Prospect Insider - Offseason Target: Todd Frazier

Offseason Target: Todd Frazier

By Chris Crawford

By 11-05-2012

The Seattle Mariners' search for offense has extended into the offseason with several candidates, both from the shallow crop of available free agents and the trade market, serving as possibilities.

There are always reasons why deals are possible and why they won't happen. Some players fit, some don't. Among those that do, a few may fit better than others. The trade and financial costs are also major factors. Here, we'll dig into those factors, as well as analyze the potential impact of the player in question.

Here's who we covered thus far:

Shin-Soo Choo | Brett Lawrie | Nick Swisher | Grady Sizemore
Justin Morneau | Billy Butler | Edwin Jackson | Logan Morrison
Josh Willingham | Stephen Drew | Kyle Lohse | Carlos Gonzalez

On to Todd Frazier of the Cincinnati Reds.

What Todd Frazier brings
Frazier had a very good rookie season, finishing second among National League first-year players in OPS, home runs and slugging percentage. Coming up, Frazier didn't appear to have a swing that would produce much power, but thanks to a work ethic that gets rave reviews, he's transformed that swing into something workable as evidenced by his 45 extra-base hits in 465 plate appearances in 2012. Plate discipline isn't one of his strengths -- 43 walks in 486 career plate appearances -- but his pitch recognition is above-average, and he won't give away at-bats.

Last year, Frazier spent most his playing time at the hot corner -- thanks to injuries to Scott Rolen -- and while he won't remind anyone of Rolen in his prime, he wasn't Russ Davis, either. The former Rutgers star spent time at first and both corner outfield positions, and was passable at all of the above.

Frazier was far from a product of the friendly confines of his home park, too, having performed better on the road in a 235 plate appearances. It's a bit of a small sample size, but it's enough to suggest he's not likely to have problems moving out of Great American Ballpark.

The 26-year-old, however, may be best suited as a platoon bat versus left-handed pitching. He boasts a .309/.342/.537 mark versus southpaws with a .247/.315/.465 triple-slash versus left-handers. I'd say the jury is still out on his abilities as a full-time player.

Contract
In a word: cheap. Frazier won't be arbitration eligible until 2014 at the earliest, which means he may be more valuable to the Reds than his productions suggests.

Trade Cost
Because he was effective last year and still under club control for another four years minimum, there is no in inherent reason for the Reds to give Frazier away. The Reds biggest needs are arguably in center field and pitching, so perhaps a package deal involving Franklin Gutierrez and a young arm makes sense. Should the Reds decide to move Aroldis Chapman into the rotation, the bullpen would need to add an arm or two, something Seattle obviously to spare at the major and minor league levels.

Why would Seattle?
The Mariners haven't had a power bat with the ability to play multiple positions since, well, ever. The flexibility Frazier would bring could make for an interest set of lineup for skipper Eric Wedge. Frazier is a little bit better offensive option to platoon with Saunders in left field than, say, Casper Wells, and would allow the club to send Montero down to Tacoma to assimilate himself to first base.

Frazier's versatility, however, is key to his value.

With cost always a large part of the equation, the M's would have to be sure Frazier fits their future plans, as well as the ballpark.

Why would Cincinnati?
While the Reds don't have to move Frazier, he might be their best trade chip without parting with a core player or spending huge dollars to acquire an everyday centerfielder or starting pitcher. The Reds do have to replace Rolen at third base -- he's expected to retire and is a free agent -- Frazier is likely not a long-term solution at the position.

There are scouts who believe Frazier has already maxed out, too, despite the lack of more than a year's experience.

Conclusion
Frazier is a flawed player, but if the Mariners could acquire him at a reasonable price, he's the type of player from which many organizations could greatly benefit. The question is just how much Seattle would be willing to give up for a player with his limitations, and it's quite possible the Reds value Frazier more than the M's would.

It's a bit of a longshot, but this is the type of player Seattle should be looking to add for both the long and short-term benefits. He's just not a frontline bat, so he'd have to be a complementary acquisition.

offseason-target:-todd-frazier

Comments
The following 11 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: Tpatt253 on 11-05-2012 22:32:00
i def think he'd be an upgrade at 1b or RF... seems the trade/FA market is more fruitful in OF so id prefer he be 1b.... there might be better options to pursue, but not in our organization.

i feel like ms are just going to start with smoak and after the first 40 games of him sucking will finally give up and revisit replacing.

2. By: Rudolf on 11-05-2012 22:48:53
Tpatt,

What about Montero at 1B? How truely terrible would he have to be to not be an option there? We know he isn't the catcher longterm, unless Zunino suffers some tragic accident. Relegating Jesus to DH just seems pathetic. I think he's the Mariner first baseman if/when Smoak finally croaks.

As for Frazier... meh. If the price were right then fine, but you could say that about anybody.

3. By: Tpatt253 on 11-05-2012 23:40:50
im not counting montero a 1b yet, but could be.

i think jesus should be putting work in at 1b this winter and get reps there... especially if he becomes a top 3 hitter for us, he will be forced to play 1b some in IL, it could make the most sense.... and i think on a year to year basis, DH is much easier to acquire than 1b.

for dh/1b- montero/frazier>montero/smoak.

i think if we are going to make a bigger deal for help in the OF... Frazier could make a nice 1b/DH, 6/7 hole hitter now and in future.

4. By: Edman on 11-06-2012 10:15:13
Don't even see it as a reasonable possibility. He's cost controlled which makes him valuable.

5. By: sexymarinersfan on 11-06-2012 10:59:20
Agreed. When I think of the M's acquiring offense, this is not what I had in mind. Who knows what Z is thinking! Nobody does.

6. By: maqman on 11-06-2012 11:43:41
Jonny Gomes would be a better deal. He mashes lefties and won't be part of Oakland's future. He got $1MM last year for 2.1 fWAR. He'll cost more as a free agent but probably no prospects as he probably will be non-tendered.

7. By: sexymarinersfan on 11-06-2012 13:20:21
Hey everyone, it's ok now. We got Scott Cousins! We don't need Gomes or Wood now. ;)

8. By: iheartfelix on 11-06-2012 15:46:44
So basically we'd be giving up prospects for a slightly better version of Casper Wells? pass...

And isn't the appeal of "cost controlled players" that you are then able to spend more money elsewhere to improve the team? This starting 9 is full of cost controlled players already, and while I'm not advocating reckless spending, I wouldn't mind the purse strings loosening up a bit for someone that's a little more than a small upgrade over Casper Wells.

9. By: Madison Mariner on 11-06-2012 15:53:47
maqman at #6: Well, he *is* a free agent, not currently on the A's 40-man roster since he has more than 6 years of service time. So, there is no "non-tendering". He just costs money. ;)

10. By: Chris Crawford on 11-06-2012 16:00:08
8. Comparing the two players offensively is absolutely laughable. Wells is a much better outfielder, but to say that Frazier is better offensively -- and I don't know if you saw any games, but the Mariners struggled to score runs -- is akin to comparing Steve Sarkisian's success to Ty Willingham's.

11. By: iheartfelix on 11-06-2012 18:32:19
#10

one of the points in the post mentioned using Frazier as a platoon player. My point is that we have a right handed platoon outfielder, and would be better served finding a lefty to compliment Wells than we would upgrading him. If Frazier were murder on RHP's I would be all about it.

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