Prospect Insider - Offseason Target: Zack Greinke

Offseason Target: Zack Greinke

By Adam H. Wong

By 11-06-2012

Although the Seattle Mariners have a ton of pitching depth, considering how volatile pitchers can be, particularly prospects, it wouldn't hurt to keep their options open. The overall free agent market is thin this year, but there are rotation options.

There are always reasons why deals are possible and why they won't happen. Some players fit, some don't. Among those that do, a few may fit better than others. The trade and financial costs are also major factors. Here, we'll dig into those factors, as well as analyze the potential impact of the player in question.

Here's who we covered thus far:

Shin-Soo Choo | Brett Lawrie | Nick Swisher | Grady Sizemore
Justin Morneau | Billy Butler | Edwin Jackson | Logan Morrison
Josh Willingham | Stephen Drew | Kyle Lohse | Carlos Gonzalez | Todd Frazier

Now, let's consider the top starting pitcher on the free agent market.

What Zack Greinke brings
Since Greinke hit his stride in 2009, he's been one of the more difficult players for me to evaluate. My instincts want to say that he's overvalued, but the peripherals just don't line up with that notion. He's been above-average in both strikeouts-per-nine and walks-per-nine over the past four years, making it pretty hard to find a statistical downside to his game when it comes to handing him a long-term contract.

Greinke probably comes up shy of being a true ace, but he's close, thanks to plus command and control and the weapons he brings to the mound 30-plus times per year. The anxiety concerns seem to have been overblown, as he was just fine in Los Angeles and he handled the pennant race and postseason in Milwaukee without any trace of incident.

Contract
The Angels are expected to push hard to re-sign the 29-year-old, and the Rangers, Orioles, Red Sox, Dodgers and perhaps the Yankees could get involved, too. Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson are signed through 2016, and the fact that both Ervin Santana and Dan Haren are now gone -- Santana was traded to the Royals and Haren's option was declined Saturday -- creates an actual need for the Halos. If Los Angeles wants to push towards the postseason in 2013 -- and of course they do -- GM Jerry Dipoto and owner Arte Moreno are certainly going to press to retain Greinke's services.

Considering the demand and his durability, Greinke is likely to get multiple offers of five-plus seasons at $20 million or more per season, making it possible he surpasses the deal the San Francisco Giants gave Matt Cain last season. There are those that believe $150 million is within reach.

Why would Seattle?
For the Mariners, Felix Hernandez is only a sure thing until 2014, and he could be the lone reliable starter the club has rolling into 2012 if the M's trade Jason Vargas rather than pay him upwards of $8 million via arbitration.

Hisashi Iwakuma has a half season under his belt after spending the first half of 2012 as a reliever and there's a better than good chance the club's offense still comes in below average in 2013 -- thanks to a poor free agent market for hitters. As a result, the Mariners could take the run-prevention route, and the best way to do that is to add great starting pitching. This is where Greinke comes into play.

Conclusion
It's difficult to believe the Mariners see Greinke as a value at $125-150 million, and there's no chance they get into a bidding war with the big market clubs. There's no doubt the M's could use Greinke to support Hernandez, which would give them more freedom to trade pitching prospects for bats, so don't count them out on starting pitching this winter. Greinke, however, is likely out of reach, and that is especially true when considering Greinke's certain desire to win and play somewhere he's comfortable.

Adam H. Wong can be reached via email at wong@prospectinsider.com. Follow him on Twitter here.

offseason-target:-zack-greinke

Comments
The following 8 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: jgstecker on 11-06-2012 16:17:43
If the team wants to make a big name splash this offseason, signing Greinke may be the safest option.

It would certainly free up some trading pieces.

2. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-06-2012 16:24:04
If something this huge were to occur, you can bet on two of the Big Three being moved in trade packages before the deadline 2013 -- one probably this winter.

I put the odds on Greinke to Seattle at about 0.5%, however.

3. By: Jerry on 11-06-2012 16:55:14
I know that everyone is waiting for the M's to add bats, but having a rotation fronted by Felix and Greinke would be a huge advantage. With the depth we have in the organization, that's a damn good start to building a consistent contender. The M's could expect to win 40% of their games.

I don't get why people consider him anything less than an ace. His depression issues are way over blown, as he's been solid for the last 5 years. He is consistently great. Having two guys like that would be great.

There aren't any position players of the same caliber available, and we'd be signing him away from a division rival. Seems like a legit option.

4. By: Jazz00 on 11-06-2012 18:36:38
I'm getting to the point that you need to go for it and just sign one or two of the best talented free agents each year and continue on the path of building up your farm system. Then when you get your farm system built up then you can slow down on the free agent acquisitions. Go get Grienke.

5. By: aerichner on 11-06-2012 23:11:22
YES PLEASE...

if all we're giving up is $$$ then Im all for signing Greinke and using our minor leaguers (Hultzen etc) in trade to get 1 or 2 bats.

Felix/Greinke/Vargas/Iwakuma/Prospect sounds great. Trade Paxton NOW and then Hultzen during the year or the offseason. If Im betting on one of the 3 Im betting on Walker's upside.

6. By: Edman on 11-07-2012 09:03:33
I think Seattle might be an ideal place for Zack. He's not a big spot light kind of guy. If you could sign him, I'd be for trading one of the big three, Vargas, and another top prospect (not one of the big three) to get a talent like Alex Gordon. He's going to start getting expensive, and Kansas City desparately needs pitching.

I'm not proposing any specific deal, but there does appear to be a reasonable fit.

7. By: maqman on 11-07-2012 11:09:18
The Angels and Texicans need him more than we do and I wouldn't be surprised to see him get 7/$175MM. I prefer the grow your own plan with some astute free agent pick ups like Kuma. If they have that kind of money to toss around I'd rather see it go to Hamilton. Scott Feldman had 2.3 fWAR vs 5.1 for Greinke this past season and could be non-tendered. Somebody like him would be value for money.

8. By: rjfrik on 11-07-2012 11:13:48
I might sign Dan Haren over Zack. Haren we could probably get for 11 million a year and three years. I think he would be a real nice #2 behind Felix.

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