Prospect Insider - Offseason Target: Giancarlo Stanton

Offseason Target: Giancarlo Stanton

By Jason A. Churchill

By 11-09-2012

The Seattle Mariners' search for offense has extended into the offseason with several candidates, both from the shallow crop of available free agents and the trade market, serving as possibilities.

There are always reasons why deals are possible and why they won't happen. Some players fit, some don't. Among those that do, a few may fit better than others. The trade and financial costs are also major factors. Here, we'll dig into those factors, as well as analyze the potential impact of the player in question.

Check out previous reports on Offseason Targets here.

Let's get bold and discuss Giancarlo Stanton.

What Giancarlo Stanton brings
Stanton is a 23-year-old budding superstar that led the National League in slugging percentage in 2012 (.608) and blasted 37 home runs in just 501 plate appearances. He possesses the best raw power in the game and it's quickly developed into game power surpassed by no other hitter in the sport.

He also batted .290 this past season, despite a slight dip in walk rate and an increase in strikeout rate. Some luck is surely involved there, but Stanton is equipped with the plate skills to hit for some average -- at least to league-average levels -- and his on-base percentages should continue to rise from the .350 career mark he'll bring into 2013 and the .361 he posted in 2012.

The former second-round pick -- yes, it's true, the Mariners selected Denny Almonte one pick before the Marlins tabbed Stanton in 2007 -- is well on his way to being the premier power bat in baseball, if he's not there already, and it's not out of the question that a fully-healthy season results in 50-plus home runs as early as 2013.

He's a strong defender, too, at least while he's healthy, offering above-average range and a 65 throwing arm. The range may have peaked already and Stanton could lose a step as he matures physically and adds natural bulk to his 6-foot-5, 245-pound frame, but he's a superb athlete and isn't likely to decline significantly before his 30s.

Stanton is an average, perhaps slightly above-average runner, but he's not likely to be a factor in the stolen base department. Despite his size, however, he can go from first to third on most singles to the outfield and is far from a base clogger.

Ultimately, Stanton is an impact player without major weakness that should content for, if not win, a few MVPs over the next eight years.

Contract
Stanton will not be arbitration eligible until after 2013, but might be in line for an extension as soon as this offseason. He's represented by the Wasserman Media Group, an agency the Mariners are very familiar with -- they represent Brendan Ryan with whom the club will be discussing the future of the shortstop this offseason, as well as the club's third-round pick, Edwin Diaz -- and could get a raise, some security and a more solid place in the Marlins' plans.

Long term, if Stanton hits free agency after his sixth year of service -- 2016 -- he could literally break the bank and be the next $200 million player.

Trade Cost
Acquiring Stanton via trade from the Marlins may be as close to impossible as it gets. They are a team in a strange place in their development on the field; they have some veterans making money, such as lefty Mark Buehrle, shortstop Jose Reyes and ace Josh Johnson, but their attempt at buying a playoff run went out the window early in 2012 and they have already cut bait on closer Heath Bell.

The attendance at the new ballpark did not spike and stick, suggesting they aren't flush with payroll flexibility and will need to rely very much on their farm system and key trades to get to where they need to be.

Stanton is by far their best player, but if a club came along willing to fill Miami's needs across the board, there's at least a chance they'd listen. If that team were to be Seattle, the conversation would have to start with Taijuan Walker and may need to include as many as four other Top 10 prospects, or some big league talent mixed into the package.

Why would Miami?
If I am Miami, however, I'm not sure Taijuan Walker, Nick Franklin, James Paxton, John Hicks and either Kyle Seager or Michael Saunders is enough for me to part with Stanton. There is an element of quantity over quality involved, despite the presence of three average or better major leaguers, including one potential No. 1 or 2 starter in Walker.

In a year, however, such a mix might suffice, as the only one of the group that won't likely see the majors by 2014 is Hicks, and of Stefen Romero or Brad Miller is necessary, so be it. It's a lot to give up, but Miami is in no position otherwise to consider moving Stanton at this stage.

In order to get it done, a club has to litter Miami with impact talent, and most or all of it has to be near-ready or current young, cheap big-league players. Such a deal could makeover the Marlins into a contender sooner than the track they are on by themselves, though, so it's not completely out of the realm of possibility.

Why would Seattle?
Even considering the likely cost to acquire such a player, adding Stanton, plus another solid bat, to the everyday lineup instantly changes the dynamic at Safeco Field. If we assume for a second that the M's also sign or trade for a Nick Swisher, Melky Cabrera or Justin Morneau, their lineup, all of a sudden, projects to be top 5 in the American League.

Giving up loads of talent would hurt, but when else will the Mariners ever have a chance to get such an impact player that has proven himself to the tune of two-plus seasons in the majors?

Conclusion
The only more shocking transaction than the Mariners signing Josh Hamilton to a deal worth well over $100 million during the offseason would be the club trading for Stanton this winter. The idea is the definition of a long shot, but I will say this: In a year, the situation in Miami could alter their position to the point where moving Stanton made sense and acquiring mostyl near-ready prospects is the best route.

Until then, this is a pipe dream's pipe dream, but it's asking too much of baseball fans in Seattle to avoid wishing upon a star. Imagining Stanton crushing pitches into the upper deck at the new Safeco is simply delightful. For now, it'll remain a dream.

offseason-target:-giancarlo-stanton

Comments
The following 19 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: docsmith on 11-09-2012 04:02:06
My "arm-chair" philosophy on team building is more based on building the entire roster around average to well above average players maybe with a superstar or near superstar at a couple of positions. But solid players at all 25 spots (definitely all the starting spots) and eliminate weak links/holes.

That said, if I woke up one morning at we had traded half our farm for Stanton. I think the fan in me would just smile. If we have enough answers at other roster spots, it could even be the right move.

2. By: davidyfsu on 11-09-2012 06:26:01
Hi Jason & team

Jon Paul Morosi of FoxSports wrote an article last night that the Reds might be willing to deal 1 of their young SS for a Closer or a OF. Would the M's be a match and what do you think of the Red's Zack Cozart and Didi Gregorius?

http://mlbbuzz.yardbarker.com/blog/mlbbuzz/article/jocketty_reds_could_trade_shortstop_this_winter/12165043

3. By: greentunic on 11-09-2012 07:42:06
Stanton is perhaps the single player I'd most like to have with the exception of maybe Trout. I can't imagine the backlash that even the relatively weak Marlin fanbase would unleash if they were to trade him, no matter what the package was.

I imagine they view him as we view Felix.

4. By: masonb on 11-09-2012 08:20:32
I'd say call the Marlins and up and tell them to name their price. He's cheap right now, so you could conceivably trade half the farm for him and then throw a lot of money at Greinke to offset the SP loss. This is where having a very deep farm system comes in handy. This team could trade two of Walker/Paxton/Hultzen, and a ton of position prospects and still be fine in the minors.

5. By: Panhead55 on 11-09-2012 09:19:25
We send them Felix and they send us Stanton and Buehrle. Buehrle is included to one, give us a serviceable pitcher, and two, gets Miami out of a bad contract so they can afford Felix. We then have a cost controlled monster bat and we still have our prospects. Then we spend the money and sign Greinke to a 6 or 7 year contract. A rotation of Greinke, Buehrle, Vargas, Iwakuma, and Ramirez and the addition of Stanton to the lineup will allow us to compete and allow more development time for Walker, Paxton, Hulzen, and Maurer.

6. By: Jazz00 on 11-09-2012 10:11:19
Panhead55, I like how you think. That would be a bold move but I like the idea of truly upgrading our hitting instead taking chances on guys resurrecting another year of good hitting because their past their prime. I say call the Marlins up and begin the process of feeling them out.

7. By: maqman on 11-09-2012 11:10:40
Stanton is only a dream but for him or Trout the only answer is who do you want?

8. By: Panhead55 on 11-09-2012 13:09:49
Sometimes you have to make bold moves. Last year at this time we could have traded Felix for Trout and then some. No more.

9. By: Edman on 11-09-2012 14:20:32
More remote than finding gold in a stream. As much as some would like it to happen, it won't, unless Seattle overpays to a point that it hurts more than it helps.

10. By: iheartfelix on 11-09-2012 15:51:27
We should have gone harder after this guy last year. I would have gladly given up Pineda and then some to get Stanton instead of Montero. And yes, I was saying that at the time of the Montero deal.

11. By: iheartfelix on 11-09-2012 15:53:26
It sure makes you wonder doesn't it... If we had gone with Montero instead of Smoak like it looked like we were gonna do, we never wouldn't have had to trade Pineda for him later, and who knows what could have happened.

12. By: Edman on 11-09-2012 17:45:41
iheartfelix, two things.

1. You make a very bold assumption that Florida undervalued Stanton enough that they would have traded him to Seattle.

2. The "what if" game is imperfect. Again, it assumes that all things stay the same in different environments. That's why I don't play that game.

I try not to wonder about things that didn't happen. And I try not to assume that because we would want someone to be a Mariner, doesn't mean they were ever available. Stanton is a major talent, and Florida was never going to make him available, unless it was a big overpay that made since with what they were trying to do.

13. By: iheartfelix on 11-09-2012 18:04:06
Edman,

first of all I'm not saying anything would have happened I'm saying it's interesting to think about what could have happened. One thing is a fact. Had the Mariners traded Cliff Lee for Jesus Montero instead of Justin Smoak they would not have traded Michael Pineda for Jesus Montero... because they would have had him already.

If you don't like to play the "what if game" that's fine, but some people do because some people are just gluttons for Mariners related pain. These are the same people that are still pissed about the Jeff Clement pick and the Adam Jones trade. I believe there is a name for these people... I think they're called fans.

14. By: Wishhiker on 11-09-2012 20:19:40
Way over the top. I'd call them sadists personally.

Let's go that route. So Texas still has Smoak. Nothing saying he doesn't have a decent year there in a more hitter friendly environment. Then gets traded for Pineda. Could be almost exactly the same except worrying about Pineda coming back with Texas to make us regret the deal. Meanwhile Smoak had a decent year with Texas first and it's now another hitter that stopped hitting when they came here. Coulda happened. We even could have given up more to get him.

15. By: CottonmouthKarl on 11-09-2012 22:44:00
Fun Stanton fact of the day: Giancarlo hit 21 home runs in 55 road games in 2012. That's a HR in 38% of road games played, tops in MLB. Also well over 50% oh his hits were XBH's.

Well known fact: He is the strongest everyday hitter in MLB. Probably.

Lesser known fact: Ike Davis is right up there with 59% of his road hits going for extra bases. 43/73 , including 21 road homers. His iso slg% on the road was .305 in 2012. It's time for a scenery change, I'll take Ike for a fraction of Stanton's cost in a trade.

16. By: dawgncarolina on 11-09-2012 23:28:53
Miami wouldn't deal Stanton straight up for Felix, let alone Stanton plus.

Stanton's a superstar who isn't paid like one. Not getting him without a ridiculous package.

17. By: Panhead55 on 11-10-2012 00:15:44
Buehrle is not a plus. If Miami could walk away from his contract they'd do so in a New York heartbeat. He is due to make $11mil in 2013, $18mil in 2014, and $19mil in 2015. He is nothing more than a very high priced, aging, declining, innings eater. I included him in the my suggested trade so that Miami could stomach Felix's salary. Including Buehrle in the trade scenario sweetened the pot for Miami not Seattle.

18. By: dawgncarolina on 11-10-2012 00:43:45
Got ya, should have looked into it more closely. In that event, you're on the right track. Well done.

19. By: Panhead55 on 11-10-2012 09:21:04
Thanks Dawg. Let's also not forget that owner Jeff Loria added a ton of payroll last year much to his regret. Now he'd like to reverse those trades if possible. He got rid of Heath Bell but had to send cash as well. He'd love nothing better than to shed Beuhrle's albatros of a contract. I think if we offered Felix for Stanton and were willing to take on Buehrle and his salary Loria would certainly listen. GM Hill would probably say no, but Loria has been known to override his GM.

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