| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 02-18-2009 |
So many of you have been asking about Grant Green that I thought it deserved its own post so I can share my thoughts, as well as the thoughts of others I have talked to, about Green’s prospects as a big-league shortstop.He’s a clean 6-2 or 6-3, 180-185 pounds with good feet, enough arm strength and Bobby Crosby-like athletic ability. His hands are good enough, but his range laterally, particularly to his left, has yet to reflect his overall physical ability, but during his junior season and the first few years as a professional, the instruction he receives should bring that out.
Chances are, Green is a shortstop at the Major League level.
“I don’t see any reason why not,” said the West Coast Area Scout of an AL club. “He’s got the ability to play there; it’s there physically. His arm is fine, accurate enough, he shows decent footwork… I like him a little bit, yeah.
“But no, he’s not Tulo, not with the glove. The extras aren’t there, at least yet. Green is more like a younger (Edgar) Renteria or a Bobby Crosby, though Crosby has more arm.”
At the plate, Green is a scout’s dream for a shortstop; Above-average power, makes contact consistently and understands the game enough to know when going the other way is more advantageous to his team than sitting on a fastball middle-in so he can pull it for power.
Green hit .390/.438/.644 with nine home runs, 15 doubles and five triples last season as a sophomore, stole 10 bases in 14 attempts and struck out just 35 times in 228 plate appearances.
Sounds pretty darned good, right?
Well, here’s why Green has a lot to prove during his junior season: He walked just 15 times, less than seven percent of his PAs - and his swing mechanics and overall plate skills aren’t suggestive of an above-average everyday big-leaguer.
You can only refer to the numbers so much – college players put up numbers, that’s the nature of the game due to the aluminum bat and the inherent lack of quality pitching.
For example, Washington grad Andy Lentz, an outfielder for four years at the U-Dub, hit .371/.471/.629 with 17 extra-base hits in just 139 plate appearances last season. He walked 20 times and fanned 30 times.
Lentz went undrafted.
Why? Because he didn’t project, physically or otherwise, to the big leagues, regardless of the numbers he put up.
Green does have some momentum, though. He performed well in the Cape Cod League and showed a little more patience and selectivity, while showing he can hit some with the wood bat. But this season will tell all.The pitching in the Pac-10 this season is up from last year, and if Green repeats his performances and puts some polish on his overall game – defensively and at the plate; both areas need improvement – then Green may very well deserve to be the No. 2 overall pick in the draft.
Green also must get stronger – upper and lower body.
My personal thoughts on Green may seem overblown toward the pessimistic side of things, but it may appear that way simply because I’m downplaying the comparisons to Tulowitzki and Evan Longoria.
He’s not Tulo with the glove, nor Longoria with the bat. He’s short of both, and probably will remain below the bar set by both SoCal-area infielders.
But that doesn’t mean he won’t be a good player and it certainly doesn’t mean that come late May or June, I won’t be clamoring for Green to be the pick.
But entering the year, I can’t jump on his bandwagon over Alex White or Dustin Ackley (unless Ackley truly is a first baseman versus a center fielder), despite the risks that come with pitchers.
Granted, no pun intended, the gap isn’t huge – the difference between the No. 2 talent and the No. 15 talent in this year’s crop is probably similar to the difference between the value of Ken Griffey Jr. and Garret Anderson.
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Comments
The following 39 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: Slurve on 02-18-2009 16:44:30 Good read. I agree some of us look at this kid and we see he's a helluva lot better than Yuni let's draft him and call him our Tulo. |
| 2. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-18-2009 16:48:45 It's sometimes difficult for some to get over drafting for need or drafting to cover a hole in the organization or the big-league lineup. If the M's draft for need, Green is that guy for sure. But if Green ends up average across the board and Alex White or Crow or Tate or Matzek ends up a star, they'll look awfull foolish. You always cover your rear by drafting the best player, regardless of position. It's different than any other sport. |
| 3. By: Slurve on 02-18-2009 16:52:30 Agreed if Grant Green has shown he's the best player to draft at the number two spot then draft him if not and there is someone better then you draft that kid but then signability comes in and can you expect him to stay healthy etc. |
| 4. By: Walrus on 02-18-2009 17:10:36 If Green posts numbers that are 10% worse than last year, but improves defensively...would that possible make him available at pick 27 in the first? Or is there enough talent there already for someone to draft green in the top 12 picks now? |
| 5. By: 01v-dubs on 02-18-2009 18:14:54 Well I'm certanly set straight, thanks Jason. It will be interesting to see how he does this season. |
| 6. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-18-2009 18:38:37 In this weak class, I don't think there's any chance Green drops past 15 or so, unless he suffers a major injury or starts talking about an enormous bonus. |
| 7. By: FatBat on 02-18-2009 19:42:09 Great read Jason! Nice touch with the info. question. as slurve touched on another thread earlier it is a pitchers draft, so wouldnt it make sense to take Ackley or Green with the first pick then take pitchers next two? is there enough pitching that we could nab some arms late while still getting one nice bat first pick? My feeling is hitters are on the field every day and pitchers every 5, for the sake of team cemistry wouldnt it serve two purposes drafting on field talent? we know about Green more, now, thanks to the great wright up but what do you see as Ackley projection in baseball? |
| 8. By: NEOregonMarinersFan on 02-18-2009 19:59:22 Thanks for the article, it's a good summary on Green. Once he is drafted, how soon do people believe he will be in the majors? I'd also like to know that same thing about Ackley. |
| 9. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-18-2009 20:06:10 No, Fatbat. You never draft anything but the best player available. If it works out the way you are talking, great. The bats versus pitchers thing only goes as far as VALUE takes them. Just because an average infielder plays every day doesn't mean he's more valuable than a No. 1-2 starting pitcher. Team chemistry means zilch. I'll write up Ackley fairly soon. I think Ackley is a quicker study because he's the better hitter, but that's today. It probably remains that way, but there is an entire season to be played yet. |
| 10. By: I h8 A-Roid on 02-18-2009 21:25:29 I pray that we can possibly get Strasburg. Is there any real chance of us getting him. We would have a great young pitching staff. Felix, Morrow, Strasburg, RRS Aumont. Along with the releivers we will have. Call me a dreamer. But if JR can come back then I can dream of that pitching staff. Maybe I'm just smoking the stuff I got from my cousin in the D.R. or was that a tic tack. I love the articles thanks JAC |
| 11. By: dewey on 02-18-2009 22:30:43 Im so happy thr GRIF is coming back now we will only lose 94 games.If this doesnt get Chuckie fired for trying to sell tickets on a over the hill hall of famer nothing ever will.I love KGJ as much as anyone but give ne a break and give Jay Z one also he said the right things but he cant feel this way if he is who he sys he is? |
| 12. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-18-2009 22:57:47 If Griffey is used properly, meaning the only player that loses PAs to him is Johjima and he DHs 90% of the time, or more, that he's in the lineup, than it's not in any manner a bad move. So we'll see. |
| 13. By: Jackson45 on 02-18-2009 23:19:26 Dewey...one point... WHO CARES if Griffey takes some playing time away from a young player. Ever heard of a feel good story? This is what that is! It's not like we were a playoff team before we signed Griffey, but now that we signed him we won't make the playoffs. We were going to lose a bunch of games anyways! This now gives me something to look forward too during the Mariner season along with watching a couple of the young players grow. |
| 14. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-18-2009 23:31:28 Well, YOU should care, Jackson. The ultimate point is to win and the organization should be aiming EVERY ounce of energy and resources doing that. But there's no reason you can't have Griffey here, have the feel-good story and send off year, and still get Clement and Wlad, etc, the time they need without shaving off even a single trip to the plate for them. That doesn't mean they each get 675 plate appearances, that's not necessary. |
| 15. By: Jackson45 on 02-19-2009 00:30:07 The organization should also do what makes the fans happy. Yes, winning will make the fans happy, but we were not going to win this year anyways. Having Griffey playing in Seattle again will ease the pain of the fans of having to go through a rebuilding year and it is what most of the fans wanted. |
| 16. By: Slurve on 02-19-2009 00:45:48 JAckson-But not at the cost of preventing the Clement/Wladdy duo to develop. They've annihilated AAA and if their bats manage to break out this year you're gonna some nice power and even if they don't you're still looking at Seattle to be at around .500 with the way the team is built. The defense has gotten better and as a result so will the pitching throwing the "we're not gonna win anyway just play Griffey" argument is very ignorant. |
| 17. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-19-2009 00:48:10 If you can't do the "feel-good fan stuff" and do the right thing in terms of development and rebuilding, the baseball stuff comes first. That's how good org's do it. Most of the fans aren't smart enough to be handed what they want and it be for the good of the team at the same time, anyway. |
| 18. By: Adam T on 02-19-2009 01:02:51 Question on Ackley - Is his value as a top-10 pick based on sticking in CF? Would he still be that high if he couldn't play CF? How to scouts project him at the plate? |
| 19. By: Slurve on 02-19-2009 01:17:36 Ackley is really weird right now I heard he could stick in CF or he's gonna be a 1B who steal a lot of bases. Then I heard he might play 2nd base?!?! |
| 20. By: Slurve on 02-19-2009 01:30:31 I like Ackley... He's full of intangibles he'll fit right in with the rest of the team. |
| 21. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-19-2009 01:30:57 I've only asked one scout about Ackley so far. Basically, he said Ackley is a guy that will hit at the big-league level, but he's not a middle-of-the-order type. Average power, good contact skills, draws walks, line-drive swing, very consistent mechanics, good athlete but without premium speed. He's a little Olerud-esque at the plate. The defensive questions are mostly centered around his elbow - he had TJ surgery before last season. He may play some second base at UNC, but he's not going to play there in the bigs. Hopefully his arm is fine. If it is, he could be an average or better left fielder or a passable center fielder early in his career. That's a nice bat, but not ideal for 1B or a corner outfield spot. But he's a safe bet at the plate to contribute, and that high probability carries some value, pushing his overall draft stock into the top 8-10 at least. |
| 22. By: Slurve on 02-19-2009 01:38:05 So basically he's gonna have twice as many doubles than HR type power? |
| 23. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-19-2009 01:41:15 oh yeah. Steve Finley-esque in that manner, but with better OBPs. |
| 24. By: Slurve on 02-19-2009 01:48:25 So will he hit .300 with a .350-.400 OBP with a SLG.450+ or is that to high. IF he can play 2nd though how will that affect his overall value? |
| 25. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-19-2009 01:58:29 He could be a 300/380+/450 type, sure. If he could play second at an average level or better, he's a really valuable player. How many 2B that aren't liabilities in the field that have done that since you were born? Not many. |
| 26. By: ThePaul on 02-19-2009 03:03:20 If the M's take Ackley as a CF with the #2 pick, then he'd better be a future superstar, and if he is then that's awesome. But there's a reason college CF's usually aren't drafted in the top half of the first round. I'd much prefer pitching even if that name's not Stratsburg. |
| 27. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-19-2009 03:05:17 Usually the future stud CF's are drafted as SS's. |
| 28. By: Uncle Al on 02-19-2009 03:05:31 Holy shit Jason I just saw where they signed Derek Lowe to a contract after they signed Griffey. There has to be a big trade coming to follow the Lowe signing and it'll involve the M's giving up some pitching don't you think. Have you gotten any wind of this? They still need a LH bat for LF and could possibly use another LH bat for 1B for the future. |
| 29. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-19-2009 03:07:26 That's a $10 fine. Lowe inked a deal in Atlanta in Jan. 13 for 4/$60m. |
| 30. By: Uncle Al on 02-19-2009 03:38:59 Take a look at Lookout Landing. For some reason the deal with Atlanta wasn't a deal. |
| 31. By: Uncle Al on 02-19-2009 03:43:54 Its a fake news story. Sorry. |
| 32. By: Roy Weaver Stuckey on 02-19-2009 04:01:42 ^^haha...wow^^ ...Where's the notebook tab? |
| 33. By: dewey on 02-19-2009 05:37:02 Jackson ..Part of the reason we our in this spot is because we kept players to long our as you said feel good storys! You know how you make fans happy? YOU WIN GAMES! How do we find out id Vlad our Clement can become M.L. players if they dont get there chance? I dont think Grif gets us the A.L.West title but maybe im missing something ..am i? |
| 34. By: DRWheelock on 02-19-2009 07:40:43 "The ultimate point is to win and the organization should be aiming EVERY ounce of energy and resources doing that." I agree Jason, but this is also a business, and JR is the biggest icon in MLB. Especially considering Arod's link to Steroids now. With all of JRs injuries there is NO WAY he will be related to any kind of steroids in this era, which makes him the ONLY ligitimate guy out, in the game today, there that has a chance to reach 700 HRs. He is guaranteed lock to the Hall of fame "as long as" his name doesn't showup on the ROIDS list. AND what he's done for Seattle the 1st 10 years of his career, there is ONLY 1 guy in MLB that can bring in top $$$ for the Mariners during this rebuilding stage... Yes it's about 'winning' baseball games, but being a business it's about bringing back fans...not only to Seattle...but in this Steroids era..."If" JRs has been clean it's going to do a LOT more! |
| 35. By: jgstecker on 02-19-2009 08:22:36 Who are these kids Griffey is going to be blocking? Clement and... Wlad? Sounds to me like Wlad isn't going to play much anyway, if he even makes the team. I'm OK with Griffey taking ABs away from Chavez in LF, if Clement needs to DH regularly. I know USSMariner makes the case that Chavez's glove makes up the difference between his and Griffey's bats, but its not enough to make me want to sit Griffey when Clement needs to DH. Griffey could be in the way if/when Moore and Saunders get called up. Then we'd have a little C/DH/LF logjam. But that's down the road aways. Saunders didn't even get an invite to big league camp, so it doesn't seem like he's getting rushed up here anytime soon. |
| 36. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-19-2009 08:27:44 Wlad will get PT. And Griffey should not be playing the field, if for no other reason than to keep him off the DL. |
| 37. By: Uncle Al on 02-19-2009 09:41:43 Looks like the next priority is trade Washburn or Batista and get a LH bat for LF. Balentien should get some AB's in LF or DH against LH pitching. There is no reason to rush Saunders or Halman with a new LH bat in LF. Bavasi really left Zduriencik a mess of shit to clean up and he needs a little more time to clean it up and go for 2010. |
| 38. By: Jackson45 on 02-19-2009 11:26:57 Griffey is not going to take much, if any, playing time away from anyone. One thing that hasn't been talked about is how Griffey can provide a veteran presence in the clubhouse on the offensive side. Nobody likes Ichiro and he doesn't talk to his teammates anyways. It has been reported that Yuni and Lopez and some of the other Dominican players have a "clique" and tend to stay in their own groups. I think Griffey will lighten up the clubhouse and be a teaching voice to some of the younger players. |
| 39. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-19-2009 11:46:20 How old are you guys and have you not paid attention to Griffey's career at all? He's no leader. |
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