Prospect Insider - Offseason Target: Kyle Lohse

Offseason Target: Kyle Lohse

By Alex Carson

By 11-03-2012

The Seattle Mariners' search for offense has extended into the offseason with several candidates, both from the shallow crop of available free agents and the trade market, serving as possibilities.

There are always reasons why deals are possible and why they won't happen. Some players fit, some don't. Among those that do, a few may fit better than others. The trade and financial costs are also major factors. Here, we'll dig into those factors, as well as analyze the potential impact of the player in question.

Shin-Soo Choo | Brett Lawrie
Nick Swisher | Grady Sizemore
Justin Morneau | Billy Butler
Edwin Jackson | Logan Morrison
Josh Willingham | Stephen Drew

Adam H. Wong discussed a pitcher last week, today we'll examine Kyle Lohse.

What Kyle Lohse brings
Lohse has strung together two solid years for the St. Louis Cardinals, including a 2012 campaign that was the best of his career.

Lohse, who turned 34 in October, had career bests in both wins and losses (16-3), ERA (2.86), BB/9 (1.62) and WAR (3.6). He could have also benefited from career bests in advanced statistics that indicated some luck, but there's no doubt that he performed extremely well on the mound and even at his age should have a few more strong seasons remaining, which entails 200 innings.

Lohse gets a decent rate of ground ball outs, too, which is more valuable at 2013 Safeco than are fly ball pitchers.

Contract
Coming off a career year and approaching his mid-30's, Lohse has one final shot at a lucrative multi-year deal. With this likely being the final chance for Lohse to get a multi-year deal, he'll be looking for something in the 3-4 year range with a dollar figure approaching, perhaps exceeding, $40 million.

Will he get that kind of money? I don't know, but he's certainly not signing for one year, even if it comes with a bigger dollar figure attached. Lohse is going to hold out for longer term financial security.

As it turns out, someone else could benefit from this well timed performance: The Cardinals.

With baseball's Type A and Type B free-agent arbitration compensation system out the window, the Cardinals need only make a qualifying offer to Lohse in order to score a compensatory pick in the upcoming MLB draft. That offer would total only $13.3 million. There's little chance Lohse takes that deal, so the Cards are sure to score that pick.

Why would Seattle?
The Mariners have holes in their rotation. After Felix and Hisashi Iwakuma, you've got some question marks, and even the Japanese import is short of a sure thing. We’ll have to see how the new ballpark alignment impacts Jason Vargas' value, and if Erasmo Ramirez is ready to contribute on a consistent basis.

If multiple of those three questions result in unfavorable answers for the front office, making a move for a starter becomes somewhat of a priority, and a multi-year idea may be in the offing if they plan on moving one of their top three pitching prospects to acquire a bat.

While the club has the Danny Hultzen, James Paxton and Taijuan Walker trio waiting in the wings, all three pitchers have substantial strides to make in the minors before getting their first crack at the show. Not to mention the highly unlikely outcome that two or more of them are ready to contribute at an impact level before 2014.

Conclusion
On one hand, you'd have the club giving up a draft pick for a starter approaching his mid-30's and coming off a career year. On the other, you have a rotation that may be in need of depth and reliability while the future arms work out their kinks in the minors.

For me, the Mariners making this signing would depend on how the rest of their off-season goes -- and the cost, of course. If they're able to acquire a couple of hitters in the earlier stages of the off-season, then this move would make more sense. Of course, it probably would mean Vargas will not be back in 2013.

Losing draft picks is never a goal, especially for a club that needs more talent, not less. However, if other pieces fall into place for the Mariners, a three-year deal for Lohse might not be a bad investment to strengthen their rotation, allowing the club to ensure their youngsters are ready before being called upon, and replacing Vargas with a pitcher that has a better chance at league-average production, even if it's at a 25 percent hike in salary.

offseason-target:-kyle-lohse

Comments
The following 12 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: Jerry on 11-03-2012 22:23:31
No thanks. Lohse is my bet for worst contract of the offseason.

2. By: acqb1424 on 11-04-2012 07:14:58
Definitely off topic here, but what about trading for Asdrubal Cabrera? The Indians just picked up Aviles and there has been some chatter he might be available. I know that Brendan Ryan is a great defensive shortstop, but Cabrera would be a boost for the offense. Any chance we have an article coming up about him?

3. By: jgstecker on 11-04-2012 07:24:05
If nothing else, Bill Bavasi is on board with a Lohse deal. Just ask Carlos Silva, Jarrod Washburn, and Miguel Batista.

Only I don't think even Bavasi would cough up a #12 overall pick to do it.

4. By: Edman on 11-04-2012 07:42:15
I'd rather give Vargas arby money, than ever consider Lohse. So far, through this series of posts, the only two I even consider possible are Sizemore and Morneau, and they are still remote.

5. By: Shawnuel on 11-04-2012 07:49:56
#1, #3 and #4. Agreed. BIG no thanks!I think I agree with Edman on the two that have some interest for me although I might add Choo or Morrison if the return wasn't too much.....which is highly unlikely.

6. By: sexymarinersfan on 11-04-2012 09:27:21
Don't take this the wrong way Alex because I know how much time and effort you and the rest of the Prospect Insider team put into this site, but signing Kyle Lohse and losing the 12th pick in the draft would be foolish when you already have 4 top quality prospects waiting in the wings and you're team is hurting for offense and on somewhat of a budget. However I do realize you guys are trying cover all the possibilities out there and do a damned good job of it! But Lohse? PASS!!!

7. By: Timberwolf on 11-04-2012 09:55:23
Just say NO. Giving up draft picks when we finally have people who know how to use them is the wrong thing to do 9 out of 10 times. When you factor in age and position it is like 999 out of 1000.

8. By: Jerry on 11-04-2012 10:05:20
So many better alternatives.

Want a solid, mid-rotation guy? Anibal Sanchez.

Want a ground ball pitcher? Brabdon McCarthy.

Want a veteran workhorse? Edwin Jackson.

Lohse is way overvalued. I'm always skeptical about cardinals pitchers, because that team always seems to get above average performances from mediocre guys. The Silva comps make sense except Lohse is older. Perfect storm of no thank you.

If the M's are going to add starting pitching, I hope they either go expensive or bargain.

Zach Greinke and Dan Haren both make a lot of sense. Haren is coming off a poor year, but has a great record of durability and success before. He is the prototype #2 starter. And Greinke is one of the more underrated elite players in baseball. Due to the BS about his emotional issues, he is likely to be underpaid. Slotting either of those guys behind Felix makes the rotation much better. And neither will cost a high draft pick.

On the other end, I'd bring in 1-2 reclamation projects. Luke Hochevar, Mike Pelfrey, or Francisco Liriano would be good moves. One guy I would go after in trades is Rick Porcello. He is exactly the type of guy who could thrive with the M's.

Lots of better options.

9. By: maqman on 11-04-2012 10:44:08
I'm not sold on our needing to sign any high cost free agent arm unless we trade Vargas or two of the Big 4. All of our free agent shopping should be at the bat department. Picking up a 2013 Millwood would be okay. With the signing of Perez we also could possibly re-program him, The Bartender or Furbush as a starter. We have plenty of bullpen arms and I'm betting Z will build a nice pile of bullpen prospects with minor league contract signings with a spring training invite. He's a master at that.

Whatever, just say no to Lohse, that's a clown contract bro.

10. By: Alex Carson on 11-04-2012 13:50:45
@sexymarinersfan (and others) - Remember, we are mostly just presenting the options out there. Not necisarily advocating them.

I think Lohse could be a decent fit at the right price **IF** the club makes other more important signings first. If it's Lohse over a bat, heck no. Will they have the budget to do all of that? Perhaps not.

And never ever ever ever hesitate to kick feedback about anything we post. I believe I speak on behalf of the entire PI staff when I say we are kicking out ideas and options and always welcome the feedback of the community. I am by no means an elitist.

11. By: Rudolf on 11-04-2012 16:50:05
Lohse has teased and burned teams for over a decade. He might be worth an 8 Million per contract-- like Pineiro two years ago-- but when you factor in the lost draft pick, the league switch, career year expectations, the volatility of his career, the Dave Duncan factor- even Kent Bottenfield was worth 2.2 wins in St. Louis-- Lohse on a 3/30 contract (or more!) is a joke. If he didn't cost a draft pick and was available at 2/16 then he would be a satisfactory bridge to Hultzen and co.

Maybe he's a late bloomer. Let's not find out in Seattle.

12. By: VikingArthur on 11-05-2012 12:08:37
Signing Lohse would be a major mistake.

1. He'd be back in the AL where mediocre pitchers go to die.

2. He'd be away from the Cardinal miracle workers.

3. Giving away a 12th pick in the draft to pick up rotation fodder is silly.

There is no way he'll only get 2 years... pick Millwood back up if you want an average pitcher. He'll cost us less and be roughly similar. Lohse would simply be a bad signing. No go.

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