also a big signal that perfomance counts. And Jack Z is not afraid to send that signal, from what we've seen so far. At 1B, Carp seems a shoe-in. At 2B, if the M's can figure a way to keep him, Corona would be a shoe-in. At 3B, Tui is a shoe-in, barring a apring trade or injury to Beltre. Then Tui will hit .320 and 15 homers by the break, and the M's will trade Beltre at the trade deadline. SS....now here's a headline..."Betancourt Sent to Tacoma to Work on Plate Discipline"!!! Cedeno beats him out for a starting position. Ok, unlikely, but he should have been in AAA last year. Realistically, it's Navarro. OF, Saunders, Wilson, and Redman. Halman needs to get his OBP up to .335 before he moves to AAA. My call on the rotation: Jakubauskas, Stark, Rorbaugh, Hernandez, Thorpe or Baldwin (all the M's real pitching prospects ar in lower levels, so they likely will go mostly with experienced guys who can jump to major league ball in the event of injury). Olson makes the M's in the pen, only because they don't have a LHP relief pitcher now who's looking like they'll make it. |
| 38. By: rightwingrick on 03-29-2009 14:41:59 March 29: Clement was sent to Tacoma this morning; had a tough spring offensively. Looks like Rob Johnson's defense and work with pitchers has earned him a roster spot with the M's. Wow! Jakubauskas has continued to shine, and if the M's didn't already have too many starters, he'd probably have earned himself a spot in the rotation. As it is, he's certainly still in the running for a bullpen spot. Wow! Another surprise from the independent leagues. Seems like once these guys figure it out and someone gives them a chance, they don't let go too easily. Betancourt still shows NO plate discipline, and still can't move guys over very well. On the other hand, he's hitting over .400, so what do you say/do? Ronny Cedeno is pushing him, though...and that's a good thing. |
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