Prospect Insider - Offseason Target: Josh Willingham

Offseason Target: Josh Willingham

By Adam H. Wong

By 11-01-2012

The Seattle Mariners' search for offense has extended into the off-season with several candidates, both from the shallow crop of available free agents as well as the trade market, serving as possibilities.

There are always reasons why deals are possible and why they won't happen. Some players fit, some don't. Among those that do, a few may fit better than others. The trade and financial costs are also major factors. Here, we'll dig into those factors, as well as analyze the potential impact of the player in question.

Here are the targets we've discussed thus far:

Shin-Soo Choo
Brett Lawrie
Nick Swisher
Grady Sizemore
Justin Morneau
Billy Butler
Edwin Jackson
Logan Morrison

Time to talk Josh Willingham.

What Josh Willingham brings
Josh Willingham had a career year in 2012 and while he'll always be a power-first type of hitter, those types of players will always have holes in their game. With the league having batted .255/.319/.405 in 2012, Willingham's .260/.366/.524 triple-slash is quite impressive. He might not hit for a high average, but the right-handed slugger will take his fair share of walks -- his 12.4 percent walk rate ranked No. 12 in baseball this past season, ahead of Prince Fielder and David Wright.

Defensively he aspires to be fringy in a corner outfield spot and probably belongs as a DH. He's played first base all of four innings in his career after coming up as a catcher, but might be passable there if it's the best fit.

Contract
Willingham is owed $14 million guaranteed over the next two years, which is a bargain and a half if he's going to approach the numbers he put up in his first year with the Twins. Any club calling Minnesota to discuss Willingham will have to assume they'll pay for a cost-effective middle-of-the-order bat, not just a bat.

Trade Cost
If the right-handed slugger is going to cost the Mariners one of their premiere pitching prospects, GM Jack Zdurriencik should probably move on, considering the lack of value outside the batter's box.

The Twins need pitching, however, and the Mariners have that. Right-handers Brandon Maurer and Erasmo Ramirez probably won't be enough to entice Twins GM Terry Ryan, but perhaps adding Nick Franklin or Brad Miller, plus a young bullpen arm, might do the trick.

Why would Seattle?
Seattle is in desperate need of power, and with the fences being moved in this winter, Safeco Field hopes to be a bit more neutral than seasons past. Willingham could slide right into the middle of the order and offer some veteran protection to the youngsters. Seattle showed a great deal more power this year than in previous seasons, and adding a veteran like Willingham makes the lineup undeniably better.
Suggesting Willingham would be of great help to the Mariners is an understatement, but the cost still has to fit the club's plan over the next 2-3 years.

Why would Minnesota?
Minnesota desperatelys need pitching and Willingham may be the perfect bait to land such a package. With an outfield consisting of Denard Span and Ben Revere, and prospects Aaron Hicks an Oswaldo Arcia on the way, there isn't room long-term for Willingham on the roster much beyond the first half of 2013, especially when Joe Mauer will be splitting time at designated hitter when he's not catching, and with the presence of Ryan Doumit, who is also a DH/OF like Willingham.

If the Twins were to shop Willingham this winter they would be doing so at the player's highest possible value. He's only going to get older and expecting a repeat season is asking too much. The Twins are not going to content in 2013 and the sooner they acquire the pitching that can help them get back to being competitive the better.

Conclusion
Considering the Twins' apparent plan and their team needs, trading Willingham now makes a lot of sense, but it's certainly not going to be cheap for a club to acquire him. The Mariners will have to part with one of the Big Three to get the kind of bat they need to add, but Willingham probably isn't the right player to sacrifice such young talent.

If Willingham can be had without including any of the premium arms, the two clubs could hook up this offseason. It's worth noting that the Mariners showed interest in Willingham as a free agent last winter.

Adam H. Wong can be reached via email at wong@prospectinsider.com. Follow him on Twitter here.

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Comments
The following 12 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: roosevelt on 11-01-2012 21:34:25
So sad. The M's could have signed him last winter as a free agent. Many of us thought that would have been a superb move. Alas, the M's decided to save money by not spending it. Could you imagine.... Willingham was signed by the Twins at salary well below Chone Figgins. Just shoot me!

2. By: sexymarinersfan on 11-01-2012 21:47:46
Yeah, but hindsight is 20/20. No one knew or else we might've won that bidding war. I don't like the idea of giving up our top talent for a 32 yr. old player whose at his peak value. This team does need offensive power, but the Twins are surely looking for front line pitching. There's no need to trade away our young pieces until we actually know that we can contend or it's for other young cost controlled talent such as Pineda for Montero.

This teams motto right now should be keep building the core!

3. By: Rudolf on 11-01-2012 21:58:03
I agree w/ Sexy.

Trading Franklin/Miller and Maurer + a bullpen arm for Willingham makes me sick. In a year both of those guys could be putting up more WAR than Josh. If only one of them pans out-- which should be soon, they're in AAA-- it's a loser deal.

4. By: aerichner on 11-01-2012 23:00:46
I for one am not dying over the fact that we "missed out" on Willingham.

So we signed Figgins and he didn't work out, Twins signed Willingham and he worked out therefore Twins management > Mariners management *sarcasmfont*

Willingham was great last year ...he was so awesome that he helped turn the Twins into...the worst team in the AL. Would he have had the same year in Seattle? Who knows. Would we have been in the playoffs? Doubt it...but again, who knows.

Unless we're trading C (grade, not position) prospects for Willingham, I'd rather see the team trade for a cost controlled bat and then unload $$ on a legit SP, a "reclamation" SP, and another bat. Can't count on Walker/Hultzen/Paxton/Maurer yet so adding SP now behind/between Felix and hopefully Iwakuma is a must (I'd trade or non-tender Vargas). Signing SPs now will not block our youngsters because they're not ready but if need be, the SP we sign can always be dealt mid season or the year after to make room.

5. By: maqman on 11-02-2012 11:57:35
Willingham has become a fan favorite for the Twins, which might make him even more expensive. Span is four years younger and put up the same fWAR as Willingham (and Swisher).

I'd sign Vargas and if possible Iwakuma (we'll know if they can do that by Sunday, if not they can't sign him until mid-May). If and when the prime pitching prospects reach the big club they won't have a problem trading Vargas later.

6. By: Jerry on 11-02-2012 12:49:48
The Royals just DFA'd Jeremy Jeffress. Jack drafted hIm, and he is the type of player you take a shot on. I'd be surprised if the M's didn't try to claim him.

7. By: foreverrebuilding on 11-02-2012 14:29:42
What about Franklin + one of the Big Three + a lower-grade prospect for Carlos Gonzalez? Franklin's power would fit nicely for a 2b in Colorado, and paired with Tulo would make for a formidable MI.

8. By: sexymarinersfan on 11-02-2012 16:46:16
Or how bout we sign a FA OF, then develop one of the Big Three, turn him into a legit front line pitcher, buy out his arbitration years and have him be part of the core for the future.

9. By: qwerty on 11-02-2012 17:10:31
I'm w/ Sexy. FA's for OF's, C, MI, SP.

10. By: Jerry on 11-02-2012 17:18:31
I agree with sexy,

The M's don't need to be trading away all their talent.

The more I read about this upcoming offseason - with so many teams flush with money and apparently ready to go on a spending spree - the more I think that the M's might want to be smart.

Obviously, Jack needs to shake all the branches and inquire about any players who could help, but this free agent class isn't that inspiring. Spending money just to spend money isn't smart. If players like Hamilton, Greinke, Swisher, etc are getting stupid money, let some other team write that check.

Guys that could make sense if the market goes nuts: Melky Cabrera, Francisco Liriano, Ryan Madson, Brandon McCarthy, and Jonothan Broxton.

Supplement that with some risk/reward and change-of-scenery guys: Grady Sizemore, Luke Hochevar, Daric Barton, Dominic Brown, Jeremy Jeffress, Brennan Boesch, and Mike Pelfrey.

Add in a smart trade or two - perhaps something under the radar like the Jaso pickup - and the M's could have a nice offseason without doing anything stupid, like giving big money to mediocre guys, giving up draft picks, or pulling a "ChooGuillenCabrera" (giving up too early on a talented young player).

11. By: Jerry on 11-02-2012 17:18:54
One other name: Japanese SS Hiroyuki Nakajima. He sounds like a much better version of our favorite cheerleader. The M's need a utility infielder, and the scouting reports describe Nakajima as a guy who could probably emerge as a starter eventually. Wouldn't hurt to add some depth in the middle infield.

12. By: zrininger on 11-02-2012 18:17:41
Anybody have any thoughts on the M's picking up Roberto Hernandez now that Cleveland has declined his option? Seems like a good bounce back candidate.

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