Prospect Insider - Offseason Target: Stephen Drew

Offseason Target: Stephen Drew

By Jason A. Churchill

By 11-02-2012

The Seattle Mariners' search for offense has extended into the off-season with several candidates, both from the shallow crop of available free agents as well as the trade market, serving as possibilities.

There are always reasons why deals are possible and why they won't happen. Some players fit, some don't. Among those that do, a few may fit better than others. The trade and financial costs are also major factors. Here, we'll dig into those factors, as well as analyze the potential impact of the player in question.

Here are the targets we've discussed thus far:

Shin-Soo Choo | Brett Lawrie
Nick Swisher | Grady Sizemore
Justin Morneau | Billy Butler
Edwin Jackson | Logan Morrison
Josh Willingham

It's time to discuss the idea of shortstop Stephen Drew.

What Stephen Drew brings
Drew, 30 in March, is an above-average bat and a plus offensive force relative to his position at shortstop. He's an above-average runner and has some pop to go along with a solid hit tool.

After struggling in Arizona fresh off the disabled list and being shipped to the A's, Drew produced at the plate.

Defensively Drew has gone from fringy to solid, but UZR did not like him much in limited time this past season. Perhaps that's just small sample size, but it could also be due to Drew's ankle injury potentially leaving him a step slow laterally.

Ultimately, a healthy Drew is an above-average shortstop, which is a truly valuable player on any club.

Contract
Drew had the $10 million option for 2013 declined by the A's, making him a free agent. The belief is that Oakland would like to bring back Drew at a reduced rate, but considering the dearth of good shortstops in baseball it's difficult to imagine Drew being forced to take a significant pay cut.

The player may shop his services to contenders only, so a club such as Seattle might have to be willing to go above and beyond in contract length and total dollars to lure him successfully, but it's worth mentioning that Seattle is likely to have a better ballpark for hitters than does Oakland, the Dodgers and the Giants, three clubs that could consider Drew this offseason.

That could become a significant factor if Drew looks for a one-year deal in order to improve his stock and prove he's healthy so he can get a bigger deal next offseason.

Why would Seattle?
Drew can hit and the M's need hitters, it's really that simple. While he's not a MOTO stick, Drew could provide fits as a productive bat in the No. 2, 6 or 7 slots.

If we assume the M's actually have interest in Drew and Drew's market gets to three-plus years and $10 million per, the M's might be out of the running, as they do not have unlimited resources and such an investment may not be prudent.

Signing Drew will not cost a draft pick -- while the A's have yet to indicate whether or not they will make Drew a qualifying offer, the rate of $13.3 million is more than Drew's option was worth -- so the M's wouldn't have to be concerned with such a sacrifice.

If Drew were signed to a deal longer than two years, Franklin likely becomes prime trade bait, if he's not already, if he hasn't yet been dealt by that stage in the winter.

Conclusion
Drew is likely to find a home on a team expected to compete for a playoffs spot, which would eliminate the M's from contention. If he's looking for a chance to reestablish his value, Safeco still isn't an ideal location, but a long-term option they could be if other clubs back off and Seattle shows they are willing.

The M's potential interest in Drew could depend on the organization's assessment of Brendan Ryan, who is arbitration eligible, and prospect Nick Franklin. If they believe Ryan is going to sign without holding out for big dollars and that Franklin is their future at shortstop, Drew probably doesn't make any sense at all.

If one or the other is not necessarily the belief, Drew could very well be on the table. My own belief is that Drew will only become an option if he's still available late in the winter and the Mariners have struck out on some other possibilities.

offseason-target:-stephen-drew

Comments
The following 9 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: sexymarinersfan on 11-02-2012 20:57:04
M's just re-signed Kuma!! 2 years with a third year option. Great job Z!

2. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-02-2012 21:00:22
What if it's for $13 million per year? Still think it would be great?

3. By: roosevelt on 11-02-2012 21:43:50
Anything exceeding $5-6 per year would be bothersome. Watching his stuff last year, one does not see a wow factor. Yet, he still had success. Go figure.

4. By: sexymarinersfan on 11-02-2012 21:49:34
You wanna make a wager Jason? Lol. If its $13 million, or more I'll eat my hat! If I had to guess I'd say it was for 2-years at $16 million. I guess we'll have to wait and find out.

5. By: sexymarinersfan on 11-02-2012 21:58:57
I just found this from Jon Heyman. I was close!

John Heyman of CBS Sports.com reports the deal as worth two years, $14 million, with Iwakuma getting $6.5 million in each of 2013 and 2014, then a $1 million buyout on a $7 million option for 2015.

6. By: eknpdx on 11-02-2012 22:58:48
Jason,

In relation to this topic about Drew, who has the higher ceiling as a 2B between Ackley and Franklin?

7. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-02-2012 23:38:01
Sexymarinersfan,

I was just making a point. Until you know the details, you can't just assume it's a good deal. 2/16 wouldn't have been bad, but it's not a GREAT deal. 3/21 with the third year not guaranteed, that's just shy of great, but still very good, IMO.

8. By: sexymarinersfan on 11-03-2012 01:01:21
I see where your coming from. I probably would've been outraged had they signed him at $13 mil per. I would've lost a lot of faith in our negotiation skills I'll tell you that much.

9. By: maqman on 11-03-2012 12:14:53
With the best defensive player in the game holding the slot at SS for Franklin or Harris I don't see SS as a priority pick up myself. I'd prefer an OF or 3B-1B bat(s) like Youklis, not that he would come to Seattle unless we spent clown cash.

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