Prospect Insider - Offseason Target: Grady Sizemore

Offseason Target: Grady Sizemore

By Alex Carson

By 10-29-2012

The Seattle Mariners' search for offense has extended into the offseason with several candidates, both from the shallow crop of available free agents and the trade market, serving as possibilities.

There are always reasons why deals are possible and why they won't happen. Some players fit, some don't. Among those that do, a few may fit better than others. The trade and financial costs are also major factors. Here, we'll dig into those factors, as well as analyze the potential impact of the player in question.

We've already tackled a few of the possibilities:

Shin-Soo Choo
Brett Lawrie
Nick Swisher

Now, Grady Sizemore.

What Grady Sizemore brings
Grady Sizemore is a local product from Cascade High School in Everett, who has long been on wish lists of fans when discussing potential upgrades for the Seattle Mariners. Sizemore, 30, reportedly met with the club last winter before settling on a one-year pact to give it another go with the Cleveland Indians. He never got that chance, having spent the entire year on the disabled list with a back injury.

Before his onslaught of DL stints since 2009, Sizemore was a solid defender while being a big offensive threat. He was in the MVP conversation for awhile in 2007 and 2008, but how much of that production may come back after missing all of 2012, more than half of 2011 and playing in just 104 games since the end of the 2009 season -- with back and knee problems -- is unclear.

Trying to predict Sizemore's future production would be extremely difficult, given his ailments and the chronic nature of them. Considering his health record, however, he could be signed relatively cheap with little guaranteed and incentives for plate appearances. Should he be healthy enough to give a club a couple Wins Above Replacement, he could be a bargain.

The Mariners are expected to look for outfield upgrades this winter, but Sizemore may not be on the top of their list, since the team already has performance and health issues among their current crop of grass patrolmen, namely Franklin Gutierrez.

Contract
Sizemore enters the winter as a free agent. Last off-season, he flirted with the M's and the Boston Red Sox -- another team which, again, could get involved -- before staying put with the Tribe.

Indians' General Manager Chris Antonetti recently stated the club's willingness to bring Sizemore back. However, he noted it would require "much less of an investment from what we made in the past."

Surely the Indians may be looking for something of a discount, but it's going to be tough for Sizemore and his agent, Joe Urbon, to attract big dollars this offseason.

Should the Mariners get involved, I'd expect it to cost them somewhere in the neighborhood of $1.5 million with escalators pushing the deal into the $5-6 million range.

Why would Seattle?
The Mariners are not only in need of better outfielders, they're also in need of depth. Gutierrez cannot be counted on to stay healthy. While Michael Saunders made strides in 2012, the rest of the picture is a bit hazy. Should Gutierrez go down with injury, the Mariners simply can't roll out the likes of Casper Wells or Trayvon Robinson out there on a regular basis and expect drastically improved results.

The club could still go out and sign a better regular option for right field and make room for Sizemore to contribute in a limited role. Not playing every day and facing optimal matchups could maximize Sizemore's value without triggering the upper-end of potential escalations in his contract. And if he warrants more time, the incentives will be well worth it.

Conclusion
While Sizemore isn't a lock for health or production in 2013, a low-cost deal could result in decent dividends and may be ideal should the club strike out on bigger names. On days where a right-handed hurler is on the bump, Sizemore and his lefty bat could spell Franklin Gutierrez in center, or play left with Saunders sliding to the middle. He could even see some time at DH.

If he performs and forces his way into the lineup more, it would present a problem that Eric Wedge and the Mariners would welcome.

Sizemore shouldn't be viewed -- or paid -- as the upgrade the team's outfield sorely needs. He should, however, be considered on a low-risk deal that gives the club a little more versatility and outfield depth.

offseason-target:-grady-sizemore

Comments
The following 12 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: furlong on 10-29-2012 14:42:33
I believe Seattle should investigate signing the Milk Man He is far more talented and healthy than these other folks.

2. By: Alex Carson on 10-29-2012 15:02:39
furlong - Agreed. Though, Sizemore would be more of a complimentary piece. His addition would actually be better if the Mariners got a guy like Melky, since it would add a solid starter and depth.

3. By: bavasisabum on 10-29-2012 15:18:03
Sizemore never crossed my mind this offseason but I kinda like the idea. As long as they get another above average outfield bat this offseason a Sizemore/Guti platoon could work out nice and cheap. Limiting their playing time and maybe it takes a little longer till they get hurt or they rotate injury's. If both get hurt then you can look at the trade market if the seasons going well.

Back injury's don't generally go away so I don't expect him to make it too far into the season but if he makes it 1/2 or even a 1/3 of the way through the season he should be worth the money. Local guy to boot. Don't see alot of downside unless they are planning on adding 2 big bats in the outfield which i'll believe when I see.

4. By: Alex Carson on 10-29-2012 15:21:50
Pretty much how I feel, bavasisabum. If they only add one, Sizemore is a good fit. If they add two, it'll be too crowded.

5. By: rjfrik on 10-29-2012 15:31:07
I wouldn't mind Sizemore on the cheap.

But as the rest of you, the guy I really really want is Melky. Melky plus Sizemore would be a solid get for the OF.

Add a LH DH/1B type and I think it would be a great off season.

6. By: Edman on 10-29-2012 15:46:32
Agree. If you can get him cheap enough, it's worth a shot. But, it had better not come at the expense of one of our top five or six prospects. He's not worth that kind of risk.

7. By: bavasisabum on 10-29-2012 16:02:51
OT: on the Swisher idea. I like Swisher but not anywhere near what he's going to get. The markets inflated so much the last few years, guess I don't know what players are worth anymore. He seems like a 3/36, 4/40 type player. Dave Cameron's talking about 7/100 being a good idea.

That sound's insane to me. Good not allstar type player should not be getting that type of offer I wouldn't think. I always thought of him as a little better version of Jack Cust with less SO/HR and a little higher average.

Wouldn't bet on him aging well either. Bats not exactly lightning quick or GG D at age 31. Walks are nice but Ryan and Cust take walks, doesn't make them good hitters. Add the 12th pick plus the money, he sounds like an awful option.

Hamilton's the only player it makes sense to surrender the draft pick. Trade route seems a better option then spending on the other FA bats. Sure you have to give talent to get it but ur also bringing in the talent at pick 12 so when you think about it that way it makes trading the type of talent it would take for a bat easier to stomach.

8. By: Jerry on 10-29-2012 16:30:37
I don't think you'd even have to give him a guaranteed contract or roster spot.

I'd imagine something like Millwood's contract last year, which included a spring training invite and $1 mil if he made the club.

I don't think any club would waste a roster spot for Sizemore at this point. The guy has played 100 games in the last THREE years. He is exactly the type of player who gets a non-guaranteed contract with a solid salary - maybe 2 mil or so - if he makes the club. Basically, if he is healthy enough to play, he's on the team. The M's could put in significant incentives based on playing time.

This would be a great low-risk, high-reward addition.

Sizemore, Melky, plus another buy-low type - I'm thinking Domonic Brown still - would be a good offseason. If they did that, they would have lots of options: Saunders, Cabrera, Guti, Brown, and Sizemore, in roughly descending order of reliability. Plus Wells, thats good depth.

9. By: rrwrayiii on 10-29-2012 16:43:06
I like Swisher too, but not at the contract he will get. Yes, you pay for guys like him with their abilities, but paying $90 million or rough neighborhood for a guy who's hit .267 in his 4 season in New York, which plays in a bandbox doesn't really excite me. Even with the fences coming in, I could see him dropping 10 points on his average which brings the issue of his contract being worth the production, and leaving the prime years of his career as well. For $10-$12 million per year, no longer than 5 years, I would be interested, but beyond that kind of decreases my interest. I'd rather overpay Hamilton, 5 years $125million.

For Sizemore, the guy has barely cracked 100 games in the last 3 seasons combined. Unless its like $1 million taking a flyer, I'd rather stick with the injury prone CF we currently have on payroll.

10. By: Timberwolf on 10-29-2012 17:45:15
Sizemore has pretty huge upside with an enormous injury risk. This is a call that needs to be made by the medical staff more than the baseball people.

There may not be a lot of options to roll the dice on guys, so this has to be a possibility.

11. By: bavasisabum on 10-29-2012 17:58:04
Meant to say qualifying offer FA bats on my post above sorry.

12. By: maqman on 10-30-2012 12:16:17
I'm okay with a low guarantee/good pay for results contract. I think he will avoid Safeco and look for a bandbox ballpark with a contender, like the Phillies or Texas, to enable him to post some good numbers and get a longer term deal.

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