| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 10-26-2012 |
The Seattle Mariners' search for offense has extended into the offseason with several candidates, both from the shallow crop of available free agents and the trade market, serving as possibilities.There are always reason why deal are possible and why they won't happen. Some players fit, some don't. Among those that do, a few may fit better than others. The trade and financial costs are also major factors. Here, we'll dig into those factors, as well as analyze the potential impact of the player in question.
What the player brings
Shin-soo Choo is a fringe five-tool talent with above-average speed, a plus arm, good plate skills that allow him to hit for some average, and above-average power. He's a solid defender in right field and has produced in the leadoff spot as well as in the middle of the batting order.
He's among the more skilled hitters in baseball and possesses an even mix of on-base skills and pop, making him a versatile bat that fits in any lineup in baseball.
Choo, who turned 30 in July, has been a tad injury prone, playing in just 94 games in 2008 and missing significant time due to injury in 2011, too. He's a former Tommy John surgery recipient and appears to have recovered fully.
The six-year big leaguer amassed career highs in home runs, slugging percentage, batting average and on-base percentage in 2009 and 2010 will start the 2013 season with a .288/.381/.466 career triple-slash. His performance has dipped some the past two campaigns -- .259/.344/.390 in 85 games in 2011 -- and batted .278/.371/.440 with 15 home runs in 140 games this past season. He's likely entering the final 1-3 years of prime production, however, and he's probably not quite equipped to anchor a lineup.
Contract
Choo is arbitration eligible one final time this winter after earning $4.9 million in 2012. The Cleveland Indians would love to discuss an extension with him, but he's a Scott Boras client and considering the Tribe's financial situation -- their revenues sit in the bottom third of the league and their owner has long been known to be unwilling to splurge on payroll.
Choo is likely to be awarded a one-year deal, via the arbitration process or by way of an agreement with the team to avoid arbitration, north of $7 million and perhaps as much as $9 million. Even $9 million is a bargain for a borderline all-star with no significant holes in his game.
Trade Cost
The Indians have a lot of areas in which they'd certainly like to fill if they entertain offers for Choo over the offseason -- which is something they are expected to do. There were reports in July that the club had discussed Choo with more than one team before the deadline, suggesting the idea of an extension is indeed a long shot, and the Indians know it.
Still, GM Chris Antonetti isn't going to trade Choo this offseason unless he gets the offer he wants, and that will likely include some young, big-league pitching, or some pitching that figures to be ready to jump into the mix during the 2013 season.
The Indians also have holes in the outfield and at first base. For the Mariners, this could mean that arms such as Danny Hultzen, Taijuan Walker and James Paxton will be requested, and perhaps Erasmo Ramirez and Brandon Maurer, too. The M's relief depth may interest the Indians, as well, especially if they trade Chris Perez, who is also getting pricey. Perez could also be on his way out due to his big mouth.
Perhaps Carter Capps or Stephen Pryor could be involved, but Tyler Burgoon, Carson Smith and Logan Bawcom could also be attractive pieces in a package deal.
Why would Cleveland?
If the Indians do not trade Choo, either this winter or before the July 31 trade deadline, they'll get nothing but a draft pick when he leaves via free agency. It's in Antonetti's best interest to move Choo now to maximize the return.
The team isn't likely to contend in '13 and the more young pieces they can add the better chance they have for 2014 and beyond. Payroll is also a factor here, as Choo's 2013 salary could be used to keep other players -- or extend other key cogs -- and fill other areas of need.
Why would Seattle?
Choo would fill a sore need for Seattle, both at the plate and in the field. Considering his contract scenario, however, it's not likely the Mariners offer one of the Big Three. Pre-trade contract extensions are not part of the equation anymore, so don't look for that to be a possibility. The M's would be trading for one year of Choo, plus the potential draft pick compensation should he leave via free agency.
Because of the contract, Choo isn't the perfect target, but as a player and what he brings to a team, he's as ideal as it comes.
Conclusion
It's doubtful the Mariners are in hard on Choo, as contenders such as the San Francisco Giants, Philadelphia Phillies, Cincinnati Reds and New York Yankees, are likely to be more willing to part with key young talents for one year of an impact player, since they are set up to win right away, and the lack of quality free agent outfielder and bats will direct many clubs to Cleveland to inquire about Choo.
Despite the Mariners' desperate need for offense, sacrificing frontline talent for a short-term fix is not wise.
offseason-target:-shin-soo-choo
Comments
The following 6 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: docsmith on 10-26-2012 17:37:14 Thanks for the analysis. It makes a lot of sense. Choo would be a great addition, if we could get him, but it is very likely that teams that are in "win now" mode will pay more than the Mariners should. But, we gave him to the Indians for next to nothing...maybe they would return the favor ;)....didn't think so.... |
| 2. By: Ungnome on 10-26-2012 21:25:21 Justin Morneau is my new flavor of the month. Maybe Jason Kubel too if the D-Backs are willing to deal him, though the line-up starts getting extremely lefty heavy with both. While Choo would be wonderful, I am with you that he would likely be cost prohibitive to acquire and bidding wars are never fun for the buyer. However, the M's will have to do something with all these useful pieces piling up in the upper minors. It's not like having options is a bad thing though. I like these write-ups. Keem'em coming. |
| 3. By: maqman on 10-27-2012 11:06:45 You ticked all the right boxes Jason. I fully agree it would be a folly to trade much of value for a one year rental that would take millions off our payroll in what is most likely a non-contending season. Unless he implodes or spends a lot of time on the DL Boras will squeeze many millions out of a contending team in a hitters park after next season. Not that he isn't valuable, he is. Too much so for us. I'm going to be interested in how you evaluate Swisher and the Upton brothers, if you do. I think the new media income is going to drive up free agent prices, it's already started. A true MOTO is going to be very expensive and would need somebody like Choo behind him in the order. Hopefully one of Smoak, Montero, Saunders, Carp etc. will turn into one. Z has got a real challenge to make this off season productive. |
| 4. By: qwerty on 10-27-2012 14:15:00 I like to talk trade scenarios more than most, but I believe this is the time for M's to infill with FA's. If we can trade relief depth,perhaps, but I want to see some FA bats. |
| 5. By: aerichner on 10-27-2012 19:55:39 qwerty, I understand but...there's isnt much availabe in Free Agency, dont you agree? Other than Hamilton and maybe Swisher (I do like him), I dont see a ton out there that will take the lineup to the next level. I do like an Angel Pagan type but I wouldnt mind if we traded for someone better than that. Who do you suggest? |
| 6. By: bavasisabum on 10-29-2012 15:22:46 Wasn't he supposed to be headed back to Korea at some point to do his military service time or something? |
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