Prospect Insider - Offseason Target: Nick Swisher

Offseason Target: Nick Swisher

By Chris Crawford

By 10-29-2012

The Seattle Mariners' search for offense has extended into the offseason with several candidates, both from the shallow crop of available free agents and the trade market, serving as possibilities.

There are always reasons why deals are possible and why they won't happen. Some players fit, some don't. Among those that do, a few may fit better than others. The trade and financial costs are also major factors. Here, we'll dig into those factors, as well as analyze the potential impact of the player in question.

We've already tackled a few of the possibilities:

Offseason Target: Shin-Soo Choo
Offseason Target: Brett Lawrie

Now, Nick Swisher.

What Nick Swisher brings
Swisher has been among the more consistent offensive players over the past eight seasons, outside of one less than successful campaign with the White Sox. Few players have a better eye than the switch-hitter, with above-average power to all fields and non-extreme splits from both sides of the field. While not a superb outfielder, Swisher does hold his own, and does have the ability to play first base as well, which is something that increases his value to a clubs such as Seattle.

The former Ohio State Buckeye has been particularly good -- if unsung -- in New York, hitting .268/.367/.450 in his time there, with an average of 80 walks per season. The power numbers have been better hitting from the left side, but the on-base numbers have gone up from the right, creating a somewhat even trade-off for the switch-hitter. And while there's no denying that New York has been somewhat of a hitter's paradise (ignoring this year's playoffs for the home team), Swisher's OPS was actually higher on the road two of the past three years, so there's no real concern about the home park advantage having driven his numbers.

Contract
Swisher is a free-agent and earned $9 million in 2011 and $10.25 million this past season. That, combined with the shallow crop of hitters in the free agent class, suggests he could warrant a new contract worth somewhere north of $12 million per season -- maybe as high as $15 million per - and for as long as six years.

Why would Seattle?
Simply put, Swisher would become one of -- if not the -- best hitters on the roster. His OBP and slugging would have lead the club -- outside of John Jaso -- by a long shot, and his outfield defense is good enough to make him a great acquisition for Seattle.

His defensive versatility could become key, and his experience with winning clubs may be just as important. He's also a fit for many spots in the lineup from leadoff to No. 6 and everywhere in between. His struggles in the postseason can't be ignored entirely, but they don't tell the whole story of Swisher's value and shouldn't dictate any club's level of interest.

Conclusion
Expect the Mariners to be mentioned in the talks for Nick Swisher, though it's questionable as to whether Swisher would strongly consider them. The issue is money. With a dearth of options, it's not completely out of the question that Swisher could see nine figures on his contract, and that might make Seattle blush. But if the M's can work out a deal they can live with long term, this could be a significant addition that helps the club compete for a playoff spot as early as next season.

When the smoke clears, Swisher is likely to sign with a contending club willing to go more than four years and beyond $70 million. At 32, that may not be the kind of transaction that works with what the M's are trying to do. There is the thought that the club may have to overspend to get hitters, but with the team showing steady improvement and with the organization deciding to alter the dimensions at Safeco Field, they may not need to spend with desperation.

offseason-target:-nick-swisher

Comments
The following 12 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: ripperlv on 10-29-2012 05:04:38
Mr. Lunchbox, this guy is consistently good, not great, but very valuable. This is kinda the hitter I envisioned when the M's aquired Smoak. I would certainly welcome him to the M's. Is he worth the over paying? I'm on the fense. Can't stand to see another worn out veteran eating up a roster spot.

2. By: Edman on 10-29-2012 09:27:43
So far, we've had three discussions about three guy who have a less than 10% chance of being a Seattle Mariner. I suppose it helps to defuse the hysteria when people throw names that have no real chance of being a Mariner, but for me personally, it's hard to discuss things that are highly remote.

3. By: Edman on 10-29-2012 09:27:55
So far, we've had three discussions about three guy who have a less than 10% chance of being a Seattle Mariner. I suppose it helps to defuse the hysteria when people throw names that have no real chance of being a Mariner, but for me personally, it's hard to discuss things that are highly remote.

4. By: dewey on 10-29-2012 09:35:08
Congrats to the Giants is anyone thinking the N.L. has become the better league 4 out of last 5 W.S. champs and 3-4 allstar games won in a row.It seems like every October we find out how important good defense and Pitching is because thos teams allways seem to win the series .

5. By: jgstecker on 10-29-2012 11:26:44
We need to wait and see if Swisher gets a Qualifying Offer from the Yankees or not. It seems pretty likely they will give him that tag.

That would mean Seattle would lose their #12 overall pick to sign him this offseason. That tips the scales for me.

6. By: k0o56 on 10-29-2012 11:38:21
#5 Please correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't the top 15 picks protected?

7. By: maqman on 10-29-2012 12:19:42
I see Swisher as overpriced for his value. His fWAR of 3.9 is the same as the Twin's Denard Span and Josh Willingham. The Twins need arms and they can spare an OF. Both come with two years of control for $6-$7MM a season; Willingham is a year older than Swisher, Span is 4 years younger. They represent production, control and value. Additionally, with all the new money in the game you can expect free agent's sticker prices to go up. The M's can afford a higher payroll but they probably can't get and shouldn't want Swisher.

8. By: Edman on 10-29-2012 12:23:17
#6, that's no longer true. If I remember correctly, protection is only given to the first ten pick. I'm not sure how Pittsburg's compensation pick works into that, for not signing Bauer.

9. By: sexymarinersfan on 10-29-2012 12:59:12
It's only the first 10. Pittsburgh failed to sign they're 8th pick in Appel last year and were awarded the 9th this year, so I thought it might've been 11, since they got that sandwich selection, but no, it's still just the first 10.

10. By: rjfrik on 10-29-2012 13:34:58
I will be pissed if we throw away our draft pick for Swisher or any other FA this year. This will be the last year, IMO, for awhile that we have a draft pick this high. The M's are on the rise and we need one more top 15 pick.

We threw the 17th away two years ago for Figgins. Hope we don't do that again.

11. By: Edman on 10-29-2012 14:31:49
Appel, not Bauer.

Personally, I hope Appel gets taken in the bottom 15 of next year's draft......one can only hope.

12. By: Timberwolf on 10-29-2012 17:39:08
Swisher is a great option for a team that is one brick short of a load. He is not a great player, he is not a young player, he is a very smart and very well rounded quality player. Giving a multi-year eight figure deal and forfeiting a first round pick seems pretty steep.

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