| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 11-07-2012 |
The Seattle Mariners' search for offense has extended into the offseason with several candidates, both from the shallow crop of available free agents and the trade market, serving as possibilities. There are always reasons why deals are possible and why they won't happen. Some players fit, some don't. Among those that do, a few may fit better than others. The trade and financial costs are also major factors. Here, we'll dig into those factors, as well as analyze the potential impact of the player in question.
Previously published reports:
Shin-Soo Choo | Brett Lawrie | Nick Swisher | Grady Sizemore
Justin Morneau | Billy Butler | Edwin Jackson | Logan Morrison
Josh Willingham | Stephen Drew | Kyle Lohse | Carlos Gonzalez
Todd Frazier | Zack Greinke | Allen Craig | Chase Headley
Alex Gordon
In light of a national report Wednesday night by CBSSports.com's Jon Heyman that the Mariners may be among the clubs that show interest in Josh Hamilton, let's discuss the idea.
What Josh Hamilton brings
Hamilton is a very good hitter with big power and the ability to hit for enough average to warrant MVP-caliber projections, even going forward from age 31. He struggled at times last summer in terms of contact, often chasing breaking balls out of the strike zone and compiling a strikeout rate of 25.5 percent, almost six percent higher than his career rates and nearly nine percent higher than during his MVP season in 2010.
Even older batters, however, have historically shown they can improve strikeout rates enough to stave off major dips in non-luck related performance, including Josh Willingham this past year and Adam LaRoche in 2011.
There is concern, at least for me, that Hamilton has hit a wall, so to speak. Sure, he's 31 now, but he's been through a lot and in baseball years might be more like 35, suggesting his second half plunge could be a sign of significant decline.
He hasn't been greatly vulnerable versus left-handed pitching, but as his bat slows down this could be problematic, but there is the issue of his road splits. They're far from awful but outside Arlington Hamilton has not been a superstar by any stretch. He did even out the numbers in 2012, however, but it's something to factor into his value at Safeco Field, which, despite the fences being moved in this winter, still will not be a hitter-friendly environment, particularly during the schedule's first three months.
He's a good defensive player and a 55 runner, but his body has been battered as he's aged and injured and he appears to have lost a step. He may need to serve as the designated hitter 30-40 times per year to help keep him off the disabled list and playing in a corner regularly should help a bit, too.
For 2013, and perhaps beyond, Hamilton is a legit middle-of-the-order bat who isn't likely to struggle to hit 35 home runs as long as he can stay off the disabled list.
Contract
Hamilton just came off a two-year, $24 million deal with the Texas Rangers and is likely to warrant a contract of at least four years guaranteed at $20 million or more per season. Last winter we saw two risky star bats -- Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder -- sign for more than $200 million dollars -- Fielder for nine years and Pujols for 10.
Hamilton could get as many as eight years guaranteed if similar circumstances repeat this offseason, which is to say at least one club is willing to make such an investment despite the inherent risk attached and at least one other club can be used to drive up the price.
The smart contract on Hamilton is fewer than five years guaranteed but vesting options, based on plate appearances, which could stretch it another few years. In reality, that one team -- Orioles? Red Sox? Yankees? -- are likely to go well beyond that when all is said and done.
Why would Seattle?
The Mariners are sorely in need of offense and they also need a star player in the lineup everyday that draws attention, people to the ballpark and drives revenues, and Hamilton could be that kind of addition.
Furthermore, other free agents, pitchers and hitters alike, could begin to see Seattle as a more viable option if a player such as Hamilton were to hop aboard. Hamilton's true value to the Mariners may go beyond what he may do on the field, suggesting an overpay might be well worth it.
Conclusion
Hamilton will turn 32 in May and due to age, chance for decline and injury history -- ignoring off-the-field problems -- Hamilton is likely to be a pretty darned good player for a few more years. How much longer that remains, is the key component here, considering the probable cost in total guaranteed dollars.
It's difficult to imagine the Mariners viewing Hamilton as any kind of wise investment beyond five guaranteed years, especially considering the annual average salary starts at $20 million and could reach past $25 million per.
Heyman's report stated "The Mariners look like a possible new entry in the Josh Hamilton sweepstakes, people familiar with their thinking suggest," so it's not like they have shown interest in Hamilton and Heyman was confirming. I can tell you, however, that the Mariners have payroll to spend -- more than some may believe -- and if they could get Hamilton on an incentive-laden deal after four guaranteed years, there could be something to this.
The biggest obstacle, in my opinion, is convincing Hamilton Seattle is the place to be. In the end, I don't see the player strongly considering the Mariners when there are at least a handful of expected contenders banging down his door. Not to mention the probability that someone will be willing to go six or eight guaranteed seasons.
offseason-target:-josh-hamilton
Comments
The following 15 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: johnbeck1000 on 11-07-2012 23:58:53 I like Hamilton personally due to his personal battles but not sure how I'd feel about the M's signing him to a long term deal unless it was incentive laden and around 5 years.. |
| 2. By: Tackeret on 11-08-2012 08:03:38 There has always been something about Hamilton that I didn't like. It always seems like everything was not his fault, from the 3rd base coach getting him thrown out at home to not being able to hit in the daytime because he has blue eyes. Quick look at his WAR, excluding the high and low, he is basically averaging a 3+ WAR for his career. He is looking for $25M per, though the Cameron rule of thumb that a free agent cost per WAR is typically in the neighborhood of $5M per WAR. In summary, it just seems like whoever signs Hamilton is going to over pay him, unless he is close to the $15-20M per season range, and that doesn't seem likely. |
| 3. By: Edman on 11-08-2012 09:39:50 I'd be onboard to sign Hamilton, if he's willing to come to Seattle. As a lefthanded hitter with five-tool capability, he'd fit into Safeco, and right field. Risk? Absolutely, but that's the price you pay. If it reaches $30 million a year, no way! But, around the $25 million a year mark per year, I'd be onboard. The key would be the number of years. If he wants seven years, that's a big risk. But, if you want to play with the big boys, you have to take a few risks. I'd also go after Jason Bay, on a minimal contract. He's already being paid by the Mets, so he's not likely to make big demands. And, I think there is som interest in Seattle for him. He has some ties to the NW. Worse that happens, he fails. If he regains some of his form, he could add some offense in LF. No, he's not a great defender, but Seattle has defensive guys who could be late inning replacements. With the fences coming in, you don't have the same defensive requirements. And as far as Dave Cameron's WAR, it's absolutely too black and white to use it as a tool. Yes, it's a consideration. But what Hamilton would bring to Seattle goes beyond a mathmatical equation. |
| 4. By: diderot on 11-08-2012 10:22:54 I would stay far, far away from this guy. Why don't we call the 'off field problems' what they are--the guy is a (not too successfully) recovering drug addict who requires a full time babysitter during the season, who has relapsed during offseasons, and who, by his own admission, 'loses focus' during the season. His wildly gyrating performance last year proves that. Everything that Prince Fielder is in terms of reliability Hamilton is not. There is a reason the Rangers want him out of town as soon as possible. Don't get me wrong--I sincerely hope that every substance abuser finds a way out. But I wouldn't want to bet nine figures that it happens. |
| 5. By: dewey on 11-08-2012 10:58:30 Hamiltons talents our second to not many but if Jack goes after him and signs him his job is on the line and as smart as alot of us out here thinks Jack is that might not be a good move the guy has made quite a few mistakes off the field allready and one big one he could get suspended for along time is it worth the risk for Jack and his job? |
| 6. By: maqman on 11-08-2012 11:19:17 I hate albatross contracts and their aftereffects but I can still visualize Hamilton's performance in the Home Run Derby. That was one of my top ten memories in nearly 60 years of watching pro baseball. If they could get him for 5/$125MM I would want them to do it, but any more than that just could not be justified. He's the only MOTO stick out there and he would draw a crowd. If Bay would sign a minor league contract with a STI then okay but he's a long shot to have much value. |
| 7. By: Rudolf on 11-08-2012 11:30:58 I distinctly remember these types of statements ^^ last year w/ Fielder, i.e. "if we could get him for 5/125, or 6/160, then I would do it." Yeah, Fielder got 9/214. Pujols got 10/254. All this talk of cheap salaries is just cheap talk. Hamilton and all of his troubles are going to get PAID like a free agent superstar. |
| 8. By: Edman on 11-08-2012 12:01:16 Clearly, a contract would be structured such that he violates terms related to his past, the contract is null and void. I can't see any team giving him a pass on his past. dewey, Jack's butt is on the line with every signing, draft pick, free agent signing, etc., so it's silly to try to add it as a new element. His butt is on the line if they don't show improvment in the win column too. |
| 9. By: rjfrik on 11-08-2012 12:07:48 Over on ESPN they have the Hot Stove going on and are profiling the American West and the M's. Dan Zymborski and Zips has us next year projecting out at 70 wins. Ouch. We need a lot of improvement. I would sign Haren, Melky, and Hafner and explore a trade option. |
| 10. By: MikeyM on 11-08-2012 15:18:24 Hamilton's career Slugging percentage at Safeco Field is .408 Ichiro's career Slugging percentage at Safeco Field is .416 Nick Swisher's career Slugging percentage at Safeco Field is . . . .538 |
| 11. By: qwerty on 11-08-2012 17:57:32 #2 Tackeret: FYI, the blue eyes thing has some merit. I have blue eyes and I'm quite sensitive to sun w/out sunglasses. Sun makes me sneeze. I'm told that's a blue'eyes trait. You don't have to change your opinion of JH, but thought I'd let you know. |
| 12. By: Tackeret on 11-08-2012 18:16:12 #11 I too have blue eye. My point is more to the fact that I severely doubt he is the only blue eyed player in MLB. It is more to the point that he is the only player who that I have heard use that excuse to explain poor performances. Here is a good item to look at regarding the whole intraocular effect. http://www.realscience.us/2011/06/29/baseballs-curse-of-the-baby-blues/ Lets not forget that Mickey Mantle, Mark Grace, and Shoeless Joe all had blue eyes...and each played more day games then most players do now a days. |
| 13. By: Paul Martin on 11-08-2012 18:28:57 No way I'd go over 5 years, and we would have to WAY OVER PAY to get him here. No big free agent excites me this year. M's will likely just pick up a couple mid level free agents, let the kids develop, and go big in free agency next year. |
| 14. By: sexymarinersfan on 11-08-2012 18:32:53 While I would love to have Josh Hamilton on this team, it wouldn't be for what he's asking for. I'd rather invest that money towards Greinke and another pitcher like Edwin Jackson or Anibal Sanchez. That would allow the FO to trade some of their younger pieces for a proven hitter like Headley or Allen Craig, or maybe even Wil Myers. It just seems to me like there are better options in the SP FA market than hitting. |
| 15. By: dewey on 11-08-2012 23:30:25 #8 Thanks again Edman for ripping me i guess a 100 million dollar contract is just like any drafted player ..uggggh no the draft total for all players is 7.5 million so your off there..a 100 million dollar player is 3 times what the bag of shit Figgins cost so yes Edman it is completly diffrent giving a guy who has been a drug addict and problem player that money then anything you mentioned..Comtracts our structred what way Texas never had onne and he had all them issues before they got him? We will win 75 and Chuck and Howie will bring in there next stiff to take the blame its been that way since Lou and Gillick left and we have sucked ever since i guess on only the fans care about out winning? |
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