| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 10-31-2011 |
In the fourth of a series of profiles of potential winter targets for the Seattle Mariners, Grady Sizemore's new-found freedom could provide the M's with an option that may not have otherwise presented itself.Subscribers can check out the file on Grady Sizemore, with a projected lineup included, by clicking here.
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Check out similar analysis on New York Yankees outfielder Nick Swisher, New York Mets third baseman David Wright and Florida Marlins slugger Logan Morrison.
The M's payroll situation is outlined here.
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Comments
The following 18 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: mjkleko on 10-31-2011 04:12:41 I would support the Mariner's decision to make an offer for Grady, in that I believe he offers some actual upside. I can surmise that at least a few of these risk/reward type moves need to be made to drastically improve the M's beleaguered offense, while not having the budget go bust. Yet while this is altogether obvious, in facing respected representation of a hometown kid, offering an incentive laced deal is not what Jack should pursue. I don't necessarily feel that reestablishing Grady's value relies in voluminous stats. Rather if he took it slow and became an efficient and consistent player as the season progresses he could just as easily be in line for a big payday after a 1-yr deal then simple going out there for 1xx games and putting up solid-but-unspectacular numbers. In this case, why not offer a reasonable # of guaranteed dollars and say 'hey kid, take your time,' let him comeback slow and steady without the added financial element to the thought of valuable ML PA's ticking away. I understand how this could very easily be argued as a waste of money, because, what if he barely sees the field? That few million could have been useful in getting a reliable back end arm so given an injury we don't see a Vasquez situation, or help in a Figgins bad-contract swap. True. But maybe we can play the "Hometown Hero" card and argue he's got the potential to put a good chunk of fans in seats, especially if he puts it together. Just think of an Ichiro-Sizemore-Hernandez commercial; international/Hometown/Latino, the baseball marketing triumvirate! Any thoughts on guaranteed over incentive or perhaps what other low-risk high reward guys are out there? And also, I wanted to know what the report is on Wilson Betemit? Could he be an option at 3rd? |
| 2. By: Jason A. Churchill on 10-31-2011 04:19:26 This is the advantage of such a contract, mjkleko. if he doesn't perform, he can be sat without any large salaries contributing the club's decision to play him or not. He hits, he plays. He doesn't, Wells, etc, get their chance. But there is NO chance Sizemore signs in Seattle for a low salary without having the chance to earn more with a healthy season. That is the risk the team takes in hoping he's healthy. |
| 3. By: aerichner on 10-31-2011 08:34:09 Jason, how much does a player's trade value change from his first successful season to the next. For example, Michael Pineda had a great rookie year and he gets mentioned in trade offers for Joey Votto etc - if he repeats/improves next year, how much does that improve his trade value? Would it change at all from Pineda headlining a package right now to Pineda being able to fetch a stud by himself next year? I was actually thinking about this more about Mike Carp than Pineda tho. He wasnt a top prospect but seems to have improved rom 2010 to 2011. If he manages to repeat his 2011 line for a full season, could he go from not being able to get us an impact player in a trade this offseason to helping us get an impact 3B or C in 2012? (Others, try not to spin this into a why we should/shouldnt trade Mike Carp thread, just asking how big of a jump in trade value (if any) players get after their first successul season to the next.) |
| 4. By: ripperlv on 10-31-2011 09:26:50 I enjoy this profile series. Once again, I think you make a case for not getting the mentioned profile, this time, Sizemore. I can see why he wouldn't play for the M's unless he really just wants to be home, in which case I couldn't blame him for that, but doubtful. Hopefully, Carp becomes a professional hitter in the Raul Ibanez mold, over the next couple years. Wells has displayed some hope, needs to fix those holes in his swing. I'm guessing a cheap Carp/Wells LF combo next season, unless JZ comes across a deal he can't turn down. I don't see Sizemore as an option unless JZ is convinced his production will return and outdo Carp/Wells in a significant fashion. |
| 5. By: aerichner on 10-31-2011 09:44:49 Sticking to the topic of the post - I do like the idea of signing Sizemore and hopefully getting lucky and I do like how the lineup above looks. It all depends on what the final trade package for the other mentioned player would be. I've stated before that I wouldn't agree with the price we'd have to pay for said player but after a few days I'd be over it if Im looking at a lineup like that. Loving these posts with the potential lineups listed. Thanks. |
| 6. By: Rudolf on 10-31-2011 11:33:03 I'm sure some people will take offense with this, but I'm going to say it anyway. By no means am I accusing anyone of anything, just pointing something out. 2009 was the year MLB started cracking down on performance enhancing substances. It just so happens to be a year in which many players see substantial drops in their slugging pct.. It could be coincidence. However, look at the #s for guys like Sizemore, Wright, Berkman, V. Wells, A. Ramirez, D. Ortiz. A few of them have bounced back to a certain extent. Some have struggled with injuries since. The bottom line is all of them lost power in 2009, most for the first time in years. Even Bobby Abreu saw his slugging percent fall to a 13 year low. Pudge Rodriguez as well. Jimmy Rollins dropped off the year before, but what a drop it was. Of all these players, (and I'm sure there are many more), Sizemore tanked the hardest. Why? He's the youngest. He was coming off a career high in home runs. Magglio Ordonez-- another player who dipped in 2009-- came back from a terrible knee injury. How come this young guy became so fragile after four straight seasons of 600+ ABs? I know this is conjecture and that not all players recover from injuries the same. But the pattern... In my opinion, expecting anything special from Sizemore is a pipe dream. Let Wells/Carp/Saunders/Robinson battle it out. |
| 7. By: jgstecker on 10-31-2011 12:49:47 I find it hard to project Sizemore to be much more productive than Casper Wells at this point. Sizemore has been awful the past two years when he can make it on the field. Maybe he looks more attractive as the offseason progresses and the better options are off the table. For now, I'll pass. |
| 8. By: maqman on 10-31-2011 14:54:18 I can see Sizemore as a potential turnaround candidate on an incentivised contract. However I think he will either resign with the Indians for a similar contract or chose a contender with a smaller park and give himself a better chance of showing up well enough to get a multi-year deal. |
| 9. By: Timberwolf on 10-31-2011 15:56:21 Sizemore needs to take the Adrian Beltre to Boston route and pick where he will be the most comfortable. I think it is a risk well worth taking to go after him. This is also a team that needs to sell tickets and the return of the native son is an attractive scenario that makes hime worth more here than anywhere else. If we give him a chance for huge incentives, there needs to be a team option for 2013 as quid pro quo. It will be an interesting negotiations process for Sizemore and his agent. |
| 10. By: Mackie on 10-31-2011 16:22:01 If they can get Grady Sizemore to sign for a reasonably low amount and include some incentives based on performance and games played, I'd be all for it. I don't see how it would be a bad move. He isn't quite like a hitter's version of Bedard, but he has had some injury problems. If he is healthy, they ought to take a chance on him. It seems someone with experience who could play a great LF and also spell Gutierrez in CF would be great to have. |
| 11. By: mjkleko on 10-31-2011 17:12:41 "This is the advantage of such a contract, mjkleko. if he doesn't perform, he can be sat without any large salaries contributing the club's decision to play him or not. He hits, he plays. He doesn't, Wells, etc, get their chance." Obviously these are the advantages to an incentive laden contract. But that's not really what I was getting at. Rather, looking at the situation from Sizemore's perspective. Clearly Seattle isn't the only team which will try and get Sizemore to come in on an incentive based deal and my post brings up the idea of going the other way, giving him decent money and more importantly time without having to reach x PAs to make money looming over his head during rehab. The point is, after coming off multiple knee surgeries, Sizemore may be more valuable getting to the team in July at 100% rather than May at 70% where he may try and rush his rehab. "But there is NO chance Sizemore signs in Seattle for a low salary without having the chance to earn more with a healthy season. That is the risk the team takes in hoping he's healthy." But yeah, here's where your knowledge of, well, everything pro baseball comes into play. You don't think Grady would take a deal (hypothetical numbers)which pays him 4mil total no matter what versus an incentive deal which could have a high of 7 or a low of 1? I'm not arguing, just I feel you may have misunderstood my point. With multiple teams going the incentive-based road, might Seattle standout if they go the other direction? Or is this just the Bavasi in me talking? |
| 12. By: KingFelix on 10-31-2011 17:34:31 Sign Sizemore to a 5M deal with incentives and a club option for a four year extension worth big dollars if he turns it around in 2012. Then trade Pineda and Carp for Upton. This would give us a nice lineup and maybe Sizemore can take over RF in 2013 for Ichiro. Our 2012 lineup would look nice with some upside: RF Ichiro CF Gutz 2B Ackley LF Upton DH Sizemore 1B Smoak 3B Seager C. Olivo SS Ryan |
| 13. By: masonb on 10-31-2011 17:54:00 It's gonna take alot more than Carp and Pineda to get Upton. The D'Backs aren't exactly hurting for young pitching. |
| 14. By: valencia on 10-31-2011 19:44:53 No, a non-incentive deal shows you believe in his talent and health and you're willing to risk it, which might be attractive for a guy who's trying to reestablish value. Thing is, I don't think he's worth a non-incentive deal. Remember Greg Oden? Microfracture surgery. Sizemore, microfracture surgery. If you expect Greg Oden can play a full NBA season at his peak level, then I guess you would be okay with Sizemore on a normal deal. Thing is Greg Oden is a bust and I don't want the MLB version of him, even if he is a hometown hero. |
| 15. By: Edman on 10-31-2011 20:28:22 $5 million guaranteed for Sizemore? No thank you. It's at least $2 million too heavy, considering his risk of further injury. I'd be willing to give him a $3 million deal, with incentives.....but no more than that. Let another team that can afford to lose more then $3 million take their chances. That money could go toward helping get a healthy player. |
| 16. By: Mackie on 10-31-2011 22:04:09 Agreed Edman, when I said "reasonably low amount" that's what I was thinking too. |
| 17. By: FWBrodie on 11-01-2011 16:20:49 Wish they could just have him take over the Figgins contract. |
| 18. By: rotoenquire on 11-01-2011 17:55:31 I still think the M's will wait on the F/A crop next year. Sizemore at a good price I like a lot. If that happens having 2 guys that are injury question marks to bounce back on one roster and Figgins as a dud. Gutz could be on the outs with a strong Spring start.. |
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