| By Adam H. Wong |  | By 11-10-2012 |
The Seattle Mariners' search for offense has extended into the offseason with several candidates, both from the shallow crop of available free agents and the trade market, serving as possibilities.There are always reasons why deals are possible and why they won't happen. Some players fit, some don't. Among those that do, a few may fit better than others. The trade and financial costs are also major factors. Here, we'll dig into those factors, as well as analyze the potential impact of the player in question.
Check out previous reports on Offseason Targets here.
Let's talk trade target Jacoby Ellsbury.
What Jacoby Ellsbury brings
Jacoby Ellsbury had a career year in 2011 where he led the league in fWAR over the likes of Matt Kemp and Jose Bautista. If it weren't for Justin Verlander's dominant campaign, Ellsbury would have won the MVP.
He makes good contact and has some pop -- how much depends on which season you believe is the outlier -- but when he's healthy is an above-average offensive force, perhaps more. The leadoff hitter and centerfielder is a plus runner with plus range, but does not throw well, making him a solid defensive outfielder but with one barb in the armor.
The 29-year-old missed significant time with injuries quite a bit in two of the past three seasons, thanks to freak collisions, but is among the league's best table setters when healthy, capable of .350 or better on-base percentages and 40-50 stolen bases.
In addition, Ellsbury lacks a platoon split. In his career against righties, his triple-slash shows at .296/.349/.454, and while facing lefties, he's batting .298/.350/.412, more than holding his own and providing true blue everyday value.
Contract
Ellsbury is arbitration eligible one final time this winter before hitting the open market a year from now. After earning just over $8 million in 2012, the former Oregon State star is likely to get a one-year deal for 2013 worth more up to, and possibly beyond, the $10 million range.
In free agency, the Scott Boras client is certain to seek the huge dollars. If he has a good year in '13, we could see Ellsbury try to start the bidding at $100 million.
Trade Cost
If 2011 was any indication of Ellsbury's ceiling, he might be one of the premiere players in the sport. Putting the five-tools tag on him might be a bit extreme, but if he plays up to his potential he could be an occasional MVP contender and perennial all-star.
That being said, Boston GM Ben Cherington would be in quite an interesting situation if the outfielder's name comes up in trade talks between now and the July 31 trade deadline. Ellsbury is essentially a rental, but it might be a sell-low scenario for the Sox due to Ellsbury's injury track record.
It's probably too risky to move a top prospect for one year of any player, especially in regards to the Mariners who have needs that go beyond Ellsbury's likely future value.
The Mariners don't have the position-player depth to package a deal around the likes of Nick Franklin or Stefen Romero. If they want to dance with Boston, it's going to have to be centered around something the 2013 Red Sox can use to win right away, perhaps including a bullpen arm. Boston is unlikely to deal Ellsbury this winter for prospects, barring a blow-away offer.
Why would Seattle?
A healthy Ellsbury is an immediate upgrade to any of the club's three outfield spots and he can be placed anywhere in the lineup. He may not seem like the ideal cleanup hitter, but if he's hitting ahead of of players who get on base, a la Dustin Ackley or Kyle Seager, he would drive in more than his fair share of runs, just as he did in '11.
With Franklin Gutierrez's contract expiring after this coming season and no clear answer down on the farm, the M's are without a long-term centerfielder. Getting Ellsbury into the fold could solve that. The problem is, it's going to cost talent and tons of money to extend his contract to keep him around.
Why would Boston?
If clubs call Cherington and offer the right package based on players that can help the Red Sox right away, Ellsbury could be changing uniforms this offseason. Another scenario that could come to fruition is if the Sox find another answer in center field -- B.J. Upton, Denard Span, Shane Victorino, Michael Bourn? -- and a club is willing to part with a couple of good prospects, Ellsbury could be dealt to cover other areas of need within the organization.
The timing of the deal could dictate the chances of it being pushed through, since the Red Sox are looking to jump back into contention in 2013 and any trade they make will have to make them better on the field immediately.
Conclusion
It's hard to find a trade scenario where Seattle and Boston match up well. The Mariners farm is deepest in pitching and up-the-middle position players, but so is Boston's witg few exceptions. With the M's expecting to contend by 2014, it doesn't make much sense for them to nab Ellsbury for a year unless they plan to resign him -- and we've already noted what that could entail.
offseason-target:-jacoby-ellsbury
Comments
The following 3 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: Rudolf on 11-10-2012 21:21:38 Els is a great target for 2014 if he can prove 2011 wasn't a fluke. He'll get 150 million if he can, but he's one of the few guys who could be worth it. |
| 2. By: iheartfelix on 11-11-2012 05:03:22 How does Ellsbury compare to Gordon in terms of trade cost? |
| 3. By: maqman on 11-11-2012 10:13:36 As with Choo, another Boras client, all you will get is a one year rental and they will be off to greener bank accounts. You can't build sustainability that way. |
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