| By Jason A. Churchill | ![]() | By 02-11-2009 |
When the Seattle Mariners traded closer J.J. Putz to the Mets for seven players in a three-team deal, the most important piece of the return package came from the Cleveland Indians, not Putz’s new employers in New York.| 1. By: marinersfan_1040 on 02-11-2009 05:27:33 I think he's gonna be a really good out fielder for the M's and he's young enough to stick around for a few yrs down the like.. good pick up by the mariners |
| 2. By: jgstecker on 02-11-2009 08:25:31 My question is: How good does Halman have to be to push Gutierrez out of CF in a year and a half? I can't see a lineup featuring both those guys as right-handed out-machines in Safeco. One of them will likely end up as a platoon partner for Saunders in LF, I'd imagine. |
| 3. By: acqb1424 on 02-11-2009 08:25:34 Jason, as always, great work on this story and the Clement story. One question, I know it's never a bad thing to have too much talent at one position, but let's just say that within the next two years Halman and Saunders deem themselves ready to play in the big leagues, what happens to the outfield then? If we assume Wlad doesn't pan out (I'm 50/50 on him) and Ichiro stays in right, Gutierrez in center, which of the two would be better suited to play left? Do you see either player as trade bait? |
| 4. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-11-2009 11:51:36 Re: Halman How good does he have to be? Better than Gutierrez is all, I'd think. But Halman has a long way to go, IMO. I think he's two years worth of ABs in AA and AAA from being big-league ready. He has a lot to prove at the plate. I also think there's still a chance he's a corner guy rather than a center fielder, but I think this year will tell the tale on that part of his game. |
| 5. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-11-2009 11:54:47 re: acqb If the M's are lucky enough to have both Saunders and Halman pan out to be big league regulars, that's awesome. You just trade from that strength and move forward. Ideally, Ichiro retires or goes back to Japan after continuing to decline as he swallows up 16 mil a season in his twilight years and there is no issue. If Wlad doesn't come to camp in shape, the M's are going to have a tough time justifying playing him in left. He got lazy last June and July and was probably 10-15 pounds out of shape. |
| 6. By: Marlin Man on 02-11-2009 11:58:28 Jason- I don't Ichiro retirement in the cards- he'll be in USA playing until he gets his 3000 hits and HOF. MM |
| 7. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-11-2009 12:33:32 Yeah, I know. He'll drag the team down in the process, but hey, he's Japanese. |
| 8. By: rocketdawg31 on 02-11-2009 12:52:27 Out of curiousity, Jason- do you think Saunders is a bit closer than Halman in terms of having been proven at the plate? Like I think I've told you before, I have a tough time getting a read on how good Saunders can be because he always gives me the impression that there's more to him- he's just not using it. But, to me, Saunders is in AAA-Tacoma this year. And his power-potential will remain quite modest. |
| 9. By: acqb1424 on 02-11-2009 13:41:47 I'm sure this will be covered in the handbook when it comes out, but Jason, what do you think we have in Halman? In your opinion what do you think he turns out to be and will the Mariners push him to Tacoma this year? |
| 10. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-11-2009 13:55:00 You'll have to wait for the Handbook for that... I'm trying to carve out the time to put the finishing touches on that ultra-soon so I can get it set up to be printed. |
| 11. By: Lonnie on 02-11-2009 14:06:37 acqb1424 sez: "I'm sure this will be covered in the handbook when it comes out, but Jason, what do you think we have in Halman? In your opinion what do you think he turns out to be and will the Mariners push him to Tacoma this year?" Jason is the alpha when it comes to determining what we have in a prospect, but I just thought I'd throw this out. Halman has been tabbed as the most athletic person in the M's system (I believe Jason said this, but I'm not sure). What I have seen is that quite often these kind of guys generally depend on their natural athleticism to get them through rather than honing their skills. I hope that this is not true of Halman because his ceiling, as determined by his athletic ability, is outstandingly high. In a good, nurturning environment Halman could be a beast. Lonnie |
| 12. By: acqb1424 on 02-11-2009 15:31:34 I'm excited for this year's edition of the Handbook. I'm a fan of Halman, so I hope that he can put it together, work on his plate discipline, and continue to progress. That speed and power combo would be nice to have in our lineup. Jason, now that Abreu and Dunn have signed, is it a foregone conclusion that we'll be hearing about the M's inking Junior in the next few days? If he could be had at about $1-4 mil for 1 year I'd be in favor of that. What do you think? |
| 13. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-11-2009 15:34:56 I'm not going to make this a big deal, but I was told this afternoon that Griffey has already agreed to terms - with someone, presumably Seattle, but that the M's were weighing their options with Abreu, Anderson, et al. |
| 14. By: Gustafson on 02-11-2009 15:40:30 Wow. Potentially a big piece of news... Thanks for the update, Jason. I can see Abreu or Dunn over Junior. But Garrett or Junior? Pretty much a wash. Tie should go to the sentimental fave if the money is the same. |
| 15. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-11-2009 16:01:32 I'm not sure Seattle is that team, but... if I am Jack, this is what I'm thinking - If Clement and Johjima are likely to share duties at catcher, how do we get Clement (or both) regular at-bats if Griffey, also left-handed, is also a prime bat to fit in at DH? Maybe I need to trade Clement BEFORE I sign Griffey, or anyone else for that role. Maybe I need to trade Wlad before I sign Griffey or Anderson. Maybe Clement starts the 2009 season in Tacoma - again. Maybe Griffey or Anderson makes no baseball sense at all because I believe in Clement's bat, even if his glove doesn't work out behind the plate. If I give up on Clement or Wlad for good, will Griffey/Anderson be worth it? The good news here is that it's not going to cost the Mariners $5 mil guaranteed. That's what Abreu got, and he's far and away a better bet to hit than is Griffey or Anderson. In closing, I'd be surprised if the club doesn't announce the Griffey signing Thursday morning or afternoon. |
| 16. By: Gustafson on 02-11-2009 16:13:57 Yeah the question marks about Clement's ability to handle defensive duties (physically or skills-wise) behind the dish certainly makes it a little questionable. Even WITH Clement, I believe this team needs one more solid LH stick. (Maybe more than one, frankly). My guess is they go with a pure platoon at catcher and Griffey is the DH pretty much full time. The odd man out at that point would appear to be Wlad or Johjima. |
| 17. By: Lonnie on 02-11-2009 16:15:16 With those questions in mind, what kind impact does a Griffey signing have on the team? If Clement gets sent down to Tacoma, or gets traded, or Wlad gets traded, does this negatively impact how the team is viewed by it's players? Or will they (mostly the vets) understand the move is motivated by the business end of the team? Lonnie |
| 18. By: 01v-dubs on 02-11-2009 16:16:28 Maybe I'm not thinking about this enough, but couldn't Griffey DH when Clement catches, and when Clement DH's Griffey can either take a day off (he's pretty old) or give one of the OF a day off. |
| 19. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-11-2009 16:45:37 That leaves Johjima on the bench A LOT, and that's not going to happen, at least not until he proves he's awful like 08. |
| 20. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-11-2009 16:47:18 I don't know that the players will view the team much differently, except for the Griffey effect. He's a proven star, and players like having that around. And to be honest, I think fewer than half the current roster will be here when the team starts winning 90+ games anyway, so I really don't care what Betancourt, Lopez, Johjima, Washburn, Batista, and many others think. |
| 21. By: acqb1424 on 02-11-2009 17:00:25 So assuming Griffey is signed, our lineup against RHP could look something like this: 1. Ichiro - RF 2. Lopez - 2B (I'm wondering if he'll hit further down the order) 3. Griffey - DH (He shouldn't be here, but to balance out the lefties, he's fits). 4. Beltre - 3B 5. Branyan - 1B 6. Gutierrez - CF 7. Clement - C 8. Betancourt/Cedeno - SS 9. Chavez - LF Against RHP that would appear to at least be a very balanced lineup. Against LHP you could go with something like the following: 1. Ichiro - RF 2. Gutierrez - CF 3. Lopez - 2B (We really don't have a three hole hitter, yeesh) 4. Beltre - 3B 5. Johjima - C 6. Sweeney/Shelton/Morse - 1B 7. Balentien - DH 8. Cedeno/Betancourt - SS 9. Chavez - LF Neither lineup would be fantastic, but at least they would be balanced. I think you could bring Junior in and still find enough AB's for everyone. Obviously that would leave Johjima on the bench except for againt LHPs and spot starts, especially if it's something like Clement catches four games a week and Johjima catches two, hopefully against LHP. Balentien and Griffey could perform a platoon at DH while rotating in the outfield. Any chance Johjima gets some work at first base? That would be a way for him to get a few more at bats... |
| 22. By: Blowgun7 on 02-11-2009 17:40:46 I dont mind Griffey coming in as the DH vs righties... A smart manager like Wakamatsu should be able to manuever things so that Clement catches on days when Griffey is in the lineup vs RHPs.. And then be able to DH Clement vs LHPs, Joh at catcher, and Griffey the day off.. If Clement had severe platoon splits i'd be bothered, but Jeff hits lefties just as well as righties, if you believe his minor league numbers.. Balentein still has a shot to compete in LF with Chavez.. I see no downside to this move.. Plus, JOhjima will prove worthless pretty quickley IMO, and that assures plenty of ABs for Clement |
| 23. By: Docmilo on 02-11-2009 18:19:49 Let's hope Johjima isn't worthless this year and is tradable to Boston next year or even this year if Varitek sucks by the July deadline. Joh would benefit from their park and I think wouldn't get attitude from their pitching staff with Dice-K over there |
| 24. By: Docmilo on 02-11-2009 18:21:19 . Oops. |
| 25. By: Lamda on 02-11-2009 19:28:01 I personally don't see how you DON'T give the LF job to Wlad for the first month or two. Our team has little to no power and Griff is not going to change that. They have to put Wlad out there and pray that he stops swinging at low-and-away/non-strike breaking balls and starts putting up some of the decent numbers he had in AAA. If he proves he can't do it then by all means - put the defensive specialist Endy out there to run everything down and have the exact same result at the plate as Wlad does. |
| 26. By: jgstecker on 02-11-2009 21:39:50 I think blowgun has it right. Clement is the one lefty bat that we want in there vs. LHP, if for no other reason than to continue his growth. Essentially that makes Griffey and Johjima platoon partners. Joh will also get starts vs. RHPs when Clement needs a day off and when Wakamatsu is so sick of Chavez's bat in LF that he sends Griffey out there. I bet there'll be at least a dozen games where we see Griff start out in LF, Clement at DH, and Joh at C (including Opening Day). |
| 27. By: Blowgun7 on 02-11-2009 21:46:00 I think it's pretty simple Endy/Wlad split LF Joh/Clement split C Clement/Griffey split DH Branyan/RH stick split 1B A manager with a brain should be able to match these guys up properly vs the opposing pitchers |
| 28. By: The Great Pumpkin on 02-11-2009 22:53:10 jgstecker is right, Griffey has to be in the starting line-up opening day, dont you think? Most likely Opening day will be against Liriano, a lefty. Here's my guess at the line-up. 1) Ichiro CF (L) 2) Lopez - 2B (R) 3) Griffey - LF (L) 4) Beltre - 3B (R) 5) Sweeney - 1B (tough call) (R) 6) Johjima - C (R) 7) Clement - DH (L) 8) Gutz - CF (R) 9) Betancourt - SS (R) I think the biggest question mark is who will play 1B against lefties? Maybe Clement gets some time there occasionally. |
| 29. By: Blowgun7 on 02-11-2009 22:56:23 Why would Griffey be in the Opening Day lineup vs Liriano? I thought we were trying not to be a stupid organization anymore.. Now we're gonna play Griffey in LF against a lefty?? Why?? |
| 30. By: marinerseric on 02-11-2009 23:07:03 Question for Jason. I am no scout I will admit to that. But with Johjima to me his power is not the issue, its the approach he has at the plate. He wants to pull,pull,pull and is like Lopez and Bentacourt suseptable to the outer half of the plate right? I never saw video of him in Japan, but seems like half the time he hits with men on base he pulls that outside fast ball to the short stop for a double play. He also swings at the first pitch way too often and without speed he is an easy out when the ball is hit on the ground. Do veterns not get the same coaching as rookies? I would have thought some coach would have told him to hit the ball the other way like Brett Boone on steriods. |
| 31. By: shemberry on 02-12-2009 00:08:03 Jason, Do you think that the Dunn signing impacts the Nationals ability to sign Strasburg? With 2 top ten picks and Dunn might they have to pass on Strasburg? |
| 32. By: Roy Weaver Stuckey on 02-12-2009 00:23:48 Why is everyone so obsessed with Strasburg? Is it because high School pitchers are twice less likely than college pitchers to make it to the show? |
| 33. By: DRWheelock on 02-12-2009 01:10:57 I'm betting Johjima returns to 2006 & 2007 form and hits 280BA with 16-18 HRs! Obviously if they platoon Clement/Joh 50/50 then his AB will go down along with that HR figure I posted here. |
| 34. By: DRWheelock on 02-12-2009 01:13:33 Jason - Any chance you think we maybe able to get BOTH JR and Anderson? I'd put money on it that JR signs for less than $3M with NO deferred money! And Anderson's deal will be similar if not less. I think this payroll 'no money' talk is BS! We are currently $32M UNDER our 2008 payroll as we stand today! And that's after the Felix and Bedard arbitration figures came in. In fact I think the figure I posted didn't take into consideration the approx $1M that we saved on the Hielman trade to the Cubs either, because Cedeno is club controlled for about league minimum. So we are sitting at about $83-85M for our 2009 payroll so far. I'm PISSED that Seattle let Abreu sneak into the Angels lineup for $5M. And I'm hearing now that the incentives are only for about $1M. THAT IS A STEAL for Abreu. Seattle could of afforded to pickup Abreu AND Griffey. Now it would only take about $5M to land BOTH Anderson and JR. Anderson plays better LF defense than JR, but JR has the potential 30HR bat if healthy. I say Seattle will ink JR by the weekend, and Garrett Anderson will be left signing a minor league contract with a Spring invite & a $1.5M contract "if" he makes the team he signs with. BOTH JR and Anderson in our lineup surrounding Beltre sure looks enticing to me. I know they are aged vets, but after Moreno stole Abreu from us what better way to counter that signing with signing a combo of JR and Anderson. Anderson's UZR is pretty decent out in LF. I still see Washburn gone before then end of ST. I see a potential Nats/Seattle match here. They need half way decent SP, and they need to swap a BAD contract out...and they have been trying to move Nick Johnson now for 2 years! We could EASILY swap Washburn's contract for Nick Johnson's and come out $5M ahead. I'd put money on it that the Nats won't even require cash from Seattle in that deal, since they need half way decent SP. Washburn in the NL would be better than the AL. Heck, I'd just trade Washburn and $5M for a AAA prospect at this point! That would pay for JR and Andersons contract, and still keep us at a < $85M payroll for 2009. Thoughts?! |
| 35. By: DRWheelock on 02-12-2009 01:15:07 We could of easily signed Abreu for that $5M contract. I'm hearing his incentive is ONLY $1M!!! ANYBODY but the Angels GOD!!! ANYBODY! They got a STEAL! |
| 36. By: DRWheelock on 02-12-2009 01:22:15 shemberry - just a FYI... MLBTradeRumors had the owner and GM of the Nats commenting on Strasburg last week. The GM stated that there hasn't been a #1 pick like Strasburg in 15 years, and that they don't come by that often. I'd guarantee there is NO WAY they will pass on Strasburg! Damnit!!! With all that revenue sharing that trickles to them they can afford whatever signing bonus Boras throws at them. The ONLY way they pass on him is if they get wind that Strasburg won't sign with them, which is a possibility considering Strasburg prefers the West coast from what I heard. I'm sure the closer we get to the draft the more PR we are going to hear about it. I also heard out of the top 3 picks in the draft Strasburg is hoping that he ends up as the #3 pick and goes to Pads. I'd pick Seattle over the Pads anyday, especially with our updated D! :) So it's a possibility still, but it just is very unlikely! |
| 37. By: DRWheelock on 02-12-2009 01:24:55 Jason - question here Is it legal to trade draft picks similar to what you can do in some fantasy leagues? I'm just curious?! Hell I'd give the Nats Washburn and pay his ENTIRE contract, and take Nick Johnson and his salary for the overall #1 pick. Ok that might be extreme, but can GMs trade draft picks, and/or give up certain round picks in combo trades?! |
| 38. By: StandinPat on 02-12-2009 01:50:46 You can't trade picks. You have to wait a year, not sure if its a year after the pick or a year after they sign, but basically you cant immediately trade them. As far as Griffey v. Anderson goes, if its mainly as a DH Griffey > Anderson, Anderson has kept a solid average over the years, but still cant draw a walk and his power is all but gone. If you are talking about playing them in the field 100 or so games, Anderson's defense starts to even things out. But, we aren't, either one would be a DH, so why not take the better bat AND the sentimental favorite? As far as Abreu and the Angels....How are you mad by this? Its not anywhere close to the M's adding Abreu's bat as a DH with no options anywhere close. The Angel's literally have 6 outfielders now, PLUS a Chone Figgins v Brandon Wood competition for third....literally you are talking about a 1 win difference over what they currently had on their roster, when you factor in defense and roster flexibility. Don't forget Abreu cant play D at ALL, Vlad is getting there, and Mathews can't do alot of anything, all of their presence's is gonna reduce Willits's playing time, who DOES actually have some defensive value. Basically the Angels are NOT a very good ball club. Their one saving grace is that they should have quite the rotation, but other than that....their offense will be ok, and their defense will be awful, and I'm really not sure how their bullpen would be any better than ours. To me Offense Angels Defense M's Rotation, depending on Health, tie Bullpen again tie, I mean Fuentes? Really? Thats your solution? The biggest thing in all of this is that in every category the M's have upside and the Angels simply don't. For once its once to look at this team and realize that most of our question marks are young players with upside that can actually outperform expectations vs players that we just hope and pray dont fall of the preverbal cliff. |
| 39. By: Roy Weaver Stuckey on 02-12-2009 03:09:30 DRWheelock, You're living in a fantasy world if you don't think the M's have a budget this year of about 20% less than last year. Last year the M's had the highest payroll per attendance ratio in MLB. Read a baseball economics book or two and you will have a better understanding on why the M's should have lowered their payroll right when Bavasi took over. You will also have a better appreciation for the amount of money our ownership spends on our payroll. I am sure it will go up next year and we will have a ton of money to spend with Wash, Batista and Beltre gone. Maybe we'll re-sign beltre but I doubt it... he is a Boras client. Nick Johnson, Adam LaRoche, Jason Bay, Matt Holiday, Rick Ankiel, Vlad Guerrero and Xavier Nady are among some of the FAs in 2010 if the site I looked at was correct. |
| 40. By: DRWheelock on 02-12-2009 07:43:03 Stuckey - $85M is a heck of a lot more than 20% of the 2008 payroll. 20% off of $117 is $93.6M. That shows we could of easily signed abreu for the price he went for ALONG with JR for $2-3M. StandinPat - I was referring to trading players after the draft, I was asking if 2 teams can get together and swap or trade picks? I personally haven't seen it done except for fantasy baseball leagues, so I'm guessing not. (Example: Seattle trades Washburn + $8M in cash to Nats for their June #1 round pick) |
| 41. By: CrustyJuggler on 02-12-2009 09:05:56 You can't trade draft picks in baseball. Its against the rules and rightfully so. With no salary cap, you would have the rich teams buying up all the top ten picks. If the Nats were to take that Washburn+ 8millin example you gave, whats stopping the yankees from offering 10 million per pick and getting the top ten picks? It would skew the balance hugely in favor of rich teams because stupid small market teams would take the money and run. |
| 42. By: Uncle Al on 02-12-2009 09:38:58 The M's need to move one of their three turds which Bavasi stuck them with before they have any money to bring in a new player. The salary committed is now $91M and another $5.5M in Prorated Signing Bonuses. They are in for a total of $96.5M and need to move either Washburn, Batista, or Silva. |
| 43. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-12-2009 12:00:15 That's only true for BIG money players, Al. They're planning on signing Griffey without a deal in place for any of the three contracts in Silva, Batista or Washburn. Juggler, I disagree, big time. if you allow the trading of picks, all you have to do to stop the small market teams from selling their draft picks is regulate. -No cash for draft pick trades. -Limit the number of draft picks teams are allowed to trade in a given year. -Adopt the NBA's rule that can't trade your first rounder two straight years. It's not that difficult at all, and there's no reason for the players union and ownership to disagree on such regulations. The two sides have talked about trading picks before, but I think an international draft and fixing the draft comp system is higher on their list. |
| 44. By: Roy Weaver Stuckey on 02-12-2009 13:21:59 DRWheelock, Where does your $85M figure come from? Last I heard we were at $93M and that was a few weeks ago, since then we've signed some guys and traded Heilman. |
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